Technical Analysis

Oil WTI CFD: 93.52
Technical Analysis Oil basically follows Indices and Indices will soon make new lows.

The two main points here is that 95 the Midpoint is required as the resistance, this would mean the price would move below 90 towards 80 TL8.
The second point is any current rallies, firstly the price would stay under the 98 mTL8, yes this is high but it is possible on the first retest but probably unlikely, so the secondary level is 95 to 9650, the wave four of one lesser degree is around 96.00 so this would be a comfortable price point to consider, also if the price locks under 92.00 the pivot in Minor Group1 then the price is part of the 90.00 storey and any long term short stops can sit above 95.00 Once 90 is the retested resistance stops can be moved down to 93+ top of MG1.
Elliott Wave – Consider any retest of 95/96 as wave iv) and Wave v) down to 90 which would make Wave (iii) at 90, so a Wave (iv) bounce from 88 – 93 range at 90.  This is still the early stages of a bear market…

Base Metals

US Spot Prices (in l/b)
US Copper:           Last: 3.31+
US Nickel:             Last: 8.37+
US Zinc:                Last: 0.84+
US Aluminium       Last: 0.88+

Copper CFD: 335
The Technical Analysis rally on Friday to 337 should be Wave iv, it may move higher to 338 – 344 but that’s about it, the price should work lower below 320 as Wave v of iii), the price should keep edging down in line with the Indices.
A move below 320 the pivot of Group1 would confirm the larger downside picture

CFD Index Day Trading Technical Analysis

Dow Jones CFD 11880
Technical Analysis
TradingLevels: The retest pattern to 12,000 is corrective, so new lows should be made under 11,800 also meaning the 11,500 MediumLevel comes back into view and of course this opens a larger door and of course confirms Intermediate Wave (3) is underway
Elliott Wave: The bias for Intermediate Wave (3) is looking stronger than one more new high and it is the Euro that leads the way for the Indices to follow as the fear factor grows the trend down
Day Trading Strategies:  11,872 SG2 Resistance short. The 11,772 could be a small stubborn support to navigate but a quick fall is expected from the structure and the failing retest of 12,000 however work the 11,800 as the resistance as price move quick from 8 to 5 that is 11,800 to 11,500.

Elliott Wave  TradingLevels

US Gold CFD: 1598
Technical Analysis
The current move up, is still considered a Wave (iv) rally, the Fibo 38.2% retracement level is around the 1630.
As you know wave fours are normally the complicated structures, so we need to accommodate this in our thinking of the pattern. If the 1572 became the resistance then the Wave (iv) is likely completed and Wave (v) down is under way.
I will go over the possible smaller wave counts in the video, such as the 1600 holding as resistance

Technical Analysis Elliott Wave Trading Education

Sliver The retest from 28.00 up close to 30.00 can just be the Wave a of an abc correction or that this retest can be completed,Elliott wave four corrections can be complicated sideways patterns. From a trading point of view, there is the safe way and the more proactive way and that would be layering in short positions close to 30.00 and then adding as 29.00 becomes the resistance then 28.00, however you would need to be clear on the management, either keeping the stops above 30.00 (31.37) or work much closer to the corrective pattern, there is no correct way, only your way and the risk you accept.

Trading Strategies Technical Analysis

Elliott Wave Oil WTI CFD: 93.80

Oil, copper gold etc. have much the same wave count, a Elliott Wave four correctional rally that should be short lived. 38.2% is around 96.00
The other aspect is Oil is working the Midpoint 95.00, it’s starting the series of retests from the support of Minor Group1 93.00, the battle at 95 should eventually fail and the price test lower into 90 or at least deeper into MG1
If over the sessions ahead the 95.00 finds support then the short term bias is bullish, however we monitor the 95/96 as the resistance delivered by wave four and deliver our trading strategies from there

Tecnical Analysis

Copper CFD: 330
Technical Analysis
The wave four rally in copper started before gold and oil, so we can use this as a lead.
The current high around 337 can be the high of the rally or it can be just the first leg that’s the problem with wave fours, things like triangles occur in wave fours, the main point is that its corrective and should at most move sideways.
The TradingLevels, the price has found support on Group1 {330|320|310}, only when the price is locked under the pivot 320 can the price be pulled down under 300 TL3.  We did understand that the price would struggle and bounce around Group1, so we know what is happening here, the pattern is corrective wave four in Group1, so we aren’t going to see a trend, we are seeing and continue to see supports and choppy price action. The advantage here is the pattern lead over other commodities.
For Day Trading use Support on 330 the top of Group1 is support.

