A Leading Technical Analysis Video ‘CFDs Trading Strategy Report’ 
In-depth Analysis DJI SP500 FSTE SPI ASX200 Gold Copper Oil Forex AUDUSD EURUSD Dollar & CFD Trades FREE TRIAL

EarlyBird – Technical Analysis CFD Trading Report – The Day Ahead

Dow Jones – 11, 800 +2.31%
Base Metals Positive
US Gold CFD: 1650
Oil WTI CFD: 91.63
Copper CFD: 345
US Dollar CFD: 76.20
EURUSD 1.3947
AUDUSD 1.0480
Dow Jones CFD 11,900
S&P500 CFD: 1,252
FTSE 100 CFD: 5550
SPI CFD 4275

US News
NEW YORK -(Dow Jones)- U.S. stocks jumped Monday, pushing the Nasdaq Composite into positive territory for the year and the Standard & Poor's 500-stock index to the cusp of it, though stocks moved off session highs in late trade.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average advanced 78 points, or 0.7%, to 11889 in late-afternoon action. Caterpillar was leading blue chips, gaining 4.8% after the maker of construction and mining equipment reported third-quarter earnings that beat expectations and raised its outlook for the year.

The Standard & Poor's 500-stock index added 12 points, or 1%, to 1251, led by materials, financial and technology stocks. The index was 0.55% below break-even for 2011 as of late afternoon. The Nasdaq Composite gained 55 points, or 2.1%, to 2693.

Investors reacted to a set of merger announcements and were heartened by the lack of new negatives from Europe, whose sovereign-debt crisis has wracked investors for months.

CFD Commodities

US Gold CFD: 1650
The trend up, will either create a corrective pattern now on the 1650 or will go to the SG2 1672 first then come back to the 1650 for a corrective pattern. You should expect the price to at least have a small correction at 1650 (abc) at 1650 before pushing to SG2.
Remember that the 1660 is the 61.8% retracement level and then the old supply is through SG2 1665 I 1672 I 1680, and silver is meeting supply now to at 32, but while base metals are expanding upwards the precious metals will continue higher, obviously this is great for BHP etc and we can see the US BHP has further upside from looking at the wave count

Oil WTI CFD: 91.63
Look at Oil create the Tradinglevels Classic pattern across 90 (MediumLevel ML9)
The current move above 90 is the ‘First High’ above the level, it will push up in five smaller waves starting at 84.20 and will reach 93+ once the five waves are completed then a retest of 90 as an abc correction. If support on ML9 is found then we move to the next level 100 (TL1) and consider this a retest of 100 which would be in line with the US BHP wave count, any way as always one support level at a time

Base Metals

US Spot Prices (in l/b)
US Copper:           Last: 3.45+
US Nickel:             Last: 9.07+
US Zinc:                Last: 0.84+
US Aluminium       Last: 0.98+

Copper CFD: 345
There is strong resistance at these current highs 345, 348, 350. Expect the price to slow down into these numbers, this will also slow down other related markets Nickel, AUD, BHP…

Forex

US Dollar CFD: 76.20
We should be seeing support now for the Dollar at 76 and resistance for the Euro 140.
As there are five waves down from the last high 77.77 to current lows this is the same for the Euro to the upside, this slowing down in support and resistance doesn’t mean the end  as there can be another wave to come, this is the same for Indices and we will go over this in the EarlyBird video The other point is that the Euro is moving up on lower volume over the last two sessions, this helps confirm the 140 as resistance

EURUSD 1.3947
TradingLevels: 13930 is the top of SG1 if it maintains support then it will continue to testing the Midpoint 13950, if support is found on the Midpoint trade long to SG2 with the 13972 as the profit taking, if this 72 finds support trade up again. If the 13930 (13927) fails to hold then look short, but getting through SG1 levels is normally bouncy.
Elliott Wave: Count five waves up from the 13655 low to the current high, which can go to 140, in this five waves we are in the last 5^th wave which starts from the around the 13820, which can be completed at 13950 this would only be confirmed if the price broke down through 13920 – 139. The reality is that 13930 has support
Trading Strategy: Trading the Sublevels as a possible retest of 139 is possible .

