CFD Trading Strategies

 CFD Trading Strategies

A Leading Technical Analysis Video ‘CFD Trading Strategy Report’ 
In-depth Analysis DJI SP500 FSTE SPI ASX200 Gold Copper Oil Forex AUDUSD EURUSD Dollar & CFD Trades FREE TRIAL

EarlyBird – Technical Analysis CFD Trading Report – The Day Ahead

Dow Jones – 12,231 +0.18%
Base Metals Steady
US Gold CFD: 1744
Oil WTI CFD: 93.50
Copper CFD: 370
EURUSD 1.4150
AUDUSD 1.07
Dow Jones CFD 12,230
S&P500 CFD: 1,286
FTSE 100 CFD: 5700
SPI CFD 4359

News
NEW YORK (Dow Jones)--As doubts crept up Friday on the effectiveness of the euro zone's debt-crisis resolution, Treasury bonds regained some favour from investors, sending benchmark yields lower from an 11-week peak.

The price rally was a reprieve from a selloff on Thursday when investors cheered announcement of a comprehensive package to recapitalize European banks, reduce Greece's debt burden and strengthen the region's bailout fund.

The euphoria appeared to run out of steam Friday as many investors fretted that details still need to be firmed up on the debt deal. Some traders cautioned that implementation of such a grand design could be difficult, especially wooing private investors and sovereign-wealth funds to contribute to the euro zone's crisis-fighting capacity.

CFD Commodities

US Gold CFD: 1744
No Change here, the other aspect is the US Dollar also moving down would help gold higher to the 1772 SG2 -
Counting the five wave up from the 1600 the SG2 (1765 I 1772 I 1780) is about right, The 1772 is roughly the 61.8% retracement level of the Aug / Sept move down from the 1900 to 1500+
The price is in wave (v) and within this wave it’s started wave three. The other aspect we should be aware of is that commodities have a tendency to extend in wave five rather than wave three.
Once this five wave structure is completed the price should turn down, the other level is the profit taking number 8 at 1,800 (mTL8)

Oil WTI CFD: 93.50
Much the same here as well, still looking for a new high here above the 94, the 95 is the Midpoint between 90 and 100 so it is an important level and will see a corrective pattern, once it is finished will it be support or resistance, there is no rush just allow it to play out. The other aspect here it the 93 it is the top of Minor Group1 and support here, separates the price from the 90 (closeted largest number) the Fibo sequence from 90 to 100 is the 1,2,3,5,8. The 1,2,3 is Group1, the 95 is the Midpoint and the 8 is the profit taking, this makes trading a set by step process of support
You can also break it down further between each 1.00 using the same Fibo numbers, this is important for refining entries and stops, so the 93.30 ( 30 as subgroup1) would offer the strength to 93

Base Metals

US Spot Prices (in l/b)
US Copper:           Last: 3.67+
US Nickel:             Last: 8.90-
US Zinc:                Last: 0.878+
US Aluminium       Last: 0.99-

Copper CFD: 370
Same, Wave (iii) and (iv) unfolding through SG2 372 -Now that copper is above 350 we need to look at 400, the expanding wave structure supports further upside, we should see a corrective pattern in SG2 372 – 380 then a push to 400, this wave count is in line with the ASX200 bullish count

Forex

US Dollar CFD: 75.20
There is more downside here for the dollar, however the price needs to work around the 75, the bounce as support then the retest as resistance… This of course will see another push up in the Euro, AUD etc. and also global indices

EURUSD 1.4150
TradingLevels: If going long then wait for support in SG2 1.4172. There will be a strong resistance at 14272 SG2 (Subgroup2)
Elliott Wave: The pull back from 142 is the wave four and looking for a wave five up creating the first high above the level 142, after this first high above 142 then we will see a bigger corrective pattern than the one we have just seen reacting to 142.
The Wave four can pull back the 38.2% which is the 14072 area.
Trading Strategy: If the price stays under the 14172 then allow it to move down to the next support (or short it down), the next support for the wave four pullback to 14100 if this is the case then look to go long from there. Also observe the US dollar work around the 75.00 (mTL5)

AUDUSD 1.07
TradingLevels: The 1.08 is a resistance (8 is profit taking) 1.0772 is a time element.
Expect a larger correction process through these numbers.
Above this is the 1.10 this is MinorLevel 1 (mTL1) and the closet largest number and would see a larger correction, if support is found on 1.10 after a  correction then we can be longer term long.
The current situation is a correction at 107 and the Group1 above (10710 I 10720 I 10730) the 72 number as support creates the long trade 10720.
The Group2 below 107 is the normal support (10665 I 10672 I 10680)
The current correction at 107 is a wave four, so a wave five high (the run up) then a correction (sell off) (use the 1 minute or 2 minute Robo to trade on the RBA Rate at 2.30)
Trading Strategy: The RBA Rate announcement is one Tue 2.30, the expectation is that they will have a cut, so they probably won’t, but at the end on the day it’s a guessing game that’s not worth losing money over. But the norm is to run it up and sell it off, just doesn’t over trade, but hey, you may get more Joy from the Melbourne cup as it’s a slower losing process.

