26 July
Technical Analysis Report Weekly
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01 Today's EarlyBird Techncial Analysis Report – 26 July
Technical Market Drivers
Dow Jones Index -0.74% 12,586
US Dollar Index -0.24% 74.06
US August Gold (Globex) 1611
WTI Oil (Globex) 99.23
Copper (Globex) 440
US BHP -0.29% 93.86
Base Metals: Mixed to soft
AUDUSD 1.0842
EURUSD 1.4371
SPI 4525
ASX200 4530
US News Wire
U.S. stocks fell Monday, as the deadlock in Washington's debt negotiations left investors uncertain whether the U.S. can avoid a default or a credit downgrade.
The Dow Jones Industrial Average dropped 62 points, or 0.5%, to 12619 in afternoon trading, paring a sizeable morning downdraft that saw the blue-chip index sink as much as 145 points in the first 15 minutes of trading. Debt-ceiling talks between Republicans and Democrats collapsed Friday and showed no progress over the weekend, spurring a flight to safety overnight and in early market action. Worried investors drove gold futures to a new record settlement Monday at $1,612 an ounce.
US Gold Futures 1611
The first high above the level is unfolding, once completed a larger correction should unfold.
For the guess work we can use the sublevels SG1 – 1610 I 1620 I 1630, that is, SG1 is likely to contain the price, holding it to the 1600. If the price can find support on top of SG1 1630 then its free to move to 1650, finding support on SG1 is possible, however in trading the levels, the idea is to trade to 1630 and exit, then wait for support, if a good support falls into place then sure move back in and trade to 1650 (MediumLevel) and exit. But the flow is for the price to create a high here just above SG1 then move back to 1600
Oil WTI (Globex Futures) 9923
Interesting, to see stock drop while oil maintain its price, a small sign of strength.
The 100 price point is delivering a strong resistance and being under a level makes any long trade riskier. The OSH and WPL on the local did pull back nearly destroying their small current uptrends, they need to stop in their tracks and head up otherwise they will become short trades WPL 3872 and OSH 656 these price points are about the limit for the downside, If OSH locks under 650 the MediumLevel then it’s a short trade.
Base Metals Technical Analysis
US Spot Prices (24HR in l/b)
US Copper: Last: 4.38=
US Nickel: Last: 10.76-
US Zinc: Last: 1.10-
US Aluminium Last: 1.16+
Copper (Globex Futures) 440
The small pattern over the last few sessions at 440 appears to be corrective, so expect a move down to 430.
Forex Technical Analysis
US Dollar Futures (c) DXY 74.26
The sideways pattern over the last few sessions and across the SG1 of 74.00 is corrective and should see a move down through 74 to 7372 or lower. However the 74 obviously has support and will be a tough nut that will show up on the Euro as resistance.
The pattern at SG1 has the look of a wave four, complicated and sideways, the wave five down under 74.00 will be the low of a larger wave three.
EURUSD
TradingLevels: Like the wave four on the US Dollar, the Euro has a wave four at 144.
Trade Strategy: Go long as the price discovers support on 144.
AUDUSD
TradingLevels: The 10872 SG2 is pegging in a top
Elliott Wave: Wave v of i) now an abc correction, a move under 10830 opens a larger price pattern
Trade Strategy: Short term traders will need to work the support once it’s in place 10850, or SG1 of 108
Indices Technical Analysis
Dow Jones Futures CFD 12,600
TradingLevels:
The 12800 and 12772 have experienced the first reaction and the support has come in at 12500, so now we will see the retest of 12772, the 12650 is a more subtle point in play, but support on 12650 is a positive. We should also expect more swings in the 12500 – 12800 range. The move down on the Futures market early Monday morning our time created a gap, so the structure is hard to read, so we will have to wait for more price pattern to unfold. The Euro is firm to the upside so this should help and the FSTE as a guide for the European markets has been in a large triangle since the beginning of the year and is now completing, so we can see new highs over the month head. The only problem for the Dow is that its had lower volume since the 15th of July to now, I will keep an eye on this to see if selling volume moves in.
