Code: SPI CFD / ASX200 XJO
Date: 23 February
SPI CFD 4282
Technical Analysis
TradingLevels: MinorLevel (mTL3) 4300 resistance support SG2 4280|4272|4265 plus lower trend line support into SG2. If the price is going to move higher then a move into SG1 4310|4320|4330 should hold the price. in the next degree higher and the future will see the 4300 as the centre as the price vibrates within the SG1 and SG2 range, the upside target would be the next level the Midpoint 4350
Elliott Wave :  Impulse wave structure up
Day Trading: If the price reset before the opening is above 4272 the great, use the 4272 as your support

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Technical Analysis Elliott Wave Usd/Chf
Monday, 20 February 2012 at 10:00:00PM AEST

Elliott Wave Usd/Chf extended losses this morning, and now we see possibility of wave three of three sell-off headed to 0.9060 region, where we have typical 161.8% extensions target for wave three. If pair will fall to that zone, then we will focus on short in minor red wave iv).

This pair is clearly bearish now, and will remain bearish as long as pair remains below 0.9160.

Code: SPI CFD / ASX200 XJO
Date: 21 February
SPI CFD 4266
Technical Analysis
TradingLevels: Resistances 4272 and 4300 expect corrective price action at this levels, however the wave count suggests higher moves
Elliott Wave:  The current move up is in three waves but should turn into five waves
Day Trading: Long is the call, however the SG2 4265|4272|4280 are deep in the supply zone (sellers) so expect corrective action the 4300 being the old high will have profit takers.
I think the better trade will come much later on, what I mean is the current three waves up need to turn into five waves (impulse) then a abc correction ( Impulse + abc = Motive wave) then trade long into a larger wave three.

Eur/Usd 4 Hour Chart
Friday, 17 February 2012 at 6:10:00PM AEST

-wave B) flat complete

Euro found the support just below 1.3020 wave A region, where wave C cleared out the stops as excepted, before market reversed higher. A reversal was just perfect, a clear impulse which its definitely a type of a price action that indicates an uptrend continuation. As such, we believe that wave B) expanded flat in now finished and that wave C) of (2) is now underway, above 1.3320 Feb highs.

Code: SPI CFD / ASX200 XJO
Date: 17 February
Chart 20 Minute Chart
TradingLevels: The 4164 Gap was cover with the 4163 low, the next positive move is developing 4200 as support again.
Elliott Wave:  The current move up overnight is in three waves not five. If a low is in place the next move is developing support on 4200 then SG1 4230. There is a lot of resistance between 4200 and 4300, we will have to wait a while to see what the upside pattern develops into to as we need to see five waves, and impulse structure to confirm a recovery. The corrective pattern down can certainly continue or at minimum further corrective action across 4200, especially if the US indices and the AUDUSD have larger Triangle patterns as mentioned in the video
Day Trading: Work SG1 a retest of 4200 is possible however it may only test 4210. Only the support on 4230 SG1 will create higher ground, you also need to count five waves up from the low and then look for an abc corrective pattern. The current high 4220 is probably the top of wave three

Technical Analysis - The Day Ahead 15 Feb

http://youtu.be/5Buyki8-Sqs You Tube Video

Dow Jones 12,800 -0.57%
Base Metals Negative
US Gold CFD: 1718
Oil WTI: 100.50
US Copper CFD: 380
US Dollar: 79.60
AUDUSD 1.0745
Dow Jones CFD 12,873
S&P500 CFD: 1344
FTSE 100 CFD: 5887
DAX CFD: 6700
SPI CFD 4230

News
U.S. stocks fell Tuesday as investors considered weaker-than-expected retail sales data and watched for progress in Europe over Greece's debt.

