Index Trading Research and Analysis

Dow Jones CFD 11,580
TradingLevels: The bottom line is that while the price is above 11500 the MediumLevels the price is support and we can’t really short
Elliott Wave: The rally should complete about here, that is under the 11650, but the Gap at 11,800 is a bother? That is the 61.8% retracement level and while the price is above 11500 that is possible
Trading Strategy:  Normally, being above 11500 we would be long, but there is more evidence that this is a rally than a bull run so we simply have to tread lightly and be patient

S&P500 CFD: 1190
TradingLevels: Gap target 1212, current resistance mTL2 | 1200 support SG2 1172 zone, we can see that over the last two sessions the price has not really move much to the upside so it is struggling and there is a wave count that can call this move up completed, but only completed as Wave (a) of an abc correction
Wave count: I’m thinking that the move up is only the Wave (a) of an (a) (b) (c) correction
Trading Strategy: Expecting a move down from 1200 to 1172 SG2

FTSE 100 CFD: 5320
TradingLevels: Target Gap 5343 covered, the price has some support a 5272 | 5300 however the price like US Indices has been running out of stream in this area, so there is either a top or a larger corrective pattern to unfold?
Elliott Wave: I have to wonder if the move up is just the Wave (a) of an (a) (b) (c) correction, we have to keep this in mind when the move down starts as an option
Trading Strategy: Looking for your favourite short set up when you see weakness

SPI CFD 4100
TradingLevels: The 4100 as support or resistance is the play, expect a small corrective pattern here, If and when the top of subgroup1 4130 develops as support then you can add to longs, with the target at 4150
Elliott Wave: Yes the 38.2% retracement level is the 4100 (mTL1) however we have to consider the move up as just Wave a) of Wave (iv), do there is Wave b) and Wave c) to come, an abc zigzag pattern, it is possible that the Wave (iv) is completed at 4100 now, but we have to look at all the possibilities when using Elliott and then eliminate them based on evidence.
Trading Strategy: Expect the price to work down below 4100  

CFD Trading Report

Video: http://youtu.be/YqQTX-9Y-Fw

Dow Jones – 11,905 +0.69%  (6.30AM)
Base Metals Negative
US Gold CFD: 1577
Oil WTI CFD: 95.74
Copper CFD: 326
US Dollar CFD: 80.30
EURUSD 1.30
AUDUSD 0.9933
Dow Jones CFD 11880
S&P500 CFD: 1220
FTSE 100 CFD: 5400
SPI CFD 4150

News
U.S. stocks sank for a third straight day as falling commodity prices added to investor NEW YORK -(Dow Jones)- U.S. stocks gained after investors took heart from stronger U.S. economic data, but fell off session highs after the head of the International Monetary Fund stoked fears that Europe's sovereign-debt crisis is worsening.

Stocks rose after the Labour Department said a seasonally adjusted 366,000 workers filed initial jobless claims in the week ended Dec. 10, well below forecasts and the lowest since May 2008. The figures were the latest indication the weak jobs market is slowly building strength. The four-week moving average of new jobless claims fell to its lowest level since July 2008.

CFD Trading Report Commodities

US Gold CFD: 1577
Elliott wave count, finishing wave v) of (iii) into 1560 – 1550 then Wave (iv) a sideways corrective pattern within the range of 1550 – 1600. Once completed then Wave (v) down to 1500.  Wave (iv) can get complicated, it’s a place that short term traders can lose money getting stopped out etc. it can really do your head in, so either stay short with wide stop above 1600 and take part profit here to 1550 or leave Wave (iv) alone once it bounces off 1550

Sliver no change, just the bounce off mTL8 | 28.00 to retest 30.00 then down again. However the rest to 30.00 may not make it that far, study the corrective rally pattern (small wave four) and work with the 29.00 and sublevels around 2900

Oil WTI CFD: 95.74
Oil is vibrating around the Midpoint 95 and will drop lower once completed into Minor Group1 93|92|91 expect the price to bounce around a lot into MG1, its likely to bounce from 93 back to 95, then down into 92 and this is where the support is, sure the is MediumLevel support at 90.00 which is the MediumLevel. We also have to be aware of another wave count, I have mentioned the pattern down in the Global indices can be bullish corrective as it has confirmed the larger downside as yet, so the oil can be a larger ABC pattern down from 100 to 90 and then a move back above 100 in line with Indices making one more new high, this is not a matter of opinions, it’s a wave count that needs to play out one way or the other and we need to be aware of it, I will outline this in today’s video. However at the moment the trend is down and we are trading down, but we must also scale out profits into the 90 and if the 90 becomes the resistance then move back in short, this way we can accommodate any possible uprising in a balanced way 

