Trading Blog

EarlyBird Report 730AM - Shares CFD Forex Report

info@tradinglounge.com.au (Administrator ) — Tue, 28 Jun 2011 23:20:41 GMT

EarlyBird Report – 29 June

Dow Jones Index +1.21% 12,188
US Dollar Index -0.31% 75.04
US August Gold (Globex) 1500
WTI Oil (Globex) 92.80
Copper (Globex) 410
US BHP +2.22% 91.26
Base Metals: Positive
AUDUSD 1.0540
EURUSD 1.4370
SPI 4520

US News Wire
U.S. The energy and consumer-discretionary sectors led U.S. stocks higher following reports of progress in European leaders' Greek-debt negotiations.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average rose 120 points, or 1%, to 12164 in afternoon trade, with Caterpillar rising 3% and Home Depot adding 2.4%. The Standard & Poor's 500-stock index gained 13 points, or 1%, to 1293. The technology-oriented Nasdaq Composite rose 32 points, or 1.1%, to 2720.

Investors bet on a better turn in the Greek-debt crisis after France's plan for helping to resolve the country's debt problems got a favourable response from German banking associations. The French plan, which aims to orchestrate the orderly participation of private creditors, would have banks reinvest half the proceeds from maturing bonds into 30-year bonds. Stocks have risen and fallen for weeks on news about Greece.

Commodities

US August Gold Futures 1500
No real change here, we expected a corrective pattern at 1500 and its still unfolding, we have changed the Elliott labelling, to a Wave 4 at 1500, this would see a eventually see a move to SG2 1472 and then a retest back to 1500.
Wave fours as you know can be tricky they can be the most complicated, so wait for a clear price resistance to occur at this MediumLevel 1500 before shorting, I say this because the Dow is above 12,000.
Silver is doing much the same at the Fibo 34 level as mentioned before

Oil WTI (Globex Futures) 92.90
The bounce in Oil has finally started, ignited be the rise in stock, this is also seen in base metals. 91 I 92 I 93 are MinorGroup1 (MG1) if the price can develop support on top of MG1/ 93 then it can go to 95 (mTL5) MinorLevel.
The Elliott count is seeing this as a corrective rally, on our charts as a wave four, but as a trader, trade the levels, it’s how you can control the trade.

Base Metals

US Spot Prices (24HR in l/b)
US Copper:           Last: 4.09+
US Nickel:             Last: 10.22+
US Zinc:                Last: 1.01+
US Aluminium       Last: 1.11+

Copper (Globex Futures) 407
You know I like the Copper market, as it firmly integrated into many aspects of life and therefor a good guide stick, without it trending it’s hard to confirm other market trends, such as the AUDUSD going down when Copper is above the MediumLevel ML4, and the obvious local Materials sector which includes US BHP at 90 (ML9) Being above ML4 /400 the market is supported and sure it’s a long way off being support above 430 top of group1 but for now being above 400 is a stabiliser and why we locked in 50% in our ASX BHP short trade at 42.

Forex

US Dollar Futures (c) DXY 76.10
The short term for the Dollar and the Euro have a few interpretations, so it would be far better to use the price and the 144 for the Euro as support and resistance and the 75 for the DXY, we now have to give them time to play out at these levels and pick up the trade from here long or short based off S/R
The DXY would need to get back above 7572 as a sign of further strength.

EURUSD

TradingLevels: Back at 144, thee is not a lot to say here, as it will simply fail here or find support, so patience is require
Trade Strategy: no position trading just trading the sublevels, which can be used to glean a larger position.
The price nearly reached 144 and reacted, it’s looking for support… if it traded back above SG2 14372 then trade it to 144

AUDUSD

TradingLevels: Above the level 105 and the bias in positive, the structure of the move up can be corrective or impulse, this aspect requires more time to develop, however the actual internal trends and corrections are expanding in size, this is momentum from volume interest
Elliott Wave: The last two trends down (see chart today) have equality, this is more of a corrective element, so upside potential looms. The 105 is the critical price for support for this to occur.
Trade Strategy: Trade the sublevels

Indices

Dow Jones Futures CFD 12,180

TradingLevels:
The price above our 12000 pivot and above the 12100 flips the bias to the upside, which would be in line with the Shanghai Markets rally.
Elliott Wave: The structure of the move up is currently corrective (three waves) but this can develop into a positive impulse (five waves) time is required.
Trade Strategy: Every 100 points is important to the Dow so the 12,200 will meet resistance, it’s also an old high and can fail from this point, we have to expect a reaction at least from here or a sideway correction across it

S&P500 CFDs 1,280

TradingLevels: Retesting 1300 expect a reaction. While it’s under this level we have to treat it as corrective. Let’s wait to see if the market finds support or resistance here before over reacting
Elliott Wave: While the price is above the 1272 its short term positive but now its close to 1300 we just have to allow the corrective structure play out
Trade Strategy: wait

FTSE 100 Futures 5750

TradingLevels: Resistance 5800 Support 5772 SG2 requires retesting to confirm
Elliott Wave: The short term trend yesterday was bullish and now the larger trend is bullish because it made a new high, it still has to work through the 5800 mTL8, so expect a ABC correction pattern across it. The mTL8 is a profit taking number so it can fail here, so there is a lot of important on the pattern created at 5800
Trade Strategy: observe the corrective or sell off pattern at 5800

SPI Futures 4471

TradingLevels: Above 4500 is positive and a rally can emerge from here. The Copper market and the Shanghai market we talked about on Monday were the stabilising factors, and yesterday the Dow being above 12000 is the other. The Shanghai is the safe bet to say it will rise further, whereas the Dow is uncertain every 100 points is a test. And while the SP500 has 1300 as resistance there is risk.
Trade Strategy: long above 4500 stops under

Summary

Our short term thinking yesterday was that the rallies were just that rallies and they still can be for the US Indices and we were expecting Oil and Gold to rally, we see this as still the case for these markets. If the SP500 found a robust support on top of 1300 then a more positive bias would form.

Where the strength does come from in my view is Copper, it was the only market not going down and the first sign of strength came from the Shanghai (should correct at 2800) and Shenzhen mentioned on Monday as it have the first five waves up off its lows.
The other was our local SPI as we also talked Monday and Tuesday about its first five waves up and how yesterday the SPI maintain its higher low whereas the ASX200 created the new low, these were the first signs of strength, the other was US BHP having five wave down from 100 to just below 90, which now is completed by the move up last night

Another confirming aspect is the AUD being back above 105, but what makes this interesting as a positive is that the last two trends down were equal this is a corrective element not an impulse element, this also lines up with copper

The rally in the SP500 can be a wave 4, but if it finds support above 1300 then we can flip the bias to the upside and this would be fine with the Euro count, but as the SP500 wrestles with 1300 the Euro will dance with the Fibo 144.

So what to do with our trades; the first rule of trading is to protect the asset. Opinions can get us into loss with having rules, trade rules and risk management rules, it’s our job to track and trade the markets not hold on our opinions, if the direction changes three times I would rather go with that, take the small losses and be on the right side of the market if it going to trend.
That said, many of the short trades we have are loaded with selling pressure so they are fine, we don’t know if the SP500 will fail at 1300 or that the ASX200 will find support on 4500, it’s still early days. It doesn’t hurt to lock in some profits on some of the short trades.

At the end of the day the 4500 is the line in the sand and being above or below this swings the bias of the market, we know the markets are over sold, but we don’t know the extended of any rally that does take place. But we have to make some effort to move with the bias.

Trading Quote
"To change emotional responses takes constant self-awareness, time, fundamental personal honesty, and the willingness to suffer the pain of letting something go that we feel is dear to us."

Traders, we would like to inform you that content (Charts) published on FOREX GOLD SP500 OIL will not be updated from Friday July 1st till July 15th 2011. The EarlyBird will do its best to cover these until the 15^th July.

Today's Financial Events
Time    Currency   Detail     Forecast    Previous

9:50am JPY     Prelim Industrial Production m/m    5.6% 1.6%
All Day EUR     Italian Bank Holiday
6:30pm GBP     Net Lending to Individuals m/m    1.2B 1.2B
6:30pm GBP     Index of Services 3m/3m    0.7% 0.9%
6:30pm GBP     M4 Money Supply m/m    0.3% 0.1%
6:30pm GBP     Mortgage Approvals    46K 45K
7:30pm CHF     KOF Economic Barometer    2.23 2.30
9:00pm CAD     Core CPI m/m    0.2% 0.2%
9:00pm CAD     CPI m/m    0.3% 0.3%
12:00am USD     Pending Home Sales m/m    1.3% -11.6%
12:30am USD     Crude Oil Inventories     -1.7M
2:00am USD     FOMC Member Raskin Speaks

NOTES:
1. Check the Dividend & Reporting section for your stock on this site before trading
2. Prices may change as this report is written while markets are closing/trading
3. Always think things out for yourself, we are only here to bounce ideas around.

Good Morning & Good Luck!

EarlyBird Report 730AM - Shares CFD Forex Report

Trading Quote

info@tradinglounge.com.au (Administrator ) — Thu, 30 Jun 2011 01:43:07 GMT

Trading Quote

I learned that the markets offer the trader an opportunity to profit from price movement, and these opportunities are basically in perpetual motion. It is an environment where the individual has the freedom to create his own results, unimpeded by many of the constraints that exist in everyday social life. These never ending opportunities make the market a perfect mirror of the trader's attitude. What the trader sees in that movement and what he can do about it the markets have no control over. All the choices and all the power to turn these choices into experience reside in the mind of each trader.----The Disciplined Trader,Mark Douglas

CFD Trading Report - Gold Elliott Wave

info@tradinglounge.com.au (Administrator ) — Fri, 01 Jul 2011 01:26:49 GMT

CFD Trading Report - Gold Elliott Wave

Gold 4 Hour Chart
Thursday, 30 June 2011 at 5:10:00PM AEST

-change in trend...

A bearish reversal that occurred in the past week, looks extremely sharp, a move that should be part of some larger downtrend. In fact, prices also moved below the trend line connected from May lows, which is another strong evidence of a coming weakness. As such, even deeper levels are now in view, as a previous support line should now react as a resistance.

CFD Trading Report - Gold Elliott Wave

CFD Report

info@tradinglounge.com.au (Peter ) — Mon, 04 Jul 2011 23:43:43 GMT

CFD Report - part of the EarlyBird Report 7.30AM

Summary

The US markets and the European markets are trading quite close to their last highs, they have not had a correction on the way up, so it’s only logical to assume they will run into profit taking over the next few sessions. If they were going to fail it would be from these old highs and you need to build this risk into your won strategy, perhaps by locking in some profits if you are a short term trader.

The ASX200 and the Shanghai markets are doing much the same, after today they would have developed there first set of five waves up (impulse wave) once completed they will have and abc correction, this abc correction would likely take out stops, so it’s worth scratching your head for a little thought. Because we now have these five waves up, we will get another five waves up, well after the abc correction, so the medium term is looking good for us Asians.

So as the US and European markets face their old highs we would be facing the abc correction.
Our AUDUSD is touching on 108 the profit taking level and will be having its abc when our ASX200 has its abc, but I expect the AUD to eventually make new highs above 110, the main point in mentioning this is that it is a lot of money flowing into the country, the fifth largest trade currency with Australia only having 1% of global GDP is a mighty effort, anyway this will help the local market, the other part of the mix is the base metals and Copper will remain steady at 430.

So the only element to navigate is a pullback Wed / Thursday, so the logical thing to do here, is lock in some profits and the proactive to look for a few weak markets to short such as HVN.
Just another point, if the AUD is going to climb which companies would benefit from this and which would not?

CFD Report

ASX Stock Report

info@tradinglounge.com.au (Administrator ) — Tue, 05 Jul 2011 23:25:53 GMT

ASX STOCK REPORT

6 July 730AM

Dow Jones Futures CFD 12,560

TradingLevels:
The price is stalling but not failing at 12600, our guess was to see the price back at 12500 checking for support, if the price finds 12550 as resistance then it will. In many cases after a US holiday they come back with gusto pushing the price up, but not in this case.
The basic premise is the price is above 12500 so the bias is a positive market.
Elliott Wave: If the price can stay above 12550 the pattern from last night is a small abc correction. So the 12550 is a small line in the sand that will dictate a larger move
Trade Strategy: short under 12550 as resistance and long above, however give it time to settle into this number as support or resistance, the price should continue to swing into it as the balance line. The price is also still in the Channel up, so a move back to 12550 would break the price out of that channel, so it’s positive while it’s in it.

S&P500 CFDs 1,339

TradingLevels:
While the price is above 1330 its positive and the bias is up. A move under 1320 is weakness.
There appears to be reoccurring patterns developing, which you can see on the 30 minute chart, they are the sideways patterns which are growing in size, this is a healthy element for the upside, they would be a series of fourth waves as wave twos are normal sharp, so this does tell us that the top of at least this trend is ending, there may be a push to 1350
Elliott Wave: The trend up is in the later stages
Trade Strategy:

FTSE 100 Futures 6020

TradingLevels: Same - ABC pattern to unfold across 6000 with support SG2 5972
Elliott Wave: The trend up is now out of its channel, so a correction is starting into 6000, be a little carful here as ranges will be short and choppy best to trade another market. If the 6030 top of SG1 finds support then trade up
Trade Strategy: above 6030 long, under this no trade

SPI Futures 4550

TradingLevels: The current high 4640+ is either the top of the ABC correction or the top of wave three, with the current pull back wave four, therefor if the price can climb above 4600 then trade long, we can talk about this in the video.
Trade Strategy: Long above 4600

ASX Stock Report part of the EarlyBird Report

CFD Trading Report

info@tradinglounge.com.au (Administrator ) — Thu, 07 Jul 2011 04:46:55 GMT

CFD Trading Robo System Results

Origional Bank is	$30,000	= $10,000 for each category
Results	Total	Apr	May	June
Daily	$5,646	-1,551.93	2,684.52	4,513.89
Daily Robo CBA	$3,157	1,184.21	2,272.63	-300.00
Weekly	$8,283	7,028.47	-1,224.31	2,479.30
Total Profit	$17,087	6,660.75	3,732.84	6,693.19
%YTD	56.96%	22.20%	12.44%	22.31%

ASX200 Elliott Wave Chart

info@tradinglounge.com.au (Administrator ) — Sun, 10 Jul 2011 22:14:35 GMT

ASX200 Elliott Wave Chart

ASX CFD Trading Report

info@tradinglounge.com.au (Administrator ) — Mon, 11 Jul 2011 23:05:01 GMT

ASX CFD TRADING REPORT
ROBO WEEKLY

PENDING POSITIONS	CODE	DATE	LONG/SHORT	ENTRY	STOP

	WBC	12-Jul	SHORT	21.57	22.13
	SUN	12-Jul	SHORT	8.92	8.13
	PDN	12-Jul	SHORT	2.56	2.73


OPEN POSITIONS	CODE	DATE	LONG/SHORT	ENTRY	STOP	ACTION
Profit Targets
	BSL	11-Jul	SHORT	1.32	1.43
30% 2.90	ABC	7-Jul	SHORT	297	3.01
30% 2.70	AAX	7-Jul	SHORT	2.79	2.76

CFD Trading Report

TRADING REPORT

info@tradinglounge.com.au (Administrator ) — Mon, 11 Jul 2011 23:06:54 GMT

TRADING REPORT

EarlyBird Report – 12 July

Dow Jones Index -1.20% 12,505
US Dollar Index +1.28% 75.98
US August Gold (Globex) 1553
WTI Oil (Globex) 95
Copper (Globex) 435
US BHP -2.72% 93.23
Base Metals: Softer
AUDUSD 1.0755
EURUSD 1.4260
SPI 4500
ASX200 4582

Traders, we would like to inform you that content (Charts) published on FOREX GOLD SP500 OIL will not be updated from Friday July 1st to the July 15th 2011.

US News Wire
Stocks were routed Monday as investors worried that Europe's debt crisis is spiraling out of control, threatening to engulf larger nations like Italy and Spain and create a wider crisis for global markets

Commodities

US Gold Futures 1552
Expect a corrective pattern at 1550, after three swings we can understand if the pattern is corrective abc if so then it will push higher. It is an old high so it will struggle here and can fail here. It is move opposite to stock, however the headwind in the US Dollar as it also pushes up, having these two move together is not the norm, one will give…The 1330 correction is the volume support for stops, but suggest locking in some at 1550 until we can see what the pattern is at 1550

Oil WTI (Globex Futures) 95
Five waves down from the last high to 95, we should see a small abc across or up off 95 then another five waves down, following stock.

