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01 Today's DayAhead Technical Analysis Report – 10 October
Market Drivers
Dow Jones 13,505 -0.58%
SP500 1,445 -0.68%
NASDAQ 2,749 -1.34%
Base Metals Softer
US Spot Gold 1767
US Spot Silver 3388
Oil WTI 92.15US Copper CFD 371
US Dollar CFD 80.10
EURUSD 1.2864
AUDUSD 1.020
Dow Jones CFD 13,500
S&P500 CFD 1444
FTSE 100 CFD 5800
DAX CFD 7225
Shanghai 2074
Singapore STI 3076
ASX 200 CFD 4477
News
Manufacturing unexpectedly expanded in September after three months of contraction, reflecting stronger orders that ease concern the U.S. economy will slow further.
Commodities
US Spot Gold 1767
TradingLevels On track lower as SG2 1780|1772|1765 support gives way, once 1765 becomes the retested resistance the price will move to the midpoint 1750 where a small consolidation will form before a move lower. The trade set up short is a retest of 1772 and 1765 covering half at 1750
Elliott Wave: Wave four target 1736
US Spot Silver 3388
TradingLevels: The SG1 3310|3320|3330 will see choppy price action, with 3300 – 3272 support
Oil WTI 92.15
TradingLevels: Support on top of minor group1 93 creates the next step higher to 95 support on 95 creates 98 as the target; failing to develop support on group1 brings the price back to 90. The wave structure up is still only three waves (corrective) but can develop into an impulse wave (five waves, if so this would see another five waves up)
Base Metals
US Spot Prices (in l/b)
US Copper: Last: 3.69-
US Nickel: Last: 8.14-
US Zinc: Last: 0.89-
US Aluminium Last: 0.90-
US Copper CFD 371
Copper is in line with the precious metals wave four retracement down to test the lower level of group2 365. You can also line this move down with the move up in the US dollar, that is a Wave c down in metals and a Wave c up in the dollar, once completed further upside in metals and further downside in the dollar.
Forex Trading
US Dollar CFD 80.10
TradingLevels: The Wave c of (iv) up in five waves from the last low 79.20, currently in Wave iii starting from 79.55. The price should find support on 80 and work through SG1 80.10|80.20|80.30 with expect support on 80.30 and the top of Wave iii close to the midpoint point at 80.50. The USDCHF will follow the same path up to around the 0.95, keeping an eye on both wave counts can be helpful.
EURUSD 1.2864
TradingLevels: The next level down is 1.28, expect a consolidation at the midpoint 12850
Elliott Wave: Count five waves down from the 12990 high, the 12850 should be the wave three
Trading Strategies: If you are short from the failed retest at 1.30 then continue to hold short with the view of locking in part profit at 12850 and 12830
AUDUSD 1.020
TradingLevels: The price is in a corrective swing pattern across 102, if support is found on 102 then 10272 can be retested
Elliott Wave: The abc is now completing the wave b and a wave c up is expected in five waves
Trading Strategies: If 102 develops as support then upscale through SG1 10210|10220|10230 if tested support can be found on 10230 then the target is 10250 the midpoint.
On the flipside if the 10172 becomes the tested resistance then it’s a short trade, using 10165 as tested resistance for the second position covering in part at the midpoint 10150 and waiting for the midpoint to become the resistance and short to 10130
Index Trading
Dow Jones CFD 13,500
TradingLevels: The (a) (b) (c) correction of Wave iv) continues to work through 13500 the wave (c) down will be in five waves, so start counting five waves down from the last high
Trading Strategies: If your short from the 13572 retest then continue to hold short, expect a corrective consolidation across 13500 before working lower. Use the retest of the sublevels to work new and old positions SG2 13480|13472|13465 then the midpoint 13450
S&P500 CFD 1444
TradingLevels: Supports 1440 and 1430. The wave structure can be either three waves (part of a triangle) or fives waves as Wave (c) either way expect further softness in price
Trading Strategies: If you got the failed retest of 1460 then well done, expect a consolidation at 1440, any move between 1440 and 1430 will be choppy
FTSE 100 CFD 5800
TradingLevels: The support is 5800 – SG2 5780|5772|5765 the 5772 is the most important, this as resistance opens a larger bearish pattern, which would be the bias as the Dax is leading lower
DAX CFD 7225
TradingLevels: Support 7200 (72). The wave structure would suggest new lows below 7200
Day Trading: If you are short from the 7290 then cover at 7200 and wait for the price to develop 7200 as the resistance
Shanghai 2074
TradingLevels: The general idea was for the price to test supply above 2100 then move lower to 2000 again. Yesterday was lower but on lower volume.
