Technical Analysis Report Weekly
 

Hi Traders 

Markets are emotional, best if you're not!

Try our »relaxation commentaries  and learn to focus through  relaxation instead of the emotional whirlwind

TECHNICAL ANALYSIS SUMMARY:

US markets were closed so volumes are low in other markets.
I will stay on track with the current moves up in most markets as a corrective rally and likely a Wave 4. If it’s a Wave 4 then it’s more sideways way than up and we will be able to confirm this once the US markets re open so we can see the volume. It will also be handy to see more of the intraday pattern within these current lows as they can be impulsive or corrective and we need to sort that out first, but will know within two sessions what we are looking at and what to do next.

TRADING QUOTE
Markets are emotional, best if you’re not.

Best Rgds, Pete
PS. Got a question about trading? Just call 0434 288 367 or email me!
PPS. Read what our Members experience

The Detail From Today's DayAhead Technical Analysis Report – 29 May

Market Drivers

Dow Jone12,454 -0.60% - Closed
Base Metals Positive
US Spot Gold 1573
US Silver 2838
Oil WTI 90.70
US Copper CFD 346
US Dollar 82.32
EURUSD 1.2535
AUDUSD 0.9844
Dow Jones CFD 12,490
S&P500 CFD 1323
FTSE 100 CFD 5356
DAX CFD 6330
Shanghai 2361
SPI CFD 4050

Please Note: US Markets Stock Markets Closed

Commodities

US Spot Gold 1573
TradingLevels: Gold, Oil, Copper and the SP500 are all in much the same pattern since the beginning on the month as they travelled down and are now developing support on their lows, which we should fist view as corrective patterns, viewing as corrective pattern means we should look for a stronger support if considering long trades, so getting support on a few markets such as seeing support for the DJI on 12,500 and base metals copper on 350 should also be taken into consideration before trading long in Gold, the support on SG2 1565|1572|1580 would be in line with the DJI on 12500, but if you can wait for copper on 350 this would help strength the long case.
Elliott Wave: I’m unsure of the pattern off the 1530; the next few sessions will help identify it more clearly. If the Midpoint 1550 support gives way, then the pattern is corrective, the SG2 is trying to develop support, so slipping back under 1565 could also alert you to early weakness, if the SG2 can develop as support then the 1600 can be tested and its support on the 1600 that assists with a more substantial bullish view, but as mentioned above try bringing in the other markets such as copper being above 350. 

Our main view is a stronger US dollar, meaning weaker indices currencies and commodities.

US Silver 2838
TradingLevels: Intraday, Sliver is testing its old high at SG2 2865|2872|2880 which can force it back lower to 28. Supports 2772 and 2720
Elliott Wave: Like most markets, we are still gathering in the evidence from the internal structures of the supporting patterns off current lows, silver can remain positive as low as the 2720 stays in tack. There are good supporting numbers 28 and 2772, so below these and you can weakness and the pattern bias slightly to corrective

Oil WTI 90.70
TradingLevels: While the price is in MinorGroup1 (MG1) 93|92|91 then the price is still connected to 90 the MediumLevel, support on top of 93 helps detach the price out of the down trend, so while the price is in MG1 then the pattern is corrective 
Elliott Wave: Minor Wave 4

Base Metals 

US Spot Prices (in l/b)
US Copper:           Last: 3.50+
US Nickel:             Last: 7.65-
US Zinc:                Last: 0.86+
US Aluminium       Last: 0.89+

US Copper CFD 346
The Midpoint 350 is a line in the sand, the move is being considered a wave four, the current move up may only be the first leg of the corrective pattern as wave fours tend to break the trend line in their normal expanding sideways correction.  We can align this pattern with Oil and the SP500 etc. in fact while markets are in fear mode we can consider then all one pattern, and its helpful studying many of them, as each one contains a little clue to the next direction.

Forex Trading 

US Dollar 82.32
TradingLevels:  The 82 has been retested as expected, but the small retest pattern can get larger and I would expect so, however we also need to consider staying with the trend up too, so the
bounce off 82.00 if you can get to see five small waves up (impulse) from the last low 8190 to 8250 if it gets there, the you will see three wave back (abc) then new highs
Elliott Wave: Expecting a larger corrective pattern below 82.00, but until it makes the second low under 82 we don’t have a lot to work with, and being mindful the trend is up strongly we also need to treat the 82 pullback as a support level. the bottom line is that we can have a larger corrective pattern and we did get the turn at the right place, we just need to see confirmation of a lower low below 82 or 8172, otherwise the trend is expanding up in its Wave (iii) of 3 and you would stay long with stops under SG2 8172

