Technical Analysis Report Weekly
 

01  Today's DayAhead Technical Analysis Report: 20 June 2012»
02  International Index: S&P – Latest Elliott Wave»
03  Daily Trades & Reports, Plus Education & Software: how much better does it get!»

Hi Traders 

EVERYTHING IS ON TRACK 

The main market mover tonight is the US Fed FOMC meeting. In fact markets having been rallying up in the hope of a continuing stimulus via Q3 or extending Twist however the coffers are empty so they can’t give much.

Therefore it’s likely to be one of the old trading adages “Buy the rumour sell the fact” and in this case we need to tighten up our stops on all global long trades and prepare for the reversal.

Best Rgds, Pete

PS. Ask me about your trading problems. Call 0434 288 367 or email me!
PPS. Read what our Members say

01 The Detail From Today's DayAhead Technical Analysis Report – 20 June

Market Drivers

Dow Jones 12,837 +0.75%  
Base Metals Positive
US Spot Gold 1620
US Silver 2845
Oil WTI 84.30
US Copper CFD 342
US Dollar 8150
EURUSD 1.27
AUDUSD 1.02
Dow Jones CFD 12,850
S&P500 CFD 1345
FTSE 100 CFD 5500
DAX CFD 6350
Shanghai 2300
SPI CFD 4150

Global stocks rose for a fourth day, the longest rally since April, and the U.S. dollar weakened as investors speculated the Federal Reserve may announce more stimulus measures. The euro climbed as Spanish bond yields fell after the government met its target at a bill auction.

Commodities

US Spot Gold 1620
TradingLevels: It’s really all about the Feds FOMC meeting on Wednesday, as stocks are positive and the Dollar negative and Gold hasn’t really moved.
If support is found on top of 1630 (top of SG1) then it can move away from 1600 to 1650 and if the price finds 1620 as retested resistance then it’s back to 1600, It would seem the Dow would have to be above 13000 for Gold to be under 1600 and in the meantime Gold should edge lower while the Dow is moving upwardsElliott Wave: The intraday wave structure at 1620-1630 is unclear, however has a bearish bias, especially when looking at Silver

US Silver 2845
TradingLevels: the SG2 2865|2872|2880 has held the price and kept the larger pattern corrective and bearish, the pattern is still sitting on 28.00 (mTL8 and this level as resistance creates the larger bearish picture, so while it’s on 28 it’s supported.
Elliott Wave: The larger pattern over May and June is corrective and probably a wave four so it would have the next target at 25 (ML25) that is from 28 (mTL8)

Oil WTI 84.30
TradingLevels: Oil is being forced up with lower US Dollar and higher Indices into the Feds meeting. We can expect 85 to ne reached and maybe even a tad higher, but support on 85 (mTL85) is another storey, let’s just wait and see if it fails or finds support here at 85
Elliott Wave: The move up from the last low at 82 is three waves, however if it’s the Wave c) then it will be five waves

Base Metals 

US Spot Prices (in l/b)
US Copper:           Last: 3.44+
US Nickel:             Last: 7.71+
US Zinc:                Last: 0.86+
US Aluminium       Last: 0.85+

US Copper CFD 342
Commodities are puppets on the string of the Feds Wed meeting with Indices up and dollar down, the Indices are in their latter stages of Wave C of ABC corrective rallies and in line with the FOMC and therefore base metals are swayed that way.

Forex Trading 

US Dollar 8150
TradingLevels:  A corrective pattern across 8150 then down to 8130, a bounce then into 8120 SG1 zone to completed the five waves down, this must also line up reasonably closely with the Indices and of course the pound, euro etc 
Elliott Wave: Working another five waves down from the last high around 8230 down into 81 in line with the SP500 to the upside

EURUSD 1.27
TradingLevels: Expecting a corrective pattern at 127 which will be the balance line and SG2 below as support and SG1 above as resistance for the corrective pattern
Elliott Wave*: The Euro and SP500 move in pretty much the same during a trading session and we can see the corrective pattern up from the beginning of June is a complicated corrective pattern, so we should line it up with the SP500 DJI NASDAQ etc as they are much clearer, they are in ABC patterns and are currently in Wave C and within Wave C which will be five waves, it appears we are close to the top of Wave (iii) so a Wave (iv) and Wave (v) to go for Wave C ( there is a difference in the SP500 Cash & Futures charts). It should also be pointed out that that when over laying Indices and FX charts the Euro has generally been the weakest that said the move back up to 127 has been swift.
Trading Strategies: Expect an abc correction across 127 then further upside in line with the SP500 wave count. Long if 127 becomes the tested support.  *Discover the Elliott Wave Theory

AUDUSD 1.02
TradingLevels: The SP500 still has wave four and five of Wave C to unfold, so this will take the AUD along for the ride, the US dollar is the same to the down side. So expect a corrective pattern across 102 then up again 10272
Elliott Wave: A series of waves fours and fives at 102 as the top of Wave (iii)
Trading Strategies: There will be a corrective pattern at 102 then up, so it all depend on the degree of structure you’re working

Index Trading 

Dow Jones CFD 12,850
TradingLevels:  TL13|13,000 the Major TradingLevel is the price point for the retest
Elliott Wave:  (Index) The 61.8% retracement for the ABC corrective rally is around 12840.  The price is currently in Wave (iii) of C so we can expect the price to move higher towards 13000
Trading Strategies: The Dow works to every 100 points, use SG1, Midpoint and SG2 to trade