CFD Forex Day Trading Strategies: Technical Analysis AUDUSD

AUDUSD 0.9910
Technical Analysis
TradingLevels: Resistance 1.00 Support 98.00 The retesting pattern is much the same as the Euro and Commodities basically a small wave four, the question is, is it completed. It can be but it can also only be the first leg of three legs/ swings, if it is three swings its not going very far from the 1.00 and if it is completed then expect a move to 98 and to trade that would need to see 99 as resistance…
Elliott Wave: short term, expect a bounce off 99 in three waves then down through 99
Trading Strategies:  Continue to scalp through the sublevels while around 1.00
11:30am  AUD        Monetary Policy Meeting Minutes      

Technical Analysis Summary

We have to continue to trade small ranges with small position sizing’s, until the market develops a clear direction.
As you know there are two possible wave counts for the US markets and they pivot are the 11,772 for the Dow and 1,200 for the SP500 Day Trading.

The Asian region appears weaker in line with commodities; we should see support on the 4000 for the ASX200 and a possible bounce.

Technical Analysis ;The only lead I can see is from US Treasuries yields to the downside and stocks should fall in line with this and this makes sense as the primary focus is the bond market. But we cannot simply forget about the wave count we have on the SP500. There is nothing we can do at the moment that I can see to cement a direction in the medium term, it is safer to use the daily Robo it is a reasonable way to manage risk and let the market trade for you. Trading Strategies There are stocks going up and stocks going down, but it doesn’t really matter as long as you set the orders up in front of the market and let the market trade for you. The Robo has a high probability to get you into profit from the entry, so if you take 30% profit by 11.00AM then you have a free trade, then continue normal with the trade using the Robo, levels and volume.

SPI CFD 4080
Technical Analysis
TradingLevels: The FSTE and the SPI have not rallied as far as the US Indices, that is the relationship to the previous highs, not that this is a big deal, it just points out the weakness of the FSTE and the SPI markets.
Elliott Wave: The Triangle pattern mentioned yesterday and the supporting trendline seem to be in tune with the bounce off the SP500 1200 61.8% support. The current move up is developing nicely as an impulse wave and should the SPI should move to 4150 where the resistance basically starts
Day Trading Strategies: The SG2 {4065|4072|4080} played out nicely. The SG1 of 4100 {4110|4120|4130} will try and hold the price to 4100, if the price finds support on top of SG1 4130 then you can trade to the Midpoint 4150 exit and wait for support to move back in.

Dow Jones CFD 12,075
Technical Analysis
TradingLevels: The price work across both sides of 12,100 which is also the 61.8% retracement level of the move down from the 9^th Dec, the Dow can rally higher to 12,200 as the Elliott wave structure up is suggesting, the SP500 resistance is 1250 a 72% rally if this becomes support then we have a larger structure up
Elliott Wave: The bounce of 1,200 for the SP500 came in on cue which in turn is the 11,800 for the Dow, we can work out the internal structure up but what does need confirming is working out is it a corrective  rally or will new highs be made to 12500+.  As you know we are working both wave counts bullish and bearish, I know this is not helpful as such, but we really do have to sit and wait for clarity in the structure
Trading Strategy:  If your long above 11,772 then well done and wait for the price pattern to unfold at 12,100 that should be the top of a wave three so a wave four across 12,100 with another push higher into 12172. Locking is some profit here at 12,100 is sensible.

Technical Analysis Forex US Dollar CFD: 80.20
The first high above the level (above 80) is in place, this is part of the bigger picture unfolding, the move down from the high above 81.00 is part of the corrective pattern and we have to work out what types of pattern and size.  The first thing we can look at is the short term and we can look to the US Indices, we can track the wave count up for the DJ and SP to get some idea of what will happen here. Current he price is sitting above 80 but the time this session is over the price will probably break this support and move lower,  the current move down firstly needs to be understood as five wave or three waves, if we get five waves down then after a abc rally there will be another five waves down making a larger ABC down a 5-3-5 Zigzag Elliott wave pattern. For the end of this session the price will stick to 80 and edge down, we will look at the wave structure so far in the video and trading any currency you could also use what is occurring here around 80 and the US Indices to get a feel for the market if your day trading

