Technical Analysis Report Weekly
 

01  Robo Update» 
02  Today's DayAhead Technical Analysis Report 6 March 2012»
03  Forex: USDCHF – Latest Elliott Wave»
04  Charting & Accounting programs AND Trades & Education!»

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01 Robo Update 

This week we give you an update of our Robo trades placed over the last week or so. While some have closed, most are still open. PLease feel free to contact us if you have questions about these.

NOTES ON TRADE	CODE	DATE	DIRECTION	ENTRY	STOP	TARGET	CLOSED
	AMC	5-Mar	LONG	7.04	6.87	33% 7.20
	KAR	5-Mar	LONG	6.07	5.96	33% 6.30
Trend Trade	RMD	5-Mar	LONG	2.79	2.73	33% 2.86
Trend Trade	TEL	2-Mar	LONG	1.68	1.63	33% 1.73
Trend Trade	LLC	2-Mar	LONG	7.56	7.33	OEPN
Breakout Pattern	GUD	2-Mar	LONG	7.45	7.47	33% 7.80	33% 7.50/60
Trend Trade	AIX	2-Mar	LONG	2.07	2.07	33% 2.20
	EGP	2-Mar	LONG	4.31	4.23	33% 3.40
Trend Trade	FBU	2-Mar	LONG	5.15	5.13	33% 5.40	33% 5.25
Trend Trade	MCE	2-Mar	LONG	3.37	3.17	33% 3.50
Keeping stop	UGL	1-Mar	SHORT	12.25	12.53	33% 11.80
Lock in some profit	JBH	1-Mar	SHORT	11.35	11.13	33% 10.80	33% 11.00
Tighter Stop	PXS	28-Feb	LONG	1.01	0.99
Trend Trade	PTM	24-Feb	LONG	3.71	3.63	33.% 3.86
	ACR	24-Feb	LONG	3.39	3.67	33% 3.90	33% 3.80
Wide Stop	ALL	23-Feb	LONG	2.52	2.67	OPEN	33% 2.90
	ALS	21-Feb	LONG	1.36	1.31	100% 1.50
	CTX	20-Feb	LONG	12.87	13.47	33% 14.00	33% 13.20

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02  Today's DayAhead Technical Analysis Report – 6 March

Market Drivers

Dow Jones 12,944 -0.26% (6AM)
Base Metals Softer
US Gold CFD: 1705
Oil WTI: 106
US Copper CFD: 390
US Dollar: 79.30
EURUSD 1.3220
AUDUSD 1.0730
Dow Jones CFD 12,930
S&P500 CFD: 1361
FTSE 100 CFD: 5878
DAX CFD: 6858
SPI CFD 4262

News
US stocks bounced back in early afternoon trading from session lows earlier Monday, but remained in the red amid concerns about slowing global economic growth.

The market took its cues from downbeat economic news out of China and Europe. In China, Premier Wen Jiabao said the 2012 target for economic growth would be 7.5%, down from the 8% target that had been in place for eight years. And in Europe, a reading on business activity contracted more than expected in February.

In addition, there were concerns that the participation rate of Greece's private creditors in the voluntary debt restructuring deal needed for Greece to receive bailout funds will be too low, which in effect could trigger a default.

US Commodities 

US Gold CFD: 1705
Technical Analysis:
TradingLevels: While the 1700 is support the price is trapped in SG1 and is likely to stay in this range to complete the Elliott Wave B) before moving down to 1650 to complete the larger correction, but don’t be surprised if the price drops straight down to 1650. The resistance is the 1720. The Trading Strategy is to wait for the ABC correction to 1650 the MediumLevel to complete before looking for long trade set ups.
Elliott Wave*: Gold is very slow after a bottom at 1685 established in the past week, from where we believe that larger red wave B) is unfolding, which potentially may hit 1740-50 area this week. Current sub-wave (c) of B will look for a support around 1700.
*See Elliott Wave education

Silver 
TradingLevels*: Volume support 33.00, the price is still heading down towards the this support, silver is moving quicker than gold. The 34 will offer a support and bounce, but it shouldn’t be the low.
Elliott Wave: The 33 target is only the 38.2% retracement level this is normally where the Wave A would bounce from. The 61.8% for a Wave (2) is back at 30 TL3. However lets just take one step at a time and see how the support at 33 holds up and the type of pattern it would have created to that point.. Precious metals have a good history of working to the 50% so that would place the price at 3 *See TradingLevels article

Oil WTI: 106
TradingLevels: Oil can be counted two ways, so while Oil is above 105 it has the chance of being positive but under 105 and its negative.
Elliott Wave: Two counts, the move down from the high above 110 is either Wave 1 or Wave C of the ABC correction for Wave 4, this is why a move under 105 creates the larger impulse wave down. I will explain this in the video. It is however moving in the same pattern down as the Euro and now the Indices like the Dow is testing 12900 so the Wave 3 high for the Dow can be forming.

