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EarlyBird – Technical Analysis CFD Trading Report – The Day Ahead

Dow Jones – 11,983 -0.51%
Base Metals Mixed
US Gold CFD: 1754
Oil WTI CFD: 94.37
Copper CFD: 357
US Dollar CFD: 77.00
EURUSD 1.3788
AUDUSD 1.0372
Dow Jones CFD 12,000
S&P500 CFD: 1255
FTSE 100 CFD: 5563
SPI CFD 4270

News
NEW YORK -(Dow Jones)- U.S. stocks fell Friday in a session dominated by Europe's sovereign-debt problems, putting blue-chip stocks on track for their first weekly loss since September.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average was down 114 points, or 1%, to 11931, in late-afternoon trading. The Standard & Poor's 500-stock index shed 12 points, or 1%, to 1249. The technology-oriented Nasdaq Composite lost 18 points, or 0.7%, to 2680.

Stocks bounced off lows in afternoon trading about the same time as reports that senior Greek Socialist lawmaker Vasso Papandreou had signalled support for the government in a confidence vote, after previously expressing criticism of Prime Minister George Papandreou. The Greek parliament began a debate late Friday on the confidence vote.

Technical Analysis  CFDs Trading Report

CFD Commodities

US Gold CFD: 1754
If 1750 becomes the retested resistance then look for a short trade set up.
While the price is above 1750 the price is supported.

Oil WTI CFD: 94.37
While the Oil price is above 92 and 93 it’s supported with SG1, the price will struggle at 95 (Midpoint and MinorLevel mTL5) if you long now that’s fine otherwise you would need to wait for the next step of support above and retested on 95. Our target has been the 261.8% at 95.
WPL make that new high, so the 5^th wave can be in place? OSH has not made that new high for the 5^th wave and as mentioned earlier the 6.50 (MediumLevel) will be the resistance.
The Amex oil index which I will try and remember to show in the video is now at the 61.8% basically this market moves with other indices.

Base Metals

US Spot Prices (in l/b)
US Copper:           Last: 3.58-
US Nickel:             Last: 8.54+
US Zinc:                Last: 0.88+
US Aluminium       Last: 0.94-

Copper CFD: 357
Last comment - While the price is above 350 the Midpoint, then the Metals are positive and under 350 they are negative.
New comment – Expect 350 to be tested, then a bounce perhaps back to 356 then down again. Looking for five waves down from the last high 365 (First level in SG2)

Forex

US Dollar CFD: 77.00
The Wave (ii) low around the 7680 could be in place, but the Euro would need to move down from the 1.38, above the 1.38 would see a normal correction for the Dollar that is the 50/62% retracement down the 7650 – 7600. If the 77.20 becomes the retested support then look at longs for the dollar adding above the 7750 as support and then the old high the SG2 with the 77.72 being the main price point, however you would see the price swing across this many times being in the 78 (mTL8) as pater of the larger correction, but eventually the 77.72 and the 7800 as the support to tackle the 80 (TL8) The main point right now is the 77.20 as support or resistance and the Euro at 138 or better still the 13772 a move below this creates the long side on the dollar.

EURUSD 1.3788
TradingLevels: The question is, is the corrective rally up completed in the SP500 and the Euro? If so the 138 should now be the resistance and short trades would be taken on the break of the 137.72 the G20 accouchements will be the driving force, this will lead to a spike down from the 138 or a spike up then running out of stream in the global daily cycle and move down
Elliott Wave: Fridays price pattern can be down for wave one from 13870 to 13710 and wave two up to 138, if this is right them wave three down would be the next move
Trading Strategy: If SG2 (13780 I 13772 I 13765) especially the 13772 is broken or becomes the retested resistance then be short. If 138 or 13830 becomes support be long.
I also need to point out if this is wave count is correct then this is the start of a long term trend down and these are the first positions in the long term trend down and this Position, the 138 as resistance and the breaking of the 13772 should be held for the long term.
The Daily Robo entry 1 would be 13710 we would also take the Weekly Robo entry

