17 May Technical Analysis
Technical Analysis Report
Hi Traders
Temporary Top In Place On EURUSD!?
Technical Analysis
The US Dollar Index (DXY) may have found it's low, meaning the Euro has found its high, so a change in trend is on the cards.
US Dollar Index
There are now five small waves (impulse) up from the last low around the 75.50, so from around this current high say 77.20 we should see three waves down say 40/60% (7650?) then another five wave up higher above 78, the Euro will be doing the opposite, it has had five waves down yesterday, so it will now have three waves up
EURUSD
The five waves down in the Euro yesterday help confirm the high, now from the 139 low we should expect a corrective pattern up in three waves, the retracement in the Euro are normally shallow so the resistances are 13950 then 1372 and the rang from 14030 to 1472 The support is 140 to 13972
Regards Peter Mathers
PS Always great Technical Analysis ElliottWave analysis available!
01 ASX News - ASX200 XJO:
9 November
ASX200 XJO
Daily Chart - Technical Analysis
The wave count is still on track, however the 4800 (mTL8) can see profit taking, so it’s a game of support 4720 and 4772 and resistance 4800 over the weeks ahead
The 4800 is the central price the market will work with over the weeks ahead, it is a profit taking number, but I’m hoping the consolidation in October has enough strength to keep it above 4800 so we don’t have big sharp swings down, this doesn’t quite bother me just yet, but as the Dow touches on 10500 and our CBA keeps slipping it would be a concern, the upside would be Crude and Copper moving up
ASX200 XJO Long term Elliott Count Technical Analysis
Daily Chart
We have been using this chart as our longer term Elliott wave count for quite some time
PLUS A Little bit of Homework: FMG Daily Chart 10 October 2010
This FMG Chart was put out early in Oct, the wave count is still valid, can you work out were we are now?
02 Forex – Change in trend is on the cards!
EURUSD Technical Analysis Elliott Wave
8 Nov 08 11:41 EST
30min chart
EURUSD is trading lower already since Friday, and a decline from 1.4280 now looks even sharper with an impulsive structure that confirms a change in trend. However, an upward corrective pull-back in wave 2 is expected, before down-trend resumes.
Nov 08 2010 01:40 EST
4 Hour Chart
EURUSD is trading sharply lower since the end of the past week when pair found the highs at 1.4278 region. A downside reaction is very powerful, and is showing signs of an impulse wave, which means that temporary top is probably in place. With this being said, even lower levels are now expected, especially after any upward corrective pull-back.
US DOLLAR INDEX 08 11:40 EST
1h chart
No change. A move from 75.63 lows can easily be counted as a five wave structure, which means that bullish reversal could be here. However, don't get too exited with any dollar long positions just yet, we are expecting a corrective pull-back in the near-term; (a)-(b)-(c) structure.
US DOLLAR INDEX Nov 08 2010 02:54 EST
4 Hour Chart Technical analysis Elliott Wave
Dollar Index reversed sharply from 75.63 lows established in the past week, and an upward reaction could be an impulse, so we really like the idea that $ index is headed even higher over the coming days. Traders know, that once five waves are done at least correction follows, which means that move towards the 77.75 region would not be a surprise while the 75,63 holds.
– TIME ZONE: EDT is Eastern Daylight Time in New York. Dates (i.e. DAY 12 July) are also US time zone,
(14 hours behind our Australian Eastern Standard time)
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17 May
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01 ASX & General – Today's EarlyBird Report 17 May
Market Drivers
Dow Jones Index -0.38% 12,548
US Dollar Index -0.26% 75.55
US Spot Gold (Globex) 1492
WTI Oil (Globex) 97
Copper (Globex) 397
US BHP +0.53% 93.53
Base Metals: steady/soft
AUDUSD 1.0580
EURUSD 1.4160
SPI 4655
Dow Jones News
The technology and consumer-discretionary sectors led stocks lower Monday as weak economic data spurred worries of a softening economy and Europe's debt crisis kept investors wary of another session.
