21 June
Technical Analysis Report Weekly
Hi Traders
ARE YOU READY?
US markets are having a short term rally before the next move down. Are you ready?
How far will Chinese markets drop? Where are the supports?
What will our local ASX200 do at 4500? Are You Ready?
See our take on US Markets, Local Banks and Resources.
Use our Robo System and TradingLevels to get you on the Right Side at the Right Time!
Art of Trading
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International Commodity focus this week is on Technical Analysis Oil as we predict it will move down.
Thanks for your time and consideration! Rgds, Pete.
PS. Call anytime: 0434 288 367 or 02 4448 6020.
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01 Today's EarlyBird Technical Analysis Report – 21 June
Technical Market Drivers
Dow Jones Index +0.61% 12078
US Dollar Index -0.05% 75.54
US August Gold (Globex) 1540
WTI Oil (Globex) 93
Copper (Globex) 407
US BHP +0.41% 88.91
Base Metals: softer
AUDUSD 1.0570
EURUSD 1.43
SPI 4483
US News Wire
A pledge by European leaders to head off a Greek debt default helped investors push US stocks higher, as the market's sovereign-debt jitters eased notably Monday.
The Dow Jones Industrial Average rose 79 points, or 0.7%, to 12086 in recent trade. The Standard & Poor's 500-stock index added eight points, or 0.6%, to 1279. The Nasdaq Composite climbed 16 points, or 0.6%, to 2633.
Stocks found their footing as European Union leaders expressed confidence at a meeting in Luxembourg that Greece will concede on economic reforms in order to release the next tranche of aid, avoiding a default. Those leaders have no new Greek-debt accord in hand, which leaves investors sensitive to negative sovereign-debt headlines as they push U.S. stocks higher.
The action follows the end of a six-week losing streak for U.S. stocks on Friday. The losing streak has left the Nasdaq Composite in negative territory for the year and sapped other major indexes of much of this year's advance. Money managers used terms like "relief rally" to describe Monday's trading, because it follows stocks' longest losing streaks in years.
US August Gold Futures 1540 Techncial analysis - TradingLevels
The US Dollar will have probably completed its abc correction down for wave 2 at 7530 in the next session. This does create an opportunity for the US Dollar to push up which in turn will place pressure on Gold. The push up in the Dollar will also place pressure on our AUDUSD however this will help at least in the short term to push up the ASX GOLD which we are long on.
The line in the sand for Silver is 36.50 and for Gold the first main point is that the 1530 is the support and, while the price is above this, then it is supported. The previous move down in Gold from the 1550 to 1510 appears to be corrective in structure and therefore a new high should be made, but the bottom line is that the 1530 is required to hold.
Oil WTI (Globex Futures) 93
Oil is following stock and stock has risen over the last few days, this would line up with the five wave down from 102 to 91. We understood the MediumLevel 90 (ML9) is the support and that MinorGroup1 93 I 92 I 91 would create the choppy price action simply because that where the first set of orders sit.
If support is found on top of Group1 93 then the price will retest supply at 95. You could also line this up with the Dow being above or below 12,100 as Oil is following slightly. See this morning's » Video
Base Metals
US Spot Prices (24HR in l/b)
US Copper: Last: 4.09-
US Nickel: Last: 9.89+
US Zinc: Last: 0.98-
US Aluminium Last: 1.22-
Copper (Globex Futures) 407
Same old story, while the price is above the MediumLevel ML4 400 the market is supported and can rally, this leaves our Materials sector following Shanghai and we probably now need to start looking at the copper traded on the Shanghai futures exchange as they are not buying from the over supplied European warehouses
We could say while the price is under 410 the bias has a certain technical weakness, however the MediumLevel carries the weight, the actual structure in Elliott terms is getting very complicated which leaves the thought of the larger pattern being a corrective wave four, basically the same pattern we have had from the start, its just expanding and correcting sideways in overlapping corrective swings.
