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Dow Jones CFD 11,540
TradingLevels: Ok, the rally is here, corrections are the trickiest part of Elliott Wave they are the weak spot, Elliott unfortunately only developed three rules when using his method, the Impulse wave is straight forwards, corrections, can be simple or complicated, we can also use the tradinglevels to sort out the basic of being long or short, so while the price is above 11500 the MediumLevel the market has to be treated as bullish, if the price finds 11500 as resistance we are bearish, it’s that simple.
Elliott Wave: Wave counts and targets, most futures markets created a Gap on the 21 Nov and these Gaps would be target points, they are however quite high, we can’t say if they will be covered or not, all we knew is that there would be a rally and this current move up could also be the first leg of three swings, we just don’t know yet. The move up was swift and is now running out of steam
Trading Strategy:  Let’s just keep it simple, let’s just give the price time at 11,500 to develop either a stronger support or find itself as the resistance. there is the case for the current high to be the top now, this is from one internal wave count, but I don’t want to call a top without evidence of downside structure, the levels and volume, it better to see the current price searching for support on 11500, the internal volume supports this view, the next level up is the 11650

S&P500 CFD: 1190
TradingLevels: Gap target 1212, current resistance mTL2 | 1200 support SG2 1172 zone
Wave count: abc rally wave four, the 38.2% retracement level is close to 1200
Trading Strategy: Apart from scalping, when the 1172 becomes the resistance then short.  If the price finds support on 1200 trade to 1215

CFD Trading Report

I won’t place any new long trades out until I see the volume in the afternoon.
Also protect profits on long trades as Tuesday is profit taking day.

CFD Trading Systems Technical Analysis
TradingLounge.com.au creates and uses this report to understand market direction for the opening of the Australian market for its CFD Trades that also come from the TradingLounge’s mechanical CFD Trading Systems Daily Robo System 1 & 2 you can get a free trial of this cfd trading report and CFD Trading Systems Daily Robo System 1 & 2 you at tradinglounge.com.au

CFD Trading Sytems & CFD Strategies Report

VIDEO Technical Analysis Report YouTube http://youtu.be/Q2rOpIPjNK8

Dow Jones – 12,019 -0.01%
Base Metals Positive
US Gold CFD: 1738
Oil WTI CFD: 101
Copper CFD: 358
US Dollar CFD: 78.72
EURUSD 1.3390
AUDUSD 1.02
Dow Jones CFD 12,010
S&P500 CFD: 1246
FTSE 100 CFD: 5510
SPI CFD 4290

News
NEW YORK -(Dow Jones)- U.S. stocks finished barely changed in Friday's session to cap a strong week after the U.S. unemployment rate unexpectedly dropped and European leaders and central bankers redoubled efforts to tackle the sovereign-debt crisis.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average finished with a loss of 0.61 point, or less than 0.1%, at 12019.42, but surged 7% this week, the biggest weekly percentage gain since July 2009. The Standard & Poor's 500 stock-index shed 0.31 point, also less than 0.1%, to 1244.28, but added 7.4% this week, the steepest weekly rise since March 2009. The Nasdaq Composite eked out a rise of 0.73 point to 2626.93 and ended the week up 7.6%.

A stronger-than-expected monthly jobs report and signs of progress were not enough to sustain a triple-digit Dow advance early in the session. Stocks tracked a swift mid-session decline in the euro, with European bond yields also changing course midsession.

CFD Commodities

US Gold CFD: 1738
Daily trend line resistance creates daily bar reversal.
This has also occurred in line with the bounce on the US Dollar and the lower Euro, the Lower Euro hasn’t been confirmed by the SP500.
Elliott Wave; we are considering the move up corrective and the main wave count would end here now with the spike into 1760 or SG2 1772, this is a wait and see, waiting for confirm impulse wave down and or a move below 1720.
TradingLevels; if the price finds support on 1750 the Midpoint, then expect 1772 to be reached.
Flipside; US Dollar wave count is likely to move from the 78 support to above 80, this of course will apply pressure for Gold to move down? The other market that can help confirm is US Copper if the price finds 350 as resistance then you have base metals on your side. There is likely to be softness in these markets as the US Indices meet supply right now.
Trading Gold; long with support on 1750, short with 1720 as retested resistance and add as the 1700 becomes the retested resistance of Long if 1772 and SG2 develops support
Silver; is still working through the mTL3 level 33.00 wait for a Failed Retest of 33.00 before shorting, the mTL2 level 32.00 is the pivot with this MinorGroup1 and if this becomes the resistance, then expect he price to eventually move through TL3 Major TradingLevel and is likely to move quicker than gold IF this market is to move down because of the slight divergence. 