Commodities
US Spot Gold Futures 1490
The price is starting to lock under 1500 as resistance and the larger pattern across this MediumLevel is weighing heavier to the downside, so prepare for a move down with 1500 as resistance for stops and consider the 1472 SG2 area as resistance for adding. This move down is not confirmed by internal wave structure it’s just a general observation and once the US Dollar pushes back above 76 this will separate the gold price from 1500.
We should now include the bearish count for gold from this level at least be mindful of developing pattern as well as the pattern being corrective across 1500
Oil WTI (Globex Futures) 97
The price is rejecting 100 and following the bearish wave count lower. The failed retest of 100 and the first MinorLevel mTL8 98.00 was the trigger. The sublevel (65) which is 96.50 will put some support and the next MinorLevel is 95.
The Wave count is unfolding in line with our thoughts, so expect MinorGroup1 (MG1) 93 I 92 I 91 to have orders sitting there which will make the price action choppy but eventually find the MediumLevel 90 as the support, we at least for the short term. If you’re going to short then you best do it now at 98.
Base Metals
US Spot Prices (24HR in l/b)
US Copper: Last: 4.00+
US Nickel: Last: 11.02-
US Zinc: Last: 0.95-
US Aluminium Last: 1.13-
Copper (Globex Futures) 395
Copper is just doing its thing battling with supply at 400 and labelled a Wave 4, I would think once the Dow is under 12,500 then copper would start to let go of this level. Our AUD will feel the impact of this as well as our Material sector, this is why we have been edging towards holding short positions across our ASX, if it does drop then we can continue to add, the Dow being under 12600 is also part of the reason and more so once it’s under the 12500.
Forex
US Dollar Futures (c) DXY 75.60
The Currencies have a strange wave sequence which I will point out in the video, when we have a structure that is not clear its best to stay with the smaller structure until the larger structure becomes clear. The structure for the Dollar is still up and the Euro and AUD still down in the general larger picture, it’s just the medium term view that is unclear, so as mentioned it’s better to keep our forecasting to the smaller time frames for the time being.
From the high around 76.20 the move down is currently in three waves (corrective) the current retest of 75.72 can be a small wave four so failing at 75.72 would see a small wave five down to (SG1) 75.30, if this was the case then that would be five waves down from the 76.20 high, so five waves down would naturally produce a three wave abc counter trend 61.8% up or thereabouts, once the counter trend in completed then another five waves down perhaps a larger ABC from the 76.20 high. This would be the same for the Euro and the AUD
EURUSD
TradingLevels: IF 1.42 becomes support then we should see a move to 14272 then and abc correction
Elliott Wave: The move up from the 14050 low is currently in three waves to 142 this is corrective abc and one would look for a short trade set up from here. But you need to make sure your set up is robust, because the three waves can turn into five waves, so the correction at 142 can be a wave four, is this is the case then 14272 is the target for the five waves up and a solid support on 142 would be important. So two things can occur so the trick is in the set up, but once the market play out as three or five wave you need to know what happens next. So five waves up would see an abc correction down then another five wave up. If its only three waves up to 142 then the next move would be five waves down from 142 that would continue with the main trend down, so the position sizing can be larger with the main trend, or rather building in short position across the market for the long term traders, but this should have started long ago, if not from the top then the 144 as resistance, but its not too late but consider working with the 140 as a solid resistance
Trade Strategy: If the 14172 becomes the resistance then look to short adding under the 14150 if this level is retested as resistance. This comment is not in line with the small wave count (see DXY) but you also don’t want to miss trading in line with the main trend
AUDUSD
TradingLevels: Holding longer term short is the aim, the next important level is the 105, the order of importance in this region starting with 1.00, is 110, then 105, then 108 then 103, once the market is trapped under 105 it’s only natural for people to start thinking of 1.00, but you know the group1 103 I 102 I 101 will be a bouncy ride as orders build up at these numbers and because they are close then the price bounces around like a ping pong ball between these levels
Elliott Wave: Same - Wave (ii) complete yesterday at 107 so wave (iii) down is underway, the move down last night is just Wave I of Wave (iii)
Trade Strategy: Read the DXY and Euro wave count as it’s the same here, also observe copper at 400 and the SP500 a failing of support at 1330 will help with the downside here. And use the levels just trade from one number to the next, the setup is the failed retest of a price level
11:30am AUD Monetary Policy Meeting Minutes
Indices
Dow Jones Futures CFD 12,550
TradingLevels: The 12,500 MinorLevel (mTL5) 5 is the second strongest number after the number 1, so this 500 is very important, under this level can offer confirmation of a top being in place, we would need to see the price locked under 12500 as a few good retests to prove that the market is failing and has reject the 12500. The price can still simply bounce off the 12500 and move up and make new highs, so we are at cross roads, we have taken the weakness path and collected short positions on the ASX partly because the price moved under 12600 in fact our first collection of short was on the 3 May at the top, we are simply move with the bias and the weight of the market, but we don’t know if we have a bear market with a top in place, I’m saying this so you understand what we are doing and where the risk is.
