12 July
Techncial Analysis Report Weekly
PROFITS CAN COME FROM BEING ORGANISED
Without being organised there is no consistency. Our Robo Trading System has been producing consistently excellent results, but you have to be organised to place the trades into the markets each morning. You only need to set aside 30 minutes a day to select and place your trade from our recommendations.
The Robo System itself is a good example of being organised because its very nature is to track the market, so that when you place your order in front of the market it sits there waiting for the price, just like fishing with a baited hook.
And its organised because it removes the emotional element from trading, its mechanical. Sure your trading can be emotional for a while but after using a mechanical system it’s just like washing the car, it becomes routine and easy.
The Robo CFD Trading Method also takes away guessing. Trying to guess which way the price is going to go is why traders lose over time whereas the Robo is designed to get on the right side at the right time. We have been trading the markets up and down successfully.
So get organised. Get the Robo and get your trades working for you. We are here to walk you through it.
Best regards, Pete.
PS. Call anytime: 0434 288 367 or 02 4448 6020.
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01 Today's EarlyBird Technical Analysis Report – 12 July
Technical Market Drivers
Dow Jones Index -1.20% 12,505
US Dollar Index +1.28% 75.98
US August Gold (Globex) 1553
WTI Oil (Globex) 95
Copper (Globex) 435
US BHP -2.72% 93.23
Base Metals: Softer
AUDUSD 1.0755
EURUSD 1.4260
SPI 4500
ASX200 4582
US News Wire
Stocks were routed Monday as investors worried that Europe's debt crisis is spiraling out of control, threatening to engulf larger nations like Italy and Spain and create a wider crisis for global markets
US Gold Futures 1552
Expect a corrective pattern at 1550, after three swings we can understand if the pattern is corrective abc if so then it will push higher. It is an old high so it will struggle here and can fail here. It is move opposite to stock, however the headwind in the US Dollar as it also pushes up, having these two move together is not the norm, one will give…The 1330 correction is the volume support for stops, but suggest locking in some at 1550 until we can see what the pattern is at 1550
Oil WTI (Globex Futures) 95
Five waves down from the last high to 95, we should see a small abc across or up off 95 then another five waves down, following stock.
Base Metals
US Spot Prices (24HR in l/b)
US Copper: Last: 4.31-
US Nickel: Last: 10.42-
US Zinc: Last: 1.03-
US Aluminium Last: 1.10-
Copper (Globex Futures) 435
The move down is likely a wave (iv) and the retracement target is 38.2% around 430 the top of subgroup1 (SG1) if it does extend further then 425 is acceptable but under 420 then there is something wrong and a larger bearish pattern would be unfolding. This current correction down is in line with the Shanghai and the ASX etc once this wave (iv) is completed we are looking for a push higher. The catalyst for failure here is a strong US Dollar or rather a weaker Euro, the markets will come to a cross roads shortly as US stocks and US Dollar battle it out for the larger direction.
US Dollar Futures (c) DXY 75.40 TradingLevels Elliott Wave Technical Analysis
On the actual Index the 7650 is the important level as support or resistance, even though there is the Pennant pattern on the daily chart, which is also a series of waves ones and twos in Elliott terms and is breaking to the upside, the sublevel 7650 (65) is an important mile stone in the trend up. So the Euro is the mirror opposite and we have been chatting about it breaking lower within our trend channel through the 140 which it has done and still has lower to go, the daily or weekly Robo was also mentioned a week ago as a good tool for the longer term traders
EURUSD
TradingLevels: The speed of the wave structure down is wave three personality.
Once the price is firmly under 140 we can look at 138 and 13772 for the lows of the wave three. But please understand the size of this trend, the 130 is also in reach
Trade Strategy: Daily and weekly Robo. The price locking under 140 from any retest is the best bet other wise 139. But the trade is short from under 144 with the weekly Robo as the guide stick and use the daily to add and subtract contracts
AUDUSD
TradingLevels: While the 108 (mTL8) and 10722 are in place the bias is bearish
Elliott Wave: The 61.8% retracement is down around the 10550
Trade Strategy: If you are short from the 10750 then look to the 4 hr, Daily and Weekly Robo and a glass of red so you don’t get emotional.
Indices Technical Analysis
Dow Jones Futures CFD 12,500
TradingLevels:
The target down was the 38.2% which is 12400 but I mentioned a move down to 12500 as it was the first level and we are there now, It appears it can go lower.
The 12500 is a line in the sand and there does appear to be five waves down to 12500, meaning there should now be three waves up, an abc 5-3-5 correction, but we should strongly consider the 38.2% at 12400. It will be about the 12500 as support or resistance, so work this level
Elliott Wave: Looking for five waves down to 12400 or 12500 then and abc rally then another five wave down
Trade Strategy: just observe the 12500 as S/R and work any trade from this price point
S&P500 CFDs 1,320
TradingLevels:
The Dow at 12500 is the same as 1320 for the SP500 roughly the 38.2% retracement level.
The move down can also be seen as an abc correction, three swings down, either way we should see short term support at 1320
Trade Strategy:
FTSE 100 Futures 5900
TradingLevels: Like the Dow and SP500 the move down to 5900 is in three waves so it can be a ABC correction but it can also develop into five waves? We just have to wait and see.
Elliott Wave: If it is going to be five waves down then the wave four rally up off 5900 would be 38.2% 5950 But we can also expect a wave one up if the whole last move down was an ABC correction , its just too early to say
SPI Futures 4500
TradingLevels: Expect the cash XJO to drag the SPI under 4500
Elliott Wave: The 61.8% retracement level down is very close to the 4500, it would only be natural to see a bounce off here, however the opening of the cash market would drive the price lower.