Base Metals

US Spot Prices (in l/b)
US Copper:           Last: 3.24-
US Nickel:             Last: 8.06+
US Zinc:                Last: 0.83-
US Aluminium       Last: 0.87+

Copper CFD: 326
Base Metals are slightly positive today, we should expect support and bouncing around a lot within Minor Group1 330|320|310 the price should stay under 338 and eventually get trapped further into MG1. As mentioned in Oil an Alternative count across all markets is possible and today is about studying this Alternative count while it has the structure to unfold, this would put copper back retesting 350 supply levels and making the daily pattern sitting on 300 a larger Triangle ABCDE and we would be in the lower end of Wave D now with an Wave E to move up from the 310, this is an Alternative count but must be put on the table until proven otherwise, this would also make the AUDUSD and ASX move higher and we will look at their Alternative structures in line with the US Indices

Forex CFD Trading Report

US Dollar CFD: 80.30
Most markets are having a small wave four rally, so the US Dollar is having its small wave four pull back into the 80 as would naturally be expected, once this pullback is completed another push up to 81 and then another correction back into 80 this would be the creeping topping part of the trend we were talking about yesterday as trends have a beginning middle and end, they are also fractals so they are part of a larger pattern and they contain smaller patterns, the other element is the geometry of nature and the psychology, essentially creating the larger corrective pattern across TL8|80 this is the first high above the level with the ‘Classic Pattern’ after the first high above a level and this one is still playing out, but once completed a larger corrective pattern should unfold, this will give the other markets including stock a chance to rise and this is connected to the Alternative count we are talking about today


EURUSD 1.30
Day Trading: the price is in a small wave four at 130 and wave fours are complicated and best left alone. If SG1 13030 finds support then trade long for the short term, if the 130 becomes the resistance than work the levels in SG2 any shorting would require the 72 as resistance 12972
Elliott Wave: Wave (iv) is unfolding at 130 and potentially can move higher, but it is corrective and once completed move down for wave five (iv)
CFD Trading Report:  : Once this wave four is completed at 130 then it’s down, it’s fine to scalp 10 pips here and there but wave fours don’t bring trends. The bigger picture traders hold short

AUDUSD 0.9933
Day Trading The short term is about retesting 1.00, failing the retest for another probe lower. The current trend pattern up to 1.00 from 9860 is in three waves, i.e. corrective. However corrective patterns can expand so the move up could be only one leg of the corrective pattern, you would need to observe the other currencies and the Indices
Elliott Wave: Wave C of Triangle (E) below 1.00 (see 4 Hour Chart)
CFD Trading Report:  Continue to scalp through the sublevels while around 1.00

CFD Trading Report Indices

Dow Jones CFD 11880
Day Trading: Let’s keep it simply while the price is under 12,000 it’s bearish and above bullish
Elliott Wave: The expected bounce of 11,800 MinorLevel mTL8 is underway and should complete under 12,000 and then move lower through 11,800. As mentioned yesterday the current move down can still be corrective or an impulse wave unfolding in a series on waves ones and twos, we are short until proven otherwise, but we need to be aware of the corrective pattern and line it up with the other markets in case there is a turn up next week.
CFD Trading Report:  :  The resistance is at 12,000 then 11,900 on a failed retest. The support at 11,500 is the critical game changer, as support a bullish Elliott wave count exists the 11,500 as resistance creates the larger bearish pattern Intermediate Wave (3) down only time will tell, however we have to line our trading plan to accommodate both patterns 

S&P500 CFD: 1220
Day Trading: Support 1,200 if support is found on top of Subgroup1 SG1 1230 then expect further upside, if the pivot in SG1 1220 develops as resistance then expect 1200 to be tested
 Wave count: We have two count one bullish as in the charts on the site and one bearish here while the 1250 remain the resistance, it is what occurs above the 1200 support that will create the divide between the two wave counts, as it unfolding there will be degrees of bias and it starts with the pivot 1220 as support or resistance
CFD Trading Report:  : Short term will depend on 1220 as support or resistance

FTSE 100 CFD: 5400
Day Trading Bias short under 5372
Elliott Wave: The pattern at 5400 is corrective, but it can expand, the move up could be only the wave a of an abc corrective pattern the 5372 as resistance would be the safer short
CFD Trading Report:  : If the price gets trapped in SG2 especially the 5372 then short but while its above we have to accommodate a larger abc corrective pattern  