Forex Technical Analysis Elliott Wave
US Dollar Futures (c) DXY 75.50
The ABC Wave 2 structure down under 76 is nearly completed, perhaps to 7530, this leaves the room for the Euro to push a little higher, the 144 is the main price point in this region. In the resistance the current price is at the old 61.8% retracement level, there is also an overhead trendline acting as resistance
EURUSD
TradingLevels: Work a long trade off the 143, starting with support on 14310 this is the first level in subgroup1 SG1 if there is a push up then use the rest of SG1 levels as support. If the price is going to move down through 143 then simply look for the retest of 143 and weakness look to short. The SG2 and the 14272 is a price point to trade to and use to add and subtract as it settles to becomes support or resistance
Trade Strategy: Using the 4 or 2 Robo is conjunction with the TradingLevel works fine, the next step is learning how to feed positions in and out of the market at certain trigger points, because its how you handle the money that makes you the money, the levels and the Robo can get you into a winning position but you still need to work it to your advantage
AUDUSD Technical Analysis
TradingLevels: Use the SG2 as support or resistance the 10572 is the pivot being on the right side of this is a start. There is also the overhead trendline cutting in to SG2 from the last two highs
Elliott Wave: The 106 is the supply, we expect the price to turn down from here, however if we are wrong then, that would make five wave up from 105 to 106 in the last trend up, so then expect and abc correction into 106 the supply , after the abc at 106 and back above 106 as support then you would scale in through SG1 of 106. On the downside and in line with the current count the short would be under the 10572 as resistance adding when 10565 becomes resistance and the same with the Midpoint 10550 but don’t add any more until 105 is the resistance or at least the price under the level
Trade Strategy: trade the sublevel
Indices
Dow Jones Futures CFD 12,000
TradingLevels: Techncial Analysis
Just starting with the bigger picture, the 12000 is the line in the sand, if the price finds support on 12100, then we should expect a rally to 12300… if the price locks under 11900 then we can expect further downside. So in between this is dam choppy much the same as the ASX200 at 4500. At the moment with the Dow being above 12000 the bias is up, and the likelihood of it getting above 12100 increases. But as you know we also need to consider the Chinese markets too, which the Shanghai Market should continue down to 2500.
Elliott Wave: The rally up from 11900 is in three wave’s i.e. corrective, abc correction.
Trade Strategy: The 12000 is the line in the sand and where the next direction will come from, so you need to be on the right side of this as support or resistance, its where the scaling in of positions begin, even if you trading the ASX or FX
S&P500 CFDs 1,278
TradingLevels: The price is trapped in SG2 1265 I 1272 I 1280 with the 1272 being central as support or resistance and where the next trade should be taken from long or short with the 1272 as support or resistance
Elliott Wave: abc rally to 1280 should see lower price to follow, the 1265 is the trigger
Trade Strategy: work the 1272 and use the 1265 to short and the 1280 to be long
FTSE 100 Futures 5665
TradingLevels: I’m a little unsure of the height of the rally, however a move down under 5680 is the first point of weakness if the 5672 becomes resistance then we can look at a larger bearish picture. If there was a push up then use the support of 5700 to trade off
Elliott Wave: Same - ABC rally now in Wave C and should make a new high above 5730 perhaps to 5750? To complete the ABC rally for Wave 2
Trade Strategy: The move down on the close, and the pattern under 5700 appears bullish corrective, however a move under the 5680 creates more of a bearish pattern. We are looking for a top here at the 5730 however the 5710 may be enough? just be patient until you have a solid support of resistance to work off
SPI CFD Futures 4475
TradingLevels: The 4500 is being established as the resistance.Trade Strategy: The Shanghai and Hong Kong market are under pressure and this pressure is likely to assist the 4500 maintaining as resistance, yes a Greek solution has been patched in and would offer some support for the short term. However if the price finds the 4472 as resistance then you need to be on the right side of this level. If the price finds support on 4500 and the Dow on 12100 and the Shanghai and Heng Seng bounce on open on volume then fine, allow for and small abc correction at 4700 and after three small swings look for support on 4700 and use SG1 to scale in long, but don’t jump the gun you need that support as the price can fail at 4500
11:30am AUD Monetary Policy Meeting Minutes
Technical Analysis Summary
The markets have been weak over the Greek debt, however they have patched in another solution last night, the US markets have been off their lows for three days and move or support above 12100 as support is a trigger higher to 12300.
ASX200 the pattern at 4500 looks corrective meaning the price can drop in line with Shanghai and the Heng Seng after the opening lead from the US markets being up, finding support on 4500 is the answer to being long in the market and short under the SG2 4472.
