CFD Video Report ; Overnight markets Technical Analysis/ Elliott Wave /TradingLevels / Today's CFD Trades  21 October 2011

EarlyBird Report  – 21 October

Dow Jones – 11, 541 +0.32%
Base Metals Negative
US Gold CFD: 1610
Oil WTI CFD: 85.25
Copper CFD: 305
US Dollar CFD: 77.30
EURUSD 1.3760
Dow Jones CFD 11,570
S&P500 CFD: 1,218
FTSE 100 CFD: 5420
SPI CFD 4150

US News
NEW YORK (Dow Jones)--U.S. stocks pared an afternoon advance late in a session whose choppy trading was dominated by European sovereign-debt worries.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average was up 23 points, or 0.2%, to 11524 at 3:30 p.m. EDT Thursday, while the Standard & Poor's 500-stock index added 3 points, or 0.3%, to 1213. The Nasdaq Composite fell 10 points, or 0.4%, to 2594.

Stocks whipped from positive to negative territory throughout the session, moving higher midday after French President Nicolas Sarkozy and German Chancellor Angela Merkel issued a joint statement pledging that European Union leaders would have a bailout plan in place by Wednesday. Those leaders also called for immediate talks with the private sector over Greek debt.

Earlier, stocks had fallen after reports that a Sunday European summit could be postponed because of disagreements on how to deploy cash in the Continent's bailout fund.

CFD Commodities

US Gold CFD: 1610
Gold is in its Wave 3 down and the target would be around the 1500 MediumLevel at a very rough guess we will work the wave count down.
The US Indices are likely to create a new high from the consolidation at 11500 that could see the price at 11800, for the final high. If this is the case we may see Gold Silver and Oil follow, I don’t think this is the case however there is one once support that we must cross and have as resistance for more downside and they line up, that is Copper at 30 MajorLevel TL3 Silver at 30 MajorLevel TL3 which will have Gold at 1600 the market needs to have these as retested resistance not support if we are to continue the Gold trade down.

I would suggest covering a percentage of the short trade in Gold close to 1600 then and if the above markets develop resistance at their respective levels then move back in short as the Elliott target is down through 1500 for Gold

Oil WTI CFD: 85.25
Oil is going to follow stock so the current move down can be an abc corrective pattern, if the Dow finds support on 11500 then cover any short positions you may have in the local ASX Energy sector

Base Metals

US Spot Prices (in l/b)
US Copper:           Last: 3.05-
US Nickel:             Last: 8.11-
US Zinc:                Last: 0.77-
US Aluminium       Last: 0.92-

Copper CFD: 305
Copper has moved down nicely as expected to 300 (TL3) and will see a bounce here as a wave 4 in line with Gold, This will place a lot more pressure on our Materials sector today, so we can hold short here. The US BHP is checking 72 as support so keep an eye on that and the Shanghai market, that is also expected to move down further

Forex

US Dollar CFD: 77.30
The European meeting is likely to see the EFSF buying bonds in the secondary markets rather than the ECB which leaves the ECB as the QE back up if need be, either way the traders will tend to buy the Euro, this will see the Dollar down.
From a Elliott point of view it does create two wave counts so focus on the levels for entries, you know the main price points, anything with a 72 will be handy, the 13720 and the 13772 and of course the 138.
Start counting five waves up from the last low 1.3655, work the Elliott count up from there, the US indices will be on the same track. And the flipside for the Dollar the 77.72 has and is still the resistance, we have been considering the Dollar in a wave 4 (Triangle) correction from the 17^th and as we see a push down from here we will see the SP500 and the Euro move together

EURUSD 1.3760
TradingLevels: Levels to work on retests and corrective patterns for the long side, 13750 Midpoint, SG2 13772 and 138 mTL2 Expecting a retest of 140 as the target
Elliott Wave: Counting five wave up from the last low
Trading Strategy: Look for long trade set ups on retests of the levels and especially after abc corrective patterns

AUDUSD 1.0260
TradingLevels: On the long side look for support on 10272 and 103 in line with the Euro and SP500 however the Base metals market can weigh on the price, so support on the 10272 and the 103 is critical
Elliott Wave: Expect an abc correction at these old highs 10272 SG2 and 103. Start counting the impulse wave  up (five waves) from the last low around the 10165 SG2 which should see the five wave complete at around the SG2 10272/80 or the 103
Trading Strategy: It would be preferable to trade off support, so be patient and wait for a three wave abc type of pattern up here around the 103 to work the trade from.