Indices

Dow Jones CFD 12,230
TradingLevels: If you understand Group1 then you will realise that 12300 is the top of group1 and you will know how to work the market will work and what this means.
I’m still in search of the top here, the US reporting season is basically dusted, the Europeans have done their jolly best and everyone is back in the markets, so who and what will drive it up? The idea of a rally is to lure everyone in, and once they are all in then it’s done its job and the market turns, so we will be paying close attention here at this 12,272 SG2 12,300 for a turning point to short
Elliott Wave: The last stages of the Wave (2) rally. On the Intraday count the SP500 seems to have further to go than the DJI, I will try and figure out the what’s what here, The Sp500 Fibo targets and wave count is to 1334
Trading Strategy:  Long to 12300+ then a turn down.

S&P500 CFD: 1,286
TradingLevels: 1,300 is a MinorLevel and it’s also the top of Minor Group1, so being the top of Group1 finding this level as support or resistance is a big thing, as support on top of group1 separates the price from the closet largest number and 1,000 in this case, so success or failure here is a biggy.
Wave count: Looking for the top of wave (iii) to 1300, then wave (iv) across 1300 with SG2 as support once wave (iv) is completed then a move up to 1334? For Wave (v) and that would be the top of the Oct rally. The DJI seems to be ahead of this count so I have made and error somewhere, the Dax FSTE is also fits this
Trading Strategy: SG2 as support with the next move to 1300 then a reaction

FTSE 100 CFD: 5700
TradingLevels: Look for support on 5700 and SG1 for longs and trade to SG2 5772
Elliott Wave: The move down to 5700 is wave four, so a wave five up is expected, then this would be the top. If the 5800 mTL8 does find support after a corrective process then we would trade long, but we are firstly looking for the rally top
Trading Strategy: Look for support on 5700 and then scale in long through SG1 with the importance being support on top of group1 the 5730. navigate the Midpoint 5750 and start scaling out into the 5765 and 5772, if the 5772 becomes support then trade to 5800 and exit, I only expect one more push higher on the DJI then that should be the top, the DAX is much the same. So this next move up from the 5700 support start count five waves to 5800

SPI CFD 4359
TradingLevels: 4350 is the Midpoint and while it’s above this as support the bias is up to 4400
Elliott Wave: The pullback from the high is in line with the most other indices, currencies and commodities, this pullback is considered a bullish corrective pattern as wave four and would be looking for one more high
Trading Strategy: Guessing the direction with Elliott wave is analysis, when it comes to trading use the levels, while the 4350 Midpoint is the support the market is supported, you know the resistance at SG2 (4365 I 4372 I 4380) you know that you would trade to the first level 4365 as take a percentage profit and then exit at 72/ 4372 or use the Robo to manage. If the 72 became support then you can move back in and build / add on the 4380, then you would exit at 4400 (4397) then wait for the reaction, support (72) then the first high above the level, you would be working the SG1
If the price on the opening (after the squeeze) drops below the Midpoint it would run quick to SG1 4330 collecting stops

Summary

US reporting season is being dusted, the Europeans have said their peace and everyone is back in the long side, my question is who is going to come in and lift the markets higher.

Even though markets appear bullish, we still have to consider the move up a rally, because, the move down in May for the DJ World Index (and others) was in five clear waves (impulse) down, after five waves comes a three wave (ABC) counter trend rally 61.8% (roughly) back up, well we are near the top of this ABC rally, (A top this week) another small wave / push higher for the top)

So even though we may be thinking bullish especially here in Australia we cannot simply forget the above, somehow we need to accommodate this in our trading and sure I can be wrong, but I would be much happier to see this current resistance as support.

One way of handling the situation is to think short term, I can see that the DJI and DAX ASX200 AUD etc. will push higher, so we could be looking at Wednesday for the turn.

I’m sure you have a few long trades in the market, so it would not hurt to either tighten up stops and or lock in profits Tue, Wed, Thurs. while we see if we get the turn.

Trading Quote
A trading philosophy is something that cannot just be transferred from one person to another; it’s something that you have to acquire yourself through time and effort.

Today's Financial Events
Time     Currency   Detail     Forecast    Previous
  
Oct 30    1:00pm  CHF        Daylight Saving Time Shift       |
 1:00pm  EUR        Daylight Saving Time Shift      
 1:00pm  GBP        Daylight Saving Time Shift      
Mon
Oct 31  8:45am  NZD        Building Consents m/m     12.5%  
10:15am  JPY        Manufacturing PMI     49.3  
10:30am  AUD        MI Inflation Gauge m/m     0.1%  
11:30am  AUD        Private Sector Credit m/m    0.3% 0.2%  
4:00pm  JPY        Housing Starts y/y    8.5% 14.0%  
6:00pm  EUR        German Retail Sales m/m    1.1% 2.7%  
8:00pm  EUR        Italian Monthly Unemployment Rate    7.9% 7.9%  
8:30pm  GBP        Net Lending to Individuals m/m    0.9B 1.0B  
8:30pm  GBP        M4 Money Supply m/m    0.3% -0.2%  
8:30pm  GBP        Mortgage Approvals    51K 52K  
9:00pm  EUR        CPI Flash Estimate y/y    3.0% 3.0%  
9:00pm  EUR        Unemployment Rate    10.0% 10.0%  
9:00pm  EUR        Italian Prelim CPI m/m    0.2% 0.0%  
11:30pm  CAD        GDP m/m    0.2% 0.3%  
11:30pm  CAD        RMPI m/m    -2.7% -3.2%  
11:30pm  CAD        IPPI m/m    0.1% 0.5%  
12:45am  USD        Chicago PMI    59.3 60.4

NOTES:
1. Check the Dividend & Reporting section for your stock on this site before trading
2. Prices may change as this Technical Analysis report is written from 3.30 – 6.30AM
3. Always think things out for yourself, we are only here to bounce ideas around.