Base Metals

US Spot Prices (24HR in l/b)
US Copper:           Last: 4.31-
US Nickel:             Last: 10.42-
US Zinc:                Last: 1.03-
US Aluminium       Last: 1.10-

Copper (Globex Futures) 435
The move down is likely a wave (iv) and the retracement target is 38.2% around 430 the top of subgroup1 (SG1) if it does extend further then 425 is acceptable but under 420 then there is something wrong and a larger bearish pattern would be unfolding. This current correction down is in line with the Shanghai and the ASX etc once this wave (iv) is completed we are looking for a push higher. The catalyst for failure here is a strong US Dollar or rather a weaker Euro, the markets will come to a cross roads shortly as US stocks and US Dollar battle it out for the larger direction

Forex

US Dollar Futures (c) DXY 75.40
On the actual Index the 7650 is the important level as support or resistance, even though there is the Pennant pattern on the daily chart, which is also a series of waves ones and twos in Elliott terms and is breaking to the upside, the sublevel 7650 (65) is an important mile stone in the trend up. So the Euro is the mirror opposite and we have been chatting about it breaking lower within our trend channel through the 140 which it has done and still has lower to go, the daily or weekly Robo was also mentioned a week ago as a good tool for the longer term traders

EURUSD

TradingLevels: The speed of the wave structure down is wave three personality.
Once the price is firmly under 140 we can look at 138 and 13772 for the lows of the wave three. But please understand the size of this trend, the 130 is also in reach
Trade Strategy: Daily and weekly Robo. The price locking under 140 from any retest is the best bet other wise 139. But the trade is short from under 144 with the weekly Robo as the guide stick and use the daily to add and subtract contracts

AUDUSD

TradingLevels: While the 108 (mTL8) and 10722 are in place the bias is bearish
Elliott Wave: The 61.8% retracement is down around the 10550
Trade Strategy: If you are short from the 10750 then look to the 4 hr, Daily and Weekly Robo and a glass of red so you don’t get emotional

Indices

Dow Jones Futures CFD 12,500

TradingLevels:
The target down was the 38.2% which is 12400 but I mentioned a move down to 12500 as it was the first level and we are there now, It appears it can go lower.
The 12500 is a line in the sand and there does appear to be five waves down to 12500, meaning there should now be three waves up, an abc 5-3-5 correction, but we should strongly consider the 38.2% at 12400. It will be about the 12500 as support or resistance, so work this level
Elliott Wave: Looking for five waves down to 12400 or 12500 then and abc rally then another five wave down
Trade Strategy: just observe the 12500 as S/R and work any trade from this price point

S&P500 CFDs 1,320

TradingLevels:
The Dow at 12500 is the same as 1320 for the SP500 roughly the 38.2% retracement level.
The move down can also be seen as an abc correction, three swings down, either way we should see short term support at 1320
Trade Strategy:

FTSE 100 Futures 5900

TradingLevels: Like the Dow and SP500 the move down to 5900 is in three waves so it can be a ABC correction but it can also develop into five waves? We just have to wait and see.
Elliott Wave: If it is going to be five waves down then the wave four rally up off 5900 would be 38.2% 5950 But we can also expect a wave one up if the whole last move down was an ABC correction , its just too early to say
Trade Strategy:

SPI Futures 4500

TradingLevels: Expect the cash XJO to drag the SPI under 4500
Elliott Wave: The 61.8% retracement level down is very close to the 4500, it would only be natural to see a bounce off here, however the opening of the cash market would drive the price lower.
Trade Strategy: The low at 4500 the 618% retracement level, has seen three waves down to that point, the opening of the cash can see it lower and also the other Asian markets can take it lower, keep an eye on the Dow Futures during the day and look for support in BHP

Summary

The Strong US dollar or more so the weak Euro is playing a strong part in this correction, the Euro is expected to move lower, and it’s the norm for the Euro and SP500 to move together, so be aware of this.
The wave count down in all indices overnight is the same, they are currently three waves down which can be called and Elliott ABC correction, many of them have reached there Fibo retracement level and other are close. The point is that as an ABC correction they have their lows in place, but the three waves can easily turn into five waves (impulse) if we get five waves it opens either a larger corrective pattern or a larger five waves down. We knew we would be going through this juncture and there’s not a lot we can do about it, except trade less and build small trades into the direction is case the direction expands.
We have done a good job explaining this correction before it occurred and have scaled out of long positions to lighten the exposure and even placed a few shorts. However this next step is important, we simply need to know if we are going to get 3 waves down or 5 waves down and we won’t know until tomorrow or even the following day, so understand any trades placed today would be at risk of being stopped out the following day, so taking part profits is always a good thing.

So 3 waves means up side and 5 waves means more down side….

Trading Quote
"If you don't get what you want, it's a sign either that you did not seriously want it, or that you tried to bargain over the price." --Rudyard Kipling

“A doctor goes to medical school for four years before practicing medicine; a lawyer goes to law school for three years before beginning the practice of law; why then does a sufficient amount of money with which to trade qualify an unschooled individual to be a trader?” W.D. Gann

Traders, we would like to inform you that content (Charts) published on FOREX GOLD SP500 OIL will not be updated from Friday July 1st till July 15th 2011. The EarlyBird will do its best to cover these until the 15^th July.

Today's Financial Events
Time     Currency   Detail     Forecast    Previous

12th-13th NZD        REINZ HPI m/m     -1.8%
9:01am GBP        BRC Retail Sales Monitor y/y     -2.1%
9:01am GBP        RICS House Price Balance    -24% -28%
9:50am JPY        Tertiary Industry Activity m/m    0.8% 2.6%
9:50am JPY        CGPI y/y    2.4% 2.2%
11:30am AUD        NAB Business Confidence     6
12th-16th CNY        Foreign Direct Investment ytd/y     23.4%
Tentative JPY        Monetary Policy Statement
Tentative JPY        Overnight Call Rate    <0.10% <0.10%
3:30pm EUR        French CPI m/m    0.1% 0.1%
4:00pm EUR        German Final CPI m/m    0.1% 0.1%
Tentative JPY        BOJ Press Conference
5:30pm GBP        MPC Member Bean Speaks
All Day EUR        ECOFIN Meetings
6:30pm GBP        CPI y/y    4.5% 4.5%
6:30pm GBP        DCLG HPI y/y    -0.2% -0.3%
6:30pm GBP        RPI y/y    5.2% 5.2%
6:30pm GBP        Trade Balance    -7.3B -7.4B
6:30pm GBP        Core CPI y/y    3.4% 3.3%
7:00pm GBP        CB Leading Index m/m     0.4%
10:30pm CAD        Trade Balance    -0.8B -0.9B
10:30pm USD        Trade Balance    -44.1B -43.7B
12:00am USD        IBD/TIPP Economic Optimism    45.7 44.6
4:00am USD        FOMC Meeting Minutes

NOTES:
1. Check the Dividend & Reporting section for your stock on this site before trading
2. Prices may change as this report is written while markets are closing/trading
3. Always think things out for yourself, we are only here to bounce ideas around.

Good Morning & Good Luck!

TRADING REPORT

CFD Copper Report

info@tradinglounge.com.au (Administrator ) — Wed, 13 Jul 2011 19:23:16 GMT

14 July
CFD Copper Report

Copper (Globex Futures) 435
Staying with a wave four correction as long as the price stays above the 430 – 425. Basic correctional patterns are in three swings, copper is entering the third now, however wave fours are the most complicated, that is triangle, double zigzags… so we don’t trade them unless we know for sure, but towards the end of them we can take positions, as the larger the correction the safe the next trend up , as a larger correction and especially sideways corrections that wave fours normally are, are solid foundations (accumulation of buyers) for a solid trend, but the wave five trend will have less volume than the third previous wave, this is why you know the wave five will create a larger top, based on the flow of volume, after all it’s the volume that creates the price

STOCK REPORT

info@tradinglounge.com.au (Administrator ) — Sun, 17 Jul 2011 21:09:03 GMT

STOCK REPORT
EarlyBird Report - video's not included

EarlyBird Report – 15 July

Dow Jones Index -0.44% 12,437
US Dollar Index +0.44% 75.28
US August Gold (Globex) 1585
WTI Oil (Globex) 9550
Copper (Globex) 436
US BHP -1.88% 92.27
Base Metals: Steady
AUDUSD 1.07
EURUSD 1.4130
SPI 4550
ASX200 4490

Traders, we would like to inform you that content (Charts) published on FOREX GOLD SP500 OIL will not be updated from Friday July 1st to the July 15th 2011.

US News Wire
U.S. stocks weaved between gains and losses Thursday afternoon after Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke deflated investors' stimulus hopes and an apparent breakthrough in Washington's debt negotiations failed to draw more bullish traders into the market.

Commodities

US Gold Futures 1590
Even though Gold is up, you can see on the 30 minute chart the pattern is struggling under the 1600, partly because of the 1600 price and partly because of the US Dollar bouncing of 75. In the short term expect further resistance here at 1600 and a reaction, any profits should be locked in until 1600 proves itself as support or not. Support SG2 1580

Oil WTI (Globex Futures) 95
The Oil is just following stock and it to would be under selling pressure, keep stops as high as possible, any secondary positions would have to see 95 as the retested resistance.
The pattern up from 90 to 1000 can also be seen as an positive impulse wave, a move down into the 92 are would eliminate that pattern, over the three days or sooner depending on the speed of the price we can give certainty to the larger direction, as in the bigger picture the price can be finally letting go of 100 in this final failing retest in line with stock?

Base Metals

US Spot Prices (24HR in l/b)
US Copper:           Last: 4.36-
US Nickel:             Last: 10.87+
US Zinc:                Last: 1.05+
US Aluminium       Last: 1.11=

Copper (Globex Futures) 436
Same, above 340 and base metals are stable. The pattern above 430 is being considered a wave four, in a minimum of three legs and once competed a new high, however this current third leg can and should test 433

Forex

US Dollar Futures (c) DXY 7560
The reaction at 75 appears to be a trend changer, which is about right as mentioned yesterday, with the euro also pulling back the 618% around 143, any short term trading can be in the new direction. This would also line up with stock SP500…

EURUSD

TradingLevels: That should be the ABC correctional rally up completed into 143
Trade Strategy: Look for short trade set ups, retesting resistance at sublevels but more likely the 141. If and once the 140 is resistance then the larger trend is down, as the 14050 price point would create over lapping wave structures.
I need to point that the current move down can also be a wave 4 to 141, with a wave five up, under 141 would remove this, it would be a good idea to also work with the US Dollar in its rally through SG2 7572 (65,72,80) as a guide and the 141 as resistance on the Euro just to get this right

AUDUSD

TradingLevels: The wave four mentioned in the Euro is the same here for the AUD however it’s a stronger case here for the AUD, its really with a price move under the 10650 that would start to rule this wave four out, much the same as I was talking about yesterday in the video
Elliott Wave: yesterday and last night pattern edging down a wave four, it would be very help if it stayed on 107 as support a short term spike down is also find in SG2 but under that is not a good look for the wave four and a more bearish view would need to be viewed. That said it would also be good to line up the Dow count the 12400 wave four also
Trade Strategy: Give it time at 107 to build as support or resistance and use the SG1 above or SG2 below as triggers to add

Indices

Dow Jones Futures CFD 12,450

TradingLevels:
The 12500 is the line in the sand. Short term bias is down
Elliott Wave: Not a lot of change here, we are looking for the move to 12400, firstly as the ABC correction, a move beyond this simply opens the next degree of wave count into a more bearish picture
Trade Strategy: Same - Sell rally retests a levels

S&P500 CFDs 1,310

TradingLevels:
1300 mTl3 is the line in the sand, the support ranges from 1260 to 1300.
Trade Strategy: Same - Use each sublevel as support or resistance to trade long or short from but exit at each sublevel and wait for support or resistance to be tested. Expecting further selling pressure

FTSE 100 Futures 5860

TradingLevels: 5800 mTL8 will offer the support and a bounce the supply starts to thicken at 5850. If the price found 5800 as resistance then look for longer term short.
Elliott Wave: Just looking a possibility here and this is also true for the other indices. The move up from 5800 to 5900 we called and abc, but what about if that was just the abc for Wave A and the current move down a Wave B, with a Wave C up to go, we need to put this on the table until proven otherwise, a move under 5772 would do that. So if there was a move up as Wave C it would be in five waves back to 5900
Trade Strategy: 5800 as support or resistance, use the sublevels either side to build the trade

SPI Futures 4450

TradingLevels: The 4500 is the line in the sand, with the bias to the downside
Elliott Wave: Two possible counts I will explain in the video
Trade Strategy: If your scalping, (2 minute robo first 9 minutes, then 4 minute bar to 10.15am for the squeeze and or covering the gap) risking 3 to get 7 so to speak, then the direction doesn’t matter, if you’re looking for direction use the 4550 as retested support or resistance

Summary

Dow Jones approaching cross roads, either the 38.2% wave four pull back to 12400 then up for wave five or under the 12400 as resistance opening the next larger degree of bearishness. That’s the bottom line.
This would show up on the ASX 200 / SPI as the price either being above 4500 or below, its that simple, the tricky bit is which way do we position ourselves what when and how as they say. Well you have to choose a side a lay down the risk, the bet and if correct build on that and if wrong be flexible and change directions. We have started to build to the bearish side and this is because of the banks leading the way, copper is still holding up the base metals and many stocks have good bullish patterns as pointed out in the TradingLevels section yesterday, not as trades but a watch list if the 4500 becomes support.

The Forex Elliott Wave will be in full swing by Monday and a new ASX Elliott Wave section for charts is being developed

Trading Quote
“Any effort that has self-glorification as its final endpoint is bound to end in disaster. When you try to climb a mountain to prove how big you are, you almost never make it. And even if you do it’s a hollow victory. In order to sustain the victory you have to prove yourself again and again in some other way, and again and again and again, driven forever to fill a false image, haunted by the fear that the image is not true and someone will find out. That’s never the way.”

Traders, we would like to inform you that content (Charts) published on FOREX GOLD SP500 OIL will not be updated from Friday July 1st till July 15th 2011. The EarlyBird will do its best to cover these until the 15^th July.

Today's Financial Events
Time     Currency   Detail     Forecast    Previous

9:50am JPY        Monetary Policy Meeting Minutes
15th-16th CNY        Foreign Direct Investment ytd/y     23.4%
6:00pm EUR        Italian Trade Balance    -2.97B -3.76B
7:00pm EUR        Trade Balance    -3.2B -2.9B
10:30pm CAD        Manufacturing Sales m/m    -0.3% -1.3%
10:30pm USD        Core CPI m/m    0.2% 0.3%
10:30pm USD        CPI m/m    -0.1% 0.2%
10:30pm USD        Empire State Manufacturing Index    4.5 -7.8
11:15pm USD        Capacity Utilization Rate    77.1% 76.7%
11:15pm USD        Industrial Production m/m    0.4% 0.1%
11:55pm USD        Prelim UoM Consumer Sentiment    72.5 71.5
11:55pm USD        Prelim UoM Inflation Expectations     3.8%
Tentative EUR        Bank Stress Test Results
3:10am GBP        MPC Member Tucker Speaks Bulletin

NOTES:
1. Check the Dividend & Reporting section for your stock on this site before trading
2. Prices may change as this report is written while markets are closing/trading
3. Always think things out for yourself, we are only here to bounce ideas around.

Good Morning & Good Luck!
STOCK REPORT

EarlyBird Report – 14 July

Dow Jones Index +0.36% 12,491
US Dollar Index -1.18% 75.18
US August Gold (Globex) 1580
WTI Oil (Globex) 9660
Copper (Globex) 438
US BHP +1.93% 94
Base Metals: Steady
AUDUSD 1.0750
EURUSD 1.42
SPI 4508
ASX200 4514

Traders, we would like to inform you that content (Charts) published on FOREX GOLD SP500 OIL will not be updated from Friday July 1st to the July 15th 2011.

US News Wire
U.S. stocks pared their gains in afternoon trading Wednesday, but were still poised to snap a three-day slide as investors saw hope for further economic stimulus from the Federal Reserve.

Commodities

US Gold Futures 1580
Us Dollar down Gold up, things are back to normal. Gold will look for short term support on SG2 (1565 I 1572 I 1580) which is the 65,72,80 group before testing 1600.
Once aspect in the bigger picture, is to understand that the price is above the half way mark from 1000 to 2000, that is the 1500 MediumLevel, this places the bias at 2000, this is the same psychology of a stock going from 1.00 to 2.00. When you have been around the markets long enough you slowly understand that opinions of something going too high or too low diminish and you simply work with the price.
There is a possible corrective price pattern in silver and I will point that out in the video, so we can observe it in line with gold touching on 1600 and reacting.

Oil WTI (Globex Futures) 98
The MajorLevel TL1 the 100 is the line in the sand for positive or negative.
The current push up to 99 back at the old high from last week does give the market a stronger stance, however it is under the level TL1, so you can’t go long unless its above, as you would be working against probability.
The other element is that Oil following stock and the move up on the SP500 appears a corrective rally from the five waves down yesterday

Base Metals

US Spot Prices (24HR in l/b)
US Copper:           Last: 4.35-
US Nickel:             Last: 10.83-
US Zinc:                Last: 1.06+
US Aluminium       Last: 1.11+

Copper (Globex Futures) 435
Staying with a wave four correction as long as the price stays above the 430 – 425. Basic correctional patterns are in three swings, copper is entering the third now, however wave fours are the most complicated, that is triangle, double zigzags… so we don’t trade them unless we know for sure, but towards the end of them we can take positions, as the larger the correction the safe the next trend up , as a larger correction and especially sideways corrections that wave fours normally are, are solid foundations (accumulation of buyers) for a solid trend, but the wave five trend will have less volume than the third previous wave, this is why you know the wave five will create a larger top, based on the flow of volume, after all it’s the volume that creates the price

Forex

US Dollar Futures (c) DXY 7540
The price is retracing the 61.8% of the last trend, with bot the Futures and the Index the main point is that the bias for the trend is up as long as the price stays above 75. The 61.8% of the last trend for the Euro is 143, however in both cases we will stay with the wave count and trade the level, we can also connect the wave count to the SP500, as mentioned yesterday most markets have the same pattern up, this is a fear factor and this is showing in the gold price.

EURUSD

TradingLevels: We have to look at the current move up as a 61.8% retracement of the last trend, the euro is currently lagging the DXY in this, the DXY should bounce off the 75 creating the top for the Euro.
Trade Strategy: Be on the right side of 14150 or 142. The current high has also be created be and overhead trend line

AUDUSD

TradingLevels: The 10772 is the first resistance and 108 is the next. If the price is going to push through these resistances then expect the TradingLevels Classic pattern to unfold across 108. The reaction, the support, the first high above the level, then the abc correction, then up. I will explain the path. The price is required to stay above 107 - 10672 as a move down now through 107 would create overlapping wave structures
Elliott Wave: The rally up can be like the US Stocks and Euro and abc rally or from here is can turn into and impulse wave, which I think it is.
Trade Strategy: Look for support on 10720 for a push higher through 10772 and 108, it wont be easy and can get choppy, so give it room to move through these numbers

Indices

Dow Jones Futures CFD 12,500

TradingLevels:
Yesterday we had the five waves down (impulse), and last night the three waves up (abc) so now after the three waves up abc we will have another five waves down, so the overall structure from the high around 12772 level is a 5-3-5 structure – we are entering the last five now. Well not the last, but because we have the first five waves down from the high we can confidently map out the 5-3-5 structure, beyond that we need to talk about the structure of one degree higher as Elliott is a fractal theory. The next degree higher has a few steps, but from a trading point of vide the 12500 mTL5 is a line in the sand for being long or short.
Without making things too complicated the larger pattern is fine as long as it stays above 12200, under this is not a good look. That said, it’s the 12400 the 38.2% roughly retracement level that we are interested in as a wave four pullback. We have been talking about this in the video and will again today.
Elliott Wave: The whole move down is viewed as an abc correction to 12400, however this three wave structure can turn into a five wave structure and move further down, we talk about this move down before it occurred and pointed out we would get to a point where we would just have to wait and see, and that point is approaching the 12400. The structures personality is one way of working out what will be occurring, that is basically the speed of the move down, if you panic then it’s probably going to turn into five waves
Trade Strategy: Sell rally retests a levels

S&P500 CFDs 1,316

TradingLevels:
1300 mTl3 is the line in the sand, the support ranges from 1260 to 1300.
Trade Strategy: Use each sublevel as support or resistance to trade long or short from but exit at each sublevel and wait for support or resistance to be tested. Expecting further selling pressure

FTSE 100 Futures 5860

TradingLevels: The price and the trial it’s leaving is having a lot of problems at the resistance 5900, so from here the SG2 5872 etc are the new resistance points, followed by the midpoint 5850 as retested resistance.
Elliott Wave: The pattern into 5900 appears to be a wave four, so look for five waves down to 5800, but I’m not that sure, so the key is being on the right side of 5872, so the stop distance is your risk, so if the price does move in your favour, take enough profit to cover the risk breakeven point while you can, then the trade doesn’t matter, you even.
Trade Strategy:

SPI Futures 4500

TradingLevels: The 4500 is the line in the sand and being on the right side of this is the starting line…
Elliott Wave: Yesterday we talked about the current move up being and abc corrective rally, this is playing out and the price being under 4500 will support further down side.
Trade Strategy: Its simply about the price being above or below 4500 and the sublevels either side SG1 above and SG2 below to add and subtract positions, it’s how you handle the positions while you’re in the trade that affects your P/L

Summary

Gold is up, so is the fear factor.
The US Indices, we have been looking from the top of the market, say the Dow futures 12772 level, a 5-3-5 wave structure down, we have done the first two, the 5 & 3 and are starting the other 5 now.
As long as the Dow stays above 12400 there’s not much to get excited about.
That is the wave four 38.2% retracement level. But while the price is below 12500 then we have to prepare for further downside.