SPI CFD 4150
Day Trading The 4200 is the pivot within Minor Group1 and while the price is under this then the bias is weaker and above as support we would need to be long. From that we can continue to break bias down to the point within your trading time frame, if you’re a sublevel trader you would consider the 4100 as support and the 4150 the Midpoint you would simply be long or short from this number, drilling down you would look at the pattern and volume at the midpoint, you would use your skill of pattern recognition including your understanding of the retest checking the price and confirm that with the volume, then you would scale in accordingly and you know the levels where you have to exit.
Elliott Wave: There are two counts as mentioned in the DJI SP500 but also consider the Elliott wave count on the AUDUSD because the current price on the ASX200 SPI has support off the 4000, so long trade are fine too, you just need to know the price that’s supports the market in your trading time frame you can’t trade without know that price
CFD Trading Report:  : While the price is under the 4172 SG2 the pressure is down, the Midpoint is next, the move up off the 4100 appears to be corrective (three waves) but its early yet. It’s all about the Midpoint being long or short from this price point.

CFD Trading Report Summary

Today is talking about the current small wave four pullback before a move lower and to also talk about the bullish alternative count in the markets, which is a bullish count, while it exists and until proven otherwise we have to include it in our thinking, that is, in our trading decisions.
We may have to turn long next week and this would mean packing up our short trades and catching the train north.

Weekly Cycle, Thursday bearish with selling volume drying up which is the first sign of support, Friday; if Fridays close is strong on higher volume then Monday will be the bull day. This means we would need to see the price and volume increase steadily throughout the day and day traders would move with this. That said, we are expecting this current move up a corrective covering wave four rally and once completed another move down, either way you need to know your price points and the patterns that wrap around your price points as support or resistance and look to the volume to confirm the price action, analysis is one thing, but trading is another and you need to trade what you see and we use the levels, volume and Robo these tools control the risk, they also get you on the right side at the right time, they also let you know where to take profits and place stops.

Trading Quote

The markets are clearly not a random walk. The markets are not even efficient because that assumption implies you can’t make an above-average return. Since some people can do that, I disagree with the assumption.  Monroe Trout

Today's Financial Events
Time     Currency   Detail     Forecast    Previous
 
Tentative  GBP        Nationwide Consumer Confidence    34 36  
7:30pm  EUR        ECB President Draghi Speaks      
9:00pm  EUR        Trade Balance    1.3B 2.1B  
12:30am  CAD        Foreign Securities Purchases    8.23B 7.35B  
12:30am  USD        Core CPI m/m    0.2% 0.1%  
12:30am  USD        CPI m/m    0.1% -0.1%  
3:15am  USD        FOMC Member Evans Speaks      
4:00am  USD        FOMC Member Fisher Speaks

NOTES:
1. Check the Dividend & Reporting section for your stock on this site before trading
2. Prices may change as this Technical Analysis report is written from 3.30 – 6.30AM
3. Always think things out for yourself, we are only here to bounce ideas around.

Good Morning & Good Luck!

CFD Trading Report + Video Techncial Analysis & Day Trading

Trading Strategies

S&P500 CFD: 1215
TradingLevels: The Pivot 1220 within SG1 of 1200 has some small resistance which helps makes the price part of 1200 story and there the 1172 SG2 zone
 Elliott Wave: As you know we cannot confirm intermediate wave (3) down yet. We can’t also rule out the markets making one more new high and the Elliott Wave count on our site reflects this bullish possibility and it may be a week before we can have evidence in the structure. The short term trend is down so being short is the correct trade.
Trading Strategies: Stops at 1233 wait for 1200 to be the retested resistance before adding to shorts.

CFD Index Day Trading Technical Analysis

Dow Jones CFD 11880
Technical Analysis
TradingLevels: The retest pattern to 12,000 is corrective, so new lows should be made under 11,800 also meaning the 11,500 MediumLevel comes back into view and of course this opens a larger door and of course confirms Intermediate Wave (3) is underway
Elliott Wave: The bias for Intermediate Wave (3) is looking stronger than one more new high and it is the Euro that leads the way for the Indices to follow as the fear factor grows the trend down
Day Trading Strategies:  11,872 SG2 Resistance short. The 11,772 could be a small stubborn support to navigate but a quick fall is expected from the structure and the failing retest of 12,000 however work the 11,800 as the resistance as price move quick from 8 to 5 that is 11,800 to 11,500.