Elliott Wave: From the 12800 top we are considering the move down and abc correction the 61.8% is roughly the 12500 so under this level is bearish and we need to be short
Trade Strategy: Under 12500 is bearish
S&P500 CFDs 1,340
TradingLevels:
As long as the price stays above the 1320 the trend is positive, this is also the 50-62% retracement level and we can expect to see an abc correction
Trade Strategy: No trading strategy as yet until we can understand the actual correction unfolding, meaning it may be completed already or it may move to 1320 first before moving up, in line with the Euro. If in the next session it can establish support on 1340 then great work from there
FTSE 100 Futures 5840TradingLevels: Give it time to develop support at 5900
Elliott Wave: I think the pattern at 5900 is a wave four, allow three swings, the second is completed. But the reality is that there are three waves up from the last low, so the current trend up can be corrective. On the daily chart the whole top since Jan appears to be a large Triangle ABCDE that is completed, so this last low can be the end of the Triangle
Trade Strategy: Wait and see if 5900 can become the support this can take another session, if so trade long if not stand aside for the time being
SPI Futures 4450
TradingLevels: Support 4500
Elliott Wave: The move down to 4500 is the 50% retracement level, the 61.8% is 4480 the SG2 zone. The move down from 4600 to 4500 is currently in three waves abc, however it can turn into five waves, with the rally bounce off 4500 as a wave four, this would mean a wave five down to 4472 SG2 area, the a abc bounce. Will chat about this in the video
Trade Strategy: The price can move down to 4500 and 4472 before seeing a abc bounce. If however once the market settles in and you see support build on top of SG1 4530 then trade long. just be careful not to lose money in SG1
Technical Analysis Summary
We were expecting a reaction at 12800 for the Dow but not as quickly as it was, which affected many markets, mainly finance. However the current moves down are considered corrective but they are still unfolding and we do need to draw the line in the sand and that is 4500 on the ASX200.
Refining that a little further we can allow for a spike down through 4500 into SG2 4472 zone, but after that we would need the price to stabilise back above 4500 as support, if this does not happen and the price locks under the 4500 as resistance then we need to exit our long positions.
As mention, we understood that there would be a correction, but we can only accommodate so much of a retracement, the finance sector is the hardest hit and they would obviously be the first to go and the first to short.
The SP500 is holding up better than the Dow. The US Dollar is expected lower, meaning the Euro and Indices higher.
The base metals are steady, so there are more positives than negatives. It’s really just about give the current corrections down dome time to play out.
Quotes for Traders
“When emotions interfere with performance, you’ll often find evidence of inadequate training. Psychological assistance can aid the performance of a well-trained professional, but does not substitute for thorough training.”
Today's Financial Events
Time Currency Detail Forecast Previous
8:45am NZD Trade Balance 404M 605M
9:50am JPY CSPI y/y -0.9% -0.9%
10:00am AUD CB Leading Index m/m 0.1%
1:05pm AUD RBA Gov Stevens Speaks
4:00pm CHF UBS Consumption Indicator 1.91
4:00pm EUR GfK German Consumer Climate 5.6 5.7
6:30pm GBP Prelim GDP q/q 0.2% 0.5%
6:30pm GBP Index of Services 3m/3m 0.9% 0.9%
11:00pm USD S&P/CS Composite-20 HPI y/y -4.6% -4.0%
12:00am USD CB Consumer Confidence 58.1 58.5
12:00am USD New Home Sales 321K 319K
12:00am USD Richmond Manufacturing Index 5 3
» BACK TO TOP
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02 International Commodities: Gold – latest directional research
GOLD 1 Hour Chart Technical Analysis Elliott Wave
Monday, 25 July 2011 at 6:05:00 PM
Gold did not reach 1575 support region, as wave c) was failure, but uptrend however is continuing nicely, which could be wave (v) that now eyeing 1638 region, as a minimum projected target.
*Commodity remains in bullish mode as long as the market trades above 1583, where recent corrective decline found a support.
GOLD 4 Hour Chart Technical Analysis Report Elliott Wave Charts
Monday 25 July 2011 at 4:40:00PM AEST - impulsive rise underway
Gold exploded on the upside as soon as market opened, so wave (iv) is now considered as a complete just above 1580. With this being said, wave (v) is underway, towards 1638 projected target; where wave five equals to wave (i).
GOLD Daily Chart Technical Analysis Elliott Wave
24 July 2011 - bullish trend
No change!
Gold is at a new all-time high so count had to be reworked into a very bullish outlook as we see a lot of room for even higher levels. We are monitoring an impulsive advance from 1307 lows, where a final leg of that move, wave 5) may form an extended structure up towards 1700 and higher while 1478 critical region holds.
GOLD Weekly Technical Elliott Wave
16 July 2011 - gold uptrend fully in progress within wave III, now eyeing 1750
Gold remains in up-trending mode as price closed at new all-time highs this past week, which puts even higher levels in play, around 1750 as Fibonacci extension level suggests. We still believe however, that commodity is trading in final stages of a third wave, and that temporary highs will be established once this year.
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