EarlyBird Report – 29 June

Dow Jones Index +1.21% 12,188
US Dollar Index -0.31% 75.04
US August Gold (Globex) 1500
WTI Oil (Globex)   92.80
Copper (Globex) 410
US BHP +2.22% 91.26
Base Metals: Positive
AUDUSD 1.0540
EURUSD 1.4370
SPI 4520

US News Wire
U.S. The energy and consumer-discretionary sectors led U.S. stocks higher following reports of progress in European leaders' Greek-debt negotiations.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average rose 120 points, or 1%, to 12164 in afternoon trade, with Caterpillar rising 3% and Home Depot adding 2.4%. The Standard & Poor's 500-stock index gained 13 points, or 1%, to 1293. The technology-oriented Nasdaq Composite rose 32 points, or 1.1%, to 2720.

Investors bet on a better turn in the Greek-debt crisis after France's plan for helping to resolve the country's debt problems got a favourable response from German banking associations. The French plan, which aims to orchestrate the orderly participation of private creditors, would have banks reinvest half the proceeds from maturing bonds into 30-year bonds. Stocks have risen and fallen for weeks on news about Greece.

Commodities

US August Gold Futures 1500
No real change here, we expected a corrective pattern at 1500 and its still unfolding, we have changed the Elliott labelling, to a Wave 4 at 1500, this would see a eventually see a move to SG2 1472 and then a retest back to 1500.
Wave fours as you know can be tricky they can be the most complicated, so wait for a clear price resistance to occur at this MediumLevel 1500 before shorting, I say this because the Dow is above 12,000.
Silver is doing much the same at the Fibo 34 level as mentioned before

Oil WTI (Globex Futures) 92.90
The bounce in Oil has finally started, ignited be the rise in stock, this is also seen in base metals. 91 I 92 I 93 are MinorGroup1 (MG1) if the price can develop support on top of MG1/ 93 then it can go to 95 (mTL5) MinorLevel.
The Elliott count is seeing this as a corrective rally, on our charts as a wave four, but as a trader, trade the levels, it’s how you can control the trade.

Base Metals

US Spot Prices (24HR in l/b)
US Copper:           Last: 4.09+
US Nickel:             Last: 10.22+
US Zinc:                Last: 1.01+
US Aluminium       Last: 1.11+

Copper (Globex Futures) 407
You know I like the Copper market, as it firmly integrated into many aspects of life and therefor a good guide stick, without it trending it’s hard to confirm other market trends, such as the AUDUSD going down when Copper is above the MediumLevel ML4, and the obvious local Materials sector which includes US BHP at 90 (ML9) Being above ML4 /400 the market is supported and sure it’s a long way off being support above 430 top of group1 but for now being above 400 is a stabiliser and why we locked in 50% in our ASX BHP short trade at 42.

Forex

US Dollar Futures (c) DXY 76.10
The short term for the Dollar and the Euro have a few interpretations, so it would be far better to use the price and the 144 for the Euro as support and resistance and the 75 for the DXY, we now have to give them time to play out at these levels and pick up the trade from here long or short based off S/R
The DXY would need to get back above 7572 as a sign of further strength.

EURUSD

TradingLevels: Back at 144, thee is not a lot to say here, as it will simply fail here or find support, so patience is require
Trade Strategy: no position trading just trading the sublevels, which can be used to glean a larger position.
The price nearly reached 144 and reacted, it’s looking for support… if it traded back above SG2 14372 then trade it to 144

AUDUSD 

TradingLevels: Above the level 105 and the bias in positive, the structure of the move up can be corrective or impulse, this aspect requires more time to develop, however the actual internal trends and corrections are expanding in size, this is momentum from volume interest
Elliott Wave: The last two trends down (see chart today) have equality, this is more of a corrective element, so upside potential looms. The 105 is the critical price for support for this to occur.
Trade Strategy: Trade the sublevels

Indices

Dow Jones Futures CFD 12,180

TradingLevels:
The price above our 12000 pivot and above the 12100 flips the bias to the upside, which would be in line with the Shanghai Markets rally.
Elliott Wave: The structure of the move up is currently corrective (three waves) but this can develop into a positive impulse (five waves) time is required.
Trade Strategy: Every 100 points is important to the Dow so the 12,200 will meet resistance, it’s also an old high and can fail from this point, we have to expect a reaction at least from here or a sideway correction across it

S&P500 CFDs 1,280

TradingLevels: Retesting 1300 expect a reaction.  While it’s under this level we have to treat it as corrective. Let’s wait to see if the market finds support or resistance here before over reacting
Elliott Wave: While the price is above the 1272 its short term positive but now its close to 1300 we just have to allow the corrective structure play out
Trade Strategy: wait

FTSE 100 Futures 5750

TradingLevels: Resistance 5800 Support 5772 SG2 requires retesting to confirm
Elliott Wave: The short term trend yesterday was bullish and now the larger trend is bullish because it made a new high, it still has to work through the 5800 mTL8, so expect a ABC correction pattern across it. The mTL8 is a profit taking number so it can fail here, so there is a lot of important on the pattern created at 5800
Trade Strategy:  observe the corrective or sell off pattern at 5800

SPI Futures 4471 

TradingLevels: Above 4500 is positive and a rally can emerge from here. The Copper market and the Shanghai market we talked about on Monday were the stabilising factors, and yesterday the Dow being above 12000 is the other. The Shanghai is the safe bet to say it will rise further, whereas the Dow is uncertain every 100 points is a test. And while the SP500 has 1300 as resistance there is risk.
Trade Strategy: long above 4500 stops under

Summary

Our short term thinking yesterday was that the rallies were just that rallies and they still can be for the US Indices and we were expecting Oil and Gold to rally, we see this as still the case for these markets. If the SP500 found a robust support on top of 1300 then a more positive bias would form.

Where the strength does come from in my view is Copper, it was the only market not going down and the first sign of strength came from the Shanghai (should correct at 2800) and Shenzhen mentioned on Monday as it have the first five waves up off its lows.
The other was our local SPI as we also talked Monday and Tuesday about its first five waves up and how yesterday the SPI maintain its higher low whereas the ASX200 created the new low, these were the first signs of strength, the other was US BHP having five wave down from 100 to just below 90, which now is completed by the move up last night

Another confirming aspect is the AUD being back above 105, but what makes this interesting as a positive is that the last two trends down were equal this is a corrective element not an impulse element, this also lines up with copper

The rally in the SP500 can be a wave 4, but if it finds support above 1300 then we can flip the bias to the upside and this would be fine with the Euro count, but as the SP500 wrestles with 1300 the Euro will dance with the Fibo 144.

So what to do with our trades; the first rule of trading is to protect the asset. Opinions can get us into loss with having rules, trade rules and risk management rules, it’s our job to track and trade the markets not hold on our opinions, if the direction changes three times I would rather go with that, take the small losses and be on the right side of the market if it going to trend.
That said, many of the short trades we have are loaded with selling pressure so they are fine, we don’t know if the SP500 will fail at 1300 or that the ASX200 will find support on 4500, it’s still early days. It doesn’t hurt to lock in some profits on some of the short trades.

At the end of the day the 4500 is the line in the sand and being above or below this swings the bias of the market, we know the markets are over sold, but we don’t know the extended of any rally that does take place. But we have to make some effort to move with the bias.

Trading Quote
"To change emotional responses takes constant self-awareness, time, fundamental personal honesty, and the willingness to suffer the pain of letting something go that we feel is dear to us."

Traders, we would like to inform you that content (Charts) published on FOREX GOLD SP500 OIL  will not be updated from Friday July 1st till July 15th 2011. The EarlyBird will do its best to cover these until the 15^th July.

Today's Financial Events
Time     Currency   Detail     Forecast    Previous
  
9:50am  JPY     Prelim Industrial Production m/m    5.6% 1.6%  
All Day  EUR     Italian Bank Holiday      
6:30pm  GBP     Net Lending to Individuals m/m    1.2B 1.2B  
6:30pm  GBP     Index of Services 3m/3m    0.7% 0.9%  
6:30pm  GBP     M4 Money Supply m/m    0.3% 0.1%  
6:30pm  GBP     Mortgage Approvals    46K 45K  
7:30pm  CHF     KOF Economic Barometer    2.23 2.30  
9:00pm  CAD     Core CPI m/m    0.2% 0.2%  
9:00pm  CAD     CPI m/m    0.3% 0.3%  
12:00am  USD     Pending Home Sales m/m    1.3% -11.6%  
12:30am  USD     Crude Oil Inventories     -1.7M  
2:00am  USD     FOMC Member Raskin Speaks

NOTES:
1. Check the Dividend & Reporting section for your stock on this site before trading
2. Prices may change as this report is written while markets are closing/trading
3. Always think things out for yourself, we are only here to bounce ideas around.

Good Morning & Good Luck!

EarlyBird Report 730AM - Shares CFD Forex Report

Trading Quote

I learned that the markets offer the trader an opportunity to profit from price movement, and these opportunities are basically in perpetual motion. It is an environment where the individual has the freedom to create his own results, unimpeded by many of the constraints that exist in everyday social life. These never ending opportunities make the market a perfect mirror of the trader's attitude. What the trader sees in that movement and what he can do about it the markets have no control over. All the choices and all the power to turn these choices into experience reside in the mind of each trader.----The Disciplined Trader,Mark Douglas

CFD Trading Report - Gold Elliott Wave

Gold 4 Hour Chart
Thursday, 30 June 2011 at 5:10:00PM AEST

-change in trend...

A bearish reversal that occurred in the past week, looks extremely sharp, a move that should be part of some larger downtrend. In fact, prices also moved below the trend line connected from May lows, which is another strong evidence of a coming weakness. As such, even deeper levels are now in view, as a previous support line should now react as a resistance.

CFD Trading Report - Gold Elliott Wave

CFD Report - part of the EarlyBird Report 7.30AM

Summary

The US markets and the European markets are trading quite close to their last highs, they have not had a correction on the way up, so it’s only logical to assume they will run into profit taking over the next few sessions. If they were going to fail it would be from these old highs and you need to build this risk into your won strategy, perhaps by locking in some profits if you are a short term trader.

The ASX200 and the Shanghai markets are doing much the same, after today they would have developed there first set of five waves up (impulse wave) once completed they will have and abc correction, this abc correction would likely take out stops, so it’s worth scratching your head for a little thought. Because we now have these five waves up, we will get another five waves up, well after the abc correction, so the medium term is looking good for us Asians.

So as the US and European markets face their old highs we would be facing the abc correction.
Our AUDUSD is touching on 108 the profit taking level and will be having its abc when our ASX200 has its abc, but I expect the AUD to eventually make new highs above 110, the main point in mentioning this is that it is a lot of money flowing into the country, the fifth largest trade currency with Australia only having 1% of global GDP is a mighty effort, anyway this will help the local market, the other part of the mix is the base metals and Copper will remain steady at 430.

So the only element to navigate is a pullback Wed / Thursday, so the logical thing to do here, is lock in some profits and the proactive to look for a few weak markets to short such as HVN.
Just another point, if the AUD is going to climb which companies would benefit from this and which would not?

CFD Report

ASX STOCK REPORT

6 July 730AM

Dow Jones Futures CFD 12,560

TradingLevels:
The price is stalling but not failing at 12600, our guess was to see the price back at 12500 checking for support, if the price finds 12550 as resistance then it will. In many cases after a US holiday they come back with gusto pushing the price up, but not in this case.
The basic premise is the price is above 12500 so the bias is a positive market.
 Elliott Wave: If the price can stay above 12550 the pattern from last night is a small abc correction. So the 12550 is a small line in the sand that will dictate a larger move
Trade Strategy: short under 12550 as resistance and long above, however give it time to settle into this number as support or resistance, the price should continue to swing into it as the balance line. The price is also still in the Channel up, so a move back to 12550 would break the price out of that channel, so it’s positive while it’s in it.

S&P500 CFDs 1,339

TradingLevels:
While the price is above 1330 its positive and the bias is up. A move under 1320 is weakness.
There appears to be reoccurring patterns developing, which you can see on the 30 minute chart, they are the sideways patterns which are growing in size, this is a healthy element for the upside, they would be a series of fourth waves as wave twos are normal sharp, so this does tell us that the top of at least this trend is ending, there may be a push to 1350
Elliott Wave: The trend up is in the later stages
Trade Strategy:

FTSE 100 Futures 6020

TradingLevels: Same - ABC pattern to unfold across 6000 with support SG2 5972
Elliott Wave: The trend up is now out of its channel, so a correction is starting into 6000, be a little carful here as ranges will be short and choppy best to trade another market. If the 6030 top of SG1 finds support then trade up
Trade Strategy: above 6030 long, under this no trade

SPI Futures 4550 

CFD Trading Robo System Results

ASX200 Elliott Wave Chart

ASX CFD TRADING REPORT
ROBO WEEKLY

CFD Trading Report

TRADING REPORT

EarlyBird Report – 12 July

Dow Jones Index -1.20% 12,505
US Dollar Index +1.28% 75.98
US August Gold (Globex) 1553
WTI Oil (Globex)   95
Copper (Globex) 435
US BHP -2.72% 93.23
Base Metals: Softer
AUDUSD 1.0755
EURUSD 1.4260
SPI 4500
ASX200 4582

Traders, we would like to inform you that content (Charts) published on FOREX GOLD SP500 OIL will not be updated from Friday July 1st to the July 15th 2011.

US News Wire
Stocks were routed Monday as investors worried that Europe's debt crisis is spiraling out of control, threatening to engulf larger nations like Italy and Spain and create a wider crisis for global markets

Commodities

US Gold Futures 1552
Expect a corrective pattern at 1550, after three swings we can understand if the pattern is corrective abc if so then it will push higher. It is an old high so it will struggle here and can fail here. It is move opposite to stock, however the headwind in the US Dollar as it also pushes up, having these two move together is not the norm, one will give…The 1330 correction is the volume support for stops, but suggest locking in some at 1550 until we can see what the pattern is at 1550

Oil WTI (Globex Futures) 95
Five waves down from the last high to 95, we should see a small abc across or up off 95 then another five waves down, following stock.

