24 May
DUE TO POPULAR DEMAND EARLYBIRD WILL BE A REGULAR WEEKLY FEATURE!
In the last couple of weeks we've featured our Tuesday version of our daily EarlyBird report.
And you've responded so well we're keeping on as a regular part of our news!
And this weeks popular Forex update focuses on AUDUSD with 4 charts to view.
Want to know how our Daily Robo System 1 with CBA trading is going?
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PROFIT TARGET
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CODE
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DATE
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LONG
SHORT
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ENTRY
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EXIT
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WIN (W)
LOSS (L)
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CBA
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23-May
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SHORT
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51.9
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51.93
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Open
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30% @ 52.35
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CBA
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17-May
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LONG
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51.63
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52.07
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W
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30% @ 52.00 51.00
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CBA
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9-May
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SHORT
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52.44
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51.63
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W
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30% @ 53.00
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CBA
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6-May
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LONG
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52.76
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52.44
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L
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30% @ 52.00
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CBA
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29-Apr
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SHORT
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53.26
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52.76
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W
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30% @ 53.00
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CBA
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20-Apr
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LONG
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52.36
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53.26
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W
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30% @ 52.00
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CBA
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12-Apr
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SHORT
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52.77
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52.36
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W
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30% @ 53.00
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CBA
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6-Apr
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LONG
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52.46
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52.77
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W
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Thanks for your time an talk soon, Pete.
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01 Today's EarlyBird Report – 24 May
Market Drivers
Dow Jones Index -1.03% 12,83
US Dollar Index +0.95% 76.15
US Spot Gold (Globex) 1517
WTI Oil (Globex) 97.70
Copper (Globex) 397
US BHP -2.87% 90.51
Base Metals: Down
AUDUSD 1.0660
EURUSD 1.4160
SPI 4610
Dow Jones News
U.S. stocks pared some losses late Monday after concerns over the financial health of European governments triggered a flight to safer assets.
The Dow Jones Industrial Average dropped 115 points, or 0.9%, to 12395, heading into the final hour of trading Monday. Earlier, the blue-chip index had fallen by as much as 180 points. The Standard & Poor's 500-stock index dropped 14 points, to 1320 recently, with technology and industrial stocks hit hardest. The technology-oriented Nasdaq Composite lost 37 points, to 2766.
Monday's selloff reflected the same investor risk aversion that drove a slump in crude-oil prices near $97 a barrel and a slide in the yield on the 10-year Treasury note to 3.11%. The U.S. dollar rallied versus the euro, the British pound and the yen, while gold prices rose above $1,515 a troy ounce.
Commodities
US Spot Gold Futures 1517
Gold has held steady in its wave structure up above 1500 the MediumLevel, the smaller fifth wave should see it above 1520, however it’s not going to make much difference with local Gold stocks while the Indices are down. Once Gold has finished this fifth wave we should see it roll over downwards below 1500, there is also an upwards wave count, however the 1500 level will become the line in the sand, a move back under this level creates the short trade
Oil WTI (Globex Futures) 98
The Oil is struggling in its wave pattern up because of stock but has held reasonably well considering. A move under 95 creates the bearish count of one degree of wave structure higher. As a trader being under 100 (TL1) creates the bearish bias meaning trade setups would be short and 98 being the next smaller level would be the trigger as retested resistance followed be 95 as 95 and 98 are the MinorLevels.
As mentioned in the charts there is still a bullish count to see the price above 100 again so the breaking or the MinorLevel 95 helps cancel that bullish move out and refining that’s, a failed retest at 98 is key
Base Metals
US Spot Prices (24HR in l/b)
US Copper: Last: 3.97-
US Nickel: Last: 10.13-
US Zinc: Last: 0.95-
US Aluminium Last: 1.10-
Copper (Globex Futures) 397
Wave 4 is probably complete as the pattern down appears to be impulsive (five waves).
Being under the MediumLevel 400 the bias is bearish and trade set up should be looked for. The retests of resistance of 400 (ML4) are still under way and should expect more of them from 395 or 390, but the supply (resistance) will be strong at 400.
If the Wave 4 is complete then we are looking at five larger waves down taking the last low out around 385
Forex
US Dollar Futures (c) DXY 76.20
Looking for five waves up from above 75 and it appears that it’s in the wave four pullback now around 76 once completed expect a fifth wave up above 7560 perhaps 7672.
