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In-depth Analysis DJI SP500 FSTE SPI ASX200 Gold Copper Oil Forex AUDUSD EURUSD Dollar & CFD Trades FREE TRIAL

EarlyBird – Technical Analysis CFD Trading Report – The Day Ahead



Dow Jones – 11,304 -1.64% (7AM Price)
Base Metals Negative
US Gold CFD: 1690
Oil WTI CFD: 96.50
Copper CFD: 327
US Dollar CFD: 79
EURUSD 1.3350
AUDUSD 97.10
Dow Jones CFD 11,300
S&P500 CFD: 1190
FTSE 100 CFD: 5130
SPI CFD 4030

News
U.S. stocks tumbled Wednesday as surprisingly poor demand at a German government-bond auction and weak Chinese data weighed on investor sentiment.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average fell 160 points, or 1.4%, to 11333 in midday trading, after falling as many as 215 points. The Dow's early declines puts the index on pace for a third straight decline, following a two-day fall of 2.6% that left the Dow at a five-week low. With Wednesday's fall, the Dow has now given up half of its October rally, which saw the blue-chip index log its biggest month of gains since 2002.

CFD Commodities

US Gold CFD: 1690
As you know the move up is being counted as a wave iv) rally and didn’t quite get to the targets as gold followed Indices and the Dollar move up, this is all normal flow, however you have to be a bit careful with wave fours as they are normally more complicated that wave two rallies, so in this case the move up may only be the first leg of three swings, the current move down from the 1710 as the second, that said if any of the levels in  SG2 (1780\ 1772 | 1765 become resistance then build the trade into these, or you could even , but with higher risk short any second failed retest of 1700, this is why its good not to over trade and build in positions at different prices and if the trade works against you just unwind each one at the right time and if the market then moves through the levels in your favour then build then back in again, it’s about being flexible at the right time and with the position sizing Less is More.
Once this wave four is complete we can expect gold to make new lows, the US dollar reaching 80 would be good to keep in mind

Sliver should now stay under the last high 33

Oil WTI CFD: 96.50
Much the same - Oil follows stock and this is a bounce of the Midpoint mTL5 | 95.00 as mentioned before once Oil is under 95 as resistance then we can consider the main trend up broken. Traders can use the 98.00 | 97.72 | 97.00 | 96.50 | 96.00 then the 95.00 as the main resistance

Base Metals

US Spot Prices (in l/b)
US Copper:           Last: 3.28-
US Nickel:             Last: 7.43-
US Zinc:                Last: 0.86-
US Aluminium       Last: 0.89-

Copper CFD: 327
Copper is sinking into Minor Group1 330 | 320 | 310 the 320 is the all-important pivot, this as resistance seals it fait to 300 TL3 the Major TradingLevel
The Elliott Wave pattern down from 372  the current low, is still not a good looking impulse wave it still has possible corrective subtleties, which could see a bounce when the ASX200 touches on 4000, so Copper on 300 and ASX 200 around or lower than 4000 and the Chinese markets on a double bottom, will likely put our Australian short trades at risk, any way we have time to work this out.

Forex

US Dollar CFD: 79
The price should dance around 79.00 and then move to 80 (TL8) the Major TradingLevel.
Its only natural to expect swings across this level not only in the near term but also in the bigger picture, that said the trend is up and the Elliott count is up so the longer term direction is up for the dollar and down for the Euro.
Finding support on TL8 is significant for the bigger picture for portfolios and holding cash in any other currency, once support has been found and the price can go to 83.00 Minor Group1 and then retest 80 etc., but once the 80 has been tested as support this is yet another signal to move assets around, as mentioned earlier in the year shifting a precent AUD cash into US dollars via a local bank’s foreign currency holding account is part of the overall plan and once support is found on 80 another part in cash can be moved.  

