03 May
TECHNICAL ANALYSIS REPORT
EVERY DAY WE PREPARE THE GROUND, YOU REAP REWARDS.
The alarm goes at 4.30am. I am up and ready to go. (Most days I'm cheerful!) I get up early so I can watch New York close up for the day. Then I review. The highs and lows and the quirks. Then I apply my unique methodology of TradingLevels and my ElliottWave experience and start telling the story of not just what was, but what could be, in the coming day of trading here in
Australia. Many people review, the news is full of what happened yesterday, but I will forecast. Yep, I do the work for YOU. I find the direction and the trades that just might make your day! Take a look at Today's EarlyBird, watch the video as well. See?
This week, not only do we give you our fantastic EarlyBird report, we're sharing our take on the AUSUSD! Want to know what's happening? Four Technical Analysis charts for you to view!
Speak soon Pete.
PS. Call anytime: 0434 288 367 or 02 4448 6020.
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01 ASX & General – Today's EarlyBird Technical Analysis Report 10 May
Market Drivers
Dow Jones Index +0.36% 12,684
US Dollar Index -0.30% 74.61
US Spot Gold (Globex) 1510
WTI Oil (Globex) 102
Copper (Globex) 405
US BHP +1.39% 96.83
Base Metals: Up
AUDUSD 1.0765
EURUSD 1.4350
SPI 4762
NEW YORK – (Dow Jones News).
US stocks climbed Monday as commodity prices recovered from last week's slump and a burst of deal activity helped overshadow concerns over Greece's finances.
Technical Analysis
Commodities
US Spot Gold Futures 1509
The bottom line is the MediumLevel 1500 becoming support or resistance. our charts have the move down as a possible wave four, this would also be the same for Silver. However there is still the chance that a larger bearish picture unfolding and the current high as the top. But we will stay with the larger wave four for the time being
Oil WTI (Globex Futures) 103
From the high 115 there are five waves down to 95, therefore a three wave abc counter rally is underway, the normal would be the 50/62% so the 103, 105 or 108 are the key sublevel targets. If the price can find support on 103 then 105 is the target. (the 103 is the top of subgroup1 – SG1)
At first glance the abc looks completed to 103. That is also the lower end of the retracement level so it can also be just the wave a of the abc. Either way just give the price time to develop the 100 as support or resistance before making a trade.
Base Metals
US Spot Prices (24HR in l/b)
US Copper: Last: 4.00+
US Nickel: Last: 11.14+
US Zinc: Last: 0.97+
US Aluminium Last: 1.16+
Copper (Globex Futures) 405
I would consider the pattern at 400 a wave four. Wave fours are normally complicated especially when they are working whole numbers like 400, so we should expect it to stay here a while. But any time spent above 400 is at least a short term positive and will not only help the Shanghai rally but our ASX200.
Forex - Technical analysis
US Dollar Futures (c) DXY 74.90
While the DXY works the 75 the Euro will work the 144, the DXY 75 as the high of the first five waves up and will now correct in and abc correction to the downside and the Euro to the upside in its abc rally. The supports for the DXY are firstly SG2 7480 I 7472 I7465 then the Midpoint 7450 then more support at SG1 7430 7420 7410 understanding the groups helps break down the analysis and the trade into workable sections, as the price moves from one number to the next of the relevant degree and the question is support of resistance and this is learnt by observation which is pattern recognition. Once you have the two basic patterns of a price working with a level then with a little patience while the price is working the level you will recognise what is happing and then you can chose a side when you know.
EURUSD
TradingLevels: The number 144 is where Gann and Fibonacci meet it is part of 72 and therefore part of 9 all these numbers seem to have a squaring effect on a chart, that I don’t fully understand, but enough to know and work.
Elliott Wave: There maybe another small move down just enough to make a new low, but we are looking for the five waves down to end around here, then rally in an abc corrective rally. The five waves down can be either a larger Wave 1 (Impulsive) or Wave A part of a larger ABC corrective pattern. But the short term point is looking for a rally.
Trade Strategy: working the 143 and the 144 and any sublevel for the long side as support, trading from one level to the next is the easiest game.
AUDUSD
TradingLevels: The 1.0772 and 108 are the resistances
Elliott Wave: We are still considering the move up to 108 a wave two rally
Trade Strategy: Opinions are once thing and support and resistance are another. If support is found on the 10772 and 108 then you need to be on that side of the market and vice versa
Indices
Dow Jones Futures CFD 12,700
TradingLevels: 12,600 and 12,650 have developed as support if they are broken then short. The resistance is 12,800 and 12,772 and the current price is working the 12,700 and 12,720
Elliott Wave: The wave structure should break down from here 12,720 and 12,700. Trade the breakdown of 12672 and 12650. If this does not occur now then a more positive structure is developing but while it’s under the 12,800 it has bearish bias. I will talk more about the structure up from the low in the video
Trade Strategy: The market is pointing up but should turn here at the 12700, so shorting on confirmation as 12650 as resistance would be the go, above 12720 would be a larger pattern unfolding and the whole pattern would need to be reworked which is a real possibility
S&P500 CFDs 1,344
TradingLevels: The support of the sideways pattern on 1340 places it in at least a short term positive mode, so a break and support on 1350 would create the upside. Or like the Dow failing at the 12700 the SP500 would fail here at 1350 as resistance
Elliott Wave: Wave two completed and the next move down should start, but the picture doesn’t quite look right, but it has had its 50% retracement. Any way lets just see how the 1350 pans out as support or resistance
Trade Strategy: The 1350 as support would create more upside and a 1340 as resistance would create the downside. Because the count should see a move down from here the a short from here 1350 with the stop above. This is a higher risk trade (no evidence) so keep the position sizing small and if correct then add through the levels
FTSE 100 Futures 5967
TradingLevels: The pattern between 5900 and 6000 is still viewed as corrective, it’s a little like our ASX200 these two markets do have a relationship. The corrective pattern can extend to the 618% which is 6020 but the 6000 is more likely even the 5980 SG2 zone.