AUDUSD 1.0480
TradingLevels: The test of the 1.05 is under way and expect a reaction and a corrective pattern here, not a trend.. Expect the normal TradingLevels pattern, Reaction, Support, First High, ABC correction at 1.05, the number 5 is the second strongest number psychologically.  
Elliott Wave: There are two ways to count the impulse wave up, one version is covered on the Elliott Charts in the AUDUSD section and the other here in the EarlyBird, but for the short term it doesn’t matter as the price will be working the 1.50 level
Trading Strategy: Working trades around a whole number like 1.05 we need to also work with the smaller levels both sides of the 1.05 the SG1 above and the SG2 below

Indices

Dow Jones CFD 11,900
TradingLevels: 12,000 Resistance
Elliott Wave: The 61.8% retracement level from May 12,876 to the current low Oct 10,404 is roughly 11,930, so we can accept 12,000 as a top, however if the 12,000 has the normal corrective pattern (abc) then finds supports, then we can expect a much bigger move in the Dow. We can and will also be looking at other markets like the Dow Transports, its 61.8% and closet largest number is 5000, both the 5000 and the 12000 are also supply levels (sellers) and this would be true for other markets and Indices, so we have to expect the market to slow down into these numbers, if they find support then fine, if not they will become the resistances and we are short again
Trading Strategy:  Expecting the Indices to slow down into these large numbers, we can expect this in the Currencies and Metals.

S&P500 CFD: 1,252
TradingLevels: Allow time for the normal corrective pattern to unfold at the Midpoint 1250, if after three swings, abc pattern the price finds support then trade to 1272 and exit. If the 1250 fails to develop support then a top is in place. The squaring of the corrective pattern at 1200 can get the price to 1280  
Wave count: counting five wave up from 1200 last low, the current intraday high is either wave three or five, if its three then expect and abc at the Midpoint 1250 then another smaller five waves up to 1272 SG2, if the price move down below 1227 then a top is in place, but of course from a trading point of view that’s too late so work the 1250 and understand the levels above and below the 1250 as 1253 and 1248 being group1 and 2
Trading Strategy: wait and work the sublevels

FTSE 100 CFD: 5550
TradingLevels: There is plenty of resistance at this high 5555
Elliott Wave: Five waves up completed from the 5350 to the current high
The 5600 is the 61.8% retracement level
Trading Strategy: Look for weakness from this high, the 5530 I 5520 I 5510 SG1 will create support from a bouncy price action, but if true weakness is going to come in from this high then look for Impulse waves down (five wave structures on the intraday chart) Otherwise wait for the 5550 to become support before trading higher

SPI CFD 4275
TradingLevels: Expect weakness to start here 4272 Lock in 75% profits
Elliott Wave: Impulse wave up, counting the five waves up from the last low  4115 that should complete into 4300 – 4330+
Trading Strategy: There is resistance ahead from 4272 - 4333

Summary

The DJI SP500 FSTE are at or close to their 61.8% retracement levels from the May highs, these levels are also supply (sellers) levels, there are also wave counts that also complete in these areas, we have to expect resistance. Yes ASX stocks will run up while the Indices are at highs, but understand there is resistance ahead and profits on longs need protection.

If Indices, after a corrective pattern find support on their respective levels Dow 12,000 ASX 200 4300 we will go long.

Base metals, precious metals and currencies are also at their resistance levels, so all markets will work together, the AUD at 1.04 the Euro at 140, Copper 350 Gold 1650 and so on.

Weekly Cycle; Tuesday morning is profit taking with the trend resuming afternoon

Trading Quote
Your imagination is as good and as deep as your pockets

Today's Financial Events
Time     Currency   Detail     Forecast    Previous
  
8:45am  NZD        CPI q/q    0.8% 1.0%  
9:00am  EUR        ECB President Trichet Speaks      
10:00am  AUD        CB Leading Index m/m     -0.1%  
10:00am  AUD        RBA Deputy Gov Battellino Speaks      
5:00pm  CHF        UBS Consumption Indicator     0.79  
5:00pm  EUR        GfK German Consumer Climate    5.1 5.2  
7:00pm  EUR        Italian Retail Sales m/m    0.1% -0.1%  
7:30pm  GBP        Current Account    -9.9B -9.4B  
7:30pm  GBP        BBA Mortgage Approvals    36.3K 35.2K  
7:45pm  GBP        BOE Gov King Speaks      
11:30pm  CAD        Core Retail Sales m/m    0.4% 0.0%  
11:30pm  CAD        Retail Sales m/m    0.5% -0.6%  
12:00am  CAD        BOC Rate Statement      
12:00am  CAD        Overnight Rate    1.00% 1.00%  
12:00am  EUR        Belgium NBB Business Climate     -9.4  
12:00am  USD        S&P/CS Composite-20 HPI y/y    -3.6% -4.1%  
1:00am  USD        CB Consumer Confidence    46.2 45.4  
1:00am  USD        OFHEO HPI m/m    0.1% 0.8%  
1:00am  USD        Richmond Manufacturing Index    2 -6  
3:30am  GBP        MPC Member Bean Speaks 

NOTES:
1. Check the Dividend & Reporting section for your stock on this site before trading
2. Prices may change as this Technical Analysis report is written from 3.30 – 6.30AM
3. Always think things out for yourself, we are only here to bounce ideas around.