It’s our banks that mostly lead us into and out of trends and with the XXJ the banking sector failing the retest of 5000 places a bearish bias on our markets.
The ASX200, simply give it time to settle into 4500 as support or resistance, this is the line in the sand… yesterday we were talking of a abc rally to 4530 and that is completed now, so there will be pressure to the down side, so trades should work around this level.

The Euro has the same pattern as the indices and the flipside in the US dollar saying above 75 as support, the 75 is its line in the sand and for the Euro the 144 is the balance line, that the euro left behind and now we are looking for the first lower high

AUDUSD is the only positive at the moment, it does now need to prove its self and get through the 10772 and 108.

Trading Quote
“But in all my experience, I have never been in any accident…of any sort worth speaking about. I have seen but one vessel in distress in all my years at sea. I never saw a wreck and never have been wrecked nor was I ever in any predicament that threatened to end in disaster of any sort.” E.J. Smith, 1907, Captain, RMS Titanic

“Once you have a trading system with a positive expectation, you must establish money management rules. Follow them as if your life depended on them”

Traders, we would like to inform you that content (Charts) published on FOREX GOLD SP500 OIL will not be updated from Friday July 1st till July 15th 2011. The EarlyBird will do its best to cover these until the 15^th July.

Today's Financial Events
Time     Currency   Detail     Forecast    Previous

8:45am NZD        GDP q/q    0.3% 0.2%
11:00am AUD        MI Inflation Expectations     3.3%
All Day EUR        French Bank Holiday
6:00pm EUR        ECB Monthly Bulletin
7:00pm EUR        CPI y/y    2.7% 2.7%
7:00pm EUR        Core CPI y/y    1.5% 1.5%
10:30pm USD        Core Retail Sales m/m    0.1% 0.3%
10:30pm USD        PPI m/m    -0.2% 0.2%
10:30pm USD        Retail Sales m/m    0.0% -0.2%
10:30pm USD        Unemployment Claims    419K 418K
10:30pm USD        Core PPI m/m    0.2% 0.2%
12:00am USD        Fed Chairman Bernanke Testifies
12:00am USD        Business Inventories m/m    0.7% 0.8%
12:30am USD        Natural Gas Storage     95B

NOTES:
1. Check the Dividend & Reporting section for your stock on this site before trading
2. Prices may change as this report is written while markets are closing/trading
3. Always think things out for yourself, we are only here to bounce ideas around.

Good Morning & Good Luck!
STOCK REPORT

EarlyBird Report – 13 July

Dow Jones Index -0.10% 12,493
US Dollar Index +0.18% 76
US August Gold (Globex) 1565
WTI Oil (Globex) 9660
Copper (Globex) 438
US BHP -2.72% 93.23
Base Metals: Positive
AUDUSD 1.06275
EURUSD 1.440
SPI 4470
ASX200 4495

Traders, we would like to inform you that content (Charts) published on FOREX GOLD SP500 OIL will not be updated from Friday July 1st to the July 15th 2011.

US News Wire
With the euro-zone debt crisis looming large and an array of inflation readings ticking lower in the developing world, emerging-market currencies broadly weakened while credits booked slight losses across the board.

Commodities

US Gold Futures 1552
The pattern at 1550 is in three waves, so it’s and abc, meaning higher ground, yes it has moved up, but expect more, look for fives waves up, currently its close to the top of the third, so a fourth 38.2% retracement of the third then the fifth wave up.
The sublevels follow the Fibo sequence 1,2,3,5,8. So 1330, 1350, 1380, so the 1380 is next, however there are smaller levels that need to be noted and are part of subgroup 2 (SG2) 1565 I 1572 I 1580 expect the five wave up to complete in SG2 the lower end, once completed expect a correction.
These are strange times if the Gold is Running with the US Dollar.

Oil WTI (Globex Futures) 9650
Yesterday we talked of five waves down from just under 100 to 95 (MinorLevel mTL5) and were expecting a abc correction bounce, that is well underway. The important sublevel is 9650 then MinorLevel 98 this comes with 9772 and 9765 this is the supply level where the volume created the sell down. The 9720 (72) is the 61.8% retracement level the wave structure can take the price closer to 9772, the main corrective price pattern would be at 9650

Base Metals

US Spot Prices (24HR in l/b)
US Copper:           Last: 4.36+
US Nickel:             Last: 10.55+
US Zinc:                Last: 1.05+
US Aluminium       Last: 1.10+

Copper (Globex Futures) 435
I still take the line, as long as the 425 430 are support the price pattern unfolding is a wave four, it still has another two swings but once completed should move up to 450.
For short term traders the 440 is the supply and resistance point expect a turn here.

Forex

US Dollar Futures (c) DXY 7620
From the high 77+ expect five waves down to 76, then a three wave abc counter trend the norm would be 618% but use the sublevel working down from 7672 to 7650 then 7630, after the abc bounce then expect another five waves down, apart from 76 the SG2 zone 7572 is the first support.

EURUSD

TradingLevels: The rally should be a wave four within a larger wave three down, the rally price point should be where it is around the 14050 to 14072. The move up appears to be in five waves, so we can label it wave a, if so expect a wave b back into 140 in three smaller waves to 13972 then and another small five waves up to complete an abc wave four correction, as the DXY has three swings, the first is down to 76 - 7572
Trade Strategy: Correction across 140 in three swings

AUDUSD

TradingLevels: The 10672 SG2 zone is the 61.8% retracement level to watch, with the 106 as the support, a drop below the 106 - 10572 would see further down side
Elliott Wave: The 61.8% retracement roughly at 10530 needs to hold to maintain a larger bullish pattern
Trade Strategy: The pattern up is the same as the Euro, so the DXY and the Euro are important here, you may be able to work out an early lead from them. The other aspect is the SP500 Futures as it also has the same pattern up. Work of supports and resistances keep and trading ranges to the upside short and tight. The SPI has made five waves down so its 618% retracement will be very important. The real concern is the ASX has moved down so quick, we have to hope that the other Asian markets can stabilise a support for the ASX200, the banks will lead the market

Indices

Dow Jones Futures CFD 12,500

TradingLevels:
The same comments as yesterday, the 38.2% target is 12430 with the 12500 being the stronger number would create a support
Elliott Wave: The pattern sitting on 12500 appears to be corrective, so expect further downside to the 12430…
Trade Strategy: 12500 as S/R

S&P500 CFDs 1,320

TradingLevels:
The move up off 1300 has overlapping internal wave structures, weakness. the support at 1310 will be critical 61.8% of the move up. This is the first bounce off 1300 now observe the pattern that gets created in this range.
Trade Strategy: Use each sublevel as support or resistance to trade long or short from

FTSE 100 Futures 5880

TradingLevels: Like the Dow and SP500 the move down to 5900 is in three waves so it can be a ABC correction but it can also develop into five waves? We just have to wait and see.
Elliott Wave: The 5800 is the 61.8% retracement level of the whole last move up from 5650 to 6080 The move down from the last high appears to be in five waves so after this bounce is completed there should be move downside. The abc bounce up is what needs to be worked out, this first move up is in three waves abc to the 38.2% of the move down, this move up may only be the first of three swings ABC to the 50/62% retracement level, I just don’t know. The short term expect a move down under the 5872
Trade Strategy:

SPI Futures 4500

TradingLevels: ASX200 has come down fast, faster than our other Asian neighbours, this is a concern for the view of further upside, however as long as the 4500 holds as support its technically fine, a move under the 4472 SG2 is not, its normal to expect a bounce off 4500 and that will be the case, it is the pattern of the bounce that will be important to us this is what we need to study to gain insight in to the bigger picture. The Shanghai and the N225 are expected lower in their wave counts this can add the pressure over the week ahead
Elliott Wave: One of the main problems is that the SPI is already trading under its lows. The move down from the last high around 4650 to the current low is in five waves, would I don’t know yet is if this move down is a Wave 1 or Wave 5, this will depend on the ASX200 staying above 4500 and 4472, but the pressure from the carbon tax and the banks leading is going to be a tough one
Trade Strategy: 4500 is the resistance and the price is under that so the bias is short, the triggers are the levels is SG2 such as 4472 as support or resistance.

Summary

Yes the ASX200 is sold off strongly with these two days, so has Hong Kong, Singapore and others, the Shanghai has sold off somewhat but would be expected to retrace down further as we have been chatting about, the strong move on the ASX200 and the room to move down for the other Asian markets places pressure on the ASX200, a move under 4472 creates the bearish picture, remember the ASX200 chart that we put out with the larger bearish picture? I will put it out again as that just well be the case, the SPI is leading the cash, so a move there under its last low 4422 is a trigger. We understood the ASX and the Dow etc would correct, we just didn’t expect the ASX200 to cover so much ground in such a short time, so it is at risk and the 4472 is critical for a much larger move down.

The Dow has held well on its 12500 and we can give it space to move to 12400 as a wave four correction, but beyond that opens up another picture. Any way not to panic we knew we would be at these prices and we are now here going through this, we need to keep a cool head and use very small amounts of capital to work the bias so the markets, which we will do later in the week, because as mentioned we normally observe the first swing down to see if it’s in three waves or five waves, if the Dow moves to 12400 then we have five waves, then we can expect a three wave abc counter trend and then another five waves down, if the 12500 holds and the Dow moves up then we have three waves down abc correction down and then we can expect mew highs. So we just need to get through that.

Of course our local stocks have their own momentum and we need to trade them on their own merits and we are, we have navigated this roller coaster over the last few weeks quite well, just use the daily Robo method and get your money management right don’t over trade, if you can do this you will be fine. Most people over trade and probability will be hot on your heals to take your money, so control yourself :-)

Trading Quote
"If you're not making mistakes, you're not trying hard enough." - Vince Lombardi

Traders, we would like to inform you that content (Charts) published on FOREX GOLD SP500 OIL will not be updated from Friday July 1st till July 15th 2011. The EarlyBird will do its best to cover these until the 15^th July.

Today's Financial Events
Time     Currency   Detail     Forecast    Previous

13th-14th NZD        REINZ HPI m/m     -1.8%
8:45am NZD        FPI m/m     0.5%
Tentative GBP        Nationwide Consumer Confidence     55
10:30am AUD        Westpac Consumer Sentiment     -2.6%
12:00pm CNY        GDP q/y    9.5% 9.7%
12:00pm CNY        Fixed Asset Investment ytd/y    25.7% 25.8%
12:00pm CNY        Industrial Production y/y    13.2% 13.3%
12:00pm CNY        NBS Press Conference
13th-15th CNY        New Loans    623B 552B
13th-15th CNY        M2 Money Supply y/y    15.4% 15.1%
12:00pm CNY        Retail Sales y/y    17.0% 16.9%
13th-16th CNY        Foreign Direct Investment ytd/y     23.4%
2:30pm JPY        Revised Industrial Production m/m    5.7% 5.7%
3:00pm JPY        BOJ Monthly Report
4:00pm EUR        German WPI m/m    -0.2% 0.0%
5:15pm CHF        PPI m/m    -0.3% -0.2%
6:30pm GBP        Claimant Count Change    15.1K 19.6K
6:30pm GBP        Average Earnings Index 3m/y    2.0% 1.8%
6:30pm GBP        Unemployment Rate    7.7% 7.7%
7:00pm EUR        Industrial Production m/m    0.5% 0.2%
10:30pm USD        Import Prices m/m    -0.7% 0.2%
12:00am USD        Fed Chairman Bernanke Testifies
12:30am USD        Crude Oil Inventories     -0.9M
4:00am USD        Federal Budget Balance    -68.0B -57.6B

NOTES:
1. Check the Dividend & Reporting section for your stock on this site before trading
2. Prices may change as this report is written while markets are closing/trading
3. Always think things out for yourself, we are only here to bounce ideas around.

Good Morning & Good Luck!
STOCK REPORT

EarlyBird Report – 12 July

Dow Jones Index -1.20% 12,505
US Dollar Index +1.28% 75.98
US August Gold (Globex) 1553
WTI Oil (Globex) 95
Copper (Globex) 435
US BHP -2.72% 93.23
Base Metals: Softer
AUDUSD 1.0755
EURUSD 1.4260
SPI 4500
ASX200 4582

Traders, we would like to inform you that content (Charts) published on FOREX GOLD SP500 OIL will not be updated from Friday July 1st to the July 15th 2011.

US News Wire
Stocks were routed Monday as investors worried that Europe's debt crisis is spiraling out of control, threatening to engulf larger nations like Italy and Spain and create a wider crisis for global markets

Commodities

US Gold Futures 1552
Expect a corrective pattern at 1550, after three swings we can understand if the pattern is corrective abc if so then it will push higher. It is an old high so it will struggle here and can fail here. It is move opposite to stock, however the headwind in the US Dollar as it also pushes up, having these two move together is not the norm, one will give…The 1330 correction is the volume support for stops, but suggest locking in some at 1550 until we can see what the pattern is at 1550

Oil WTI (Globex Futures) 95
Five waves down from the last high to 95, we should see a small abc across or up off 95 then another five waves down, following stock.

Base Metals

US Spot Prices (24HR in l/b)
US Copper:           Last: 4.31-
US Nickel:             Last: 10.42-
US Zinc:                Last: 1.03-
US Aluminium       Last: 1.10-

Copper (Globex Futures) 435
The move down is likely a wave (iv) and the retracement target is 38.2% around 430 the top of subgroup1 (SG1) if it does extend further then 425 is acceptable but under 420 then there is something wrong and a larger bearish pattern would be unfolding. This current correction down is in line with the Shanghai and the ASX etc once this wave (iv) is completed we are looking for a push higher. The catalyst for failure here is a strong US Dollar or rather a weaker Euro, the markets will come to a cross roads shortly as US stocks and US Dollar battle it out for the larger direction

Forex

US Dollar Futures (c) DXY 75.40
On the actual Index the 7650 is the important level as support or resistance, even though there is the Pennant pattern on the daily chart, which is also a series of waves ones and twos in Elliott terms and is breaking to the upside, the sublevel 7650 (65) is an important mile stone in the trend up. So the Euro is the mirror opposite and we have been chatting about it breaking lower within our trend channel through the 140 which it has done and still has lower to go, the daily or weekly Robo was also mentioned a week ago as a good tool for the longer term traders

EURUSD
TradingLevels: The speed of the wave structure down is wave three personality.
Once the price is firmly under 140 we can look at 138 and 13772 for the lows of the wave three. But please understand the size of this trend, the 130 is also in reach
Trade Strategy: Daily and weekly Robo. The price locking under 140 from any retest is the best bet other wise 139. But the trade is short from under 144 with the weekly Robo as the guide stick and use the daily to add and subtract contracts

AUDUSD
TradingLevels: While the 108 (mTL8) and 10722 are in place the bias is bearish
Elliott Wave: The 61.8% retracement is down around the 10550
Trade Strategy: If you are short from the 10750 then look to the 4 hr, Daily and Weekly Robo and a glass of red so you don’t get emotional

Indices

Dow Jones Futures CFD 12,500
TradingLevels:
The target down was the 38.2% which is 12400 but I mentioned a move down to 12500 as it was the first level and we are there now, It appears it can go lower.
The 12500 is a line in the sand and there does appear to be five waves down to 12500, meaning there should now be three waves up, an abc 5-3-5 correction, but we should strongly consider the 38.2% at 12400. It will be about the 12500 as support or resistance, so work this level
Elliott Wave: Looking for five waves down to 12400 or 12500 then and abc rally then another five wave down
Trade Strategy: just observe the 12500 as S/R and work any trade from this price point

S&P500 CFDs 1,320
TradingLevels:
The Dow at 12500 is the same as 1320 for the SP500 roughly the 38.2% retracement level.
The move down can also be seen as an abc correction, three swings down, either way we should see short term support at 1320

FTSE 100 Futures 5900
TradingLevels: Like the Dow and SP500 the move down to 5900 is in three waves so it can be a ABC correction but it can also develop into five waves? We just have to wait and see.
Elliott Wave: If it is going to be five waves down then the wave four rally up off 5900 would be 38.2% 5950 But we can also expect a wave one up if the whole last move down was an ABC correction , its just too early to say

SPI Futures 4500
TradingLevels: Expect the cash XJO to drag the SPI under 4500
Elliott Wave: The 61.8% retracement level down is very close to the 4500, it would only be natural to see a bounce off here, however the opening of the cash market would drive the price lower.
Trade Strategy: The low at 4500 the 618% retracement level, has seen three waves down to that point, the opening of the cash can see it lower and also the other Asian markets can take it lower, keep an eye on the Dow Futures during the day and look for support in BHP

Summary

The Strong US dollar or, more so the weak Euro, is playing a strong part in this current correction. The Euro is expected to move lower, and it’s the norm for the Euro and SP500 to move together, so be aware of this.

The wave count down in all indices overnight is the same. They are currently three waves down which can be called an ElliottWave ABC correction. Many of them have reached there Fibo retracement level and others are
close. The point is that as an ABC correction they have their lows in place, but the three waves can easily turn into five waves (impulse).