US Commodities

US Gold CFD: 1718
TradingLevels: If the SG1 pivot 1720 (72) becomes the resistance, expect 1700 to be reached and if this is the case then a larger bearish corrective pattern is unfolding.
The positive upside is if the 1730 develops as support, this creates the long trade, so in a nut shell the long or short will come from SG1
Elliott Wave: There are a variety of wave counts here, the current February pullback is first being view as a ABC Wave four and as long as the 1700 holds as support then this count is valid.
If the 1700 becomes the resistance we will view the move down as a wave two retracement to the 1650 support.
If your trading then short with 1720 as the retested resistance and stop 1733 with the view of building short, navigating 1710 and 1700 will be a gravel road.

Silver:
TradingLevels: Same - If the current pattern sitting above 33.00 is a Triangle then it should stay above 33.00 (SG1 support) and move higher to 35.00
Elliott Wave: Wave four Triangle 

Oil WTI: 100.50
TradingLevels: The retest is more important than the break out, the price is creating the first high above the level TL1 |100 The Retest Support on 100 creates the long trade for new highs
Elliott Wave: The wave structure from the last low above 95 is impulsive to the upside and once support is found of 100 the price should push higher. Look for long trades on retested support of TL1

Base Metals

US Spot Prices (in l/b)
US Copper:           Last: 3.81+
US Nickel:             Last: 9.17-
US Zinc:                Last: 0.92-
US Aluminium       Last: 0.98-

US Copper CFD: 380
Technical Analysis:
The current wave four is still unfolding, into a larger pattern like the Euro, a deeper corrective pattern. Wave four normally breaks the trend channel so don’t panic, the 380 is the first support but we should expected the 372 to be tested.
Other markets such as US BHP is unfolding across TL8|800 as expected so we should now just wait for support on 80, this support is a good guide for the Materials. We can also bring in the relationship to precious metals, however their wave counts are much the same as the base metals, we don’t have a confirmed retested supported low in place yet, just looking at possible supports

Forex

US Dollar: 79.60
Technical Analysis:
Above 79 is positive, but under the larger levels TL8|80 it’s negative. The price is retesting TL8 in the end if it becomes support it creates the long on the dollar.
Current resistance is SG2 79.65|79.72|79.80 the price will search out support on the Midpoint 79.50.
While the price is not support on 80 we will consider the move up corrective and the move down in the Euro corrective

EURUSD 1.31
TradingLevels: The 130 will be tested
Elliott Wave: The wave count has been reworked, I will explain in the video. Wave B down below 1.30 then Wave C up above 1.33 highs.
Trading Strategies: Scalp the sublevel short. 1.31 retested resistance to 1.30

AUDUSD 1.0745
TradingLevels: The 38.2% retracement for wave four is just below 106. The current low around 10660 is close to trend line support, so expect some support at 10650
Elliott Wave: ABC as Wave 4) because the price is in a B of four, this is the place it gets complicated, so stand aside or scalp the sublevels
Trading Strategies: Same - While the price is in this ABC then trade smaller degree of structure that suit this pattern, that is getting 10, 20, 30 pips trading the SubLevels and MicroLevels.
Long term long trade just wait, we need to see the lows come in, not only for the AU but the Euro and SP500, you can also look at the Aus Bonds, as you know its large overseas funds buying Aus bonds and that’s the catalyst for the rise in the AUD, I don’t think the Gov/RBA will drop rates while they are being drip fed liquidity, they know the global risk.
The current large wave four is corrective, meaning once completed up she goes to 110.

Indices

Dow Jones CFD 12,873
TradingLevels: Testing support 12,800 and 12,772, above these is positive and below negative. Positive is the price can get back above 12,85 as support for day traders
Elliott Wave: The move down over the last two sessions from the 12900 to current lows can be seen as an abc corrective  pattern, if it stays above the 12800/772 if the price drops lower to 12720 this can also still be corrective just a bigger abc wave four. That is the 12900 high on the 9^th being the top then the move down to 12750 the Wave A, the move back up to 12900 on the 13^th Wave B and now the Wave C down to 12720 – 12700 but below this then we have the next degree higher as bearish.
Trading Strategies: Trade sublevels in a corrective pattern

