19 April
CATCHING THE MARKET TURN AND PROFITING
We were able to short local and global markets on the turn. Starting with CBA on 12 April with one of our Daily CFD Systems (DRS1) which is advantageous in that it trades both sides of the market in a continuous stream. This system has been very successful and we are happy to teach you this winning system in our 72 hour free, full, trial of our service. If you haven't registered on our site then do so and the access is instant. If you have already registered, send us an email and we'll grant you another chance to view our latest trades, trading systems and strategies. This week we also highlight samples of our other system (Daily Robo System2)
Included this week is an Interview with a member who explains how he uses the service to trade CFDs; we look at the EURUSD and Oil in the International Commodities; and our last weekend's EarlyBird Report with video. Plenty of good reading and viewing!
EVER BEEN AT A TRADERS GATHERING AND WANTED YOUR PUZZLES SOLVED?
Getting lost in a crowd is easy these days. Especially frustrating because as a trader you're otherwise often home alone! That's why I include a 30 minute trader to trader conversation when you take up our 1Month Trial – you won't miss out on having your unique problems looked at from an experienced eye. As well as the coaching, our site is full of interesting information and trading tools, just ask if you need a hand.
See you next week. Pete.
PS. Call anytime: 0434 288 367 or 02 4448 6020.
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01 ASX TRADES – ASX200: Correcting, CBA: Currently Shorting
ASX200 18 April Daily Chart
The 38.2% retracement should see the first support, this also lines up with 4800 (mTL8) and 4772
(72) this is the support area we can look to for support.
There is a gap at 4759 that should also be brought in to the picture as a price point target
The Banks have the clearest wave count of the last current top so we will look into their structures
during this corrective process as the XJO and SPI have unclear structures.
CBA 12 April Intraday Chart
Elliott Wave five waves up, now the beginnings of the ABC correction the first support is the
52/51.72 area which will see a bounce and support, the second depending on the US markets is the
61.8% at 51.00
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02 ASX CFDs – Two of Our Daily Trading Systems Performing Well
The first table show the position of CBA as outlined in the intro of the newsletter
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OPEN POSITIONS
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Code
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Date
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Long/Short
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Entry
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Reverse
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Profit Targets
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25% profit 52
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CBA
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12-Apr
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SHORT
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52.77
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52.69
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The table below shows the open positions with another of our daily CFD systems (DRS2) in action:
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OPEN POSITIONS
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Code
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Date
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Long/Short
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Entry
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Stop
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Action
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Profit Targets
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CTX
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14-Apr
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SHORT
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14.62
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14.23
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AMEND
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MCR
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14-Apr
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SHORT
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1.34
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1.33
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AMEND
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Gap Rule
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SEK
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14-Apr
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LONG
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6.71
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1.72
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HVN
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14-Apr
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SHORT
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2.84
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2.89
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CGF
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13-Apr
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SHORT
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4.86
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4.91
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ERA
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13-Apr
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SHORT
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7.64
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6.44
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AMEND
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FBU
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13-Apr
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SHORT
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6.96
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6.94
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AMEND
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25.00 50%
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LEI
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13-Apr
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SHORT
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28.82
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25.03
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25% 2.30
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OST
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13-Apr
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SHORT
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2.32
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2.36
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25% 1.50
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OZL
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13-Apr
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SHORT
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1.61
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1.535
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AMEND
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03 The Weekend's EarlyBird Report – 18 April
Key Market Drivers
Dow Jones Index +0.46% 12,341
US Dollar Index +0.20% 74.82
US Spot Gold (Globex) 1487
WTI Oil (Globex) 108
Copper (Globex) 425
US BHP -0.62% 199.80
Base Metals: Mixed
AUDUSD 1.0564
EURUSD 1.4427
SPI 4879
NEW YORK Dow Jones News
U.S. stocks rose Friday as investors were encouraged by the latest round of economic data,
although a lower-than-expected profit from Google weighed on the technology sector.
Commodities
Commodities
US Spot Gold (Globex Futures June) 1487
In terms of position trading, profits should be banked above SG2 1480 – 1490 as the 1500
is only going to get tricky. The 1500 has been the target to trade to, there is a high
probability of three things occurring, 1. A reaction at arrive of 1500. 2. An overshoot of
1500 that will swing back below 1500. 3. A failing at around above /below 1500 creating
a more serious top. It’s normal to be attached to a market that has delivered pocket money,
but the affair is over, you will only get caught out if you don’t let go of it.
That said, if there’s going to be a high above the level, then 1530 which is subgroup1 or
the midpoint 15050 if this is the case then the corrective pattern will unfold into 1500.
If one day after the correction across 1500 becomes support then we can look at that,
but for now this move into 1500 is an ending situation not the beginning you would only
be playing with fire.
Oil WTI (Globex Futures) 110
Well you know the situation here, we just have to wait and see the price play out at 110.