EURUSD
TradingLevels: Resistance and supply at 141, the rally may not get this far up, once the rally is completed then expect a move down through 140 to compete the five waves down from around the 14340 area, the count up on the US Dollar may be easier to see…
Elliott Wave: The Euro will be doing the opposite to the US Dollar, so the bounce off 104 is a wave four, once completed, perhaps around the 14072 then the fifth wave down through 140. Once this fifth wave id complete expect a larger bounce
Trade Strategy: Look for weakness in the current rally to short, a retested resistance of a level along the way. While the price is being held by the midpoint 14050 then 14072 (SG2) and 141 are possible targets for the rally
AUDUSD
TradingLevels: It’s only natural to see a bounce off 105, the question is how far will it travel up, so every small group and level as support will be important to work with as you trading against the trend, so group1 is first and finding support on top of that is important 10530 then 10550
Elliott Wave: The bounce off 105 is a corrective rally and once completed will move down through 105 the 10550 is a good starting point as the target rally
Trade Strategy: Can trade the rally off 105 but be careful as it is a rally and will turn south, this move south is the better trade, but its finding the turn and then the resistance
Indices
Dow Jones Futures CFD 12,400 (5AM)
TradingLevels:
Under 12,300 opens the next larger degree of bear trend.
We should see a bounce off the 12300 today, a retest of 12500, this retest is the most important aspect, and there will be a reaction at the 12500 if it gets that far. There is still a case for a bullish stance for the Dow but this still depends on the price being above or below 12500 and 12300 - 12,272.
Elliott Wave: While the price is under 12500 the bearish count has the bias, with 12,300 as the confirmation of a much larger bearish picture about to unfold
Trade Strategy: look for weakening rallies into the levels to short
S&P500 CFDs 1,320
TradingLevels: Subgroup1 is 1310 I1320 I 1330, normally when the price moves under the central pivot of group1 in this case the 1320, then the price becomes part of the next largest number in this case 1300, this in turn opens the door to the next larger degree of wave structure, this can be confirmed be the price finding the 1300 as resistance in due course, with the nature bounce off 1300 first.
Elliott Wave: If the 1300 becomes the resistance then the next degree of trend is bearish bias, meaning short trade sets
Trade Strategy: under 1320 a bearish triggers the wave structure further to the downside, the first question is, will there be a bounce off 1300, this is where shorts can get trapped, so having 1300 as a retested resistance is the safest approach
FTSE 100 Futures 5850
TradingLevels: 5800 and 5772
Elliott Wave: The bigger picture, that is from the April high to now 5800 can be a larger ABC correction or waves 1, 2 and 3 now, if this is the case then a very large bear market is unfolding, if it’s the ABC the 5772 would be about it. But the Gap gives it the nature of a bear market.
Trade Strategy: Look for weakness in the rally to short either at 5872 or the price having resistance at 5850
SPI Futures 4700
TradingLevels: Will see choppy price action above and below 4600 be aware of SG1 4610 I 4620 I 4630 as this will cause choppy price action and would be tricky to trade, best left alone, the SG2 under 4600 is much the same 4580 I 4572 I 4580
Elliott Wave: Most global markets including forex are having there wave four bounces so this is what you can expect off 4600, once wave four is down then a wave five down, but this will be choppy and into SG2
Trade Strategy: don’t look for trends, just look for support or resistance on the sublevels and trade to the next sublevel and get out.
Summary
The Dow has moved though support 12500 but is still above 12300 as the 12272 to 12300 would be the trigger for a much larger bear market, so obviously the 12300 is critical.
There are still to patterns that can play out form here, here meaning above the 12300, and this runs through many of the global Indices, while the price is above 12300 Indices such as the FSTE can be large ABC corrective patterns (From April Highs), this can be a little hopeful holding onto a bullish pattern, however working with Elliott wave requires all counts must stay in play until proven otherwise.