Good Morning & Good Luck!

A Leading Technical Analysis Video ‘CFD Trading Strategy Report’ 
In-depth Analysis DJI SP500 FSTE SPI ASX200 Gold Copper Oil Forex AUDUSD EURUSD Dollar & CFD Trades FREE TRIAL

EarlyBird – Technical Analysis CFD Trading Report – The Day Ahead

Dow Jones – 12,055 +1.86%
Base Metals Positive
US Gold CFD: 1763
Oil WTI CFD: 94
Copper CFD: 357
US Dollar CFD: 76.90
EURUSD 1.3850
AUDUSD 1.04
Dow Jones CFD 12,000
S&P500 CFD: 1260
FTSE 100 CFD: 5775
SPI CFD 4270

News
NEW YORK (Dow Jones)--U.S. stocks advanced Thursday, driven higher by Greece's apparent reversal of plans for a referendum on its financial bailout and by a surprise rate cut by the European Central Bank.

CFD Commodities

US Gold CFD: 1763
Gold should find it’s high into the SG2 levels (1765 I 1772 I 1780) with the 17772 the important price point, if there is an extension higher the 1800 would see the selling.
The SG2 is more in line with stocks completing their rallies

Oil WTI CFD: 94
Oil is making a new high as mentioned yesterday, this is in line with Indices moving higher, but Indices are still considered in a rally. The rally in Oil as a wave five would be the same count for OSH and WPL to make one more new high as a fifth wave, the OSH is up against the MediumLevel 6.50 if this was going to make a new high then Oil would need to get above the 95, the normal price points are 96.50, 97.72, 98.

Base Metals

US Spot Prices (in l/b)
US Copper:           Last: 3.59+
US Nickel:             Last: 8.33-
US Zinc:                Last: 0.88+
US Aluminium       Last: 0.94+

Copper CFD: 357
Same - While the price is above 350 the Midpoint then the Metals are positive and under 350 they are negative.

Forex

US Dollar CFD: 76.90
All markets are still in a ABC correction as is the Dollar, so from the 77.80+ high a few days ago the Zigzag pattern down is the abc correction , it’s in its latter stages, when it finds support on 77.20 it can be traded long, the 76.50 is the supporting area

EURUSD 1.3850
TradingLevels: The Elliott Wave count is  a little higher, this is a corrective rally in line with US Indices and is essentially a retest of the nearest largest number 140, the wave count suggests it may not get to that price but we should leave it on the table.
Elliott Wave: Count the five waves from the last low around 1.3660, the price is in the third wave now, this means the price need to go through wave four and five which should see it up higher above around the 139, once these five waves complete the price should turn down
Trading Strategy: 1.38 and 1.3772 as support, use the sublevels to trade, depending when you get to the market, the SG1 as tested support of the Midpoint 13850

AUDUSD 1.04
TradingLevels: In the bigger picture the range price points as support or resistance are 10272 and 10772. Support on 1.03 suggests the next level 1.05
Elliott Wave: Look for three swings up, abc above 105 the 61.8% is around 10572 (SG2) but the support starts at 1.05 and that should be the trading target, short term traders need to use the sublevels as support SG1 10430 and the Midpoint 10450 with the exit at 10472 and 80 SG2
Trading Strategy: Look for retested support on 10430, take part profit at 10450 wait for support and trade to 65 and 72, The Elliott count can have the end of this structure at the SG2 10472, Count the five waves up from the 103

Indices

Dow Jones CFD 12,000
TradingLevels: The 61.8% retracement level is near the 12,000, the 12,100 is the first supply area and the real support is the old high or just below at the 12,172 SG2 area
Elliott Wave: There are two ways of looking at the wave count but they both come to the same conclusion and that is they should finish their rally around these highs 12,000 to 12,100 as the Wave 2 rally
Trading Strategy:  The price should start working lower from the 12,100 area but we need the evidence in the wave structure to the downside first, we also need to the US Dollar complete its abc correction and move above the 77.20 and of course the Euro following the SP500 and the Dow, the Gold Market should also top at 1772 area, any way we just have to wait and see if it occurs and look for the set up to short

S&P500 CFD: 1260
TradingLevels: Resistance 1272 the 61.8% is around the 1262
Wave count: Wave 2 rally that should complete into SG2 (1265 I 1272 I 1280)
Trading Strategy: Patiently waiting for evidence of a turn down shortly as Wave 2 rally ends

