5 June
Technical Analysis Report Weekly
Hi Traders
TECHNICAL ANALYSIS SUMMARY: All Eyes on the Dollar
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Support is moving into the markets as the US Dollar pulls back. However the support in Indices, currencies or commodities are only displaying three waves up (corrective) not five waves up (impulse gives direction).
This support in some cases can be a small Wave 4 and will see further down side and in some cases like copper can be the low of a larger Wave 5 structure and central to this is the US dollar; currently it has three waves down, corrective, but if that turns into five waves down, then we will see a larger rally in stocks commodities and currencies, so all eyes on the dollar!
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01 The Detail From Today's DayAhead Technical Analysis Report – 5 June
Market Drivers
Dow jones 12,100 -0.15% (5:AM AEST)
Base Metals Positive
US Spot Gold 1612
US Silver 2800
Oil WTI 83.35
US Dollar 82.72
EURUSD 1.25
AUDUSD 0.97
Dow Jones CFD 12,060
S&P500 CFD 1273
FTSE 100 CFD 5225
DAX CFD 5990
Shanghai 2308
SPI CFD 4008
Commodities
US Spot Gold 1612
TradingLevels: The price cannot find support on top of SG1 therefore its back to check demand at the closest largest number 1600 - 1590
Elliott Wave: Wave iv) back towards 1600, the 38.2% retracement common to wave four is just below 1600. Once completed expect Wave v) up but only to 1650 for a larger ABC corrective pattern back into 1600
US Silver 2800
TradingLevels: The retest of 28 is finally underway, let’s see if 28 or the 2772 can hold as support, if so then short term longs to 29
Elliott Wave: The larger pattern at 28 over the last month can still be a triangle, and once completed break lower than 27. On the flip side we are considering the Gold count to be positive but only truly positive when its above 1650 the MediumLevel
Oil WTI 83.35
TradingLevels: The price is simply working into Group1 83|82|81 as wave iii and iv
Elliott Wave: Wave iii close to 81.20 and Wave iv close to 84 as the 38.2% retracement of Wave iii from 88
Base Metals
US Spot Prices (in l/b)
US Copper: Last: 3.34-
US Nickel: Last: 7.26-
US Zinc: Last: 0.85-
US Aluminium Last: 0.71-
US Copper CFD 330
We may have a low in place at 323 as I can count five waves down from the last high 350 and also 385. The more support on 330 the top of SG1 the more this helps confirm a low at 323. A move above 340 would also create evidence. That said we need to be mindful as the trend is down and we await any real evidence of a change in trend, the US would need to move much further down, to create a rally in metals
Forex Trading
US Dollar 82.72
TradingLevels: If the price finds the Midpoint 8250* as resistance, then expect the price to edge down lower to 8200 there would be support at SG1
Elliott Wave: The move down from the high can only be counted in three waves not five waves so far.