Base Metals

US Spot Prices (24HR in l/b)
US Copper:           Last: 4.31-
US Nickel:             Last: 10.42-
US Zinc:                Last: 1.03-
US Aluminium       Last: 1.10-

Copper (Globex Futures) 435
The move down is likely a wave (iv) and the retracement target is 38.2% around 430 the top of subgroup1 (SG1) if it does extend further then 425 is acceptable but under 420 then there is something wrong and a larger bearish pattern would be unfolding.  This current correction down is in line with the Shanghai and the ASX  etc once this wave (iv) is completed we are looking for a push higher. The catalyst for failure here is a strong US Dollar or rather a weaker Euro, the markets will come to a cross roads shortly as US stocks and US Dollar battle it out for the larger direction    

Forex

US Dollar Futures (c) DXY 75.40
On the actual Index the 7650 is the important level as support or resistance, even though there is the Pennant pattern on the daily chart, which is also a series of waves ones and twos in Elliott terms and is breaking to the upside, the sublevel 7650 (65) is an important mile stone in the trend up. So the Euro is the mirror opposite and we have been chatting about it breaking lower within our trend channel through the 140 which it has done and still has lower to go, the daily or weekly Robo was also mentioned a week ago as a good tool for the longer term traders

EURUSD

TradingLevels: The speed of the wave structure down is wave three personality.
Once the price is firmly under 140 we can look at 138 and 13772 for the lows of the wave three. But please understand the size of this trend, the 130 is also in reach
Trade Strategy: Daily and weekly Robo. The price locking under 140 from any retest is the best bet other wise 139. But the trade is short from under 144 with the weekly Robo as the guide stick and use the daily to add and subtract contracts

AUDUSD 

TradingLevels: While the 108 (mTL8) and 10722 are in place the bias is bearish
Elliott Wave: The 61.8% retracement is down around the 10550
Trade Strategy: If you are short from the 10750 then look to the 4 hr, Daily and Weekly Robo and a glass of red so you don’t get emotional

Indices

Dow Jones Futures CFD 12,500

TradingLevels:
The target down was the 38.2% which is 12400 but I mentioned a move down to 12500 as it was the first level and we are there now, It appears it can go lower.
The 12500 is a line in the sand and there does appear to be five waves down to 12500, meaning there should now be three waves up, an abc 5-3-5 correction, but we should strongly consider the 38.2% at 12400. It will be about the 12500 as support or resistance, so work this level
 Elliott Wave: Looking for five waves down to 12400  or 12500 then and abc rally then another five wave down
Trade Strategy: just observe the 12500 as S/R and work any trade from this price point

S&P500 CFDs 1,320

TradingLevels:
The Dow at 12500 is the same as 1320 for the SP500 roughly the 38.2% retracement level.
The move down can also be seen as an abc correction, three swings down, either way we should see short term support at 1320
Trade Strategy:

FTSE 100 Futures 5900

TradingLevels: Like the Dow and SP500 the move down to 5900 is in three waves so it can be a ABC correction but it can also develop into five waves? We just have to wait and see.
Elliott Wave: If it is going to be five waves down then the wave four rally up off 5900 would be 38.2% 5950 But we can also expect a wave one up if the whole last move down was an ABC correction , its just too early to say
Trade Strategy:

SPI Futures 4500

TradingLevels: Expect the cash XJO to drag the SPI under 4500
Elliott Wave: The 61.8% retracement level down is very close to the 4500, it would only be natural to see a bounce off here, however the opening of the cash market would drive the price lower.
Trade Strategy: The low at 4500 the 618% retracement level, has seen three waves down to that point, the opening of the cash can see it lower and also the other Asian markets can take it lower, keep an eye on the Dow Futures during the day and look for support in BHP

Summary

The Strong US dollar or more so the weak Euro is playing a strong part in this correction, the Euro is expected to move lower, and it’s the norm for the Euro and SP500 to move together, so be aware of this.
The wave count down in all indices overnight is the same, they are currently three waves down which can be called and Elliott ABC correction, many of them have reached there Fibo retracement level and other are close. The point is that as an ABC correction they have their lows in place, but the three waves can easily turn into five waves (impulse) if we get five waves it opens either a larger corrective pattern or a larger five waves down. We knew we would be going through this juncture and there’s not a lot we can do about it, except trade less and build small trades into the direction is case the direction expands.
We have done a good job explaining this correction before it occurred and have scaled out of long positions to lighten the exposure and even placed a few shorts. However this next step is important, we simply need to know if we are going to get 3 waves down or 5 waves down and we won’t know until tomorrow or even the following day, so understand any trades placed today would be at risk of being stopped out the following day, so taking part profits is always a good thing.

So 3 waves means up side and 5 waves means more down side….

Trading Quote
"If you don't get what you want, it's a sign either that you did not seriously want it, or that you tried to bargain over the price." --Rudyard Kipling

“A doctor goes to medical school for four years before practicing medicine; a lawyer goes to law school for three years before beginning the practice of law; why then does a sufficient amount of money with which to trade qualify an unschooled individual to be a trader?”  W.D. Gann

Traders, we would like to inform you that content (Charts) published on FOREX GOLD SP500 OIL will not be updated from Friday July 1st till July 15th 2011. The EarlyBird will do its best to cover these until the 15^th July.

Today's Financial Events
Time     Currency   Detail     Forecast    Previous
  
12th-13th  NZD        REINZ HPI m/m     -1.8%  
9:01am  GBP        BRC Retail Sales Monitor y/y     -2.1%  
9:01am  GBP        RICS House Price Balance    -24% -28%  
9:50am  JPY        Tertiary Industry Activity m/m    0.8% 2.6%  
9:50am  JPY        CGPI y/y    2.4% 2.2%  
11:30am  AUD        NAB Business Confidence     6  
12th-16th  CNY        Foreign Direct Investment ytd/y     23.4%  
Tentative  JPY        Monetary Policy Statement      
Tentative  JPY        Overnight Call Rate    <0.10% <0.10%  
3:30pm  EUR        French CPI m/m    0.1% 0.1%  
4:00pm  EUR        German Final CPI m/m    0.1% 0.1%  
Tentative  JPY        BOJ Press Conference      
5:30pm  GBP        MPC Member Bean Speaks      
All Day  EUR        ECOFIN Meetings      
6:30pm  GBP        CPI y/y    4.5% 4.5%  
6:30pm  GBP        DCLG HPI y/y    -0.2% -0.3%  
6:30pm  GBP        RPI y/y    5.2% 5.2%  
6:30pm  GBP        Trade Balance    -7.3B -7.4B  
6:30pm  GBP        Core CPI y/y    3.4% 3.3%  
7:00pm  GBP        CB Leading Index m/m     0.4%
10:30pm  CAD        Trade Balance    -0.8B -0.9B  
10:30pm  USD        Trade Balance    -44.1B -43.7B  
12:00am  USD        IBD/TIPP Economic Optimism    45.7 44.6  
4:00am  USD        FOMC Meeting Minutes

NOTES:
1. Check the Dividend & Reporting section for your stock on this site before trading
2. Prices may change as this report is written while markets are closing/trading
3. Always think things out for yourself, we are only here to bounce ideas around.

Good Morning & Good Luck!

TRADING REPORT

14 July
CFD Copper Report

Copper (Globex Futures) 435
Staying with a wave four correction as long as the price stays above the 430 – 425. Basic correctional patterns are in three swings, copper is entering the third now, however wave fours are the most complicated, that is triangle, double zigzags… so we don’t trade them unless we know for sure, but towards the end of them we can take positions, as the larger the correction the safe the next trend up , as a larger correction and especially sideways corrections that wave fours normally are, are solid foundations (accumulation of buyers) for a solid trend, but the wave five trend will have less volume than the third previous wave, this is why you know the wave five will create a larger top, based on the flow of volume, after all it’s the volume that creates the price    

STOCK REPORT
EarlyBird Report - video's not included

EarlyBird Report – 15 July

Dow Jones Index -0.44% 12,437
US Dollar Index +0.44% 75.28
US August Gold (Globex) 1585
WTI Oil (Globex)   9550
Copper (Globex) 436
US BHP -1.88% 92.27
Base Metals: Steady
AUDUSD 1.07
EURUSD 1.4130
SPI 4550
ASX200 4490

Traders, we would like to inform you that content (Charts) published on FOREX GOLD SP500 OIL will not be updated from Friday July 1st to the July 15th 2011.

US News Wire
U.S. stocks weaved between gains and losses Thursday afternoon after Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke deflated investors' stimulus hopes and an apparent breakthrough in Washington's debt negotiations failed to draw more bullish traders into the market.

Commodities

US Gold Futures 1590
Even though Gold is up, you can see on the 30 minute chart the pattern is struggling under the 1600, partly because of the 1600 price and partly because of the US Dollar bouncing of 75. In the short term expect further resistance here at 1600 and a reaction, any profits should be locked in until 1600 proves itself as support or not. Support SG2 1580

Oil WTI (Globex Futures) 95
The Oil is just following stock and it to would be under selling pressure, keep stops as high as possible, any secondary positions would have to see 95 as the retested resistance.
The pattern up from 90 to 1000 can also be seen as an positive impulse wave, a move down into the 92 are would eliminate that pattern, over the three days or sooner depending on the speed of the price we can give certainty to the larger direction, as in the bigger picture the price can be finally letting go of 100 in this final failing retest in line with stock?

Base Metals

US Spot Prices (24HR in l/b)
US Copper:           Last: 4.36-
US Nickel:             Last: 10.87+
US Zinc:                Last: 1.05+
US Aluminium       Last: 1.11=

Copper (Globex Futures) 436
Same, above 340 and base metals are stable. The pattern above 430 is being considered a wave four, in a minimum of three legs and once competed a new high, however this current third leg can and should test 433    

Forex

US Dollar Futures (c) DXY 7560
The reaction at 75 appears to be a trend changer, which is about right as mentioned yesterday, with the euro also pulling back the 618% around 143, any short term trading can be in the new direction. This would also line up with stock SP500…

EURUSD

TradingLevels: That should be the ABC correctional rally up completed into 143
Trade Strategy: Look for short trade set ups, retesting resistance at sublevels but more likely the 141.  If and once the 140 is resistance then the larger trend is down, as the 14050 price point would create over lapping wave structures.
I need to point that the current move down can also be a wave 4 to 141, with a wave five up, under 141 would remove this, it would be a good idea to also work with the US Dollar in its rally through SG2 7572 (65,72,80) as a guide and the 141 as resistance on the Euro just to get this right

AUDUSD 

TradingLevels: The wave four mentioned in the Euro is the same here for the AUD however it’s a stronger case here for the AUD, its really with a price move under the 10650 that would start to rule this wave four out, much the same as I was talking about yesterday in the video
Elliott Wave: yesterday and last night pattern edging down a wave four, it would be very help if it stayed on 107 as support a short term spike down is also find in SG2 but under that is not a good look for the wave four and a more bearish view would need to be viewed. That said it would also be good to line up the Dow count the 12400 wave four also
Trade Strategy: Give it time at 107 to build as support or resistance and use the SG1 above or SG2 below as triggers to add

Indices

Dow Jones Futures CFD 12,450

TradingLevels:
The 12500 is the line in the sand. Short term bias is down
 Elliott Wave: Not a lot of change here, we are looking for the move to 12400, firstly as the ABC correction, a move beyond this simply opens the next degree of wave count into a more bearish picture
Trade Strategy: Same - Sell rally retests a levels

S&P500 CFDs 1,310

TradingLevels:
1300 mTl3 is the line in the sand, the support ranges from 1260 to 1300.
Trade Strategy: Same - Use each sublevel as support or resistance to trade long or short from but exit at each sublevel and wait for support or resistance to be tested. Expecting further selling pressure

FTSE 100 Futures 5860

TradingLevels: 5800 mTL8 will offer the support and a bounce the supply starts to thicken at 5850.  If the price found 5800 as resistance then look for longer term short.
Elliott Wave: Just looking a  possibility here and this is also true for the other indices. The move up from 5800 to 5900 we called and abc, but what about if that was just the abc for Wave A and the current move down a Wave B, with a Wave C up to go, we need to put this on the table until proven otherwise, a move under 5772 would do that. So if there was a move up as Wave C it would be in five waves back to 5900
Trade Strategy: 5800 as support or resistance, use the sublevels either side to build the trade

SPI Futures 4450

TradingLevels: The 4500 is the line in the sand, with the bias to the downside
Elliott Wave: Two possible counts I will explain in the video
Trade Strategy: If your scalping, (2 minute robo first 9 minutes, then 4 minute bar to 10.15am for the squeeze and or covering the gap) risking 3 to get 7 so to speak, then the direction doesn’t matter, if you’re looking for direction use the 4550 as retested support or resistance

Summary

Dow Jones approaching cross roads, either the 38.2%  wave four pull back to 12400 then up for wave five or under the 12400 as resistance opening the next larger degree of bearishness. That’s the bottom line.
This would show up on the ASX 200 / SPI as the price either being above 4500 or below, its that simple, the tricky bit is which way do we position ourselves what when and how as they say. Well you have to choose a side a lay down the risk, the bet and if correct build on that and if wrong be flexible and change directions. We have started to build to the bearish side and this is because of the banks leading the way, copper is still holding up the base metals and many stocks have good bullish patterns as pointed out in the TradingLevels section yesterday, not as trades but a watch list if the 4500 becomes support.

The Forex Elliott Wave will be in full swing by Monday and a new ASX Elliott Wave section for charts is being developed

Trading Quote
“Any effort that has self-glorification as its final endpoint is bound to end in disaster. When you try to climb a mountain to prove how big you are, you almost never make it. And even if you do it’s a hollow victory. In order to sustain the victory you have to prove yourself again and again in some other way, and again and again and again, driven forever to fill a false image, haunted by the fear that the image is not true and someone will find out. That’s never the way.”

Traders, we would like to inform you that content (Charts) published on FOREX GOLD SP500 OIL will not be updated from Friday July 1st till July 15th 2011. The EarlyBird will do its best to cover these until the 15^th July.

Today's Financial Events
Time     Currency   Detail     Forecast    Previous
  
9:50am  JPY        Monetary Policy Meeting Minutes      
15th-16th  CNY        Foreign Direct Investment ytd/y     23.4%  
6:00pm  EUR        Italian Trade Balance    -2.97B -3.76B  
7:00pm  EUR        Trade Balance    -3.2B -2.9B  
10:30pm  CAD        Manufacturing Sales m/m    -0.3% -1.3%  
10:30pm  USD        Core CPI m/m    0.2% 0.3%  
10:30pm  USD        CPI m/m    -0.1% 0.2%  
10:30pm  USD        Empire State Manufacturing Index    4.5 -7.8  
11:15pm  USD        Capacity Utilization Rate    77.1% 76.7%  
11:15pm  USD        Industrial Production m/m    0.4% 0.1%  
11:55pm  USD        Prelim UoM Consumer Sentiment    72.5 71.5  
11:55pm  USD        Prelim UoM Inflation Expectations     3.8%  
Tentative  EUR        Bank Stress Test Results      
3:10am  GBP        MPC Member Tucker Speaks Bulletin      

NOTES:
1. Check the Dividend & Reporting section for your stock on this site before trading
2. Prices may change as this report is written while markets are closing/trading
3. Always think things out for yourself, we are only here to bounce ideas around.

