19 July
Technical Analysis Report Weekly
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01 Today's EarlyBird Technical Analysis Report – 19 July
Technical Market Drivers
Dow Jones Index +0.87% 12,369
US Dollar Index +0.39% 75.41
US August Gold (Globex) 1603
WTI Oil (Globex) 96
Copper (Globex) 440
US BHP -1.80% 89.44
Base Metals: Steady Mix
AUDUSD 1.06
EURUSD 1.4080
SPI 4412
ASX200 4473
US News Wire
US stocks fell Monday, as rising anxieties over euro zone debt and uncertainty over the U.S. debt-ceiling negotiations turned investors cautious on risky assets.
US Gold Futures 1603
No change in Gold, just expect corrective price action across 1600, the basic abc three swings is the norm over the next few days as a wave four
Oil WTI (Globex Futures) 96
The oil is following stock and the short term is down testing the 95 (mTL5) as the SP500 tests 1300 both solid supports, so oil breaking 95 would see the price at 93. We are still expecting a move up in both of these, when the US pollies find a resolution patch to their short term debt problem The push up can come from the 1300 SP500 and the 95 in Oil, but we have not seen the turn yet, we are simply following a wave structure down, that we think should end soon
Base Metals
US Spot Prices (24HR in l/b)
US Copper: Last: 4.39+
US Nickel: Last: 10.77-
US Zinc: Last: 1.08+
US Aluminium Last: 1.10-
Copper (Globex Futures) 441
The wave four is simply unfolding across the 430 support once completed should see a push up, probably worth looking at the local copper stocks for the best developing patterns, as taking positions in the correction is better than waiting for the break out.
Forex Technical Analysis
US Dollar Futures (c) DXY 7595
The resistance at 76 and the support in the Euro at 140 are valid turning points, this would also line up with the SP500 at 1300, either way all these markets will be working from these prices in the next session and secondary markets won’t move much.
EURUSD
TradingLevels: The Euro is down at a larger support 140, so a climb back above the 141 as support would help confirm the correction down is completed, the DXY would also need to turn at the 76. The Euro is in a trend channel down and any retesting of 141 will initially see failure, so the midpoint 14050 and SG2 14072 as support and resistance will become very important.
Trade Strategy: The trend is down, that is the fact, there is support at 140 and resistance at 141, so you need to allow this battle in this space to play out waiting for what you think is the direction at the time
AUDUSD
TradingLevels: Like the SP500 and the Euro we think there is a low forming for a turn and that would also be the same for the AUD at these lows, if the price can climb back above 106 and gain support then look for long trade set ups
Elliott Wave: From the current low around the SG2 and Midpoint there are five waves developing up towards 106, so we should see an abc correction at 106 then a push higher
Trade Strategy: wait for the abc correction at 106 to complete and trade long off 106 scaling in through 106 SG1 (10, 20, 30).
Indices Technical Analysis
Dow Jones Futures CFD 12,480
TradingLevels:
Looking for a turn at the 61.8% retracement level 12,200, that said we have to stay with the unfolding internal wave count. The other point is that is fine using Elliott as a directional tool but we are traders and require solid support and resistance to work off, the tradinglevels important levels here are firstly the 12500 under this level the bias is bearish and are trading the local market on that side. Not the next important levels are Minor Group 1 (MG1) 300, 200, 100. Depending on which direction the market is going, down in this case Group1 acts like a filter of support for 12000, there will be buying orders at each 100 points, so we can expect the market to get choppy in this range, we are looking for a turn up in this MG1 zone the 12200 is the 61.8% however if the price starts trading under the 12200 (the centre of MG1) then the bias swings down to 12000. The Top of MG1 12300 if the first place we will see the bounce and can also be the low, as this would also line up with the support on the SP500 at 1300 and the Resistance on the US Dollar at 76 and the low on the AUDUSD
Elliott Wave: ABC down from the last high for Wave E of a Running Triangle
Trade Strategy: In the bigger picture a move above 12500 is confirmation of the next trend up, otherwise if the price is going to move into MG1 then it’s a bouncing affair
S&P500 CFDs 1,303
TradingLevels:
The 1300 would naturally offer support and a bounce, the price can move to the 1272/1280 where it has trendline support, we are searching for a low to this move down form the last high around 1356
Trade Strategy: If the 1310 becomes support trade long, otherwise wait for the price to finish with 1300
FTSE 100 Futures 5750TradingLevels: Under the 5772 and 5800 the bias is bearish and now the price is working the Midpoint 5750 so on the 2- 5 minute chart as support or resistance the next short term direction will come
Elliott Wave: The price is unfolding five waves down from 5900 and there seem to be more to go, but you know there will be support and a bounce around the these current lows to 5700
Trade Strategy: The pressure is down, so you need to look at the 5700 and the SG1 of 5700
SPI Futures 4450
TradingLevels: The price down to 4400 with two bounces off 4400. It will be interesting to see if the ASX200 makes new lows.
