Technical Analysis Report
 

Market Drivers

Dow Jones – 12,134 +0.55% 
Base Metals Negative
US Gold CFD: 1800
Oil WTI CFD: 96.13
Copper CFD: 351
US Dollar CFD: 77.00
EURUSD 1.3780
AUDUSD 1.0338
Dow Jones CFD 12,100
S&P500 CFD: 1264
FTSE 100 CFD: 5610
SPI CFD 4225

News
NEW YORK (Dow Jones)--U.S. stocks jumped after reports that Italian Prime Minister Silvio Berlusconi plans to resign, signalling a possible breakthrough in the country's political impasse.

CFD Commodities

US Gold CFD: 1800
As you know the current focus on Italy is a problem and is causing spot gold up, the MinorLevel 1800 should see the normal pattern unfold across it. The internal trends are also expanding so there appears further upside and of course this brings in the MajorLevel TL2, 2,000. But as always one step at a time and the focus is the Classic Tradinglevels pattern across mTL8 1,800 
The last high up around 1900 creates the resistance / supply from 1800 to 1900 so the support and the type of pattern on 1800 is critical of what occurs next. In relation to the TradingLevels in the bigger picture I simply see the high at 1900 last Aug/Sept as the reaction at mTL8 and then finding support and the MediumLevel 1650 (ML65) as the normal process in a bull market, it is the profit taking at 8 before TL2. And at TL2  2,000 would see the normal TradingLevels Classic pattern unfold across 2,000, we have had the arrive and the reaction, the first high above the level would be next, then the correction.
The flipside to this bullish side is the Elliott Wave count on our site and that is the current move up as the Wave (B) that should top out about here around 1800. So time to see the price action develop as support or resistance at 1,800 is the aim.

Oil WTI CFD: 96.13
Even though indices have moved higher and Oil with them we are still looking for a top as our preferred wave count for the Indices is negative, meaning the October rally is a corrective rally and will turn lower with Oil to follow. The price points as targets and support and resistance to work with are the 95, 9650, 98 With the main support at Minor Group1 93/92 and secondary support at 95 the Midpoint, so the main trend is in tack for the time being, we are seeing weakness in copper so the 350 will be important for copper and this can add a weak spot for Oil as sentiment. I think the current high in Oil at 9650 is critical and a likely turning point as  the SP500 is at 1272 (72)

Base Metals

US Spot Prices (in l/b)
US Copper:           Last: 3.52-
US Nickel:             Last: 8.30-
US Zinc:                Last: 0.89+
US Aluminium       Last: 0.93-

Copper CFD: 351
It appears the 350 support will be broken, which in will see a retest of 11,500 MediumLevel for the ASX Material Sector XMJ this may also see the failing of US BHP at 80 and so on, so this 350 is an important aspect to work your trades with.

Forex

US Dollar CFD: 77.00
The price pattern for the Dollar during November is corrective, when it does complete its corrective pattern the Dollar will move up and the Euro is the mirror same and will move down in line with the US Indices. Working out when the corrective pattern is completed is the tricky bit, we can see the pattern is in the later stages and can complete any time soon but we just have to be patient and allow the pull back to complete and this means any rally in the Euro, if any?

EURUSD 1.3780
TradingLevels: Resistance 138 and SG2 13772 …
Elliott Wave: The November pattern is corrective once completed the price will move down, is the correction completed? There can be another push higher but looking for a short trade set up here at the 138 is a worthy prospect 
Trading Strategy: Look for Short trade set ups; The 138 and 13772 SG2 can be used as resistances

AUDUSD 1.0338
TradingLevels: While the price is above the 10272 the price is supported 
Elliott Wave: The price is just not getting up to complete the corrective structure and now the Euro is finding the 138 as resistance and the Dollar 77 as support, the key here for shorts is the 103 as resistance followed by the 10272
Trading Strategy: If the AUD fails to hold support then short from here, under the 103 is safer and under the 10272 is safer still, spread the bet. A move and support on the SG1 10330 is support, you need the 10320 as resistance this is the first breakdown price point in these cases. All this said we have been expecting a move up to retest 105 if this is going to be the case then work it from the support of the Midpoint 10350
1:00pm  CNY        CPI y/y    5.4% 6.1%   

Indices

Dow Jones CFD 12,100
TradingLevels: The 12,000 is developing as the support, this makes the market positive, if however the price move down through the 12,000 then we have failure and will look to short
Elliott Wave: Expect another move higher above 12150
Trading Strategy:  The 12,000 is developing as the support, a breach of this now will help confirm the rally high but the price pattern is still impulsing higher.