If we get five waves it opens either a larger corrective pattern or a larger five waves down. We knew we would be going through this juncture and there’s not a lot we can do about it except trade less and build small trades into the direction is case the direction expands.

We have done a good job explaining this correction before it occurred and have scaled out of long positions to lighten the exposure and even placed a few shorts. However this next step is important. We simply need to know if we are going to get three waves down or five waves down and we won’t know until tomorrow or even the following day, so its important to realise that any trades placed today would be at risk of being stopped out the following day. You can understand why taking part profits is always a good thing.

Quick Tip: Three waves means up side and five waves means more down side.

Trading Quotes
"If you don't get what you want, it's a sign either that you did not seriously want it, or that you tried to bargain over the price." - Rudyard Kipling

“A doctor goes to medical school for four years before practicing medicine; a lawyer goes to law school for three years before beginning the practice of law; why then does a sufficient amount of money with which to trade qualify an unschooled individual to be a trader?” W.D. Gann

Traders, we would like to inform you that content (Charts) published on FOREX GOLD SP500 OIL will not be updated from Friday July 1st till July 15th 2011. The EarlyBird will do its best to cover these until the 15^th July.

Today's Financial Events
Time     Currency   Detail     Forecast    Previous

12th-13th NZD        REINZ HPI m/m     -1.8%
9:01am GBP        BRC Retail Sales Monitor y/y     -2.1%
9:01am GBP        RICS House Price Balance    -24% -28%
9:50am JPY        Tertiary Industry Activity m/m    0.8% 2.6%
9:50am JPY        CGPI y/y    2.4% 2.2%
11:30am AUD        NAB Business Confidence     6
12th-16th CNY        Foreign Direct Investment ytd/y     23.4%
Tentative JPY        Monetary Policy Statement
Tentative JPY        Overnight Call Rate    <0.10% <0.10%
3:30pm EUR        French CPI m/m    0.1% 0.1%
4:00pm EUR        German Final CPI m/m    0.1% 0.1%
Tentative JPY        BOJ Press Conference
5:30pm GBP        MPC Member Bean Speaks
All Day EUR        ECOFIN Meetings
6:30pm GBP        CPI y/y    4.5% 4.5%
6:30pm GBP        DCLG HPI y/y    -0.2% -0.3%
6:30pm GBP        RPI y/y    5.2% 5.2%
6:30pm GBP        Trade Balance    -7.3B -7.4B
6:30pm GBP        Core CPI y/y    3.4% 3.3%
7:00pm GBP        CB Leading Index m/m     0.4%
10:30pm CAD        Trade Balance    -0.8B -0.9B
10:30pm USD        Trade Balance    -44.1B -43.7B
12:00am USD        IBD/TIPP Economic Optimism    45.7 44.6
4:00am USD        FOMC Meeting Minutes

NOTES:
1. Check the Dividend & Reporting section for your stock on this site before trading
2. Prices may change as this report is written while markets are closing/trading
3. Always think things out for yourself, we are only here to bounce ideas around.

Good Morning & Good Luck!

»TOP

EarlyBird Report – 11 July

Dow Jones Index -0.49% 12,657
US Dollar Index +0.10% 75.08
US August Gold (Globex) 1543
WTI Oil (Globex) 9650
Copper (Globex) 443
US BHP -1.0% 98.84
Base Metals: Softer
AUDUSD 1.0755
EURUSD 1.4260
SPI 4600
ASX200 4654

Traders, we would like to inform you that content (Charts) published on FOREX GOLD SP500 OIL will not be updated from Friday July 1st till July 15th 2011.

US News Wire
U.S. International companies trading in New York closed lower Friday, in line with the broader market, after a disappointing U.S. monthly jobs report caused investors to scale back recent optimism about the economic recovery.

Commodities

US Gold Futures 1544
Five waves up from the last low 1480 (mot complete yet 1556?) then a abc correction back down 1530? Then up.

Oil WTI (Globex Futures) 9650
The reaction is in line with stock and as you would expect a reaction at 100 (TL1)
The volume support is 95 (MinorLevel mTL5) expect a bounce up from this level… after the bounce if the 95 fails to hold then it’s back to 93 and likely 90 (MediumLevel ML9) however as mentioned this market is on edge and will follow stock.

Base Metals

US Spot Prices (24HR in l/b)
US Copper:           Last: 4.36-
US Nickel:             Last: 10.73-
US Zinc:                Last: 1.06-
US Aluminium       Last: 1.12-

Copper (Globex Futures) 440
The current high is the top of a wave three, so expect a wave four down can go as low as 430

Forex

US Dollar Futures (c) DXY 75.40
From the low of early June 7450 there have been five waves up (impulse) and then over the last week we have seen a correction the abc correction, is the correction complete is the question, there is an abc structure so it can be competed and can now move up from here, that’s is above the 75. However corrections are the weakest link in using Elliott, meaning this abc correction may just pan out to be part of the abc correction. A break to the upside above 75.75 would be just that the trigger to the upside a move under 75 or 7520 is a larger correction opening. The Euro is in the same boat, so the SP500 / Dow will also have meaning in this current situation as it works in harmony with the Euro.

EURUSD
TradingLevels: The Euro has had five waves down from 14572 to roughly 14220 then Thursday and Friday had the abc correction, once the abc is completed we should expect further downside. However the question of whether the abc correction is complete or not is the question.
For the purpose of trading, let’s just assume the abc is completed, if so then the price is currently retesting 143, so allow it to test 143 and if it fails then use the 14272 as resistance to build the first small position in on the short side, with the expectation that 142 will be taken out so you can add to the position
Trade Strategy: Building a longer term short position from under the 144 down under 140, that is if the trend is going in that direction as the larger daily picture is the market in a triangle pattern that can break out either way, we are simply looking at the downside because the bias is down as the price is under 144, if the price was above 144 it would be long, even though the break out point for a long would be above 146. Just as another though for the mix as the Euro follows stocks, is that the Dow is overbought on the daily but oversold on the weekly this would put the Euro to the long side for the medium term. All the markets are at cross roads and we have to be patient for a strong conviction on direction.

AUDUSD
TradingLevels: Resistance 10772 – 10800, support 107 – 10720/30 The point being here is that the resistance is strong so any upside would be slow through 10772 – 108 therefor any long trades would need these numbers as support. So the faster trades would be to the downside if 10750 forms as the resistance. The 10720/30 is the support and for a move down its also the 618 zone so it will be a strong support. This whole pattern under 108 is corrective and abc a reaction pattern, we cannot confirmed its finished, a move above the last high would 10780+ (SG2) if this does occur we will be looking for support on 108 with the aim of getting to 110. A move now under 107 or 10720 is a larger correction unfolding
Elliott Wave: abc
Trade Strategy: Be on the right side of 10750 for the trade, this may take time to work out but stay with it as the trend will come from this price point

Indices

Dow Jones Futures CFD 12,650
TradingLevels:
Lots to talk about this week, as you know I’m not a big user of indicators, but I did say some time ago I would start using some, I guess I like the Stochastic (George Lane) simply because it can help with the wave count tuning points or the market being oversold or over bought and this is a good time to use it, that is, many markets are currently over bought on the daily charts but are oversold on the weekly charts, meaning short term highs are due and we have seen the first sigh of that on Friday, even if this is not the short term high we still can expect it sooner than later, but the good news is that there is upside for the medium term
Elliott Wave: The current high is likely a wave three high with the current pullback a wave four as mentioned last week early the wave four is likely to pull back to its 38.2% retracement level or around the 12500 (abc)
Trade Strategy: Short term in the next session look for the 61.8% retracement level up (SG2) it is a retest of 12700 once complete should term down abc.

S&P500 CFDs 1,340
TradingLevels:
Think of the move down on Friday as the Wave a and the current move up the Wave b once complete 1348? Then down for the Wave c

FTSE 100 Futures 6012
TradingLevels: ABC correction across 6000 as a Wave 4
Elliott Wave: The FSTE250 has already made new highs, this FSTE will follow after this Wave 4, wave fours can get complicated, the 38.2% retracement level is 5930, however the fourth wave of one lesser degree is also a good target price point 9572
Trade Strategy: Choppy within SG1 of 6000 - 6030

SPI Futures 4600
TradingLevels: Like the other markets, expecting a abc correction across 4600.
Elliott Wave: The abc pattern unfolding now, the move down is the Wave a, then the Wave b up then the Wave c down. Because we now have five wave up like the Shanghai we can expect an abc correction retracing 61.8% in the case of the SPI that is SG1 of 4500. However because the market is working with 4600 there will be a strong hold to this price and the 4550 may be the lowest, the same with the Shanghai at 2800. Once this is over look for the price to push up
Trade Strategy: Most markets are entering a corrective pattern, unless you understand how to trade through a abc correction its best to observe it and chose your time carefully

Summary

The week ahead won’t be easy, because the price action is corrective.
The US and UK indices are having a wave four correction, whereas the Asian are having a wave two correction and the commodities are also falling into line with this.

As you know we were expecting this correction as nearly all markets are overbought on the daily charts and in most countries the small stocks have help to take their indices to new highs, our key focus was the SP1000, Dow Comp, Dow Transports FSTE250 and locally the AUDUSD, these were and are the key leaders we used to established higher prices will continue in the medium term, it’s just the short term we need to navigate.

BHP in the US has had five small waves up from 90 to 95+ like the Shanghai and the ASX200 (not so clear) because of these five waves up we will see an abc 5-3-5 correction, once this is completed, we can move in long.
Last week we laid of placing long trades out from Wed through to Friday as we were waiting for this abc correction, now we are in this abc correction and it will be our aim this week to understand this abc correction better, so we can position ourselves long.

Regarding new trades today on the ASX, there are two aspects, seeing how the carbon tax impact settles into the market and second the pullback on the Dow.

Trading Quote
Ancient Chinese Believe - Money bags
This year, July has 5 Fridays, 5 Saturdays and 5 Sundays.
This happens once every 823 years.
Based on Chinese Feng Shui.

Traders, we would like to inform you that content (Charts) published on FOREX GOLD SP500 OIL will not be updated from Friday July 1st till July 15th 2011. The EarlyBird will do its best to cover these until the 15^th July.

Today's Financial Events
Time     Currency   Detail     Forecast    Previous

9:50am JPY        M2 Money Stock y/y    2.8% 2.7%
11:30am AUD        Home Loans m/m    4.6% 4.8%
3:00pm JPY        Household Confidence    35.7 34.2
4:00pm JPY        Prelim Machine Tool Orders y/y     34.0%
4:45pm EUR        French Industrial Production m/m    0.5% -0.3%
10:15pm CAD        Housing Starts    182K 184K
12:30am CAD        BOC Business Outlook Survey

NOTES:
1. Check the Dividend & Reporting section for your stock on this site before trading
2. Prices may change as this report is written while markets are closing/trading
3. Always think things out for yourself, we are only here to bounce ideas around.

Good Morning & Good Luck!
STOCK REPORT

CFD Report

info@tradinglounge.com.au (Administrator ) — Tue, 19 Jul 2011 08:33:48 GMT

CFD Report Weekly Trades

OPEN POSITIONS	CODE	DATE	LONG/SHORT	ENTRY	STOP
Profit Targets

	GBG	14-Jul	SHORT	0.75	0.825
	WTF	15-Jul	SHORT	4.73	5.11
	WPL	15-Jul	SHORT	39.69	41.03
75% 5.00	FGE	15-Jul	SHORT	5.39	5.83
75% 2.00	HVN	14-Jul	SHORT	2.37	2.57
50% 3.00	DJS	14-Jul	SHORT	3.89	3.43
	WOW	13-Jul	SHORT	27.31	27.63
	ERA	13-Jul	SHORT	3.99	4.43
30% 11.00	CTX	13-Jul	SHORT	11.24	11.63
30% 20.80	ANZ	12-Jul	SHORT	21.49	21.03
	AQA	12-Jul	SHORT	6.89	7.23
30% 23.40	NAB	12-Jul	SHORT	24.79	24.23

CFDs Gold Report

info@tradinglounge.com.au (Administrator ) — Wed, 27 Jul 2011 08:04:56 GMT

US Gold Futures 1615
The small pattern sitting on 1610 over the last few sessions is corrective a small abc three swing pattern, therefor the price should push up from here. Remember is the top of subgroup1 (SG1) 1630 finds support then this action psychologically separates itself from 1600 and will become part of the 1650, which is a MediumLevel (65)
In terms of trading its mostly always the same, that is trade from the level 1600 in this case to 1230 exit, wait for support on top of SG1 (retests) then move back in through the micro group1 and trade 1650, in most case the next level is the Midpoint 5, which is the second strongest number after 1.
Silver has retested support on ML4/40.00

CFDs Gold Report- from the EarlyBird

Share CFD Report

info@tradinglounge.com.au (Administrator ) — Sat, 30 Jul 2011 02:54:10 GMT

SHARE CFD REPORT

EarlyBird Report – 29 July

Dow Jones Index -0.51% 12,240
US Dollar Index +0.18% 74.23
US August Gold (Globex) 1612
WTI Oil (Globex) 97.38
Copper (Globex) 442
US BHP -0.66% 92.30
Base Metals: positive
AUDUSD 1.0980
EURUSD 1.43
SPI 4418
ASX200 4463

US News
Growing jitters about the U.S. debt ceiling debate just days ahead of the looming Aug. 2 deadline weighed heavily on emerging-market currencies Thursday, while emerging-market debt continued a modest winning streak.

While markets are largely still expecting U.S. policymakers to reach a deal to cut the federal deficit and lift the debt ceiling at the last minute, investors took caution on emerging-market currencies, showing little conviction to place riskier bets.

Commodities

US Gold Futures 1612
The move down in gold appears corrective at this stage but it’s just a little too early to tell, we need to see the market unfold a little further, a corrective pattern down means more upside. A move above 1620 would confirm it as corrective as current there are three waves (abc) down, we just need to see if the three waves turn into five waves (impulse). But just for the mean time expect a move back down below 1600. Support sitting on 1620 can create a trade to 11630.

Oil WTI (Globex Futures) 97.38
The move down from the 100 is now more like the SP500. The move has developed five waves to the 9650 sublevel, we are move seeing the abc counter trend up then we should see another five waves down to 95. The current rally could come back 61.8% to the 99 but the current 98 does satisfy the actual structure. The main point is there is weakness here, however support on 98 can create a quick trade long and while the price is under 98 look for short trade set ups, the 9720 is one price you should have as resistance

Base Metals

US Spot Prices (24HR in l/b)
US Copper:           Last: 4.44+
US Nickel:             Last: 11.12+
US Zinc:                Last: 1.13+
US Aluminium       Last: 1.17+

Copper (Globex Futures) 445
The aim is to see copper above 450 as support, the current support has lifted over time from 430 to 440 so it should only be a matter of time before we see it above 450, there is still selling pressure at the 450 but the demand is chipping away at it.

Forex

US Dollar Futures (c) DXY 74.38
The US Dollar has five waves up off its low and the Euro has five waves down from its high, both should now see abc counter trends, once these abc three waves structures are completed then these market should continue in the direction of the first five waves . The abc structure can retrace 61.8% of the initial five waves

EURUSD 1.43

TradingLevels: From the last high around 145, there have been five waves down (impulse wave) this should now see a three wave counter trend, an abc. The first resistance or rather supply (sellers) is at the SG2 zone 14365 I 14372 I 14380 and this would be seen as a retest of the Fibo/Gann 144 which is also a longer term balance line
Trade Strategy: After the 143 has been tested for support you can scalp the long side using SG1 of 143, but you are moving against the trend, there will be headwinds, sharp pullbacks. If the 143 becomes the resistance then simply look to the short side and use the 14272 SG2 for resistance and triggers, normally it the 72 becomes the resistance use the 65 as the trigger covering at the Midpoint 50

AUDUSD 1.0980

TradingLevels: The norm, with an overshoot pattern, that is when the price arrived at 110, it did not react, it just shot straight on through, so the distance it travelled above the 110, is the distance it is likely to travel back below, that would see the price at 10920 SG1
Elliott Wave: abc wave four pullback across mTL1 / 1.10 is still in play
Trade Strategy: Scalp the sublevels while in a corrective price action. The structure down is still unfolding look for a bounce of SG2 to retest 110 mTL1

Indices

Dow Jones Futures CFD 12,300

TradingLevels:
The price pattern is unfolding an impulse wave down (five waves), we should see the price at 12200 the 61.8% retracement level in the next session. The price is currently working through 12300, after the initial bounce of support it will weaken and the 12300 will become the resistance and the price will drop to 12200 and see another bounce, an abc larger rally before seeing further downside
Elliott Wave: ABC pull back to 12200 - 12172
Trade Strategy: Down to 12200

S&P500 CFDs 1,302

TradingLevels:
Expecting a move through 1300 to at least 1290 as a wave five, as we are looking at five wave down from the last high around 1350, once these five wave are completed we should see a move up
Trade Strategy: Scalpers, wait until 1300 is the resistance to get to 1290 and perhaps lower to 1280. As you can see there is support in the SG2 zone 1280 I 1272 I 1265 and we are expecting a larger pattern, the Triangle to complete in SG2. The Wave E of the ABCDE Triangle

FTSE 100 Futures 5827

TradingLevels: Work a short trade around the 5800, expect bounce off 5800 then a move down through then the retest of 5800 as resistance.
Elliott Wave: On the daily chart the SP500 and the FSTE have the same pattern that is the large triangle, so the current move down is the Wave E. We are in the Wave E, the Wave E has an ABC pattern, We are in the Wave C and in the Wave C there are five waves, we are in the later stages of those five waves which should complete the large ABCDE Triangle the same as the SP500. Also there is a chance this is not a Triangle, but a larger bearish picture unfolding, but whatever its going to be it will work itself into a corner and we will know when it comes out of that corner, this will be next week
Trade Strategy: Wait for 5800 to lock in as resistance to trade short ranges short, sublevels

SPI Futures 4440

TradingLevels: Expect a move to 4400, then a bounce then down through 4400 to SG2 4380 I 4372 I 4365 then a retest back up to 4400
Elliott Wave: Five wave unfolding down, the low of wave three will on 4400 then a wave four across 4400 then a wave five down to 4372 SG2 area
Trade Strategy: Keep trading ranges within the sublevels while navigating the 4400

Summary

In the big picture for the US and UK, we need to hold two wave counts in mind, one long one short.
The long is considering these indices are in a very large daily Triangle and the Short side is considering the Indices are actually rolling over. We won’t rely on opinions, we wait for the evidence to unfold.