EURUSD 1.3350
TradingLevels: In the bigger picture - On the daily chart there is a trendline of support that should be notes, which cuts through around the 133 group1 level, the price will eventually move through the trend line to 130 and probably retest the trendline, this may not be the case but its something that we should keep in mind when work the smaller degree of the Elliott count
Elliott Wave: Now that the Euro has moved down from the corrective pattern at 135 the Elliott wave analysis is easier to work as corrections can be the weak spot in Elliott analysis, any way check the Elliott count on the charts
Trading Strategy: If you are short from the 135 – SG2 (13480 | 13472 | 13465) then well done. The TLT (Treasuries) Elliott count support the US Dollar moving up and therefore the Euro down and the French and Belgian bond yields are surging and therefore part of the current catalyst as the drivers. Trading the Euro short simply depends on your trading time frame, however the Daily and Weekly and even Monthly Robo are being used here. Otherwise simply trade the sublevels. The Dollar will spend a short time at 79 and more at 80 so you need to line this up with the Euro price points, the trend line mentioned above can be an important technical, but it is 130 and Group1 (133 | 132 |131) seen and understood as a group with the 132 as the pivot (support or resistance) can be very useful, you should expect a hard time here and the same for the Dollar at 80, its best to expect the worst rather than hope for the best, you don’t have control over this, this is not about positive thinking and creating your own futures thoughts in to reality, this is about preparation and opportunity meeting you want in the longer term the 130 as resistance and you want the Group1 to hold the price to 130 for the struggle rather than a strong bounce off the trendline and the 130, so if the price gets through to 130 you don’t want to see it find support back on the top of group1 133, sure it can trade above it but you don’t want it finding support as this create the foundation for a move up. Any way we are not even there yet, so for the short tern expect a bounce off the 133 on arrival

AUDUSD 97.10
TradingLevels: The price is at 97 so you need to give it time, you should be looking at SG1 above 97 and SG2 below 97 as the support and the resistance. The move up is a rally as the Dollar has a quick check of the 79. If your patient and give the price time within the SG1 and SG2 with the 97 as the line in the sand, you will be able to work out when the rally has run out of steam and what price levels the price is trapped at, you do need to understand how to see and work both SG1 and SG2 for a bullish market and a bearish market and a corrective market rally like this. The Elliott wave can be helpful in recognising patterns
Elliott Wave: the small rally up off the lows from SG2 is currently in three waves so this is corrective but it can turn into five waves Impulse, if it is five waves, then after a abc correction there will be another five waves which in turn can take it higher than the SG1, it’s still only 530AM let’s see what the pattern is when I make the video
Trading Strategy: The rally up from SG2 is just that a rally but how far will it go, try and recognise the Elliott pattern then use the levels to work a trade in either direction

Indices

Dow Jones CFD 11,300
TradingLevels: It’s great to see the prices down, because we are short, however the Gap in the futures markets on most Indices is a concern, for the Dow it’s around the 1800. That said we are in a series of wave threes of Intermediate degree and we should expect as mentioned before the market to pick up speed to the downside and that is what we are seeing. There is volume support in the bigger picture up from the lows of Sept under the 11,000, this 11,000 is also the 61.8% retracement level of the Oct run up so the 11,000 say to 10,800 is the general support, this is the next real space to watch for support, so you can image if this next support fails to hold, then we are at 10,000 TL1
Elliott Wave: Minute Wave 3) of Minor Wave 3 of Intermediate Wave (3)
Trading Strategy:  The 11,500 was easy, but it’s always safer to look at the worst case and work down from that. The next short term supports are 11,300 | 11,200 | 11,100
For the intraday trader use the 1300 and the SG2 11,280 | 11,272 | 11,265 the 11,272 is very important as support or resistance a low close to this price  is also the end of an impulse wave down from the 11,500 I will explain this in the video we can see a retest back to 11500 from here?

S&P500 CFD: 1190
TradingLevels: Once the SP500 has SG2 1180 |1172 | 1165 as the resistance then the market is forced down through the next support 1150 the Midpoint and all is on track for lower price towards the 1100 mTL1 ( MinorLevel 1) being trapped under 1200 mTL2 places the price at 1,000 TL1 this is how Group1 works in any degree, this probably is extremely  high when using Group1 like this in a negative market
Wave count: Wave (iii) to the 1150
Trading Strategy: The Gap is not being covered on any of the futures markets, this is a concern but we will stay with the current unfolding impulse waves down, so continue to short the retest of the sublevels

FTSE 100 CFD: 5130
TradingLevels: This large third wave is powerful we will see the prices at 5000 shortly, but expect bounces at all the right places 5100 and the sublevels
Elliott Wave: There is more downside in the impulse wave in line with the US  markets
Trading Strategy: Depending on your strategy time frame, for the bigger picture was to glean small short positions under the 5500 and though Group1 with the aim of waiting for the 5000 to become the retested resistance so we can add to short positions, this still is the case but we don’t know if the 5000 will give us a hard time or not, normally it would however the US indices are in and Intermediate wave (3) down, this is a powerful structure, this is where countries ban short selling