Good Morning & Good Luck!
STOCK REPORT

EarlyBird Report – 14 July

Dow Jones Index +0.36% 12,491
US Dollar Index -1.18% 75.18
US August Gold (Globex) 1580
WTI Oil (Globex)   9660
Copper (Globex) 438
US BHP +1.93% 94
Base Metals: Steady
AUDUSD 1.0750
EURUSD 1.42
SPI 4508
ASX200 4514

Traders, we would like to inform you that content (Charts) published on FOREX GOLD SP500 OIL will not be updated from Friday July 1st to the July 15th 2011.

US News Wire
U.S. stocks pared their gains in afternoon trading Wednesday, but were still poised to snap a three-day slide as investors saw hope for further economic stimulus from the Federal Reserve.

Commodities

US Gold Futures 1580
Us Dollar down Gold up, things are back to normal. Gold will look for short term support on SG2 (1565 I 1572 I 1580) which is the 65,72,80 group before  testing 1600.
Once aspect in the bigger picture, is to understand that the price is above the half way mark from 1000 to 2000, that is the 1500 MediumLevel, this places the bias at 2000, this is the same psychology of a stock going from 1.00 to 2.00. When you have been around the markets long enough you slowly understand that opinions of something going too high or too low diminish and you simply work with the price.
There is a possible corrective price pattern in silver and I will point that out in the video, so we can observe it in line with gold touching on 1600 and reacting.

Oil WTI (Globex Futures) 98
The MajorLevel TL1 the 100 is the line in the sand for positive or negative.
The current push up to 99 back at the old high from last week does give the market a stronger stance, however it is under the level TL1, so you can’t go long unless its above, as  you would be working against probability.
The other element is that Oil following stock and the move up on the SP500 appears a corrective rally from the five waves down yesterday

Base Metals

US Spot Prices (24HR in l/b)
US Copper:           Last: 4.35-
US Nickel:             Last: 10.83-
US Zinc:                Last: 1.06+
US Aluminium       Last: 1.11+

Copper (Globex Futures) 435
Staying with a wave four correction as long as the price stays above the 430 – 425. Basic correctional patterns are in three swings, copper is entering the third now, however wave fours are the most complicated, that is triangle, double zigzags… so we don’t trade them unless we know for sure, but towards the end of them we can take positions, as the larger the correction the safe the next trend up , as a larger correction and especially sideways corrections that wave fours normally are, are solid foundations (accumulation of buyers) for a solid trend, but the wave five trend will have less volume than the third previous wave, this is why you know the wave five will create a larger top, based on the flow of volume, after all it’s the volume that creates the price    

Forex

US Dollar Futures (c) DXY 7540
The price is retracing the 61.8% of the last trend, with bot the Futures and the Index the main point is that the bias for the trend is up as long as the price stays above 75. The 61.8% of the last trend for the Euro is 143, however in both cases we will stay with the wave count and trade the level, we can also connect the wave count to the SP500, as mentioned yesterday most markets have the same pattern up, this is a fear factor and this is showing in the gold price.

EURUSD

TradingLevels: We have to look at the current move up as a 61.8% retracement of the last trend, the euro is currently lagging the DXY in this, the DXY should bounce off the 75 creating the top for the Euro.
Trade Strategy: Be on the right side of 14150 or 142. The current high has also be created be and overhead trend line

AUDUSD 

TradingLevels: The 10772 is the first resistance and 108 is the next. If the price is going to push through these resistances then expect the TradingLevels Classic pattern to unfold across 108. The reaction, the support, the first high above the level, then the abc correction, then up. I will explain the path. The price is required to stay above 107 - 10672 as a move down now through 107 would create overlapping wave structures
Elliott Wave: The rally up can be like the US Stocks and Euro and abc rally or from here is can turn into and impulse wave, which I think it is.
Trade Strategy: Look for support on 10720 for a push higher through 10772 and 108, it wont be easy and can get choppy, so give it room to move through these numbers

Indices

Dow Jones Futures CFD 12,500

TradingLevels:
Yesterday we had the five waves down (impulse), and last night the three waves up (abc) so now after the three waves up abc we will have another five waves down, so the overall structure from the  high around 12772 level is a 5-3-5 structure – we are entering the last five now. Well not the last, but because we have the first five waves down from the high we can confidently map out the 5-3-5 structure, beyond that we need to talk about the structure of one degree higher as Elliott is a fractal theory. The next degree higher has a few steps, but from a trading point of vide the 12500 mTL5 is a line in the sand for being long or short.
Without making things too complicated  the larger pattern is fine as long as it stays above 12200, under this is not a good look. That said, it’s the 12400 the 38.2% roughly retracement level that we are interested in as a wave four pullback. We have been talking about this in the video and will again today.
 Elliott Wave: The whole move down is viewed as an abc correction to 12400, however this three wave structure can turn into a five wave structure and move further down, we talk about this move down before it occurred and pointed out we would get to a point where we would just have to wait and see, and that point is approaching the 12400. The structures personality is one way of working out what will be occurring, that is basically the speed of the move down, if you panic then it’s probably going to turn into five waves
Trade Strategy: Sell rally retests a levels

S&P500 CFDs 1,316

TradingLevels:
1300 mTl3 is the line in the sand, the support ranges from 1260 to 1300.
Trade Strategy: Use each sublevel as support or resistance to trade long or short from but exit at each sublevel and wait for support or resistance to be tested. Expecting further selling pressure

FTSE 100 Futures 5860

TradingLevels: The price and the trial it’s leaving is having a lot of problems at the resistance 5900, so from here the SG2 5872 etc are the new resistance points, followed by the midpoint 5850 as retested resistance.
Elliott Wave: The pattern into 5900 appears to be a wave four, so look for five waves down to 5800, but I’m not that sure, so the key is being on the right side of 5872, so the stop distance is your risk, so if the price does move in your favour, take enough profit to cover the risk breakeven point while you can, then the trade doesn’t matter, you even.
Trade Strategy:

SPI Futures 4500

TradingLevels: The 4500 is the line in the sand and being on the right side of this is the starting line…
Elliott Wave: Yesterday we talked about the current move up being and abc corrective rally, this is playing out and the price being under 4500 will support further down side.
Trade Strategy: Its simply about the price being above or below 4500 and the sublevels either side SG1 above and SG2 below to add and subtract positions, it’s how you handle the positions while you’re in the trade that affects your P/L

Summary

Gold is up, so is the fear factor.
The US Indices, we have been looking from the top of the market, say the Dow futures 12772 level, a 5-3-5 wave structure down, we have done the first two, the 5 & 3 and are starting the other 5 now.
As long as the Dow stays above 12400 there’s not much to get excited about.
That is the wave four 38.2% retracement level. But while the price is below 12500 then we have to prepare for further downside.

It’s our banks that mostly lead us into and out of trends and with the XXJ the banking sector failing the retest of 5000 places a bearish bias on our markets.
The ASX200, simply give it time to settle into 4500 as support or resistance, this is the line in the sand… yesterday we were talking of a abc rally to 4530 and that is completed now, so there will be pressure to the down side, so trades should work around this level.

The Euro has the same pattern as the indices and the flipside in the US dollar saying above 75 as support, the 75 is its line in the sand and for the Euro the 144 is the balance line, that the euro left behind and now we are looking for the first lower high

AUDUSD is the only positive at the moment, it does now need to prove its self and get through the 10772 and 108.

Trading Quote
“But in all my experience, I have never been in any accident…of any sort worth speaking about. I have seen but one vessel in distress in all my years at sea. I never saw a wreck and never have been wrecked nor was I ever in any predicament that threatened to end in disaster of any sort.”   E.J. Smith, 1907, Captain, RMS Titanic

“Once you have a trading system with a positive expectation, you must establish money management rules. Follow them as if your life depended on them”

Traders, we would like to inform you that content (Charts) published on FOREX GOLD SP500 OIL will not be updated from Friday July 1st till July 15th 2011. The EarlyBird will do its best to cover these until the 15^th July.

Today's Financial Events
Time     Currency   Detail     Forecast    Previous
  
8:45am  NZD        GDP q/q    0.3% 0.2%  
11:00am  AUD        MI Inflation Expectations     3.3%  
All Day  EUR        French Bank Holiday      
6:00pm  EUR        ECB Monthly Bulletin      
7:00pm  EUR        CPI y/y    2.7% 2.7%  
7:00pm  EUR        Core CPI y/y    1.5% 1.5%  
10:30pm  USD        Core Retail Sales m/m    0.1% 0.3%  
10:30pm  USD        PPI m/m    -0.2% 0.2%  
10:30pm  USD        Retail Sales m/m    0.0% -0.2%  
10:30pm  USD        Unemployment Claims    419K 418K  
10:30pm  USD        Core PPI m/m    0.2% 0.2%  
12:00am  USD        Fed Chairman Bernanke Testifies      
12:00am  USD        Business Inventories m/m    0.7% 0.8%  
12:30am  USD        Natural Gas Storage     95B

NOTES:
1. Check the Dividend & Reporting section for your stock on this site before trading
2. Prices may change as this report is written while markets are closing/trading
3. Always think things out for yourself, we are only here to bounce ideas around.

Good Morning & Good Luck!
STOCK REPORT

EarlyBird Report – 13 July

Dow Jones Index -0.10% 12,493
US Dollar Index +0.18% 76
US August Gold (Globex) 1565
WTI Oil (Globex)   9660
Copper (Globex) 438
US BHP -2.72% 93.23
Base Metals: Positive
AUDUSD 1.06275
EURUSD 1.440
SPI 4470
ASX200 4495

Traders, we would like to inform you that content (Charts) published on FOREX GOLD SP500 OIL will not be updated from Friday July 1st to the July 15th 2011.

US News Wire
With the euro-zone debt crisis looming large and an array of inflation readings ticking lower in the developing world, emerging-market currencies broadly weakened while credits booked slight losses across the board.

Commodities

US Gold Futures 1552
The pattern at 1550 is in three waves, so it’s and abc, meaning higher ground, yes it has moved up, but expect more, look for fives waves up, currently its close to the top of the third, so a fourth 38.2% retracement of the third then the fifth wave up.
The sublevels follow the Fibo sequence 1,2,3,5,8. So 1330, 1350, 1380, so the 1380 is next, however there are smaller levels that need to be noted and are part of subgroup 2 (SG2) 1565 I 1572 I 1580 expect the five wave up to complete in  SG2 the lower end, once completed expect a correction.
These are strange times if the Gold is Running with the US Dollar.

Oil WTI (Globex Futures) 9650
Yesterday we talked of five waves down from just under 100 to 95 (MinorLevel mTL5) and were expecting a abc correction bounce, that is well underway. The important sublevel is 9650 then MinorLevel 98 this comes with 9772 and 9765 this is the supply level where the volume created the sell down. The 9720 (72) is the 61.8% retracement level the wave structure can take the price closer to 9772, the main corrective price pattern would be at 9650

Base Metals

US Spot Prices (24HR in l/b)
US Copper:           Last: 4.36+
US Nickel:             Last: 10.55+
US Zinc:                Last: 1.05+
US Aluminium       Last: 1.10+

Copper (Globex Futures) 435
I still take the line, as long as the 425 430 are support the price pattern unfolding is a wave four, it still has another two swings but once completed should move up to 450.
For short term traders the 440 is the supply and resistance point expect a turn here.    

Forex

US Dollar Futures (c) DXY 7620
From the high 77+ expect five waves down to 76, then a three wave abc counter trend the norm would be 618% but use the sublevel working down from 7672 to 7650 then 7630, after the abc bounce then expect another five waves down, apart from 76 the SG2 zone 7572 is the first support.

EURUSD

TradingLevels: The rally should be a wave four within a larger wave three down, the rally price point should be where it is around the 14050 to 14072. The move up appears to be in five waves, so we can label it wave a, if so expect a wave b back into 140 in three smaller waves to 13972 then and another small five waves up to complete an abc wave four correction, as the DXY has three swings, the first is down to 76 - 7572
Trade Strategy: Correction across 140 in three swings

AUDUSD 

TradingLevels: The 10672 SG2 zone is the 61.8% retracement level to watch, with the 106 as the support, a drop below the 106 - 10572 would see further down side
Elliott Wave: The 61.8% retracement roughly at 10530 needs to hold to maintain a larger bullish pattern
Trade Strategy: The pattern up is the same as the Euro, so the DXY and the Euro are important here, you may be able to work out an early lead from them. The other aspect is the SP500 Futures as it also has the same pattern up. Work of supports and resistances keep and trading ranges to the upside short and tight. The SPI has made five waves down so its 618% retracement will be very important. The real concern is the ASX has moved down so quick, we have to hope that the other Asian markets can stabilise a support for the ASX200, the banks will lead the market

Indices

Dow Jones Futures CFD 12,500

TradingLevels:
The same comments as yesterday, the 38.2% target is 12430 with the 12500 being the stronger number would create a support
 Elliott Wave: The pattern sitting on 12500 appears to be corrective, so expect further downside to the 12430…
Trade Strategy: 12500 as S/R

S&P500 CFDs 1,320

TradingLevels:
The move up off 1300 has overlapping internal wave structures, weakness. the support at 1310 will be critical 61.8% of the move up. This is the first bounce off 1300 now observe the pattern that gets created in this range.
Trade Strategy: Use each sublevel as support or resistance to trade long or short from

FTSE 100 Futures 5880

TradingLevels: Like the Dow and SP500 the move down to 5900 is in three waves so it can be a ABC correction but it can also develop into five waves? We just have to wait and see.
Elliott Wave: The 5800 is the 61.8% retracement level of the whole last move up from 5650 to 6080 The move down from the last high appears to be in five waves so after this bounce is completed there should be move downside. The abc bounce up is what needs to be worked out, this first move up is in three waves abc to the 38.2% of the move down, this move up may only be the first of three swings ABC to the 50/62% retracement level, I just don’t know. The short term expect a move down under the 5872
Trade Strategy:

SPI Futures 4500

TradingLevels: ASX200 has come down fast, faster than our other Asian neighbours, this is a concern for the view of further upside, however as long as the 4500 holds as support its technically fine, a move under the 4472 SG2 is not, its normal to expect a bounce off 4500 and that will be the case, it is the pattern of the bounce that will be important to us this is what we need to study to gain insight in to the bigger picture. The Shanghai and the N225 are expected lower in their wave counts this can add the pressure over the week ahead
Elliott Wave: One of the main problems is that the SPI is already trading under its lows. The move down from the last high around 4650 to the current low is in five waves, would I don’t know yet is if this move down is a Wave 1 or Wave 5, this will depend on the ASX200 staying above 4500 and 4472, but the pressure from the carbon tax and the banks leading is going to be a tough one
Trade Strategy: 4500 is the resistance and the price is under that so the bias is short, the triggers are the levels is SG2 such as 4472 as support or resistance.

