Technical Analysis Report Weekly
 

01  The DayAhead Technical Analysis Report – 25 June 2012»
02  Forex: AUDUSD – Latest Elliott Wave»
03  Our Robo system delivers – see this weeks' trading record»

Hi Traders 

EVERY NOW AND THEN WE LIKE TO SHARE OUR CURRENT LINE UP OF OPEN TRADES: 

Open Positions

Notes On Trade CODE  Date         Direction  Entry    Stop          Target       Closed**       Positions Added***
Weekly Robo       AGK     25-Jun    Short         14.71     15.43         Open
Weekly Robo       AIO      25-Jun     Short          4.23       4.47          Open
Weekly Robo       AMP     25-Jun     Short         3.74       4.13          Open
Weekly Robo       ANZ      25-Jun    Short          21.13     22.13        Open
Weekly Robo       ASX      25-Jun    Short         29.06     30.13         Open
Weekly Robo       BHP     25-Jun     Short          31.27    33.13        Open
Weekly Robo       PTM     25-Jun     Short         3.76       4.13          Open
Weekly Robo       QAN     25-Jun     Short         1.09       1.23          Open
Weekly Robo       QBE     25-Jun     Short         12.49      13.27       Open
Weekly Robo       RIO      25-Jun     Short          55.44      58.33      Open
                               AQA*   22-Jun     Short          3.11        3.17         Open
                               ASX*    22-Jun    Short           29.39     29.63      Open
                               NCM*  22-Jun     Short          23.75      23.57      Open
                              OST*    22-Jun     Short          0.88        1.01          Open 
                              OZL*    22-Jun     Short          8.38        8.67          33% 8.00
                              SUN*   22-Jun      Short         7.88        8.07          Open
                              CBA*    22-Jun     Short         51.78      51.83        Open
                              WPL*    21-Jun     Short         32.62      32.43       Open             33% 32.00          Added 22/6
                              OSH*    21-Jun     Short          6.66        6.57          Open            33% 6.50           Added 22/6
                              BKN*    19-Jun     Short          5.62        5.63          33% 5.00     33% 5.50/20      Added 22/6
                              TOL*    14-Jun      Short          4.29        4.17         Open             33% 4.20/4        Added 22/6
                              PBG*    14-Jun     Short          0.54       0.525        Open             50% 0.50           Added 22/6
                              CPU*    12-Jun     Short          7.71       7.63          33% 7.00      33% 7.50           Added 22/6

* CODE: These codes have been managed first with Daily Robo System 2 and now merged to Weekly Robo System 2 as the trade is working well with the down trend.
** Closed: Partial profits have been taken at particular prices, ie 33% of the position has been take out at 32.00 in the WPL trade
***Postions Added: As the short trade has progressed positions have been added to the trade on particular dates

You can get trades winning trades like these every day when you join our Members' service!

Best Rgds, Pete

PS. Ask me about your trading problems. Call 0434 288 367 or email me!
PPS. Read what our Members say

01 The Detail From Yesterday's DayAhead Technical Analysis Report – 25 June

PLEASE NOTE We are using Monday 25 June DayAhead, simply because was a more substantial situation to comment upon and the accompanying video is more educational and informative than todays!

PLUS, you can see what we forecasted, and then what happened!

Market Drivers

Dow Jones 12,640 +0.53%  
Base Metals Positive
US Spot Gold 1570
US Silver 2700
Oil WTI 80
US Copper CFD 330.55
US Dollar 8236
EURUSD 1.2567
AUDUSD 1.0030
Dow Jones CFD 12,630
S&P500 CFD 1330
FTSE 100 CFD 5520
DAX CFD 6267
Shanghai 2260
SPI CFD 4150

Commodities

US Spot Gold 1570
TradingLevels: Gold is moving in line with stock and therefore is not being used as a safety product, traders are swapping gold for dollars, so gold and US dollars will pivot off one another, Gold Indices and currencies will move in line and of course the notes etc will be doing their normal moves with treasury yields following stock.
About the Levels* – the two largest numbers are 1600 and 1500 with 1550 the 50% support zone, we should see the price move below 1550 and then move back above as there is support there, however eventually the 1550 will become the retested resistance and the price will them below to 1500 the MediumLevel, silver is in the same boat but weaker and this was pointed out before that silver would then be the better short. It is important to now understand the wave count, and the reason for this is that the sharp moves down were a wave three strong so there will be a series of waves fours and fives, so what you see now is not what you get next, this is an important point in trading the markets, you always get the opposite of what you have just seen, so this is different from normal life this is why intelligent people have problems with trading. Sorry for waffling on, Gold will continue lower but bouncing through the sublevels SG21565|1572|1580 follow by the Midpoint 1550 then SG1 1530|1520|1510 »See the videos and read more on the TradingLevels
Elliott Wave: Wave iii) is now completed and Wave iv) is unfolding into SG2 then Wave v) down to 1550 then a larger abc bounce in line with stock. It is at the top of the abc bounce counter trend that we will short gold stocks

