Technical Analysis Report Weekly
 

01  THE DAY AHEAD TECHNICAL ANALYSIS REPORT – 17 July 2012»
02   FOREX – AUDUSD Latest 4 Charts»
03  SYDNEY TRADING EXPO – complimentary tickets are yours!»

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PPS. What our Members say

01 Today's DayAhead Technical Analysis Report – 17 July

Market Drivers

Dow Jones 112,729 -0.37% 
Base Metals Positive
US Spot Gold 1588
US Silver 2738
Oil WTI 87.66
US Copper CFD 349
US Dollar CFD 83.40
EURUSD 1.2278
AUDUSD 1.0250
Dow Jones CFD 12,750
S&P500 CFD 1353
FTSE 100 CFD 5650
DAX CFD 6550
Shanghai 2148
ASX 200 SPI CFD 4107

Commodities

US Spot Gold 1588
TradingLevels: Retested support in SG2 should see the price at 1600 
Elliott Wave: A move to 1600 delivers an impulse wave up from the last low around 1554.  Expect a reaction at 1600 with support at 1580|72 

US Silver 2738
TradingLevels: The support can be lifted from 2700 to 2720 and the target is still the same at 2772 and (mTL8) 28.  Traders will also need to navigate 2750 expect a small classic pattern

Oil WTI 87.66
TradingLevels: The price is on target for 88 (mTL8 profit taking) where we can expect a corrective pattern across this level, the pattern should be a Classic and as a Wave (iv)

Base Metals 

US Spot Prices (in l/b)
US Copper:           Last: 3.49+
US Nickel:             Last: 7.32+
US Zinc:                Last: 0.85+
US Aluminium       Last: 0.84+

US Copper CFD 349
Wave iv completed in to 346 and Wave v up above 350 into 352 – 353 area. This is the first high above the level, once it’s in place expect an abc corrective pattern back below 350, this is a likely classic pattern unfolding across 350

Forex Trading 

US Dollar CFD 83.40
TradingLevels: On track as the dollar move lower into 83 (mTL3), but can move lower as the Euro’s target is also higher around 1.23.
Elliott Wave:   Corrective abc as wave four into 83.00 – 82.72 SG2  

EURUSD 1.2278
TradingLevels:  The move to 1.23 is struggling under the supply and therefore the SG2 especially the 12272 is an important pivot
Elliott Wave: abc as Wave iv, so far it’s a simply three wave structure, however this may only be one leg of the corrective pattern we simply have to be mindful that wave fours can get complicate after a long wave three. The euro is weaker when compared to the SP500 on the hour chart
Trading Strategies: The short trade is the next trade, but we need to wait for the top around the 123 to confirm and the evidence is and impulse wave down (five waves) or the SG2 or Midpoint as retested resistance can bring the same result.

AUDUSD 1.0250
TradingLevels: A neat three wave corrective retest pattern back in 1.02 checking for support. The price should impulse up from 102, working across the midpoint 10250 then in SG2 10265|10272|10280 with 103 in sight
Elliott Wave: counting five waves from 101 to 103+ The original target was 10372.
Trading Strategies: Allow the price to correct across 10250 and once support is found then trade to 10265 take part profit then the rest at 10272, if the 72 becomes the support scale back in on that support and add to the position on 10280 and trade to 10297, you can take part profit at 10290

Index Trading 

Dow Jones CFD 12,750
TradingLevels:  The cash is find the 12772 (72) as resistance followed by 12,800 (mTL8)
Elliott Wave:  The Wave (ii) rally with the 61.8% close to 12,800. The small corrective pattern created in the last session is likely a wave four, that said, we are looking for a top here.
Trading Strategies: same again no strategy between 12700 - 12800

S&P500 CFD 1353
TradingLevels: We are looking for a top here, but there is no evidence as yet. While the price is above 1350 the midpoint the price is supported and the trend up remains positive.  The pattern sitting on 1350 support would be bullish corrective while it remains above this level. the 61.8% retracement is 1360 roughly.
Trading Strategies: No strategy, as we need to allow the move up to play out, either as three waves i.e. abc or an impulse wave i.e. five waves. An impulse wave up from the last low 1324 to above 1360 would see further upside to 1400, this is why we need to allow the rally time to develop

FTSE 100 CFD 5650
TradingLevels: The move down from the 6 – 12 July is corrective, so a new high should be made, however the current move up from the last low 5585 is really struggling at the SG2 5665|5672|5680 and if the midpoint 5650 becomes resistance then a larger corrective pattern is unfolding down as a Wave C I need to explain this in the video.  The 5650 is the balance line in the larger correction, so this level as support or resistance creates the bias and the side to trade 