S&P500 CFD: 1344
TradingLevels: The 1350 is not the support , so we have to look lower to 1340
Elliott Wave: The current pattern under 1350 is considered corrective and can move lower, like the Euro and Gold etc we are looking at possible wave counts and support levels, but we are treating all the moves down as corrective
Trading Strategies: Because the 1350 sis not become the support, we are looking at a corrective pattern and therefor will have corrective shorter term corrective pattern swings, so scalp the Microlevels here

FTSE 100 CFD: 5887
TradingLevels: To be long you need retested support on 5900 then scale in through SG1.  While the price is under 5900 we are working out if its bullish corrective or impulse bearish.
Elliott Wave: Unsure, but under 5900 the bias is bearish
Trading Strategies: Put simply you hold long above 5900 and hold short below 5900. You would add long o the top of SG1 5930 as support and add short on 5872 as retested resistance

DAX CFD: 6700
TradingLevels: Trading the sublevels would have you short, if the 6700 becomes the retested resistance add short and expect a bounce off the Midpoint 6650 the target would be the 6600
Elliott Wave:  From the last high 6840 9^th Feb, the move down is either and ABC or and Impulse wave developing, we would have to allow the ABC to play out before we can call the impulse wave, the ABC can move down the 6600 area
Day Trading: Work the 6700 as support or resistance also using SG1 above and SG2 below to build the trade

SPI CFD 4230
Technical Analysis
TradingLevels: The gap at 4165 is a target
Elliott Wave:  All markets are correcting deeper so the SPI will test the 4200 support
Day Trading: The price will be working down into SG1 and when a price moves down into SG1 it bounces around a lot between each sublevel this is not a trading environment, you either set orders up in from of the market to scalp or you take the short and stand back

Summary

The US Retail figures were softer, but that’s not unusual after Christmas.

All the market drivers are moving down, yes this can be a top, however we will treat it firstly as bullish corrective and essentially a wave four, the wave count on the AUD is a fair example of the situation. The AUD, Euro, Gold, Base Metals and Indices etc. will correct lower, but as mentioned we have to treat the moves down as ABC wave four corrective pattern first, if they are going to turn into a larger bearish picture, then we will see the first five waves down and then the three wave counter trend and we ill short more heavily there, the bear market is a possibility as I mentioned each time Greece has been bailed out the markets have dropped a lot.

Trading Quote

Be aggressive in trending market and conservative in choppy market.

Today's Financial Events
Time     Currency   Detail     Forecast    Previous

Wednesday, February 15, 2012

8:45am  NZD        Core Retail Sales q/q    1.1% 2.4%  
8:45am  NZD        Retail Sales q/q    1.3% 2.2%  
9:40am  USD        FOMC Member Lockhart Speaks      
10:30am  AUD        Westpac Consumer Sentiment     2.4%  
11:30am  AUD        New Motor Vehicle Sales m/m     -2.9%  
4:00pm  JPY        BOJ Monthly Report      
5:30pm  EUR        French Prelim GDP q/q    -0.2% 0.3%  
6:00pm  EUR        German Prelim GDP q/q    -0.3% 0.5%  
8:00pm  EUR        Italian Prelim GDP q/q    -0.6% -0.2%   
All Day  EUR        ECOFIN Meetings      
8:30pm  GBP        Claimant Count Change    3.3K 1.2K  
8:30pm  GBP        Unemployment Rate    8.4% 8.4%  
8:30pm  GBP        Average Earnings Index 3m/y    1.8% 1.9%  
9:00pm  CHF        ZEW Economic Expectations     -50.1  
9:00pm  EUR        Flash GDP q/q    -0.4% 0.1%  
9:00pm  EUR        Trade Balance    4.9B 6.1B  
9:30pm  GBP        BOE Gov King Speaks      
9:30pm  GBP        BOE Inflation Report      
12:30am  USD        Empire State Manufacturing Index    14.3 13.5  
1:00am  USD        TIC Long-Term Purchases    62.3B 59.8B  
1:15am  USD        Capacity Utilization Rate    78.6% 78.1%  
1:15am  USD        Industrial Production m/m    0.7% 0.4%  
2:00am  USD        NAHB Housing Market Index    26 25  
2:30am  USD        Crude Oil Inventories     0.3M  
6:00am  USD        FOMC Meeting Minutes