SPI CFD 4030
TradingLevels: There is support around 4000 for the ASX200 and the SPI this is psychological, the 61.8% is at mTL8 | 3800 Indicator will be presenting over sold signals but as always use each level as support and resistance, try and work out the Elliott pattern within the degree time frame you are working and check on the volume to confirm the price action
Elliott Wave: Its more important to work the levels now that the 4000 is on the door step, the Elliot wave count is down
Trading Strategy: Expect the price to sink into 4000. One of the better times to get a position in the SPI is in the US afternoon session, the current daylight saving is on your side, but I guess if you up at that time you may as well trade the Dow as it moves faster.

Summary

The US markets continue to move down and from the Elliott perspective the powerful intermediate Wave (3) is certainly unfolding on track.
The wave 3 up in US treasuries confirms the US Dollar wave count and therefore pushes down the Euro, the Euro and the SP500 | Dow will work in line with the Euro and so will our AUD and ASX.
Traders swap Gold for US Dollars and the base metals are not far behind the precious metals, so all in all, all markets are doing the right thing and we are short, we could of would of should have had more short positions, but we played it safe and took the worst case scenario of a unknown bounce off the 11500 on the Dow but the holding pattern was small and turned out to be nothing to worry about, but I still feel we play the choice technically.
The Intermediate Wave (3) in the Dow is clearing out supports with a flick, the next really supports are the old low from Sept there are orders here traders bought here, they will buy again, there should be a bounce unless something crazy happens which is also possible, the current drivers are the French and Belgian Bonds peaking, but the real problems haven’t started yet, the big fish haven’t been notice yet, how many people does Greece have? Would have to be under 10 Million people, that’s a small problem really… Any way there is support from the 10500 to 11000 for the down this is real and we need to observe this battle of volumes, if the 11500 was retested properly and it still may, however the nromaly flow is a retest of the 11500 and if it fails then the 10,000 is the target the volume support will fade under the selling pressure, the 11,000 is also the 61.8% retracement of the Oct rally, this also see the US Dollar at 80 and the ASX200 at the 4000 but more importantly its 618% of the 2009 rally at 3800 and the Copper market at 300 and then the Chinese Markets at a double bottom, so there is support all around the world, but the wave count in the main markets treasuries, Indices, currencies etc. suggests these supports will disappear  

Trading Quote

Volatility is greatest at turning points, diminishing as a new trend becomes established.-George Soros

Today's Financial Events
Time     Currency   Detail     Forecast    Previous
  
8:45am  NZD        Trade Balance    -454M -751M  
6:00pm  EUR        German Final GDP q/q    0.5% 0.5%  
Tentative  CHF        Employment Level       
Postponed  GBP        Housing Equity Withdrawal q/q    -5.9B -5.8B  
8:00pm  EUR        German Ifo Business Climate    105.5 106.4  
8:30pm  GBP        Revised GDP q/q    0.5% 0.5%  
8:30pm  GBP        Prelim Business Investment q/q     11.6%  
8:30pm  GBP        Index of Services 3m/3m    0.3% 0.4%  
11:00pm  GBP        CBI Industrial Order Expectations    -19 -18  
All Day  USD        Bank Holiday      
12:30am  CAD        Corporate Profits q/q     -4.9%  
1:00am  EUR        Belgium NBB Business Climate    -11.3 -10.4

NOTES:
1. Check the Dividend & Reporting section for your stock on this site before trading
2. Prices may change as this Technical Analysis report is written from 3.30 – 6.30AM
3. Always think things out for yourself, we are only here to bounce ideas around.

Good Morning & Good Luck!

Technical Analaysis CFD Forex Day Trading Strategies EURO

EURUSD 1.3010
Technical Analysis
TradingLevels: The corrective pattern on 130 is still going and it’s not tradable while its in SG1 of 130, if it finds support on 1330 then trade long  to 131 area or if the 130 becomes resistance then the corrective pattern is completed and the next move down is under way and the 1.280 and 1.2772 is the important price point
Elliott Wave: The Same - Wave (iv) is unfolding at 130 and potentially can move higher to 131, but it is corrective and once completed move down for wave five (v) of 3
Trading Strategies: Support on 1330 trade long. 1.30 as retested resistance day trading short