Index Trading Research and Analysis

Dow Jones CFD 11,580
TradingLevels: The bottom line is that while the price is above 11500 the MediumLevels the price is support and we can’t really short
Elliott Wave: The rally should complete about here, that is under the 11650, but the Gap at 11,800 is a bother? That is the 61.8% retracement level and while the price is above 11500 that is possible
Trading Strategy:  Normally, being above 11500 we would be long, but there is more evidence that this is a rally than a bull run so we simply have to tread lightly and be patient

S&P500 CFD: 1190
TradingLevels: Gap target 1212, current resistance mTL2 | 1200 support SG2 1172 zone, we can see that over the last two sessions the price has not really move much to the upside so it is struggling and there is a wave count that can call this move up completed, but only completed as Wave (a) of an abc correction
Wave count: I’m thinking that the move up is only the Wave (a) of an (a) (b) (c) correction
Trading Strategy: Expecting a move down from 1200 to 1172 SG2

FTSE 100 CFD: 5320
TradingLevels: Target Gap 5343 covered, the price has some support a 5272 | 5300 however the price like US Indices has been running out of stream in this area, so there is either a top or a larger corrective pattern to unfold?
Elliott Wave: I have to wonder if the move up is just the Wave (a) of an (a) (b) (c) correction, we have to keep this in mind when the move down starts as an option
Trading Strategy: Looking for your favourite short set up when you see weakness

SPI CFD 4100
TradingLevels: The 4100 as support or resistance is the play, expect a small corrective pattern here, If and when the top of subgroup1 4130 develops as support then you can add to longs, with the target at 4150
Elliott Wave: Yes the 38.2% retracement level is the 4100 (mTL1) however we have to consider the move up as just Wave a) of Wave (iv), do there is Wave b) and Wave c) to come, an abc zigzag pattern, it is possible that the Wave (iv) is completed at 4100 now, but we have to look at all the possibilities when using Elliott and then eliminate them based on evidence.
Trading Strategy: Expect the price to work down below 4100  

Technical Analysis Video EarlyBird CFD Report (connected to Youtube)

Technical Analyst CFD Trading Report Indices Forex Commodities

Summary

The markets did not follow through last night, this is not a strong bullish action.
That said the small intraday patterns do appear to be corrective and therefor can expect a move higher tonight in the US, the catalyst will be the US Employment figures as the ADP figures on Wed were up, but this would also be priced in, so it’s the expectations.

In terms of the wave count for the US markets, there is the case for the markets to roll over right here and now as and abc correction up is completed, or we are going to see these three waves turn into an impulse wave i.e. five waves, which would take use around to mid next week. There is also the Euro meeting on the 9 Dec, so the next  from Wed the 7^th and the 9^th and may as well chunk in the full moon on the 11^th Sunday can all be turn points for this move, the 7^th is also the 44 day rally which I will explain in the video.

The weekly cycle for day trading, the Wednesday panned out on track as did Thursday yesterday opening higher and closing lower like BHP and CBA did, so Friday, if Friday closes higher on stronger volume then Monday will also be the bull day, refining that a little starts on Thursday, when the lower close closes on lower volume (i.e. no sellers) then Friday morning starts to see some support that gains during the day to create the stronger close, so the trading cycle is to scale in on the low volume and low price on Thursday and start adding Friday as you see the climb in price and volume and keep your fingers crossed for a bullish move on Monday :-}

CFD Commodities

US Gold CFD: 1713
This market is now clearly displaying an impulse wave down (five waves) so  we should soon see and abc three wave rally, this three wave rally is normally 61.8% that would be roughly 1740, but gold over the years has more of a bias of working to 50% rather than 618, from the levels point of view there are a few basic points, one are the supply points and the second one starts around 1740 to 1750 this is the main resistance, there is a small amount of supply around 1720+ apart from the all-important levels of supply are the levels, firstly is the 1730, it’s ok to trade above the top of group1 (1730) but finding support on it creates the target of 1750 then next level, also in this case because of the 72 the 1720 any support on 1720 creates a further bullish picture, but normally understanding Group1 support and Supply zones are the basics, then comes trading, or rather trading comes first and in trading being defensive comes first then attack, apart from the trading psychology is the trading plan and apart from the money management is the trading time frame or rather the degree of levels that you are trading MajorLevels MediumLevels MinorLevels or sublevels, if your trading time frame is the Minor or Sublevels and you are trading short, then you would simply cover any short positions at 1700 and then wait for the rally or 1700 to become the retested resistance, if you are trading the Medium  you would be short with a stop above the 1750 and would be looking to add either on the rally or 1700 as resistance, all you need to be is clear on your plan and method