Asian Corporate Calendar / ASX dividends & Reporting: Click HERE»

NOTES:
1. Check the ASX Dividend & Reporting section in the Member area before trading.
2. Prices may change as this Technical Analysis report is written from 3.30 – 6.30AM
3. Always think things out for yourself, we are only here to bounce ideas around.

Good Morning & Good Luck!

CFD Trades  ASX

Technical Analysis Video Reports

Elliott Wave Oil

Elliott Wave  Oil 1 Hour Chart
Tuesday, 14 February 2012 at 6:10:00PM AEST

Oil prices spiked above $100 per barrel, but now showing some weakness. So our outlook for earlier is still unchanged; we favour more gains in this week, while market trades above 97.30, and we think that break through the upper channel resistance line will provide some aggressive buying. But before that wave 2 will move deeper and ideally will find the support around 99.60.

Elliott Wave Oil 4 Hour Chart
Tuesday, 14 February 2012 at 5:45:00PM AEST

-uptrend continuation

Oil is trading nicely higher for few days now, broke successfully the falling channel line, which suggests that market is in a continuation mode. Currently, we suspect that wave 3) is underway, which should accelerate to 103.00 in this week, while market trades above 97.30.

Trading Workshop Perth  24 March 2012

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Elliott Wave AUDUSD  30 Minute Chart
Tuesday, 14 February 2012 at 1:50:00AM AEST

Aussie found the top at the falling trend-line and reversed from 1.0777 intra-day high, where wave (a) appears complete. As such, we will now keep an eye on a wave (b) pull-back that may retrace even to 1.0680 with an a)-b)-c) structure before bulls gets back into action

Code: SPI CFD / ASX200 XJO
Date: 13 February
Chart 4 hour Chart
The move down from 4300 is not completed and the 4200 to 4150 can be tested.
The Day Ahead Report Comments:
SPI CFD 4230
Technical Analysis
TradingLevels: The current low is on trend line support, there is support in the 4200 region. And whilst the 4200 holds then the market is positive. The 4200 as resistance bring the market into the 4000 the MediumLevel support, but the price down at 4000 creates a corrective pattern for further downside. So the 4200 is important, we could see a spike below 4200 to 4150 but the price would need to regain support above the 4200 quickly for the market to remain positive
Elliott Wave:  It’s just one corrective pattern after the next, but what this is tell us is that because it is corrective it will eventually break to the upside
Day Trading: Trendline support on 4230. The price is in Subgroup1 4230|4220|4210 so the price is going to bounce around a lot, even retest 4250 the Midpoint. Be very careful if your day trading in these numbers.

Technical Analysis Report 8 Feb

Dow Jones 12,874 +0.23%
Base Metals steady
US Gold CFD: 1743
Oil WTI: 98.50
US Copper CFD: 386
US Dollar: 78.62
EURUSD 1.3250
AUDUSD 1.0780
Dow Jones CFD 12,870
S&P500 CFD: 1345
FTSE 100 CFD: 5884
DAX CFD: 6753
SPI CFD 4286

News
NEW YORK -(Dow Jones)- U.S. stocks held gains in early afternoon trading, even as Greece delayed action on austerity measures to aid its debt crisis.

Commodities

US Gold CFD: 1743
Technical Analysis:
TradingLevels: It seems the low is in place on the trendline channel and the target area. The move up is positive, the next positive step is a retest of the trend up, this could be a test back to 1730 the top of SG1, or an extension to 1750 then a corrective abc back to 1740. 
Elliott Wave: five waves up from 1750 will see a abc three wave counter trend and then another five waves up. In the slightly bigger picture support on 1750 is the platform for higher prices towards 1800. This correction down in Feb is being considered as a wave four, so this means the wave four can get more complicated, three to five swings under the 1750, so support on the 1750 would clear this problem, also understand silvers wave count.

