Technical Analysis Report Weekly
 

01    TECHNICAL ANALYSIS – Today's DayAhead Report – 24 April 2012» 
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Hi Traders 

EUROPEAN INDICES ARE STARTING THEIR MINOR WAVE 5 DOWN 

The Euro may have topped as we are seeing the first five waves down... 
The Euro would be lining up with the SP500 as it moves down in Wave C or (iii), we think the Euro is the better short trade as it will be fuelled by the European stocks which in turn have the SP500 turning lower.

In Asia we were looking for the Chinese markets to retrace from their current highs and that is the case but have further to pull back. Even with the US and European markets negative the Hang Seng and Australian markets are quite healthy the softness over the last two days has been on lower volume which is  a sign that no one really wants to sell.  

The 4300 – 4272 is the support for the ASX200 and while that holds then the market is supported. But I should mention the bullish weekly cycle is not plying out to the upside, so this is a slight concern, especially when mixed with the US and European markets.

The European markets are starting their Wave 5 down and the US markets their Wave C once both of these have completed this move we should see the ABC bounce for Europe and five waves up for the US, this should help take the Asian stocks higher, but for the current short tern there is weakness, so we either have to ride out long positions or cover them today.

Best Rgds, Pete
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01  Today's DayAhead Technical Analysis Report – 24 April

Market Drivers

Dow  Jones 12,922 -0.82% 
Base Metals Negative
US Spot Gold: 1636
US Silver: 30.60
Oil WTI: 103.00
US Copper CFD: 363
US Dollar: 79.50 
EURUSD 1.3150
AUDUSD 1.03
Dow Jones CFD 12,925
S&P500 CFD: 1367
FTSE 100 CFD: 5677
DAX CFD: 6550
Shanghai 2388
SPI CFD 4326

US Commodities Trading

US Spot Gold: 1636
TradingLevels: The 1640 is now an important resistance from a supply point of view.
Elliott Wave: The Elliott count is still another leg down to 1600, it’s only if the price found support back on 1650 the MediumLevel that we can consider any upside and now the 1640 is a point of resistance. 
The wave count below the 1650 is messy and not clear enough for a clear count, it does have impulse waves to the downside and corrective rallies suggesting the direction is lower.

US Silver: 30.60
TradingLevels: Expect a bounce at 30.00 TL3 Major TradingLevel
Elliott Wave: makes the break lower towards he 61.8% retracement at 30.00 (TL3)

Oil WTI: 103.00
TradingLevels: Makes another small lower high under the resistance 105 but is supported on 102, we need to see the 102 locked in as tested resistance, then we would know the 100 support would be chipped away at…
Elliott Wave: We need to see a clean break of the 100 to confirm the wave structure down.

Base Metals 

US Spot Prices (in l/b)
US Copper:           Last: 3.67-
US Nickel:             Last: 7.95-
US Zinc:                Last: 0.89-
US Aluminium       Last: 0.91-

US Copper CFD: 363
The abc to 370 can be completed and the market would work down into new lows or the abc to 370 is just the Wave (a) of a larger (a) (b) (c) correction. We should know towards the end of the next session or Wed

Forex Trading 

USD is showing some strength against the several major currencies, particularity against the Euro after poor PMI numbers; 47.9 against 49.4 expectations. We favour euro weakness, but from trading point of view, we need to remain patient, because USD strength is still not impulsive as mentioned under some charts in the Forex section.

US Dollar: 79.50 
TradingLevels:  79.30 SG1 is the new support. The 61.8% retracement from the new impulse wave up is 79.40 the Midpoint will also play the support and the balance on the pull back.  The resistance is the top of the impulse wave which is in SG2 7965|7972|7980 
Elliott Wave: Are we seeing the low in the dollar at 79.20, in the last session we can count five waves up as an impulse wave from 79.20 to 79.75 and five waves down for the Euro, so we can have the turn in place. For the dollar we should see the price work higher as long as the 79.30 holds as support

EURUSD 1.3150
TradingLevels: SG2 13165|13172|13180 is the target zone for the abc bounce off 131
Elliott Wave*: look for an abc bounce off 131, 50/62% of the last impulse wave down, I will explain this in the video
Trading Strategies: Look for short trade set-up as the bounce rally off 131 stops.
*See Elliott Wave education

AUDUSD 1.03
TradingLevels*: US Indices and Currencies are expected lower this is going to place selling pressure on the AUD The Supports are 103 then SG2 10280|10272|10265 then the Midpoint 10250. The 10272 (72) is very important and the resistance is the price failing to find support on top of SG1 10330 it can trade above this price but will it find support, if not then expect the 10272 to be taken out. The AUD won’t fall as fast as the Euro and the Euro would be the better short trade
Elliott Wave: Unclear, use the levels and the internal wave structures as they unfold 
Trading Strategies: Failing to find support on 10330 would create short trades, but the short trades are safest under the 10272 and the 103 on the second failed retest.
I would look at the Euro rather than the AUD partly because the European stocks are also weak and combined with the US stocks about to be weaker this will impact the Euro more than the AUD (CPI Figures today)
*Learn more about our unique TradingLevels through this »introductory article and videos