Silver: Look for a rally abc, the main rally target would be 32.72 SG2

Technical Analysis - Dow Jones CFD Report

Trading Indices - Technical Analysis

Dow Jones CFD 12,218
TradingLevels: 12,000 is support, the next important support is 12,300 this is the top of Group1 and support on 12,300 separates it from the 12,000 story, finding support on top of 12,300 is critical  for the next degree of wave structure to be positive, there are a few critical number a stock fails at and the top of Group1 is one of them, so the 12,300 is something we can keep in mind.
Short term wave ratio’s place the next high at 12,272 to 12,337 first expect a small corrective pattern at 12,200 and within SG1 and SG2 of 12,200
Elliott Wave: Looking a five waves up from the last low 11,961 to 12,300+
Trading Strategy:  for the market to remain positive, it must remain above 12,134. If you’re going short term long, then wait for solid support on 12,200, a small corrective pattern first across 12000 then support before going long, as the current move up is actually only three waves i.e. corrective abc so it can fail right here, so as long as it stays above 12,500 as support a long trade is safe

Technical Analysis CFD Trading Commodities

CFD Trading Commodities  - Technical Analysis

US Gold CFD: 1577
The clear impulse wave (five waves) is certainly picking up speed as the US dollar moves higher and the indices sell off. The next target is approaching quickly, which is the next MediumLevel 1500 (ML15).
There is the sublevels that the price needs to navigate, first up is Subgroup2 {SG2 1580|1572|1565} followed be the Midpoint 1550, then Subgroup1 {SG1 – 1530|1520|1510}.
At each of these three levels expect corrective price action and plan your trading around them. The technical anlaysis Elliott wave structure has further downside to get to 1500 with only a small wave four to navigate, the larger corrective pattern should come at 1500. There is still more downside to come after the corrective pattern at 1500

Sliver; now has a nice clean break through 30.00 (TL3) the first MinorLevel is 28 (mTL8) The third short position should come from a failed retest, either of the 30.00 or the 28.00, if it is the 30.00 then great and also place the fourth trade on the failed retest of 28.00, do not over trade, under trading actually makes more money in the long run, simply because you can allow yourself to do the right thing and the right time and allow that to play out fully.

Oil WTI CFD: 95.74
I’m glad Oil is down, as I could get my head around where the upside was coming from, I was starting to wonder if the hedge funds were trying to push it again like they did last time when it when to 140+ .  Anyway once it locks under 95 the Midpoint then its free to let go of 100.  Any shorting of Oil stocks on the ASX NYSE should be part positions and looking to add if 95 then 90 become the resistance. As the pattern above 95 is still a bullish corrective pattern and not a clear impulse wave down, so in the structure so far there is no real evidence for further downside, it’s just last night’s move swing the boas to the bearish position and therefore we can laydown amounts according to that, i.e. one small position short in stock that we can add to later if correct

Base Metals

US Spot Prices (in l/b)
US Copper:           Last: 3.24-
US Nickel:             Last: 7.89-
US Zinc:                Last: 0.83-
US Aluminium       Last: 0.86-

Copper CFD: 326
We could see the technical analysis selling pressure here yesterday and it has followed through, copper can be such a good guide to the other markets.  The price range is extending, expanding down, so will the markets related to this the ASX XMJ AUD etc. We chose this sector yesterday over the energy sector to short and this can continue but the energy sector is starting to pull into line on the down side.

Index CFD Trading - Dow Jones Technical Analysis

Dow Jones CFD 11880
TradingLevels: If the 11,800 mTL8 becomes resistance then another layer of weakness is created, the first is simply being under 12000 and 11,800 as resistance is where you would add to shorts. The MediumLevel 11,500 is the game changer. Other smaller levels worth noting such as 11,772, 11,720 and 11650 will have their say.
Elliott Wave: In the bigger picture there are still two wave counts a bullish and bearish, from a trading point of view we have to trade what we see and that is the bear
Trading Strategy:  We started to short stocks on the NYSE last night and will continue with that. Once the price is locked under the 11,800 then the target is 11500 and Intermediate Wave (3) would be underway

CFD Index Day Trading Technical Analysis

Dow Jones CFD 11880
Technical Analysis
TradingLevels: The retest pattern to 12,000 is corrective, so new lows should be made under 11,800 also meaning the 11,500 MediumLevel comes back into view and of course this opens a larger door and of course confirms Intermediate Wave (3) is underway
Elliott Wave: The bias for Intermediate Wave (3) is looking stronger than one more new high and it is the Euro that leads the way for the Indices to follow as the fear factor grows the trend down
Day Trading Strategies:  11,872 SG2 Resistance short. The 11,772 could be a small stubborn support to navigate but a quick fall is expected from the structure and the failing retest of 12,000 however work the 11,800 as the resistance as price move quick from 8 to 5 that is 11,800 to 11,500.