S&P500 CFD: 1264
TradingLevels: Resistance 1272 the 61.8% and support 1250
Wave count: Still in search of the elusive top, because the move from 1290 to 1210 Oct/Nov is in five waves, so that makes the current move up in November corrective 
Trading Strategy: Short the 1272 SG2 Zone look for failed retests

FTSE 100 CFD: 5610
TradingLevels: The 5600 need to be retested as support, the price would also need to stay above the 5572 then find support on SG1 5630 for any continued move upwards
Elliott Wave: The move down from 5800 to 5300 is in five waves, so the current move up should be a corrective rally
Trading Strategy: In the bigger picture while the price is above 5500 its supported, the next support is 5550. The current price action is doing all the normal things across 5600 if support is found then trade long with 5700 in mind, the price for stops would need to be under the 5572 (5563) DAX support on 6100 would be a positive and resistance a 6000 negative 

SPI CFD 4225
TradingLevels: mTL3 4300 support, the next step is SG1 as support 4330
Elliott Wave: Target 4350
Trading Strategy: expect the price to vibrate at 4330, wait for support and trade to 4350 exit and wait for support if it arrives 1:00pm  CNY        CPI y/y    5.4% 6.1%  

Summary

Corrective rallies continue to expand, but we are staying with our thoughts which are – the Dollar is in a corrective pull back and once completed will move up; the Euro is the mirror opposite and will move down, either now or a spike above the 138. Both the patterns over November for the Dollar and Euro are corrective, so the Dollar will push higher and the Euro lower and US Indices will follow the Euro, even though the US Indices have edged higher we still consider their current rallies corrective, that is the November moves up, because the move down from the 31 Oct to Nov is in five waves (impulse). 
That said the Dow has now developed support on 12,000 so we have to say that while the Dow is above 12,000 it is supported and positive a move down through 12,000 now would help confirm a top is in play and we expect this, but will we get it, is the guessing game.

ASX200 has also developed support on 4300 Minor Group1 this is a positive step in the process of moving higher, however the 4300 (4272) must now stay in play. Its still very early days as support, but it is positive. The main concern I see is the Base Metals being softer, that is Copper breaking the 350 support.

Trading Quote

Don’t marry a trader but if you must, make sure you have a prenup!
 

Today's Financial Events

Time     Currency   Detail     Forecast    Previous
 10:30am  AUD        Westpac Consumer Sentiment     0.4%   
10:50am  JPY        Bank Lending y/y     -0.3%   
10:50am  JPY        Current Account    0.96T 0.65T   
11:01am  GBP        BRC Shop Price Index y/y     2.7%   
11:30am  AUD        Home Loans m/m    1.7% 1.2%   
1:00pm  CNY        CPI y/y    5.4% 6.1%   
Tentative  CNY        Fixed Asset Investment ytd/y    24.7% 24.9%   
Tentative  CNY        Industrial Production y/y    13.3% 13.8%   
1:00pm  CNY        PPI y/y    5.7% 6.5%   
Tentative  CNY        Retail Sales y/y    17.6% 17.7%   
4:00pm  JPY        Economy Watchers Sentiment    46.7 45.3   
6:45pm  EUR        French Gov Budget Balance     -102.8B   
8:30pm  GBP        Trade Balance    -7.9B -7.8B   
12:30am  CAD        NHPI m/m    0.2% 0.1%   
1:30am  USD        Fed Chairman Bernanke Speaks       
2:00am  USD        Wholesale Inventories m/m    0.5% 0.4%   
2:30am  USD        Crude Oil Inventories     1.8M   
4:15am  USD        FOMC Member Tarullo Speaks       
Tentative  USD        Loan Officer Survey

NOTES:
1. Check the Dividend & Reporting section for your stock on this site before trading
2. Prices may change as this Technical Analysis report is written from 3.30 – 6.30AM
3. Always think things out for yourself, we are only here to bounce ideas around.

Good Morning & Good Luck!