CFD Forex Trading Strategies - Technical Analysis - US Dollar Elliott Wave

Dollar Index 4 Hour Chart Elliott Wave
Friday, 16 December 2011 at 6:10:00PM AEST
-impulsive continuation
A recent sharp upward price action suggest that we are in the middle of an Elliott Wave impulsive advance, now towards and above 81.00. Sub-wave (iii) is now in process so we will look for more upside after any pull-back which will probably be a blue wave (iv). Critical/invalidation region of the count is at 79.18

Technical Analysis Elliott Wave Trading Education

Sliver The retest from 28.00 up close to 30.00 can just be the Wave a of an abc correction or that this retest can be completed,Elliott wave four corrections can be complicated sideways patterns. From a trading point of view, there is the safe way and the more proactive way and that would be layering in short positions close to 30.00 and then adding as 29.00 becomes the resistance then 28.00, however you would need to be clear on the management, either keeping the stops above 30.00 (31.37) or work much closer to the corrective pattern, there is no correct way, only your way and the risk you accept.

Trading Strategies Technical Analysis

Elliott Wave Oil WTI CFD: 93.80

Oil, copper gold etc. have much the same wave count, a Elliott Wave four correctional rally that should be short lived. 38.2% is around 96.00
The other aspect is Oil is working the Midpoint 95.00, it’s starting the series of retests from the support of Minor Group1 93.00, the battle at 95 should eventually fail and the price test lower into 90 or at least deeper into MG1
If over the sessions ahead the 95.00 finds support then the short term bias is bullish, however we monitor the 95/96 as the resistance delivered by wave four and deliver our trading strategies from there

Technical Analaysis CFD Forex Day Trading Strategies EURO

EURUSD 1.3010
Technical Analysis
TradingLevels: The corrective pattern on 130 is still going and it’s not tradable while its in SG1 of 130, if it finds support on 1330 then trade long  to 131 area or if the 130 becomes resistance then the corrective pattern is completed and the next move down is under way and the 1.280 and 1.2772 is the important price point
Elliott Wave: The Same - Wave (iv) is unfolding at 130 and potentially can move higher to 131, but it is corrective and once completed move down for wave five (v) of 3
Trading Strategies: Support on 1330 trade long. 1.30 as retested resistance day trading short

Technical Analysis CFD Indices Trading Dow Jones

Dow Jones CFD 11880
Technical Analysis
TradingLevels: The trend is down until proven otherwise, yes there is support on 11,800/11,772 SG2 for the Dow and 1,200 for the SP500 and 4000 for the ASX and the Dollar will stick to 80, so it is a juncture to be careful of a reversal to the upside as we have a wave count to match, as you can see on our SP500 charts.
However there is the case for a large move down from here as I have been talking about in the EarlyBird section and the US Treasuries support this downside in fact they are leading the way down the yields are very weak (when Stocks are Down Yields are Down and Dollar is Up and vice versa) or you can use the TLT; When stocks are up, yields are up, TLT is down and dollar is down; and vice-versa! iShares Barclays 20+ Year Treasury Bond Fund (the Fund) seeks investment results that correspond generally to the price and yield performance of the Barclays Capital U.S. 20+ Year Treasury Bond Index (the Index). The Index measures the performance of public obligations of the United States Treasury that have a remaining maturity of 20 or more years.
Elliott Wave: The bearish count requires 11,800 as the resistance after it finishes bouncing, the SP500 needs 1,200 as resistance, this will take time
Trading Strategies:  Long above 11,772 and short below, wait for these price point to be tested before committing

Technical Analysis Summary

We have to continue to trade small ranges with small position sizing’s, until the market develops a clear direction.
As you know there are two possible wave counts for the US markets and they pivot are the 11,772 for the Dow and 1,200 for the SP500 Day Trading.

The Asian region appears weaker in line with commodities; we should see support on the 4000 for the ASX200 and a possible bounce.

Technical Analysis ;The only lead I can see is from US Treasuries yields to the downside and stocks should fall in line with this and this makes sense as the primary focus is the bond market. But we cannot simply forget about the wave count we have on the SP500. There is nothing we can do at the moment that I can see to cement a direction in the medium term, it is safer to use the daily Robo it is a reasonable way to manage risk and let the market trade for you. Trading Strategies There are stocks going up and stocks going down, but it doesn’t really matter as long as you set the orders up in front of the market and let the market trade for you. The Robo has a high probability to get you into profit from the entry, so if you take 30% profit by 11.00AM then you have a free trade, then continue normal with the trade using the Robo, levels and volume.

