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Elliott Wave - USDJPY 

The Trade

Date of Entry: 18 July 2012  

Analysis: Elliott Wave

Profit Targets: 

The Post 1: The Technical Side

18 March 2011
USDJPY Weekly Chart – ending diagonal finished


After an extended bullish waves on Usd/Jpy seen in the past few weeks, we decided to check developments on the weekly time frame. Well, we can see that price is now accelerating significantly after trend-line beak, connected from 2008. We need to respect what the market price is actually doing, and if we also consider a larger Elliott Wave pattern called an ending diagonal, then we may have seen a long-term low on Usd/Jpy around 75.70.

Our minimum expectations for that pair is a recovery to 61.8% retracement area; above wave X swing.

The Post 2: The Technical Side

30 July 2011
USDJPY Weekly Chart  – ending diagonal near completion
USDJPY is still falling sharply, despite a significant rally seen in March 2011 when we thought that prices have reached a significant bottom. Well, now the price is trading very close to that March lows, so it really seems that we need to focus on current price action which is down and eyeing even lower levels. 
An updated count suggests that wave V) is still in progress, headed once again to lower support line of a wedge pattern.

Maximum lows for wave V) are around 69.50, otherwise a red wave III) will be the shortest and wave count wrong of course, since we know that wave three must never be the shortest wave when compared to waves one or five.

The Charts

18 March:



30 July 2011:

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