FTSE 100 CFD: 5775
TradingLevels: Resistance 5600 the 61.8% is just above the 5600
Elliott Wave: ABC rally for Wave 2 in the later stages
Trading Strategy: Waiting for evidence of a turn, this will probably come sometime after the G20

SPI CFD 4270
TradingLevels: The 4272 SG2 and 4300 are the resistance a move above this would see the resistance or rather failing support at 4330 SG1 The current price and the 4320 is the 50 – 62% retracement levels
Elliott Wave: Wave 2 rally in its later stages
Trading Strategy: Expecting a turn down from the around the 4272 to 4350      

Summary

Markets move up but we consider this still a rally to each market 61.8% zones as a Wave 2 not Wave 4. We don’t have any evidence that the Wave 2 is over.
The ECB cut rates and the G20 talks, this will either create a spike or a turn in the market creating the top of Wave 2, as you can understand it’s tricky navigating through this, but we have to trade less or stand aside until we can see the evidence of the first small degree impulse wave (five waves) to the downside to confirm the top of Wave 2.These comments are for nearly all markets.

The normal flow of events in the weekly cycle is Thursday being down with the selling volume diminishing in the afternoon and Friday morning buying volume with the afternoon session closing higher on higher volume and the follow through on Monday as the bull day, but we are not in normal time as there is too much outside influence that causes markets to spike this way and that, so until we have a clear direction and we are looking for the Wave 2 to complete so we can short, but as mentioned we need the set up to fall into place.

Just on another note, if the US wave count is correct and we are indeed heading into an Intermediate Wave (3) it is likely that ASIC may ban short selling of CFD providers, if that is the case then your CFD Provider will simply ask you to exit your short positions. But this does take away the opportunity to short, so if this is of interest to you then you need to have other products to short at a moment’s notice, as not all products can be banned, if you would like to prepare for this then email me and I will put you in touch with other companies locally. This banning did occur in the last Intermediate Wave (3) in the GFC and as mentioned we can be moving into that position now, this current Wave 1 down and the Current rally Wave 2 is part of the Intermediate Wave (3) the beginning of it.

Trading Quote
Don’t worry about what the markets are going to do, worry about what you are going to do in response to the markets

Today's Financial Events
Time     Currency   Detail     Forecast    Previous
  
11:30am  AUD        RBA Monetary Policy Statement      
Day 2  ALL        G20 Meetings      
8:00pm  EUR        Final Services PMI    47.2 47.2  
9:00pm  EUR        PPI m/m    0.3% -0.1%  
10:00pm  CAD        Employment Change    20.3K 60.9K  
10:00pm  CAD        Unemployment Rate    7.2% 7.1%  
10:00pm  EUR        German Factory Orders m/m    0.3% -1.4%  
11:30pm  CAD        Building Permits m/m    2.7% -10.4%  
11:30pm  USD        Non-Farm Employment Change    98K 103K  
11:30pm  USD        Unemployment Rate    9.1% 9.1%  
11:30pm  USD        Average Hourly Earnings m/m    0.2% 0.2%  
1:00am  CAD        Ivey PMI    56.2 55.7  
4:00am  USD        FOMC Member Tarullo Speaks  

NOTES:
1. Check the Dividend & Reporting section for your stock on this site before trading
2. Prices may change as this Technical Analysis report is written from 3.30 – 6.30AM
3. Always think things out for yourself, we are only here to bounce ideas around.

Good Morning & Good Luck!

A Leading Technical Analysis Video ‘CFD Trading Strategy Report’ 
In-depth Analysis DJI SP500 FSTE SPI ASX200 Gold Copper Oil Forex AUDUSD EURUSD Dollar & CFD Trades FREE TRIAL

EarlyBird – Technical Analysis CFD Trading Report – The Day Ahead

Dow Jones – 11,746 -1.34%
Base Metals Negative
US Gold CFD: 1740
Oil WTI CFD: 100
Copper CFD: 340
US Dollar CFD: 78.10
EURUSD 1.35
AUDUSD 1.00
Dow Jones CFD 11,860
S&P500 CFD: 1220
FTSE 100 CFD: 5400
SPI CFD 4300

News
Global stocks break down… Europeans arrange more meetings, fingers crossed.