The price will either fail from the 110 or the larger abc pattern will play out with eventually
the price finding support on 110 after the third swing, the move up is the second swing
abc correction. But the first thing is will the price fail the retest here and do we short it.
If so then your skill to recognise the failing in a series of smaller retests or the breaking
of 108 and that becoming the retested resistance, there are many ways to work it, but it
must be your way that has meaning to you, that’s the important ingredient your thoughts
connecting with what you are seeing.
Base Metals
US Spot Prices (24HR in l/b)
US Copper: Last: 4.23-
US Nickel: Last: 11.91+
US Zinc: Last: 1.07+
US Aluminium Last: 1.19+
Copper (Globex Futures) 425
I think the wave (iv) is finished and the new low may also be wave (v) completed reading for a
move up. But I can’t say with confidence because wave fours are more complicated than
women and we are too simple know, either way we could still be in wave four, but the price
won’t be going far from the 430 – 420 in the next few sessions, so by then we will have a
better understanding of the pattern and that is, has the five waves down from the last high
(450) being finished and ready for the abc rally above 430 then down again.
Forex
US Dollar Futures (c) DXY 75.03
Back above 75, so we need to wait and see if this is just a corrective rally wave two that will end in
the next session, this is the same for the Euro as it move down as a corrective wave two or a larger
wave four corrective pattern, so it would now need to work higher from here. However in due course
the Dollar down and the Euro up. I though the square number 144 would play a part and it may not
be over yet.
EURUSD
TradingLevels: The move down in the last session appears to be corrective in nature so we
should see a move up from here, however it did pull back a long way meaning there is a
reasonable risk the wave four is still in play
Elliott Wave: The move down over nigh is either wave two correction or it’s just part of the whole
top as a wave four and therefor still unfolding
Trade Strategy: keep trading ranges to sublevels until the larger picture pattern is clearer
AUDUSD
TradingLevels: You need your knowledge and skill to trade either side of SG2 10565 I 10572 I 10580
Elliott Wave: Yesterday we were looking at the move up from the 12 April as a Wave B, this still could be the case.
Expect a topping process in SG2 and 106
Trade Strategy: The SG2 10565 I 10572 I 10580 is what you need to trade through as each level as support or resistance, keeping the trading ranges small like this because the larger pattern can be a Wave B high at the 10572
Indices
Dow Jones Futures CFD 12,342
TradingLevels: Resistance SG2 12,365 I 12,372 I 12,380 and supply at 12,400
This is the resistance zone and the place to look for short trade set ups
Elliott Wave: ABC rally as wave B or (ii) we should see the selling moving in around these levels
Trade Strategy: If this is an ABC rally and its going to end around SG2 then look for short trades,
but makes sure you are working failed retests at any smaller level and controlling the risk because
you are working against one degree of trend, the one up from the 12,165 area. If we are wrong then
the price will push above 12,400 looking for support
S&P500 CFDs 1,319
TradingLevels: looking at a abc rally that should finish above the 1320 and then head on down through 1300
Elliott Wave: The 61.8% retracement is 1325, the resistance is 1320 Expect selling over the next sessions
Trade Strategy: Look to scale in short when you can recognise the 1320 as retested resistance
FTSE 100 CFD 5998
TradingLevels: Same -The price is retesting 6000 but has not rejected this level
Elliott Wave: This is the interesting part as the whole move down is now in three waves ABC? Or a series of waves ones and two’s for the downside
Trade Strategy: If over the next two sessions the 6000 looks like it is becoming resistance, look to scale in short with the target at 5900, this is just a guess, but whatever happens be on the right side of 6000 and the key is the small intraday retests of 6000
SPI Futures 4900
TradingLevels: Being under 4900 swings the bias bearish, confirmation will be if SG2 breaks down if this is the case be on the right side of 4872
Elliott Wave: I can’t give a clear Elliott count at the moment
Trade Strategy: Looking for a turn down in US Indices as they complete their abc rallies, was interesting to see this market not moving up with the US last night…
Today's Summary
The abc rally in the US Indices when according to plan and now they are very very close to being completed, and then should turn down in the next US session, so we need to be mindful of this as it presents a reasonable probability of our local market seeing a red week from Tue onwards. So Monday close would be the time to bring the stops up extra close and set up more short Robo trades for the coming week.
Gold will stall now at 1500, Crude will struggle at 110 and Copper has a larger bearish bias in play, so my two bobs worth is weakness ahead, so we need to roll with this, this means tightening stops to within reason and setting up Robo trades that can simply be trigged IF then market turn further down, this is the time to do this as the Dow and The SP500 are in a Wave 2 or Wave B rally.
Wave B rally will see a good week of weakness, whereas a Wave 2 rally will see months of weakness, not sure which one, but it doesn’t really matter of always being right in picking the direction, the main point is being on the right side of the market at the right time and the Robo is great for this type of situation
Today's Trading Quote
Life is not holding a good hand. Life is playing a poor hand well.