Index Trading 

Dow Jones CFD 12,925
TradingLevels:  Under 13,000 (TL13) offers the negative bias but expect a retest of TL13. The main point in the retest of 13,000 is will the price fail, will it slip back under 12900Elliott Wave:  An impulse structure (five waves) unfolding down from the last high 13100 this structure is either Wave (ii) or Wave (c) the next support is 12,800 the first MinorLevel of support 
Trading Strategies: If the 12900 becomes the resistance then short from there to 12800 as the Dow works every 100 points

S&P500 CFD: 1367
TradingLevels: The price is under 1372 the SG2 1365|1372|1380 a sign of weakness.
Elliott Wave: New lows would be expected because the pattern within SG2 is corrective. Wave C or (iii) is unfolding down which is a five wave structure the Midpoint 1350 is the next level after SG2
Trading Strategies: Look for a failed retest of 1372 or if 1365 becomes resistance then short from there, also check the volume to confirm the price action

FTSE 100 CFD: 5677
TradingLevels: For shorting, its about working out the supply levels, the 5772 is the current resistance, once we get the bounce off the 5700 back to 5672 or 5700 or even 5720 this is what you have to find as this is where you can short. The bounce off the 5700 will be an abc 5-3-5 structure and the text book retracement would be the 50/62%
Elliott Wave: The abc is completed and the impulse wave down is starting, which should see a bounce off 5600, maybe back to 5700 as an abc counter trend then down again through the 5600 this is a larger Wave 5 down I will explain this in the video 
Trading Strategies: look for short trade set-ups, especially shorting from the weakness off the 5700 bounce

DAX CFD: 6550
TradingLevels: The bounce off the MediumLevel 6500 (16 Apr) is a minor Wave 4. It may or may not be completed as wave fours can get complicated, a move under the 6500 would help to confirm it and then Wave 5 down would be underway
Day Trading: If 6500 is tested as resistance then short

Shanghai 2388
TradingLevels: The move up to 2400 as wave (i) and now expecting a wave (ii) back down the 2340 is the first support

SPI CFD 4326
TradingLevels: The ASX200; move down over the last two days are on lower volume, a bullish sign, the 4300 as support is the main event. 
Day Trading:  Like the Shanghai, the move up from the 11 Apr around the 4220 to the current high close to 4390 can be considered five waves so a 61.8% retracement bring the price back to 4280 so the range of 4300 to 4272 is the support a move below this would create a more bearish picture
(CPI Figures today)

Trading Quote

"In an uptrend, if a higher high is made but fails to carry through, and prices dip below the previous high, the trend is apt to reverse. The converse is true for downtrends." – Victor Sperandeo

Today's Financial Events 

Time       Currency   Detail     Forecast    Previous
8:45am  NZD        Visitor Arrivals m/m     -4.9%   
9:50am  JPY        CSPI y/y    -0.6% -0.6%   
11:30am  AUD        CPI q/q    0.8% 0.0%   
11:30am  AUD        Trimmed Mean CPI q/q    0.6% 0.6%   
12:00pm  CNY        CB Leading Index m/m     0.8%   
12:00pm  NZD        Credit Card Spending y/y     4.0%   
4:00pm  CHF        Trade Balance    1.99B 2.68B   
4:00pm  CHF        UBS Consumption Indicator     0.87   
6:30pm  GBP        Public Sector Net Borrowing    15.6B 12.9B   
7:00pm  EUR        Industrial New Orders m/m    1.4% -2.3%   
Tentative  ALL        G7 Meetings       
10:30pm  CAD        Core Retail Sales m/m    0.8% -0.5%   
10:30pm  CAD        Retail Sales m/m    0.2% 0.5%   
11:00pm  EUR        Belgium NBB Business Climate    -7.5 -9.6   
11:00pm  USD        S&P/CS Composite-20 HPI y/y    -3.5% -3.8%   
12:00am  USD        CB Consumer Confidence    70.1 70.2   
12:00am  USD        New Home Sales    321K 313K   
12:00am  USD        OFHEO HPI m/m    0.1% 0.0%   
12:00am  USD        Richmond Manufacturing Index    7 7   
3:30am  CAD        BOC Gov Carney Speaks Jones 

NOTES: Prices may change as this Technical Analysis report is written from 3.30 - 6.30AM
Always think things out for yourself, we are only here to bounce ideas around.

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