Elliott Wave: The pattern appears to have added to the bearish side of the market but the price is still above 12500
Trade Strategy: IF it is a bearish count is will pick up speed to the down side because it would be in a series of third waves, this will come apparent if the price locks under 12500 as resistance when it lets go it will drop quickly
S&P500 CFDs 1,327
TradingLevels: Expect the price to drop through support 1330 to 1300 but bouncing around within subgroup1 (SG1-1310 I 1320 I 1330) Once the price is locked under 1320 then its part of the 1300 and then in turn this opens a larger bearish picture
Elliott Wave: The larger impulse wave down appears to be unfolding, wave three
Trade Strategy: look for short trade set ups from failed retests at each level
FTSE 100 Futures 5880
TradingLevels: The pattern across 5900 is the normal path for the price to take, the 5900 was support and now resistance you need to understand this if not study it, because one you get this then your trading will naturally improve because you will wait for the right time and place to trade, essentially being on the right side of the market at the right time, it this case you can see the price retesting the 5900 as the resistance this is the safer place to short rather than above the 5900 being on the right side of the price level, this is true for any time frame be it monthly or 1 minute on a micro level
Elliott Wave: Just focus on the retesting of 5900
Trade Strategy: The FTSE100 has been struggling at the 6000 for quite some time in fact all of this year, it is the small stocks in the FTSE250 that have kept the market up to a point so what the FSTE 250 once that starts to turn then the FTSE will pick up speed downwards
SPI Futures 4710
TradingLevels: Many traders would be focussed on the 61.8% retracement that was broken yesterday. The sublevel (65) 4650 is a subtle but important level you can work with as support or resistance and of course the 4600 is important, but in the bigger picture it’s the 4500 this MinorLevel mTL5 is the midpoint between 4000 (ML4) and 5000 (TL5) this offers the bias in the bigger picture. The general theme is that because the AUD is above 1.00 it has pegged the ASX200 under 5000, but even if this changes and the AUD moves back under 1.00 if the Dow is under 12500 we will still be in a softer bias.
Elliott Wave: If the price locks under 4650 then expect a bounce of 4600 just watch out for the bounces off SG1 4630 I 4620 I4610
Summary
If the Dow moves under 12500 it helps establish a top in play, the current price is above 12500 however the look of the patterns places a bearish bias that appear to place the price under 12500, if this is the case then the ASX200 would also be in a weaker position, which by the way, under 4650 creates the bearish bias and under 4500 paints a larger bearish picture. With the AUD moving lower should slow the move down in the ASX but not enough to stop it if the Dow moves under 12500 as markets are emotional just like us and our job is simply to trade them from one number to the next in any direction, sometime the less information and opinions the better just a numbers game of recognising support or resistance.