Next week the market will work itself into a corner and when it comes out we will know which one it is and we will trade in that direction. I will do my best to explain this in the video today.
One of the concerns for the market making its mind up in a quick move is the August 2 deadline for the US pollies to agree on a debt package, this is going to be the tricky guessing bit.

Any trading done up to this point of knowing the direction will be short term.

I’m leaving this summary short, because this is the main point we have to prepare for, this will influence Indices and currencies.

One other point, is that the ASX Earning season will be in full swing next week, so check on what’s reporting and research the reviews before trading

Trading Quote
"Markets always go to extremes and so do most individual stocks. They go higher or lower than they should based on fundamentals because human emotions are not bound by reason."

Today's Financial Events
Time     Currency   Detail     Forecast    Previous

8:45am NZD        Building Consents m/m     2.2%
9:01am GBP        GfK Consumer Confidence    -26 -25
9:15am JPY        Manufacturing PMI     50.7
9:30am JPY        Household Spending y/y    -2.2% -1.9%
9:30am JPY        Tokyo Core CPI y/y    0.2% 0.1%
9:30am JPY        National Core CPI y/y    0.5% 0.6%
9:30am JPY        Unemployment Rate    4.6% 4.5%
9:50am JPY        Prelim Industrial Production m/m    4.6% 6.2%
11:30am AUD        Private Sector Credit m/m    0.4% 0.3%
3:00pm JPY        Housing Starts y/y    4.9% 6.4%
4:00pm EUR        German Retail Sales m/m    1.6% -2.8%
4:00pm GBP        Nationwide HPI m/m    -0.1% 0.0%
4:45pm EUR        French Consumer Spending m/m    0.4% -1.5%
6:30pm GBP        Net Lending to Individuals m/m    1.3B 1.3B
6:30pm GBP        M4 Money Supply m/m    0.3% 0.1%
6:30pm GBP        Mortgage Approvals    46K 46K
7:00pm EUR        CPI Flash Estimate y/y    2.7% 2.7%
7:00pm EUR        Italian Prelim CPI m/m    0.2% 0.1%
10:30pm CAD        GDP m/m    0.1% 0.0%
10:30pm CAD        RMPI m/m    1.4% -5.2%
10:30pm CAD        IPPI m/m    0.4% -0.2%
10:30pm USD        Advance GDP q/q    1.6% 1.9%
10:30pm USD        Advance GDP Price Index q/q    2.0% 2.0%
10:30pm USD        Employment Cost Index q/q    0.5% 0.6%
11:45pm USD        Chicago PMI    60.2 61.1
11:55pm USD        Revised UoM Consumer Sentiment    64.1 63.8
11:55pm USD        Revised UoM Inflation Expectations     3.4%

NOTES:
1. Check the Dividend & Reporting section for your stock on this site before trading
2. Prices may change as this report is written while markets are closing/trading
3. Always think things out for yourself, we are only here to bounce ideas around.

Good Morning & Good Luck!

EarlyBird Report – 28 July

Dow Jones Index -1.59% 12,300
US Dollar Index +0.76% 74.08
US August Gold (Globex) 1613
WTI Oil (Globex) 97.30
Copper (Globex) 442
US BHP -1.53% 92.91
Base Metals: Negative
AUDUSD 1.10
EURUSD 1.4365
SPI 4450
ASX200 4537

US News Wire
Treasury prices slipped Wednesday because of a mediocre five-year note auction and another day of continued political gridlock about raising the debt ceiling.

Yet the selling was partly offset when euro-zone sovereign debt problems resurfaced in the afternoon, spooking some investors into buying Treasurys.

The two-way flows underscore the dilemma confronting global market participants--while the stalemate in Washington puts the value of Treasury bonds in question, there are still few, if any, alternatives that can match the depth and liquidity of the Treasury bond market, which has long been considered the go-to safe-haven for investors during times of risk.

Commodities

US Gold Futures 1613
The price failed to get above 1630 the top of subgroup1 (SG1) The aim is to trade it from 1600 to the top of SG1 exit and then wait to see if support comes in, if not a larger correction at 1600 will unfold. So now is the waiting, a move under 1610 brings it back to 1600.

Oil WTI (Globex Futures) 97.38
Oil follows stock and would see the oil price lower firstly at 9650 and possibly 95, this should also follow the correction in Gold, a three wave ABC correction while US and UK indices complete the Wave E of a Large Triangle

Base Metals

US Spot Prices (24HR in l/b)
US Copper:           Last: 4.40-
US Nickel:             Last: 11.01+
US Zinc:                Last: 1.12+
US Aluminium       Last: 1.17-

Copper (Globex Futures) 442
As mentioned yesterday, the TradingLevels Classic pattern, the arrival (450) the reaction then support, we are still in the reaction looking for support. Other metals such as nickel held up well and with copper we can look for support at the 440 - 338

Forex

US Dollar Futures (c) DXY 74.26
The low of wave three into the 73.50 we were talking of yesterday in now in place and the Wave (iv) up to the wave four of once lesser degree 74.50. The current wave four up should be in three swings, abc, this current move up is the first wave a

EURUSD 1.4365

TradingLevels: While the Euro is above 140 the structure up is positive. We can expect a move down to 14272 then a retest of 144.
Trade Strategy: Consider this move down Wave a of a abc correction, the Wave a low should be around the 14272 SG2 – 143 then a bounce up in three waves for Wave b, 50% of Wave a then the Wave c back down to the Wave a low 14272 area or lower. Once this abc is completed then a push higher

AUDUSD 1.10

TradingLevels: The abc pattern is unfolding across 1.10, expect the price back to 10950
Elliott Wave: abc wave four pullback across mTL1 / 1.10 this is a normal and standard process.
Trade Strategy: Same - Traders with the longer term trade from 106 can start scaling out into 110 and after the abc correction at 110 move back, once the price is supported. Sub and Micro traders trade the levels. But expect corrective price action into the 10972 group2 and the Midpoint 10950 zone

Indices

Dow Jones Futures CFD 12,300

TradingLevels:
Yesterday we talked of a move down to 12300, however looking at the internal structure the current move can move lower, the 61.8% retracement is 12200 a move below the 12100 places the Dow into a more serious top, we need for the other markets to play out, that is the SP500 FSTE Dollar
Elliott Wave: ABC pull back to 12200 - 12172
Trade Strategy: Same - Under 12500 is at least minimum short term bearish

S&P500 CFDs 1,300

TradingLevels:
Counting five wave down from the 1350 last high, which should see the end of the five waves inSG2 1272 – 1280. The move down last night is the strong third and the low of the third will be the bounce off 1300, the bounce will be the wave four and the wave five down through 1300 to 1280 area. Once this is completed we should see a move up
Trade Strategy: Bounce off 1300 then down through 1300 to complete the large triangle wave E, we will talk about this and the bigger picture in the video

FTSE 100 Futures 5800

TradingLevels: Work a short trade around the 5800, expect bounce off 5800 then a move down through then the retest of 5800 as resistance.
Elliott Wave: On the daily chart the SP500 and the FSTE have the same pattern that is the large triangle, so the current move down is the Wave E
Trade Strategy: Wait for 5800 to lock in as resistance to trade short ranges short, sublevels

SPI Futures 4440

TradingLevels: Under 4500 is bearish, expect a bounce off 4400 then down again
Elliott Wave: We are seeing a larger five waves down from the 4600, the price is well into wave three to 4400 then a wave four bounce and a wave five down
Trade Strategy: Short with a bounce off 4400 then down again for wave five

Summary

The SP500 and the FSTE are moving down to complete a larger Wave E of a Triangle, however we need to talk about this in the video, as mentioned early in the month, we have had these triangle looking patterns before at the 2007 highs, these current patterns in the US and UK Indices are the same looking patterns, so we need to talk about these patterns and where to draw the line and develop trading tactics for long term moves.

The 61.8% for the Dow is at 12200 the current price is 12300, the SP500 is expected to move lower to 1280/72 SG2 after a bounce off 1300.
The ASX200 will move under 4500 and as you know under the 500 be it the Dow under 12500 or the ASX200 under 4500 is a bearish signal, it is also the breaking of the 61.8% retracement level. when working around large levels like 4500, we use and work the first sublevels in this case the SG2 4480 I 4472 I 4465 from a trading point of view if and when the 4472 is retested as resistance, we would use the 4465 as the trigger to short, this is basic strategy and van be view in other ways and refined, the bigger picture once the price has given the 4500 a solid retest and is failing we need to be net short.

As mentioned yesterday in the Day Trading section on the site, hedging was best done with the SPI, simply because the sellers would be there first, stocks had upside momentum that has and will change somewhat today. The point is the price being under 4500 is not a good look for long positions; this is the cutting point, it is better to pay small brokerage than sweating it out watching profits turn into losses. Don’t get caught in the car head lights, be proactive and set orders up in front of the market

Trading Quote
"Every man takes the limits of his own field of vision for the limits of the world."

Today's Financial Events
Time     Currency   Detail     Forecast   Previous

7:00am NZD        Official Cash Rate    2.50% 2.50%
7:00am NZD        RBNZ Rate Statement
9:50am JPY        Retail Sales y/y    -0.6% -1.3%
5:55pm EUR        German Unemployment Change    -16K -8K
8:00pm GBP        CBI Realized Sales    2 -2
10:30pm USD        Unemployment Claims    412K 418K
12:00am USD        Pending Home Sales m/m    -1.0% 8.2%
12:30am USD        Natural Gas Storage     60B

NOTES:
1. Check the Dividend & Reporting section for your stock on this site before trading
2. Prices may change as this report is written while markets are closing/trading
3. Always think things out for yourself, we are only here to bounce ideas around.

Good Morning & Good Luck!

EarlyBird Report – 27 July

Dow Jones Index -0.73% 12,501
US Dollar Index -0.79% 73.52
US August Gold (Globex) 1615
WTI Oil (Globex) 99.50
Copper (Globex) 447
US BHP +1.05% 94.84
Base Metals: Positive
AUDUSD 1.0842
EURUSD 1.45
SPI 4520
ASX200 4573

US News Wire
A broadly weaker U.S. dollar amid stalled U.S. debt ceiling negotiations triggered a rally for emerging-market currencies Tuesday, with some Latin American currencies hitting multi-year highs.

Emerging-market debt, meanwhile, saw little change on the day, weakening only slightly against U.S. Treasury’s. The risk premium, or spread, on the J.P. Morgan Emerging Market Bond Index Global widened just by two basis points to 302 basis points over Treasury’s. In price terms, its index rose 0.1%.

U.S. policymakers remain at an impasse in talks to reduce the deficit and in turn raise the debt ceiling limit before the Aug. 2 deadline. Both Moody's Investors Service and Standard & Poor's have placed the U.S. credit rating on review for a potential downgrade. Investors Tuesday fled out of the dollar, sending the euro up more than 1% against the U.S. currency and adding to emerging-market currencies' gains.

Commodities

US Gold Futures 1615
The small pattern sitting on 1610 over the last few sessions is corrective a small abc three swing pattern, therefor the price should push up from here. Remember is the top of subgroup1 (SG1) 1630 finds support then this action psychologically separates itself from 1600 and will become part of the 1650, which is a MediumLevel (65)
In terms of trading its mostly always the same, that is trade from the level 1600 in this case to 1230 exit, wait for support on top of SG1 (retests) then move back in through the micro group1 and trade 1650, in most case the next level is the Midpoint 5, which is the second strongest number after 1.
Silver has retested support on ML4/40.00

Oil WTI (Globex Futures) 9950
As you can see, there is no real change here for Oil, the price is still doing its best to get through the Major TradingLevel TL1 / 100 and will continue to follow stock, it was interesting to see OSH and WPL hold their structures in place for the positive side by not moving down and creating overlapping wave structures, cutting it close to the edge. One thing I did notice that is worth pointing out is that BHP in the US is paused to move higher, ready to move through 95 and take out 100, this is going to be good for the ASX Materials sector and the market in general, I feel our current long positions are set to ride this move, we will get a position in the ASX BHP and RIO

Base Metals

US Spot Prices (24HR in l/b)
US Copper:           Last: 4.51+
US Nickel:             Last: 10.91+
US Zinc:                Last: 1.12+
US Aluminium       Last: 1.17+

Copper (Globex Futures) 447
We didn’t have to go down to 430, this means the base metals are strong, the next step is observing the price create a pattern across 450, we can first look to the TradingLevels classic pattern, its quite simple and worth getting your head around, because understanding a few basic pattern certainly helps with entries and stops. The classic pattern, is the arrive’ at the price level, the reaction, sellers waiting at the price point you can always see them sitting in the market depth, the support, the value buyers moving their orders up from the last low, the first high above the level; the last bit of excitement. Then the correction.

Forex

US Dollar Futures (c) DXY 76.63
The trend is trading lower in line with the wave counts, the 7350 to 7330 would be the low of wave three, there is still a fourth and fifth to go. The low will probably be the US Senate resolving the current political debate around debt. But you would also have to think why would the republicans actually agree at all, especially by not agreeing places then closer to power, so don’t assume it will be resolved, let’s check the patterns closer to the date as there will have a strong fast trade either way, it is a place not to over trade and setting orders up to trap the price is sensible

EURUSD

TradingLevels: There is a few ways to apply the wave count, but the point is they all lead to higher levels, so use the levels to trade, the 145 is next, expect and abc or more complication correction before moving higher
Trade Strategy: Try and understand the wave count on the DXY and apply the opposite here, I will go over this in the video. But expect a wave four across 145, then a push up to 146, the annoying thing is the wave four can actually pull back the 144, it may not but we have to accommodate it, the other aspect is wave four can get ugly, a bit like at the last correction a 144 but technical the next one should be bigger?

AUDUSD

TradingLevels: You know there will be selling pressure at MinorLevel 1 (mTL1) 1.10 this is also close to the old high. Expect the TradingLevels Classic pattern across mTL1 /1.10
Elliott Wave: The current high is a wave three, that’s is, start the count from 108, wave one is to 10872 zone wave two back near 10820 and wave three all the way up to the current high, so a wave four ready to unfold,
Trade Strategy: Traders with the longer term trade from 106 can start scaling out into 110 and after the abc correction at 110 move back, once the price is supported. Sub and Micro traders trade the levels. But expect corrective price action into the 10972 group2 zone
11:30am AUD CPI q/q 0.7% 1.6%
11:30am AUD Trimmed Mean CPI q/q 0.7% 0.9%

Indices

Dow Jones Futures CFD 12,500

TradingLevels:
Expect a move through 12500 perhaps to 12400/300 then a move back above 12500
Elliott Wave: The next larger degree of 50 to 618% is 12300
Trade Strategy: Under 12500 is at least minimum short term bearish

S&P500 CFDs 1,330

TradingLevels:
As you can see on our charts the wave 2 pull back is still in play and on the cash SP can move to 1320
Trade Strategy: Wait until wave 2 low is in place and the first small set of five waves (impulse) has started to the upside, another way to view this would wait for a move down to 1320 roughly then a move back above 1320 as support, this test lower then finding support on 1330 is a sign of strength , if this occurs then you have something to work off

FTSE 100 Futures 5920

TradingLevels: Is developing support on 5900 if the price finds support on 5930 then you have the technical catalyst for being long otherwise it will simply drop through 5900
Elliott Wave: You are aware of the larger triangle, but I’m unsure if the last wave E is actually completed, there can be another move down under the last low 5700.. before the triangle is complete, or it can be complete now, so we just have to keep breaking the structure down, first the current move up is only in three waves, that is the move up from 5740, for being long we need to see five waves up, the current pattern sitting on 5900 is likely the wave four, this is why support on 5930 now, is important this is where we can find out what the larger pattern is. And sure the price can go down to 5880 and come back up and find support on 5930, so it’s a waiting game.
Trade Strategy: Wait for 5930 as support to take any long trades

SPI Futures 4450

TradingLevels: Support 4500 The 61.8% is 4472 to 4480 SG2
Elliott Wave: The current pattern down under the 4600 is an abc correction and the 4500 to 4472 is the support zone for the correction to complete
Trade Strategy: A move through SG1 to 4500 and possibly 4480 – 4472, trade sublevels, short trading ranges, scalp until the abc for wave two is completed
11:30am AUD CPI q/q 0.7% 1.6%
11:30am AUD Trimmed Mean CPI q/q 0.7% 0.9%

Summary

Expect the Dow, SP500 and SPI to move lower to complete their current corrections, the SP500 to 1320 the Down to 12300/400 and the SPI 4472/80 this is just a rough guess but these markets are completing their last leg of their corrective patterns, once completed we can expect moves to the upside. These markets may not move as low as this but we need to accommodate this range if they do., we did take a few insurance short trades yesterday to ease and hedge this situation today we will be mainly looking at longs, but I will look for a short or two also.

The base metals are the support. It does appear US BHP is getting ready to break through the 95, if this is occurs it will be the trigger for the upside

Trading Quote
In the business world, the rear-view mirror is always clearer than the windshield.

Today's Financial Events
Time     Currency   Detail     Forecast    Previous

11:00am NZD        NBNZ Business Confidence     46.5
11:30am AUD        CPI q/q    0.7% 1.6%
11:30am AUD        Trimmed Mean CPI q/q    0.7% 0.9%
4:00pm EUR        German Import Prices m/m    0.0% -0.6%
All Day EUR        German Prelim CPI m/m    0.3% 0.1%
6:00pm EUR        M3 Money Supply y/y    2.4% 2.4%
6:00pm EUR        Private Loans y/y    2.8% 2.7%
7:30pm CHF        KOF Economic Barometer    2.13 2.23
8:00pm GBP        CBI Industrial Order Expectations    -2 1
10:30pm USD        Core Durable Goods Orders m/m    0.5% 0.7%
10:30pm USD        Durable Goods Orders m/m    0.4% 2.1%
12:30am USD        Crude Oil Inventories     -3.7M
3:30am GBP        MPC Member Miles Speaks
4:00am USD        Beige Book

NOTES:
1. Check the Dividend & Reporting section for your stock on this site before trading
2. Prices may change as this report is written while markets are closing/trading
3. Always think things out for yourself, we are only here to bounce ideas around.

Good Morning & Good Luck!