EURUSD 1.2535
TradingLevels*: In the bigger picture the 125 is the Midpoint between 130 and 120 if the 125 becomes resistance then the 120 is the target. There is Group1-123|122|121 to navigate. The 120 is also the pivot in MinorGroup1 MG1-130|120|110 so 120 as resistance creates the 1.00 as the target, our job as traders is not really to guess where the price can go that’s for the analysts our job is to trade the psychology and that is support and resistance, trading from one number to the next  number of the same degree, this delivers the most highest and consistence results *What are all these levels and groups about? See TradingLevels videos
Elliott Wave: We are expecting a corrective pattern above 125, that technically can go back to 128 (the wave four) there are other strong resistances the 126 and 12650, that said if the 125 becomes the resistance then we simply trade short again 
Trading Strategies: Being close to 125, trade the sublevel groups SG1 Midpoint and SG2

AUDUSD 0.9844
TradingLevels: Still considering the move up as corrective in  line with the US Indices, corrective patterns and especially wave fours are a pain as they are normally complicated as they have to unwind the emotional aspect of the previous strong wave three, so we can get a larger sideways pattern across 98 we can even get a retest of 1.00 if the Euro gets above 126 and the DJI above 12500 as the ASX200 is also in a wave four
Elliott Wave: Corrective wave four 
Trading Strategies: Elliott traders don’t trade wave four, but if you have to then trade the sublevels and groups, such as looking for support on the Midpoint 9850

Index Trading 

Dow Jones CFD 12,490
TradingLevels:  Just need more time at 12500 to develop as support or resistance, because the price is sticking to 12500 that is a positive bias
Elliott Wave: A low can be in place and a wave 1 up or the move up is a wave (iv) rally, we simply need to see more of the move up and the 12500 can help as support or resistance, this just needs a session or two to develop
Trading Strategies: requires time to develop support resistance at 12500

S&P500 CFD 1323
TradingLevels: Support 1 is 1300 mTL3, support 2 is 1330 SG1, while the price is not supported on 1330 then its corrective and a part of the 1300 corrective rally story
Elliott Wave: Wave four *Start some Elliott Wave education HERE
Trading Strategies: wait for the US markets to open, support on 1330 creates the long and under this is a negative bias, but the safer short is 1300 as resistance, you may be able to use 1320 or 1310 but expect these levels to be tested from the 1300

FTSE 100 CFD 5356
TradingLevels: While the price is above 5272 and 5300 the market is supported, that said, the pattern is being considered corrective in line with all other markets
Elliott Wave: The current pattern at 5300 can get larger especially if the Dow moves above 12500 and the SP500 above 1330 as support.
Trading Strategies: because of the probable corrective pattern, use the sublevels SG1 Midpoint and SG2. If the 5372 SG2 becomes support in the next session then look long, but while the Midpoint 5350 is resistance look short. 

DAX CFD 6330
TradingLevels: The pattern sitting on 6300 is looking more corrective than impulsive, however we should wait for the US markets to reopen. The 6300 as tested resistance creates the short trade set up
Day Trading: Short the second retest of 6300 as resistance, if that is not the case then the long side is off 6350 as support.  

Shanghai 2361
TradingLevels: Support 2300, resistance SG2 2372|2380. Watch the Shenzhen at 1,000 for support or resistance, a simply more above 1,000 creates a positive structure.

SPI CFD 4050
TradingLevels: Wave 3 is in and Wave 4 underway which can move above 4100 however the historical resistance at 4150 is strong
Day Trading:  4050 as support or resistance creates the trade

Technical Analysis Summary

See letter above

Today's Financial Events 

Time          Currency   Detail                                           Forecast    Previous
9:30am      JPY             Household Spending y/y              2.5%           3.4%   
9:30am      JPY             Unemployment Rate                    4.5%           4.5%   
9:50am      JPY             Retail Sales y/y                            6.2%           10.3%   
Tentative   AUD            HIA New Home Sales m/m          -9.4%   
4:00pm      CHF            UBS Consumption Indicator        1.22   
4:00pm      EUR           German Import Prices m/m          -0.2%           0.7%   
All Day       EUR           German Prelim CPI m/m              0.0%             0.2%   
8:00pm      GBP           CBI Realized Sales                      -7 -6   
11:00pm    USD           S&P/CS Composite-20 HPI y/y    -2.7%            -3.5%   
12:00am    USD           CB Consumer Confidence           69.6              69.2 

NOTES: Prices may change as this Technical Analysis report is written from 3.30 - 6.30AM
Always think things out for yourself, we are only here to bounce ideas around.

Want to follow our DayAhead Report plus our Trades, Trading Strategies and Education?
 
»BUY A 1MONTH TRIAL HERE

Get a trial 1 Month, including a 30 minute Personal Trade Coaching session!

INCLUDES:
– Trades: ASX/US/UK CFD & Share trades with Entry & Stop, online every day
– Forex 6 major pairs Elliott Wave analysis, online every day - intraday or 1 hr, 4 hr, daily & weekly charts!
– Gold/Oil/S&P500: Elliott Wave technical analysis: 4 charts each, online every day
– Trading strategies: understand how to apply to your own analysis
– Lots of education (includes online CFD Trading courses),
– CFD accounting software, ProfitKeeper® Pro
– TradingLevels Charting Software (has TradingLevels on every chart)

»LOGIN   »REGISTER   »BUY A 1MONTH TRIAL HERE

»TOP
...........................................................................................................................................................