*Understand the TradingLevels. »Article with videos
EURUSD 1.25
TradingLevels: The 125 retest as abc for wave iv is playing out and should complete early next session, a spike above 125 but should not find support, if it does then we have a different count on our hands, technically the price should stay under 125, but I can see the structure is not completed the 5-3-5, 5 waves in wave c are not competed
Elliott Wave: abc as Wave (iv)
Trading Strategies: allow the 125 to play out then look for support or resistance
AUDUSD 0.97 (2:30pm AUD Cash Rate)
TradingLevels: 9720 and 9772 as support or resistance can be used
Trading Strategies: The retest of 9700 is only one swing of an expected three, if there are three swings then look for support on 9720 and trade long to 9772. A move back under 9672 and as retested resistance is bearish. But even though the larger move up is only three waves the next larger degree of structure is suggesting higher. So either support on 9720 and 9730 or and abc corrective pattern at 97 are the bullish elements you can look for
Index Trading
Dow Jones CFD 12,060
TradingLevels: 12000 is support, in due course it will become resistance. we are expecting a low from the five waves down from 12600 and the US dollar moving down supports the price for Indices around the 12000
Elliott Wave*: Wave iv as the bounce at 12000 it should be contained under the 12,200 and move to 11,900. The 38.2 of wave three for wave four is just under 12,200 around 12172 SG2
*Elliott Wave »TUTORIAL
Trading Strategies: A wave four can or normally sideways with overlapping wave structures, so accommodate that on 12000 down through 11900
S&P500 CFD 1273
TradingLevels: Wave four rally within SG2 has a target at 1285 once completed then wave five wave down to 1250
Trading Strategies: navigate SG2 1280|1272|1265
FTSE 100 CFD 5225
TradingLevels: The retested support on 52 cannot be ignored; while there is support on 5200 we have to consider the 5272 being retested again. I was thinking of one more wave down in line with the Dax, the FSTE wave structure down from 5400 is messy
Trading Strategies: If the price can find support on SG1 5230 then consider a test of 5272, otherwise another leg down to 5150
DAX CFD 5990
TradingLevels: counting five waves down from 6400 last high, the current low is wave iii and the bounce is wave iv which is a retest of 6100 once completed wave five will test below 5900
Day Trading: you need to allow wave iv bounce to unfold, then tackle wave v
Shanghai 2308
TradingLevels: Both the Shanghai and Shenzhen took sharp falls yesterday and they are likely to follow through lower today, however I want to see by how much in price and volume they are the only strength in the region so they are important.
SPI CFD 4008
TradingLevels: The price is gripping to 4000 as would be expected, how far it goes either side is going to be the question, so support on 4030 SG1 creates the upside and 3872 SG2 the down side
Day Trading: Continued flickering across 4000 and simply being above 4000 creates the positive bias, this simply means looking for trades in that direction.
Technical Analysis Summary
See letter top
Trading Quote
When the winds of change blow, some people build walls and others build windmills – Chinese proverb
Today's Financial Events
Time Currency Detail Forecast Previous
9:30am AUD AIG Services Index 39.6
11:30am AUD Current Account -14.1B -8.4B
2:30pm AUD Cash Rate 3.75% 3.75%
2:30pm AUD RBA Rate Statement
All Day GBP Bank Holiday
5:45pm EUR Italian Services PMI 41.9 42.3
6:00pm EUR Final Services PMI 46.5 46.5
7:00pm EUR Retail Sales m/m -0.1% 0.3%
8:00pm EUR German Factory Orders m/m -0.9% 2.2%
10:30pm CAD Building Permits m/m 2.3% 4.7%
11:00pm CAD BOC Rate Statement
11:00pm CAD Overnight Rate 1.00% 1.00%
12:00am USD ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI 53.7 53.5
NOTES: Prices may change as this Technical Analysis report is written from 3.30 - 6.30AM
Always think things out for yourself, we are only here to bounce ideas around
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02 International Index: S&P500 – Latest Elliott Wave
S&P Futures 15 Minute Chart
Monday, 4 June 2012 at 11:45:00PM AEST
Hmmm, tracking S&P Futures here. Is that a five up!? Low in place!? Think we will know more when US cash market closes. To me daily close price is always the most important price of the day!
S&P 4 Hour Chart
Monday, 4 June 2012 at 4:33:00PM AEST – weakness underway
S&P500 fell into a new low as expected after we recognized a wave 4 pull-back into 1330 area. Current weakness should then be a fifth wave within a larger degree of wave C). We are tracking minor five wave decline within wave five that will establish a low sometime this week and then send prices into a wave X).
S&P Daily Chart
03 June 2012 – wave (B) pull-back
S&P500 is weakening from recent peak, which we think its wave (B) of a complex correction within larger uptrend. We expect more weakness within current wave (B) that will look for a support around 1260 or triangle-pivot that comes in at 1215. However, ideally market will recover to 1330 before the next sell-off.