CFD Index Trading - Technical Analysis SPI SP500 FSTE

S&P500 CFD: 1212
Technical Analysis
TradingLevels: 1,200 support, also the 61.8% retracement support and we are seeing support above 1,200 within SG1 {1230|1220|1210} As you know we have a wave count for the upside off the 61.8% 1,200 so while the price is above 1,200 we have to seriously consider the prospect of a rally.  If and when the 1,200 becomes resistance then we can look at a larger bearish picture.
It’s not that we are going to miss anything, our main job is not to lose money while the structure develops a direction
Elliott Wave count: Working two structures one bullish and one bearish, one of them will become clear for the main trend, but in the meantime the smaller trend is down so short term bias is down
Trading Strategies: bring stops down to 1227

SPI CFD 4080
Technical Analysis
TradingLevels: If 4100 becomes the resistance then the price would work lower to 4000 where it would likely bounce up in three waves
Elliott Wave: The pattern on 4000 over the Oct Nov period is open for interpretation, however it is forming a triangle pattern and that means when its completed a move down will occur. So what does completed look like, well a triangle in Elliott theory is five swings abcde and so far we have the abcd the current low can be the wave d, so eventually we would see a wave e up, how far would the wave e go, the 4200 is the pivot within Minor Group1 so I could see it finding support on 4200 based off the current low the 61.8% would be the 4200.
Day Trading Strategies: Move stops down to last high above 4100 after the second retest of 4100. New trades need to work SG2 {4080|4072|4065} then the Midpoint, there is a daily trend line cutting through the 4030 – 4050 are double check this. Essentially one the market opens and settle being on the right side of 4072 is the starting line.

S&P500 CFD: 1238
TradingLevels: Well the rally sure did come in quick based of US housing data, the current price 1235 is at the 50% retracement level of the Dec 9 drop, it can fail from here, but we should expect a little more upside to 1250, however, support must be found on top of SG1 1230 before 1250 can be viewed. Another point is that all the supply (sellers) start above 1230 so what you have seen over night is not what you’re going to get now, if the market is going to move up it will creep and short trades can be looked for soon
 Wave count: Working the two structures still until the medium pattern becomes clear, the move up can be a corrective rally or wave 1 of a larger five wave structure, so keep all day trading in the sublevels
Trading Strategies: expecting a move down to 1230 as wave four then a push higher for wave five, the resistance is 1250 these are sublevels, there are MicroLevels if your day trading.
S&P500 CFDs Day Trading Strategies

CFD Trading Strategies Forex Elliott Wave EURUSD

Elliott Wave EURUSD 1.3080
TradingLevels: From a tradinglevels perspective the current pattern at 131 is an ‘Overshoot’ pattern, simply meaning the price did not react a 131 on arrival it over shot it and the distance it overshot is the distance it will roughly fall back this is normally the first of more swings and the point being is that once it stops swinging and finds the 131 as support or resistance is where you pick up the direction, the swings will diminish into 131. The Elliott wave  has an ending structure just above the 131, however you can use the tradinglevels to confirm and position your trades in a much safer way, it is nice to have the Elliott and the levels in the same direction, however when it comes to putting money down you are safer working off the levels as support or resistance because you are working with the volume and the psychology
Elliott Wave: Wave (iv) should be completed now above the 131 however the US Indices have further to push up…
Trading Strategies: if you were long on the 13030 SG1 then you have caught the trend up, but you would have also scaled out at SG2 and 131… and now waiting to see if the Wave (iv) is completed or is there further upside, either way you would monitor the unfolding price action across 131 to develop as support or resistance, if it is support then use SG1 if its resistance use SG2

CFD Commodities

US Gold CFD: 1630
The move above 1600 helps clear up structure and target to the 38.2% at 1630 of course take this target with a pick of salt, lets allow the Elliott wave c of (iv) play out the wave c will have five waves

Sliver CFDs has not made a new high and is likely to stay under the 30.00 TL3, this also make silver weaker but we knew this already and is the preferred short

CFD Commodities US Gold CFD  Sliver CFDs Trading

Forex EURUSD 1.2715
TradingLevels:
The EURAUD is and has been the better short.
The EURUSD has support at 1.25 from the Weekly trendline that said the Euro is in a large wave three down and old lows at 1.20 should be reached. In the bigger picture it is worth noting that the Euro is entering Minor Group1 1.30|1.20|1.10 to me this means the Euro will reach parity with the Dollar.
Elliott Wave: in the Wave 3 down into the 1.25 weekly trend line is about right
Trading Strategies: Scalpers; On the Open work the 1,2720 (72) be on the right side of this number, add on the failed retest of 1.27. you can see the Elliott Wave count on the 1 hour chart. The 1,2650 is a target low
Weekly Robo traders hold short.