Indices

Dow Jones CFD 11,570
TradingLevels: Expect the price to make new highs based off the 11500
Elliott Wave: Intermediate Wave (2) is still in play and especially while its above 11,500, this opens a series of targets starting with the 11650, then 11720 and 11772
Trading Strategy:  Support off the 1150 (ML15)

S&P500 CFD: 1,218
TradingLevels: The 1200 mTL2 has been retest as support and the price should now work higher, short term resistances that you can work as support when the time comes are 1220, 1227, 1230  expect corrective pattern at these levels and the 1230 is the Top of Group1 so this is very important as a support, however expect a larger reaction not so much because of the old highs but because natural supply being present at this level, that said the wave structure should see it burn through quite easily this time
Wave count: Wave C in (2) is starting up
Trading Strategy: find a bullish corrective pattern on one of the levels to work from.

FTSE 100 CFD: 5420
TradingLevels: Find a pattern and a level to work a long trade from
Elliott Wave: abc is completed at 5350, expect high ground and new high
Trading Strategy: Look for a long trade set up

SPI CFD 4150
TradingLevels: Look to work a long trade off the Midpoint 4150 or SG2 4172 then 4200
Elliott Wave: The corrective pattern down can now be finished, the base metals are going to weigh our market down while the European markets lift the US markets  
Trading Strategy: Look for long trade set ups off the levels

Summary

Weekly cycle, strong closing on Friday will see Monday up and this is the run to catch, this is based off  the European meeting this weekend.
The Europe meeting is driving the US and the Dow is above the 11500 and would be expected to make new highs in the last stages of the intermediate Wave (2) rally, let’s say to 11772 – 11800 at a guess. But for us here our ASX market can be sluggish, this is because of base metals and the Shanghai Shenzhen etc, analysis can  have been talking it up for months but it keeps going down, any this market and base metals are the weights for us, so trading ranges should be stronger in the US than here.

The trading strategy, for the ASX would be to lock in short trade profits and get a few long but preferably not in the materials sectors

Trading Quote
Losing because of a new situation is fine, losing again is the beginning of the end.

Today's Financial Events
Time     Currency   Detail     Forecast    Previous
  
11:30am  AUD        Import Prices q/q    0.6% 0.8%  
1:00pm  NZD        Credit Card Spending y/y     4.7%  
Tentative  JPY        BOJ Gov Shirakawa Speaks      
6:40pm  EUR        ECB President Trichet Speaks      
7:00pm  EUR        German Ifo Business Climate    106.3 107.5  
7:30pm  GBP        Public Sector Net Borrowing    11.9B 13.2B  
10:00pm  CAD        Core CPI m/m    0.2% 0.4%  
10:00pm  CAD        CPI m/m    0.1% 0.3%  
4:00am  USD        FOMC Member Kocherlakota Speaks      
6:00am  USD        FOMC Member Yellen Speaks

NOTES:
1. Check the Dividend & Reporting section for your stock on this site before trading
2. Prices may change as this Technical Analysis report is written from 3.30 – 6.30AM
3. Always think things out for yourself, we are only here to bounce ideas around.

Good Morning & Good Luck!

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In-depth Analysis DJI SP500 FSTE SPI ASX200 Gold Copper Oil Forex AUDUSD EURUSD Dollar & CFD Trades FREE TRIAL

EarlyBird – Technical Analysis CFD Trading Report – The Day Ahead

Dow Jones – 11,746 -1.34%
Base Metals Negative
US Gold CFD: 1740
Oil WTI CFD: 100
Copper CFD: 340
US Dollar CFD: 78.10
EURUSD 1.35
AUDUSD 1.00
Dow Jones CFD 11,860
S&P500 CFD: 1220
FTSE 100 CFD: 5400
SPI CFD 4300

News
Global stocks break down… Europeans arrange more meetings, fingers crossed.