Silver:
TradingLevels: Support 32.72 / 33.00 is playing out now.
Elliott Wave: The move up in Silver is actually three waves e.g. corrective ABC, that is the bounce off 33.00 is in a clear three wave, a corrective counter trend rally and sure this three waves can turn into five waves. The point is a move stable environment is required before going long

Oil WTI: 98.50
Technical Analysis:
TradingLevels: Oil should move above 99 once it develops support on 98.50 as the volume is lower in the in the corrective pattern,, that is since it toughed 99 
Elliott Wave: An impulse wave is developing

Base Metals

US Spot Prices (in l/b)
US Copper:           Last: 3.84-
US Nickel:             Last: 9.72+
US Zinc:                Last: 0.95-
US Aluminium       Last: 1.00+

US Copper CFD: 386
Technical Analysis:
Not a lot to add here, the wave four is still unfolding and the price is stabilising above SG2 and eventually will test higher into the MediumLevel (ML4) 400 This is supporting all the Materials sectors. Nickel is also in the same line, the UK Nickel will eventually lift to its MediumLevel (ML9) 900 and reacted as this is where the supply is (sellers)
The CRB Index is much the same as the Shanghai market will follow…

Forex

Eur/Usd found the bid towards 1.3200 ahead of the US session, after Reuters reported news that "Greek government is drafting agreement on bailout deal to be put to political leaders for approval later today - government official". This move is not support by the S&P Futures, not even FTSE and DAX which are both down more than 0.5%. In fact, wave count on the S&P suggest that bullish rung from 1300 is coming to an end.

US Dollar: 78.62
Technical Analysis:
The break down will be in five waves, currently in wave three, do the 78 is above right for the target, as mentioned before there is good support at each 50 points so the 78.50 will see support, this would also line up as the wave four corrective pattern and the opposite for the Euro and related pairs

EURUSD 1.3250
TradingLevels: The move still has further upside above 133 however the SG2 13272 zones will also see a smallish corrective pattern
Elliott Wave: That strong move up is counted as wave three, so a wave four and five to come
Trading Strategies: Day traders need to handle the corrective pattern about to come through SG2 13265|13272|13280 the Midpoint will also play a part is all of this. The 13272 (272 much the same strength as 772) so this as support after a correction is a safer bet if you can’t see a clear count.

AUDUSD 1.0780
TradingLevels: The Intraday chart shows a good example of the 108 (8 as profit talking) and SG1 10810|10820|10830 holding the price to 108 the closest largest number and SG2 10765|10772|10780 as support with the 10772 that will pay the most important part in the future development as the price moves through time. The corrective pattern is still unfolding
Elliott Wave: The abc correction is still unfolding, the A and B are completed and the Wave C is starting, the Wave C will be five waves down somewhere into the 10760
CFD Trading Strategies: Once the Wave C down is completed look for a long trade set up

Indices

Dow Jones CFD 12,870
Technical Analysis
TradingLevels: SG2 12872 zone is seeing the corrective pattern
Elliott Wave: The ABC across 12,800 is completed as wave four and wave five up is underway. The question is, is the last move up from 12800 wave on of five waves that will take the price above or to 13,000 or is that move up from 12800 to SG2 the wave five and that is the top.
Trading Strategies: If 12872 finds support then look for a long trade set up. It is however likely to retest the Midpoint 12850 which can also create a short trade with the 12872 as the retested resistance

S&P500 CFD: 1345
TradingLevels: Three swings across 1340 then up to the Midpoint 1350.
 Elliott Wave: The abc three swings completed across 1340 and then wave five up, this is the top of the structure we have been tracking
Trading Strategies: The top of five waves can be in place now, but before shorting we need to see some wave structure evidence and retesting supply and to go long would require an corrective pattern at the Midpoint 1350 and then support to build the trade, so neither of these set ups are in place so wait or scalp the MicroLevels