US Silver 2700
TradingLevels: Nice short set up from the failed retest of mTL8|28, the target is the MediumLevel 25 ML25.  The 50% between these levels is 2650 this is where you can expect a corrective continuation pattern, if you can hold through this then you can get lower. There is the possibility that an even larger bear market could be looming, so even holding through the larger correction at 25 could be the go with looking to add to positions once the 25 is retested as resistance. We have to do more work on the possibilities of this occurring but in the meantime 25 is the target
Elliott Wave: Same - The larger pattern over May and June is corrective and probably a wave four so it would have the next target at 25 (ML25) that is from 28 (mTL8)

Oil WTI 80
TradingLevels: The retest from the first MinorLevel mTL8|78  to TL8|80 is underway. As mentioned earlier its actually 81 that is the resistance rather than 80, the 80 will build in the end as the resistance.
Wave Structure: we are calling the current low Wave (i) and if that is the case the Wave (ii) rally can move back to 61.8% of Wave (i) which is deeper into the supply zone of resistance at 82.  Because we are looking for short trades here, we simply need the corrective rally to mature, the more mature the corrective pattern becomes then more we can understand and therefor make better decisions regarding the entry, however in a nut shell we are looking for a three wave abc counter trend and at the end of the day are looking for the 80 as retested resistance to short shorting, with the view of adding to shorts at 79 and more so at 78 but once again as the tested resistance.

Base Metals 

US Spot Prices (in l/b)
US Copper:           Last: 3.32+
US Nickel:             Last: 7.51-
US Zinc:                Last: 0.82-
US Aluminium       Last: 0.82+

US Copper CFD 330.55
Elliott Wave*: Wave iv) retracement as a retest of Sublevel 330. Expect Wave v) of (i) as the next move. 
LME Warehouse stocks are still high for the month.
As the US dollar has it’s small wave four iv) retracement down, copper has it’s small wave four
retracement up, both of these counter trend moves are over all will be in the first half of the next session, followed by them both resuming their trends, copper down and the dollar up, for wave five. After five waves comes a larger abc counter trend in the opposite direction approximately 40 – 70% in a 5-3-5 abc corrective Zigzag pattern. I will draw the path out in the video and also look at BHP as this is really all about trading stocks in the material sectors in any country *Understand more of the Elliott Wave on our article pages

Forex Trading 

US Dollar 8236
TradingLevels:  The US dollar is unfolding nicely through the internal Elliott wave count and within the range of the sublevels, firstly the Midpoint 82.50 and will search for support in SG1 of 82 that is 8230|8220|8210 the 30/20 should find the support as Wave iv) 
Elliott Wave: The same count as the SP500 but the mirror opposite, the Wave iv) retracement, once completed a move up into SG28265|8272|8280 which would be the top of the first set of five waves the Impulse wave as a larger Wave (i) from here expect an abc counter trend down (40-62% retracement of Wave (i) roughly) as Wave (ii) once completed then Wave (iii) up strongly this is the one that you want to trade

EURUSD 1.2567
TradingLevels: Nice clean break lower on the daily chart. As noted earlier the Euro was the laziest in the rally against other currencies including the SP, so it therefore stands that is would also be the weakest and the better short and this is the case, the Euro will lead down, the AUD has had a fast fall, however that is part of the China PMI that came out first
Elliott Wave: Wave three down towards 1.25
Trading Strategies: Wave rally is likely completed, long term traders can look at getting small short positions above 1.25 and then looking to add to short positions once 1.25 is resistance.
Intraday: the first five waves down should get to 1.25, the Wave iv) corrective rally can be into 12530 but more likely into and across 12550 with wave v) edging down to 125

AUDUSD 1.0030
TradingLevels: The first bounce off TL1|1.00 is occurring, allow it to run out of steam and test lower into 1.00 which should be the completion of Wave one
Elliott Wave: The 38.2% retracement level for Wave (iv) is in the SG2 1.0080,once Wave  (iv) is completed then its down into 1.00 for Wave (v) which makes the larger wave one, from there we can expect and ABC rally in line with most other markets, it is the end of this ABC rally that we want to start scaling in short for wave three
Trading Strategies: once the first five waves down are completed then we can expect a counter trend abc rally 5-3-5 and then more importantly another five waves down, the short trade set should be around Tue/Wed the SP500 etc will have the same wave count.