CFD Commodities

US Gold CFD: 1740
The price retests SG2 1765 | 1772 | 1780 as resistance and edges down nicely and silver retests 34.00 and drops, the retests of these levels are the first short position entries.
For gold the 1750 and the 1720 can also be used, the 1700 and then the MediumLevel 1650, all as retested price points for shorts, but it’s the 1650 and the 1500 that are the MediumLevels to really work as resistance.
As mentioned earlier this week Silver the TL3 30.00 is the Major level you need as resistance, you can also work Minor Group1 (MG1) each level as retested resistance but don’t be in a rush, once 32.00 is locked in as resistance then you can move in stronger

Oil WTI CFD: 100
The 103 should be the top, especially if the US Indices break lower which is now possible as the base and precious metals are breaking down, but as always evidence is required and that is the 100 retested as resistance and the wave structure down needs to display small impulse waves which seems to be the case so far but it’s early days

Base Metals

US Spot Prices (in l/b)
US Copper:           Last: 3.40-
US Nickel:             Last: 8.13-
US Zinc:                Last: 0.86-
US Aluminium       Last: 0.92-

Copper CFD: 340
The move below 345 creates the bearish pattern, this is very important as it creates the lead for the ASX200, we can look to short.

Forex

US Dollar CFD: 78.10
The US dollar hasn’t really moved, it has sort of corrected somewhat and there maybe more to come (back to 77.72) but it looks reasonable strong as it hasn’t really pulled back, so expect a move up more so than a move down and this would line up with the opposite move in the US Indices, this in turn would make the rally correction in the Euro shallow but that’s nothing new.

EURUSD 1.35
TradingLevels: When 135 becomes resistance then short, also use the sublevels SG2 134772 once this is resistance short
Elliott Wave: The abc was shallow and now that the metals have broken down the SP500 will follow and so will the Euro
Trading Strategy: 135 as resistance look for short trade set ups also the SG2 Midpoint etc and the Daily Robo again, the weekly Robo is triggered at the failing of 135 The price can pick up speed now if the SP500 falls out of bed so to speak.

AUDUSD 1.00
TradingLevels: Moving through the Major TradingLevel TL1 / 1.00 in line with the wave count and the base metals and the US indices etc
Elliott Wave: Wave (iii) down is obviously underway
Trading Strategy: As you know the 1.00 is a big number and there will be loads of buyers and sellers at this number, however the price should move lower. Longer term traders just continue to short with stops above the 1.01 and short term traders need to work the sublevels

Indices

Dow Jones CFD 11,860
TradingLevels: The price moved through support 11,972 SG2 and 12,000 and then retested and failed the perfect pattern to short
Elliott Wave: The overnight moves create the bearish bias count and that is the series of waves one’s and two’s to the downside
Trading Strategy:  Short retests. The 11500 is the MediumLevel, the next important is 11,800 and the next 11,650, but as you know the Dow likes to move to each 100 points and we would trade within this 100 points, but this is also the time to get position for the long term downside to 10,000 we will be looking to build a short trade from the break of 12,000 but be prepare for large swings do not over trade with large positions that force you to have stops too close

S&P500 CFD: 1220
TradingLevels: The weight has shifted below the balance line 1250 expect a bounce off the 1200 but should stay with SG1 1230 and then work lower
Wave count: Unfolding waves one’s and two’s to the down side, create the 1293 as the Wave (2) rally high so this is Wave (3) down starting now
Trading Strategy: Short

FTSE 100 CFD: 5400
TradingLevels: the failed retest of 5500 creates further pressure downwards and the next is 5300 as you know it takes time to work through the price levels, however the Elliott count would suggest the price to pick up speed to the downside
Elliott Wave: Lower highs through Nov create the unfolding of a series of waves one’s and two’s this is now confirming, expect the market to pick up speed over the weeks ahead
Trading Strategy: Long term short position should be the consideration 

SPI CFD 4200
TradingLevels: Now we are working with 4200 the centre of Minor Group1 if this become the resistance this time around then expect 4000 the MediumLevel to come into play
Elliott Wave: The US markets have moved down in line with base metals so we can expect the same here
Trading Strategy: Look for short trade set ups, we are expecting global Indices to pick up speed to the down side this will create further weakness here, but you still need to work each level and subgroups

Summary

As your aware there is weakness air.
Global Indices are now rolling over, IF correct, this means the Oct highs are the top of Intermediate Wave (2) or (b) and Wave (3) or (c) is now under way either way its down for the months ahead. That said you know the11,500 MediumLevel for the Dow has been an important level, so from a TradingLevels perspective until this level is the resistance the larger picture hasn’t broken down. Working with this understanding will help not to over commit to the downside for the longer term, in the shorter term the Triangle pattern for the Dow hasn’t really broken down either, it’s just that the first level of support at 11,972 SG2 or 12,000 has broken and this is of course significant as it’s the first step in the process. The 11,800 (mTL8) is the next important level as retested resistance.