We should soon see bounces from the Indices and currencies, when fear sticks markets harmonise, on the Elliott front, most markets are trending down in five waves, many of these are ending their third wave and some are starting their fourth wave, once the markets have completed their full five waves down we would see a larger bounce, this is where we gat to see if we have a larger ABC corrective pattern or a larger bear market, the 12300 I 12272on the Dow is just one element we can look at to make it simple
Trading Quote
"Trade what you see, Not what you think"
Today's Financial Events
Time Currency Detail Forecast Previous
1:00pm NZD Inflation Expectations q/q 2.6%
5:00pm EUR German Final GDP q/q 1.5% 1.5%
6:00pm EUR German Ifo Business Climate 110.1 110.4
6:30pm GBP Public Sector Net Borrowing 4.8B 16.4B
7:00pm EUR Industrial New Orders m/m -1.1% 0.9%
Tentative GBP Inflation Report Hearings
8:00pm GBP CBI Realized Sales 11 21
9:00pm GBP MPC Member Fisher Speaks
10:25pm USD FOMC Member Duke Speaks
11:00pm EUR Belgium NBB Business Climate 2.8
11:50pm USD FOMC Member Plosser Speaks
12:00am USD New Home Sales 308K 300K
12:00am USD Richmond Manufacturing Index 10 10
NOTES:
1. Check the Dividend & Reporting section for your stock on this site before trading
2. Prices may change as this report is written while markets are closing/trading
3. Always think things out for yourself, we are only a floor to bounce ideas around.
Good Morning! Good Luck
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02 FOREX –Daily Market Overview & AUDUSD Update
FOREX Daily Market Overview
May 23 2011 05:20PM AEST
Previous session
The Euro remained under pressure in Asia Monday, falling to a record low against the Swiss franc, as investors bet the new week could bring fresh negative news on the euro-zone's sovereign debt problems.
The loss of Spanish Prime Minister Jose Luis Rodriguez Zapatero's Socialist Party in municipal and regional elections Sunday has added to concerns over the common currency by highlighting political instability in the euro-member as it grapples with economic and fiscal problems.
A new volcanic eruption in Iceland has compounded the euro's headache by reviving concerns over broader economic damage to the euro-zone, a year after separate eruptions in Iceland caused chaos for air travel in the region.
At 0050 EDT, the euro was down at USD1.4072 from USD1.4162, and at JPY115.30 from JPY115.65 late Friday in New York.
The ICE Dollar Index, which measures the greenback against a basket of currencies including the euro and yen, rose to a month and a half high at 76.028. At 0450 GMT, it stood at 75.980, up from 75.626 late Friday in New York.
The Pound is also lower against the dollar this morning, but is higher against the EUR. The pound gained on its mainland European counterpart as investors scale back expectations that the gap between GBP and EUR yields will widen this year.
The Australian dollar plummeted in Asian trade Monday, damped by sweeping concern about ongoing debt issues in Europe and a weak reading of China's manufacturing industry. At 0210 EDT, the Australian dollar was changing hands at USD1.0552, down from USD1.0660 late Friday. Against the Japanese yen, the Australian dollar was at JPY86.515, down from JPY87.135.
AUDUSD Update
AUDUSD 1 Hour Chart
Tuesday, 24 May 2011 at 1:45:00AM AEST
No evidence of any slow down on Aud/usd yet. In fact, prices moved below 1.0505 region, and now eyeing lower support line of a base channel, from where we would not be surprised to see some larger corrective pull-back, likely wave ii) before another sell-off!
AUDUSD 4 Hour Chart
Monday 23 May 2011 at 4:20:00PM AEST
OK, we really have seen enough evidences for a top in place on EURUSD! Notice how sharp a decline from recent highs is, compared to previous bullish rise from start of the year! In fact, this impulsive downside reaction also broke through the lower support line of a trading channel, which puts much deeper levels in play!
There is also a difference on the RSI indicator between 2010 and 2011 highs, which is anotehr strong indication for a trend reversal. As such, we are now looking for an impulsive decline within wave C of II) towards and below 1.3, while pair trades below critical region placed at 1.4938, which was likely a FINAL top of 2011!
AUDUSD Daily
22 May 2011 - looking for a deeper pull-back
No change!
AUDUSD was lower in recent weeks, after the RBA did not hike rates at the start of the month. Looking on the Aud/Usd daily chart, it seems we have a temporary top in place, which in fact could also be a long-term top, labelled as a blue wave (5). However, for a confirmation of such scenario we need a larger impulsive fall! So for now, we should see at least three waves down, maybe towards 1.0300 region; 50% retracement of March lows.
If we are correct, then third leg is now in progress, which should be headed even lower in coming week, while pair trades below 1.0887.
AUDUSD Weekly
30 April 2011 - uptrend in progress
Its been a while since we made an update on weekly Aud/Usd, which has been constantly making higher highs in the past few months. As we can see, the pair moved well above wave A) top which is the main reason of an impulsive wave count from 0.6 lows, with an extended black wave 5 in progress, which is eyeing 1.13 region; 138.2% extension of a wave B). However, because of the very strong, bullish momentum we we also need to consider even higher levels, with alternate count in view that shows wave 2 low at 0.806.
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