Summary

Yes the ASX200 is sold off strongly with these two days, so has Hong Kong, Singapore and others, the Shanghai has sold off somewhat but would be expected to retrace down further as we have been chatting about, the strong move on the ASX200 and the room to move down for the other Asian markets places pressure on the ASX200, a move under 4472 creates the bearish picture, remember the ASX200 chart that we put out with the larger bearish picture? I will put it out again as that just well be the case, the SPI is leading the cash, so a move there under its last low 4422 is a trigger. We  understood the ASX and the Dow etc would correct, we just didn’t expect the ASX200 to cover so much ground in such a short time, so it is at risk and the 4472 is critical for a much larger move down.

The Dow has held well on its 12500 and we can give it space to move to 12400 as a wave four correction, but beyond that opens up another picture. Any way not to panic we knew we would be at these prices and we are now here going through this, we need to keep a cool head and use very small amounts of capital to work the bias so the markets, which we will do later in the week, because as mentioned we normally observe the first swing down to see if it’s in three waves or five waves, if the Dow moves to 12400 then we have five waves, then we can expect a three wave abc counter trend and then another five waves down, if the 12500 holds and the Dow moves up then we have three waves down abc correction down and then we can expect mew highs. So we just need to get through that.

Of course our local stocks have their own momentum and we need to trade them on their own merits and we are, we have navigated this roller coaster over the last few weeks quite well, just use the daily Robo method and get your money management right don’t over trade, if you can do this you will be fine. Most people over trade and probability will be hot on your heals to take your money, so control yourself :-)  

Trading Quote
"If you're not making mistakes, you're not trying hard enough." - Vince Lombardi

Traders, we would like to inform you that content (Charts) published on FOREX GOLD SP500 OIL will not be updated from Friday July 1st till July 15th 2011. The EarlyBird will do its best to cover these until the 15^th July.

Today's Financial Events
Time     Currency   Detail     Forecast    Previous
  
13th-14th  NZD        REINZ HPI m/m     -1.8%  
8:45am  NZD        FPI m/m     0.5%  
Tentative  GBP        Nationwide Consumer Confidence     55  
10:30am  AUD        Westpac Consumer Sentiment     -2.6%  
12:00pm  CNY        GDP q/y    9.5% 9.7%  
12:00pm  CNY        Fixed Asset Investment ytd/y    25.7% 25.8%  
12:00pm  CNY        Industrial Production y/y    13.2% 13.3%  
12:00pm  CNY        NBS Press Conference      
13th-15th  CNY        New Loans    623B 552B  
13th-15th  CNY        M2 Money Supply y/y    15.4% 15.1%  
12:00pm  CNY        Retail Sales y/y    17.0% 16.9%  
13th-16th  CNY        Foreign Direct Investment ytd/y     23.4%  
2:30pm  JPY        Revised Industrial Production m/m    5.7% 5.7%  
3:00pm  JPY        BOJ Monthly Report      
4:00pm  EUR        German WPI m/m    -0.2% 0.0%  
5:15pm  CHF        PPI m/m    -0.3% -0.2%  
6:30pm  GBP        Claimant Count Change    15.1K 19.6K  
6:30pm  GBP        Average Earnings Index 3m/y    2.0% 1.8%  
6:30pm  GBP        Unemployment Rate    7.7% 7.7%  
7:00pm  EUR        Industrial Production m/m    0.5% 0.2%  
10:30pm  USD        Import Prices m/m    -0.7% 0.2%  
12:00am  USD        Fed Chairman Bernanke Testifies      
12:30am  USD        Crude Oil Inventories     -0.9M  
4:00am  USD        Federal Budget Balance    -68.0B -57.6B

NOTES:
1. Check the Dividend & Reporting section for your stock on this site before trading
2. Prices may change as this report is written while markets are closing/trading
3. Always think things out for yourself, we are only here to bounce ideas around.

Good Morning & Good Luck!
STOCK REPORT

EarlyBird Report – 12 July

Dow Jones Index -1.20% 12,505
US Dollar Index +1.28% 75.98
US August Gold (Globex) 1553
WTI Oil (Globex)   95
Copper (Globex) 435
US BHP -2.72% 93.23
Base Metals: Softer
AUDUSD 1.0755
EURUSD 1.4260
SPI 4500
ASX200 4582

Traders, we would like to inform you that content (Charts) published on FOREX GOLD SP500 OIL will not be updated from Friday July 1st to the July 15th 2011.

US News Wire
Stocks were routed Monday as investors worried that Europe's debt crisis is spiraling out of control, threatening to engulf larger nations like Italy and Spain and create a wider crisis for global markets

Commodities

US Gold Futures 1552
Expect a corrective pattern at 1550, after three swings we can understand if the pattern is corrective abc if so then it will push higher. It is an old high so it will struggle here and can fail here. It is move opposite to stock, however the headwind in the US Dollar as it also pushes up, having these two move together is not the norm, one will give…The 1330 correction is the volume support for stops, but suggest locking in some at 1550 until we can see what the pattern is at 1550

Oil WTI (Globex Futures) 95
Five waves down from the last high to 95, we should see a small abc across or up off 95 then another five waves down, following stock.

Base Metals

US Spot Prices (24HR in l/b)
US Copper:           Last: 4.31-
US Nickel:             Last: 10.42-
US Zinc:                Last: 1.03-
US Aluminium       Last: 1.10-

Copper (Globex Futures) 435
The move down is likely a wave (iv) and the retracement target is 38.2% around 430 the top of subgroup1 (SG1) if it does extend further then 425 is acceptable but under 420 then there is something wrong and a larger bearish pattern would be unfolding.  This current correction down is in line with the Shanghai and the ASX  etc once this wave (iv) is completed we are looking for a push higher. The catalyst for failure here is a strong US Dollar or rather a weaker Euro, the markets will come to a cross roads shortly as US stocks and US Dollar battle it out for the larger direction    

Forex

US Dollar Futures (c) DXY 75.40
On the actual Index the 7650 is the important level as support or resistance, even though there is the Pennant pattern on the daily chart, which is also a series of waves ones and twos in Elliott terms and is breaking to the upside, the sublevel 7650 (65) is an important mile stone in the trend up. So the Euro is the mirror opposite and we have been chatting about it breaking lower within our trend channel through the 140 which it has done and still has lower to go, the daily or weekly Robo was also mentioned a week ago as a good tool for the longer term traders

EURUSD
TradingLevels: The speed of the wave structure down is wave three personality.
Once the price is firmly under 140 we can look at 138 and 13772 for the lows of the wave three. But please understand the size of this trend, the 130 is also in reach
Trade Strategy: Daily and weekly Robo. The price locking under 140 from any retest is the best bet other wise 139. But the trade is short from under 144 with the weekly Robo as the guide stick and use the daily to add and subtract contracts

AUDUSD 
TradingLevels: While the 108 (mTL8) and 10722 are in place the bias is bearish
Elliott Wave: The 61.8% retracement is down around the 10550
Trade Strategy: If you are short from the 10750 then look to the 4 hr, Daily and Weekly Robo and a glass of red so you don’t get emotional

Indices

Dow Jones Futures CFD 12,500
TradingLevels:
The target down was the 38.2% which is 12400 but I mentioned a move down to 12500 as it was the first level and we are there now, It appears it can go lower.
The 12500 is a line in the sand and there does appear to be five waves down to 12500, meaning there should now be three waves up, an abc 5-3-5 correction, but we should strongly consider the 38.2% at 12400. It will be about the 12500 as support or resistance, so work this level
 Elliott Wave: Looking for five waves down to 12400  or 12500 then and abc rally then another five wave down
Trade Strategy: just observe the 12500 as S/R and work any trade from this price point

S&P500 CFDs 1,320
TradingLevels:
The Dow at 12500 is the same as 1320 for the SP500 roughly the 38.2% retracement level.
The move down can also be seen as an abc correction, three swings down, either way we should see short term support at 1320

FTSE 100 Futures 5900
TradingLevels: Like the Dow and SP500 the move down to 5900 is in three waves so it can be a ABC correction but it can also develop into five waves? We just have to wait and see.
Elliott Wave: If it is going to be five waves down then the wave four rally up off 5900 would be 38.2% 5950 But we can also expect a wave one up if the whole last move down was an ABC correction , its just too early to say

SPI Futures 4500
TradingLevels: Expect the cash XJO to drag the SPI under 4500
Elliott Wave: The 61.8% retracement level down is very close to the 4500, it would only be natural to see a bounce off here, however the opening of the cash market would drive the price lower.
Trade Strategy: The low at 4500 the 618% retracement level, has seen three waves down to that point, the opening of the cash can see it lower and also the other Asian markets can take it lower, keep an eye on the Dow Futures during the day and look for support in BHP

Summary

The Strong US dollar or, more so the weak Euro, is playing a strong part in this current correction. The Euro is expected to move lower, and it’s the norm for the Euro and SP500 to move together, so be aware of this.

The wave count down in all indices overnight is the same. They are currently three waves down which can be called an ElliottWave ABC correction. Many of them have reached there Fibo retracement level and others are
close. The point is that as an ABC correction they have their lows in place, but the three waves can easily turn into five waves (impulse).

If we get five waves it opens either a larger corrective pattern or a larger five waves down. We knew we would be going through this juncture and there’s not a lot we can do about it except trade less and build small trades into the direction is case the direction expands.

We have done a good job explaining this correction before it occurred and have scaled out of long positions to lighten the exposure and even placed a few shorts. However this next step is important. We simply need to know if we are going to get three waves down or five waves down and we won’t know until tomorrow or even the following day, so its important to realise that any trades placed today would be at risk of being stopped out the following day. You can understand why taking part profits is always a good thing.

Quick Tip: Three waves means up side and five waves means more down side.

Trading Quotes
"If you don't get what you want, it's a sign either that you did not seriously want it, or that you tried to bargain over the price." - Rudyard Kipling

“A doctor goes to medical school for four years before practicing medicine; a lawyer goes to law school for three years before beginning the practice of law; why then does a sufficient amount of money with which to trade qualify an unschooled individual to be a trader?”  W.D. Gann

Traders, we would like to inform you that content (Charts) published on FOREX GOLD SP500 OIL will not be updated from Friday July 1st till July 15th 2011. The EarlyBird will do its best to cover these until the 15^th July.

Today's Financial Events
Time     Currency   Detail     Forecast    Previous
  
12th-13th  NZD        REINZ HPI m/m     -1.8%  
9:01am  GBP        BRC Retail Sales Monitor y/y     -2.1%  
9:01am  GBP        RICS House Price Balance    -24% -28%  
9:50am  JPY        Tertiary Industry Activity m/m    0.8% 2.6%  
9:50am  JPY        CGPI y/y    2.4% 2.2%  
11:30am  AUD        NAB Business Confidence     6  
12th-16th  CNY        Foreign Direct Investment ytd/y     23.4%  
Tentative  JPY        Monetary Policy Statement      
Tentative  JPY        Overnight Call Rate    <0.10% <0.10%  
3:30pm  EUR        French CPI m/m    0.1% 0.1%  
4:00pm  EUR        German Final CPI m/m    0.1% 0.1%  
Tentative  JPY        BOJ Press Conference      
5:30pm  GBP        MPC Member Bean Speaks      
All Day  EUR        ECOFIN Meetings      
6:30pm  GBP        CPI y/y    4.5% 4.5%  
6:30pm  GBP        DCLG HPI y/y    -0.2% -0.3%  
6:30pm  GBP        RPI y/y    5.2% 5.2%  
6:30pm  GBP        Trade Balance    -7.3B -7.4B  
6:30pm  GBP        Core CPI y/y    3.4% 3.3%  
7:00pm  GBP        CB Leading Index m/m     0.4%
10:30pm  CAD        Trade Balance    -0.8B -0.9B  
10:30pm  USD        Trade Balance    -44.1B -43.7B  
12:00am  USD        IBD/TIPP Economic Optimism    45.7 44.6  
4:00am  USD        FOMC Meeting Minutes

NOTES:
1. Check the Dividend & Reporting section for your stock on this site before trading
2. Prices may change as this report is written while markets are closing/trading
3. Always think things out for yourself, we are only here to bounce ideas around.

Good Morning & Good Luck!

»TOP

EarlyBird Report – 11 July

Dow Jones Index -0.49% 12,657
US Dollar Index +0.10% 75.08
US August Gold (Globex) 1543
WTI Oil (Globex)   9650
Copper (Globex) 443
US BHP -1.0% 98.84
Base Metals: Softer
AUDUSD 1.0755
EURUSD 1.4260
SPI 4600
ASX200 4654

Traders, we would like to inform you that content (Charts) published on FOREX GOLD SP500 OIL will not be updated from Friday July 1st till July 15th 2011.

US News Wire
U.S. International companies trading in New York closed lower Friday, in line with the broader market, after a disappointing U.S. monthly jobs report caused investors to scale back recent optimism about the economic recovery.

Commodities

US Gold Futures 1544
Five waves up from the last low 1480 (mot complete yet 1556?) then a abc correction back down 1530? Then up.

Oil WTI (Globex Futures) 9650
The reaction is in line with stock and as you would expect a reaction at 100 (TL1)
The volume support is 95 (MinorLevel mTL5) expect a bounce up from this level… after the bounce if the 95 fails to hold then it’s back to 93 and likely 90 (MediumLevel ML9) however as mentioned this market is on edge and will follow stock.