S&P Monthly Chart
28 May 2012 – wave (D) underway
On the S&P500 monthly chart we think that market is forming a tricky correction, called an expanding reverse symmetrical triangle, placed in wave four. In that type of a triangle each leg exceeds the top or low of a previous swing. In our case it means that current recovery, wave D), will extend above wave B) high seen in 2007. An important factor for this outlook are also cycles-in-time. Notice that each time when market was falling weakness lasted from 1.5-2.5 years, while in the upward legs within current range since 2000, market was bullish for 5 years. Current cycle from 2009 low already lasts more than 2.5 years, so we suspect that market is in another 5 year recovery. As such, there is still a lot of time for rally to extend higher, to upper red resistance line of a pattern.
If we combine this with the structure on a lower time frame (weekly or daily) then market is probably forming a complex W-X-Y rise within wave D).
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Technical Analysis Report Weekly
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Hi Traders
US and European Indices were showing signs of retesting after their strong moves last week.
Currencies are in line also, with the current softness overnight iseen as a pullback. If the pullback is on low volume then that will confirm. That said, the Nasdaq moved much lower nearly creating overlapping wave structures. Almost enough to call in a bearish count!
A move under 2780 could do this and the Nasdaq is noted as being a bear market leader so we should pay close attention to the so called wave four pullbacks on the US and UK indices.
The main headline events are the US employment and the Thursday 13 Sept to see if the Feds act.
Best Rgds, Pete
PS. Ask me about your trading problems. Call 0434 288 367 or email me!
PPS. What our Members say
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01 Today's DayAhead Technical Analysis Report – 4 September
Market Drivers
Dow Jones 13,254 -0.39%
SP500 1,429 -0.61%
NASDAQ 2,788 -1.30%
Base Metals Positive
US Spot Gold 1729
US Spot Silver 3350
Oil WTI 96.15
US Copper CFD 368
US Dollar CFD 80.34
EURUSD 1.2757
AUDUSD 1.0335
Dow Jones CFD 13,250
S&P500 CFD 1428
FTSE 100 CFD 5760
DAX CFD 7180
Shanghai 2134
Singapore STI 3008
ASX 200 CFD 4321
News
The euro weakened versus the dollar for the first time in four days as Greece struggled to qualify for aid. Copper rose on speculation policy makers will work to support growth while stocks and Treasuries were little changed.
Commodities
US Spot Gold 1729
TradingLevels*: The price is working with subgroup1, this means if support is found on 1730 then the next level becomes the target 1750 the midpoint.
When developing support on the top of sg1 the price normally has three swings across 1730 that checks 1720 for demand but can move lower into 1700 - 1710 but most of the time stays above 1710 *See TradingLevels article
Elliott Wave: Small wave four across 1730|1720 then up to 1750, this creates the 1772 target
US Spot Silver 3350
TradingLevels: An abc corrective pattern across 3350 the midpoint and looking at subgroup1 3330|3320 to hold as support for the move up to 3400
Oil WTI 96.15
TradingLevels: If 9650 develops support scale in long, adding above 98 as support with the target close to 100 even though the price can move above 100 because of the size of the wave four correction sitting on the midpoint 95.00
Base Metals
US Spot Prices (in l/b)
US Copper: Last: 3.65+
US Nickel: Last: 7.47+
US Zinc: Last: 0.89+
US Aluminium Last: 0.91+
US Copper CFD 368
The US copper is moving higher and faster than the UK copper.
US copper at the current highs 370 is top of a wave three, there are still a series of tops to be made as the larger moves higher, expect corrections at whole numbers, after 370 is 380 also be mindful of this being group2. We normally consider group2 65|72|80 but it’s actually much more than these numbers and when the price has a long distance to travel trough group2 like in this case, then consider 68,70,72,75,78 there will also be a smaller goup1 at 70 to consider
Forex Trading
US Dollar CFD 80.34
TradingLevels: Expected target is 77.72 assume support and a small bounce at 80 as the Major TradingLevel and as a wave four then a move down close to 79. Wave four tend to be sideways and complicated
EURUSD 1.2757
TradingLevels: Resistance 1.28. Looking for support at 12720 from the reaction of 128, once this corrective (wave four 38.2%) reaction is completed expect a move up above 128 which is the first high above the level..