CFD Commodities

US Gold CFD: 1740
The price retests SG2 1765 | 1772 | 1780 as resistance and edges down nicely and silver retests 34.00 and drops, the retests of these levels are the first short position entries.
For gold the 1750 and the 1720 can also be used, the 1700 and then the MediumLevel 1650, all as retested price points for shorts, but it’s the 1650 and the 1500 that are the MediumLevels to really work as resistance.
As mentioned earlier this week Silver the TL3 30.00 is the Major level you need as resistance, you can also work Minor Group1 (MG1) each level as retested resistance but don’t be in a rush, once 32.00 is locked in as resistance then you can move in stronger

Oil WTI CFD: 100
The 103 should be the top, especially if the US Indices break lower which is now possible as the base and precious metals are breaking down, but as always evidence is required and that is the 100 retested as resistance and the wave structure down needs to display small impulse waves which seems to be the case so far but it’s early days

Base Metals

US Spot Prices (in l/b)
US Copper:           Last: 3.40-
US Nickel:             Last: 8.13-
US Zinc:                Last: 0.86-
US Aluminium       Last: 0.92-

Copper CFD: 340
The move below 345 creates the bearish pattern, this is very important as it creates the lead for the ASX200, we can look to short.

Forex

US Dollar CFD: 78.10
The US dollar hasn’t really moved, it has sort of corrected somewhat and there maybe more to come (back to 77.72) but it looks reasonable strong as it hasn’t really pulled back, so expect a move up more so than a move down and this would line up with the opposite move in the US Indices, this in turn would make the rally correction in the Euro shallow but that’s nothing new.

EURUSD 1.35
TradingLevels: When 135 becomes resistance then short, also use the sublevels SG2 134772 once this is resistance short
Elliott Wave: The abc was shallow and now that the metals have broken down the SP500 will follow and so will the Euro
Trading Strategy: 135 as resistance look for short trade set ups also the SG2 Midpoint etc and the Daily Robo again, the weekly Robo is triggered at the failing of 135 The price can pick up speed now if the SP500 falls out of bed so to speak.

AUDUSD 1.00
TradingLevels: Moving through the Major TradingLevel TL1 / 1.00 in line with the wave count and the base metals and the US indices etc
Elliott Wave: Wave (iii) down is obviously underway
Trading Strategy: As you know the 1.00 is a big number and there will be loads of buyers and sellers at this number, however the price should move lower. Longer term traders just continue to short with stops above the 1.01 and short term traders need to work the sublevels

Indices

Dow Jones CFD 11,860
TradingLevels: The price moved through support 11,972 SG2 and 12,000 and then retested and failed the perfect pattern to short
Elliott Wave: The overnight moves create the bearish bias count and that is the series of waves one’s and two’s to the downside
Trading Strategy:  Short retests. The 11500 is the MediumLevel, the next important is 11,800 and the next 11,650, but as you know the Dow likes to move to each 100 points and we would trade within this 100 points, but this is also the time to get position for the long term downside to 10,000 we will be looking to build a short trade from the break of 12,000 but be prepare for large swings do not over trade with large positions that force you to have stops too close

S&P500 CFD: 1220
TradingLevels: The weight has shifted below the balance line 1250 expect a bounce off the 1200 but should stay with SG1 1230 and then work lower
Wave count: Unfolding waves one’s and two’s to the down side, create the 1293 as the Wave (2) rally high so this is Wave (3) down starting now
Trading Strategy: Short

FTSE 100 CFD: 5400
TradingLevels: the failed retest of 5500 creates further pressure downwards and the next is 5300 as you know it takes time to work through the price levels, however the Elliott count would suggest the price to pick up speed to the downside
Elliott Wave: Lower highs through Nov create the unfolding of a series of waves one’s and two’s this is now confirming, expect the market to pick up speed over the weeks ahead
Trading Strategy: Long term short position should be the consideration 

SPI CFD 4200
TradingLevels: Now we are working with 4200 the centre of Minor Group1 if this become the resistance this time around then expect 4000 the MediumLevel to come into play
Elliott Wave: The US markets have moved down in line with base metals so we can expect the same here
Trading Strategy: Look for short trade set ups, we are expecting global Indices to pick up speed to the down side this will create further weakness here, but you still need to work each level and subgroups

Summary

As your aware there is weakness air.
Global Indices are now rolling over, IF correct, this means the Oct highs are the top of Intermediate Wave (2) or (b) and Wave (3) or (c) is now under way either way its down for the months ahead. That said you know the11,500 MediumLevel for the Dow has been an important level, so from a TradingLevels perspective until this level is the resistance the larger picture hasn’t broken down. Working with this understanding will help not to over commit to the downside for the longer term, in the shorter term the Triangle pattern for the Dow hasn’t really broken down either, it’s just that the first level of support at 11,972 SG2 or 12,000 has broken and this is of course significant as it’s the first step in the process. The 11,800 (mTL8) is the next important level as retested resistance.

