Technical Analysis Report Weekly
 

01  Today's DayAhead Technical Analysis Report: 12 June 2012»
02  International Commodity: Oil – Latest Elliott Wave»
03  With Our Reports in Your Hands, You're Ready!»

Hi Traders 

MARKETS FOLLOW EACH OTHER IN FEAR MODE, GET READY TO SHORT 

Once its completed they will continue down, so join us at the TradingLounge
and get ready to short the next leg down!

Best Rgds, Pete

PS. Ask me about your trading problems. Call 0434 288 367 or email me!
PPS. Read what our Members say

01 The Detail From Today's DayAhead Technical Analysis Report – 12 June

Market Drivers

Dow Jones 12,411 1.14%  (6.30:AM AEST)
Base Metals Negative
US Spot Gold 1596
US Silver 2860
Oil WTI 83
US Copper CFD 333
US Dollar 82.50
EURUSD 1.26
AUDUSD 0.99
Dow Jones CFD 12,472
S&P500 CFD 1315
FTSE 100 CFD 5400
DAX CFD 6100
Shanghai 2305
SPI CFD 4160

Commodities

US Spot Gold 1596
TradingLevels*: The supply (sellers) have moved down from SG1|1620 to 1600 and based off Elliott we can start to look for a short trade set up on a failed retest of 1600. If this is the case then the failed retest would be in its early stages with 1590 as tested resistance, this is where the first small position can go, with the aim of using SG2 1580|1572|1565. If you want to play it safe then simply use 1572 as the tested resistance for the short. The main point it to make sure you have confirmed that 1600 is retested on lower volume and you see increased volume to the down side with impulse wave structures. Support on 1600 will see higher testing of 1620 *»Watch video/read about the TradingLevels
Elliott Wave: The move up from 1555 to 1607 as Wave (ii) can be completed, this has been followed by five small waves down from 1607 to 1581 which can be the start of the next leg down as Wave (iii), a failed retest at 1600 would help this view along

US Silver 2860
TradingLevels: MinorLevel mTL8|28 when this becomes the retested resistance short or traders taking on more risk use the SG2 2872 then the Midpoint to short from. The long side, if 2872 becomes support trade long to 29, exit, wait for support on 29
Elliott Wave: In line with the gold count, Wave a down to 2820 area

Oil WTI 83
TradingLevels: Once 82 is resistance the price will be locked into 80 (TL8) because 82 is the pivot in Group1 83|82|81 we expected the price to bounce around in Group1 as it is and will continue to do. Longer term short trade can think of adding to short when 82 becomes the resistance, otherwise under 80 as the resistance
Elliott Wave: Wave (iv)  can be completed unless the triangle pattern is forming, however the price should stay below the 87 and Wave v) down is underway

Base Metals 

US Spot Prices (in l/b)
US Copper:           Last: 3.34-
US Nickel:             Last: 7.77+
US Zinc:                Last: 0.85-
US Aluminium       Last: 0.87-

US Copper CFD 333
The pattern sitting on 330 is corrective, therefore expect the price to move lower into Group1 320

Forex Trading 

US Dollar 82.50
TradingLevels:  Next resistance SG2 8272 followed by 8300
Elliott Wave: It’s a good idea to understand the ABC corrective pattern in the SP500, then relate that to the Euro, then the Dollar. The Dollar and the Euro are in Wave 4 corrections the SP500 is different, but it’s three swings ABC will relate to currencies.

EURUSD 1.26
TradingLevels: The price is in a corrective rally off the 123 with 128 as resistance and 125 as the balance line. The corrective pattern is nearly half way through the same as the SP500.
Elliott Wave*: The currencies seem to be ahead of the Indices in the ABC corrective pattern and they are slightly different patterns, however the first leg up in the Euro and S&P500 are completed and Wave B is underway, the Euro is leading this pattern. The Wave b down will be in three waves 5-3-5 structure a smaller abc, the first leg of the Wave B the Wave a is nearly completed into 125 the wave b will be across 125 with the wave c downwards towards 124, once this is completed then expect Wave C up in five smaller waves to 12650 12720 *See our tutorial on Elliott Wave Theory
Trading Strategies: The best short trade is when the ABC in completed on the SP500 and the Euro, in the meantime its bout trading within Wave B and C which in turn brings the trading into the sublevels.

AUDUSD 0.99
TradingLevels: The price made it to the finish line at 1.00 TL1 and is resting, after this reactive pattern at TL1 it will move higher
Elliott Wave: Wave A up completed and Wave B unfolding down in three waves in line with the SP500 and Euro. This is part of a the larger Wave (4) for the AUD, which is only half way through, so we are expecting further corrective waves from 97/98 to 1.00/102
Trading Strategies: the price is in the abc of Wave B it’s important to keep trading ranges shorter while in a corrective pattern, trade the sublevels, with the view of trading lower as the US indices start to trade lower in Wave B

Index Trading 

Dow Jones CFD 12,472
TradingLevels:  The ABC corrective rally is using the 12,500 as the balance line. The resistances are 12,800 on the first swing high and 13000 on the next.
Elliott Wave: The Wave A up is now completed and Wave B down in three swings abc is underway. Wave B in the text book works back to the 61.8% of Wave A roughly 12,300 / 12,727
Trading Strategies: You would be trading a Wave b down a 5-3-5 structure you would need to be able to count this and use the sublevels, the first move down (Wave a) of five waves should be to 12,400, the a three wave retest of 12,500 as Wave b the Wave c of B

S&P500 CFD 1315
TradingLevels: Wave A of the ABC  corrective pattern is completed and Wave B is underway, this Wave B will be made up of three smaller wave abc 5-3-5 structure, the price is currently near the end of the 5 waves of Wave a into 1300/1310. Once completed expect Wave b up in 3 waves 
Trading Strategies: The best trade is when the ABC corrective pattern is completed. If your going to trade the Wave C, just make sure you can count the structure of Wave B and Wave C.  Trading the Wave C will be in 5 waves up, so use the levels and look for the retesting on a level with the volume confirming the price action at the time.

