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01 Today's DayAhead Technical Analysis Report – 14 February
Market Drivers
Dow Jones 12,74 +0.57%
Base Metals Negative
US Gold CFD: 1718
Oil WTI: 100
US Copper CFD: 382
US Dollar: 79.00
EURUSD 1.32
AUDUSD 1.0745
Dow Jones CFD 12,873
S&P500 CFD: 1350
FTSE 100 CFD: 5910
DAX CFD: 6750
SPI CFD 4230
News
Most European and US stock markets ended higher Monday, amid investor relief after the Greek government early in the morning approved unpopular austerity measures
US Commodities
US Gold CFD: 1718
TradingLevels: As on the 4 hour Elliott Wave chart, if we are in a Wave 4) then the 1700 would roughly be the support for the end of Wave 4)
Elliott Wave: ABC Wave 4)appears to be completing, if this is correct then support on top of subgroup1 1730 is what we need to see, its from this support level that you can look for long trade set ups. If this support is not forthcoming then the price will be drawn to the closest largest number 1700, if so, we have to wait for the support pattern to develop then and then look at 1720 for support.
Silver
TradingLevels: IF the current pattern sitting above 33.00 is a Triangle then it should stay above 33.00 and move higher to 35.00
Elliott Wave: Wave four Triangle
Oil WTI: 100
TradingLevels: Support on 100 creates the long trade
Elliott Wave: The last move up from just below 98 to 100 is five small waves* (impulse pattern) so it will see a corrective abc across 100 before moving higher, the normal retracement is 61.8% around 98.50 but it may hold closer to 100 but expect 99.00, any ways once you can see the three swings in the abc completed and the price climbs back upon 100 as support then trade from there.*See Elliott Wave education
Base Metals
US Spot Prices (in l/b)
US Copper: Last: 3.80-
US Nickel: Last: 9.28-
US Zinc: Last: 0.93-
US Aluminium Last: 0.98-
US Copper CFD: 382
Technical Analysis:
The base metals CRB index is much the same pattern as the Shanghai, and the Shanghai level is the 2300 as support that is still developing.The short term is corrective the medium term is higher. This is the same for Copper and we can see it now reacting from the sellers at 400 MediumLevel (ML) 4. The move down needs time to unfold and eventually be corrective and abc corrective pattern. How far can it come down, should be taken one step at a time because its always important to observe the first move down to work out if its three waves or five waves. We do know that the support is Subgroup2* (SG2) so let’s just allow it to play out in 372 and see what the structure looks like then. US BHP is under 80 (TL8) as expected and AU BHP is reacting 38 (mTL8 Profit taking number 8) so it’s now about searching for support and this is the same for the ASX *See TradingLevels article
Forex
US Dollar: 79.00
Technical Analysis:
No matter the wave count the 79 in time will become the support or resistance so trade what you see. That said the move up from 78.50 area to 79.30 area appears to be three waves, corrective. This would confirm more downside
EURUSD 1.32
TradingLevels: Expect the price to bounce off 132.
Elliott Wave: Look for the next move up which need to be in line with US Indices
Trading Strategies: bounce off 132, then work lower than 132, then if the price then comes back above 132 look for support and trade long from 132 support, the test lower then climbing back above helps confirm the larger abc corrective pattern, that I will point out in the video. The SP500 developing support above 1350 is helpful
AUDUSD 1.0745
TradingLevels: SG2 1.0772 (72) is starting to have more weight
Elliott Wave: ABC as Wave 4) Current the price is working through Wave b) of (b) of B
Trading Strategies: While the price is in this ABC then trade smaller degree of structure that suit this pattern, that is getting 10, 20, 30 pips trading the SubLevels and MicroLevels
Indices
Dow Jones CFD 12,873
TradingLevels: Support on 12,900 creates the 13,000 target. Support on 12,772 and 12,800 are the main supports and while the price is above these levels the market is positive
Elliott Wave: The bias is to the upside above 12,900, while the price is between 12,800 and 12,900 the corrective pattern can expand further sideways. The move up last night from the last low around 12,750 appears to be an impulse wave, with the a small abc correction, based of this the bias is up
Trading Strategies: Support on the Midpoint 12850 and then SG2 with the 12872 as the supporting pivot creates the upside. Use SG2 as levels of support the 12872 must be a tested support, if this is the case then start to build the trade above 12880 then above the 12900 to 13,000.
S&P500 CFD: 1350
TradingLevels: As you can see the 1350 is playing out as the key level, so the 1350 as support or resistance creates the set up for being long or short
Elliott Wave: The move up from the last low appears to be impulsive, so further upside if support on the Midpoint 1350 can be established
Trading Strategies: allow the price to settle in to 1350 and work any trade from that level
FTSE 100 CFD: 5910
TradingLevels: Support on 5900 creates the upside
Elliott Wave: Wave four across 5900. 5838 last low has an impulse wave up to around the 5930 so a small abc correction at 5900 before moving higher
Trading Strategies: Long off the 5900 and subgroup1 5930
DAX CFD: 6750
TradingLevels: Expect corrective swings at SG2 6772 and more so at 6800
Elliott Wave: If the price can find support above 6772 then the weight is to the upside. While the 6772 is the resistance the sellers have the bias
Day Trading: Long off a developed support 6750 exit 6772 with the view to be long above SG2 6772 the resistance as support, the adding above 6800 as support
SPI CFD 4230
Technical Analysis
TradingLevels: The price is in SG2 4265|4727|4280 if this group can support the price then expect higher prices. The 4272 is the most important number as support
Elliott Wave: Positive impulse wave up last night, the same for the US indices and the Euro
Day Trading: The 4272 as support to create longs, with stops under the SG2 at 4263
Summary
The move down in US markets on Friday has found support and is displaying a small impulse wave up, so this lessens our concerns of a sharp selloff.
