Technical Analysis Report
 

Market Drivers

Dow Jones 11,481 -2.67% (6.30AM)
Base Metals Softer
US Gold CFD: 1685
Oil WTI CFD: 100
Copper CFD: 330
US Dollar CFD: 78.18
EURUSD 1.35
AUDUSD 98.50
Dow Jones CFD 11,500
S&P500 CFD: 1187
FTSE 100 CFD: 5220
SPI CFD 4182

News
NEW YORK -(Dow Jones)- U.S. stocks tumbled as concerns over the apparent failure of U.S. deficit-cutting talks sparked a selloff that sent the blue-chip Dow Jones Industrial Average back into negative territory for the year.

CFD Commodities

US Gold CFD: 1685
The market is expanding and extending towards the first target, the MediumLevel 1650 (ML65) The Subgroup1 (SG1) 1730 | 1720 | 1730 has played its part and now Subgroup2 (SG2) 1680 |1672 |1665 will play its part but it’s the 1650 (ML65) that is the important price point, followed be 1500 which is also a MediumLevel.
I mentioned the trend down is expanding, that is each small trend between the corrective rallies is increasing in size creating a larger bearish picture, so shorting is still the play here, just work the levels on the retest of the levels.

Silver is close to 30.00 TL3  so expect a corrective pattern this will roughly line up with Gold at ML65, you want Silver trapped under TL3 before adding to shorts then 280 (mTL8)

Oil WTI CFD: 100
98 | 97.72 | 96.50 | 95 | 93 etc are all numbers you understand well and how they fit into one another. From the slightly bigger picture the MediumLevel 90 (ML9) is the main game and any short orders you have between 100 and 90 you want to keep, because once 90 becomes the retested resistance you can add and the trades you have in this space can turn into a real trade for you, covering in part at 80 but essentially if our interpretation on the Global Indices is correct you want to be moving back in under the 80 as resistance. But the road is long and the first next step is the 95 mTL5 as retested resistance

Base Metals

US Spot Prices (in l/b)
US Copper:           Last: 3.29-
US Nickel:             Last: 8.03-
US Zinc:                Last: 0.86-
US Aluminium       Last: 0.91-
Copper CFD: 330
Short term, the price  is moving into Minor Group1 (MG1)  once the price is trapped under 320 then we can expect 300 to come into play with the price being trapped under the 320 we can also  expect the price to trade lower and get trapped under the 300 with the 280 mTL8 as first MinorLevel support.
The point here is that the Chinese and Australian market will move down and as mentioned before you do not want to be long in the ASX period. There are two types of traders ones that sells new lows and one that buys new lows the same with new highs, which one are you?

Forex

US Dollar CFD: 78.18
The Dollar is not done with 78 expect it to be retested and 77.72 SG2 zone with the Euro pushes higher for the short term, the AUD has increasing volume in the expanding trend down

EURUSD 1.35
TradingLevels: 135 as resistance is the short.
Elliott Wave: The pattern at 135 is corrective but it’s just got bigger and still has more to go, we cannot short it until the 135 has been retested as resistance
Trading Strategy: My thinking is, if the Dow bounces off the 11500 roughly then the Euro can move up too. There are better pairs to trade at the moment rather than the Euro, however with the Euro it is developing a larger correction and this is actually good, as the larger the correction the larger the next trend, we just need to work through the expanding correction (Flat) using Elliott Wave and the TradingLevels for safe trading, the 134.72 SG2 as resistance this time around should be a safer set up, the rally to the upside can go to SG2 13665 | 13672 | 13680 you want to count five waves up from the last low around the 13530 SG1 once this five waves is done it should be done, completing the larger Flat correction

AUDUSD 98.50
TradingLevels: 98 and 97.72 are short term supports, the 96.50 and then 95 are the main levels here, if the price locks under 95 as resistance then a further breaking down in the bigger picture would unfold
Elliott Wave: Wave (iii) down through 1.00.
Trading Strategy: If you can count Elliott on a 2 to 4 minute chart and use the tradinglevels sublevels and the money management plan for scalping FX on this site you should have no problem in making money.
The sublevels SG1 Midpoint SG2 and each one cent, support on SG1 gets you to the Midpoint, support on the Midpoint gets you to SG2, you can refine this because you understand the levels within SG1 and SG2 you know what is the most important price points and what patterns you are looking for at each price point and you know what price point target to trade to and exit you don’t need to be stop out, that is waste and leads to the emotional. And you know that there is a difference between a bear and a bull they are different and so is the price behaviour and you know how to work a short trade using the tradinglevels price and volume, you know where to get in and where to get out, you know where to place the stop, the exact price, you know the psychology of the market and how the price moves around price you are the mathematical psychological scalping surgeon
Indices