Base Metals and precious metals have also broken down and oil should now have a top in play. And the currencies are also in line with the Indices so we are net short in the markets, we have been quietly building short positions in the ASX during the week and we will continue to do that.

This would also be the point to protect any long positions you have in the markets, you need to do something now, this is the time to protect portfolios etcetera, if we are correct then we can expect months of downside to come.

Trading Quote

Stock market bubbles don't grow out of thin air. They have a solid basis in reality, but reality as distorted by a misconception

Today's Financial Events
Time     Currency   Detail     Forecast    Previous
  

6:00pm  EUR        German PPI m/m    0.1% 0.3%  
7:00pm  EUR        ECB President Draghi Speaks      
11:00pm  CAD        Core CPI m/m    0.2% 0.5%  
11:00pm  CAD        CPI m/m    0.1% 0.2%  
12:15am  USD        FOMC Member Dudley Speaks      
12:30am  CAD        Leading Index m/m    0.2% -0.1%  
2:00am  USD        CB Leading Index m/m    0.5% 0.2%  
5:15am  USD        FOMC Member Fisher Speaks

NOTES:
1. Check the Dividend & Reporting section for your stock on this site before trading
2. Prices may change as this Technical Analysis report is written from 3.30 – 6.30AM
3. Always think things out for yourself, we are only here to bounce ideas around.

 Technical Analysis CFDs Day Trading Report- TradingLounge

Good Morning & Good Luck!

Currency Trading | Forex Trading Report
Elliott Wave Aud/Usd 1 Hour Chart
it seems that wave (iii) reached a bottom after a minor recovery seen over the past two sessions, which appears to be a start of a three wave corrective move in blue wave (iv). Wave four usually retraces into a territory of a wave four of one lesser degree, so more upside could be seen in the next two sessions, potentially above 0.9800, before trend reverse lower again.
Larger trend remains down, while prices trades below upper channel resistance line!

Thursday, 24 November 2011 at 6:33:00PM AEST

Forex Trading
Forex Trading | Currency Trading | Forex Elliott Wave | Forex Trading Strategies | Forex Technical Analysis | Forex Analyst | Forex Trading levels | Forex Analysis | Forex Strategy | Forex Scalping | Forex AUDUSD | Forex EURUSD | Forex GBPUSD | Forex USDCAD | Forex JPYUSD |  Forex USDCHF | Elliott Wave AUDUSD | Elliott Wave EURUSD | Elliott Wave US Dollar | Forex Mentor | Forex Trading Coach 

Technical Analysis Elliott Wave Eur/Usd 1 Hour Chart Currency Trading
Forex Trading Euro is in a recovery mode from 1.3211 mark, when an impulsive fall from 1.3568 found the bottom. As such, the minimum expectations for the near-term is a 3-waves of a recovery, primary labeled in a wave (ii) towards 1.3400; wave four territory of a one lesser degree! Currently, we coudl be in wave a), so waves b) and c) yet to come.
The other more complex wave count is w)-x)-y) correction while we we are above!
Monday, 28 November 2011 at 7:00:00PM AEST

Forex Technical Analysis AUDUSD 97.10
TradingLevels: If 1.00 develops support then this is a bullish picture, the wave counts suggests a rally to 1.00 then down again, but we have to trade off support and resistance.
Elliott Wave: Despite a quite strong recovery in the past sessions, we still believe that larger trend is down on Aud/Usd, and that downtrend will resume in the coming sessions. In fact, we have only 3-waves up and also gap that needs to be filled. As such, we expect that current wave 4 will find resistance in the near-future, which must not rise above 1.0055 critical/invalidation region
Trading Strategy: A little like the Euro’s move down, the move down here from the SG2 9972 to 99 is in five waves, so a abc counter trend bounce off 99 then down again through the 99, how far will the bounce be is tricky to say, however there is resistance at 9920 and 9950 Midpoint, you know if the price finds support on top of group1 9930 then the price will end up at the Midpoint

