Day Trading Education in Technical Anlysis GOLD

US Gold CFD: 1577
Following on from the Elliott wave count from the last post, the Wave (iv) retest to 1600 is underway, yes it can pop up in SG1 of 1600 but should fade and fall lower into Wave (v) down at 1500 the MediumLevel (ML15) where it will have a larger bounce, once this bounce is over the price should work lower down through 1500. It is worth point out the significance of this 1500, it is the 50% between 1000 and 2000 and this means if the price finds 1500 as resistance then the balance is towards 1000 (TL1) and not 2000 (TL2) if this is the case then we can start working with the levels below 1500 and they are MinorLevel 1,300, 1,200, 1,100 which are Minor Group1. The normal flow down from one MajorLevel such as 2000 to 1000 is quite simple, lets just start with 1500 the Medium level, the price would move down to this level and bounce (abc correction) this high is the first high, then the price would bounce off 1500 again creating the second high and so on until the price moved through 1500 and then retested it as resistance and supply levels would be lowering, eventually the weight of the market would be trapped under 1500 and then the same thing would happen at 1300 the top of Minor Group 1. Another point worth noting, is that the price travels quite fast down from 8 to 5 and 5 to 3 they are the best numbers to short between

Day Trading Education in Technical Anlysis GOLD

Elliott Wave

Elliott Wave EURUSD 1.3044
TradingLevels: There’s not much to say here, we know the rally is corrective and will now be short lived. Also when talking about the number 1.30 we should also put in 1.28 and 1.2772 this will become apparent in the next swing down
Elliott Wave: The Same - Elliott Wave (iv) is unfolding at 130 and potentially can move higher, but it is corrective and once completed move down for wave five (iv)
Day Trading Strategies: The wave four is still unfolding and can get uglier, meaning the corrective pattern can simply continue to expand, that said you can start to look for short trade set ups, but keeping the stops above the high, keeping the position size very small as part of a scaling in process, the risk is high on picking tops it can take three times to get it right, that is the risk of picking tops.  Also line this rally on 130 with the Dow Futures and the Dollar finding support on 80

CFD Index Day Trading Technical Analysis

Dow Jones CFD 11880
Technical Analysis
TradingLevels: The retest pattern to 12,000 is corrective, so new lows should be made under 11,800 also meaning the 11,500 MediumLevel comes back into view and of course this opens a larger door and of course confirms Intermediate Wave (3) is underway
Elliott Wave: The bias for Intermediate Wave (3) is looking stronger than one more new high and it is the Euro that leads the way for the Indices to follow as the fear factor grows the trend down
Day Trading Strategies:  11,872 SG2 Resistance short. The 11,772 could be a small stubborn support to navigate but a quick fall is expected from the structure and the failing retest of 12,000 however work the 11,800 as the resistance as price move quick from 8 to 5 that is 11,800 to 11,500.

CFD Forex Trading Strategies - Technical Analysis - US Dollar Elliott Wave

Dollar Index 4 Hour Chart Elliott Wave
Friday, 16 December 2011 at 6:10:00PM AEST
-impulsive continuation
A recent sharp upward price action suggest that we are in the middle of an Elliott Wave impulsive advance, now towards and above 81.00. Sub-wave (iii) is now in process so we will look for more upside after any pull-back which will probably be a blue wave (iv). Critical/invalidation region of the count is at 79.18

Elliott Wave  TradingLevels

US Gold CFD: 1598
Technical Analysis
The current move up, is still considered a Wave (iv) rally, the Fibo 38.2% retracement level is around the 1630.
As you know wave fours are normally the complicated structures, so we need to accommodate this in our thinking of the pattern. If the 1572 became the resistance then the Wave (iv) is likely completed and Wave (v) down is under way.
I will go over the possible smaller wave counts in the video, such as the 1600 holding as resistance

Technical Analysis Elliott Wave Trading Education

Sliver The retest from 28.00 up close to 30.00 can just be the Wave a of an abc correction or that this retest can be completed,Elliott wave four corrections can be complicated sideways patterns. From a trading point of view, there is the safe way and the more proactive way and that would be layering in short positions close to 30.00 and then adding as 29.00 becomes the resistance then 28.00, however you would need to be clear on the management, either keeping the stops above 30.00 (31.37) or work much closer to the corrective pattern, there is no correct way, only your way and the risk you accept.