Oil, expect a short term bounce of 90 to perhaps 95 then down again.
Gold is dancing with its old highs as the US Dollar is still in its correction, once this correction is done the Dollar should push up and place pressure on Gold and the AUDUSD which a move through the 105 will also place pressure on the ASX200 and the Materials Sector, the only supporting factor here is Copper sitting on MediumLevel 400 as support, if this goes we can short the resources.
There is an alternative bullish count for the SP500 and the Euro as these two follow one another and this alternative count is the charts section for the SP500, the Euro would fit in with the SP500 based on a daily trend line support, you need to draw this yourself, but we should be mindful of this trendline support in the Euro and the Wave count on the SP500 Daily and 4 hour chart, because if they are correct we can go up from here and would need to hedge our bets somewhat and the Down finding support on 12100 and the ASX200 on 4500 is a case for this. We would need to see the Asian market come to the party and find support this week. The other point is US BHP finding support back above the MediumLevel ML9 90.00, this s an aspect for next week.
At the moment we don’t have a clear direction, so putting out trades is a dangerous proposition, so keep al position sizing very small.
Trading Quote
"Buy on the rumour, sell on the news" – Peter Lynch
Today's Financial Events
Time Currency Detail Forecast Previous
8:45am NZD Visitor Arrivals m/m 8.2%
10:30am AUD MI Leading Index m/m 0.5%
11:30am AUD Monetary Policy Meeting Minutes
2:30pm JPY All Industries Activity m/m 1.9% -6.3%
6:10pm GBP MPC Member Fisher Speaks
6:30pm GBP Public Sector Net Borrowing 16.3B 7.7B
7:00pm EUR German ZEW Economic Sentiment -1.5 3.1
7:00pm EUR ZEW Economic Sentiment 9.4 13.6
8:00pm GBP CBI Industrial Order Expectations -5 -2
10:30pm CAD Core Retail Sales m/m 0.5% -0.1%
10:30pm CAD Leading Index m/m 0.6% 0.8%
10:30pm CAD Retail Sales m/m 0.7% 0.0%
12:00am USD Existing Home Sales 4.83M 5.05M
3:00am CHF SNB Chairman Hildebrand Speaks
NOTES:
1. Check the Dividend & Reporting section for your stock on this site before trading
2. Prices may change as this report is written while markets are closing/trading
3. Always think things out for yourself, we are only a floor to bounce ideas around.
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02 International Index: Oil – downtrend
Oil 1 Hour Chart Technical Analysis Elliott Wave
Tuesday, 21 June 2011 at 4:23:00AM AEST
Oil recovered above 93.30 region that was highlighted earlier, and as such, we believe that downtrend is done for now, and that larger upward pull-back is unfolding. We will look for a corrective, three wave retracement only within wave 4 , as we believe that downtrend on a daily chart is still incomplete. Waves (b) and (c) yet to come.
Oil 4 Hour Chart
Technical Analysis Elliott Wave
Monday, 20 June 2011 at 5:00:00PM AEST – wave three underway, targeting levels well below $90
Oil is trading nicely lower as expected for the past few days, and it seems that this sharp decline will continue in this week. The reason is a breakout through the lowest base channel support line that occurred in recent sessions. We know that this is one of the most powerful evidences of a wave 3 of an impulsive structure. Targets now seen well below $90!
Oil Daily Chart Technical Analysis Elliott Wave
19 June 2011 – third leg underway towards 89 and 86
Finally, oil prices collapsed, fell sharply below 94.60 region, about we warned you several times in our updates tin the past weeks. A third leg of decline from 114.70 is now in progress, and the next targets that we see are at $88 followed by $86 region. Critical region stands now at 99.87, which means that our bias are very bearish as long as the market trades below that level!
Oil Weekly Chart Technical Analysis Elliott Wave
23 April 2011 – at a huge technical resistance; reversal expected
Oil extended its gains in recent months after the commodity broke out of the contracting triangle, which now appears to be a wave X, part of a corrective wave B) rally. Notice, that prices are still trading below the upper channel resistance line with wave Y equal to wave W at 113 region, and as long this is the case, we belie oil will reverse significantly in 2011. after-all, only an impulsive fall will confirm that scenario, so we need to remain patient.
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