FTSE 100 CFD: 5884
TradingLevels: Support SG2 5872|5880
Elliott Wave: ABC below 5900 is completed, so a new high is expected, this is lagging the US indices
Trading Strategies: Stops at 5863 under SG2 if you’re going long

DAX CFD: 6753
TradingLevels: Supports 6720, 6750 Resistances SG2  6765|6772|6780
Elliott Wave:  New highs expected, following the US indices as they have made new highs
Day Trading: Look for long trade set ups

SPI CFD 4286
Technical Analysis
TradingLevels: Keeping it simple, resistance 4300 and support 4272 SG2
Elliott Wave:  The wave structure under 4300 is corrective, I will give it credits to the upside based on the moves to the upside as impulse waves and not corrective waves, but there is a lot of resistance at the 4300, the Shanghai is also struggling as pointed out yesterday. The Dow being up will be helpful today
Day Trading If you going long then stops need to be under 4272
BHP Billiton Limited (BHP.AU)  Interim 2012 Results

Summary

US Indices A five wave structure up is close to ending

Europe The Greeks are organising the final details for the loan agreement, US indices move higher FSTE and DAX lag not making new highs, but are expect too. However they too like the US indices are completing a five wave structure, so some kind of top is forming now.

China  Shanghai Struggles at 2300 and the pattern is not a healthy impulse wave up, the move up from the lows is looking more like a corrective rally, the base metals are supporting the ASX but the Materials sector XMJ will corrected at 12,000

Australia As mention yesterday the support above 4300 may not come until Friday, sure we can see a lift today and lower tomorrow, but he pattern on the Shanghai is a concern and the US and European Indices are completing at larger five wave structure so a top is pending. We should lock in more profits on long positions and any new position should have tighter profit targets. If the bullish weekly cycle here in Australia pans out over Wed and Thursday then the buying could start Thursday arvo and Friday morning, any way let’s see what pans out between now and then, just wanted to put this on the table

Trading Quote
something that I’ve learned to do that I think is invaluable. You see, I try never to let a trade get to me to the point that I’m anxious about it. I’m not a master of my anxiety, so once I feel myself coming to that point that alone is reason enough to get out of the trade. Once I begin to worry about it, I might better be out of it. There’s no way to recoup my losses by keeping this trade.

Today's Financial Events
Time     Currency   Detail     Forecast    Previous

Wednesday, February 8, 2012

10:30am  AUD        Westpac Consumer Sentiment     2.4%  
10:50am  JPY        Bank Lending y/y     0.4%  
10:50am  JPY        Current Account    0.63T 0.48T  
11:01am  GBP        BRC Shop Price Index y/y     1.7%  
4:00pm  JPY        Economy Watchers Sentiment    47.6 47.0  
5:45pm  CHF        Unemployment Rate    3.1% 3.1%  
6:00pm  EUR        German Trade Balance    14.1B 15.1B  
6:45pm  EUR        French Gov Budget Balance     -97.2B  
12:15am  CAD        Housing Starts    192K 200K  
2:30am  USD        Crude Oil Inventories     4.2M

Australian Corporate Calendar

Ansell Ltd (ANN.AU)   Interim 2012 Results
Australand Property Group (ALZ.AU)     Full year 2011 Results
BHP Billiton Limited (BHP.AU)  Interim 2012 Results
BHP Billiton Limited  (BHP.AU)  Interim 2012 Webcast
Discovery Metals (DML.AU)*     Interim 2012 Results


NOTES:
1. Check the ASX Dividend & Reporting section in the Member area before trading.
2. Prices may change as this Technical Analysis report is written from 3.30 – 6.30AM
3. Always think things out for yourself, we are only here to bounce ideas around.

Good Morning & Good Luck!