Base Metals 

US Spot Prices (in l/b)
US Copper:           Last: 3.85-
US Nickel:             Last: 8.65-
US Zinc:                Last: 0.93-
US Aluminium       Last: 1.01-

US Copper CFD: 390
Technical Analysis: US BHP breaks under 75 this is a sign of weakness, copper is still supported above 380 and 372 so it has its supports still in place, a break under these levels is weakness and would impact on global material sectors. The saving grace here of course are the Chinese markets, China has its own Copper Futures market also, it must be a year old now but I’m not sure on volumes. China however has cut growth to 7.5% and is looking internally into the country to maintain manufacturing growth. The warehouse supplies at the LME they appear to be lower which would assist the support at 380 on Comex. Technically the 380 will be tested but if it becomes the resistance then the market is in the first target of being negative and then the 372* is the line in the sand for being short  *See TradingLevels article

Forex 

USD is rising across the board, especially against the commodity currencies which are now trading finally with commodities again. We believe that this trend will continue in this week, as we expect more weakness on gold, silver and crude oil. This of-course is supportive for the USD, so we will pay a very close attention to potential USD Long opportunities. For now, focus will be on primary Euro count; shorts after wave (iv) pull-back as discussed lower.
We are also still waiting on some bearish pressure on S&P500, through 1350/54 support that will lock the wave 3 highs.

Forex US Dollar: 79.30
Technical Analysis: The 38.2% retracement is 79.20 basically SG1 of 79.
If we are to label the Euro Wave 1 down complete around the 13160 then we have a wave 1 top here in the Dollar and the wave 2 retracement would be lower into the 79 to 78.72 SG2.
But I can also point out the as above the retracement may only move to 79.20 roughly. The main point is to follow and understand the corrective Zigzag pattern of the correction and once completed then look for the pattern set up for the long trade.

EURUSD 1.3220
TradingLevels: 132 is changing back to support for Wave 2 rally
Elliott Wave: Wave 1 completed and Wave 2 is now underway the 50-62% retracement is around the 13350 but as you know the Euro can have low retracements so the 133 or even the 13272 could be it, these numbers are resistance anyway, so be a little careful not to jump the gun.
Trading Strategies: Once the ABC for Wave 2 is completed look to build a short position.
Short term, you need the top of SG1 13230 as support to be long, while the price is trapped in SG1 it can move back under 132.

Forex AUDUSD  1.0730
TradingLevels*: Trading the sublevels until the Wave i) low is in place towards the 106
Elliott Wave: On Aussie we can see lower lows and lower highs formation on the intra-day basis, which means that this pair is currently bearish, within a third leg of decline from 1.0855 top. Well, because of more important top on the daily chart, we suspect that current leg from 1.0814 is a red wave i), part of a larger impulsive wave (iii). So if that’s the case, then this pair should be very interesting for further selling after a red wave ii) pull-back into 1.0730/40 range.
Trading Strategies: If you have been short then start covering into 10650 and 10630 While the 10672 is the resistance you can go for the lower targets, there is trend line support just below 106. Essentially there are five waves down to the 10650.. area so would expect a ABC rally
2:30pm  AUD        Cash Rate    4.25% 4.25   *See TradingLevels article

Indices 

Dow Jones CFD  12,930
Technical Analysis
TradingLevels: TheWhile the 12,900 is support we can’t call in the top of Wave 3
Elliott Wave: Below 12900 and Wave 4 is unfolding 
Trading Strategies: While the price is in the corrective range 12900 to 13000 you can only really trade the sublevels, from one to the next and exit. We don’t have a trend yet.

S&P500 CFD: 1361
TradingLevels: Below SG2 365 the price is negative, meaning the bias is down rather than up
Elliott Wave: There is not enough evidence to call the top of Wave 3 in yet but it is moving in towards that bias as currencies lead the way 
Trading Strategies: Short the next failed retest of 365

FTSE 100 CFD: 5878
TradingLevels: While the price is below the 5900 the bias is negative, but like the SP500 and Dow we can’t call in the top of Wave 3 here either, there is simply not enough evidence but it’s certainly leaning in that direction, so failed retests can be shorted
Elliott Wave: It is still unclear if the price is toping here or just a bullish correction, its neighbour the Dax has solid support at 6800 so while that is support we still have to consider this pattern at 5900 on the FSTE possibly a small bullish corrective pattern, but unless it has good support on 5900 or 5930 there can’t be any long trades
Trading Strategies: Just give the price time to work the 5900 as support or resistance the SG1 above 5900 and the SG2 below are important once the 5900 has been retested twice