Elliott Wave: Five waves down from 4450 to just below 4400
Trade Strategy: Have to expect the price to get choppy on 4400 as larger orders will be places. The ASX200 staying above 4450 adds weight to a larger bounce off 4400
The selling pressure is still down as we are searching markets for a turning point.
Turning points: the SP500 at 1300; the Dow at 12300; the Dollar at 76; Euro at 140; are solid numbers for a turn but there is no evidence of a turn, but we watch intently while holding short positions on the local market.
The SPI has made new lows. If the ASX200 doesn’t, that is, today it stays above 4450 then this would be the first small piece of evidence of strength in the local market, if its taken out then it destroy a small wave structure that has a possibility of being a low. The AUDUSD is also not far behind finds its low after a reasonable sized ABC correction and is now showing its first five waves up off the current low, support on 106 would help support a low in place with the ASX200 staying above the 4450
Quotes for Traders
"Human emotion is both the source of opportunity in trading and the greatest challenge. Master it and you will succeed. Ignore it at your peril."
Today's Financial Events
Time Currency Detail Forecast Previous
11:30am AUD Monetary Policy Meeting Minutes
7:00pm EUR German ZEW Economic Sentiment -10.9 -9.0
7:00pm EUR ZEW Economic Sentiment -7.4 -5.9
10:30pm CAD Leading Index m/m 1.2% 1.0%
10:30pm USD Building Permits 0.61M 0.61M
10:30pm USD Housing Starts 0.58M 0.56M
11:00pm CAD BOC Rate Statement
11:00pm CAD Overnight Rate 1.00% 1.00%
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AUDUSD 1 Hour Chart Technical Analysis Elliott Wave
Tuesday, 19 July 2011 at 12:57:00AM AEST
Dollar also trading higher against Australian dollar, nearing 1.0500 region that we highlighted earlier. We really want to see a push, or spike below wave (a) support before wave 2/B expanded flat completes and causes a bullish reversal.
*Critical region still at 1.0391.
AUDUSD 4 Hour Chart Technical Analysis
Monday, 18 July 2011 at 4:30:00PM AEST – wave 2/B searching for support
AUDUSD bounced sharply higher at the end of June from 1.0389, where corrective wave (4) appears complete. Well, first impulsive leg found highs just below 1.0800 region, which was wave 1/A as labelled on the chart. As such, current price action must be corrective, with wave (c) underway that may test 1.05 once again, before uptrend resumes. We can also see a blue trend line in that area, that will also tend to react as a support.
AUDUSD Daily Chart Technical Analysis Elliott Wave
15 July 2011 – it was correction; new high in view
Finally some clarity here! A decline from 1.1 is corrective, identified by slow and choppy price action, with bottom in place at 1.0338. As such, another and maybe even final push into a new high should now occur, with five sub-waves within a red wave 5) towards 1.12/14 region.
AUDUSD Weekly Technical Analysis Elliott Wave
30 April 2011 – uptrend in progress
Its been a while since we made an update on weekly Aud/Usd, which has been constantly making higher highs in the past few months. As we can see, the pair moved well above wave A) top which is the main reason of an impulsive wave count from 0.6 lows, with an extended black wave 5 in progress, which is eyeing 1.13 region; 138.2% extension of a wave B). However, because of the very strong, bullish momentum we we also need to consider even higher levels, with alternate count in view that shows wave 2 low at 0.806.
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