The current pattern should see the US and European markets with a new high, this new high will be making these markets extremely over bought, so be cautious.
Base metals are down overnight. The CRB index follows the Shanghai and the ASX is part of this picture. The ASX200 has been consolidating under the 4300 for a long time now, but I still reckon it’s corrective and will break higher as long as it stays above the 4200 – the MinorLevel pivot support.
Trading Quote
I learned to avoid trying to catch up or double up to recoup losses. I also learned that a certain amount of loss will affect your judgment, so you have to put some time between that loss and the next trade. – Richard Dennis
Today's Financial Events
Time Currency Detail Forecast / Previous
8:45am AUD RBA Assist Gov Debelle Speaks
8:45am NZD FPI m/m 0.2%
11:01am GBP RICS House Price Balance -14% / -16%
11:30am AUD NAB Business Confidence 3
14th-18th NZD REINZ HPI m/m -0.1%
1:45pm USD FOMC Member Williams Speaks
14th-19th CNY Foreign Direct Investment ytd/y 9.7%
Tentative JPY Monetary Policy Statement
Tentative JPY Overnight Call Rate <0.10% / <0.10%
3:30pm JPY Revised Industrial Production m/m 4.0% / 4.0%
Tentative JPY BOJ Press Conference
6:45pm EUR French Prelim Non-Farm Payrolls q/q 0.2% / 0.0%
8:30pm GBP CPI y/y 3.6% / 4.2%
8:30pm GBP RPI y/y 4.1% / 4.8%
8:30pm GBP Core CPI y/y 2.7% / 3.0%
8:30pm GBP DCLG HPI y/y -0.1% -0.3%
9:00pm EUR German ZEW Economic Sentiment -11.6 / -21.6
9:00pm EUR Industrial Production m/m -1.1% / -0.1%
9:00pm EUR ZEW Economic Sentiment -21.1 / -32.5
9:00pm GBP CB Leading Index m/m -0.6%
Tentative GBP BOE Inflation Letter
12:30am CAD New Motor Vehicle Sales m/m 0.5% / -1.0%
12:30am USD Core Retail Sales m/m 0.6% / -0.2%
12:30am USD Retail Sales m/m 0.8% / 0.1%
12:30am USD Import Prices m/m 0.3% / -0.1%
2:00am USD Business Inventories m/m 0.4% / 0.3%
2:00am USD Treasury Sec Geithner Speaks
NOTES:
1. Check the ASX Dividend & Reporting section in the Member area before trading.
2. Prices may change as this Technical Analysis report is written from 3.30 – 6.30AM
3. Always think things out for yourself, we are only here to bounce ideas around.
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02 FOREX: USDJPY – Latest Elliott Wave
USDJPY Intraday Chart
Monday, 13 February 2012 at 7:10:00PM AEST
We are monitoring an impulsive recovery on Usd/Jpy, now with wave (iv) in process, which could be very near completion and ready to send the prices higher, into a wave (v) of A towards 78.00. Invalidation level of current impulsive count is at 76.97. After a compelted five waves up in A, we will look for a three waves down in wave B.
USDJPY 4 Hour Chart
Monday, 13 February 2012 at 5:50:00PM AEST – wave E) underway
No change!
USDJPY is trading higher so we are still monitoring an incomplete wave E of (X) triangle. Currently we are keeping an eye on five waves up in A, and with B and C yet to come. Nice resistance/reversal area for wave E) comes in at 78-50-78.80 area.
USDJPY Daily Chart
12 February 2012 – wave E) of (X)
USDJPY reversed sharply higher in this past week, so we came out with an idea that wave (X) triangle is incomplete and that wave E) is still underway from 76.00 low. Wave E) is corrective leg, so it must be structure by three legs. So once we will have A-B-C in place we will look for a downtrend continuation. Meanwhile 79.50 must not be breached!
USDJPY Weekly Chart
30 July 2011 – ending diagonal near completion
USDJPY is still falling sharply, despite a significant rally seen in March 2011 when we thought that prices have reached a significant bottom. Well, now the price is trading very close to that March lows, so it really seems that we need to focus on current price action which is down and eyeing even lower levels. An updated count suggests that wave V) is still in progress, headed once again to lower support line of a wedge pattern.
Maximum lows for wave V) are around 69.50, otherwise a red wave III) will be the shortest and wave count wrong of course, since we know that wave three must never be the shortest wave when compared to waves one or five.
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