AUDUSD 1.0372
TradingLevels: As pointed out with our AUD charts the
Elliott Wave: As pointed out with our AUD charts the Wave (c) of 4 is not completed to the upside, that is a break above the 104, this will depend on the outcome of the G20.
On the five minute chart, the move down from 104 can be a small wave four retracement, however a move under the 10350 Midpoint would rule that out and the bearish picture would emerge this is the same for the SP500 etc.
Trading Strategy: The SG2 1.0372 you need to be on the right side of this for the day ahead

Indices

Dow Jones CFD 12,000
TradingLevels: 12,000 as support or resistance is the starting point and any upside you require 12030 as support, however there is an Elliott count that is suggesting down from here and if that is the case then the 12000 as the resistance then the 11,900 as the trigger to add to shorts
Elliott Wave: It is plausible that the top of Wave (2) is in place as we have seen on Friday the first set of impulse sub wave down, the 12,072 would need to hold the market?
Trading Strategy:  Looking for weakness to short based on the Elliott count; however use the tradinglevels as resistance, retested resistance!

S&P500 CFD: 1255
TradingLevels: Resistance 1272 the 61.8% is around the 1262 which have held, so the Midpoint 1250 as retested resistance would be the short
Wave count: Same - Wave 2 rally that should complete into SG2 (1265 I 1272 I 1280)
Trading Strategy: 1250 as retested resistance is the short

FTSE 100 CFD: 5563
TradingLevels: We are considering the move down from the 61.8% at 5600 a sign of weakness, if this weakness is going to follow through then the SG2 5772 will become the resistance
Elliott Wave: ABC rally for Wave 2 is shaping up to be completed
Trading Strategy: On the short side use the SG2 and the Midpoint for shorts

SPI CFD 4270
TradingLevels: The 4272 SG2 is playing out well if it does become the resistance then short as the volume has been lower to the upside
Elliott Wave: Is the Wave 2 rally completed?
Trading Strategy: 4272, below as retested resistance short and long if support, also take the other two levels within SG2 as support or resistances to add to positions      

Summary

G20 Meeting like most meetings normally deliver a positive spin and therefore positive prices and we need to keep this in mind, the other element is buy the rumour and sell the fact and that’s what we were doing on Friday, however the wave count that we have been tracking , that is the October rally as wave two maybe completed and therefore we should pay special attention now and if we are correct then we can start the short, we would require a little more evidence in the wave of global Indices and currencies, but a top and turn is quite real and we need to be mindful

Trading Quote
I have learned many things from George Soros, but perhaps the most significant is that it’s not whether you are right or wrong that’s important, but how much money you make when you’re right and how much you lose when you’re wrong  Stanley Druckenmiller

Today's Financial Events
Time     Currency   Detail     Forecast    Previous
  
Sun
Nov 6    6:00pm  CAD        Daylight Saving Time Shift      
6:00pm  USD        Daylight Saving Time Shift      
Mon
Nov 7  9:30am  AUD        AIG Construction Index     30.0  
11:30am  AUD        ANZ Job Advertisements m/m     -2.1%  
4:00pm  JPY        Leading Indicators    96.3% 103.8%  
5:45pm  CHF        Unemployment Rate    3.0% 3.0%  
7th-8th  GBP        Halifax HPI m/m    0.1% -0.5%  
7:15pm  CHF        CPI m/m    0.2% 0.3%  
8:30pm  EUR        Sentix Investor Confidence    -19.5 -18.5  
9:00pm  EUR        Retail Sales m/m    0.0% -0.3%  
10:00pm  EUR        German Industrial Production m/m    -0.7% -1.0%  
7:00am  USD        Consumer Credit m/m    5.2B -9.5B  
11:01am  GBP        BRC Retail Sales Monitor y/y     0.3%  
11:01am  GBP        RICS House Price Balance    -23% -23%

Technical Analysis  CFDs Trading Report

NOTES:
1. Check the Dividend & Reporting section for your stock on this site before trading
2. Prices may change as this Technical Analysis report is written from 3.30 – 6.30AM
3. Always think things out for yourself, we are only here to bounce ideas around.

Good Morning & Good Luck!