5 July
Technical Analysis Report Weekly
WE REALLY DO HAVE THE GOOD OIL FOR YOU THIS WEEK
We're so excited to share some results one of our clients sent to us this week.
John, not his real name ;)) – has been using the ASX & CFD Day Trading and Weekly Trading strategies over the last three months and got a 56% return! Were we pleased for him? You bet!
We are often asked for a results table! And many of you may want us to be more organised so we're happy finally demonstrate what we've been working on this year! You can see his Running Total below.
As always we include today's EarlyBird Technical Analysis Report – we've been tracking the market up successully and now we're looking for a small pull back into support before the next run up.
Why not join up to our service and learn our trading price points?
We've got a great deal for 1Year membership this week.
Best of success to you in the markets! Rgds, Pete.
PS. Call anytime: 0434 288 367 or 02 4448 6020.
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01 Today's EarlyBird Technical Analysis Report – 5 July
Techncial Market Drivers
Dow Jones Index +1.34% 12,582 (US Markets Closed)
US Dollar Index -0.02% 74.28
US August Gold (Globex) 1495
WTI Oil (Globex) 95
Copper (Globex) 430
US BHP +0.87% 95.45 (US Markets Closed)
Base Metals: Positive
AUDUSD 1.0730
EURUSD 1.4538
SPI 4618
Traders, we would like to inform you that content (Charts) published on FOREX GOLD SP500 OIL will not be updated from Friday July 1st till July 15th 2011.
US News Wire
U.S. Markets Closed, European markets edged higher.
US August Gold Futures 1486
The expect retest of 1500 is underway, the 61.8% retracement of the last trend down is also 1500 and the abc 5-3-5 structure as the rally should fit with the range to 1500, as part of the larger picture we should see this retest fail.
If the price does climb above the 1500 then the larger bearish picture for gold is likely wrong and the move down from 1560 is a larger ABC correction. We will look at this long side if support is found but for the time being we need to see this retest play out.
Oil WTI (Globex Futures) 95 Techncial Analysis
A move under 94 and the patter at 95 has failed, otherwise it’s a move up from 95
Base Metals
US Spot Prices (24HR in l/b)
US Copper: Last: 4.27-
US Nickel: Last: 10.48+
US Zinc: Last: 1.07+
US Aluminium Last: 1.11+
Copper (Globex Futures) 430
Copper will unfold across 430, this could take two weeks, once its complete it will move up. It will be a small fourth wave correction, meaning drawn out sideways and complicated; however it will keep base metals steady and the materials sector.
The Shanghai market is showing small rise but a well-structured impulse wave up, meaning the medium term will be up, the short term will have a corrective process. All in all healthy.
Forex Technical Analysis
US Dollar Futures (c) DXY 74.55
Once the price falls under 7450 the larger trend down unfolds. A move above 7472 would see the Euro have a larger correction below 145 and stall the current trend
EURUSD Technical Analysis
TradingLevels: The overhead trendline is still cutting through this current high at 145, If the DXY drops below the 7450 then the Euro is free to go, otherwise expect a larger correction here at 145. The move down from the 14575 high appears to be corrective, so the current price finding support on the midpoint 14550 is the level to work any upside from
Trade Strategy: Give the market time to see if the 14550 can develop support. Once the DXY retests 7450 as resistance then you have the key for the upside on the Euro.
As you know from the 4 hour chart on the Euro we are looking for a breakout to the upside through this overhead trend line, this is not etched in stone but being aware of both sides is important
AUDUSD Technical Analysis TradingLevels Elliott Wave
TradingLevels: The 10772 and 108 are kicking in as expected, putting the price into corrective action
Elliott Wave: The current correction, is likely a wave four, therefore a 38% correction at 10650 is about right or the target point can be the wave four of once lesser degree 10665/72 SG2 zone
Trade Strategy: Corrections can be tricky, so its better to trade the sublevels as support or resistance. In this case there are supports from 10650, the SG2 (10665 I 10672 I 10680) then 107 then SG1. When a market reacts from a main level in the case the 10772 I 108 the reaction is looking for support and that’s where we are now, I find its always better to allow the first swing down to play out and work out its pattern abc or impulsive (five waves) from here it’s narrows down the next two swings. Once this correction is over new highs would be expected, in fact as mention before new all-time highs are expected. Just to take your thinking outside the box. When the market moved up to 110 (first MinorLevel mTL1) then reaction then was to the midpoint 105 (sublevel) that was the reaction and support, so we are in the retest of 110 mTL1 and as you know the number 8 (108) is a profit taking level so we are going through that part. Once support is found on 108 then we can retest 110 and trading from 108 to 110 is the trade, this trick is not to lose money while the price weaves its way across the 108, we can look at this pattern as the basic tradinglevels Classic pattern. The arrival (108) the reaction, the support, first high above the level, then a ABC correction then support back above 108, a process, yes, but once you get this pathway you will know where you are then what to do. This is a high probability path; it’s not carved in stone, but an option we need to include in the analysis and the trade. The other is actual failure at 108.
2:30pm AUD Cash Rate 11:30am AUD Trade Balance 1.91B 1.60B
Indices Technical Analysis
Dow Jones Futures CFD 12,590
TradingLevels: (US Markets Closed)
A positive aspect in the internal trend is the trends and corrections in the uptrend are expanding, its growing not shrinking the momentum is increasing.
It is likely to see the price stall at 12600 and retest 12500. The 12500 or rather the 500 is an important number on the way and its normal to see a market spend time at it.