S&P500 CFD 1345
TradingLevels: The 61.8% retracement on the Cash is 1363.  The resistance for the levels is SG2 1365|1372|1380 with 72, 1372 being the important balance as support or resistance.
The Elliott wave count, the ABC rally
Trading Strategies: If your trading sublevels then 1350 as support is your set up, taking part profit at 1365 and the rest at 1372. If you’re working the MicroLevels then you know what you are doing and would also read the volume, plus keeping an eye in the Dollar and Bonds

FTSE 100 CFD 5500
TradingLevels: The 61.8% retracement on the Cash is 5700 the 5600 is the 50% and also where the supply starts, so we have to expect resistance here at the 5600 in line with the US market, even though there can be a push higher it can also fold back fast into 5600. The trade was from 5500 to 5600 but you will need to be careful here at 5600 expect swings across this price.

DAX CFD 6350
TradingLevels: A 50% retracement level at 6500 is more realistic for the Dax than the 61.8% at 6700, the supply into 6400 to 6500 is quite think so this will be a battle of finding support on 6300 (top of MinorGroup1) and finding resistance into 6500, keep an eye on the volume as the price moves up, low volume with higher prices is weakness.
Day Trading: Intraday, a small wave four across the Midpoint 6350 then a move up to SG2 and 6400

Shanghai 2300
TradingLevels: The move up over the last eight days is corrective, so we have to expect further downside. The PMI Manufacturing figures are out tomorrow at 12.30.

SPI CFD 4150
TradingLevels*: The move down yesterday was on lower volume a bullish signal on the cash, but remember our target for the Cash is SG2 4165|4172|4180Day Trading:  CFDs expect a small wave four across the Midpoint 4150 and then a new high into SG2, the futures / CFDs can go higher than the Cash   *»Learn more about the TradingLevels

Technical Analysis Summary

See Letter above

Trading Quote

You decide your fate, the market doesn’t.

Today's Financial Events (Australian Time AEST)

Time       Currency   Detail                                             Forecast    Previous

8:45am    NZD          Current Account                             -1.16B          -2.76B   
9:01am    GBP          BOE Quarterly Bulletin       
9:50am    JPY           Monetary Policy Meeting Minutes       
9:50am    JPY           Trade Balance                                -0.36T         -0.48T   
10:00am  AUD          CB Leading Index m/m                   0.2%   
10:30am  AUD          MI Leading Index m/m                    0.4%   
11:30am  AUD          Housing Starts q/q                          -2.0%           -6.9%   
2:30pm    JPY           All Industries Activity m/m               0.2%            -0.3%   
4:00pm    EUR          German PPI m/m                           -0.1%            0.2%   
6:30pm    GBP          Claimant Count Change                -3.1K             -13.7K   
6:30pm    GBP          MPC Meeting Minutes                   0-0-9             0-0-9  
6:30pm    GBP          Unemployment Rate                      8.2%             8.2%   
6:30pm    GBP          Average Earnings Index 3m/y        0.8%             0.6%   
7:00pm    CHF          ZEW Economic Expectations        -4.0   
12:30am  USD          Crude Oil Inventories                    -0.2M   
2:30am    USD          FOMC Statement       
2:30am    USD          Federal Funds Rate                      <0.25%           <0.25%   
4:00am    USD          FOMC Economic Projections       
4:15am    USD          FOMC Press Conference  

NOTES: Prices may change as this Technical Analysis report is written from 3.30 - 6.30AM
Always think things out for yourself, we are only here to bounce ideas around

............................................................................................................................................................

02 International Index: S&P – Latest Elliott Wave

CS&P Futures 1 Hour Chart
Wednesday, 20 June 2012 at 1:15:00AM AEST

S&P Futures up in wave (v) of C. tacking minor five wave rally from 1326. Important key level at 1336.

S&P 4 Hour Chart
Tuesday, 19 June 2012 at 5:02:00PM AEST – corrective recovery

S&P500 cash market is trading higher within a third leg of a recovery which represents final stages of wave X) corrective pull-back. Nice resistance area comes in at 1360 from where an impulsive sell-off will cause a downtrend continuation. 

S&P Daily Chart
16 June 2012 – wave (B) pull-back

S&P500 fell quite sharply from recent peak, which we think its wave (B) of a complex correction within larger uptrend. We expect more weakness within current wave (B) that will look for a support around 1260 or triangle-pivot that comes in at 1215. However, now market is in corrective contra-trend movement, up to 1360 resistance area, from where sell-off will be expected.

............................................................................................................................................................

03 Daily Trades & Reports, Plus Education & Software: how much better does it get!

Members also get personal coaching
 
»BUY A 1MONTH TRIAL HERE

INCLUDES:
– Trades: ASX/US/UK CFD & Share trades with Entry & Stop, online every day
– Forex 6 major pairs Elliott Wave analysis, online every day - intraday or 1 hr, 4 hr, daily & weekly charts!
– Gold/Oil/S&P500: Elliott Wave technical analysis: 4 charts each, online every day
– Trading strategies: understand how to apply to your own analysis
– Lots of education (includes online CFD Trading courses),
– CFD accounting software, ProfitKeeper® Pro
– TradingLevels Charting Software (has TradingLevels on every chart)

»LOGIN   »REGISTER   »BUY A 1MONTH TRIAL HERE

»TOP
...........................................................................................................................................................