Base Metals and precious metals have also broken down and oil should now have a top in play. And the currencies are also in line with the Indices so we are net short in the markets, we have been quietly building short positions in the ASX during the week and we will continue to do that.

This would also be the point to protect any long positions you have in the markets, you need to do something now, this is the time to protect portfolios etcetera, if we are correct then we can expect months of downside to come.

Trading Quote

Stock market bubbles don't grow out of thin air. They have a solid basis in reality, but reality as distorted by a misconception

Today's Financial Events
Time     Currency   Detail     Forecast    Previous
  

6:00pm  EUR        German PPI m/m    0.1% 0.3%  
7:00pm  EUR        ECB President Draghi Speaks      
11:00pm  CAD        Core CPI m/m    0.2% 0.5%  
11:00pm  CAD        CPI m/m    0.1% 0.2%  
12:15am  USD        FOMC Member Dudley Speaks      
12:30am  CAD        Leading Index m/m    0.2% -0.1%  
2:00am  USD        CB Leading Index m/m    0.5% 0.2%  
5:15am  USD        FOMC Member Fisher Speaks

NOTES:
1. Check the Dividend & Reporting section for your stock on this site before trading
2. Prices may change as this Technical Analysis report is written from 3.30 – 6.30AM
3. Always think things out for yourself, we are only here to bounce ideas around.

 Technical Analysis CFDs Day Trading Report- TradingLounge

Good Morning & Good Luck!

A Leading Technical Analysis Video ‘CFD Trading Strategies Report’ 
In-depth Analysis DJI SP500 FSTE SPI ASX200 Gold Copper Oil Forex AUDUSD EURUSD Dollar & CFD Trades FREE TRIAL

EarlyBird – Technical Analysis CFD Trading Report – The Day Ahead



Dow Jones – 11,304 -1.64% (7AM Price)
Base Metals Negative
US Gold CFD: 1690
Oil WTI CFD: 96.50
Copper CFD: 327
US Dollar CFD: 79
EURUSD 1.3350
AUDUSD 97.10
Dow Jones CFD 11,300
S&P500 CFD: 1190
FTSE 100 CFD: 5130
SPI CFD 4030

News
U.S. stocks tumbled Wednesday as surprisingly poor demand at a German government-bond auction and weak Chinese data weighed on investor sentiment.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average fell 160 points, or 1.4%, to 11333 in midday trading, after falling as many as 215 points. The Dow's early declines puts the index on pace for a third straight decline, following a two-day fall of 2.6% that left the Dow at a five-week low. With Wednesday's fall, the Dow has now given up half of its October rally, which saw the blue-chip index log its biggest month of gains since 2002.

CFD Commodities

US Gold CFD: 1690
As you know the move up is being counted as a wave iv) rally and didn’t quite get to the targets as gold followed Indices and the Dollar move up, this is all normal flow, however you have to be a bit careful with wave fours as they are normally more complicated that wave two rallies, so in this case the move up may only be the first leg of three swings, the current move down from the 1710 as the second, that said if any of the levels in  SG2 (1780\ 1772 | 1765 become resistance then build the trade into these, or you could even , but with higher risk short any second failed retest of 1700, this is why its good not to over trade and build in positions at different prices and if the trade works against you just unwind each one at the right time and if the market then moves through the levels in your favour then build then back in again, it’s about being flexible at the right time and with the position sizing Less is More.
Once this wave four is complete we can expect gold to make new lows, the US dollar reaching 80 would be good to keep in mind

Sliver should now stay under the last high 33

Oil WTI CFD: 96.50
Much the same - Oil follows stock and this is a bounce of the Midpoint mTL5 | 95.00 as mentioned before once Oil is under 95 as resistance then we can consider the main trend up broken. Traders can use the 98.00 | 97.72 | 97.00 | 96.50 | 96.00 then the 95.00 as the main resistance

Base Metals

US Spot Prices (in l/b)
US Copper:           Last: 3.28-
US Nickel:             Last: 7.43-
US Zinc:                Last: 0.86-
US Aluminium       Last: 0.89-

Copper CFD: 327
Copper is sinking into Minor Group1 330 | 320 | 310 the 320 is the all-important pivot, this as resistance seals it fait to 300 TL3 the Major TradingLevel
The Elliott Wave pattern down from 372  the current low, is still not a good looking impulse wave it still has possible corrective subtleties, which could see a bounce when the ASX200 touches on 4000, so Copper on 300 and ASX 200 around or lower than 4000 and the Chinese markets on a double bottom, will likely put our Australian short trades at risk, any way we have time to work this out.