Singapore STI 3076
TradingLevels: Now that 3100 has be tested expect a larger move back to 3000 (TL3)
ASX 200 CFD 4477
TradingLevels*: As in most cases when the price arrives at a level there will be a series of swings, starting small and increasing in size as an expanding correction. The idea is to trade to the level and exit, allowing the corrective pattern to unfold and once it settles into the level as support or resistance the trade set up is easier to find. The trend is up for the ASX however the 4500 will deliver a larger corrective pattern. The weekly bullish cycle makes wed as the midweek high and Thursday as the bearish day, what happens on Friday will depend on the volume on Thursday, if the we have a down day today but on lower volume then we know there aren’t any real sellers
Day Trading: The pressure will be on the support today the SG2 4480|4472|4465 if the 4472 becomes the resistance then the bias is short to the midpoint 4450
Technical Analysis Summary
The US markets are trading lower in line with the wave count, as the US dollar moves higher above 80 and this should continue into the next session. The US Earnings season for the third quarter is starting.
The ASX200 is toying with the 4500 top and larger corrective swings are expected at this level. In the weekly bullish cycle Wednesday creates the high and Thursday is the bear day collecting the stops. The key point today will be observing the move down on lower or increasing volume as this will set the tone for tomorrow. The weekly bullish cycle did not have Monday as a strong volume, positive volume day so we need to be careful with long positions and should try to weave a few short positions to balance the book.
Quote
"BETS – There are just four kinds of bets. There are good bets, bad bets, bets that you win, and bets that you lose. Winning a bad bet can be the most dangerous outcome of all, because a success of that kind can encourage you to take more bad bets in the future, when the odds will be running against you. You can also lose a good bet, no matter how sound the underlying proposition, but if you keep placing good bets, over time, the law of averages will be working for you." – Larry Hite
Today's Financial Events Australian Time AEST
Time Currency Detail Forecast Previous
9:30am AUD Westpac Consumer Sentiment 1.6%
10:30am USD FOMC Member Yellen Speaks
Tentative JPY BOJ Gov Shirakawa Speaks
2:00pm CHF SNB Chairman Jordan Speaks
10th-14th CNY New Loans 665B 704B
10th-14th CNY M2 Money Supply y/y 13.6% 13.5%
4:00pm EUR German WPI m/m 0.4% 1.1%
4:00pm JPY Prelim Machine Tool Orders y/y -2.7%
4:45pm EUR French Industrial Production m/m 0.1% 0.2%
6:00pm EUR Italian Industrial Production m/m -0.6% -0.2%
12:00am USD Wholesale Inventories m/m 0.5% 0.7%
3:00am USD 10-y Bond Auction 1.76|2.9
4:00am USD Beige Book
6:30am USD FOMC Member Tarullo Speaks
Today's Financial Events Australian Time AEST
Time Currency Detail Forecast Previous
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02 International Commodity – GOLD Latest Elliott Wave 2 Charts
GOLD 1 Hour Chart
Wednesday, 10 October 2012 at 1:10:00AM AEST
Intra-day waves on gold are bearish after a recent break out of a bullish trading channel. As such, we favour more weakness on gold within a wave (c) of a flat interpretation in wave 4. However, keep in mind that larger 4h count suggests that whole price action since Sep 21st is corrective, so fall from 1796 could also be only in three waves, if maybe something more complex is unfolding (triangle!?).
GOLD 4 Hour Chart
Tuesday, 9 October 2012 at 5:28:00PM AEST – wave 4
No change!
Gold is trading lower since the NFP report from recent 1796 peak. Notice that price broke through a support line of a rising trading channel which puts a temporary bearish pressure in play. However, recovery from 1736 to 1796 was in three waves so current weakness will be a part of a corrective wave 4 which could either be a flat or a triangle.
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