22 May
Technical Analysis Report Weekly
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BHP Billiton Limited: ASX:BHP
Date: 20 May 2013
Chart: Daily Chart
Technical Analysis
TradingLevels: Important levels for the upside are 35 and 36.50 and the downside as 34.00 and 33.00 supports
Elliott Wave: The wave structure up off the last low 30.58 is developing into an impulse wave. This five wave structure is not completed as yet, but once it’s completed we can expect an abc counter trend retracement and then another five waves up.
The current five waves up could complete in the 35.50 – 36.50 range with the abc retracement back into 35 – 34 range. With the next move up towards 38.00
Trading Strategy: In the Day Ahead report it was mentioned to buy the bounce between 31 and 32. The next buying can be on the abc retracement once the five waves are completed, or you can buy and hold through the corrective abc correction it just develops what your plan is.
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Market Drivers
Dow Jones 15,387 +0.34%
SP500 1,669 +0.17%
NASDAQ 3,026 +0.18%
FSTE 6,806 +0.71%
Base Metals Negative
US Spot Gold 1374
US Spot Silver 2244
Oil WTI CFD 96.10
US Copper CFD 333
US Dollar CFD 83.94
EURUSD 1.2903
AUDUSD 0.9810
DJI CFD 15,376
S&P500 CFD 1667
FTSE 100 CFD 6800
DAX CFD 8455
Shanghai Comp 2300
ASX 200 CFD 5180
Market Analysis Summary
Global indices Are Displaying A Short Term High
Euro and AUD corrective rally will mature in the next trading session
Commodities – Precious metals, the corrective rally that started in the last session is two thirds completed
Forex – The corrective rally in the Euro and AUD are also two thirds completed and we will look to short within the next two sessions as the USD develops a tested volume support
Indices – The S&P500 is at our target resistance 1672 and move below 1665 would see a lower move to next support 1650
Stocks – Long US banks.
Commodities
US Spot Gold CFD 1374
TradingLevels 1400 resistance as the wave four corrective rally. Short term; while the market is above SG2 1365|1372|1380 its support with a target at 1400 again
Elliott Wave: An abc as Wave (iv). The Wave a is completed to 1400 and the Wave b is underway lower, the normal retracement for Wave b is 61.8% of Wave a, that is 1360. This should be followed by Wave c higher in five waves to 1400 or just above.
Strategy: Short term while 1372 is the support then trade long towards 1400. The short trade is too short Wave c, that is, after five waves up from 1360 to approximatley1400.
If there is an error in the wave count, then if the 1365 the lower level within SG2 becomes the tested resistance then look to short. Expect a bounce off the midpoint 1350 back to 1360 and when the 1350 becomes the tested resistance then add to positions and expect another bounce at 1330 back to 1340 before the market works into SG1 of 1300
US Spot Silver CFD 2244
Technical Analysis: In a nut shell we are expecting a move to 2500 and then a move down through 2000. Minor Group1 is 2100|2200|2300. Support on top of Group1 2300 creates the MediumLevel ML25|2500 as the target. The pivot within Group2 the 2200 as resistance delivers a bearish bias. That said, use the same wave count as gold, this is an abc Wave (iv) rally, the market is now in Wave b. The short trade set-up is not in place as yet but would be close at the end of the next session as the completion of Wave c of (iv)
Oil WTI CFD 96.10
Technical Analysis: Under 95.00 creates bearish outlook.
The daily trend line resistance cutting into 9700 is holding well.
The 9650 as resistance also adds another sublevel degree of bearishness, followed by 96.00 as tested resistance, which would offer a short trade to 95.00. The mTL5|95.00 is the support that keeps the bullish picture in form. So the 95.00 as resistance would see the market at 93.00
Base Metals – US Spot Prices (in l/b)
US Copper: Last: 3.30-
US Nickel: Last: 6.78-
US Zinc: Last: 0.8129-
US Aluminium Last: 0.8181-
US Copper CFD 333
While the market is above 330 – 328 it’s supported.
The 328 as tested resistance creates a bearish mode to 320. This would reflect back to the materials sector driven by the likes of BHP…which we are expecting a top of the current impulse wave in AU BHP just above 35 followed by an abc Elliott retracement lower early next week.
Forex
US Dollar CFD 83.94
TradingLevels: The corrective pattern I was expecting at 85 is occurring at 8450, which makes the 8350 and 8330 the new supports and should be tested in the next session.