Forex

US Dollar CFD: 79
The price should dance around 79.00 and then move to 80 (TL8) the Major TradingLevel.
Its only natural to expect swings across this level not only in the near term but also in the bigger picture, that said the trend is up and the Elliott count is up so the longer term direction is up for the dollar and down for the Euro.
Finding support on TL8 is significant for the bigger picture for portfolios and holding cash in any other currency, once support has been found and the price can go to 83.00 Minor Group1 and then retest 80 etc., but once the 80 has been tested as support this is yet another signal to move assets around, as mentioned earlier in the year shifting a precent AUD cash into US dollars via a local bank’s foreign currency holding account is part of the overall plan and once support is found on 80 another part in cash can be moved.  

EURUSD 1.3350
TradingLevels: In the bigger picture - On the daily chart there is a trendline of support that should be notes, which cuts through around the 133 group1 level, the price will eventually move through the trend line to 130 and probably retest the trendline, this may not be the case but its something that we should keep in mind when work the smaller degree of the Elliott count
Elliott Wave: Now that the Euro has moved down from the corrective pattern at 135 the Elliott wave analysis is easier to work as corrections can be the weak spot in Elliott analysis, any way check the Elliott count on the charts
Trading Strategy: If you are short from the 135 – SG2 (13480 | 13472 | 13465) then well done. The TLT (Treasuries) Elliott count support the US Dollar moving up and therefore the Euro down and the French and Belgian bond yields are surging and therefore part of the current catalyst as the drivers. Trading the Euro short simply depends on your trading time frame, however the Daily and Weekly and even Monthly Robo are being used here. Otherwise simply trade the sublevels. The Dollar will spend a short time at 79 and more at 80 so you need to line this up with the Euro price points, the trend line mentioned above can be an important technical, but it is 130 and Group1 (133 | 132 |131) seen and understood as a group with the 132 as the pivot (support or resistance) can be very useful, you should expect a hard time here and the same for the Dollar at 80, its best to expect the worst rather than hope for the best, you don’t have control over this, this is not about positive thinking and creating your own futures thoughts in to reality, this is about preparation and opportunity meeting you want in the longer term the 130 as resistance and you want the Group1 to hold the price to 130 for the struggle rather than a strong bounce off the trendline and the 130, so if the price gets through to 130 you don’t want to see it find support back on the top of group1 133, sure it can trade above it but you don’t want it finding support as this create the foundation for a move up. Any way we are not even there yet, so for the short tern expect a bounce off the 133 on arrival

AUDUSD 97.10
TradingLevels: The price is at 97 so you need to give it time, you should be looking at SG1 above 97 and SG2 below 97 as the support and the resistance. The move up is a rally as the Dollar has a quick check of the 79. If your patient and give the price time within the SG1 and SG2 with the 97 as the line in the sand, you will be able to work out when the rally has run out of steam and what price levels the price is trapped at, you do need to understand how to see and work both SG1 and SG2 for a bullish market and a bearish market and a corrective market rally like this. The Elliott wave can be helpful in recognising patterns
Elliott Wave: the small rally up off the lows from SG2 is currently in three waves so this is corrective but it can turn into five waves Impulse, if it is five waves, then after a abc correction there will be another five waves which in turn can take it higher than the SG1, it’s still only 530AM let’s see what the pattern is when I make the video
Trading Strategy: The rally up from SG2 is just that a rally but how far will it go, try and recognise the Elliott pattern then use the levels to work a trade in either direction

Indices

Dow Jones CFD 11,300
TradingLevels: It’s great to see the prices down, because we are short, however the Gap in the futures markets on most Indices is a concern, for the Dow it’s around the 1800. That said we are in a series of wave threes of Intermediate degree and we should expect as mentioned before the market to pick up speed to the downside and that is what we are seeing. There is volume support in the bigger picture up from the lows of Sept under the 11,000, this 11,000 is also the 61.8% retracement level of the Oct run up so the 11,000 say to 10,800 is the general support, this is the next real space to watch for support, so you can image if this next support fails to hold, then we are at 10,000 TL1
Elliott Wave: Minute Wave 3) of Minor Wave 3 of Intermediate Wave (3)
Trading Strategy:  The 11,500 was easy, but it’s always safer to look at the worst case and work down from that. The next short term supports are 11,300 | 11,200 | 11,100
For the intraday trader use the 1300 and the SG2 11,280 | 11,272 | 11,265 the 11,272 is very important as support or resistance a low close to this price  is also the end of an impulse wave down from the 11,500 I will explain this in the video we can see a retest back to 11500 from here?