Base Metals

US Spot Prices (24HR in l/b)
US Copper:           Last: 4.36-
US Nickel:             Last: 10.73-
US Zinc:                Last: 1.06-
US Aluminium       Last: 1.12-

Copper (Globex Futures) 440
The current high is the top of a wave three, so expect a wave four down can go as low as 430     

Forex

US Dollar Futures (c) DXY 75.40
From the low of early June 7450 there have been five waves up (impulse) and then over the last week we have seen a correction the abc correction, is the correction complete is the question, there is an abc structure so it can be competed and can now move up from here, that’s is above the 75. However corrections are the weakest link in using Elliott, meaning this abc correction may just pan out to be part of the abc correction. A break to the upside above 75.75 would be just that the trigger to the upside a move under 75 or 7520 is a larger correction opening. The Euro is in the same boat, so the SP500 / Dow will also have meaning in this current situation as it works in harmony with the Euro.

EURUSD
TradingLevels: The Euro has had five waves down from 14572 to roughly 14220 then Thursday and Friday had the abc correction, once the abc is completed we should expect further downside. However the question of whether the abc correction is complete or not is the question.
For the purpose of trading, let’s just assume the abc is completed, if so then the price is currently retesting 143, so allow it to test 143 and if it fails then use the 14272 as resistance to build the first small position in on the short side, with the expectation that 142 will be taken out so you can add to the position
Trade Strategy: Building a longer term short position from under the 144 down under 140, that is if the trend is going in that direction as the larger daily picture is the market in a triangle pattern that can break out either way, we are simply looking at the downside because the bias is down as the price is under 144, if the price was above 144 it would be long, even though the break out point for a long would be above 146. Just as another though for the mix as the Euro follows stocks, is that the Dow is overbought on the daily but oversold on the weekly this would put the Euro to the long side for the medium term. All the markets are at cross roads and we have to be patient for a strong conviction on direction.

AUDUSD 
TradingLevels: Resistance 10772 – 10800, support 107 – 10720/30 The point being here is that the resistance is strong so any upside would be slow through 10772 – 108 therefor any long trades would need these numbers as support. So the faster trades would be to the downside if 10750 forms as the resistance. The 10720/30 is the support and for a move down its also the 618 zone so it will be a strong support. This whole pattern under 108 is corrective and abc a reaction pattern, we cannot confirmed its finished, a move above the last high would 10780+ (SG2) if this does occur we will be looking for support on 108 with the aim of getting to 110. A move now under 107 or 10720 is a larger correction unfolding
Elliott Wave: abc
Trade Strategy: Be on the right side of 10750 for the trade, this may take time to work out but stay with it as the trend will come from this price point

Indices

Dow Jones Futures CFD 12,650
TradingLevels:
Lots to talk about this week, as you know I’m not a big user of indicators, but I did say some time ago I would start using some, I guess I like the Stochastic (George Lane) simply because it can help with the wave count tuning points or the market being oversold or over bought and this is a good time to use it, that is, many markets are currently over bought on the daily charts but are oversold on the weekly charts, meaning short term highs are due and we have seen the first sigh of that on Friday, even if this is not the short term high we still can expect it sooner than later, but the good news is that there is upside for the medium term
 Elliott Wave: The current high is likely a wave three high with the current pullback a wave four as mentioned last week early the wave four is likely to pull back to its 38.2% retracement level or around the 12500 (abc)
Trade Strategy: Short term in the next session look for the 61.8% retracement level up (SG2) it is a retest of 12700 once complete should term down abc.

S&P500 CFDs 1,340
TradingLevels:
Think of the move down on Friday as the Wave a and the current move up the Wave b once complete 1348? Then down for the Wave c

FTSE 100 Futures 6012
TradingLevels: ABC correction across 6000 as a Wave 4
Elliott Wave: The FSTE250 has already made new highs, this FSTE will follow after this Wave 4, wave fours can get complicated, the 38.2% retracement level is 5930, however the fourth wave of one lesser degree is also a good target price point 9572
Trade Strategy: Choppy within SG1 of 6000 - 6030

SPI Futures 4600
TradingLevels: Like the other markets, expecting a abc correction across 4600.
Elliott Wave: The abc pattern unfolding now, the move down is the Wave a, then the Wave b up then the Wave c down. Because we now have five wave up like the Shanghai we can expect an abc correction retracing 61.8% in the case of the SPI that is SG1 of 4500. However because the market is working with 4600 there will be a strong hold to this price and the 4550 may be the lowest, the same with the Shanghai at 2800. Once this is over look for the price to push up
Trade Strategy: Most markets are entering a corrective pattern, unless you understand how to trade through a abc correction its best to observe it and chose your time carefully

Summary

The week ahead won’t be easy, because the price action is corrective.
The US and UK indices are having a wave four correction, whereas the Asian are having a wave two correction and the commodities are also falling into line with this.

As you know we were expecting this correction as nearly all markets are overbought on the daily charts and in most countries the small stocks have help to take their indices to new highs, our key focus was the SP1000, Dow Comp, Dow Transports FSTE250 and locally the AUDUSD, these were and are the key leaders we used to established higher prices will continue in the medium term, it’s just the short term we need to navigate.

BHP in the US has had five small waves up from 90 to 95+ like the Shanghai and the ASX200 (not so clear) because of these five waves up we will see an abc 5-3-5 correction, once this is completed, we can move in long.
Last week we laid of placing long trades out from Wed through to Friday as we were waiting for this abc correction, now we are in this abc correction and it will be our aim this week to understand this abc correction better, so we can position ourselves long.

Regarding new trades today on the ASX, there are two aspects, seeing how the carbon tax impact settles into the market and second the pullback on the Dow.

Trading Quote
Ancient Chinese Believe - Money bags
This year, July has 5 Fridays, 5 Saturdays and 5 Sundays.
This happens once every 823 years.
Based on Chinese Feng Shui.

Traders, we would like to inform you that content (Charts) published on FOREX GOLD SP500 OIL will not be updated from Friday July 1st till July 15th 2011. The EarlyBird will do its best to cover these until the 15^th July.

Today's Financial Events
Time     Currency   Detail     Forecast    Previous
  
9:50am  JPY        M2 Money Stock y/y    2.8% 2.7%  
11:30am  AUD        Home Loans m/m    4.6% 4.8%  
3:00pm  JPY        Household Confidence    35.7 34.2  
4:00pm  JPY        Prelim Machine Tool Orders y/y     34.0%  
4:45pm  EUR        French Industrial Production m/m    0.5% -0.3%  
10:15pm  CAD        Housing Starts    182K 184K  
12:30am  CAD        BOC Business Outlook Survey  

NOTES:
1. Check the Dividend & Reporting section for your stock on this site before trading
2. Prices may change as this report is written while markets are closing/trading
3. Always think things out for yourself, we are only here to bounce ideas around.

Good Morning & Good Luck!
STOCK REPORT

CFD Report Weekly Trades

US Gold Futures 1615
The small pattern sitting on 1610 over the last few sessions is corrective a small abc three swing pattern, therefor the price should push up from here. Remember is the top of subgroup1 (SG1) 1630 finds support then this action psychologically separates itself from 1600 and will become part of the 1650, which is a MediumLevel (65)
In terms of trading its mostly always the same, that is trade from the level 1600 in this case to 1230 exit, wait for support on top of SG1 (retests) then move back in through the micro group1 and trade 1650, in most case the next level is the Midpoint 5, which is the second strongest number after 1.
Silver has retested support on ML4/40.00

CFDs Gold Report- from the EarlyBird

SHARE CFD REPORT

EarlyBird Report – 29 July

Dow Jones Index -0.51% 12,240
US Dollar Index +0.18% 74.23
US August Gold (Globex) 1612
WTI Oil (Globex)   97.38
Copper (Globex) 442
US BHP -0.66% 92.30
Base Metals: positive
AUDUSD 1.0980
EURUSD 1.43
SPI 4418
ASX200 4463

US News
Growing jitters about the U.S. debt ceiling debate just days ahead of the looming Aug. 2 deadline weighed heavily on emerging-market currencies Thursday, while emerging-market debt continued a modest winning streak.

While markets are largely still expecting U.S. policymakers to reach a deal to cut the federal deficit and lift the debt ceiling at the last minute, investors took caution on emerging-market currencies, showing little conviction to place riskier bets.

Commodities

US Gold Futures 1612
The move down in gold appears corrective at this stage but it’s just a little too early to tell, we need to see the market unfold a little further, a corrective pattern down means more upside. A move above 1620 would confirm it as corrective as current there are three waves (abc) down, we just need to see if the three waves turn into five waves (impulse). But just for the mean time expect a move back down below 1600. Support sitting on 1620 can create a trade to 11630.

Oil WTI (Globex Futures) 97.38
The move down from the 100 is now more like the SP500. The move has developed five waves  to the 9650 sublevel, we are move seeing the abc counter trend up then we should see another five waves down to 95. The current rally could come back 61.8% to the 99 but the current 98 does satisfy the actual structure. The main point is there is weakness here, however support on 98 can create a quick trade long and while the price is under 98 look for short trade set ups, the 9720 is one price you should have as resistance

Base Metals

US Spot Prices (24HR in l/b)
US Copper:           Last: 4.44+
US Nickel:             Last: 11.12+
US Zinc:                Last: 1.13+
US Aluminium       Last: 1.17+

Copper (Globex Futures) 445
The aim is to see copper above 450 as support, the current support has lifted over time from 430 to 440 so it should only be a matter of time before we see it above 450, there is still selling pressure at the 450 but the demand is chipping away at it.

Forex

US Dollar Futures (c) DXY 74.38
The US Dollar has five waves up off its low and the Euro has five waves down from its high, both should now see abc counter trends, once these abc three waves structures are completed then these market should continue in the direction of the first five waves .  The abc structure can retrace 61.8% of the initial five waves

EURUSD 1.43

TradingLevels: From the last high around 145, there have been five waves down (impulse wave) this should now see a three wave counter trend, an abc.  The first resistance or rather supply (sellers) is at the SG2 zone 14365 I 14372 I 14380 and this would be seen as a retest of the Fibo/Gann 144 which is also a longer term balance line
Trade Strategy: After the 143 has been tested for support you can scalp the long side using SG1 of 143, but you are moving against the trend, there will be headwinds, sharp pullbacks. If the 143 becomes the resistance then simply look to the short side and use the 14272 SG2 for resistance and triggers, normally it the 72 becomes the resistance use the 65 as the trigger covering at the Midpoint 50

AUDUSD  1.0980

TradingLevels: The norm, with an overshoot pattern, that is when the price arrived at 110, it did not react, it just shot straight on through, so the distance it travelled above the 110, is the distance it is likely to travel back below, that would see the price at 10920 SG1
Elliott Wave: abc wave four pullback across mTL1 / 1.10 is still in play
Trade Strategy: Scalp the sublevels while in a corrective price action. The structure down is still unfolding look for a bounce of SG2 to retest 110 mTL1

Indices

Dow Jones Futures CFD 12,300

TradingLevels:
The price pattern is unfolding an impulse wave down (five waves), we should see the price at 12200 the 61.8% retracement level in the next session. The price is currently working through 12300, after the initial bounce of support it will weaken and the 12300 will become the resistance and the price will drop to 12200 and see another bounce, an abc larger rally before seeing further downside
 Elliott Wave: ABC pull back to 12200 - 12172
Trade Strategy: Down to 12200

S&P500 CFDs 1,302

TradingLevels:
Expecting a move through 1300 to at least 1290 as a wave five, as we are looking at five wave down from the last high around 1350, once these five wave are completed we should see a move up
Trade Strategy: Scalpers, wait until 1300 is the resistance to get to 1290 and perhaps lower to 1280. As you can see there is support in the SG2 zone 1280 I 1272 I 1265 and we are expecting a larger pattern, the Triangle to complete in SG2. The Wave E of the ABCDE Triangle

FTSE 100 Futures 5827

TradingLevels: Work a short trade around the 5800, expect bounce off 5800 then a move down through then the retest of 5800 as resistance.
Elliott Wave: On the daily chart the SP500 and the FSTE have the same pattern that is the large triangle, so the current move down is the Wave E. We are in the Wave E, the Wave E has an ABC pattern, We are in the Wave C and in the Wave C there are five waves, we are in the later stages of those five waves which should complete the large ABCDE Triangle the same as the SP500. Also there is a chance this is not a Triangle, but a larger bearish picture unfolding, but whatever its going to be it will work itself into a corner and we will know when it comes out of that corner, this will be next week
Trade Strategy: Wait for 5800 to lock in as resistance to trade short ranges short, sublevels

SPI Futures 4440

TradingLevels: Expect a move to 4400, then a bounce then down through 4400 to SG2 4380 I 4372 I 4365 then a retest back up to 4400
Elliott Wave: Five wave unfolding down, the low of wave three will on 4400 then a wave four across 4400 then a wave five down to 4372 SG2 area
Trade Strategy: Keep trading ranges within the sublevels while navigating the 4400

Summary

In the big picture for the US and UK, we need to hold two wave counts in mind, one long one short.
The long is considering these indices are in a very large daily Triangle and the Short side is considering the Indices are actually rolling over. We won’t rely on opinions, we wait for the evidence to unfold.

Next week the market will work itself into a corner and when it comes out we will know which one it is and we will trade in that direction. I will do my best to explain this in the video today.
One of the concerns for the market making its mind up in a quick move is the August 2 deadline for the US pollies to agree on a debt package, this is going to be the tricky guessing bit.

Any trading done up to this point of knowing the direction will be short term.

I’m leaving this summary short, because this is the main point we have to prepare for, this will influence Indices and currencies.

One other point, is that the ASX Earning season will be in full swing next week, so check on what’s reporting and research the reviews before trading

Trading Quote
"Markets always go to extremes and so do most individual stocks. They go higher or lower than they should based on fundamentals because human emotions are not bound by reason."