Good Morning & Good Luck!

A Leading Technical Analysis Video ‘CFD Trading Strategies Report’ 
In-depth Analysis DJI SP500 FSTE SPI ASX200 Gold Copper Oil Forex AUDUSD EURUSD Dollar & CFD Trades FREE TRIAL

EarlyBird – Technical Analysis CFD Trading Report – The Day Ahead



Dow Jones – 11,304 -1.64% (7AM Price)
Base Metals Negative
US Gold CFD: 1690
Oil WTI CFD: 96.50
Copper CFD: 327
US Dollar CFD: 79
EURUSD 1.3350
AUDUSD 97.10
Dow Jones CFD 11,300
S&P500 CFD: 1190
FTSE 100 CFD: 5130
SPI CFD 4030

News
U.S. stocks tumbled Wednesday as surprisingly poor demand at a German government-bond auction and weak Chinese data weighed on investor sentiment.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average fell 160 points, or 1.4%, to 11333 in midday trading, after falling as many as 215 points. The Dow's early declines puts the index on pace for a third straight decline, following a two-day fall of 2.6% that left the Dow at a five-week low. With Wednesday's fall, the Dow has now given up half of its October rally, which saw the blue-chip index log its biggest month of gains since 2002.

CFD Commodities

US Gold CFD: 1690
As you know the move up is being counted as a wave iv) rally and didn’t quite get to the targets as gold followed Indices and the Dollar move up, this is all normal flow, however you have to be a bit careful with wave fours as they are normally more complicated that wave two rallies, so in this case the move up may only be the first leg of three swings, the current move down from the 1710 as the second, that said if any of the levels in  SG2 (1780\ 1772 | 1765 become resistance then build the trade into these, or you could even , but with higher risk short any second failed retest of 1700, this is why its good not to over trade and build in positions at different prices and if the trade works against you just unwind each one at the right time and if the market then moves through the levels in your favour then build then back in again, it’s about being flexible at the right time and with the position sizing Less is More.
Once this wave four is complete we can expect gold to make new lows, the US dollar reaching 80 would be good to keep in mind

Sliver should now stay under the last high 33

Oil WTI CFD: 96.50
Much the same - Oil follows stock and this is a bounce of the Midpoint mTL5 | 95.00 as mentioned before once Oil is under 95 as resistance then we can consider the main trend up broken. Traders can use the 98.00 | 97.72 | 97.00 | 96.50 | 96.00 then the 95.00 as the main resistance

Base Metals

US Spot Prices (in l/b)
US Copper:           Last: 3.28-
US Nickel:             Last: 7.43-
US Zinc:                Last: 0.86-
US Aluminium       Last: 0.89-

Copper CFD: 327
Copper is sinking into Minor Group1 330 | 320 | 310 the 320 is the all-important pivot, this as resistance seals it fait to 300 TL3 the Major TradingLevel
The Elliott Wave pattern down from 372  the current low, is still not a good looking impulse wave it still has possible corrective subtleties, which could see a bounce when the ASX200 touches on 4000, so Copper on 300 and ASX 200 around or lower than 4000 and the Chinese markets on a double bottom, will likely put our Australian short trades at risk, any way we have time to work this out.

Forex

US Dollar CFD: 79
The price should dance around 79.00 and then move to 80 (TL8) the Major TradingLevel.
Its only natural to expect swings across this level not only in the near term but also in the bigger picture, that said the trend is up and the Elliott count is up so the longer term direction is up for the dollar and down for the Euro.
Finding support on TL8 is significant for the bigger picture for portfolios and holding cash in any other currency, once support has been found and the price can go to 83.00 Minor Group1 and then retest 80 etc., but once the 80 has been tested as support this is yet another signal to move assets around, as mentioned earlier in the year shifting a precent AUD cash into US dollars via a local bank’s foreign currency holding account is part of the overall plan and once support is found on 80 another part in cash can be moved.  

EURUSD 1.3350
TradingLevels: In the bigger picture - On the daily chart there is a trendline of support that should be notes, which cuts through around the 133 group1 level, the price will eventually move through the trend line to 130 and probably retest the trendline, this may not be the case but its something that we should keep in mind when work the smaller degree of the Elliott count
Elliott Wave: Now that the Euro has moved down from the corrective pattern at 135 the Elliott wave analysis is easier to work as corrections can be the weak spot in Elliott analysis, any way check the Elliott count on the charts
Trading Strategy: If you are short from the 135 – SG2 (13480 | 13472 | 13465) then well done. The TLT (Treasuries) Elliott count support the US Dollar moving up and therefore the Euro down and the French and Belgian bond yields are surging and therefore part of the current catalyst as the drivers. Trading the Euro short simply depends on your trading time frame, however the Daily and Weekly and even Monthly Robo are being used here. Otherwise simply trade the sublevels. The Dollar will spend a short time at 79 and more at 80 so you need to line this up with the Euro price points, the trend line mentioned above can be an important technical, but it is 130 and Group1 (133 | 132 |131) seen and understood as a group with the 132 as the pivot (support or resistance) can be very useful, you should expect a hard time here and the same for the Dollar at 80, its best to expect the worst rather than hope for the best, you don’t have control over this, this is not about positive thinking and creating your own futures thoughts in to reality, this is about preparation and opportunity meeting you want in the longer term the 130 as resistance and you want the Group1 to hold the price to 130 for the struggle rather than a strong bounce off the trendline and the 130, so if the price gets through to 130 you don’t want to see it find support back on the top of group1 133, sure it can trade above it but you don’t want it finding support as this create the foundation for a move up. Any way we are not even there yet, so for the short tern expect a bounce off the 133 on arrival