There are two basic paths the price will take at a level, either react and do the basic tradinglevels classic pattern, or overshoot the level then swing back, in this case the price overshot the 12500 so I would expect it to swing back, the distance the price overshoots in the distance it swings back, in this case 100 point so we could se the market swing down to 12400 and this eventually finding the 12500 as the balance point.
That’s said if that’s not the case and this market is really strong then the 12600 will find support and then up to 12700, it is the 12772 and 12800 that are the important levels followed by the 13000
Elliott Wave: The impulse structure is extending in the channel
Trade Strategy: IF support is found on 12600 trade to 12700 if the price fails at 12600 the price will correct into 12500 an ABC correction
S&P500 CFDs 1,338 (US Markets Closed)
TradingLevels: The Dow and the SP500 are reasonably close to their old highs, so we have to expect profit taking
Elliott Wave: Getting close to the completion of the ABC rally top or if it’s a bull market the top of the Wave 3 its only after the reaction / wave 4 can we work out the bigger picture for the US markets
FTSE 100 Futures 6020
TradingLevels: ABC pattern to unfold across 6000 with support SG2 5972
Elliott Wave: Unsure, but impulse wave. The current high is likely the top of a wave 3 with wave four across 6000 The FSTE250 is leading the FSTE100 These are old highs.
SPI Futures 4550
TradingLevels: ASX200 the pullback and retest of 4600 was a wave four and now a wave five up, this would line up with the Shanghai markets. The SPI is the same sitting back at 4610, as long as it now stays above 4600 it will give you a support to work from
Trade Strategy: Use the sublevels in SG1 to trade from as support. The top of SG1 4630 required retested support to move higher 11:30am AUD Trade Balance 1.91B 1.60B
2:30pm AUD Cash Rate
Technical Analysis Summary
The US markets and the European markets are trading quite close to their last highs, they have not had a correction on the way up, so it’s only logical to assume they will run into profit taking over the next few sessions. If they were going to fail it would be from these old highs and you need to build this risk into your won strategy, perhaps by locking in some profits if you are a short term trader.
The ASX200 and the Shanghai markets are doing much the same, after today they would have developed there first set of five waves up (impulse wave) once completed they will have and abc correction, this abc correction would likely take out stops, so it’s worth scratching your head for a little thought. Because we now have these five waves up, we will get another five waves up, well after the abc correction, so the medium term is looking good for us Asians.
So as the US and European markets face their old highs we would be facing the abc correction.
Our AUDUSD is touching on 108 the profit taking level and will be having its abc when our ASX200 has its abc, but I expect the AUD to eventually make new highs above 110, the main point in mentioning this is that it is a lot of money flowing into the country, the fifth largest trade currency with Australia only having 1% of global GDP is a mighty effort, anyway this will help the local market, the other part of the mix is the base metals and Copper will remain steady at 430.
So the only element to navigate is a pullback Wed / Thursday, so the logical thing to do here, is lock in some profits and the proactive to look for a few weak markets to short such as HVN.
Just another point, if the AUD is going to climb which companies would benefit from this and which would not?
Trading Quote
"I will not allow yesterday's success to lull me into today's complacency, for this is the greatest foundation of failure." – Og Mandino
Today's Financial Events
Time Currency Detail Forecast Previous
8:00am NZD NZIER Business Confidence -27
9:30am AUD AIG Services Index 49.9
11:30am AUD Trade Balance 1.91B 1.60B
11:30am JPY Average Cash Earnings y/y -0.4% -1.4%
2:30pm AUD Cash Rate 4.75% 4.75%
2:30pm AUD RBA Rate Statement
5th-8th GBP Halifax HPI m/m 0.1% 0.1%
6:00pm EUR Final Services PMI 54.2 54.2
6:30pm GBP Services PMI 53.6 53.8
7:00pm EUR Retail Sales m/m -0.9% 0.7%
12:00am USD Factory Orders m/m 1.1% -1.2%
NOTES:
1. Check the Dividend & Reporting section for your stock on this site before trading
2. Prices may change as this report is written while markets are closing/trading
3. Always think things out for yourself, we are only here to bounce ideas around.
4. Traders, we would like to inform you that content (Charts) published on FOREX GOLD SP500 OIL will not be updated from Friday July 1st till July 15th 2011. The EarlyBird will do its best to cover these until the 15th July.
Want to Get EarlyBird Every Day? Register for your Technical Anlysis Report 72Hours free trial or buy 1Month (includes 30 minute coaching: $19.95)
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02 Trading results deliver the good oil
One of our traders happily sent in his trade results table for the last 3 months.
He has been using the ASX & CFD Day and Weekly Trading Strategies. As you can see he has used the Daily Robo for CBA only, but the Daily and Weekly strategies were applied to a number of stocks.
Here's the running total:
Original Bank is $30,000
– $10,000 for each category (DAILY/DAILY ROBO/WEEKLY)
Results Total Apr May June
DAILY $5,646 -1,551.93 2,684.52 4,513.89
DAILY ROBO CBA $3,157 1,184.21 2,272.63 -300.00
WEEKLY $8,283 7,028.47 -1,224.31 2,479.30
Total Profit $17,087 6,660.75 3,732.84 6,693.19
%YTD 56.96% 22.20% 12.44% 22.31%
Disclaimer: past results can not be a guarantee of future results.
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International/Forex: on holidays for 2 weeks
Our European Analyst is enjoying his northern hemisphere summer holidays. So we'll bring you Forex/oil/Gold/S&P500 ElliottWave coverage again week after next.
Want to follow our Forex PLUS Gold/Oil/S&P500?
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03 New Financial Year Sale! 1 Year at Super Special Price!
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