CFD Video Report ; Overnight markets Technical Analysis/ Elliott Wave /TradingLevels / Today's CFD Trades  21 October 2011

EarlyBird Report  – 21 October

Dow Jones – 11, 541 +0.32%
Base Metals Negative
US Gold CFD: 1610
Oil WTI CFD: 85.25
Copper CFD: 305
US Dollar CFD: 77.30
EURUSD 1.3760
Dow Jones CFD 11,570
S&P500 CFD: 1,218
FTSE 100 CFD: 5420
SPI CFD 4150

US News
NEW YORK (Dow Jones)--U.S. stocks pared an afternoon advance late in a session whose choppy trading was dominated by European sovereign-debt worries.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average was up 23 points, or 0.2%, to 11524 at 3:30 p.m. EDT Thursday, while the Standard & Poor's 500-stock index added 3 points, or 0.3%, to 1213. The Nasdaq Composite fell 10 points, or 0.4%, to 2594.

Stocks whipped from positive to negative territory throughout the session, moving higher midday after French President Nicolas Sarkozy and German Chancellor Angela Merkel issued a joint statement pledging that European Union leaders would have a bailout plan in place by Wednesday. Those leaders also called for immediate talks with the private sector over Greek debt.

Earlier, stocks had fallen after reports that a Sunday European summit could be postponed because of disagreements on how to deploy cash in the Continent's bailout fund.

CFD Commodities

US Gold CFD: 1610
Gold is in its Wave 3 down and the target would be around the 1500 MediumLevel at a very rough guess we will work the wave count down.
The US Indices are likely to create a new high from the consolidation at 11500 that could see the price at 11800, for the final high. If this is the case we may see Gold Silver and Oil follow, I don’t think this is the case however there is one once support that we must cross and have as resistance for more downside and they line up, that is Copper at 30 MajorLevel TL3 Silver at 30 MajorLevel TL3 which will have Gold at 1600 the market needs to have these as retested resistance not support if we are to continue the Gold trade down.

I would suggest covering a percentage of the short trade in Gold close to 1600 then and if the above markets develop resistance at their respective levels then move back in short as the Elliott target is down through 1500 for Gold

Oil WTI CFD: 85.25
Oil is going to follow stock so the current move down can be an abc corrective pattern, if the Dow finds support on 11500 then cover any short positions you may have in the local ASX Energy sector

Base Metals

US Spot Prices (in l/b)
US Copper:           Last: 3.05-
US Nickel:             Last: 8.11-
US Zinc:                Last: 0.77-
US Aluminium       Last: 0.92-

Copper CFD: 305
Copper has moved down nicely as expected to 300 (TL3) and will see a bounce here as a wave 4 in line with Gold, This will place a lot more pressure on our Materials sector today, so we can hold short here. The US BHP is checking 72 as support so keep an eye on that and the Shanghai market, that is also expected to move down further

Forex

US Dollar CFD: 77.30
The European meeting is likely to see the EFSF buying bonds in the secondary markets rather than the ECB which leaves the ECB as the QE back up if need be, either way the traders will tend to buy the Euro, this will see the Dollar down.
From a Elliott point of view it does create two wave counts so focus on the levels for entries, you know the main price points, anything with a 72 will be handy, the 13720 and the 13772 and of course the 138.
Start counting five waves up from the last low 1.3655, work the Elliott count up from there, the US indices will be on the same track. And the flipside for the Dollar the 77.72 has and is still the resistance, we have been considering the Dollar in a wave 4 (Triangle) correction from the 17^th and as we see a push down from here we will see the SP500 and the Euro move together

EURUSD 1.3760
TradingLevels: Levels to work on retests and corrective patterns for the long side, 13750 Midpoint, SG2 13772 and 138 mTL2 Expecting a retest of 140 as the target
Elliott Wave: Counting five wave up from the last low
Trading Strategy: Look for long trade set ups on retests of the levels and especially after abc corrective patterns

AUDUSD 1.0260
TradingLevels: On the long side look for support on 10272 and 103 in line with the Euro and SP500 however the Base metals market can weigh on the price, so support on the 10272 and the 103 is critical
Elliott Wave: Expect an abc correction at these old highs 10272 SG2 and 103. Start counting the impulse wave  up (five waves) from the last low around the 10165 SG2 which should see the five wave complete at around the SG2 10272/80 or the 103
Trading Strategy: It would be preferable to trade off support, so be patient and wait for a three wave abc type of pattern up here around the 103 to work the trade from.