AUDUSD 97.10
TradingLevels: The price is at 97 so you need to give it time, you should be looking at SG1 above 97 and SG2 below 97 as the support and the resistance. The move up is a rally as the Dollar has a quick check of the 79. If your patient and give the price time within the SG1 and SG2 with the 97 as the line in the sand, you will be able to work out when the rally has run out of steam and what price levels the price is trapped at, you do need to understand how to see and work both SG1 and SG2 for a bullish market and a bearish market and a corrective market rally like this. The Elliott wave can be helpful in recognising patterns
Elliott Wave: the small rally up off the lows from SG2 is currently in three waves so this is corrective but it can turn into five waves Impulse, if it is five waves, then after a abc correction there will be another five waves which in turn can take it higher than the SG1, it’s still only 530AM let’s see what the pattern is when I make the video
Trading Strategy: The rally up from SG2 is just that a rally but how far will it go, try and recognise the Elliott pattern then use the levels to work a trade in either direction

Indices

Dow Jones CFD 11,300
TradingLevels: It’s great to see the prices down, because we are short, however the Gap in the futures markets on most Indices is a concern, for the Dow it’s around the 1800. That said we are in a series of wave threes of Intermediate degree and we should expect as mentioned before the market to pick up speed to the downside and that is what we are seeing. There is volume support in the bigger picture up from the lows of Sept under the 11,000, this 11,000 is also the 61.8% retracement level of the Oct run up so the 11,000 say to 10,800 is the general support, this is the next real space to watch for support, so you can image if this next support fails to hold, then we are at 10,000 TL1
Elliott Wave: Minute Wave 3) of Minor Wave 3 of Intermediate Wave (3)
Trading Strategy:  The 11,500 was easy, but it’s always safer to look at the worst case and work down from that. The next short term supports are 11,300 | 11,200 | 11,100
For the intraday trader use the 1300 and the SG2 11,280 | 11,272 | 11,265 the 11,272 is very important as support or resistance a low close to this price  is also the end of an impulse wave down from the 11,500 I will explain this in the video we can see a retest back to 11500 from here?

S&P500 CFD: 1190
TradingLevels: Once the SP500 has SG2 1180 |1172 | 1165 as the resistance then the market is forced down through the next support 1150 the Midpoint and all is on track for lower price towards the 1100 mTL1 ( MinorLevel 1) being trapped under 1200 mTL2 places the price at 1,000 TL1 this is how Group1 works in any degree, this probably is extremely  high when using Group1 like this in a negative market
Wave count: Wave (iii) to the 1150
Trading Strategy: The Gap is not being covered on any of the futures markets, this is a concern but we will stay with the current unfolding impulse waves down, so continue to short the retest of the sublevels

FTSE 100 CFD: 5130
TradingLevels: This large third wave is powerful we will see the prices at 5000 shortly, but expect bounces at all the right places 5100 and the sublevels
Elliott Wave: There is more downside in the impulse wave in line with the US  markets
Trading Strategy: Depending on your strategy time frame, for the bigger picture was to glean small short positions under the 5500 and though Group1 with the aim of waiting for the 5000 to become the retested resistance so we can add to short positions, this still is the case but we don’t know if the 5000 will give us a hard time or not, normally it would however the US indices are in and Intermediate wave (3) down, this is a powerful structure, this is where countries ban short selling

SPI CFD 4030
TradingLevels: There is support around 4000 for the ASX200 and the SPI this is psychological, the 61.8% is at mTL8 | 3800 Indicator will be presenting over sold signals but as always use each level as support and resistance, try and work out the Elliott pattern within the degree time frame you are working and check on the volume to confirm the price action
Elliott Wave: Its more important to work the levels now that the 4000 is on the door step, the Elliot wave count is down
Trading Strategy: Expect the price to sink into 4000. One of the better times to get a position in the SPI is in the US afternoon session, the current daylight saving is on your side, but I guess if you up at that time you may as well trade the Dow as it moves faster.