Trading Strategies Technical Analysis

Elliott Wave Oil WTI CFD: 93.80

Oil, copper gold etc. have much the same wave count, a Elliott Wave four correctional rally that should be short lived. 38.2% is around 96.00
The other aspect is Oil is working the Midpoint 95.00, it’s starting the series of retests from the support of Minor Group1 93.00, the battle at 95 should eventually fail and the price test lower into 90 or at least deeper into MG1
If over the sessions ahead the 95.00 finds support then the short term bias is bullish, however we monitor the 95/96 as the resistance delivered by wave four and deliver our trading strategies from there

Technical Analysis CFD Indices Trading Dow Jones

Dow Jones CFD 11880
Technical Analysis
TradingLevels: The trend is down until proven otherwise, yes there is support on 11,800/11,772 SG2 for the Dow and 1,200 for the SP500 and 4000 for the ASX and the Dollar will stick to 80, so it is a juncture to be careful of a reversal to the upside as we have a wave count to match, as you can see on our SP500 charts.
However there is the case for a large move down from here as I have been talking about in the EarlyBird section and the US Treasuries support this downside in fact they are leading the way down the yields are very weak (when Stocks are Down Yields are Down and Dollar is Up and vice versa) or you can use the TLT; When stocks are up, yields are up, TLT is down and dollar is down; and vice-versa! iShares Barclays 20+ Year Treasury Bond Fund (the Fund) seeks investment results that correspond generally to the price and yield performance of the Barclays Capital U.S. 20+ Year Treasury Bond Index (the Index). The Index measures the performance of public obligations of the United States Treasury that have a remaining maturity of 20 or more years.
Elliott Wave: The bearish count requires 11,800 as the resistance after it finishes bouncing, the SP500 needs 1,200 as resistance, this will take time
Trading Strategies:  Long above 11,772 and short below, wait for these price point to be tested before committing

Tecnical Analysis

Copper CFD: 330
Technical Analysis
The wave four rally in copper started before gold and oil, so we can use this as a lead.
The current high around 337 can be the high of the rally or it can be just the first leg that’s the problem with wave fours, things like triangles occur in wave fours, the main point is that its corrective and should at most move sideways.
The TradingLevels, the price has found support on Group1 {330|320|310}, only when the price is locked under the pivot 320 can the price be pulled down under 300 TL3.  We did understand that the price would struggle and bounce around Group1, so we know what is happening here, the pattern is corrective wave four in Group1, so we aren’t going to see a trend, we are seeing and continue to see supports and choppy price action. The advantage here is the pattern lead over other commodities.
For Day Trading use Support on 330 the top of Group1 is support.

CFD Index Trading - Technical Analysis SPI SP500 FSTE

S&P500 CFD: 1212
Technical Analysis
TradingLevels: 1,200 support, also the 61.8% retracement support and we are seeing support above 1,200 within SG1 {1230|1220|1210} As you know we have a wave count for the upside off the 61.8% 1,200 so while the price is above 1,200 we have to seriously consider the prospect of a rally.  If and when the 1,200 becomes resistance then we can look at a larger bearish picture.
It’s not that we are going to miss anything, our main job is not to lose money while the structure develops a direction
Elliott Wave count: Working two structures one bullish and one bearish, one of them will become clear for the main trend, but in the meantime the smaller trend is down so short term bias is down
Trading Strategies: bring stops down to 1227

SPI CFD 4080
Technical Analysis
TradingLevels: If 4100 becomes the resistance then the price would work lower to 4000 where it would likely bounce up in three waves
Elliott Wave: The pattern on 4000 over the Oct Nov period is open for interpretation, however it is forming a triangle pattern and that means when its completed a move down will occur. So what does completed look like, well a triangle in Elliott theory is five swings abcde and so far we have the abcd the current low can be the wave d, so eventually we would see a wave e up, how far would the wave e go, the 4200 is the pivot within Minor Group1 so I could see it finding support on 4200 based off the current low the 61.8% would be the 4200.
Day Trading Strategies: Move stops down to last high above 4100 after the second retest of 4100. New trades need to work SG2 {4080|4072|4065} then the Midpoint, there is a daily trend line cutting through the 4030 – 4050 are double check this. Essentially one the market opens and settle being on the right side of 4072 is the starting line.