Indices

Dow Jones CFD 11,570
TradingLevels: Expect the price to make new highs based off the 11500
Elliott Wave: Intermediate Wave (2) is still in play and especially while its above 11,500, this opens a series of targets starting with the 11650, then 11720 and 11772
Trading Strategy:  Support off the 1150 (ML15)

S&P500 CFD: 1,218
TradingLevels: The 1200 mTL2 has been retest as support and the price should now work higher, short term resistances that you can work as support when the time comes are 1220, 1227, 1230  expect corrective pattern at these levels and the 1230 is the Top of Group1 so this is very important as a support, however expect a larger reaction not so much because of the old highs but because natural supply being present at this level, that said the wave structure should see it burn through quite easily this time
Wave count: Wave C in (2) is starting up
Trading Strategy: find a bullish corrective pattern on one of the levels to work from.

FTSE 100 CFD: 5420
TradingLevels: Find a pattern and a level to work a long trade from
Elliott Wave: abc is completed at 5350, expect high ground and new high
Trading Strategy: Look for a long trade set up

SPI CFD 4150
TradingLevels: Look to work a long trade off the Midpoint 4150 or SG2 4172 then 4200
Elliott Wave: The corrective pattern down can now be finished, the base metals are going to weigh our market down while the European markets lift the US markets  
Trading Strategy: Look for long trade set ups off the levels

Summary

Weekly cycle, strong closing on Friday will see Monday up and this is the run to catch, this is based off  the European meeting this weekend.
The Europe meeting is driving the US and the Dow is above the 11500 and would be expected to make new highs in the last stages of the intermediate Wave (2) rally, let’s say to 11772 – 11800 at a guess. But for us here our ASX market can be sluggish, this is because of base metals and the Shanghai Shenzhen etc, analysis can  have been talking it up for months but it keeps going down, any this market and base metals are the weights for us, so trading ranges should be stronger in the US than here.

The trading strategy, for the ASX would be to lock in short trade profits and get a few long but preferably not in the materials sectors

Trading Quote
Losing because of a new situation is fine, losing again is the beginning of the end.

Today's Financial Events
Time     Currency   Detail     Forecast    Previous
  
11:30am  AUD        Import Prices q/q    0.6% 0.8%  
1:00pm  NZD        Credit Card Spending y/y     4.7%  
Tentative  JPY        BOJ Gov Shirakawa Speaks      
6:40pm  EUR        ECB President Trichet Speaks      
7:00pm  EUR        German Ifo Business Climate    106.3 107.5  
7:30pm  GBP        Public Sector Net Borrowing    11.9B 13.2B  
10:00pm  CAD        Core CPI m/m    0.2% 0.4%  
10:00pm  CAD        CPI m/m    0.1% 0.3%  
4:00am  USD        FOMC Member Kocherlakota Speaks      
6:00am  USD        FOMC Member Yellen Speaks

NOTES:
1. Check the Dividend & Reporting section for your stock on this site before trading
2. Prices may change as this Technical Analysis report is written from 3.30 – 6.30AM
3. Always think things out for yourself, we are only here to bounce ideas around.

Good Morning & Good Luck!

Forex Trading CFD Report - Technical Analysis AUDUSD EURUSD Dollar

US Dollar CFD: 80
There are two positive wave counts here, not that is matters that much, as the main point and the main trend is up. The 80 (TL8) is a Major TradingLevel and we can expect swings across TL8, not only in the near term, but also in the medium term. Like gold edging lower through 1650 and 1500 the Dollar will edge higher


EURUSD 1.3075
TradingLevels: The MinorLevel and the top of Minor Group1 is 1.30, while the Dollar is spending time at TL8|80 the Euro will spend time at mTL3|1.30
Elliott Wave: Wave three makes new low
Trading Strategy: In the bigger picture you understand the Euro is in a major trend down and the Euro, when trending strongly has shallow retracement levels, this of course doesn’t make it any easier to trade, but they are two important points that can offer comfort if your trading daily weekly or monthly bars with the Robo method. Another important point, is that the Euro appears to be leading the bear market the SP500 hasn’t caught up yet, so you could be on your own here

Eur/Usd- Top or only temporary weakness
Thursday, 1 March 2012 at 5:47:00AM AEST

After some strong waves in today’s sessions, we are trying to figure it out the wave structure on Eur/Usd. The pair fell deep as 1.3330, but still only in three wave formation, which could easily be part of a larger uptrend. For not pair is also above 1.3273 invalidation level from the 4h count. So its definitely too soon for any call of a significant Eur/Usd top! But if 1.3273 is out, especially on a daily close basis, that this will be a game-changer