EarlyBird Report – 26 July

Dow Jones Index -0.74% 12,586
US Dollar Index -0.24% 74.06
US August Gold (Globex) 1611
WTI Oil (Globex) 99.23
Copper (Globex) 440
US BHP -0.29% 93.86
Base Metals: Mixed to soft
AUDUSD 1.0842
EURUSD 1.4371
SPI 4525
ASX200 4530

US News Wire
U.S. stocks fell Monday, as the deadlock in Washington's debt negotiations left investors uncertain whether the U.S. can avoid a default or a credit downgrade.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average dropped 62 points, or 0.5%, to 12619 in afternoon trading, paring a sizeable morning downdraft that saw the blue-chip index sink as much as 145 points in the first 15 minutes of trading. Debt-ceiling talks between Republicans and Democrats collapsed Friday and showed no progress over the weekend, spurring a flight to safety overnight and in early market action. Worried investors drove gold futures to a new record settlement Monday at $1,612 an ounce.

Commodities

US Gold Futures 1611
The first high above the level is unfolding, once completed a larger correction should unfold.
For the guess work we can use the sublevels SG1 – 1610 I 1620 I 1630, that is, SG1 is likely to contain the price, holding it to the 1600. If the price can find support on top of SG1 1630 then its free to move to 1650, finding support on SG1 is possible, however in trading the levels, the idea is to trade to 1630 and exit, then wait for support, if a good support falls into place then sure move back in and trade to 1650 (MediumLevel) and exit. But the flow is for the price to create a high here just above SG1 then move back to 1600

Oil WTI (Globex Futures) 9923
Interesting, to see stock drop while oil maintain its price, a small sign of strength.
The 100 price point is delivering a strong resistance and being under a level makes any long trade riskier. The OSH and WPL on the local did pull back nearly destroying their small current uptrends, they need to stop in their tracks and head up otherwise they will become short trades WPL 3872 and OSH 656 these price points are about the limit for the downside, If OSH locks under 650 the MediumLevel then it’s a short trade.

Base Metals

US Spot Prices (24HR in l/b)
US Copper:           Last: 4.38=
US Nickel:             Last: 10.76-
US Zinc:                Last: 1.10-
US Aluminium       Last: 1.16+

Copper (Globex Futures) 440
The small pattern over the last few sessions at 440 appears to be corrective, so expect a move down to 430.

Forex

US Dollar Futures (c) DXY 74.26
The sideways pattern over the last few sessions and across the SG1 of 74.00 is corrective and should see a move down through 74 to 7372 or lower. However the 74 obviously has support and will be a tough nut that will show up on the Euro as resistance.
The pattern at SG1 has the look of a wave four, complicated and sideways, the wave five down under 74.00 will be the low of a larger wave three.

EURUSD
TradingLevels: Like the wave four on the US Dollar, the Euro has a wave four at 144.
Trade Strategy: Go long as the price discovers support on 144.

AUDUSD
TradingLevels: The 10872 SG2 is pegging in a top
Elliott Wave: Wave v of i) now an abc correction, a move under 10830 opens a larger price pattern
Trade Strategy: Short term traders will need to work the support once it’s in place 10850, or SG1 of 108

Indices

Dow Jones Futures CFD 12,600
TradingLevels:
The 12800 and 12772 have experienced the first reaction and the support has come in at 12500, so now we will see the retest of 12772, the 12650 is a more subtle point in play, but support on 12650 is a positive. We should also expect more swings in the 12500 – 12800 range. The move down on the Futures market early Monday morning our time created a gap, so the structure is hard to read, so we will have to wait for more price pattern to unfold. The Euro is firm to the upside so this should help and the FSTE as a guide for the European markets has been in a large triangle since the beginning of the year and is now completing, so we can see new highs over the month head. The only problem for the Dow is that its had lower volume since the 15^th of July to now, I will keep an eye on this to see if selling volume moves in.
Elliott Wave: From the 12800 top we are considering the move down and abc correction the 61.8% is roughly the 12500 so under this level is bearish and we need to be short
Trade Strategy: Under 12500 is bearish

S&P500 CFDs 1,340
TradingLevels: As long as the price stays above the 1320 the trend is positive, this is also the 50-62% retracement level and we can expect to see an abc correction
Trade Strategy: No trading strategy as yet until we can understand the actual correction unfolding, meaning it may be completed already or it may move to 1320 first before moving up, in line with the Euro. If in the next session it can establish support on 1340 then great work from there

FTSE 100 Futures 5840
TradingLevels: Give it time to develop support at 5900
Elliott Wave: I think the pattern at 5900 is a wave four, allow three swings, the second is completed. But the reality is that there are three waves up from the last low, so the current trend up can be corrective. On the daily chart the whole top since Jan appears to be a large Triangle ABCDE that is completed, so this last low can be the end of the Triangle
Trade Strategy: Wait and see if 5900 can become the support this can take another session, if so trade long if not stand aside for the time being

SPI Futures 4450
TradingLevels: Support 4500
Elliott Wave: The move down to 4500 is the 50% retracement level, the 61.8% is 4480 the SG2 zone. The move down from 4600 to 4500 is currently in three waves abc, however it can turn into five waves, with the rally bounce off 4500 as a wave four, this would mean a wave five down to 4472 SG2 area, the a abc bounce. Will chat about this in the video
Trade Strategy: The price can move down to 4500 and 4472 before seeing a abc bounce. If however once the market settles in and you see support build on top of SG1 4530 then trade long. just be careful not to lose money in SG1

Summary

We were expecting a reaction at 12800 for the Dow but not as quickly as it was, which affected many markets, mainly finance. However the current moves down are considered corrective but they are still unfolding and we do need to draw the line in the sand and that is 4500 on the ASX200.
Refining that a little further we can allow for a spike down through 4500 into SG2 4472 zone, but after that we would need the price to stabilise back above 4500 as support, if this does not happen and the price locks under the 4500 as resistance then we need to exit our long positions.
As mention, we understood that there would be a correction, but we can only accommodate so much of a retracement, the finance sector is the hardest hit and they would obviously be the first to go and the first to short.

The SP500 is holding up better than the Dow. The US Dollar is expected lower, meaning the Euro and Indices higher.
The base metals are steady, so there are more positives than negatives. It’s really just about give the current corrections down dome time to play out.

Trading Quote
“When emotions interfere with performance, you’ll often find evidence of inadequate training. Psychological assistance can aid the performance of a well-trained professional, but does not substitute for thorough training.”

Today's Financial Events
Time     Currency   Detail     Forecast    Previous
8:45am NZD        Trade Balance    404M 605M
9:50am JPY        CSPI y/y    -0.9% -0.9%
10:00am AUD        CB Leading Index m/m     0.1%
1:05pm AUD        RBA Gov Stevens Speaks
4:00pm CHF        UBS Consumption Indicator     1.91
4:00pm EUR        GfK German Consumer Climate    5.6 5.7
6:30pm GBP        Prelim GDP q/q    0.2% 0.5%
6:30pm GBP        Index of Services 3m/3m    0.9% 0.9%
11:00pm USD        S&P/CS Composite-20 HPI y/y    -4.6% -4.0%
12:00am USD        CB Consumer Confidence    58.1 58.5
12:00am USD        New Home Sales    321K 319K
12:00am USD        Richmond Manufacturing Index    5 3

NOTES:
1. Check the Dividend & Reporting section for your stock on this site before trading
2. Prices may change as this report is written while markets are closing/trading
3. Always think things out for yourself, we are only here to bounce ideas around.

Good Morning & Good Luck!

EarlyBird Report – 25 July

Dow Jones Index -0.34% 12,681
US Dollar Index +0.31% 74.24
US August Gold (Globex) 1590
WTI Oil (Globex) 99.23
Copper (Globex) 440
US BHP -0.71% 94.13
Base Metals: steady
AUDUSD 1.0840
EURUSD 1.4377
SPI 4567
ASX200 4602

US News Wire
The Dow Jones Industrial Average fell 43.25 points, or 0.34%, to 12681.16 and the Standard & Poor's 500-stock index edged up 1.22 points, or 0.09%, to 1345.02. The Nasdaq Composite Index added 24.40 points, or 0.86%, to 2858.83.

The Dow industrials' decline came as most major market indexes around the world finished with gains. Even so, the blue-chip index finished with a strong weekly advance after several days dominated by concerns over debt negotiations in Washington and Brussels. The Dow added 1.6% during the week, and is up 2.2% for July, falling just short of a multiyear high

Initial euphoria over Europe's solution to Greece's debt crisis wore off Friday, sending the euro lower against major currencies as markets questioned whether the fundamental outlook for troubled euro-zone countries had really changed.

On Thursday, European Union leaders reached a comprehensive solution to the Hellenic republic's distressed debt situation, amid fears that Greece's woes could spread to larger European economies such as Spain and Italy. In particular, analysts welcomed plans to expand the scope of the European Financial Stability Facility (EFSF), a funding vehicle that is a linchpin of Europe's efforts to rescue debt-laden countries.
Commodities

US Gold Futures 1588
The abc correction that we tracked unfolding quite neatly, all elements of the abc internal structure were simply and visible.
With the pattern now complete we should see it push higher as indeed it is doing.
We can expect a series of five wave structures upwards of different degrees, in the first small impulse wave is in place.
Trading, using the SG1 1610 I 1620 I 1630 to step up higher of the 1600, the norm is, if the top of SG1 1630 can develop support then the price can get to the Midpoint 1650, however this Midpoint is also the MediumLevel, simply meaning it carries more weight and should expect resistance, it’s 1650, 1720, 1772 and 1800 that are the price points the market will have the most difficulty at and can fail at any of these points.
Just to make things a little more complicated, even though the abc correction is complete, corrections in Elliott are the weakest point, meaning corrections can simply repeat themselves, duplicating, while waiting for other factors to move into place, so this is why the 1630 is a critical step in the process, understanding this allows you to manage risk better, adding and gathering all the little probabilities that produce a positive outcome.

Oil WTI (Globex Futures) 9974
Oil is really trying the get through the front line 100 (TL1) as long as it stays above the first MinorLevel mTL8 / 98.00 the battle is still in play, a retreat to 9650, still has the war in play and a move across this line 9650 will create moves up in stock like OSH abc rally patterns not impulse waves, abc rallies are in three swings up 5-3-5 if this is correct the abc is completed for OSH, what we would like to see is the three wave swing turn into five waves.
The other is WPL we were keeping our fingers crossed for this market to develop support on the MediumLevel ML4 40.00 a move back under 39 and we need to be short, with Oil following stock as a general though, the current high in the Dow 12772 and 12800 will see a reaction as it is, so this reaction dampens the Oil at 100 and the Oil Stocks on the local ASX so we need to be diligent while this unfolds.
One of the hopeful leaders is the Euro, our wave count for this to the upside, if this is correct the US markets will be in harmony with this and therefore the Oil. We will be keeping a close eye on the pull back that OSH and WPL have and what the Euro does in the days ahead, just letting you know where the risk sits technically.

Base Metals

US Spot Prices (24HR in l/b)
US Copper:           Last: 4.38+
US Nickel:             Last: 10.81+
US Zinc:                Last: 1.11+
US Aluminium       Last: 1.14+

Copper (Globex Futures) 440
Following on from Friday, the Copper story can move to 427/8, the line in the sand at the moment is the 440 the pattern sitting on this level is likely to be a wave four, meaning a wave five down into the 430 area.
The Shanghai markets have nearly completed a Motive wave (eight waves, Impulse + abc) That is five waves up from its last lows around the 2610 (2618) the impulse wave is completed and the abc is now in its Wave c once this is completed then this market will push up, the reason I’m mentioning this, is that the Shanghai Copper futures market is growing in size as you can image and has a influence on copper. We also use the Copper market as a guide stick for base metals, which in turn is the ASX Materials sector and so on, the other is the AUDUSD, apart from the AUD carry trade, it’s a commodity dollar.

Forex

US Dollar Futures (c) DXY 74.42
The bounce off 74 and SG1 of 74 is playing out. Its best if we simply observe the bounce rally structure, will it be three waves (abc correction) or five waves (impulse) an abc will see more downside and an Impulse will see more upside.
Currently the move up is three waves, but will it turn into five waves?
A move under 7430 will create the abc and then see further downside.
While the price is above 7430 we can see up side.
The wave count for the Euro is up, so we are expecting the Dollar down, but for trading evidence is what’s required. The Euro back above 144 would also be confirmation.

FX market was mostly consolidating in tight ranges during Asia, which are only corrective waves within larger pattern, which is clearly against the buck. We expect to see further weakness on dollar index, now towards 73.50 that will send other majors higher, such as Euro, Pound, Aud, and Cad. Regarding the Futures market, traders should pay attention to 1354 and then 1367 highs on S&P, where break should be extremely bullish signal for days if not weeks ahead

EURUSD
TradingLevels: The 144 is also a trend line resistance (see hourly chart)
If the price can get back up on 144 as support then find your way in long to 145. The current pattern under the 144 is of primary interest we need to see it as a three wave abc down as it is now and the Dollar is the reverse, if we see five waves down developing in the Euro then we will see either a larger ABC or a top in place.
Trade Strategy: No strategy until the first leg down is completed in either five or three waves, once this is done then we know what we have for the next degree higher in the structure unfolding across 144 level (Fibonacci number)

AUDUSD
TradingLevels: The pattern in the range of 106 and 108 over the July period is the base for a push higher through 110
Elliott Wave: Looking at the 1 hour Elliott chart you can see the trend is in a wave three up
Trade Strategy: Same -Just hold long with your trading method
11:30am AUD PPI q/q 0.6% 1.2%
2:30pm AUD RBA Assist Gov Edey Speaks

Indices

Dow Jones Futures CFD 12,670
TradingLevels: The 12800 is holding firmly as a current high, it has moved up higher in relationship to other indices such as the SP500, the Dow has created five waves from 12300 to 12800 these five waves are a wave five of the larger structure of five wave starting around the 11900 the top at 12800 does satisfy the fives wave up from 11900, so essentially it can be a top, but as mentioned the SP500 has not completed its structure. So the work early next week will be on the Dow’s current sell off that is its internal pattern, as we need to pick up on its golden threat so to speak, I will look into this over the weekend.
Elliott Wave: Five waves up completed, and abc correction unfolding or a more serious top
Trade Strategy: Nil

S&P500 CFDs 1,344
TradingLevels: The Midpoint 1350 held as resistance and the support is the next level down 1330 top of subgroup1. The pattern currently being created under the 1350 is the focus, expect to see three swings abc then a push higher, it’s likely that the 1340 can hold as support, but depend on that, there is the trend line support that is more likely to hold as support around the 1333/5 area a touching here would be the Wave c of an abc correction
Trade Strategy: Long from 1350 as support or long from the competition of the abc correction, that is one more swing down to 1333/5 trendline support area.
The main trend is up in line with the Euro and the US Dollar down

FTSE 100 Futures 5840
TradingLevels: The 5900 is a balance line in the bigger picture back from Jan 2011 so any support here now is very helpful to any upside storey, as long as the price stay above the 5850/30 area there is hope for the upside, a move back under 5800 in the bigger picture creates a bearish outlook.
Elliott Wave: The short term view is looking at the current structure up from the 18^th July, currently its in three waves (abc corrective) will it turn into five waves? (impulse) five waves would establish the 6100 top taken out and the move to 6500 MediumLevel ML65.
This current move up is very much like the SP500 so keep an eye on the Euro, DXY and SP
Trade Strategy: Just allow the market time to allow the price to settle into 5900 a smaller abc correction, its either that or a top is in place…

SPI Futures 4450
TradingLevels: The SPI and the ASX200 are dealing with 4600 and this simply takes time to goes through the process of profit taking, support and accumulation
Elliott Wave: ABC correction across 4600 then up. The Shanghai market is leading in this structure.
Trade Strategy: The short term is overbought, that is the current trend up from 4450 on the Cash market. The SG2 4565 I 4572 I 4580 is the holding zone and the scalpers need to be on the right side of. Expect a swing down again to the 4565 the 50% retracement is at the Midpoint 4550, so this can be the ABC Wave C low before a push up to 4600 again.
11:30am AUD PPI q/q 0.6% 1.2%

Summary

The Dow is leading the US indices and the European Indices, the Dow’s top at 12800 may turn out to be significant, I say this simply by looking at its own self-contained structure.
However, If I look around at other markets such as the US Dollar moving down, this would allow for more room for the Dow to move higher, in line with the Euro.
The other leading indicator is the AUDUSD, its structure has scope to take out the 110, this would create a double top for the AUDUSD and double tops are never the end of a bull run (Gann)
The Shanghai market is another leader in its own way, this market in terms of pattern is leading the ASX slightly it has had five waves up from its lows (as the ASX200 is doing) and after five waves comes the ABC correction then up again, the Shanghai is completing the Wave C of the ABC correction another small push down early in the week then up, our ASX 200 will have its ABC across 4600 then push up, this would be in line with the AUD, so the AUD, Shanghai and the ASX200 are paused to move higher.

So the Dow is and will have a correction at the 12800 as it is, but the underlying global markets have patterns that suggest higher ground. The US earning season is also a driver for its trend and this should continue to be the catalyst we are looking for, there is of course the US senate compromising on its own debt strategies that can create the optimism that will assist markets.

Our current long ASX trades will pull back as the ASX200 flickers around the 4600 is its abc correction partly being created from the Dow at 12800 (mTL8) a profit taking number and the third strongest number. I am hoping the Shanghai markets Wednesday run up will support the ASX 200 in a general sense, the ASX200 should find support at 4550

Trading Quote
“If the markets have a reality all their own, then the reason so many people fail is because they refuse to find out what that substance truly is and adapt to it. Market reality must be something so completely unpalatable or unacceptable to most people that they would rather fail at trading then embrace it. Of course, that is exactly the case. The true reality of trading and the markets as a whole is something that most people would rather die than accept.”

Today's Financial Events
Time    Currency   Detail     Forecast    Previous
11:30am AUD        PPI q/q    0.6% 1.2%
12:30pm JPY        BOJ Gov Shirakawa Speaks
2:30pm AUD        RBA Assist Gov Edey Speaks
6:30pm GBP        BBA Mortgage Approvals    31.3K 30.5K
11:00pm EUR        Belgium NBB Business Climate    -2.2 -1.1

NOTES:
1. Check the Dividend & Reporting section for your stock on this site before trading
2. Prices may change as this report is written while markets are closing/trading
3. Always think things out for yourself, we are only here to bounce ideas around.

Good Morning & Good Luck!