Technical Analysis

Copper CFD: 336
The 61.8% retracement level is up near the 350 and we have to consider this as support has developed on 330 the top of Group1.  We can see from the US Indices that there is more upside to play out the structures are two thirds completed and all of these markets are moving together, so copper should complete its rally between the 340 and 350 a guess would be 344 the pattern is an abc corrective rally and the price is in wave c which has five waves and within that it’s at the top of iii

S&P 500 Futures Elliott Wave Technical Analysis
Tuesday, 20 December 2011 at 8:00:00PM AEST

Some significant dollar weakness in recent trade. Stocks are recovering, so we need to keep an eye on the S&P Futures market while the US cash market is closed. With current dollar weakness and sharp rally on majors, such as on Aud, we are keeping an eye S&P for evidences of a low. For now, we still do not see impulsive upward bounce from the most recent lows, and the price is also still trapped in corrective channel, so bottom is unconfirmed, which means that dollar weakness is also not confrimed at the moment by the S&P. But if we get a minor five waves up on S&P Futures, then our focus will be on Aud/Usd Elliott Wave as mentioned in the video from the past week.

Technical Analysis - Day Trading  - Elliott Wave

Elliott Wave AUDUSD 1 Hour Chart
Wednesday, 21 December 2011 at 7:15:00PM AEST

AUDUSD extended gains nicely towards previous wave X) highs as highlighted in our video yesterday. Move as we can see is very extended and sharp, typical wave three personality of an impulsive structure. As such, any deep pull-back in the near-future will be wave 4, likely of 3).



4Hour
Elliott Wave AUDUSD 4 Hour Chart
Wednesday, 21 December 2011 at 5:17:00PM AEST

-corrective wave E) done

A sharp rally in the past 24hours definitely suggests that Elliott wave E) is done and that this pair is headed higher towards and above 1.0378 region. As such, we believe that rise is impulsive from the most recent lows, because of the price personality; sharp rise, uptrend acceleration is short period of time.

Ideally, pair could reach 1.05 in coming days and weeks.

Daily
Elliott Wave AUDUSD Daily Chart
19 December 2011
-wave IV triangle near completion

Aussie traded lower in the past week after reaching a top at 1.0382 area, where we called end of a wave (D). From there price moved lower quite slowly so we are very confident that pull-back is corrective, and ideally wave (E), final leg of a contracting triangle. If that’s the case, then bullish reversal should occur, while 0.9658 support holds.

We know that Elliott Wave Triangles can be very tricky patterns, because they can occur in wave Aussie traded lower in the past week after reaching a top at 1.0382 area, where we called end of a wave (D). From there price moved lower quite slowly so we are very confident that pull-back is corrective, and ideally wave (E), final leg of a contracting triangle. If that’s the case, then bullish reversal should occur, while 0.9658 support holds.

Technical Analysis

CFD Commodities

US Gold CFD: 1617
Technical Analysis: Viewing the Daily chart there are three possible Elliott Wave counts, two for the downside and one to the upside, it’s important to understand these counts, as the market unfolds we will be eliminating the counts that don’t fit. I will point these counts out in the video.
TradingLevels, the main game as support or resistance is the MediumLevel (65) 1,650, we would not go long unless the price finds support on 1,650. The current price of 1,617 is very close to the Fibonacci number 1.618 so day traders can use the 1620 as support or resistance. The current move up from the 1520 area to the 1630 is a trend that appears complete, in that trends like correction have a being, middle and end and we can see the price pattern above the 1600 to 1630 has overlapping wave structures which is a sign of weakness, so we should naturally expect a correction of the move up, the support would be 618 retracement or around the SG2 1565|1572|1580 expect and abc zigzag correction at least. On our Elliott Wave charts this move up is a wave four retracing back the fourth wave of one lesser degree, this move up is also only Wave (a) of the correction
Strategy, would be to wait for the price to correct the current trend up, after the correction you need to work out if the 1600 becomes support or resistance. The outside triggers would be long if 1630 (SG1) becomes support or short if 1572 (SG2) becomes resistance.
The other important point with wave fours is that they can get complicated, choppy and they are not the structures to trade. Silver may be the better option to trade as you can work with TL3 30.00

Sliver Same - Add to short when 29.00 becomes the resistance then more so with a failed retest as resistance for MinorLevel mTL8/ 28.00 other numbers 27.72 and 26.50 then 25.00 the MediumLevel to cover shorts.