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01  THE DAY AHEAD TECHNICAL ANALYSIS REPORT – 31 July 2012»
02  FOREX – EURUSD Latest 4 Charts»

Hi Traders 

PRICE WILL REMAIN STEADILY BOUYANT UNTIL WEDNESDAY

Price will remain steadily buoyant until Wednesday with the FOMC and CNY PMI figures.
The US Dollar is moving down and the Indices and currencies are moving up and there is more of this move to unfold after a small corrective pattern unfolding now, with the markets stalling overnight. There is however to ways to count these moves and I need to explain this in the video (see below)  

Best Rgds, Pete

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01 Today's DayAhead Technical Analysis Report – 31 July

Market Drivers

Dow Jones 13,073 -.02%
Base Metals Mixed
US Spot Gold 1623 
US Silver 2818
Oil WTI 89.75
US Copper CFD 341
US Dollar CFD 82.87
EURUSD 1.2258
AUDUSD 1.05
Dow Jones CFD 13,057
S&P500 CFD 1387
FTSE 100 CFD 5684
DAX CFD 6790
Shanghai 2128
ASX 200 CFD 4257

News
Investor enthusiasm about potential central-bank moves waned in Monday trading, as stocks hovered around zero and put the Dow's three-session win streak in jeopardy.

Commodities

US Spot Gold 1623
TradingLevels*: While the price remains above 1600 the wave structure remains positive, that said the price can retest 1600 as part of the pullback, but for the time being the 1620 is the support *See TradingLevels article
Elliott Wave: A small abc corrective pattern across 1620, meaning a new high would be made above 1630

US Silver 2818
TradingLevels: The first high above the level 28 (mTL8) is being created, in due course it will be retested for support. The move up in Elliott terms is and abc and the Wave c is expect to the fourth wave of one lesser degree at 28.88

Oil WTI 89.75
TradingLevels: Oil is lagging the SP500 and CADUSD. So oil would be a good short. The current move up 77.28 is a corrective rally. So the failing at the MediumLevel 90 is part of the set up, but the 90 has to be rejected before shorting

Base Metals 
US Spot Prices (in l/b)
US Copper:           Last: 3.41-
US Nickel:             Last: 7.35+
US Zinc:                Last: 0.83-
US Aluminium       Last: 0.83-

US Copper CFD 341
If the 340 becomes the retested resistance then that is part of the short trade set up. While the 340 remains support then the market is support and positive. 
In the short term the current bounce off 340 can rally 61.8% to 343 before testing the 340 again

Forex Trading 

US Dollar CFD 82.87
TradingLevels: Wave b rally into 83, can find support into 82 SG2 and then move higher to 8330|50 to complete, then moving down below 82 as Wave c to complete the abc corrective pattern
Elliott Wave*:  Wave b rally is under way and once completed Wave c down will begin towards 80. The Wave a took 3-4 days, the Wave b is currently 1 day should be two days and Wave c should also be 3-4 days, so this abc pull back should be until the end of the week.*See Elliott Wave education

EURUSD 1.2258
TradingLevels: 1.23 is the top of group1 support on group1 creates the next target of the same price degree 1.25.
Elliott Wave: Wave a up at 12389 Wave b down in three swings to 122 (50% retracement can be further to 61.8%) and then Wave c up to 125
Trading Strategies: going long at the low of Wave b around 122

AUDUSD 1.05
TradingLevels: Expect a larger corrective pattern across 105 and then a move to 106
Elliott Wave: Expect an abc corrective pattern, that can take the price back to 104, the abc pattern may also not go back that far and may stick to 105, but all the same expect a corrective pattern. Once complete the a move up while the US dollar completed Wave c down
Trading Strategies: Wait for the corrective pattern at 105 to unfold and complete then look for a supporting price to trade from

Index Trading 

Dow Jones CFD 13,057
TradingLevels:  The bottom line is that there is further upside as the US dollar has further downside, the question is will and if so how larger will the corrective pattern at 13000 be?
Elliott Wave:  Expecting a corrective pattern between 13100 and 12900 before further upside
Trading Strategies: It’s hard to judge the size of the corrective pattern at 13000, I would tend to learn to the smaller size before a push higher

S&P500 CFD 1387
TradingLevels: Expect a corrective pattern at SG2 1365|1372|1380 which will become the support
Trading Strategies: It would be helpful to understand the correct abc pattern on the US Dollar, when the US Dollar starts its Wave c down the SP500 will move up.