ASX Dividends ASX Reporting

info@tradinglounge.com.au (Administrator ) — Sat, 30 Jul 2011 20:33:17 GMT

ASX Dividends ASX Reporting

Company Ex-date Pay date Amount (cents) Type Franking

Djerriwarrh Investments Limited (DJW) 2 Aug 2011 24 Aug 2011 16.00 Interim 100%
ETS ALCOA INC (ETSALA) 3 Aug 2011 1 Sep 2011 1.16 Interim 0%
Westoz Investment Company Limited (WIC) 3 Aug 2011 16 Aug 2011 8.00 Interim 100%
Singapore Telecommunications (SGT) 4 Aug 2011 26 Aug 2011 N/a Interim 0%
Coal & Allied Industries Limited (CNA) 8 Aug 2011 26 Aug 2011 120.00 Interim 100%
Premium Investors Limited (PRV) 8 Aug 2011 9 Sep 2011 3.50 Interim 100%
eServ Limited (ESV) 10 Aug 2011 23 Aug 2011 12.15 Interim 68%
Amcil Ltd (AMH) 11 Aug 2011 26 Aug 2011 3.50 Interim 100%
Brickworks Investment Company (BKI) 11 Aug 2011 31 Aug 2011 4.00 Interim 100%
Alesco Corporation Limited (ALS) 12 Aug 2011 6 Sep 2011 12.50 Interim 100%
Australian Foundation Investment Company Limited (AFI) 12 Aug 2011 31 Aug 2011 13.00
Interim 100%
Merchant House International Limited (MHI) 15 Aug 2011 25 Aug 2011 0.50 Interim 0%
Korvest Limited (KOV) 19 Aug 2011 8 Sep 2011 15.00 Interim 100%
Tabcorp Holdings Limited (TAH) 19 Aug 2011 23 Sep 2011 24.00 Interim 0%
GUD Holdings Limited (GUD) 24 Aug 2011 14 Sep 2011 35.00 Interim 100%
ANZ CPS2 convertible preference share (ANZPA) 25 Aug 2011 15 Sep 2011 143.30 Interim
100%
Hire Intelligence International Limited (HII) 25 Aug 2011 28 Sep 2011 1.00 Interim 100%
Milton Corporation Limited (MLT) 31 Aug 2011 20 Sep 2011 44.00 Interim 100%
WAM Capital Limited (WAM) 2 Sep 2011 15 Sep 2011 5.00 Interim 100%
Supply Network Solutions (SNL) 5 Sep 2011 23 Sep 2011 3.00 Interim 100%
Westpac TPS Trust (WCTPA) 9 Sep 2011 30 Sep 2011 N/a Interim 0%
Westpac SPS II (WBCPB) 19 Sep 2011 30 Sep 2011 N/a Interim 0%
Cadence Capital Limited (CDM) 22 Sep 2011 6 Oct 2011 6.00 Interim 100%
CBA PERLS III (PCAPA) 23 Sep 2011 6 Oct 2011 N/a Interim 0%
Transpacific Industries Trust (TPAPA) 26 Sep 2011 17 Oct 2011 N/a Interim 100%
Transpacific Industries Trust (TPAPA) 27 Sep 2011 17 Oct 2011 298.00 Final 100%
Cedar Woods Properties Limited (CWP) 10 Oct 2011 31 Oct 2011 N/a Interim 0%
WAM Research Limited (WAX) 10 Oct 2011 21 Oct 2011 3.00 Interim 100%

Reporting
Company Reporting Date Type

Also Check with the ASX.com.au for every stock your trading,
as this list may not be complete

Transurban Group (TCL) 4 Aug 2011 Full Year
Coca-Cola Amatil Limited (CCL) 9 Aug 2011 Interim
Cochlear Limited (COH) 9 Aug 2011 Full Year
Coffey International Limited (COF) 10 Aug 2011 Full Year
Stockland (SGP) 10 Aug 2011 Full Year
Telstra Corporation Limited (TLS) 11 Aug 2011 Full Year
Bunnings Warehouse Property Trust (BWP) 11 Aug 2011 Full Year
Imdex Limited (IMD) 15 Aug 2011 Full Year
Leighton Holdings Limited (LEI) 15 Aug 2011 Full Year
Newcrest Mining Limited (NCM) 15 Aug 2011 Full Year
UGL Limited (UGL) 15 Aug 2011 Full Year
Tabcorp Holdings Limited (TAH) 16 Aug 2011 Full Year
OneSteel Limited (OST) 16 Aug 2011 Full Year
CFS Retail Property Trust (CFX) 16 Aug 2011 Full Year
ConnectEast Group (CEU) 17 Aug 2011 Full Year
DEXUS Property Group (DXS) 17 Aug 2011 Full Year
Fletcher Building Limited (FBU) 17 Aug 2011 Full Year
CSL Limited (CSL) 17 Aug 2011 Full Year
Woodside Petroleum Limited (WPL) 17 Aug 2011 Interim
Santos Limited (STO) 18 Aug 2011 Interim
Adelaide Brighton Limited (ABC) 18 Aug 2011 Interim
ASX Limited (ASX) 18 Aug 2011 Full Year
Downer EDI Limited (DOW) 19 Aug 2011 Full Year
Amcor Limited (AMC) 22 Aug 2011 Full Year
BlueScope Steel (BSL) 22 Aug 2011 Full Year
Cedar Woods Properties Limited (CWP) 23 Aug 2011 Full Year
Mirvac Group (MGR) 23 Aug 2011 Full Year
Origin Energy (ORG) 23 Aug 2011 Full Year
Oil Search Limited (OSH) 23 Aug 2011 Interim
Sonic Healthcare Limited (SHL) 23 Aug 2011 Full Year
Consolidated Media Holdings (CMJ) 23 Aug 2011 Full Year
Suncorp Group Limited (SUN) 24 Aug 2011 Full Year
WorleyParsons Group Limited (WOR) 24 Aug 2011 Full Year
Toll Holdings Limited (TOL) 25 Aug 2011 Full Year
Transfield Services Limited (TSE) 25 Aug 2011 Full Year
Tatts Group Limited (TTS) 25 Aug 2011 Full Year
Perpetual Limited (PPT) 25 Aug 2011 Full Year
PaperlinX Ltd (PPX) 25 Aug 2011 Full Year
Insurance Australia Group Limited (IAG) 25 Aug 2011 Full Year
Collection House Limited (CLH) 25 Aug 2011 Full Year
AGL Energy (AGK) 25 Aug 2011 Full Year
Air New Zealand Limited (AIZ) 25 Aug 2011 Full Year
Aristocrat Leisure Limited (ALL) 25 Aug 2011 Interim
Lend Lease Group Limited (LLC) 26 Aug 2011 Full Year
AWE Limited (AWE) 29 Aug 2011 Full Year
Wasabi Energy Limited (WAS) 30 Aug 2011 Full Year
Paladin Energy Limited (PDN) 31 Aug 2011 Full Year
Colorpak Limited (CKL) 31 Aug 2011 Full Year
Nufarm Ltd (NUF) 27 Sep 2011 Full Year
Bank Of Queensland Limited (BOQ) 13 Oct 2011 Full Year
National Australia Bank Limited (NAB) 27 Oct 2011 Full Year
Westpac Banking Corporation (WBC) 2 Nov 2011 Full Year
Australia & New Zealand Banking Group Limited (ANZ) 3 Nov 2011 Full Year
Orica Limited (ORI) 7 Nov 2011 Full Year
CSR Limited (CSR) 9 Nov 2011 Interim

CFD Trades Report

info@tradinglounge.com.au (Administrator ) — Sun, 31 Jul 2011 22:50:04 GMT

CFD Trades Report

OPEN POSITIONS	CODE	DATE	LONG/SHORT	ENTRY	STOP	ACTION
Profit Targets

Locking in percentage profits Friday through to Tue.
I have also allowed the stops to widen in some cases
because I can see further downside potential, you will
need to make up your own mind on this, otherwise follow
the Daily Robo highs down

	ABC	29-Jul	SHORT	2.68	2.73	Amend
50% 6.50	AQA	29-Jul	SHORT	6.73	7.03	Amend
	ARG	29-Jul	SHORT	5.41	5.51	Amend
	ASX	29-Jul	SHORT	29.99	30.23	Amend
	AWE	29-Jul	SHORT	1.26	1.275	Amend
	BHP	29-Jul	SHORT	42.15	42.23	Amend
	BXB	29-Jul	SHORT	6.88	7.06
	BSL	29-Jul	SHORT	1.16	1.23
	CTX	29-Jul	SHORT	10.94	11.23
	CSL	29-Jul	SHORT	11.19	11.43
	FWD	29-Jul	SHORT	11.49	11.57	Amend
	FBU	29-Jul	SHORT	6.39	6.53
	GNC	29-Jul	SHORT	7.87	8.11
	MAP	29-Jul	SHORT	3.24	3.31
	MGR	29-Jul	SHORT	1.16	1.185	Amend
	MND	29-Jul	SHORT	19.19	19.63	Amend
	OST	29-Jul	SHORT	1.77	1.83	Amend
	WOR	28-Jul	SHORT	28.67	28.43	Amend
	CSL	28-Jul	SHORT	31.34	31.43
	AQP	28-Jul	SHORT	4.39	4.37
	OST	28-Jul	SHORT	1.79	1.86
	NAB	28-Jul	SHORT	24.35	24.43
	MYR	28-Jul	SHORT	2.43	2.43
	MBN	28-Jul	SHORT	1.92	1.93
	MQG	28-Jul	SHORT	29.33	28.57	Amend
50% 4.00	KAR	28-Jul	SHORT	4.77	4.73	Amend
75% 2.00	HVN	28-Jul	SHORT	2.23	2.26	Amend
	CQR	28-Jul	SHORT	3.19	3.23	Amend
	BSL	28-Jul	SHORT	1.21	1.22
	BXB	28-Jul	SHORT	6.99	7.03
	BOQ	28-Jul	SHORT	8.21	8.27
	ARG	28-Jul	SHORT	5.57	5.57	Amend
	AMP	28-Jul	SHORT	4.67	4.67	Amend
Support 2720	WOW	27-Jul	SHORT	27.37	27.33	Amend
	FXJ	26-Jul	SHORT	0.895	0.905	Amend
%@3.00	DJS	26-Jul	SHORT	3.09	3.11
40% 4.03	APA	26-Jul	SHORT	4.12	4.11
	ABC	26-Jul	SHORT	2.77	2.73	Amend
25% 70 50% 72	PEM	20-Jul	LONG	0.66	0.71	Amend

Technical Analysis Report

info@tradinglounge.com.au (Peter ) — Wed, 10 Aug 2011 10:43:40 GMT

Technical Analysis Report

10 August 2011

Commodities

US Gold Futures 1750
The number 72 that is 1720 and 1772 are working well, for some strange reason when you get the extra 7 or 2 like 772 or 272 its much stronger than just having single number. I one the numbers play a part in chart geometry and are part of the 9 series of number, but apart from that I don’t know, but I do know as a trader they should always be used, being on the right side of then in your trade set ups is the starting point and trading to them is the other, in taking profits.
The other point here is the number 8 as 1800 (MinorLevel), I just see it as the profit taking number and the 1800 hasn’t come in to action yet but it will, the point of mentioning it, is another smaller sublevel 8 before the 1800 and that is the 1780 sublevel as part of subgroup2 (SG2). I know I’m rambling on here a little, but understanding these numbers, will improve your own trading, they give you something very real to work with.

Any way SG2 1772 is the natural selling price before the 18000 and this is unfolding with a sell off correction looking for support and the first leg down to 1720 is in five smaller waves so at minimum expect and abc a 5-3-5 structure

Oil WTI (Globex Futures) 78.40
The rally up from the low around the 76.50 to 83 is in three waves, so it’s a corrective rally, sure it can get more complicated of stay simple as an Elliott abc, but the point is that it is corrective a correction and once completed will continue down. The next step is waiting for the Major TradingLevel TL8 / 80.00 to become resistance in a series of failed retests, once you can recognise that it is resistance then you can short or add to shorts. The next degree of price levels lower is the MinorLevel 78 so this also can be used to add to positions and is the normal way of shorting, when working with a level, that is use the next lower degree of level as the trigger.
Oil will follow stock, so be aware of the Dow when it touches TL1 / 10,000 as we are looking for the low of Wave 3 in most indices, with a rally up in to wave 4 and then down into wave 5

Base Metals

US Spot Prices (24HR in l/b)
US Copper:           Last: 3.96-
US Nickel:             Last: 9.63-
US Zinc:                Last: 0.94+
US Aluminium       Last: 1.07+

Copper (Globex Futures) 391
Will go through a process of pattern making that will trap it under the MediumLevel 4 /40 as resistance, yes it may spike to 410 even 420 but in the long run will find the ML4 as the resistance, this will keep the ASX Materials sector pegged and the MediumLevel 11500 will become the centre of attention over the short term ahead.

Forex

US Dollar Futures CFD: DXY 74.50
We should stay with the general premise that the 75 is the line in the sand for the larger direction. The Feds will have their fingers close to the printing press, which doesn’t help in reading the natural flow of the markets, so keep position sizing smaller.
Support, as long as the price stays above the 74 the general support is in place and with the SP500 finishing its rally from yesterday should now see more downside which in turn should se the Dollar push higher. So narrowing the 75 and 74 range into its sublevels, the Midpoint is the centre as support or resistance 74.50 then there is SG1 and SG2, if the SG2 especially the pivot in SG2 74.72 can become support then you have a good chance of the 75 testing as support, if that is the case then scale in through SG1 of 75 (10, 20, 30) you know if the top of SG1 75.30 finds support then it can leave 75. But also understand where the Euro is and the SP500
I have mentioned the long side approach you also need to consider the downside path, as you need to eliminate the guess direction game and trade the support and resistance, getting from one price point to the next is the name of the game.

EURUSD 1.4275
TradingLevels: 144 -140 Range. The 142 has built some support, however the support is the first bounce so more pattern development is required to confirm, so once Japan has opened see how and where the price is sitting, what sublevels, Midpoint first 14250 then SG1 or SG2. If the SG2 14272 can find support then you can look at the long side with the 143 as support in mind. If the Dow is going to rally then the 11500 is the price point so line this up with the Euro, if the Dow moves under 10500 then it’s down to 10,000
Trade Strategy: A move under 142 is the downside trade.

AUDUSD 1.02
TradingLevels: It’s only natural to see a bounce off the Major TradingLevel TL1 / 1.00 and would see another trend up to 104 very roughly
Elliott Wave: The Wave 3 low at TL1 /1.00, the Wave 4 rally is under way and around 104 would be the 38.2% of wave 3 retracement and or the 4^th wave of one lesser degree. An abc corrective rally, the a and b seem completed already. So a wave c up and should be in five waves and approx. the same size as wave a
Trade Strategy: Wave 4 rally, use the sublevels to try and trade to each full point 102 to 103
Expect a small abc at 102, once completed use SG1 to scale in.
Tentative CNY Trade Balance 27.3B 22.3B

Indices

Dow Jones CFD 11,067
TradingLevels: 38.2% retracement is around 11500 the MediumLevel and 1200 on the SP500 as wave 4 once completed the bear market will resume.
Elliott Wave: Consider Wave 3 low in place and the Wave 4 rally is underway
Trade Strategy: Wave 4 should be in three waves abc the Wave a and b are complete so the Wave c should have five small waves taking it to 11500

S&P500 CFDs 1,126
TradingLevels: The low on the cash was 1076 that is 4 points away from our target 1072 but within the SG2 zone
The Minor Wave 3 is complete and the Wave 4 rally is under way, however the rally is already over half way completed the target is the 1200 but the SG2 1172 zone will also offer resistance
Trade Strategy: Looking to short the top of the abc rally into 1200

FTSE 100 CFDs 5250
TradingLevels: The bounce back was normal and we now need to work with Minor Group1 5100, 5200 and 5300, the target is 38.2% of wave 3 that is 5400, so the top of MG1 5300 is the important price point as support or resistance, this is going to be tricky, any way the short term expect a retest of 5200 checking for support before moving higher.
Elliott Wave: Wave 3 completed and Wave 4 under way. The 38.2% retracement is around 5400
Trade Strategy: yes use the MinorLevels but trade the sublevels because we are in a corrective rally.

SPI Futures CFDs 4100
TradingLevels: The 61.8% of the 2009 pegged in a low around the 3800.
Elliott Wave: The low is considered the Wave 3 low and we are in the Wave 4 rally.
Trade Strategy: The Dow’s wave 4 rally can take it back to the 11500 MediumLevel and SP500 to 1200, the ASX200 38.2% rally is 4100, but because of the Dow’s 11500 price point then the 4200 is the probable first target. In terms of trading being above 4000 is positive and use the MinorLevel then the sublevels to trade. But remember the Dow Jones is in a rally to 11500 and once complete the trend down will continue, this is just the bounce off the 10,000 TL1 even though the price only reached 10500
Tentative CNY Trade Balance 27.3B 22.3B

Summary

The Minor Wave 3 low is in place for the Dow and the Wave 4 corrective rally is underway, the 4^th wave of one lesser degree is the target and that is 11500, but can be lower. Once this wave 4 is completed then the bear market will continue back down into 10,000 for the Dow.

Our ASX200 had an early bounce along with Asia; our bounce was off the 3800 target the 61.8% retracement of the 2009 move. We are also considering the bounce here a Wave 3 low in place, even though it will or may past the 38.2% retracement level 4100 wave four’s normally have, we are staying with the main trend down but expect a move higher to 4200 plus. In terms of trading while the market is above 4000 is has a positive bias, that said we also need to consider that the main trend is down and not to get lost in buying, thinking you’re missing out on something. Sure trade long, but know where you are and what you’re doing, what price points you are working off and what price points you will exit at when reached.

For a positive market the Dow would require solid support on 11500 and the SP500 support on 1200.

Trading Quote
"If rule governance and conscientiousness in following rules is associated with market success, then traders want to use emotions to trigger greater attentiveness to plans and rules. This means creating associative cues between emotional arousal and the behaviours responsible for trading success." Brett N. Steenbarger

Today's Financial Events
Time     Currency   Detail     Forecast    Previous

9:50am JPY       Core Machinery Orders m/m    1.9% 3.0%
11:00am AUD        MI Inflation Expectations     3.4%
11:30am AUD        Employment Change    10.3K 23.4K
11:30am AUD        Unemployment Rate    4.9% 4.9%
10th-16th CNY        Foreign Direct Investment ytd/y     18.4%
4:00pm EUR        German WPI m/m    -0.3% -0.6%
6:00pm EUR        ECB Monthly Bulletin
7:00pm GBP        CB Leading Index m/m     0.6%
10:30pm CAD        Trade Balance    -0.9B -0.8B
10:30pm CAD        NHPI m/m   0.5% 0.4%
10:30pm USD        Trade Balance    -47.5B -50.2B
10:30pm USD        Unemployment Claims    402K 400K
12:30am USD        Natural Gas Storage     44B

NOTES:
1. Check the Dividend & Reporting section for your stock on this site before trading
2. Prices may change as this report is written while markets are closing/trading
3. Always think things out for yourself, we are only here to bounce ideas around.