Oil WTI CFD: 101
Oil is developing support on 100 (TL1 Major TradingLevel) This creates the long bias and trade, stops at 99.63, If 101 develops support then work that level, make sure it has been retested first confirm that support is there!  Oil has been flipping in and out of moving with stock and dollar but is also getting back to its old self of doing its own thing, so we have to trade it for what it does alone and currently it has retested 100 as support will it climb higher stepping though the sublevels group1 (SG1)  (101 | 102 I 103 ) support on this SG1 would place the price at 105 the Midpoint and support on this creates the price at 110 the first MinorLevel mTL1

Base Metals

US Spot Prices (in l/b)
US Copper:           Last: 3.56+
US Nickel:             Last: 7.96+
US Zinc:                Last: 0.92+
US Aluminium       Last: 0.94+

Copper CFD: 358
While copper is above 340 the Elliott wave structure up remains positive.
TradingLevels, while the 350 remans support the market is positive, it can be retested to 347 as a larger correction unfolding at this level, if the 350 becomes the retested resistance then the market bias is negative, this is an important line in the sand for the ASX market and our current long bias with the Robo trading

Forex

US Dollar CFD: 78.72
The US dollar should now move above 80 and the Euro down, however these sharp moves  are not confirmed by the SP500 Dow or Treasuries?
Trading Dollar, when the price finds support on 78.72 (SG2) then trade long and short in the Euro

EURUSD 1.3390
TradingLevels: The rally back into 134 appears corrective, so expect 134 to become resistance, if this is the case then bias short, if the 13372 SG2 becomes the resistance then add to the short position, if you see the SP500 move down then markets are back tune and continue short Also expect the US Dollar to correct / swing across 79 in three swings, if after that the dollar finds support on 79 then add to the short on the Euro
Elliott Wave: While the Dollar is above 78 and the Euro below 135 then we can have the change in trend, but we need to US Indices to confirm this, this is the tricky bit as the Asian still appear to have another swing up, the ASX above 4400 perhaps even the 4500 if it extends. So the Dollar and Euro if correct would be leading the turn?
CFD Trading Systems: If you were short under the 13472 then you would be out at 134, if not then if 134 becomes support think of the exit or 13430 becomes support exit, if the 134 becomes resistance then look to short under the 13372 SG2.

AUDUSD 1.02
TradingLevels: Same - The price is in SG2 1.01 | 1.02 | 1.03  the 1.02 is the central pivot and support or corrective pattern here would see the price above 1.03 and support on top of SG1 1.03 separates the price from 1.00 psychologically  speaking. The current support on 1.02 is positive and any long trade would be taken off the support on its group1 1.0230, the main resistance would the 1.0272
Elliott Wave: Expect a larger corrective pattern at 102 as the Dollar is expected to push higher to 79 and correct across 79 if it finds support then it will push up and the AUD down under the 102, the 102 as resistance creates a bearish bias for the AUD back to 101 or 1.00
CFD Trading Systems: Allow the market time to work out if the 102 pivot (10172) as support or resistance and work the trade from there, expect the price to stay in SG1 in a larger corrective pattern. The RBA Rate and Figures on Tue are likely to create the break out.

Indices

Dow Jones CFD 12,010
TradingLevels: The 12172 target was achieved and now the 12000 is being tested as support or resistance
Elliott Wave: Friday – five small intraday waves down from the high – either Wave 1 or A
Count 1: Corrective rally completed - The 12172 SG2 high can be the top of the abc rally wave count and if this is the case then the market will work down form here, the US and the Euro are confirming this, but we are yet to really see it in the US Indices yet?
Count 2: A bullish wave four unfolding across 12000.
CFD Trading Systems:  The five small waves down from the high will see a abc rally then another five waves down, that is a bounce off 12000 then a move below, the question is will this three waves down turn into a larger five waves down creating the top, we just need time to see. The Euro and Dollar are leading the possibility of a top being in place.  The ISM US manufacturing figures tonight can create the bounce abc bounce?

S&P500 CFD: 1246
TradingLevels: Keeping it simple, give the 1250 to become the support or resistance
Wave count: There are two counts we are following, one is a top in place now and the other is a corrective pattern at the 1250 and then another move up above 1272, so far the US Dollar creates the bias for the SP500 top being in place, but more evidence is required, as the Asian markets are suggesting higher, any way we will be patient and work through this
CFD Trading Systems: long or short from the 1250 as support or resistance, on the retest of this price.

FTSE 100 CFD: 5510
TradingLevels: The corrective pattern is still unfolding across 5500 within the range, we just have to allow it to unfold, it will show itself as support or resistance.  You know the SG1 above and the SG2 below to help create a trade, the 5472 as resistance for the short and the 5530 as the long
Elliott Wave: We are working two wave counts on the US markets and it’s the same here for UK, one, a top can be in place at the last high or a larger corrective pattern unfolding, we just cant be sure either way, so time is need to see.  
Trading Strategy: No strategy for the next session while the price is at 5500 it should become clearer by Wed as the US markets will only create a abc rally then five down on the intraday.