Summary

The US markets continue to move down and from the Elliott perspective the powerful intermediate Wave (3) is certainly unfolding on track.
The wave 3 up in US treasuries confirms the US Dollar wave count and therefore pushes down the Euro, the Euro and the SP500 | Dow will work in line with the Euro and so will our AUD and ASX.
Traders swap Gold for US Dollars and the base metals are not far behind the precious metals, so all in all, all markets are doing the right thing and we are short, we could of would of should have had more short positions, but we played it safe and took the worst case scenario of a unknown bounce off the 11500 on the Dow but the holding pattern was small and turned out to be nothing to worry about, but I still feel we play the choice technically.
The Intermediate Wave (3) in the Dow is clearing out supports with a flick, the next really supports are the old low from Sept there are orders here traders bought here, they will buy again, there should be a bounce unless something crazy happens which is also possible, the current drivers are the French and Belgian Bonds peaking, but the real problems haven’t started yet, the big fish haven’t been notice yet, how many people does Greece have? Would have to be under 10 Million people, that’s a small problem really… Any way there is support from the 10500 to 11000 for the down this is real and we need to observe this battle of volumes, if the 11500 was retested properly and it still may, however the nromaly flow is a retest of the 11500 and if it fails then the 10,000 is the target the volume support will fade under the selling pressure, the 11,000 is also the 61.8% retracement of the Oct rally, this also see the US Dollar at 80 and the ASX200 at the 4000 but more importantly its 618% of the 2009 rally at 3800 and the Copper market at 300 and then the Chinese Markets at a double bottom, so there is support all around the world, but the wave count in the main markets treasuries, Indices, currencies etc. suggests these supports will disappear  

Trading Quote

Volatility is greatest at turning points, diminishing as a new trend becomes established.-George Soros

Today's Financial Events
Time     Currency   Detail     Forecast    Previous
  
8:45am  NZD        Trade Balance    -454M -751M  
6:00pm  EUR        German Final GDP q/q    0.5% 0.5%  
Tentative  CHF        Employment Level       
Postponed  GBP        Housing Equity Withdrawal q/q    -5.9B -5.8B  
8:00pm  EUR        German Ifo Business Climate    105.5 106.4  
8:30pm  GBP        Revised GDP q/q    0.5% 0.5%  
8:30pm  GBP        Prelim Business Investment q/q     11.6%  
8:30pm  GBP        Index of Services 3m/3m    0.3% 0.4%  
11:00pm  GBP        CBI Industrial Order Expectations    -19 -18  
All Day  USD        Bank Holiday      
12:30am  CAD        Corporate Profits q/q     -4.9%  
1:00am  EUR        Belgium NBB Business Climate    -11.3 -10.4

NOTES:
1. Check the Dividend & Reporting section for your stock on this site before trading
2. Prices may change as this Technical Analysis report is written from 3.30 – 6.30AM
3. Always think things out for yourself, we are only here to bounce ideas around.

Good Morning & Good Luck!

CFD Trades - CFD Trading Strategies - CFDs Systems - CFD Trading

S&P500 1 Hour Chart
US Index Trading S&P500 CFD Trading Strategies - Elliott Wave
Weakness on S&P500 is fully in progress, after a break out of the trading channel, which if we get also a bearish close at the end of the day, should be a confrimation for a black wave 3 sell-off. So after-that broken trend line will then tend to react as a resistance in wave iv). But at the moment wave iii) still underway, with next support seen around 1160.

Thursday, 24 November 2011 at 1:00:00AM AEST

US Index Trading S&P500 CFD Trading Strategies - Elliott Wave Report

CFD Trading Strategies (Robo Trading Strategy)
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Dow Jones CFD 11,540
TradingLevels: Ok, the rally is here, corrections are the trickiest part of Elliott Wave they are the weak spot, Elliott unfortunately only developed three rules when using his method, the Impulse wave is straight forwards, corrections, can be simple or complicated, we can also use the tradinglevels to sort out the basic of being long or short, so while the price is above 11500 the MediumLevel the market has to be treated as bullish, if the price finds 11500 as resistance we are bearish, it’s that simple.
Elliott Wave: Wave counts and targets, most futures markets created a Gap on the 21 Nov and these Gaps would be target points, they are however quite high, we can’t say if they will be covered or not, all we knew is that there would be a rally and this current move up could also be the first leg of three swings, we just don’t know yet. The move up was swift and is now running out of steam
Trading Strategy:  Let’s just keep it simple, let’s just give the price time at 11,500 to develop either a stronger support or find itself as the resistance. there is the case for the current high to be the top now, this is from one internal wave count, but I don’t want to call a top without evidence of downside structure, the levels and volume, it better to see the current price searching for support on 11500, the internal volume supports this view, the next level up is the 11650

S&P500 CFD: 1190
TradingLevels: Gap target 1212, current resistance mTL2 | 1200 support SG2 1172 zone
Wave count: abc rally wave four, the 38.2% retracement level is close to 1200
Trading Strategy: Apart from scalping, when the 1172 becomes the resistance then short.  If the price finds support on 1200 trade to 1215

Index Trading Research and Analysis

Dow Jones CFD 11,580
TradingLevels: The bottom line is that while the price is above 11500 the MediumLevels the price is support and we can’t really short
Elliott Wave: The rally should complete about here, that is under the 11650, but the Gap at 11,800 is a bother? That is the 61.8% retracement level and while the price is above 11500 that is possible
Trading Strategy:  Normally, being above 11500 we would be long, but there is more evidence that this is a rally than a bull run so we simply have to tread lightly and be patient

S&P500 CFD: 1190
TradingLevels: Gap target 1212, current resistance mTL2 | 1200 support SG2 1172 zone, we can see that over the last two sessions the price has not really move much to the upside so it is struggling and there is a wave count that can call this move up completed, but only completed as Wave (a) of an abc correction
Wave count: I’m thinking that the move up is only the Wave (a) of an (a) (b) (c) correction
Trading Strategy: Expecting a move down from 1200 to 1172 SG2