Index Trading 

Dow Jones CFD 12,630
TradingLevels:  The current small rally on Friday should be completed, expect a move down into 12,500 for the first bounce, the 61.8% would above 12,700
Elliott Wave:  Once the price get to 12,500 then Wave (i) will be completed, Wave (ii) the abc counter trend rally can rally 61.8% 12,750?
Trading Strategies: Once Wave (ii) is completed start scaling in short for the longer term and Wave (iii). Scaling in points need to be retested resistance levels such as 12,700, 12,650, 12,600 and 12,500 but we can look at this more closely as it unfolds, but the main point it to have most short trade in above the 12,500, this is because in the next degree higher of wave structure a larger wave two can come back from 12,000 to 12, 500, this may not be the case as we are entering three degrees of wave three to the downside

S&P500 CFD 1330
TradingLevels: A move down into 1320 to complete wave (i) then and abc bounce into first resistance 1330, the price can move above 1330 (SG1) but will it find support would be the question at the time 
Trading Strategies: Once the five waves down from the last high are competed and followed by the 40/62% abc corrective rally which can be as high as 1350 retest but probably lower around 1338, once this rally is completed you can short into wave (iii) down

FTSE 100 CFD 5520
TradingLevels: The wave structure will follow the other indices.  The first impulse wave down should complete into SG2 5480|5472|5465, the 5500 will and is a supporting factor, but the main point is that another move down into this area will complete the five waves down as Wave (i), then the abc rally 61.8%? back to 5572 then look to short into Wave (iii) down, the set can take two sessions, that is wave (ii) completed

DAX CFD 6267
TradingLevels: The same wave count as the other indices.
Day Trading: The short trade should now be focussed around the Wave (ii) abc rally and the levels would be the failing retest of 6300 the trigger levels would be the sublevels SG2 6280|6272|6265 then adding under the Midpoint 6250 it is the 6272 that is the most important level as tested resistance

Shanghai 2260
TradingLevels: Expect support from the last low in March

SPI CFD 4150
TradingLevels: The five waves down to 4000 are still unfolding to make wave (i) in line with all the other Indices and the AUDUSD.
Day Trading:  The 4072 SG2 should hold as resistance as its close to the 38.2% wave iv) retracement level. But understand when Wave v) of (i) into 4000 arrives the 4000 (and SG1) will offer support for a larger bounce up as a retest of 4100.  The abc bounce will be a 5-3-5 structure and its more important to follow the structure than the 61.8% retracement    

Technical Analysis Summary

On track with the unfolding structure, all markets Indices commodities and currencies are in harmony and have the same wave count downwards.
We are still counting the first impulse wave down (five waves) from the last high on the 20 June, this impulse wave of five waves should be completed in the next session.
This first impulse wave of five small waves will make Wave (i) once this is completed expect a bounce an abc counter trend up as Wave (ii) once this is completed expect stronger Wave (iii) down and this is the leg we want to short

Three great quotes for traders from Benjamin Franklin:

Being ignorant is not so much a shame, as being unwilling to learn. 

By failing to prepare, you are preparing to fail. 

Creditors have better memories than debtors.

NOTES: Prices may change as this Technical Analysis report is written from 3.30 - 6.30AM
Always think things out for yourself, we are only here to bounce ideas around

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02 Forex: AUDUSD – Latest Elliott Wave

AUDUSD 1 Hour CHart
Monday, 25 June 2012 at 6:57:00PM AEST

AUDUSD could recover in the next couple of sessions within wave 2 as we can already count five waves down in wave 1. However, only a rise to 1.0070 will suggest that wave 1 reached a low. In either scenario this pair should continue lower while it trades below 1.0220. 

AUDUSD 4 Hour Chart
Monday, 25 June 2012 at 4:37:00PM AEST – wave (4) appears complete

No change
Australian dollar has turned sharply lower last week and was one of the weakest currency on Thursday/Friday after a channel break, which leaves only three wave structure behind, from 0.9580 low. We know that three wave patterns are corrective, so we assume that market reached a top and that weakness will be seen. We however still want to get that overlap with wave A) around parity, when final confirmation for downtrend continuation will be made. 



AUDUSD Daily Chart
24 June 2012 – corrective bounce appears complete

AUDUSD made quite deep and powerful pull-back from the latest low, which is usually the case as in risk-on mode investors seek high-yielding currencies. However, despite a deep pull-back our count remains valid and still pointing to lower levels after recent bearish reversal from 1.0220. More weakness is in view now, firstly towards 0.9817.

We will rework the count if 1.0222 invalidation level is breached.

AUDUSD Weekly Chart
May 28 2012 – flat in IV)

On Australian dollar we are still tracking a 3-wave corrective pattern from 2011 highs, called a flat correction. The reason is a substructure in both A and B legs, which was corrective. Well, a decline from the most recent swing high @1.08 is impulsive; sharp and big move in short period of time which suggests that pair is falling within wave C, final leg of a corrective wave IV). Ideally we will see a fall beneath 0.938 where market will bottom.

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