Today's Financial Events
Time     Currency   Detail     Forecast    Previous
  
8:45am  NZD        Building Consents m/m     2.2%  
9:01am  GBP        GfK Consumer Confidence    -26 -25  
9:15am  JPY        Manufacturing PMI     50.7  
9:30am  JPY        Household Spending y/y    -2.2% -1.9%  
9:30am  JPY        Tokyo Core CPI y/y    0.2% 0.1%  
9:30am  JPY        National Core CPI y/y    0.5% 0.6%  
9:30am  JPY        Unemployment Rate    4.6% 4.5%  
9:50am  JPY        Prelim Industrial Production m/m    4.6% 6.2%  
11:30am  AUD        Private Sector Credit m/m    0.4% 0.3%  
3:00pm  JPY        Housing Starts y/y    4.9% 6.4%  
4:00pm  EUR        German Retail Sales m/m    1.6% -2.8%  
4:00pm  GBP        Nationwide HPI m/m    -0.1% 0.0%  
4:45pm  EUR        French Consumer Spending m/m    0.4% -1.5%  
6:30pm  GBP        Net Lending to Individuals m/m    1.3B 1.3B  
6:30pm  GBP        M4 Money Supply m/m    0.3% 0.1%  
6:30pm  GBP        Mortgage Approvals    46K 46K  
7:00pm  EUR        CPI Flash Estimate y/y    2.7% 2.7%  
7:00pm  EUR        Italian Prelim CPI m/m    0.2% 0.1%  
10:30pm  CAD        GDP m/m    0.1% 0.0%  
10:30pm  CAD        RMPI m/m    1.4% -5.2%  
10:30pm  CAD        IPPI m/m    0.4% -0.2%  
10:30pm  USD        Advance GDP q/q    1.6% 1.9%  
10:30pm  USD        Advance GDP Price Index q/q    2.0% 2.0%  
10:30pm  USD        Employment Cost Index q/q    0.5% 0.6%  
11:45pm  USD        Chicago PMI    60.2 61.1  
11:55pm  USD        Revised UoM Consumer Sentiment    64.1 63.8  
11:55pm  USD        Revised UoM Inflation Expectations     3.4%

NOTES:
1. Check the Dividend & Reporting section for your stock on this site before trading
2. Prices may change as this report is written while markets are closing/trading
3. Always think things out for yourself, we are only here to bounce ideas around.

Good Morning & Good Luck!

EarlyBird Report – 28 July

Dow Jones Index -1.59% 12,300
US Dollar Index +0.76% 74.08
US August Gold (Globex) 1613
WTI Oil (Globex)   97.30
Copper (Globex) 442
US BHP -1.53% 92.91
Base Metals: Negative
AUDUSD 1.10
EURUSD 1.4365
SPI 4450
ASX200 4537

US News Wire
Treasury prices slipped Wednesday because of a mediocre five-year note auction and another day of continued political gridlock about raising the debt ceiling.

Yet the selling was partly offset when euro-zone sovereign debt problems resurfaced in the afternoon, spooking some investors into buying Treasurys.

The two-way flows underscore the dilemma confronting global market participants--while the stalemate in Washington puts the value of Treasury bonds in question, there are still few, if any, alternatives that can match the depth and liquidity of the Treasury bond market, which has long been considered the go-to safe-haven for investors during times of risk.

Commodities

US Gold Futures 1613
The price failed to get above 1630 the top of subgroup1 (SG1) The aim is to trade it from 1600 to the top of SG1 exit and then wait to see if support comes in, if not a larger correction at 1600 will unfold. So now is the waiting, a move under 1610 brings it back to 1600.

Oil WTI (Globex Futures) 97.38
Oil follows stock and would see the oil price lower firstly at 9650 and possibly 95, this should also follow the correction in Gold, a three wave ABC correction while US and UK indices complete the Wave E of a Large Triangle

Base Metals

US Spot Prices (24HR in l/b)
US Copper:           Last: 4.40-
US Nickel:             Last: 11.01+
US Zinc:                Last: 1.12+
US Aluminium       Last: 1.17-

Copper (Globex Futures) 442
As mentioned yesterday, the TradingLevels Classic pattern, the arrival (450) the reaction then support, we are still in the reaction looking for support. Other metals such as nickel held up well and with copper we can look for support at the 440 - 338

Forex

US Dollar Futures (c) DXY 74.26
The low of wave three into the 73.50 we were talking of yesterday in now in place and the Wave (iv) up to the wave four of once lesser degree 74.50. The current wave four up should be in three swings, abc, this current move up is the first wave a

EURUSD 1.4365

TradingLevels: While the Euro is above 140 the structure up is positive. We can expect a move down to 14272 then a retest of 144.
Trade Strategy: Consider this move down Wave a of a abc correction, the Wave a low should be around the 14272 SG2 – 143 then a bounce up in three waves for Wave b, 50% of Wave a then the Wave c back down to the Wave a low 14272 area or lower. Once this abc is completed then a push higher

AUDUSD  1.10

TradingLevels: The abc pattern is unfolding across 1.10, expect the price back to 10950
Elliott Wave: abc wave four pullback across mTL1 / 1.10 this is a normal and standard process.
Trade Strategy: Same - Traders with the longer term trade from 106 can start scaling out into 110 and after the abc correction at 110 move back, once the price is supported. Sub and Micro traders trade the levels. But expect corrective price action into the 10972 group2 and the Midpoint 10950 zone

Indices

Dow Jones Futures CFD 12,300

TradingLevels:
Yesterday we talked of a move down to 12300, however looking at the internal structure the current move can move lower, the 61.8% retracement is 12200 a move below the 12100 places the Dow into a more serious top, we need for the other markets to play out, that is the SP500 FSTE Dollar
 Elliott Wave: ABC pull back to 12200 - 12172
Trade Strategy: Same - Under 12500 is at least minimum short term bearish

S&P500 CFDs 1,300

TradingLevels:
Counting five wave down from the 1350 last high, which should see the end of the five waves inSG2 1272 – 1280. The move down last night is the strong third and the low of the third will be the bounce off 1300, the bounce will be the wave four and the wave five down through 1300 to 1280 area. Once this is completed we should see a move up
Trade Strategy: Bounce off 1300 then down through 1300 to complete the large triangle wave E, we will talk about this and the bigger picture in the video

FTSE 100 Futures 5800

TradingLevels: Work a short trade around the 5800, expect bounce off 5800 then a move down through then the retest of 5800 as resistance.
Elliott Wave: On the daily chart the SP500 and the FSTE have the same pattern that is the large triangle, so the current move down is the Wave E
Trade Strategy: Wait for 5800 to lock in as resistance to trade short ranges short, sublevels

SPI Futures 4440

TradingLevels: Under 4500 is bearish, expect a bounce off 4400 then down again
Elliott Wave: We are seeing a larger five waves down from the 4600, the price is well into wave three to 4400 then a wave four bounce and a wave five down
Trade Strategy: Short with a bounce off 4400 then down again for wave five

Summary

The SP500 and the FSTE are moving down to complete a larger Wave E of a Triangle, however we need to talk about this in the video, as mentioned early in the month, we have had these triangle looking patterns before at the 2007 highs, these current patterns in the US and UK Indices are the same looking patterns, so we need to talk about these patterns and where to draw the line and develop trading tactics for long term moves.

The 61.8% for the Dow is at 12200 the current price is 12300, the SP500 is expected to move lower to 1280/72 SG2 after a bounce off 1300.
The ASX200 will move under 4500 and as you know under the 500 be it the Dow under 12500 or the ASX200 under 4500 is a bearish signal, it is also the breaking of the 61.8% retracement level. when working around large levels like 4500, we use and work the first sublevels in this case the SG2 4480 I 4472 I 4465 from a trading point of view if and when the 4472 is retested as resistance, we would use the 4465 as the trigger to short, this is basic strategy and van be view in other ways and refined, the bigger picture once the price has given the 4500 a solid retest and is failing we need to be net short.

As mentioned yesterday in the Day Trading section on the site, hedging was best done with the SPI, simply because the sellers would be there first, stocks had upside momentum that has and will change somewhat today. The point is the price being under 4500 is not a good look for long positions; this is the cutting point, it is better to pay small brokerage than sweating it out watching profits turn into losses. Don’t get caught in the car head lights, be proactive and set orders up in front of the market

Trading Quote
"Every man takes the limits of his own field of vision for the limits of the world."

Today's Financial Events
Time     Currency   Detail     Forecast    Previous
  
7:00am  NZD        Official Cash Rate    2.50% 2.50%  
7:00am  NZD        RBNZ Rate Statement      
9:50am  JPY        Retail Sales y/y    -0.6% -1.3%  
5:55pm  EUR        German Unemployment Change    -16K -8K  
8:00pm  GBP        CBI Realized Sales    2 -2  
10:30pm  USD        Unemployment Claims    412K 418K  
12:00am  USD        Pending Home Sales m/m    -1.0% 8.2%  
12:30am  USD        Natural Gas Storage     60B

NOTES:
1. Check the Dividend & Reporting section for your stock on this site before trading
2. Prices may change as this report is written while markets are closing/trading
3. Always think things out for yourself, we are only here to bounce ideas around.

Good Morning & Good Luck!

EarlyBird Report – 27 July

Dow Jones Index -0.73% 12,501
US Dollar Index -0.79% 73.52
US August Gold (Globex) 1615
WTI Oil (Globex)   99.50
Copper (Globex) 447
US BHP +1.05% 94.84
Base Metals: Positive
AUDUSD 1.0842
EURUSD 1.45
SPI 4520
ASX200 4573

US News Wire
A broadly weaker U.S. dollar amid stalled U.S. debt ceiling negotiations triggered a rally for emerging-market currencies Tuesday, with some Latin American currencies hitting multi-year highs.

Emerging-market debt, meanwhile, saw little change on the day, weakening only slightly against U.S. Treasury’s. The risk premium, or spread, on the J.P. Morgan Emerging Market Bond Index Global widened just by two basis points to 302 basis points over Treasury’s. In price terms, its index rose 0.1%.

U.S. policymakers remain at an impasse in talks to reduce the deficit and in turn raise the debt ceiling limit before the Aug. 2 deadline. Both Moody's Investors Service and Standard & Poor's have placed the U.S. credit rating on review for a potential downgrade. Investors Tuesday fled out of the dollar, sending the euro up more than 1% against the U.S. currency and adding to emerging-market currencies' gains.

Commodities

US Gold Futures 1615
The small pattern sitting on 1610 over the last few sessions is corrective a small abc three swing pattern, therefor the price should push up from here. Remember is the top of subgroup1 (SG1) 1630 finds support then this action psychologically separates itself from 1600 and will become part of the 1650, which is a MediumLevel (65)
In terms of trading its mostly always the same, that is trade from the level 1600 in this case to 1230 exit, wait for support on top of SG1 (retests) then move back in through the micro group1 and trade 1650, in most case the next level is the Midpoint 5, which is the second strongest number after 1.
Silver has retested support on ML4/40.00

Oil WTI (Globex Futures) 9950
As you can see, there is no real change here for Oil, the price is still doing its best to get through the Major TradingLevel TL1 / 100 and will continue to follow stock, it was interesting to see OSH and WPL hold their structures in place for the positive side by not moving down and creating overlapping wave structures, cutting it close to the edge. One thing I did notice that is worth pointing out is that BHP in the US is paused to move higher, ready to move through 95 and take out 100, this is going to be good for the ASX Materials sector and the market in general, I feel our current long positions are set to ride this move, we will get a position in the ASX BHP and RIO

Base Metals

US Spot Prices (24HR in l/b)
US Copper:           Last: 4.51+
US Nickel:             Last: 10.91+
US Zinc:                Last: 1.12+
US Aluminium       Last: 1.17+

Copper (Globex Futures) 447
We didn’t have to go down to 430, this means the base metals are strong, the next step is observing the price create a pattern across 450, we can first look to the TradingLevels classic pattern, its quite simple and worth getting your head around, because understanding a few basic pattern certainly helps with entries and stops. The classic pattern, is the arrive’ at the price level, the reaction, sellers waiting at the price point you can always see them sitting in the market depth, the support, the value buyers moving their orders up from the last low, the first high above the level; the last bit of excitement. Then the correction.

Forex

US Dollar Futures (c) DXY 76.63
The trend is trading lower in line with the wave counts, the 7350 to 7330 would be the low of wave three, there is still a fourth and fifth to go. The low will probably be the US Senate resolving the current political debate around debt. But you would also have to think why would the republicans actually agree at all, especially by not agreeing places then closer to power, so don’t assume it will be resolved, let’s check the patterns closer to the date as there will have a strong fast trade either way, it is a place not to over trade and setting orders up to trap the price is sensible

EURUSD

TradingLevels: There is a few ways to apply the wave count, but the point is they all lead to higher levels, so use the levels to trade, the 145 is next, expect and abc or more complication correction before moving higher
Trade Strategy: Try and understand the wave count on the DXY and apply the opposite here, I will go over this in the video. But expect a wave four across 145, then a push up to 146, the annoying thing is the wave four can actually pull back the 144, it may not but we have to accommodate it, the other aspect is wave four can get ugly, a bit like at the last correction a 144 but technical the next one should be bigger?

AUDUSD 

TradingLevels: You know there will be selling pressure at MinorLevel 1 (mTL1) 1.10 this is also close to the old high. Expect the TradingLevels Classic pattern across mTL1 /1.10
Elliott Wave: The current high is a wave three, that’s is, start the count from 108, wave one is to 10872 zone wave two back near 10820 and wave three all the way up to the current high, so a wave four ready to unfold,
Trade Strategy: Traders with the longer term trade from 106 can start scaling out into 110 and after the abc correction at 110 move back, once the price is supported. Sub and Micro traders trade the levels. But expect corrective price action into the 10972 group2 zone
11:30am  AUD        CPI q/q    0.7% 1.6%  
11:30am  AUD        Trimmed Mean CPI q/q    0.7% 0.9%  

Indices

Dow Jones Futures CFD 12,500

TradingLevels:
Expect a move through 12500 perhaps to 12400/300 then a move back above 12500
 Elliott Wave: The next larger degree of 50 to 618% is 12300
Trade Strategy: Under 12500 is at least minimum short term bearish

S&P500 CFDs 1,330

TradingLevels:
As you can see on our charts the wave 2 pull back is still in play and on the cash SP can move to 1320
Trade Strategy: Wait until wave 2 low is in place and the first small set of five waves (impulse) has started to the upside, another way to view this would wait for a move down to 1320 roughly then a move back above 1320 as support, this test lower then finding support on 1330 is a sign of strength , if this occurs then you have something to work off

FTSE 100 Futures 5920

TradingLevels: Is developing support on 5900 if the price finds support on 5930 then you have the technical catalyst for being long otherwise it will simply drop through 5900
Elliott Wave: You are aware of the larger triangle, but I’m unsure if the last wave E is actually completed, there can be another move down under the last low 5700.. before the triangle is complete, or it can be complete now, so we just have to keep breaking the structure down, first the current move up is only in three waves, that is the move up from 5740, for being long we need to see five waves up, the current pattern sitting on 5900 is likely the wave four, this is why support on 5930 now, is important this is where we can find out what the larger pattern is. And sure the price can go down to 5880 and come back up and find support on 5930, so it’s a waiting game.
Trade Strategy: Wait for 5930 as support to take any long trades

SPI Futures 4450

TradingLevels: Support 4500 The 61.8% is 4472 to 4480 SG2
Elliott Wave: The current pattern down under the 4600 is an abc correction and the 4500 to 4472 is the support zone for the correction to complete
Trade Strategy: A move through SG1 to 4500 and possibly 4480 – 4472, trade sublevels, short trading ranges, scalp until the abc for wave two is completed
11:30am  AUD        CPI q/q    0.7% 1.6%  
11:30am  AUD        Trimmed Mean CPI q/q    0.7% 0.9%  

Summary

Expect the Dow, SP500  and SPI to move lower to complete their current corrections, the SP500 to 1320 the Down to 12300/400 and the SPI 4472/80 this is just a rough guess but these markets are completing their last leg of their corrective patterns, once completed we can expect moves to the upside. These markets may not move as low as this but we need to accommodate this range if they do., we did take a few insurance short trades yesterday to ease and hedge this situation today we will be mainly looking at longs, but I will  look for a short or two also.