AUDUSD Elliott Wave Chart

Aud/Usd 1 Hour Chart
Monday, 28 November 2011 at 7:20:00PM AEST

Despite a quite strong recovery in the past sessions, we still believe that larger trend is down on Aud/Usd, and that downtrend will resume in the coming sessions. In fact, we have only 3-waves up and also gap that needs to be filled. As such, we expect that current wave 4 will find resistance in the near-future, which must not rise above 1.0055 critical/invalidation region!

Technical Analysis - Currency Trading - Elliott Wave

Forex Trading Elliott Wave USDCAD 1 Hour Chart
Tuesday, 29 November 2011 at 7:22:00PM AEST
Elliott Wave count USDCAD, a bearish reversal is still unconfirmed and the reason is the wave structure from the peak, which is not in five waves...yet! But it seems that current slow price action is a wave iv) and that wave v) will reach new lows very soon. In such, case we will call a temporary top for the pair at 1.0524 and we will focus on more weakness in days ahead.

Forex Trading Elliott Wave USDCAD  4 Hour Chart
Tuesday, 29 November 2011 at 5:58:00PM AEST
-trend slows down
Elliott Wave count USDCAD  reversed sharply lower yesterday, after prices found the top on Friday exactly at the upper channel resistance line. We know that this usually occurs in a corrective advance, and not impulsive wave structure. As such, we really need to consider a potential break lower, but not until we see a fall through the lower support line of a corrective channel! Only a decisive break of 1.0520 puts bulls back into action!

Forex Trading Elliott Wave USDCAD  Daily Chart
27 November 2011 USDCAD
-looking higher while above 1.02
Elliott Wave count USDCAD  could be trading in very complex but still incomplete corrective pattern from late July, since pair fell in 3-waves from 1.065 highs. As such, move from those highs was corrective, labelled as wave X) on the chart, especially after a broken downward channel resistance line. Since then market is trading very nicely higher as expected; now approaching October highs that should be taken out in current Y) wave, while pair trades above 1.0200 supports. Only a move back below that level will suggests that bears are in control.

Index Trading Research and Analysis

Dow Jones CFD 11,580
TradingLevels: The bottom line is that while the price is above 11500 the MediumLevels the price is support and we can’t really short
Elliott Wave: The rally should complete about here, that is under the 11650, but the Gap at 11,800 is a bother? That is the 61.8% retracement level and while the price is above 11500 that is possible
Trading Strategy:  Normally, being above 11500 we would be long, but there is more evidence that this is a rally than a bull run so we simply have to tread lightly and be patient

S&P500 CFD: 1190
TradingLevels: Gap target 1212, current resistance mTL2 | 1200 support SG2 1172 zone, we can see that over the last two sessions the price has not really move much to the upside so it is struggling and there is a wave count that can call this move up completed, but only completed as Wave (a) of an abc correction
Wave count: I’m thinking that the move up is only the Wave (a) of an (a) (b) (c) correction
Trading Strategy: Expecting a move down from 1200 to 1172 SG2

FTSE 100 CFD: 5320
TradingLevels: Target Gap 5343 covered, the price has some support a 5272 | 5300 however the price like US Indices has been running out of stream in this area, so there is either a top or a larger corrective pattern to unfold?
Elliott Wave: I have to wonder if the move up is just the Wave (a) of an (a) (b) (c) correction, we have to keep this in mind when the move down starts as an option
Trading Strategy: Looking for your favourite short set up when you see weakness

SPI CFD 4100
TradingLevels: The 4100 as support or resistance is the play, expect a small corrective pattern here, If and when the top of subgroup1 4130 develops as support then you can add to longs, with the target at 4150
Elliott Wave: Yes the 38.2% retracement level is the 4100 (mTL1) however we have to consider the move up as just Wave a) of Wave (iv), do there is Wave b) and Wave c) to come, an abc zigzag pattern, it is possible that the Wave (iv) is completed at 4100 now, but we have to look at all the possibilities when using Elliott and then eliminate them based on evidence.
Trading Strategy: Expect the price to work down below 4100  

Intraday Elliott Wave EURUSD Currency Trading Strategies

Eur/Usd 1 Hour Chart
Monday, 5 December 2011 at 6:40:00PM AEST

Euro found the support on Friday, and is actually on no-mans land since then, as we see possibilities for two wave counts while short-term 1.3393 support holds. On the left we are looking for an expanded flat in wave X, where bullish trend should be seen back above 1.3530.