Elliott Wave: ABC correction between 5900 and 6000 that is nearing completion, there should be a struggle at the SG2 5972 if support is found on 6000 then we are looking at something else probably in line with the ASX200 if that move up off support
Trade Strategy: Wait, either for support on 6000 or a move under 5950 as resistance and for the SP500 and Dow to be in line with this move, check their sections for their supports etc
SPI Futures 4747
TradingLevels: Both the SPI and the ASX200 are finding the 4772 and 4800 as the resistance. this was expected and this battle will continue and the bears have the slight edge. It will be important to watch the Dow at 12700 for support or resistance. And the other unknown is the Trade balance for Aust and China which are both out today and the Aust budget tonight
Elliott Wave: The move up is more corrective in nature than impulse positive
Trade Strategy: Trade less as there are news events out today and tonight
Summary
The Trade Balance for Australia and China today and the Aust budget out tonight.
I haven’t put out many trades on the ASX out simply because I can’t see the direction with any confidence.
As you know I was expecting support in the ASX200 and SPI around the 4700 and also with the Shanghai etc and this is developing, but I’m concerned that the support is covering as the patterns appear corrective so far I don’t see the evidence of a positive impulse structure, if the price had 4772 and 4800 as support then sure we can partly move in. The Shanghai support and it’s intended move up is only a abc rally retesting supply then it will have another five waves down do I can only rely on that for the short term I would need to see the SP500 / Dow find support on 12800 and the SP500 back on 1350, I am not convinced that there moves down are bearish, but if the Dow fails at 12,700 and the SP500 at 1350 then their rallies would be complete and further downside would unfold quite quickly into a third wave. But I’m firstly waiting to see if they do fail or if they can develop support.
Oil Copper and Gold have found there supports and are rallying which in term has an impact on the global indices for their current supports and the Dollar is about to correct back this will help stock hold support.
So all in all we need more time to see how its all going to gel together before we can truly chose a direction with confidence. There are times to be in and there are times to stand aside. We know the support and resistance levels for each market so lets just observe the price develop around these levels
Trading Quote
"The master trader trades from a perspective of rationality, knowledge, and skill— not from an emotional or defensive perspective, not in order to feel "complete" or "excited." To succeed at trading you have to be willing to do things contrary to human nature. You need to hold on to or get bigger in winning trades and get out of losing trades faster." Trading to Win by Ari Kiev
Today's Financial Events
Time Currency Detail Forecast Previous
11:30am AUD Trade Balance 0.53B -0.21B
11:30am AUD NAB Business Confidence 9
10th-13th CNY New Loans 703B 679B
10th-13th CNY M2 Money Supply y/y 16.7% 16.6%
Tentative CNY Trade Balance 3.3B 0.1B
3:45pm CHF SECO Consumer Climate 10 10
4:45pm EUR French Industrial Production m/m 0.5% 0.4%
5:15pm CHF CPI m/m 0.5% 0.6%
6:00pm EUR Italian Industrial Production m/m 0.6% 1.4%
7:00pm AUD Annual Budget Release
10:30pm USD Import Prices m/m 1.8% 2.7%
11:30pm USD FOMC Member Duke Speaks
12:00am USD IBD/TIPP Economic Optimism 40.8
12:00am USD Wholesale Inventories m/m 1.0% 1.0%
NOTES:
1. Check the Dividend & Reporting section for your stock on this site before trading
2. Prices may change as this report is written while markets are closing/trading
3. Always think things out for yourself, we are only a floor to bounce ideas around.
Good Morning! Good Luck
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02 FOREX – AUDUSD Special Technical Analysis Report
AUDUSD Monday, 9 May 2011 at 5:45:00PM AEST
Aud/usd already made three waves of a pull-back from the most recent lows, but we really doubt that wave 2 is done. Usually you will see quite slow price action within wave 2, which definitely takes more time to unfold than that. As such, we would like to see something more complex towards 1.0850 region, before we may continue to look on the downside.
Critical/invalidation region at 1.1008!
AUDUSD 4 Hour Chart Technical Analysis Elliott Wave
Monday, 9 May 2011 at 4:30:00PM AEST
Aud/Usd lost some ground in the past week, moved few pips below 1.0580 region but enough for invalidation of any bullish impulsive incomplete structure. As such, we think that top is in place, despite hawkish RBA at the end of the week, when pair found the support around 1.0535. From a technical point of view, prices reversed only into a corrective phase, labelled as a black wave 2/B.
If we are on the right track then pair may test 61.8% retracement region before downtrend resumes, but the most important is that 1.1008 top remains in place.
AUDUSD 08 May 2011 AUDUSDDaily - looking for a deeper pull-back
AUDUSD was trading lower since early week when RBA did not hike rates. Looking on the AUDUSD daily chart, it seems we have a temporary top in place, which in fact could also be a long-term top, labelled as a blue wave (5). However, for a confirmation of such scenario we need a larger impulsive fall! So for now, we should see at least three waves down, maybe towards 1.0300 region; 50% retracement of March lows.
AUDUSD 30 April 2011 AUDUSDWeekly – uptrend in progress
Its been a while since we made an update on weekly Aud/Usd, which has been constantly making higher highs in the past few months. As we can see, the pair moved well above wave A) top which is the main reason of an impulsive wave count from 0.6 lows, with an extended black wave 5 in progress, which is eyeing 1.13 region; 138.2% extension of a wave B). However, because of the very strong, bullish momentum we we also need to consider even higher levels, with alternate count in view that shows wave 2 low at 0.806.
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