S&P500 CFD: 1190
TradingLevels: Once the SP500 has SG2 1180 |1172 | 1165 as the resistance then the market is forced down through the next support 1150 the Midpoint and all is on track for lower price towards the 1100 mTL1 ( MinorLevel 1) being trapped under 1200 mTL2 places the price at 1,000 TL1 this is how Group1 works in any degree, this probably is extremely  high when using Group1 like this in a negative market
Wave count: Wave (iii) to the 1150
Trading Strategy: The Gap is not being covered on any of the futures markets, this is a concern but we will stay with the current unfolding impulse waves down, so continue to short the retest of the sublevels

FTSE 100 CFD: 5130
TradingLevels: This large third wave is powerful we will see the prices at 5000 shortly, but expect bounces at all the right places 5100 and the sublevels
Elliott Wave: There is more downside in the impulse wave in line with the US  markets
Trading Strategy: Depending on your strategy time frame, for the bigger picture was to glean small short positions under the 5500 and though Group1 with the aim of waiting for the 5000 to become the retested resistance so we can add to short positions, this still is the case but we don’t know if the 5000 will give us a hard time or not, normally it would however the US indices are in and Intermediate wave (3) down, this is a powerful structure, this is where countries ban short selling

SPI CFD 4030
TradingLevels: There is support around 4000 for the ASX200 and the SPI this is psychological, the 61.8% is at mTL8 | 3800 Indicator will be presenting over sold signals but as always use each level as support and resistance, try and work out the Elliott pattern within the degree time frame you are working and check on the volume to confirm the price action
Elliott Wave: Its more important to work the levels now that the 4000 is on the door step, the Elliot wave count is down
Trading Strategy: Expect the price to sink into 4000. One of the better times to get a position in the SPI is in the US afternoon session, the current daylight saving is on your side, but I guess if you up at that time you may as well trade the Dow as it moves faster.

Summary

The US markets continue to move down and from the Elliott perspective the powerful intermediate Wave (3) is certainly unfolding on track.
The wave 3 up in US treasuries confirms the US Dollar wave count and therefore pushes down the Euro, the Euro and the SP500 | Dow will work in line with the Euro and so will our AUD and ASX.
Traders swap Gold for US Dollars and the base metals are not far behind the precious metals, so all in all, all markets are doing the right thing and we are short, we could of would of should have had more short positions, but we played it safe and took the worst case scenario of a unknown bounce off the 11500 on the Dow but the holding pattern was small and turned out to be nothing to worry about, but I still feel we play the choice technically.
The Intermediate Wave (3) in the Dow is clearing out supports with a flick, the next really supports are the old low from Sept there are orders here traders bought here, they will buy again, there should be a bounce unless something crazy happens which is also possible, the current drivers are the French and Belgian Bonds peaking, but the real problems haven’t started yet, the big fish haven’t been notice yet, how many people does Greece have? Would have to be under 10 Million people, that’s a small problem really… Any way there is support from the 10500 to 11000 for the down this is real and we need to observe this battle of volumes, if the 11500 was retested properly and it still may, however the nromaly flow is a retest of the 11500 and if it fails then the 10,000 is the target the volume support will fade under the selling pressure, the 11,000 is also the 61.8% retracement of the Oct rally, this also see the US Dollar at 80 and the ASX200 at the 4000 but more importantly its 618% of the 2009 rally at 3800 and the Copper market at 300 and then the Chinese Markets at a double bottom, so there is support all around the world, but the wave count in the main markets treasuries, Indices, currencies etc. suggests these supports will disappear  

Trading Quote

Volatility is greatest at turning points, diminishing as a new trend becomes established.-George Soros

Today's Financial Events
Time     Currency   Detail     Forecast    Previous
  
8:45am  NZD        Trade Balance    -454M -751M  
6:00pm  EUR        German Final GDP q/q    0.5% 0.5%  
Tentative  CHF        Employment Level       
Postponed  GBP        Housing Equity Withdrawal q/q    -5.9B -5.8B  
8:00pm  EUR        German Ifo Business Climate    105.5 106.4  
8:30pm  GBP        Revised GDP q/q    0.5% 0.5%  
8:30pm  GBP        Prelim Business Investment q/q     11.6%  
8:30pm  GBP        Index of Services 3m/3m    0.3% 0.4%  
11:00pm  GBP        CBI Industrial Order Expectations    -19 -18  
All Day  USD        Bank Holiday      
12:30am  CAD        Corporate Profits q/q     -4.9%  
1:00am  EUR        Belgium NBB Business Climate    -11.3 -10.4

NOTES:
1. Check the Dividend & Reporting section for your stock on this site before trading
2. Prices may change as this Technical Analysis report is written from 3.30 – 6.30AM
3. Always think things out for yourself, we are only here to bounce ideas around.

Good Morning & Good Luck!