Elliott Wave: Wave (iv) retracement, the 38.2% target is 83.45 is still unfolding as is the Euro in reverse. Wave four tend to be more sideways and complicate patterns rather than clean and simple. So be more patience when entering wave fours, let the pattern mature, don’t be quick to judge.
EURUSD 1.2903
TradingLevels: While the market is above 1.2872 it’s supported, below this it’s in bearish mode. The current move up is a retest of supply at 130 the minorlevel
Elliott Wave: The abc as Wave (iv) is maturing now that its touched on its retracement level 12930 however it’s not confirmed as competed, there can be another wave up above the 12930 to complete five waves for the wave c.
Trading Strategies: Intraday, support on 12905 creates a long trade to 1.2930 as Wave 5) of c of (iv).
Once Wave (iv) is completed above 12930 – 12950 look for a short trade set up, that is an impulse wave lower (five waves) then the abc retracement, using a tradinglevel to work the trade from.
AUDUSD 0.9810
TradingLevels: The rally upwards is slightly sluggish and therefore the 1.00 retest maybe out of reach. If and when the market develops the 98 as support then look for a move to 99 or close to it at 9850 – 9872. The copper market is also looking slightly softer a move under 330 for US copper may show up here in the AUD. Tracking the Elliott wave count is important here in this rally.
Elliott Wave: Wave (iv) rally the 38.2% retracement 9945. The Wave (iv) is being viewed as and abc, the Wave a and b could be completed now with Wave c up to follow, the Wave c will have five smaller waves.
Trading Strategies: If you have been long with stops under 9750, then lift stops when 9730 becomes the tested support to 9796. When the midpoint 9750 becomes the support lift stops to 9816. Look to take profits into 9850 area. If the wave c upwards is an error the short trade is when the 9772 becomes the tested resistance with the new of adding to the short trade when the midpoint 9750 becomes the resistance
Indices
DJI CFD 15,376
TradingLevels: A move below 15,300 – 15,272 is weakness. A move below 15,200 would see a larger move down to 15,000.
Elliott Wave: We are counting five waves up from the 14,500 area to the current highs and there is reason to call a top of the five waves in place here.
That said we would need to see the 15,300 becomes the resistance. While the market is above 15,300 its supported
Trading Strategies: Allow the market time to corrective back into 15,300 – 15,272 zone
S&P500 CFD 1667
TradingLevels: While the market is in SG2 1665|1672|1680 it’s supported. If the market drops out of SG2 then expect the market back at 1650 the Mediumlevel
Elliott Wave: Wave v of (iii) at 1672
Trading Strategies: The same as last session, tested support on 1672 creates the long trade if not hold short.
FTSE 100 CFD 6746
TradingLevels: Looking for a small new high above the 6800 and then a abc corrective pattern across and below 6800 (MinorLevel mTL8 Profit taking number)
Elliott Wave: Expecting a correction across 6800
DAX CFD 8455
TradingLevels: Next correction at 8500
Shanghai Comp 2300
Same - Expect a corrective pattern across 2300 then support then further upside
ASX 200 CFD 5180
TradingLevels: Below 5200 is a bearish bias and this market is still in the corrective pattern. If the SP500 has a top in play at 1672 then expect further weakness here.
Elliott Wave: Wave c of (iv) in five wave lower from the last high 5250 down to 5150 - 5130
Day Trading Strategy: The 5172 as tested resistance for short trades to 5150. Wednesday can be down in the morning and up in the afternoon session.
Quote
"Victorious warriors win first and then go to war, defeated warriors first go to war and then seek to win."
– Sun-Tzu ~400 BC
Today's Financial Events
Australian Time AEST
9:50am JPY Trade Balance
10:30am AUD Westpac Consumer Sentiment
Tentative JPY Monetary Policy Statement
Tentative JPY BOJ Press Conference
6:00pm EUR Current Account
6:30pm GBP MPC Meeting Minutes
GBP Retail Sales m/m
GBP Public Sector Net Borrowing
Tentative EUR German 10-y Bond Auction
All Day EUR EU Economic Summit
8:00pm CHF SNB Chairman Jordan Speaks
GBP CBI Industrial Order Expectations
10:30pm CAD Core Retail Sales m/m
CAD Retail Sales m/m
12:00am USD Existing Home Sales
USD Fed Chairman Bernanke Testifies
USD Treasury Sec Lew Speaks
12:30am USD Crude Oil Inventories
4:00am USD FOMC Meeting Minutes
NOTES: Prices may change as this Technical Analysis report is written from 3.30 - 6.30AM
Always think things out for yourself, we are only here to bounce ideas around
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