FTSE 100 CFD 5400
TradingLevels: The move down from the last high 5567 to 5400 is an impulse wave (5 waves) once completed (5372 SG2 zone) expect an abc 5-3-5 rally (SG2 5472?) then another fives waves down, possibly to 5300. All of this is in line with the US indices as Wave B, which is part of the larger ABC corrective pattern 
Trading Strategies: The Wave (a) is nearly completed so you would be looking at the Wave (b) up in three waves next.

DAX CFD 6100
TradingLevels: Wave A up to 6300 is completed and in line with the US indices.  Wave B unfolding down in three waves abc, with the Wave a nearly completed at 6100 expect a bounce for Wave b, then wave c to complete the larger Wave B into 6000
Day Trading: The price is in the abc of B, trade the sublevels if you understand the wave count

Shanghai 2305
TradingLevels: The 2300 as support or resistance creates the next direction; this also requires time to develop. The current support is the SG2 2280|2272|2265 followed be the Midpoint 2250 consider, a breaking of these supports as weakness in China

SPI CFD 4160
TradingLevels: The pattern across 4100 is an ABC corrective pattern once competed should move higher. The price can test lower into 4030/20 that said the Midpoint is the next support.
Day Trading: The move down over night should find support soon in the 4050 – 4030 and then rally to 4100, this rally would be in line with the SP500. The 4100 is the resistance at the minor degree of Elliott and the levels. Long trades would need to use 4050, 4072, 4100 and 4130 as price point of support to work from. These price points would need to be tested and the volume to confirm accordingly.

Technical Analysis Summary

Most indices and currencies as you know, are unfolding in their ABC rallies.

We have been trying to work out the completion of the first leg up the Wave A, which we can now confirm as competed and Wave B is now unfolding in three smaller corrective waves (a)(b)(c) 5-3-5 structure.

The move down overnight was only the Wave (a) of Wave  B. This Wave (a) will be followed by Wave (b) upwards; Wave (b) is an even smaller abc 5-3-5 structure. Once this Wave (b) is completed then Wave (c) (5 waves down) will complete the Wave B, which should have retraced 61.8% of Wave A. This still leaves Wave C up to be completed which would also be in five waves, once this is completed we can go on a larger shorting campaign.

Trading Quote

You will always remember the trades that could have been and forget about the risks that were involved.

Today's Financial Events 

Time         Currency   Detail                                                  Forecast    Previous
9:01am     GBP            RICS House Price Balance                -17%            -19%   
9:50am     JPY            Tertiary Industry Activity m/m               0.4%          -0.6%   
9:50am     JPY             CGPI y/y                                             -0.3%          -0.2%   
10:00am   JPY             BOJ Gov Shirakawa Speaks       
11:30am   AUD            NAB Business Confidence                  4   
12th-14th  NZD            REINZ HPI m/m                                  -0.3%   
12th-14th  CNY            New Loans                                          700B           682B   
12th-14th  CNY            M2 Money Supply y/y                         12.9%          12.8%   
3:30pm      EUR           French Final Non-Farm Payrolls q/q    0.1%           0.1%   
3:45pm     CHF           SECO Economic Forecasts       
6:30pm     GBP           Manufacturing Production m/m             0.1%           0.9%   
6:30pm     GBP           Industrial Production m/m                     0.2%           -0.3%   
10:30pm   USD           Import Prices m/m                                -1.0%          -0.5%   
12:00am   GBP           NIESR GDP Estimate                           0.1%   
12:00am   USD          IBD/TIPP Economic Optimism              49.6             48.5   
4:00am    USD           Federal Budget Balance                      -107.2B        59.1B

NOTES: Prices may change as this Technical Analysis report is written from 3.30 - 6.30AM
Always think things out for yourself, we are only here to bounce ideas around

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02 International Commodity: Oil – Latest Elliott Wave

OIL 1 Hour Chart
Tuesday, 12 June 2012 at 12:20:00AM AEST

Crude oil is making some huge swings since start of June, so we are tracking a triangle now as price did not move beyond 87 mark.

OIL 4 Hour Chart
Monday, 11 June 2012 at 5:05:00PM AEST – wave (iv) back in progress

After Sundays bullish gap we see wave (iv) as incomplete. Price may test 88.00 region before impulsive sell-off occurs. But important is that recovery from 81.20 is corrective wave four and that larger downtrend should resume, and send prices below $80 per barrel, its just a matter of time.

Any overlap with 89.15 mark will not change our prediction; we will just change blue wave (iv) into black wave 4.

OIL Daily Chart
10 June 2012 – wave 3 fall

On crude we have seen a very sharp aggressive fall in short period of time. That's clearly an impulsive personality so we know that market will make a five wave fall from $110. Currently, that's wave 3 from $106.60 swing, but we are ready for wave 4 bounce, which will offer a new opportunity for another sell-off. Support for wave 3 comes in at $79-81.

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