Trade Strategy: The low at 4500 the 618% retracement level, has seen three waves down to that point, the opening of the cash can see it lower and also the other Asian markets can take it lower, keep an eye on the Dow Futures during the day and look for support in BHP
Technical Analysis Summary
The US markets and the European markets are trading quite close to their last highs, they have not had a correction on the way up, so it’s only logical to assume they will run into profit taking over the next few sessions. If they were going to fail it would be from these old highs and you need to build this risk into your won strategy, perhaps by locking in some profits if you are a short term trader.
The ASX200 and the Shanghai markets are doing much the same, after today they would have developed there first set of five waves up (impulse wave) once completed they will have and abc correction, this abc correction would likely take out stops, so it’s worth scratching your head for a little thought. Because we now have these five waves up, we will get another five waves up, well after the abc correction, so the medium term is looking good for us Asians.
So as the US and European markets face their old highs we would be facing the abc correction.
Our AUDUSD is touching on 108 the profit taking level and will be having its abc when our ASX200 has its abc, but I expect the AUD to eventually make new highs above 110, the main point in mentioning this is that it is a lot of money flowing into the country, the fifth largest trade currency with Australia only having 1% of global GDP is a mighty effort, anyway this will help the local market, the other part of the mix is the base metals and Copper will remain steady at 430.
So the only element to navigate is a pullback Wed / Thursday, so the logical thing to do here, is lock in some profits and the proactive to look for a few weak markets to short such as HVN.
Just another point, if the AUD is going to climb which companies would benefit from this and which would not?
Quotes for Traders
"If you don't get what you want, it's a sign either that you did not seriously want it, or that you tried to bargain over the price." - Rudyard Kipling
“A doctor goes to medical school for four years before practicing medicine; a lawyer goes to law school for three years before beginning the practice of law; why then does a sufficient amount of money with which to trade qualify an unschooled individual to be a trader?” W.D. Gann
Today's Financial Events
Time Currency Detail Forecast Previous
12th-13th NZD REINZ HPI m/m -1.8%
9:01am GBP BRC Retail Sales Monitor y/y -2.1%
9:01am GBP RICS House Price Balance -24% -28%
9:50am JPY Tertiary Industry Activity m/m 0.8% 2.6%
9:50am JPY CGPI y/y 2.4% 2.2%
11:30am AUD NAB Business Confidence 6
12th-16th CNY Foreign Direct Investment ytd/y 23.4%
Tentative JPY Monetary Policy Statement
Tentative JPY Overnight Call Rate <0.10% <0.10%
3:30pm EUR French CPI m/m 0.1% 0.1%
4:00pm EUR German Final CPI m/m 0.1% 0.1%
Tentative JPY BOJ Press Conference
5:30pm GBP MPC Member Bean Speaks
All Day EUR ECOFIN Meetings
6:30pm GBP CPI y/y 4.5% 4.5%
6:30pm GBP DCLG HPI y/y -0.2% -0.3%
6:30pm GBP RPI y/y 5.2% 5.2%
6:30pm GBP Trade Balance -7.3B -7.4B
6:30pm GBP Core CPI y/y 3.4% 3.3%
7:00pm GBP CB Leading Index m/m 0.4%
10:30pm CAD Trade Balance -0.8B -0.9B
10:30pm USD Trade Balance -44.1B -43.7B
12:00am USD IBD/TIPP Economic Optimism 45.7 44.6
4:00am USD FOMC Meeting Minutes
NOTES:
1. Check the Dividend & Reporting section for your stock on this site before trading
2. Prices may change as this report is written while markets are closing/trading
3. Always think things out for yourself, we are only here to bounce ideas around.
4. Traders, we would like to inform you that commentary & charts published on FOREX/ GOLD/ SP500 /OIL will not be updated from Friday July 1st till July 15th 2011. The EarlyBird will do its best to cover these until the 15th July.
Want to Get EarlyBird Every Day? Register for your Technical Analysis Report 72Hours free trial or buy 1Month (includes 30 minute coaching: $19.95)
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02 Getting organised is the key to your trading future
As outlined in the intro, we've been doing well with our "organised' system, Robo. SO again we feature recent results:
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OPEN POSITIONS
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CODE
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DATE
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LONG/SHORT
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ENTRY
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STOP
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Profit Targets
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CFD Trades
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WBC
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12 Jul
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SHORT
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21.57
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22.13
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SUN
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12 Jul
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SHORT
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8.92
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8.13
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PDN
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12 Jul
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SHORT
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2.56
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2.73
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ANZ
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12 Jul
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SHORT
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21.49
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21.76
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AQA
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12 Jul
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SHORT
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6.89
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7.23
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NAB
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12 Jul
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SHORT
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24.79
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25.13
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CBA
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11 Jul
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SHORT
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51.26
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51.36
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BSL
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11 Jul
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SHORT
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1.32
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1.43
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30% 2.90
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ABC
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7 Jul
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SHORT
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297
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3.01
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30% 2.70
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AAX
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7 Jul
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SHORT
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2.79
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2.76
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50% 8.50 (Already taken)
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BEN
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6 Jun
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SHORT
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8.71
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8.93
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50% 1.80 (Alreadytaken)
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QAN
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26 May
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SHORT
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2.07
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2.13
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Disclaimer: past results can not be a guarantee of future results.
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International/Forex: on holidays for 2 weeks
Our European Technical Analyst is enjoying his northern hemisphere summer holidays. So we'll bring you Forex/oil/Gold/S&P500 ElliottWave coverage again week after next.
Want to follow our Forex PLUS Gold/Oil/S&P500?
We have Intraday, 4Hourly, Daily and Weekly charts posted for Forex 6prs, Gold, Oil & S&P500
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03 Membership includes your own personal coaching session»
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– Includes TradeCheck, so you can get YOUR trades checked!
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