The base metals are the support. It does appear US BHP is getting ready to break through the 95, if this is occurs it will be the trigger for the upside

Trading Quote
In the business world, the rear-view mirror is always clearer than the windshield.

Today's Financial Events
Time     Currency   Detail     Forecast    Previous
  
11:00am  NZD        NBNZ Business Confidence     46.5  
11:30am  AUD        CPI q/q    0.7% 1.6%  
11:30am  AUD        Trimmed Mean CPI q/q    0.7% 0.9%  
4:00pm  EUR        German Import Prices m/m    0.0% -0.6%  
All Day  EUR        German Prelim CPI m/m    0.3% 0.1%  
6:00pm  EUR        M3 Money Supply y/y    2.4% 2.4%  
6:00pm  EUR        Private Loans y/y    2.8% 2.7%  
7:30pm  CHF        KOF Economic Barometer    2.13 2.23  
8:00pm  GBP        CBI Industrial Order Expectations    -2 1  
10:30pm  USD        Core Durable Goods Orders m/m    0.5% 0.7%  
10:30pm  USD        Durable Goods Orders m/m    0.4% 2.1%  
12:30am  USD        Crude Oil Inventories     -3.7M  
3:30am  GBP        MPC Member Miles Speaks      
4:00am  USD        Beige Book

NOTES:
1. Check the Dividend & Reporting section for your stock on this site before trading
2. Prices may change as this report is written while markets are closing/trading
3. Always think things out for yourself, we are only here to bounce ideas around.

Good Morning & Good Luck!

EarlyBird Report – 26 July

Dow Jones Index -0.74% 12,586
US Dollar Index -0.24% 74.06
US August Gold (Globex) 1611
WTI Oil (Globex)   99.23
Copper (Globex) 440
US BHP -0.29% 93.86
Base Metals: Mixed to soft
AUDUSD 1.0842
EURUSD 1.4371
SPI 4525
ASX200 4530

US News Wire
U.S. stocks fell Monday, as the deadlock in Washington's debt negotiations left investors uncertain whether the U.S. can avoid a default or a credit downgrade.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average dropped 62 points, or 0.5%, to 12619 in afternoon trading, paring a sizeable morning downdraft that saw the blue-chip index sink as much as 145 points in the first 15 minutes of trading. Debt-ceiling talks between Republicans and Democrats collapsed Friday and showed no progress over the weekend, spurring a flight to safety overnight and in early market action. Worried investors drove gold futures to a new record settlement Monday at $1,612 an ounce.

Commodities

US Gold Futures 1611
The first high above the level is unfolding, once completed a larger correction should unfold.
For the guess work we can use the sublevels SG1 – 1610 I 1620 I 1630, that is, SG1 is likely to contain the price, holding it to the 1600. If the price can find support on top of SG1 1630 then its free to move to 1650, finding support on SG1 is possible, however in trading the levels, the idea is to trade to 1630 and exit, then wait for support, if a good support falls into place then sure move back in and trade to 1650 (MediumLevel) and exit. But the flow is for the price to create a high here just above SG1 then move back to 1600

Oil WTI (Globex Futures) 9923
Interesting, to see stock drop while oil maintain its price, a small sign of strength.
The 100 price point is delivering a strong resistance and being under a level makes any long trade riskier. The OSH and WPL on the local did pull back nearly destroying their small current uptrends, they need to stop in their tracks and head up otherwise they will become short trades WPL 3872 and OSH 656 these price points are about the limit for the downside, If OSH locks under 650 the MediumLevel then it’s a short trade.

Base Metals

US Spot Prices (24HR in l/b)
US Copper:           Last: 4.38=
US Nickel:             Last: 10.76-
US Zinc:                Last: 1.10-
US Aluminium       Last: 1.16+

Copper (Globex Futures) 440
The small pattern over the last few sessions at 440 appears to be corrective, so expect a move down to 430.

Forex

US Dollar Futures (c) DXY 74.26
The sideways pattern over the last few sessions and across the SG1 of 74.00 is corrective and should see a move down through 74 to 7372 or lower. However the 74 obviously has support and will be a tough nut that will show up on the Euro as resistance.
The pattern at SG1 has the look of a wave four, complicated and sideways, the wave five down under 74.00 will be the low of a larger wave three.

EURUSD
TradingLevels: Like the wave four on the US Dollar, the Euro has a wave four at 144.
Trade Strategy: Go long as the price discovers support on 144.

AUDUSD 
TradingLevels: The 10872 SG2 is pegging in a top
Elliott Wave: Wave v of i) now an abc correction, a move under 10830 opens a larger price pattern
Trade Strategy: Short term traders will need to work the support once it’s in place 10850, or SG1 of 108

Indices

Dow Jones Futures CFD 12,600
TradingLevels:
The 12800 and 12772 have experienced the first reaction and the support has come in at 12500, so now we will see the retest of 12772, the 12650 is a more subtle point in play, but support on 12650 is a positive. We should also expect more swings in the 12500 – 12800 range. The move down on the Futures market early Monday morning our time created a gap, so the structure is hard to read, so we will have to wait for more price pattern to unfold. The Euro is firm to the upside so this should help and the FSTE as a guide for the European markets has been in a large triangle since the beginning of the year and is now completing, so we can see new highs over the month head. The only problem for the Dow is that its had lower volume since the 15^th of July to now, I will keep an eye on this to see if selling volume moves in.
Elliott Wave: From the 12800 top we are considering the move down and abc correction the 61.8% is roughly the 12500 so under this level is bearish and we need to be short
Trade Strategy: Under 12500 is bearish

S&P500 CFDs 1,340
TradingLevels: As long as the price stays above the 1320 the trend is positive, this is also the 50-62% retracement level and we can expect to see an abc correction
Trade Strategy: No trading strategy as yet until we can understand the actual correction unfolding, meaning it may be completed already or it may move to 1320 first before moving up, in line with the Euro. If in the next session it can establish support on 1340 then great work from there

FTSE 100 Futures 5840
TradingLevels: Give it time to develop support at 5900
Elliott Wave: I think the pattern at 5900 is a wave four, allow three swings, the second is completed. But the reality is that there are three waves up from the last low, so the current trend up can be corrective. On the daily chart the whole top since Jan appears to be a large Triangle ABCDE that is completed, so this last low can be the end of the Triangle
Trade Strategy: Wait and see if 5900 can become the support this can take another session, if so trade long if not stand aside for the time being

SPI Futures 4450
TradingLevels: Support 4500
Elliott Wave: The move down to 4500 is the 50% retracement level, the 61.8% is 4480 the SG2 zone. The move down from 4600 to 4500 is currently in three waves abc, however it can turn into five waves, with the rally bounce off 4500 as a wave four, this would mean a wave five down to 4472 SG2 area, the a abc bounce. Will chat about this in the video
Trade Strategy: The price can move down to 4500 and 4472 before seeing a abc bounce. If however once the market settles in and you see support build on top of SG1 4530 then trade long. just be careful not to lose money in SG1

Summary

We were expecting a reaction at 12800 for the Dow but not as quickly as it was, which affected many markets, mainly finance. However the current moves down are considered corrective but they are still unfolding and we do need to draw the line in the sand and that is 4500 on the ASX200.
Refining that a little further we can allow for a spike down through 4500 into SG2 4472 zone, but after that we would need the price to stabilise back above 4500 as support, if this does not happen and the price locks under the 4500 as resistance then we need to exit our long positions.
As mention, we understood that there would be a correction, but we can only accommodate so much of a retracement, the finance sector is the hardest hit and they would obviously be the first to go and the first to short.

The SP500 is holding up better than the Dow. The US Dollar is expected lower, meaning the Euro and Indices higher.
The base metals are steady, so there are more positives than negatives. It’s really just about give the current corrections down dome time to play out.

Trading Quote
“When emotions interfere with performance, you’ll often find evidence of inadequate training. Psychological assistance can aid the performance of a well-trained professional, but does not substitute for thorough training.”

Today's Financial Events
Time     Currency   Detail     Forecast    Previous
8:45am  NZD        Trade Balance    404M 605M  
9:50am  JPY        CSPI y/y    -0.9% -0.9%  
10:00am  AUD        CB Leading Index m/m     0.1%  
1:05pm  AUD        RBA Gov Stevens Speaks       
4:00pm  CHF        UBS Consumption Indicator     1.91  
4:00pm  EUR        GfK German Consumer Climate    5.6 5.7  
6:30pm  GBP        Prelim GDP q/q    0.2% 0.5%  
6:30pm  GBP        Index of Services 3m/3m    0.9% 0.9%  
11:00pm  USD        S&P/CS Composite-20 HPI y/y    -4.6% -4.0%  
12:00am  USD        CB Consumer Confidence    58.1 58.5  
12:00am  USD        New Home Sales    321K 319K  
12:00am  USD        Richmond Manufacturing Index    5 3

NOTES:
1. Check the Dividend & Reporting section for your stock on this site before trading
2. Prices may change as this report is written while markets are closing/trading
3. Always think things out for yourself, we are only here to bounce ideas around.

Good Morning & Good Luck!

EarlyBird Report – 25 July

Dow Jones Index -0.34% 12,681
US Dollar Index +0.31% 74.24
US August Gold (Globex) 1590
WTI Oil (Globex)   99.23
Copper (Globex) 440
US BHP -0.71% 94.13
Base Metals: steady
AUDUSD 1.0840
EURUSD 1.4377
SPI 4567
ASX200 4602

US News Wire
The Dow Jones Industrial Average fell 43.25 points, or 0.34%, to 12681.16 and the Standard & Poor's 500-stock index edged up 1.22 points, or 0.09%, to 1345.02. The Nasdaq Composite Index added 24.40 points, or 0.86%, to 2858.83.

The Dow industrials' decline came as most major market indexes around the world finished with gains. Even so, the blue-chip index finished with a strong weekly advance after several days dominated by concerns over debt negotiations in Washington and Brussels. The Dow added 1.6% during the week, and is up 2.2% for July, falling just short of a multiyear high

Initial euphoria over Europe's solution to Greece's debt crisis wore off Friday, sending the euro lower against major currencies as markets questioned whether the fundamental outlook for troubled euro-zone countries had really changed.

On Thursday, European Union leaders reached a comprehensive solution to the Hellenic republic's distressed debt situation, amid fears that Greece's woes could spread to larger European economies such as Spain and Italy. In particular, analysts welcomed plans to expand the scope of the European Financial Stability Facility (EFSF), a funding vehicle that is a linchpin of Europe's efforts to rescue debt-laden countries.
Commodities

US Gold Futures 1588
The abc correction that we tracked unfolding quite neatly, all elements of the abc internal structure were simply and visible.
With the pattern now complete we should see it push higher as indeed it is doing.
We can expect a series of five wave structures upwards of different degrees, in the first small impulse wave is in place.
Trading, using the SG1 1610 I 1620 I 1630 to step up higher of the 1600, the norm is, if the top of SG1 1630 can develop support then the price can get to the Midpoint 1650, however this Midpoint is also the MediumLevel, simply meaning it carries more weight and should expect resistance, it’s 1650, 1720, 1772 and 1800 that are the price points the market will have the most difficulty at and can fail at any of these points.
Just to make things a little more complicated, even though the abc correction is complete, corrections in Elliott are the weakest point, meaning corrections can simply repeat themselves, duplicating, while waiting for other factors to move into place, so this is why the 1630 is a critical step in the process, understanding this allows you to manage risk better, adding and gathering all the little probabilities that produce a positive outcome.

Oil WTI (Globex Futures) 9974
Oil is really trying the get through the front line 100 (TL1) as long as it stays above the first MinorLevel mTL8 / 98.00 the battle is still in play, a retreat to 9650, still has the war in play and a move across this line 9650 will create moves up in stock like OSH abc rally patterns not impulse waves, abc rallies are in three swings up 5-3-5 if this is correct the abc is completed for OSH, what we would like to see is the three wave swing turn into five waves.
The other is WPL we were keeping our fingers crossed for this market to develop support on the MediumLevel ML4 40.00 a move back under 39 and we need to be short, with Oil following stock as a general though, the current high in the Dow 12772 and 12800 will see a reaction as it is, so this reaction dampens the Oil at 100 and the Oil Stocks on the local ASX so we need to be diligent while this unfolds.
One of the hopeful leaders is the Euro, our wave count for this to the upside, if this is correct the US markets will be in harmony with this and therefore the Oil. We will be keeping a close eye on the pull back that OSH and WPL have and what the Euro does in the days ahead, just letting you know where the risk sits technically.

Base Metals

US Spot Prices (24HR in l/b)
US Copper:           Last: 4.38+
US Nickel:             Last: 10.81+
US Zinc:                Last: 1.11+
US Aluminium       Last: 1.14+

Copper (Globex Futures) 440
Following on from Friday, the Copper story can move to 427/8, the line in the sand at the moment is the 440 the pattern sitting on this level is likely to be a wave four, meaning a wave five down into the 430 area.
The Shanghai markets have nearly completed a Motive wave (eight waves, Impulse + abc) That is five waves up from its last lows around the 2610 (2618) the impulse wave is completed and the abc is now in its Wave c once this is completed then this market will push up, the reason I’m mentioning this, is that the Shanghai Copper futures market is growing in size as you can image and has a influence on copper. We also use the Copper market as a guide stick for base metals, which in turn is the ASX Materials sector and so on, the other is the AUDUSD, apart from the AUD carry trade, it’s a commodity dollar.

