EarlyBird CFD Report – The day ahead

Dow Jones – 11,010 -1.61%
Base Metals Negative
US Gold CFD: 1604
Oil WTI CFD: 81.54
Copper CFD: 316
US Dollar CFD: 78.40
EURUSD 1.3573
AUDUSD 0.9820
Dow Jones CFD 11,133
S&P500 CFD: 1,165
FTSE 100 CFD: 5190
SPI CFD 4020

Please Note:
Traders, I would like to notify you that The Elliott Wave Forex & SP500 Oil Gold will be unavailable from  Thursday, September 29th 2011 10:00EDT and until Monday, October 3rd 2011. They will be back with regular updates on Tuesday during the European trading hours.
The EarlyBird and ASX Day Trading will be as usual.

US News
U.S. stocks sank in late trading as a drop in commodities prices added to concerns about policymakers' ability to contain Europe's debt crisis.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average fell 92 points, or 0.8%, to 11099. The Standard & Poor's 500-stock index lost 14 points, or 1.2%, at 1162, while the Nasdaq Composite shed 29 points, or 1.1%, to 2518.

A decline would snap the stock market's three-day winning streak, coming after a day that saw a major gain evaporate in the closing minutes of trading. On Wednesday, the Dow shot up more than 125 points in early trading before turning negative

Commodities

US Gold CFD: 1604
The price appears to have completed the Wave four to 1650 MediumLevel, but wave fours are normally complicated little suckers, so lm a little unsure that it can experience a more complex pattern, however the retracement distance is fine, so it should stay under the 1677 high, I guess once it locks under the 1600 then we would see it at 1500.
The influence is the US indices, it’s unclear there if there will be another small push up before moving down strongly, we are talking about a small abc pattern or a top being in place on the 5 minute chart with the US indices, but this will affect everything else for the next session, but we just have to allow it to unfold further, which may even be before I finish the EarlyBird report

Oil WTI CFD: 81.54
Looks like the Wave (ii) 61.8% rally to 85 is completed and the next leg down starting, after a bounce off 80 (TL8) again but should stay under 83 (MG1) should then push down lower through 80 and pick up speed making new lows, in line with the Indices

Base Metals

US Spot Prices (in l/b)
US Copper:           Last: 3.21-
US Nickel:             Last: 8.20-
US Zinc:                Last: 0.85-
US Aluminium       Last: 0.97-

Copper CFD: 316
The Wave iv) four back to 350 is completed and will now move lower, I should be carful in saying the wave four is completed, it is completed in term of height but maybe not in structure, the price can bounce around within Minor Group1 (MG1) 330 – 300 for a while before dropping through 300 and continuing down.
This of course will place pressure on the AUD and ASX and the Asian markets in general

Forex

US Dollar CFD: 78.40
We think the top of the rally is in for the SP500 / Euro and the low for the Dollar but we don’t have the evidence for that, so we are stuck in the guessing game which is not a good space.
We need to see five waves down for the US Indices and Euro and five waves up of the 7780 low for the dollar, we only have three wave in all markets, so we have to wait, so when you see the five waves, then wave for the three wave abc counter trend, then move in

EURUSD 1.3573
TradingLevels: As mentioned in the dollar, we only think / assume the rally is completed we don’t have the evidence so with this in mind start scaling in short with the stop above the 13657 or above 13687 if you can, for end of day (daily Robo) traders, weekly Robo traders can also use this as a set up
Trade Strategy: Weekly Robo Stop 13837 / 

AUDUSD 0.9820
TradingLevels: Like most other markets the rally is probably competed and here with the failed retest of the 1.00 its probably the same, as this market lines up with Copper wave four too, wave four are normally complicate , so we should include this in our trade plan, to accommodate a triangle pattern or some other pattern, that would take time, however the price should stay under the 1.00
Trade Strategy: The 98 is the level to work with  now if you missed the Selling Resistance Level 1.00. So once the 98 is retested as resistance look to short, with new lows expected under the 96

Indices

Dow Jones CFD 11,133
TradingLevels:  The 11,000 is the magnet
Elliott Wave: abc corrective rally for a wave two can be completed at this current high, but for confirmation we need to see five waves down and we only have three waves, so it can be and abc correction (this is on the five minute chart),  that said I sway to the five wave down starting, because of the personality of the structure last night, either way there is more down side to under 11,000
Trade Strategy:  If you have shorted the weakness yesterday then just hold short with the stop above the 11337

S&P500 CFD: 1,165
TradingLevels: Once the price is under 1144 we have confirmation of the next leg down
Elliott Wave: Wave two can be completed but there can also be another push to 1210
Trade Strategy: 1172 as resistance helps create the top, watch the retest as the resistance so you can short from the 1172 if resistance is created then use the 1165

FTSE 100 CFD: 5190
TradingLevels: The current pattern at 5300 is in three waves (bullish corrective) for a bearish picture we need to see either the three waves turn into five fives, then wait for the abc counter trend to short from, or see the price down under 5100
Trade Strategy: If you have a position under 5300 (SG2 of 5100) then just keep the stop above the 5300, we simply have to wait for evidence of the next move down, but there can be another push higher in the Dow /SP500 we simply just need to wait for more of the structure to unfold to offer certainty

SPI CFD 4020
TradingLevels:  I just don’t know if the 4100 is the top of the rally, there can be another push higher, to cover the Gap (4150) and to complete the structure up.
Elliott Wave: The move down from 4100 is like all the other markets, its in three waves (bullish corrective) we would need to see five waves down (Impulse – gives direction) As I have mentioned I sway to the bias of the top being in place but I can’t offer any proof as yet
Trade Strategy: If 400 becomes the retested resistance then look to hold short   

Summary

There’s still 40 minutes of trading on the US markets, so we may see another move lower to help confirm a top in the rally for all Indices, I am leaning towards the top being in place the same as yesterday but I did not want to get traders trapped with another push higher, this is still the case but to a lesser extent now

The Oil, Copper, Gold, Silver etc. have competed their rallies and are moving lower, they should make new lows in due course…

I think we can start looking at ASX short trades today


Trading Quote

The easiest thing to handle is winning, but trading doesn’t start until you lose.

Today's Financial Events
Time     Currency   Detail     Forecast    Previous
  
9:50am  JPY        Retail Sales y/y    -0.6% 0.6%  
Tentative  JPY        BOJ Gov Shirakawa Speaks      
5:00pm  GBP        MPC Member Miles Speaks      
5:55pm  EUR        German Unemployment Change    -9K -8K  
6:30pm  GBP        Net Lending to Individuals m/m    0.7K 0.9B  
6:30pm  GBP        M4 Money Supply m/m    0.3% -0.1%  
6:30pm  GBP        Mortgage Approvals    50K 49K  
10:30pm  CAD        RMPI m/m    -1.6% -1.2%  
10:30pm  CAD        IPPI m/m    -0.4% -0.3%  
10:30pm  USD        Unemployment Claims    420K 423K  
10:30pm  USD        Final GDP q/q    1.2% 1.0%  
10:30pm  USD        Final GDP Price Index q/q    2.4% 2.4%  
12:00am  USD        Pending Home Sales m/m    -1.6% -1.3%  
12:30am  USD        Natural Gas Storage     89B

NOTES:
1. Check the Dividend & Reporting section for your stock on this site before trading
2. Prices may change as this report is written while markets are closing/trading
3. Always think things out for yourself, we are only here to bounce ideas around.

Good Morning & Good Luck!