FTSE 100 CFD: 5320
TradingLevels: Target Gap 5343 covered, the price has some support a 5272 | 5300 however the price like US Indices has been running out of stream in this area, so there is either a top or a larger corrective pattern to unfold?
Elliott Wave: I have to wonder if the move up is just the Wave (a) of an (a) (b) (c) correction, we have to keep this in mind when the move down starts as an option
Trading Strategy: Looking for your favourite short set up when you see weakness

SPI CFD 4100
TradingLevels: The 4100 as support or resistance is the play, expect a small corrective pattern here, If and when the top of subgroup1 4130 develops as support then you can add to longs, with the target at 4150
Elliott Wave: Yes the 38.2% retracement level is the 4100 (mTL1) however we have to consider the move up as just Wave a) of Wave (iv), do there is Wave b) and Wave c) to come, an abc zigzag pattern, it is possible that the Wave (iv) is completed at 4100 now, but we have to look at all the possibilities when using Elliott and then eliminate them based on evidence.
Trading Strategy: Expect the price to work down below 4100  

CFD Trading Report

I won’t place any new long trades out until I see the volume in the afternoon.
Also protect profits on long trades as Tuesday is profit taking day.

CFD Trading Systems Technical Analysis
TradingLounge.com.au creates and uses this report to understand market direction for the opening of the Australian market for its CFD Trades that also come from the TradingLounge’s mechanical CFD Trading Systems Daily Robo System 1 & 2 you can get a free trial of this cfd trading report and CFD Trading Systems Daily Robo System 1 & 2 you at tradinglounge.com.au

CFD Trading Sytems & CFD Strategies Report

VIDEO Technical Analysis Report YouTube http://youtu.be/Q2rOpIPjNK8

Dow Jones – 12,019 -0.01%
Base Metals Positive
US Gold CFD: 1738
Oil WTI CFD: 101
Copper CFD: 358
US Dollar CFD: 78.72
EURUSD 1.3390
AUDUSD 1.02
Dow Jones CFD 12,010
S&P500 CFD: 1246
FTSE 100 CFD: 5510
SPI CFD 4290

News
NEW YORK -(Dow Jones)- U.S. stocks finished barely changed in Friday's session to cap a strong week after the U.S. unemployment rate unexpectedly dropped and European leaders and central bankers redoubled efforts to tackle the sovereign-debt crisis.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average finished with a loss of 0.61 point, or less than 0.1%, at 12019.42, but surged 7% this week, the biggest weekly percentage gain since July 2009. The Standard & Poor's 500 stock-index shed 0.31 point, also less than 0.1%, to 1244.28, but added 7.4% this week, the steepest weekly rise since March 2009. The Nasdaq Composite eked out a rise of 0.73 point to 2626.93 and ended the week up 7.6%.

A stronger-than-expected monthly jobs report and signs of progress were not enough to sustain a triple-digit Dow advance early in the session. Stocks tracked a swift mid-session decline in the euro, with European bond yields also changing course midsession.

CFD Commodities

US Gold CFD: 1738
Daily trend line resistance creates daily bar reversal.
This has also occurred in line with the bounce on the US Dollar and the lower Euro, the Lower Euro hasn’t been confirmed by the SP500.
Elliott Wave; we are considering the move up corrective and the main wave count would end here now with the spike into 1760 or SG2 1772, this is a wait and see, waiting for confirm impulse wave down and or a move below 1720.
TradingLevels; if the price finds support on 1750 the Midpoint, then expect 1772 to be reached.
Flipside; US Dollar wave count is likely to move from the 78 support to above 80, this of course will apply pressure for Gold to move down? The other market that can help confirm is US Copper if the price finds 350 as resistance then you have base metals on your side. There is likely to be softness in these markets as the US Indices meet supply right now.
Trading Gold; long with support on 1750, short with 1720 as retested resistance and add as the 1700 becomes the retested resistance of Long if 1772 and SG2 develops support
Silver; is still working through the mTL3 level 33.00 wait for a Failed Retest of 33.00 before shorting, the mTL2 level 32.00 is the pivot with this MinorGroup1 and if this becomes the resistance, then expect he price to eventually move through TL3 Major TradingLevel and is likely to move quicker than gold IF this market is to move down because of the slight divergence. 

Oil WTI CFD: 101
Oil is developing support on 100 (TL1 Major TradingLevel) This creates the long bias and trade, stops at 99.63, If 101 develops support then work that level, make sure it has been retested first confirm that support is there!  Oil has been flipping in and out of moving with stock and dollar but is also getting back to its old self of doing its own thing, so we have to trade it for what it does alone and currently it has retested 100 as support will it climb higher stepping though the sublevels group1 (SG1)  (101 | 102 I 103 ) support on this SG1 would place the price at 105 the Midpoint and support on this creates the price at 110 the first MinorLevel mTL1

Base Metals

US Spot Prices (in l/b)
US Copper:           Last: 3.56+
US Nickel:             Last: 7.96+
US Zinc:                Last: 0.92+
US Aluminium       Last: 0.94+

Copper CFD: 358
While copper is above 340 the Elliott wave structure up remains positive.
TradingLevels, while the 350 remans support the market is positive, it can be retested to 347 as a larger correction unfolding at this level, if the 350 becomes the retested resistance then the market bias is negative, this is an important line in the sand for the ASX market and our current long bias with the Robo trading