Forex

US Dollar Futures (c) DXY 74.42
The bounce off 74 and SG1 of 74 is playing out. Its best if we simply observe the bounce rally structure, will it be three waves (abc correction) or five waves (impulse) an abc will see more downside and an Impulse will see more upside.
Currently the move up is three waves, but will it turn into five waves?
A move under 7430 will create the abc and then see further downside.
While the price is above 7430 we can see up side.
The wave count for the Euro is up, so we are expecting the Dollar down, but for trading evidence is what’s required. The Euro back above 144 would also be confirmation.

FX market was mostly consolidating in tight ranges during Asia, which are only corrective waves within larger pattern, which is clearly against the buck. We expect to see further weakness on dollar index, now towards 73.50 that will send other majors higher, such as Euro, Pound, Aud, and Cad. Regarding the Futures market, traders should pay attention to 1354 and then 1367 highs on S&P, where break should be extremely bullish signal for days if not weeks ahead

EURUSD
TradingLevels: The 144 is also a trend line resistance (see hourly chart)
If the price can get back up on 144 as support then find your way in long to 145. The current pattern under the 144 is of primary interest we need to see it as a three wave abc down as it is now and the Dollar is the reverse, if we see five waves down developing in the Euro then we will see either a larger ABC or a top in place.
Trade Strategy: No strategy until the first leg down is completed in either five or three waves, once this is done then we know what we have for the next degree higher in the structure unfolding across 144 level (Fibonacci number)

AUDUSD 
TradingLevels: The pattern in the range of 106 and 108 over the July period is the base for a push higher through 110
Elliott Wave: Looking at the 1 hour Elliott chart you can see the trend is in a wave three up
Trade Strategy: Same -Just hold long with your trading method
11:30am  AUD        PPI q/q    0.6% 1.2%
2:30pm  AUD        RBA Assist Gov Edey Speaks         

Indices

Dow Jones Futures CFD 12,670
TradingLevels: The 12800 is holding firmly as a current high, it has moved up higher in relationship to other indices such as the SP500, the Dow has created five waves from 12300 to 12800 these five waves are a wave five of the larger structure of five wave starting around the 11900 the top at 12800 does satisfy the fives wave up from 11900, so essentially it can be a top, but as mentioned the SP500 has not completed its structure. So the work early next week will be on the Dow’s current sell off that is its internal pattern, as we need to pick up on its golden threat so to speak, I will look into this over the weekend.   
Elliott Wave: Five waves up completed, and abc correction unfolding or a more serious top
Trade Strategy: Nil

S&P500 CFDs 1,344
TradingLevels: The Midpoint 1350 held as resistance and the support is the next level down 1330 top of subgroup1. The pattern currently being created under the 1350 is the focus, expect to see three swings abc then a push higher, it’s likely that the 1340 can hold as support, but depend on that, there is the trend line support that is more likely to hold as support around the 1333/5 area a touching here would be the Wave c of an abc correction
Trade Strategy: Long from 1350 as support or long from the competition of the abc correction, that is one more swing down to 1333/5 trendline support area.
The main trend is up in line with the Euro and the US Dollar down

FTSE 100 Futures 5840
TradingLevels: The 5900 is a balance line in the bigger picture back from Jan 2011 so any support here now is very helpful to any upside storey, as long as the price stay above the 5850/30 area there is hope for the upside, a move back under 5800 in the bigger picture creates a bearish outlook.
Elliott Wave: The short term view is looking at the current structure up from the 18^th July, currently its in three waves (abc corrective) will it turn into five waves? (impulse) five waves would establish the 6100 top taken out and the move to 6500 MediumLevel ML65.
This current move up is very much like the SP500 so keep an eye on the Euro, DXY and SP
Trade Strategy: Just allow the market time to allow the price to settle into 5900 a smaller abc correction, its either that or a top is in place…

SPI Futures 4450
TradingLevels: The SPI and the ASX200 are dealing with 4600 and this simply takes time to goes through the process of profit taking, support and accumulation
Elliott Wave: ABC correction across 4600 then up. The Shanghai market is leading in this structure.
Trade Strategy: The short term is overbought, that is the current trend up from 4450 on the Cash market. The SG2 4565 I 4572 I 4580 is the holding zone and the scalpers need to be on the right side of. Expect a swing down again to the 4565 the 50% retracement is at the Midpoint 4550, so this can be the ABC Wave C low before a push up to 4600 again.
11:30am  AUD        PPI q/q    0.6% 1.2%  

Summary

The Dow is leading the US indices and the European Indices, the Dow’s top at 12800 may turn out to be significant, I say this simply by looking at its own self-contained structure.
However, If I look around at other markets such as the US Dollar moving down, this would allow for more room for the Dow to move higher, in line with the Euro.
The other leading indicator is the AUDUSD, its structure has scope to take out the 110, this would create a double top for the AUDUSD and double tops are never the end of a bull run (Gann)
The Shanghai market is another leader in its own way, this market in terms of pattern is leading the ASX slightly it has had five waves up from its lows (as the ASX200 is doing) and after five waves comes the ABC correction then up again, the Shanghai is completing the Wave C of the ABC correction another small push down early in the week then up, our ASX 200 will have its ABC across 4600 then push up, this would be in line with the AUD, so the AUD, Shanghai and the ASX200 are paused to move higher.

So the Dow is and will have a correction at the 12800 as it is, but the underlying global markets have patterns that suggest higher ground. The US earning season is also a driver for its trend and this should continue to be the catalyst we are looking for, there is of course the US senate compromising on its own debt strategies that can create the optimism that will assist markets.

Our current long ASX trades will pull back as the ASX200 flickers around the 4600 is its abc correction partly being created from the Dow at 12800 (mTL8) a profit taking number and the third strongest number. I am hoping the Shanghai markets Wednesday run up will support the ASX 200 in a general sense, the ASX200 should find support at 4550

Trading Quote
“If the markets have a reality all their own, then the reason so many people fail is because they refuse to find out what that substance truly is and adapt to it. Market reality must be something so completely unpalatable or unacceptable to most people that they would rather fail at trading then embrace it. Of course, that is exactly the case. The true reality of trading and the markets as a whole is something that most people would rather die than accept.”

Today's Financial Events
Time     Currency   Detail     Forecast    Previous
11:30am  AUD        PPI q/q    0.6% 1.2%  
12:30pm  JPY        BOJ Gov Shirakawa Speaks      
2:30pm  AUD        RBA Assist Gov Edey Speaks      
6:30pm  GBP        BBA Mortgage Approvals    31.3K 30.5K  
11:00pm  EUR        Belgium NBB Business Climate    -2.2 -1.1

NOTES:
1. Check the Dividend & Reporting section for your stock on this site before trading
2. Prices may change as this report is written while markets are closing/trading
3. Always think things out for yourself, we are only here to bounce ideas around.

Good Morning & Good Luck!

ASX Dividends ASX Reporting

Company Ex-date Pay date Amount (cents) Type Franking 

Djerriwarrh Investments Limited (DJW) 2 Aug 2011 24 Aug 2011  16.00 Interim 100%  
ETS ALCOA INC (ETSALA) 3 Aug 2011 1 Sep 2011  1.16 Interim 0%  
Westoz Investment Company Limited (WIC) 3 Aug 2011 16 Aug 2011  8.00 Interim 100%  
Singapore Telecommunications (SGT) 4 Aug 2011 26 Aug 2011  N/a Interim 0%  
Coal & Allied Industries Limited (CNA) 8 Aug 2011 26 Aug 2011  120.00 Interim 100%  
Premium Investors Limited (PRV) 8 Aug 2011 9 Sep 2011  3.50 Interim 100%  
eServ Limited (ESV) 10 Aug 2011 23 Aug 2011  12.15 Interim 68%  
Amcil Ltd (AMH) 11 Aug 2011 26 Aug 2011  3.50 Interim 100%  
Brickworks Investment Company (BKI) 11 Aug 2011 31 Aug 2011  4.00 Interim 100%  
Alesco Corporation Limited (ALS) 12 Aug 2011 6 Sep 2011  12.50 Interim 100%  
Australian Foundation Investment Company Limited (AFI) 12 Aug 2011 31 Aug 2011  13.00
Interim 100%  
Merchant House International Limited (MHI) 15 Aug 2011 25 Aug 2011  0.50 Interim 0%  
Korvest Limited (KOV) 19 Aug 2011 8 Sep 2011  15.00 Interim 100%  
Tabcorp Holdings Limited (TAH) 19 Aug 2011 23 Sep 2011  24.00 Interim 0%  
GUD Holdings Limited (GUD) 24 Aug 2011 14 Sep 2011  35.00 Interim 100%  
ANZ CPS2 convertible preference share (ANZPA) 25 Aug 2011 15 Sep 2011  143.30 Interim
100%  
Hire Intelligence International Limited (HII) 25 Aug 2011 28 Sep 2011  1.00 Interim 100%  
Milton Corporation Limited (MLT) 31 Aug 2011 20 Sep 2011  44.00 Interim 100%  
WAM Capital Limited (WAM) 2 Sep 2011 15 Sep 2011  5.00 Interim 100%  
Supply Network Solutions (SNL) 5 Sep 2011 23 Sep 2011  3.00 Interim 100% 
Westpac TPS Trust (WCTPA) 9 Sep 2011 30 Sep 2011  N/a Interim 0%  
Westpac SPS II (WBCPB) 19 Sep 2011 30 Sep 2011  N/a Interim 0%  
Cadence Capital Limited (CDM) 22 Sep 2011 6 Oct 2011  6.00 Interim 100%  
CBA PERLS III (PCAPA) 23 Sep 2011 6 Oct 2011  N/a Interim 0%  
Transpacific Industries Trust (TPAPA) 26 Sep 2011 17 Oct 2011  N/a Interim 100%  
Transpacific Industries Trust (TPAPA) 27 Sep 2011 17 Oct 2011  298.00 Final 100%  
Cedar Woods Properties Limited (CWP) 10 Oct 2011 31 Oct 2011  N/a Interim 0%  
WAM Research Limited (WAX) 10 Oct 2011 21 Oct 2011  3.00 Interim 100%

Reporting
Company Reporting Date Type  

Also Check with the ASX.com.au for every stock your trading,
as this list may not be complete

Transurban Group (TCL) 4 Aug 2011 Full Year  
Coca-Cola Amatil Limited (CCL) 9 Aug 2011 Interim  
Cochlear Limited (COH) 9 Aug 2011 Full Year  
Coffey International Limited (COF) 10 Aug 2011 Full Year  
Stockland (SGP) 10 Aug 2011 Full Year  
Telstra Corporation Limited (TLS) 11 Aug 2011 Full Year  
Bunnings Warehouse Property Trust (BWP) 11 Aug 2011 Full Year  
Imdex Limited (IMD) 15 Aug 2011 Full Year  
Leighton Holdings Limited (LEI) 15 Aug 2011 Full Year  
Newcrest Mining Limited (NCM) 15 Aug 2011 Full Year  
UGL Limited (UGL) 15 Aug 2011 Full Year  
Tabcorp Holdings Limited (TAH) 16 Aug 2011 Full Year  
OneSteel Limited (OST) 16 Aug 2011 Full Year  
CFS Retail Property Trust (CFX) 16 Aug 2011 Full Year  
ConnectEast Group (CEU) 17 Aug 2011 Full Year  
DEXUS Property Group (DXS) 17 Aug 2011 Full Year  
Fletcher Building Limited (FBU) 17 Aug 2011 Full Year  
CSL Limited (CSL) 17 Aug 2011 Full Year  
Woodside Petroleum Limited (WPL) 17 Aug 2011 Interim  
Santos Limited (STO) 18 Aug 2011 Interim  
Adelaide Brighton Limited (ABC) 18 Aug 2011 Interim  
ASX Limited (ASX) 18 Aug 2011 Full Year  
Downer EDI Limited (DOW) 19 Aug 2011 Full Year  
Amcor Limited (AMC) 22 Aug 2011 Full Year  
BlueScope Steel (BSL) 22 Aug 2011 Full Year  
Cedar Woods Properties Limited (CWP) 23 Aug 2011 Full Year  
Mirvac Group (MGR) 23 Aug 2011 Full Year  
Origin Energy (ORG) 23 Aug 2011 Full Year  
Oil Search Limited (OSH) 23 Aug 2011 Interim  
Sonic Healthcare Limited (SHL) 23 Aug 2011 Full Year  
Consolidated Media Holdings (CMJ) 23 Aug 2011 Full Year  
Suncorp Group Limited (SUN) 24 Aug 2011 Full Year  
WorleyParsons Group Limited (WOR) 24 Aug 2011 Full Year  
Toll Holdings Limited (TOL) 25 Aug 2011 Full Year  
Transfield Services Limited (TSE) 25 Aug 2011 Full Year  
Tatts Group Limited (TTS) 25 Aug 2011 Full Year  
Perpetual Limited (PPT) 25 Aug 2011 Full Year  
PaperlinX Ltd (PPX) 25 Aug 2011 Full Year  
Insurance Australia Group Limited (IAG) 25 Aug 2011 Full Year  
Collection House Limited (CLH) 25 Aug 2011 Full Year
AGL Energy (AGK) 25 Aug 2011 Full Year  
Air New Zealand Limited (AIZ) 25 Aug 2011 Full Year  
Aristocrat Leisure Limited (ALL) 25 Aug 2011 Interim  
Lend Lease Group Limited (LLC) 26 Aug 2011 Full Year  
AWE Limited (AWE) 29 Aug 2011 Full Year  
Wasabi Energy Limited (WAS) 30 Aug 2011 Full Year  
Paladin Energy Limited (PDN) 31 Aug 2011 Full Year  
Colorpak Limited (CKL) 31 Aug 2011 Full Year  
Nufarm Ltd (NUF) 27 Sep 2011 Full Year  
Bank Of Queensland Limited (BOQ) 13 Oct 2011 Full Year  
National Australia Bank Limited (NAB) 27 Oct 2011 Full Year  
Westpac Banking Corporation (WBC) 2 Nov 2011 Full Year  
Australia & New Zealand Banking Group Limited (ANZ) 3 Nov 2011 Full Year  
Orica Limited (ORI) 7 Nov 2011 Full Year  
CSR Limited (CSR) 9 Nov 2011 Interim