FTSE 100 CFD 5684
TradingLevels: The same count as the SP500 expect a retraction correction at 5700 possibly back to 5650 before another move higher towards the 5772

DAX CFD 6790
TradingLevels: An abc corrective pattern unfolding at 6800 to 6700 once completed a move higher
Day Trading: The price is working through the 6800 as the Classic tradinglevels pattern  

Shanghai 2128
TradingLevels: The Shenzhen was down strongly to 900 yesterday, expect further downside, but with some support for the short term only at the MediumLevel ML9|900 but in the medium term offering no support for the region

ASX 200 CFD 4257
TradingLevels: If the 4250 becomes the resistance expect the price to cover the gap at 4209 on the cash. The resistance is 4272. 
Day Trading:  Work the Midpoint 4250 as support or resistance, use the retest and the volume to confirm price action

Technical Analysis Summary

Price will remain steadily buoyant until Wednesday with the FOMC and CNY PMI figures.

The US Dollar is moving down and the Indices and currencies are moving up and there is more of this move to unfold after a small corrective pattern unfolding now with the markets stalling overnight. There is however to ways to count these moves and I need to explain this in the video 

Trading Quote

"The market gets excited, and then for some reason turns around and realizes that things aren't quite as positive as we thought."

Today's Financial Events Australian Time AEST

Time       Currency   Detail     Forecast    Previous
9:15am JPY  Manufacturing PMI    49.9  
9:30am JPY  Household Spending y/y   3.1% 4.0%  
9:30am JPY  Unemployment Rate   4.4% 4.4%  
11:00am NZD  NBNZ Business Confidence    12.6  
11:30am AUD  Building Approvals m/m   -15.0% 27.3%  
11:30am AUD  Private Sector Credit m/m   0.4% 0.5%  
11:30am JPY  Average Cash Earnings y/y   0.1% -1.1%  
3:00pm JPY  Housing Starts y/y   9.5% 9.3%  
4:00pm CHF  UBS Consumption Indicator    1.05  
4:00pm EUR  German Retail Sales m/m   0.6% -0.3%  
4:45pm EUR  French Consumer Spending m/m   0.2% 0.4%  
5:55pm EUR  German Unemployment Change   8K 7K  
6:00pm EUR  Italian Monthly Unemployment Rate   10.2% 10.1%  
7:00pm EUR  CPI Flash Estimate y/y   2.4% 2.4%  
7:00pm EUR  Unemployment Rate   11.2% 11.1%  
7:00pm EUR  Italian Prelim CPI m/m   0.3% 0.2%  
10:30pm CAD  GDP m/m   0.2% 0.3%  
10:30pm CAD  RMPI m/m   1.7% -1.0%  
10:30pm CAD  IPPI m/m   0.6% 0.0%  
10:30pm USD  Core PCE Price Index m/m   0.2% 0.1%  
10:30pm USD  Employment Cost Index q/q   0.6% 0.4%  
10:30pm USD  Personal Spending m/m   0.1% 0.0%  
10:30pm USD  Personal Income m/m   0.5% 0.2%  
11:00pm USD  S&P/CS Composite-20 HPI y/y   -1.5% -1.9%  
11:45pm USD  Chicago PMI   52.6 52.9  
12:00am USD  CB Consumer Confidence   61.5 62.0  
5:00am USD  Treasury Sec Geithner Speaks

NOTES: Prices may change as this Technical Analysis report is written from 3.30 - 6.30AM
Always think things out for yourself, we are only here to bounce ideas around.

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02  FOREX: EURUSD Latest Elliott Wave Analysis 4 Charts

EURUSD 1 Hour Chart
Tuesday, 31 July 2012 at 12:51:00AM AEST

EURUSD is still weakening within wave (a) of 2/B.

EURUSD 4 Hour Chart
Monday, 30 July 2012 at 4:35:00PM AEST – low in place

We are tracking a larger recovery on EURUSD after sharp impulsive reversal from 1.2040 low. We know that impulsive waves, like wave A in our case, shows a turning point in trend, which means that market will trade even higher, probably in three waves as we are tracking corrective wave 4) pull-back. Early this week, we may see a push lower into wave B.

EURUSD Daily Chart
29 July 2012  – wave 4) pull-back

A sharp reversal on EURUSD from 1.2040 low is impulsive which means that trend has now changed for bearish to temporary bullish moves. A new updated wave count suggests that pair is now in early stages of a corrective recovery in wave 4) which may send the pair to 1.2600 level till the end of the summer.



EURUSD Weekly Chart
28 May 2012 – complex correction from 1.6

We reworked the weekly count from a triangle into a complex W)-X)-Y) pattern. Current count allows a fall to 1.18 before corrective bounce occurs, which will represent wave X of Y) of (B) as shown on the chart. That corrective leg may unfold even ahead of 1.185, but in both cases we expect weakness to 1.07-1.08 in months ahead. So even if you still favour a triangle bias is the same!

Once wave (B) from 1.6 is complete we will look for a new long-term uptrend! 

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