Forex

US Dollar CFD: 78.72
The US dollar should now move above 80 and the Euro down, however these sharp moves  are not confirmed by the SP500 Dow or Treasuries?
Trading Dollar, when the price finds support on 78.72 (SG2) then trade long and short in the Euro

EURUSD 1.3390
TradingLevels: The rally back into 134 appears corrective, so expect 134 to become resistance, if this is the case then bias short, if the 13372 SG2 becomes the resistance then add to the short position, if you see the SP500 move down then markets are back tune and continue short Also expect the US Dollar to correct / swing across 79 in three swings, if after that the dollar finds support on 79 then add to the short on the Euro
Elliott Wave: While the Dollar is above 78 and the Euro below 135 then we can have the change in trend, but we need to US Indices to confirm this, this is the tricky bit as the Asian still appear to have another swing up, the ASX above 4400 perhaps even the 4500 if it extends. So the Dollar and Euro if correct would be leading the turn?
CFD Trading Systems: If you were short under the 13472 then you would be out at 134, if not then if 134 becomes support think of the exit or 13430 becomes support exit, if the 134 becomes resistance then look to short under the 13372 SG2.

AUDUSD 1.02
TradingLevels: Same - The price is in SG2 1.01 | 1.02 | 1.03  the 1.02 is the central pivot and support or corrective pattern here would see the price above 1.03 and support on top of SG1 1.03 separates the price from 1.00 psychologically  speaking. The current support on 1.02 is positive and any long trade would be taken off the support on its group1 1.0230, the main resistance would the 1.0272
Elliott Wave: Expect a larger corrective pattern at 102 as the Dollar is expected to push higher to 79 and correct across 79 if it finds support then it will push up and the AUD down under the 102, the 102 as resistance creates a bearish bias for the AUD back to 101 or 1.00
CFD Trading Systems: Allow the market time to work out if the 102 pivot (10172) as support or resistance and work the trade from there, expect the price to stay in SG1 in a larger corrective pattern. The RBA Rate and Figures on Tue are likely to create the break out.

Indices

Dow Jones CFD 12,010
TradingLevels: The 12172 target was achieved and now the 12000 is being tested as support or resistance
Elliott Wave: Friday – five small intraday waves down from the high – either Wave 1 or A
Count 1: Corrective rally completed - The 12172 SG2 high can be the top of the abc rally wave count and if this is the case then the market will work down form here, the US and the Euro are confirming this, but we are yet to really see it in the US Indices yet?
Count 2: A bullish wave four unfolding across 12000.
CFD Trading Systems:  The five small waves down from the high will see a abc rally then another five waves down, that is a bounce off 12000 then a move below, the question is will this three waves down turn into a larger five waves down creating the top, we just need time to see. The Euro and Dollar are leading the possibility of a top being in place.  The ISM US manufacturing figures tonight can create the bounce abc bounce?

S&P500 CFD: 1246
TradingLevels: Keeping it simple, give the 1250 to become the support or resistance
Wave count: There are two counts we are following, one is a top in place now and the other is a corrective pattern at the 1250 and then another move up above 1272, so far the US Dollar creates the bias for the SP500 top being in place, but more evidence is required, as the Asian markets are suggesting higher, any way we will be patient and work through this
CFD Trading Systems: long or short from the 1250 as support or resistance, on the retest of this price.

FTSE 100 CFD: 5510
TradingLevels: The corrective pattern is still unfolding across 5500 within the range, we just have to allow it to unfold, it will show itself as support or resistance.  You know the SG1 above and the SG2 below to help create a trade, the 5472 as resistance for the short and the 5530 as the long
Elliott Wave: We are working two wave counts on the US markets and it’s the same here for UK, one, a top can be in place at the last high or a larger corrective pattern unfolding, we just cant be sure either way, so time is need to see.  
Trading Strategy: No strategy for the next session while the price is at 5500 it should become clearer by Wed as the US markets will only create a abc rally then five down on the intraday.

SPI CFD 4290
TradingLevels: Support SG2 (4265 | 4272 | 4280)
Elliott Wave: The Wave structure is still unfolding higher, however a wave four corrective pattern is unfolding across 4300, see the chart on the SPI. As you may be aware we are working two wave counts on the US markets and one of those counts has a top in place now, this can reflect back here, this count with the top in place is being confirmed be the US Dollar, any way just be careful here at the 4300, at minimum expect a corrective pattern at mTL3 4300. The move down last night is in five waves, this will produce another five waves after a bounce off the SG2 4272
CFD Trading Systems: the 4220 is the line in the sand for being long or short

CFD Trading Summary

I have left Friday summary below because so much of it is relevant now and through to the Euro meeting 8/9^th Dec. The only element that we need to keep an eye on is the weekly cycle as Friday’s closing was strong as we were expecting and therefor looking for the follow through on the Monday with profit taking on Tuesday, but this is a concern as the Dow was softer, this too was expected as there was not follow through from the five central banks allowing lower credit, but that’s no surprise either as it didn’t work the last two time they did it, but the Euro meeting on the 8/9^th can pull a rabbit out of the hat if they really wanted too, but in the mean time we have to deal with what we see and we see two possible wave counts, one, is a top in place now for the Dow, the second a larger corrective wave four pattern at 12000, we just don’t know, we can see the Dollar bounce which would help confirm lower prices for the Dow, but the treasuries have only slightly confirm this but not enough to call the turn, Monday in the US will still not confirm the larger degree of pattern either as we can see the internal intraday pattern and know how that will play out but even once that is finished its still not enough evidence to confirm the next degree, so it’s a wait and see scenario.
The ASX200 and the Asian region has a more positive picture, however the ASX200 requires support on top of 4300 (MinorGroup1) support on this would see the 4500 the next level as the target, but this support is a long time coming, the XMJ Materials sector will find the 11500 as the resistance even though the supply is a little higher the XXJ Banking sector can run higher to the 4800 and a likely driver.