Elliott Wave: The weekly wave count has been reworked, so check the charts
Trading Strategies: Wait for the correction down to find support and then wait for the price to climb up one level then trade long. That is, if the price moves to SG1 12730.. and then moves back up to find support on 12750 the midpoint the scale in there. In the slightly bigger picture support on 128 would create the 130 target
AUDUSD 1.0335
TradingLevels: 1.03 is the top on minor group1 support here creates a bullish outlook, currently the price is only in the retested stage checking for support
Elliott Wave*: The move down from 106 in in three waves abc, this is a bit small for the Wave (E) of the large triangle, this abc down is probably the larger Wave A of an ABC for (E). The current move up from 10165 area is being considered part of the abc of B of (E). *See Elliott Wave education
Trading Strategies: The current move down from 104 is considered a wave four and the 38.2% retracement level is around 103 once completed expect a move up
Index Trading
Dow Jones CFD 13,250
TradingLevels: The 13,300 is the top of minor group1, support on a group1 creates the midpoint as the next target in this case the 13,500. There is nearly always a corrective pattern at the top of group1 and as long as the next level down, the pivot in group1 and in this case the 13,200 doesn’t becomes the resistance, then the trend up remains in tack, if the 13,200 becomes the retested resistance then expect a larger correction at 13000. The Elliott count is suggesting the current move down is a wave four and the 38.2% retracement level is 13,200
Trading Strategies: allow time to see if wave four support 13,200 holds
S&P500 CFD 1428
TradingLevels: The 144 held creating the Wave (iii) high, the 38.2% as Wave (iv) is back at 1420
Trading Strategies: Wave and see how wave (iv) develops
FTSE 100 CFD 5760
TradingLevels: The mTL8 5800 is doing its job; the price is correcting in line with the US indices. As long as the price stays above 5700 the main trend up remains in tack
DAX CFD 7180
TradingLevels: The corrective pattern is unfolding at 72 as expected, just allows this to unfold.
Day Trading: wait for the correction to complete, of short with a stop above the 7200, the support is 7271 SG2 zone
Shanghai 2134
TradingLevels: No volume follow through in the last session… This first push higher needs time to develop either as a series of waves ones and twos that need to stay above the previous lows to remain bullish
Singapore STI 3008
TradingLevels: The move down is only the first swing of three that we will see across 3000 TL3 as an ABC correction
ASX 200 CFD 4321 11:30am AUD NAB Business Confidence 4
TradingLevels: The price is in SG1 4330|4320|4310 if the pivot 4320 becomes the resistance then the price will move to 4300, if the 4330 becomes the support then trade to 4350.
Day Trading: the 4330 is the line in the sand being on the right side of this as support or resistance
Technical Analysis Summary
See the Intro letter above!
Quote
Corrections on lower volume are opportunities to trade with the main trend
Today's Financial Events (Australian Time AEST)
Time Currency Detail Forecast Previous
9:50am JPY BSI Manufacturing Index -6.1 -5.7
9:50am JPY M2 Money Stock y/y 2.3% 2.2%
11:30am AUD NAB Business Confidence 4
11th-14th NZD REINZ HPI m/m -0.7%
3:30pm EUR French Final Non-Farm Payrolls q/q -0.1% -0.1%
4:00pm EUR German WPI m/m 0.3% 0.3%
4:00pm JPY Prelim Machine Tool Orders y/y -6.7%
6:30pm GBP Trade Balance -8.9B -10.1B
10:15pm CAD Housing Starts 206K 209K
10:30pm CAD Trade Balance -1.5B -1.8B
10:30pm USD Trade Balance -44.2B -42.9B
12:00am USD IBD/TIPP Economic Optimism 47.3 45.6
NOTES: Prices may change as this Technical Analysis report is written from 3.30 - 6.30AM
Always think things out for yourself, we are only here to bounce ideas around.
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