FTSE 100 CFD: 54.28
TradingLevels: The rally up has been quite strong but it has not rally as far as the US indices in relationship to the last highs in early Dec.
Elliott Wave: The rally up is developing into an impulse wave (five waves) the current prices are near the top of wave three, you should be able to count this up, so wave four and five to go then a corrective pattern down abc?
Day Trading Strategies: day trading the sublevels with the understanding of the wave count
FTSE 100 CFD Elliott Wave Day Trading

Dow Jones CFD 12,075
Technical Analysis
TradingLevels: The price work across both sides of 12,100 which is also the 61.8% retracement level of the move down from the 9^th Dec, the Dow can rally higher to 12,200 as the Elliott wave structure up is suggesting, the SP500 resistance is 1250 a 72% rally if this becomes support then we have a larger structure up
Elliott Wave: The bounce of 1,200 for the SP500 came in on cue which in turn is the 11,800 for the Dow, we can work out the internal structure up but what does need confirming is working out is it a corrective  rally or will new highs be made to 12500+.  As you know we are working both wave counts bullish and bearish, I know this is not helpful as such, but we really do have to sit and wait for clarity in the structure
Trading Strategy:  If your long above 11,772 then well done and wait for the price pattern to unfold at 12,100 that should be the top of a wave three so a wave four across 12,100 with another push higher into 12172. Locking is some profit here at 12,100 is sensible.

Technical Analysis Forex US Dollar CFD: 80.20
The first high above the level (above 80) is in place, this is part of the bigger picture unfolding, the move down from the high above 81.00 is part of the corrective pattern and we have to work out what types of pattern and size.  The first thing we can look at is the short term and we can look to the US Indices, we can track the wave count up for the DJ and SP to get some idea of what will happen here. Current he price is sitting above 80 but the time this session is over the price will probably break this support and move lower,  the current move down firstly needs to be understood as five wave or three waves, if we get five waves down then after a abc rally there will be another five waves down making a larger ABC down a 5-3-5 Zigzag Elliott wave pattern. For the end of this session the price will stick to 80 and edge down, we will look at the wave structure so far in the video and trading any currency you could also use what is occurring here around 80 and the US Indices to get a feel for the market if your day trading

S&P 500 Futures Elliott Wave Technical Analysis
Tuesday, 20 December 2011 at 8:00:00PM AEST

Some significant dollar weakness in recent trade. Stocks are recovering, so we need to keep an eye on the S&P Futures market while the US cash market is closed. With current dollar weakness and sharp rally on majors, such as on Aud, we are keeping an eye S&P for evidences of a low. For now, we still do not see impulsive upward bounce from the most recent lows, and the price is also still trapped in corrective channel, so bottom is unconfirmed, which means that dollar weakness is also not confrimed at the moment by the S&P. But if we get a minor five waves up on S&P Futures, then our focus will be on Aud/Usd Elliott Wave as mentioned in the video from the past week.

CFD Trading Strategies

US Gold CFDs: 1613
If you have been day trading and shorted it at 1630 then you are braver than I but well done. I’m a bit of a chicken I like to see a market confirm first, a retest on a certain price point, in this case the 1600 would be fine, so waiting for a move through 1600 to 1590 then a retest of 1600 and failing, then scaling in short adding when 1590 is retested then working the SG2 and especially the 1572 level (72).
We also have to remember that we are in a wave four and wave four can get complicated, so the move up from 1565 to the current high can just be the Wave a of a larger abc correction, at the moment we will call it competed but we now need to see the evidence of an impulse structure down (series of five waves).
One of the problems here of course is that this market is following stock / Indices and if the move up yesterday in the US Indices is Wave (i) and todays pull back is wave (ii) then the next Wave is Elliott Wave (iii) up, so Gold can follow the Indices up. We would need to see Gold split from the Indices and the catalyst for this would be the US Dollar moving up, which we now see as the abc pullback is completed but not confirmed, it you need to stay above 80 TL8, we can also look to the CAD and CHF wave counts to help us with the Dollars wave count as they will be in tune to some degree and of course the Euro and SP will be in tune which in turn can help with the Dollar doing the opposite

Sliver The pattern that retested TL3 30.00 is more complete as a three wave corrective pattern and there for is the short from 30.00 with stops above the last high