Dow Jones CFD 11,500
TradingLevels: That was quick, here we are at 11,500. On the 5 or 10 minute chart you can see the way the price has worked through 11,772, 11650 and now at 11,650, while you’re looking at that also look at the volume, you can see how the rallies / corrections / continuation patterns at these levels had low volume, this is the confirmation that you need to add to positions to the short side, so what is happening now at 11,500?
Elliott Wave: Intermediate Wave (3) down. We are a few degrees of wave three’s; we knew this before this is why we understood the markets would pick up speed to the downside. The Intermediate Wave (3) will have five Minor Degree Waves and each of these will have five Minute Degree Waves and so on, Wave threes are the move powerful wave structure’s
Trading Strategy:  I mentioned that we would see a counter trend rally off the 11500 the other day, however the intraday wave structure down is not completed and therefore further downside is expected

S&P500 CFD: 1187
TradingLevels: Like the Dow at 11500 and the SP500 at 1200 hoping for a bounce so we could add to shorts, but the price is still expanding further down, so we can simply add on any failed retests, the price in the bigger picture should stay under the 1250 and 1230+, on the lower side the 1200 and the SG1 1180 | 1172 | 1165 is where we will see some consolidation then the Midpoint 1150. But I must point out that the 1200 has not had its retest which would come from the support at SG2 1172 zone, the last five waves down from the first short zone 1272 still requires a counter trend, but we shouldn’t expect too much of a counter trend as the price in in a series of wave threes.
Wave count: A series of wave threes unfolding down at the Intermediate level
Trading Strategy: A possible rally back from SG2 to 1200 – 1230 before further downside

FTSE 100 CFD: 5220
TradingLevels: the price is in Minor Group1 of 5000 the main trend is down and you can refine that with the Elliott and the Levels, this is a serious trend down and playing a trade for the long term trend down would be the trade, the price should not go back above 5500, once the price is trapped in MG1 you can then work new orders, with the view of having 5000 as retested resistance to add gain, these type of trades don’t come often, think it out clearly and have a plan for all out comes 
Elliott Wave: Same as the US Indices a larger wave three unfolding down…
Trading Strategy: Looking for 5300 and 5200 to be retested as resistance for adding to shorts  

SPI CFD 4182
TradingLevels: Nearly at the MediumLevel (ML4) 4000 target, the basic point here is observing to see if the 4000 ends up support or resistance and this takes time we need to take into consideration of the MinorLevels either side of 4000.
Elliott Wave: The move down from the 4400 high roughly is only in three waves to the 4000 target and three waves is a corrective pattern? Sure we may see a wave 4 at 4000 and a wave 5 down to 3800 but at the moment we have to also acknowledge this as a corrective pattern.
Trading Strategy: Short term traders can simply use the MinorLevels as support or resistance and trade through the sublevels SG2, Midpoint and SG1

Summary

All the analysis and trading is on track; the US and European markets should continue down in their large wave threes. In the bigger picture the Dow finding 11500 opens the door downwards along with 5000 for the FSTE and 4000 for the ASX200, but I need to point out that there is a difference in the US markets wave count to the ASX. The ASX does not have confirming downside price pattern as yet even though the ASX is down, the structure can be counted as corrective down as its in three waves, however our real focus is trading ASX CFD short and we are certainly on track with that.

Trading Quote

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Today's Financial Events

Time    Currency   Detail                                      Forecast    Previous
8:45am  NZD        Visitor Arrivals  m/m                 18.1% 
1:00pm  NZD        Inflation Expectations q/q         2.9% 
6:00pm  CHF        Trade Balance                          2.06B        1.85B 
8:30pm  GBP        Public Sector Net Borrowing    4.3B         11.4B 
12:30am CAD        Core Retail Sales  m/m           0.4%         0.4% 
12:30am CAD        Retail Sales m/m                     0.5%         0.5% 
12:30am USD        Prelim GDP q/q                        2.5%         2.5% 
12:30am USD        Prelim GDP Price Index q/q     2.5%         2.5% 
2:00am  EUR        Consumer Confidence              -20          -20 
2:00am  USD        Richmond Manufacturing Index  -2           -6 
5:00am  USD        FOMC Member Kocherlakota Speaks     
6:00am  USD        FOMC Meeting Minutes

NOTES:
1. Check the Dividend & Reporting section for your stock on this site before trading
2. Prices may change as this Technical Analysis report is written from 3.30 – 6.30AM AEDT
3. Always think things out for yourself, we are only here to bounce ideas around!

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