DAX CFD: 6858
TradingLevels: We are seeing this market topping but there is no proof that a top is in place, this market can move higher after this downwards correction in 6800 – 6750 as Wave c) of (iv) then a move to 7000 as Wave (v) of 3 then Wave 4 I will explain the count in the video, it is a little different from the other indices but that’s of as the Wave 3 for the other indices is not confirmed so we have to explore all possibilities
Day Trading: There is support as the price moves into 6800 

SPI CFD 4262
TradingLevels: Now that support has been broken we have to look at the 4200, we can expect the price to bounce into SG1 4230|4220|4210 the is also the 61.8% retracement level
Elliott Wave:  If the 4235 low is taken out then 4200 is the next support
Day Trading: Look to short failed retests of 4250 or 4240 expect the price to bounce off 4230 and 4220, there is also a gap around the 4210 that would be the target.re 

Summary

US and European Indices, the price pattern has not developed enough to call in the top of Wave 3, the move down so far can be bullish corrective, The 12,900 is one of the support lines we have been working with and that is still the support, the wave structure for the US and European Indices have not as yet displayed a clear impulse wave down.
Currencies appear to be leading the way down with their impulse waves, in the next session should have their counter trend rallies, but the bearishness is being led from these markets or rather the appearance is as most markets are connected in one way or another.
Precious and base metals are still under pressure and will see low ground; this obviously places pressure on the Materials sector, so you can expect softness to be the picture for resources.

Trading Quote

The price pattern reminds you that every movement of importance is but a repetition of similar price movements, that just as soon as you can familiarize yourself with the actions of the past, you will be able to anticipate and act correctly and profitably upon forthcoming movements.

Today's Financial Events

Time        Currency   Detail                                         Forecast    Previous

11:30am   AUD           Current Account                        -7.9B           -5.6B   
12:30pm  JPY             Average Cash Earnings y/y       -0.3%           0.1%   
2:30pm    AUD            Cash Rate                                 4.25%           4.25%   
2:30pm    AUD            RBA Rate Statement       
9:00pm    EUR            Revised GDP q/q                      -0.3%            -0.3%   
2:00am    CAD            Ivey PMI                                    62.2              64.1

NOTES:
1. Check the ASX Dividend & Reporting section in the Member area before trading.
2. Prices may change as this Technical Analysis report is written from 3.30 – 6.30AM
3. Always think things out for yourself, we are only here to bounce ideas around.1

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03 Forex: USDCHF – Latest Elliott Wave

The official SNB exchange rate for EUR/CHF is 1.2060 today; yield on 10-year Swiss Confederation bonds decreased to 0.68%. 3-month LIBOR CHF stands at 0.09%, and is within the target range of 0.00-0.25%. Swiss SMI stock index has gained 0.06% since the opening bell, and is currently fluctuating around 6153 points.

USDCHF 1 Hour Chart
Tuesday, 6 March 2012 at 2:40:00AM AEST 

Looks like USDCHF is also in a pull-back mode, headed ideally to 0.9025&50 range, where a three wave fall should find the base; fourth wave triangle plus 50-61.8% retracement.

USDCHF 4 Hour Chart
Monday, 5 march 2012 at 5:25:00PM AEST – recovery mode

USDCHF reversed sharply higher at the end of the past week, and moved deeply into a territory of a black wave 1 which means that our count with a completed five waves of decline from 0.9300 is confirmed. As such, we will now be looking for even more upside in days ahead. Minimum expectations are three waves up from 0.8930. Currently, wave A)/1) still in process. 

USDCHF Daily Chart
4 March 2012 – wave C) of wave II flat done!? 

USDCHF reversed impulsively higher in this past week, so obviously we have a temporary low in place at 0.892. Notice that we now also have a completed five waves from 0.9600 top, which means that current low could actually be low of wave (C) of wave II running flat formation. If that interpretation is correct, then strong bulls will follow in weeks ahead. But for now, we think its still too soon for any significant call of a larger USD rally, so lets stay with minimum expectations; only three waves up from 0.892 to 0.9300.

USDCHF Weekly Chart
28 August 2011 – significant low in place!?

USDCHF made a very sharp reversal in this month from 0.7067 region, where we suspect that bottom-at least temporary has been reached. The first reason is of course the wave structure, which is impulsive on the lower time frame, and the next quite important evidence for a complete bearish cycle from 1.1733 is a very high volume that was seen when prices fell into a new all-time low, just before they bounced higher.

We also need to consider that there was a triangle placed in wave IV) as shown on the chart. Well, in Elliott Wave theory triangle occurs just prior to the final move of the larger pattern, so from that perspective, we know that leg from 1.1733 was a wave five. With this being said, pair may reach much higher levels in coming months if not years!

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