But if 1.3393 support is out then more downside will follow in B wave from wave A peak.

We see more possibilities for the wave count shown on the right. Why? because zig-zags are more common than expanded flat!

Forex Trading: Elliott Wave EURUSD Currency Trading Strategies

Forex Trading: Elliott Wave EURUSD Currency Trading Strategies

Forex Trading Strategies Elliott Wave AUDUSD

Elliott Wave AUDUSD 1 Hour Chart

Currency Trading: US Dollar CFD Strategy - TradingLevels
US Dollar CFD: 78.37
On our Euro charts we have the pattern as corrective and should push up from current lows and therefor would see the dollar down from the current SG2 {78.80 | 78.72 | 78.65} zone, so if the 78.65 becomes the resistance then expect the price down to 78.50 Midpoint and lower, if however the price finds support on the 78.72 then the 78.80 then obviously the move up has started, when it comes to trading the support and resistance on the price points are more important than the guessing game of Elliott, once this penny drops your trading and consistency  improves 

CFD Forex Trading Strategies Elliott Wave Count EURUSD

Eur/Usd 4 Hour Chart
Friday, 9 December 2011 at 5:40:00PM AEST

-sideways

Even after yesterdays fall on Eur/usd, the price action from Nov 25 still looks unclear and very choppy. We also do not have any strong evidences which would confirm immediate, further weakness on this pair. As such, pair simply may still be trapped in sideways price action; incomplete corrective wave 2), with wave B in progress towards 1.3200. Only a decisive break of that level will suggest that pair is going much deeper!

Technical Analysis Forex Trading GBPUSD Elliott Wave

Gbp/Usd 1 Hour Chart Elliott Wave

Cable reversed very nicely on Friday after a spike up to 1.5743 which appears to be a wave (E) of a fourth wave triangle. If thats the case, then prices shoudl now continue lower impulsively, towards 1.5460 projected Fibo level.

Currency Trading US Dollar Technical Analysis

Currency Trading

US Dollar CFD: 80.50
The shorter trend to count is the move up from 78 which should top out at 81 or 82 and fold back to 80 checking for support, start counting the waves up from 78 I think the current high is nearly the top of wave three, so a four and five to  go then a larger pull back towards 80, I know I’m a little loose here with prices, it’s just that the Euro is so news driven waves can extend or contract form market intervention, it’s not the normal psychological flow, we see this a lot with the yen

Forex Trading report AUDUSD Elliott Wave TradingLevels - Peter Mathers

AUDUSD 0.9930
TradingLevels: The Euro is will find support on 130 and the AUD on 99, the TL1 | 1.00 hasn’t been retested yet, which is normally done from the 99 and the 98.  The 98 is the first MinorLevel and is also lower trend line support, so consider it the main support below the 1.00
Elliott Wave: Wave C of Triangle (E) below 1.00 (see 4 Hour Chart)
Trading Strategy:  Continue to scalp through the sublevels while around 1.00

Forex Trading

CFD Forex Trading Report AUDUSD

AUDUSD 0.9980
TradingLevels: The retest of 1.00 is still under way and it’s from being a little patient here, if the price finds support on 1.00 then scalp long and if the 99.72 becomes the retested resistance then look for short trade set ups.
We also have to expect in the slightly bigger picture for the price to spend time swinging across 1.00 in the 103 – 98 range, the reason for this assumption is the larger triangle pattern back from September as it has lower highs and lower highs basically driving the price into 1.00 it will in time come out from 1.00 and that’s the trend we need.
Elliott Wave: Wave C of Triangle (E) below 1.00 (see 4 Hour Chart) A move above 1.0030 creates a larger corrective and a different wave structure, we will talk about this if it occurs
Forex Trading Strategy:  Continue to scalp through the sublevels while around 1.00