The 44 day cycle for the SP500 on the 7^th Dec for the technical and the fundamental financial event on the 8/9^th Dec Euro meeting are the catalysts for higher or lower prices and are good times to reduce position sizes by half, there is a time for being defensive and a time to be active, you need to choose the battle you know you can win 

Friday’s CFD Trading Systems  Summary

The markets did not follow through last night, this is not a strong bullish action.
That said the small intraday patterns do appear to be corrective and therefor can expect a move higher tonight in the US, the catalyst will be the US Employment figures as the ADP figures on Wed were up, but this would also be priced in, so it’s the expectations.

In terms of the wave count for the US markets, there is the case for the markets to roll over right here and now as and abc correction up is completed, or we are going to see these three waves turn into an impulse wave i.e. five waves, which would take use around to mid next week. There is also the Euro meeting on the 9 Dec, so the next  from Wed the 7^th and the 9^th and may as well chunk in the full moon on the 11^th Sunday can all be turn points for this move, the 7^th is also the 44 day rally which I will explain in the video.

The weekly cycle for day trading, the Wednesday panned out on track as did Thursday yesterday opening higher and closing lower like BHP and CBA did, so Friday, if Friday closes higher on stronger volume then Monday will also be the bull day, refining that a little starts on Thursday, when the lower close closes on lower volume (i.e. no sellers) then Friday morning starts to see some support that gains during the day to create the stronger close, so the trading cycle is to scale in on the low volume and low price on Thursday and start adding Friday as you see the climb in price and volume and keep your fingers crossed for a bullish move on Monday :-}

Trading Quote

Don’t risk more than you cannot look at positively later. Don’t let the outcome of one trade alter your trading discipline. One trade doesn’t make a system…

Today's Financial Events

Time     Currency   Detail     Forecast    Previous
9:30am  AUD        AIG Services Index     48.8  
10:30am  AUD        MI Inflation Gauge m/m     0.1%  
11:30am  AUD        ANZ Job Advertisements m/m     -0.7%  
11:30am  AUD        Company Operating Profits q/q    3.2% 6.7%  
8:00pm  EUR        Final Services PMI    47.8 47.8  
8:30pm  EUR        Sentix Investor Confidence    -21.4 -21.2  
8:30pm  GBP        Services PMI    50.7 51.3  
9:00pm  EUR        Retail Sales m/m    0.2% -0.6%  
2:00am  USD        ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI    53.6 52.9  
2:00am  USD        Factory Orders m/m    -0.2% 0.3%  
4:10am  USD        FOMC Member Evans Speaks  

NOTES:
1. Check the Dividend & Reporting section for your stock on this site before trading
2. Prices may change as this Technical Analysis report is written from 3.30 – 6.30AM
3. Always think things out for yourself, we are only here to bounce ideas around.

Good Morning & Good Luck!

CFD Trading Report - Technical Analysis Gold

CFD Gold 1 Hour Chart Elliott Wave
Perfect follow through on gold, after the prices retraced for 38.2% in wave ii as highlighted on Friday, before market collapsed sharply through wave i supports. A fall during Asian hours was very sharply and it seems we are trading impulsively, primary in wave ii which may reach 1670 area in the coming sessions.

CFD TRADING REPORT - CFD TRADING STRATEGIES

CFD Trading Strategies

US Gold CFDs: 1613
If you have been day trading and shorted it at 1630 then you are braver than I but well done. I’m a bit of a chicken I like to see a market confirm first, a retest on a certain price point, in this case the 1600 would be fine, so waiting for a move through 1600 to 1590 then a retest of 1600 and failing, then scaling in short adding when 1590 is retested then working the SG2 and especially the 1572 level (72).
We also have to remember that we are in a wave four and wave four can get complicated, so the move up from 1565 to the current high can just be the Wave a of a larger abc correction, at the moment we will call it competed but we now need to see the evidence of an impulse structure down (series of five waves).
One of the problems here of course is that this market is following stock / Indices and if the move up yesterday in the US Indices is Wave (i) and todays pull back is wave (ii) then the next Wave is Elliott Wave (iii) up, so Gold can follow the Indices up. We would need to see Gold split from the Indices and the catalyst for this would be the US Dollar moving up, which we now see as the abc pullback is completed but not confirmed, it you need to stay above 80 TL8, we can also look to the CAD and CHF wave counts to help us with the Dollars wave count as they will be in tune to some degree and of course the Euro and SP will be in tune which in turn can help with the Dollar doing the opposite

Sliver The pattern that retested TL3 30.00 is more complete as a three wave corrective pattern and there for is the short from 30.00 with stops above the last high