Today's Financial Events
Time Currency Detail Forecast Previous
8:45am NZD CPI q/q 1.0% 2.3%
9:01am GBP Rightmove HPI m/m 0.8%
10:30pm CAD Foreign Securities Purchases 11.23B 13.29B
12:00am EUR Consumer Confidence -10 -11
12:00am USD NAHB Housing Market Index 17 17
12:30am USD FOMC Member Fisher Speaks
2:30am USD FOMC Member Fisher Speaks
NOTES:
1. Check the Dividend & Reporting section for your stock on this site before trading.
2. Prices may change as this report is written while markets are closing/trading.
3. Always think things out for yourself, we are only a floor to bounce ideas around.
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04 FOREX – Weakness in EURO Ahead
EURUSD 30 Minute Chart
Tuesday, 19 April 2011 at 2:55:00AM AEST
Guys, first sign of EURUSD weakness in days ahead is already here; a broken trend line from start of 2011. However, we still need to see a daily close below that level, which is such case should provide more weakness of the Euro in days ahead. As such, we will be monitoring the upward bounce very closely for evidence of a corrective move; wave 4 with resistance at 1.4300!!
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05 INT'LCOMMODITES – Oil: Bearish Bias
OIL 1 Hour Chart
Monday, 18 April 2011 at 5:55:00 PM AEST
Oil was up on Friday, but no real change on the price action. A bounce from the 105.25 lows still appears corrective, but likely incomplete structure. We can count five waves up from the wave 1), lows but we know that corrections are NEVER in fives, and as such, at least on more push towards 110-111 region should be seen before a sell-off appears.
We will pay a very close attention to oil prices for evidences of a wave 2) completion, which of course would be an impulsive fall from wave 2) high below the corrective channel support.
For an alternate view, please check out daily charts (Elliott wave counts page)
OIL 4 Hour Chart
Monday, 18 April 2011 at 4:50:00PM AEST
Oil reversed significantly from the highs in the past week, fell down to $105 in impulsive formation. As such, we believe that a significant top is in place on oil with more downside in view once a corrective wave 2) completes, which in fact could already be near completion. If we are on the right track then an impulsive bounce lower should appear which will confirm a downtrend. Critical/invalidation region is at 113.40.
Please check out our daily outlook for an alternate view!. Want to follow more of our Forex and Commodities?
We have Intraday, 4Hourly, Daily and Weekly charts posted for Forex 6prs, Gold, Oil & S&P500
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07 INTERVIEW - Ken shares some of his CFD trading experience!
We strongly believe in sharing knowledge and encourage our members to talk to each other to create a community where you can all benefit and leverage from each others’ experiences.
For our Member Snapshot, we kindly thank Ken for his enthusiasm to volunteer and reveal his secrets. We hope you appreciate his honesty as much as we do.
INTRODUCING KEN, TRADINGLOUNGE ANALYSIS MEMBER FOR 2 YEARS
What's your trading experience? 14 years. I started out using a broker with the banks and after about 6 months, I booted the broker and have been going without ever since. I have a background as a bookmaker, so I'm more familiar with the odds than most!
What do you trade? Shares, CFDs, Warrants, Options
What is your main trading activity? Weekly CFDs trader and longer term shares
How do you utilise the Trading Lounge? I read and watch the EARLYBIRD and read the ASX TtradingLevels to get a good general overview. I then use the recommendations in the ASX Daily and ASX Weekly to find 5-10 CFD trades. Then I refine this list using MACD, RSI and my own technical observations. I take great notice of the daily TradingLounge and it gives me many great options to choose from. Peter sure is smarter than your average bear.
Please share your golden CFD trading rules?
1. Long Entry on an upwards trend
2. Never have more than three positions at any time so your exposure is not too great.
3. If a trade is going up, I let it run with trailing stops
4. Plan the exit... never lose more than $500:
- if a share less than $5: Buy 5000 share CFDs – if it falls 10c, I sell and take a loss
- if share between $5-$10: Buy 4000 share CFDs – if it falls 15c, sell
- if share between $10-$15: Buy 3000 share CFDs – if it falls 20c, sell
- if share greater than $15: Buy 2000 share CFDs – if it falls 30c, get out!
What about past trading experiences?
WORST: One experience with Suncorp where I turned $22 into installment warrants, then they fell to $5, then to $1.
What did you do wrong? It was the GFC crunch that did it!
BEST: 30000 DJ at 3.85, sold options 4 or 5 times and now DJ is at $5 or more.
What did you do right? Sell the option more than the share.
Any parting words of advice? Don't listen too much to other people. Rather, find someone you can go to for proper advice and help, like Peter. Don’t think you’re too smart or clever, and be happy if you’re making $200 a day!
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