SPI CFD 4290
TradingLevels: Support SG2 (4265 | 4272 | 4280)
Elliott Wave: The Wave structure is still unfolding higher, however a wave four corrective pattern is unfolding across 4300, see the chart on the SPI. As you may be aware we are working two wave counts on the US markets and one of those counts has a top in place now, this can reflect back here, this count with the top in place is being confirmed be the US Dollar, any way just be careful here at the 4300, at minimum expect a corrective pattern at mTL3 4300. The move down last night is in five waves, this will produce another five waves after a bounce off the SG2 4272
CFD Trading Systems: the 4220 is the line in the sand for being long or short

CFD Trading Summary

I have left Friday summary below because so much of it is relevant now and through to the Euro meeting 8/9^th Dec. The only element that we need to keep an eye on is the weekly cycle as Friday’s closing was strong as we were expecting and therefor looking for the follow through on the Monday with profit taking on Tuesday, but this is a concern as the Dow was softer, this too was expected as there was not follow through from the five central banks allowing lower credit, but that’s no surprise either as it didn’t work the last two time they did it, but the Euro meeting on the 8/9^th can pull a rabbit out of the hat if they really wanted too, but in the mean time we have to deal with what we see and we see two possible wave counts, one, is a top in place now for the Dow, the second a larger corrective wave four pattern at 12000, we just don’t know, we can see the Dollar bounce which would help confirm lower prices for the Dow, but the treasuries have only slightly confirm this but not enough to call the turn, Monday in the US will still not confirm the larger degree of pattern either as we can see the internal intraday pattern and know how that will play out but even once that is finished its still not enough evidence to confirm the next degree, so it’s a wait and see scenario.
The ASX200 and the Asian region has a more positive picture, however the ASX200 requires support on top of 4300 (MinorGroup1) support on this would see the 4500 the next level as the target, but this support is a long time coming, the XMJ Materials sector will find the 11500 as the resistance even though the supply is a little higher the XXJ Banking sector can run higher to the 4800 and a likely driver.

The 44 day cycle for the SP500 on the 7^th Dec for the technical and the fundamental financial event on the 8/9^th Dec Euro meeting are the catalysts for higher or lower prices and are good times to reduce position sizes by half, there is a time for being defensive and a time to be active, you need to choose the battle you know you can win 

Friday’s CFD Trading Systems  Summary

The markets did not follow through last night, this is not a strong bullish action.
That said the small intraday patterns do appear to be corrective and therefor can expect a move higher tonight in the US, the catalyst will be the US Employment figures as the ADP figures on Wed were up, but this would also be priced in, so it’s the expectations.

In terms of the wave count for the US markets, there is the case for the markets to roll over right here and now as and abc correction up is completed, or we are going to see these three waves turn into an impulse wave i.e. five waves, which would take use around to mid next week. There is also the Euro meeting on the 9 Dec, so the next  from Wed the 7^th and the 9^th and may as well chunk in the full moon on the 11^th Sunday can all be turn points for this move, the 7^th is also the 44 day rally which I will explain in the video.

The weekly cycle for day trading, the Wednesday panned out on track as did Thursday yesterday opening higher and closing lower like BHP and CBA did, so Friday, if Friday closes higher on stronger volume then Monday will also be the bull day, refining that a little starts on Thursday, when the lower close closes on lower volume (i.e. no sellers) then Friday morning starts to see some support that gains during the day to create the stronger close, so the trading cycle is to scale in on the low volume and low price on Thursday and start adding Friday as you see the climb in price and volume and keep your fingers crossed for a bullish move on Monday :-}

Trading Quote

Don’t risk more than you cannot look at positively later. Don’t let the outcome of one trade alter your trading discipline. One trade doesn’t make a system…

Today's Financial Events

Time     Currency   Detail     Forecast    Previous
9:30am  AUD        AIG Services Index     48.8  
10:30am  AUD        MI Inflation Gauge m/m     0.1%  
11:30am  AUD        ANZ Job Advertisements m/m     -0.7%  
11:30am  AUD        Company Operating Profits q/q    3.2% 6.7%  
8:00pm  EUR        Final Services PMI    47.8 47.8  
8:30pm  EUR        Sentix Investor Confidence    -21.4 -21.2  
8:30pm  GBP        Services PMI    50.7 51.3  
9:00pm  EUR        Retail Sales m/m    0.2% -0.6%  
2:00am  USD        ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI    53.6 52.9  
2:00am  USD        Factory Orders m/m    -0.2% 0.3%  
4:10am  USD        FOMC Member Evans Speaks  

NOTES:
1. Check the Dividend & Reporting section for your stock on this site before trading
2. Prices may change as this Technical Analysis report is written from 3.30 – 6.30AM
3. Always think things out for yourself, we are only here to bounce ideas around.

Good Morning & Good Luck!

CFD Trading Report - Technical Analysis Gold

CFD Gold 1 Hour Chart Elliott Wave
Perfect follow through on gold, after the prices retraced for 38.2% in wave ii as highlighted on Friday, before market collapsed sharply through wave i supports. A fall during Asian hours was very sharply and it seems we are trading impulsively, primary in wave ii which may reach 1670 area in the coming sessions.