DAX CFD 6550
TradingLevels: While the price is above the MediumLevel 6500 the market is positive.  We can expect the 6500 to be tested again if the Midpoint 6550 becomes the resistance
Day Trading: treating the rally as corrective while its under 6600.  Given enough time the price will eventually find the 6500 as support or resistance 

Shanghai 2148
TradingLevels: On track, the low was taken out and the trend continues down offering now support for the region

ASX 200 SPI CFD 4107
TradingLevels: While the price is above 4100 its support and that’s the bias. It’s only when the price can find support on top of SG1 4130 that it detaches from 4100. While the price is under 4130 than its still part of the 4100 storey and this means more corrective price action can occur across 4100
Day Trading:  Support on 4110 is the start to the upside, so while the price is under that its down. Like wave fours in Elliott we don’t trade, it’s the same here in SG1 we don’t trade it unless a corrective pattern is clearly completed and this pattern is not, there can be a move down into 4090.

Technical Analysis Summary

The strong price move across the world on Friday, 13 July was actually on low volume and that’s why there was no follow through in the last session. The same applies today here in Australia. There is also no support from China. 
The current move up in the Indices, as you know, is being viewed as a corrective counter trend rally, an abc wave two, which can be completed now However, there is no evidence of a turn down in terms of price or pattern, so we have to wait, and the reason we have to wait, is because if the current rally turns into five waves (impulse) then we are going to get another five waves up, which means the S&P500 to 1400 and the DJI to 13000, so we have to wait for this part of the wave structure to complete. We aren’t going to miss anything as we can catch the up side or the downside. we just need the right pattern, level and volume to confirm the set up.

The commodities will simply follow stock.

Trading Quote

Sell stocks whenever the market is 30% higher over a year ago.— Eugene D. Brody (Oppenheimer Capital) 

Today's Financial Events (Australian Time AEST)

Time       Currency   Detail     Forecast    Previous
9:00am AUD        RBA Deputy Gov Lowe Speaks       
9:50am  JPY        Tertiary Industry Activity m/m    0.2% -0.3%   
9:50am  JPY        CGPI y/y    -0.9% -0.5%   
10:30am  AUD        Westpac Consumer Sentiment     0.3%   
11:30am  AUD        Home Loans m/m    0.8% 0.2%   
4:00pm  EUR        German Final CPI m/m    -0.1% -0.1%   
4:00pm  JPY        Prelim Machine Tool Orders y/y     -3.0%   
Tentative  EUR        German 10-y Bond Auction     1.52|1.4  
10:30pm  CAD        Trade Balance    -0.5B -0.4B   
10:30pm  USD        Trade Balance    -48.5B -50.1B   
12:00am  USD        Wholesale Inventories m/m    0.4% 0.6%   
12:30am  USD        Crude Oil Inventories    -1.4M -4.3M   
3:00am  USD        10-y Bond Auction     1.62|3.1  
4:00am  USD        FOMC Meeting Minutes 

NOTES: Prices may change as this Technical Analysis report is written from 3.30 - 6.30AM
Always think things out for yourself, we are only here to bounce ideas around.

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02  FOREX: AUDUSD – Latest Elliott Wave Analysis

AUDUSD 30 Minute Chart
Monday, 16 July 2012, 6:08:00PM AEST

Below are two intra-day counts I am tracking on AUDUSD; both bullish against 1.01.

AUDUSD 4 Hour Chart
Monday, 16 July 2012, 3:25:00PM AEST – wave B) done; now C)

A double zig-zag correction that we are tracking since early June is still incomplete. The reason is recent pull-back from 1.0320 which is clearly in three waves, followed by bullish reversal on Friday. This is very nice, clean signal for an uptrend continuation, now into wave C) of (Y) headed to 1.04.


 

AUDUSD Daily Chart
16 July 2012 – corrective wave D

Few weeks back AUDUSD moved well above 1.02 level and put bullish price action in back in play. We are now tracking a corrective price action from 0.9590 low which represents wave D; leg of a triangle that is incomplete. We expect more strenght in coming days within (Y), towards 1.0400.


 

AUDUSD Weekly Chart
May 28 2012 – flat in IV)

On Australian dollar we are still tracking a 3-wave corrective pattern from 2011 highs, called a flat correction. The reason is a substructure in both A and B legs, which was corrective. Well, a decline from the most recent swing high @1.08 is impulsive; sharp and big move in short period of time which suggests that pair is falling within wave C, final leg of a corrective wave IV). Ideally we will see a fall beneath 0.938 where market will bottom.

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03  SEE YOU AT THE SYDNEY TRADING EXPO – complimentary tickets are yours!

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