Currencies are weak as the US Dollar grows stronger and the Resources are dangling and can’t hold on for much longer, crude leading the way by rejecting 100 and copper doing its best to hold onto 400, US and European Indices may just be going through a corrective phase and that is still on the table but is diminishing day by day, so for us as traders we simply have to move with the flow but managing our person risk in terms of percentage.
The Down under 12500 and the ASX200 under 4500 as resistance is the bigger bearish picture, how big, well I like to keep things within reason, but for the ASX200 the 3800 is the 61.8% in the bigger picture but the 4200 is the old lows this is not about predication but about perspective rather than fear base assumptions, but as always it’s one level to the next and the 4500 is still support.
Trading Quote
If a battered stock refuses to sink any lower no matter how many negative articles appear in the papers, that stock is worth a closer look.
Today's Financial Events
Time Currency Detail Forecast Previous
11:30am AUD Monetary Policy Meeting Minutes
17th-19th CNY Foreign Direct Investment ytd/y 29.4%
All Day EUR ECOFIN Meetings
6:30pm GBP CPI y/y 4.1% 4.0%
6:30pm GBP RPI y/y 5.3% 5.3%
6:30pm GBP Core CPI y/y 3.4% 3.2%
6:30pm GBP DCLG HPI y/y 0.9% 0.7%
7:00pm EUR German ZEW Economic Sentiment 4.7 7.6
7:00pm EUR ZEW Economic Sentiment 17.9 19.7
Tentative GBP BOE Inflation Letter
8:00pm GBP MPC Member Posen Speaks
10:30pm CAD Foreign Securities Purchases 4.37B 2.50B
10:30pm USD Building Permits 0.59M 0.59M
10:30pm USD Housing Starts 0.58M 0.55M
11:15pm USD Capacity Utilization Rate 77.7% 77.4%
11:15pm USD Industrial Production m/m
NOTES:
1. Check the Dividend & Reporting section for your stock on this site before trading
2. Prices may change as this report is written while markets are closing/trading
3. Always think things out for yourself, we are only a floor to bounce ideas around.
Good Morning! Good Luck
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02 FOREX – EURUSD Update
The Euro was nudging higher Monday, coming off lows on apparent short covering after Friday's losses with mixed signals from tame US inflation data Friday and the arrest over the weekend of Dominique Strauss-Kahn, head of the International Monetary Fund.
EURUSD 15 Minute Chart
Tuesday, 17 May 2011 at 1:00:00AM AEST
EURUSD is in a quite powerful reversal mode, and because of the very sharp rise from recent 1.4090 support we have to consider an impulsive possibility. Notice that pair also moved above the upper base channel line, which we know is a very powerful indication of a third wave. With this being said, we really "may have seen" a temporary bottom on this pair, and a break above the upper channel line would definitely confirm this scenario!
EURUSD Daily
15 May 2011 - downtrend in process
OK, we really have seen enough evidences for a top in place on EURUSD! Notice how sharp a decline from recent highs is, compared to previous bullish rise from start of the year! In fact, this impulsive downside reaction also broke through the lower support line of a trading channel, which puts much deeper levels in play!
There is also a difference on the RSI indicator between 2010 and 2011 highs, which is anotehr strong indication for a trend reversal. As such, we are now looking for an impulsive decline within wave C of II) towards and below 1.3, while pair trades below critical region placed at 1.4938, which was likely a FINAL top of 2011!
EURUSD Weekly
15 May 2011 -temporary top in place; looking for wave C of II)
Two extremely bearish weeks for Euro from recent highs and broken trend line connected from start of the year, deiffinitely suggest that we have a top in place on Euro.
Usually when we look for reversal in trend we try to pick least aggressive outlook. As such, we are looking for incomplete wave II) structure, where flat correction appears to be the best idea, with wave B top and lower wave C in process. If that is correct, then five wave decline should send the Eur/usd back towards previous wave A support; near 1.2870 region.
This outlook also suggests that Eur/Usd has already reached high of 2011!
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