Good Morning & Good Luck!

Technical Analysis Report

Financial Events

info@tradinglounge.com.au (Peter ) — Sat, 13 Aug 2011 20:22:21 GMT

9:01am GBP        Rightmove HPI m/m
9:50am JPY        Prelim GDP q/q    -0.6% -0.9%
9:50am JPY        Prelim GDP Price Index y/y    -1.7% -1.9%
11:30am AUD        New Motor Vehicle Sales m/m     1.3%
15th-16th CNY        Foreign Direct Investment ytd/y     18.4%
All Day EUR        French Bank Holiday
All Day EUR        Italian Bank Holiday
5:15pm CHF        PPI m/m    -0.5% -0.5%
10:30pm CAD        New Motor Vehicle Sales m/m    2.4% -6.1%
10:30pm USD        Empire State Manufacturing Index    0.8 -3.8
11:00pm USD        TIC Long-Term Purchases    30.4B 23.6B
Tue
Aug 16 12:00am USD        NAHB Housing Market Index    15 15
16th-19th GBP        Nationwide Consumer Confidence     51
11:30am AUD        Monetary Policy Meeting Minutes
12:00pm CNY        CB Leading Index m/m     0.5%
4:00pm EUR        German Prelim GDP q/q    0.5% 1.5%
6:30pm GBP        CPI y/y    4.3% 4.2%
6:30pm GBP        RPI y/y    5.0% 5.0%
6:30pm GBP        Core CPI y/y    3.1% 2.8%
6:30pm GBP        DCLG HPI y/y    0.9% -1.6%
7:00pm EUR        Flash GDP q/q    0.3% 0.8%
7:00pm EUR        Trade Balance    0.3B -0.6B
Tentative GBP        BOE Inflation Letter
10:30pm CAD        Manufacturing Sales m/m    -0.3% -0.8%
10:30pm USD        Building Permits    0.61M 0.62M
10:30pm USD        Housing Starts    0.60M 0.63M
10:30pm USD        Import Prices m/m    0.0% -0.5%
11:15pm USD        Capacity Utilization Rate    77.0% 76.7%
11:15pm USD        Industrial Production m/m    0.5% 0.2%
Wed
Aug 17 Tentative USD        Loan Officer Survey
8:45am NZD        PPI Input q/q    1.2% 2.2%
8:45am NZD        PPI Output q/q    0.8% 1.7%
10:30am AUD        MI Leading Index m/m     -0.1%
11:30am AUD        Wage Price Index q/q    0.9% 0.8%
5:30pm USD        PPI m/m    0.0% -0.4%
6:00pm EUR        Current Account    -3.6B -5.2B
6:30pm GBP        Claimant Count Change    20.2K 24.5K
6:30pm GBP        MPC Meeting Minutes    2-0-7 2-0-7
6:30pm GBP        Average Earnings Index 3m/y    2.3% 2.3%
6:30pm GBP        Unemployment Rate    7.7% 7.7%
7:00pm EUR        CPI y/y    2.5% 2.5%
7:00pm EUR        Core CPI y/y    1.7% 1.6%
10:30pm CAD        Foreign Securities Purchases    10.33B 15.40B
10:30pm USD        Core PPI m/m    0.2% 0.3%
Thu
Aug 18 12:30am USD        Crude Oil Inventories     -5.2M
9:50am JPY        Trade Balance    -0.12T -0.19T
6:30pm GBP        Retail Sales m/m    0.3% 0.7%
10:30pm CAD        Leading Index m/m    0.5% 0.2%
10:30pm CAD        Wholesale Sales m/m    1.5% 1.9%
10:30pm USD        Core CPI m/m    0.2% 0.3%
10:30pm USD        Unemployment Claims    403K 395K
10:30pm USD        CPI m/m    0.2% -0.2%
10:35pm USD        FOMC Member Dudley Speaks
Fri
Aug 19 12:00am USD        Existing Home Sales    4.92M 4.77M
12:00am USD        Philly Fed Manufacturing Index    4.2 3.2
12:00am USD        CB Leading Index m/m    0.2% 0.3%
12:30am CAD        BOC Review
12:30am USD        Natural Gas Storage     25B
8:45am NZD        Visitor Arrivals m/m     -5.1%
1:00pm NZD        Credit Card Spending y/y     4.5%
2:30pm JPY        All Industries Activity m/m    2.3% 2.0%
4:00pm EUR        German PPI m/m    0.2% 0.1%
6:30pm GBP        Public Sector Net Borrowing    0.4B 12.0B
9:00pm CAD        Core CPI m/m    0.2% -0.6%
9:00pm CAD        CPI m/m    0.2% -0.7%
10:30pm USD        FOMC Member Dudley Speaks

Financial Events

ASX Company Dividend

info@tradinglounge.com.au (Peter ) — Sat, 13 Aug 2011 20:31:10 GMT

Company Ex-date Pay date Amount (cents) Type Franking

Commonwealth Bank Of Australia (CBA) 15 Aug 2011 6 Oct 2011 188.00 Interim 100%
Bradken Limited (BKN) 15 Aug 2011 19 Sep 2011 21.00 Interim 100%
Hyperion Flagship Investments Ltd (HIP) 15 Aug 2011 9 Sep 2011 4.25 Interim 88%
Merchant House International Limited (MHI) 15 Aug 2011 25 Aug 2011 0.50 Interim 0%
Alumina Limited (AWC) 16 Aug 2011 7 Sep 2011 2.90 Interim 100%
Computershare Limited (CPU) 16 Aug 2011 13 Sep 2011 14.00 Interim 60%
Reckon Limited (RKN) 17 Aug 2011 9 Sep 2011 3.50 Interim 90%
JB Hi-Fi (JBH) 17 Aug 2011 2 Sep 2011 29.00 Interim 100%
Diversified United Investment Limited (DUI) 18 Aug 2011 20 Sep 2011 7.00 Interim 100%
Australian United Investment Company Limited (AUI) 18 Aug 2011 20 Sep 2011 14.50
Interim 100%
Argo Investments Limited (ARG) 18 Aug 2011 7 Sep 2011 13.00 Interim 100%
My Net Fone Ltd (MNF) 19 Aug 2011 8 Sep 2011 0.80 Interim 0%
Korvest Limited (KOV) 19 Aug 2011 8 Sep 2011 15.00 Interim 100%
Tabcorp Holdings Limited (TAH) 19 Aug 2011 23 Sep 2011 24.00 Interim 0%
Mount Gibson Iron Ltd (MGX) 22 Aug 2011 9 Sep 2011 4.00 Interim 100%
Telstra Corporation Limited (TLS) 22 Aug 2011 23 Sep 2011 14.00 Interim 100%
STW Communications Group Limited (SGN) 22 Aug 2011 9 Sep 2011 3.00 Interim 100%
Talent2 International Ltd (TWO) 23 Aug 2011 30 Sep 2011 5.50 Interim 100%
Royalco Resources Limited (RCO) 23 Aug 2011 5 Sep 2011 2.00 Interim 100%
Domino's Pizza Enterprises (DMP) 24 Aug 2011 15 Sep 2011 11.50 Interim 100%
GUD Holdings Limited (GUD) 24 Aug 2011 14 Sep 2011 35.00 Interim 100%
ANZ CPS2 convertible preference share (ANZPA) 25 Aug 2011 15 Sep 2011 143.30
Hire Intelligence International Limited (HII) 25 Aug 2011 28 Sep 2011 1.00 Interim 100%
Cochlear Limited (COH) 26 Aug 2011 22 Sep 2011 120.00 Interim 70%
AngloGold Ltd (AGG) 29 Aug 2011 9 Sep 2011 N/a Interim 0%
Bendigo and Adelaide Bank Limited (BEN) 29 Aug 2011 30 Sep 2011 30.00 Interim 100%
Milton Corporation Limited (MLT) 31 Aug 2011 20 Sep 2011 44.00 Interim 100%
Colorpak Limited (CKL) 2 Sep 2011 4 Oct 2011 1.75 Interim 100%
WAM Capital Limited (WAM) 2 Sep 2011 15 Sep 2011 5.00 Interim 100%
Aquarius Platinum Limited (AQP) 5 Sep 2011 30 Sep 2011 N/a Interim 0%
Supply Network Solutions (SNL) 5 Sep 2011 23 Sep 2011 3.00 Interim 100%
News Corporation Class A (non-voting) (NWSLV) 8 Sep 2011 19 Oct 2011 N/a Interim 0%
News Corporation Class B (voting) (NWS) 8 Sep 2011 19 Oct 2011 N/a Interim 0%
FlexiGroup Limited (FXL) 8 Sep 2011 13 Oct 2011 5.50 Interim 100%
Westpac TPS Trust (WCTPA) 9 Sep 2011 30 Sep 2011 N/a Interim 0%
Codan Limited (CDA) 9 Sep 2011 3 Oct 2011 5.00 Interim 100%
Oakton Computing Ltd (OKN) 12 Sep 2011 30 Sep 2011 5.00 Interim 100%
Westpac SPS II (WBCPB) 19 Sep 2011 30 Sep 2011 N/a Interim 0%
Webjet Ltd (WEB) 19 Sep 2011 7 Oct 2011 6.00 Interim 100%
Cadence Capital Limited (CDM) 22 Sep 2011 6 Oct 2011 6.00 Interim 100%
CBA PERLS III (PCAPA) 23 Sep 2011 6 Oct 2011 N/a Interim 0%
Transpacific Industries Trust (TPAPA) 26 Sep 2011 17 Oct 2011 N/a Interim 100%
Transpacific Industries Trust (TPAPA) 27 Sep 2011 17 Oct 2011 298.00 Final 100%
AVJennings Homes Limited (AVJ) 28 Sep 2011 19 Oct 2011 1.50 Interim 100%
Nick Scali Limited (NCK) 30 Sep 2011 31 Oct 2011 4.50 Interim 100%
Cedar Woods Properties Limited (CWP) 10 Oct 2011 31 Oct 2011 N/a Interim 0%
WAM Research Limited (WAX) 10 Oct 2011 21 Oct 2011 3.00 Interim 100%
PERPETUAL EXCHANGEABLE RESALE LISTED SECURITIES (CBAPB) 18 Oct 2011 31 Oct 2011 209.88 Interim 100%
CBA PERLS V (CBAPA) 18 Oct 2011 31 Oct 2011 291.01 Interim 100%
Tamawood Ltd (TWD) 14 Nov 2011 2 Dec 2011 13.00 Interim 100%

ASX Company Dividend

ASX Company Reporting

info@tradinglounge.com.au (Peter ) — Sat, 13 Aug 2011 20:41:00 GMT

Reporting
Company Reporting Date Type

Also Check with the ASX.com.au for every stock your trading,
as this list may not be complete

Ansell Limited (ANN) 15 Aug 2011 Full Year
iiNET Limited (IIN) 15 Aug 2011 Full Year
Imdex Limited (IMD) 15 Aug 2011 Full Year
Leighton Holdings Limited (LEI) 15 Aug 2011 Full Year
Newcrest Mining Limited (NCM) 15 Aug 2011 Full Year
UGL Limited (UGL) 15 Aug 2011 Full Year
OneSteel Limited (OST) 16 Aug 2011 Full Year
Oz Minerals Limited (OZL) 16 Aug 2011 Interim
Tabcorp Holdings Limited (TAH) 16 Aug 2011 Full Year
Macmahon Holdings Limited (MAH) 16 Aug 2011 Full Year
GWA Group (GWA) 16 Aug 2011 Full Year
CFS Retail Property Trust (CFX) 16 Aug 2011 Full Year
Commonwealth Property Office Fund (CPA) 16 Aug 2011 Full Year
Biota Holdings Limited (BTA) 17 Aug 2011 Full Year
CSL Limited (CSL) 17 Aug 2011 Full Year   Boral Limited (BLD) 17 Aug 2011 Full Year
Henderson Group Plc (HGG) 17 Aug 2011 Interim
Fletcher Building Limited (FBU) 17 Aug 2011 Full Year
DEXUS Property Group (DXS) 17 Aug 2011 Full Year
SMS Management and Technology Limited (SMX) 17 Aug 2011 Full Year
Woodside Petroleum Limited (WPL) 17 Aug 2011 Interim
Wesfarmers Limited (WES) 18 Aug 2011 Full Year
REA Group (REA) 18 Aug 2011 Full Year
Platinum Asset Management Limited (PTM) 18 Aug 2011 Full Year
Goodman Group (GMG) 18 Aug 2011 Full Year
Ardent Leisure Group (AAD) 18 Aug 2011 Full Year
InvoCare Limited (IVC) 18 Aug 2011 Interim
INDUSTREA LIMITED (IDL) 18 Aug 2011 Full Year
APN News & Media Limited (APN) 18 Aug 2011 Interim
ASX Limited (ASX) 18 Aug 2011 Full Year
Adelaide Brighton Limited (ABC) 18 Aug 2011 Interim
AMP Limited (AMP) 18 Aug 2011 Interim
Billabong International Ltd (BBG) 19 Aug 2011 Full Year
Austal Limited (ASB) 19 Aug 2011 Full Year
Boart Longyear Limited (BLY) 19 Aug 2011 Interim
Duet Group (DUE) 19 Aug 2011 Full Year
Fortescue Metals Group (FMG) 19 Aug 2011 Full Year
Spotless Group Limited (SPT) 19 Aug 2011 Full Year
Santos Limited (STO) 19 Aug 2011 Interim
Tassal Group Limited (TGR) 22 Aug 2011 Full Year
Treasury Wine Estates (TWE) 22 Aug 2011 Full Year
Fleetwood Corporation Limited (FWD) 22 Aug 2011 Full Year
McPherson's Limited (MCP) 22 Aug 2011 Full Year
BlueScope Steel (BSL) 22 Aug 2011 Full Year
Challenger Financial Services Group (CGF) 22 Aug 2011 Full Year
Caltex Australia Limited (CTX) 22 Aug 2011 Interim
Amcor Limited (AMC) 22 Aug 2011 Full Year
Charter Hall Retail REIT (CQR) 23 Aug 2011 Full Year
Mirvac Group (MGR) 23 Aug 2011 Full Year
Cedar Woods Properties Limited (CWP) 23 Aug 2011 Full Year
Foster's Group Limited (FGL) 23 Aug 2011 Full Year
Hills Holdings Limited (HIL) 23 Aug 2011 Full Year
Whitehaven Coal Limited (WHC) 23 Aug 2011 Full Year
Oil Search Limited (OSH) 23 Aug 2011 Interim
Sonic Healthcare Limited (SHL) 23 Aug 2011 Full Year
Consolidated Media Holdings (CMJ) 23 Aug 2011 Full Year
Origin Energy (ORG) 23 Aug 2011 Full Year
Pacific Brands Limited (PBG) 24 Aug 2011 Full Year
Qantas Airways Limited (QAN) 24 Aug 2011 Full Year
Super Retail Group Limited (SUL) 24 Aug 2011 Full Year
Suncorp Group Limited (SUN) 24 Aug 2011 Full Year
WorleyParsons Group Limited (WOR) 24 Aug 2011 Full Year
Transpacific Industries Group Ltd (TPI) 24 Aug 2011 Full Year
Wotif.com Holdings Ltd (WTF) 24 Aug 2011 Full Year
Seven West Media (SWM) 24 Aug 2011 Full Year
Skilled Engineering Limited (SKE) 24 Aug 2011 Full Year
Downer EDI Limited (DOW) 24 Aug 2011 Full Year
Southern Cross Media Group Limited (SXL) 24 Aug 2011 Full Year
Charter Hall Office REIT (CQO) 24 Aug 2011 Full Year
Asciano Group (AIO) 24 Aug 2011 Full Year
Ausenco Ltd (AAX) 24 Aug 2011 Interim
Customers Ltd (CUS) 24 Aug 2011 Full Year
APA Group (APA) 24 Aug 2011 Full Year
Charter Hall Group (CHC) 25 Aug 2011 Full Year
Collection House Limited (CLH) 25 Aug 2011 Full Year
Clough Limited (CLO) 25 Aug 2011 Full Year
Cabcharge Australia Limited (CAB) 25 Aug 2011 Full Year
AGL Energy (AGK) 25 Aug 2011 Full Year
Air New Zealand Limited (AIZ) 25 Aug 2011 Full Year
Aristocrat Leisure Limited (ALL) 25 Aug 2011 Interim
IOOF Holdings Limited (IFL) 25 Aug 2011 Full Year
Iluka Resources (ILU) 25 Aug 2011 Interim
FKP Ltd (FKP) 25 Aug 2011 Full Year
Crown Ltd (CWN) 25 Aug 2011 Full Year
Transfield Services Limited (TSE) 25 Aug 2011 Full Year
Tatts Group Limited (TTS) 25 Aug 2011 Full Year
Virgin Blue (b) 25 Aug 2011 Full Year
Woolworths Limited (WOW) 25 Aug 2011 Full Year
Toll Holdings Limited (TOL) 25 Aug 2011 Full Year
Ramsay Health Care Limited (RHC) 25 Aug 2011 Full Year
PaperlinX Ltd (PPX) 25 Aug 2011 Full Year
Pan Australian Resources NL (PNA) 25 Aug 2011 Interim
Insurance Australia Group Limited (IAG) 25 Aug 2011 Full Year
Perpetual Limited (PPT) 26 Aug 2011 Full Year
Sims Metal Management (SGM) 26 Aug 2011 Full Year
Spark Infrastructure Group (SKI) 26 Aug 2011 Full Year
GPT Group Limited (GPT) 26 Aug 2011 Interim
Fairfax Media Limited (FXJ) 26 Aug 2011 Full Year
Lend Lease Group Limited (LLC) 26 Aug 2011 Full Year
Acrux Limited (ACR) 26 Aug 2011 Full Year
AWE Limited (AWE) 29 Aug 2011 Full Year
Macquarie Atlas Roads (MQA) 29 Aug 2011 Interim
Goodman Fielder Ltd (GFF) 29 Aug 2011 Full Year
Hastie Group Limited (HST) 29 Aug 2011 Full Year
QR National (QRN) 29 Aug 2011 Full Year
Wasabi Energy Limited (WAS) 30 Aug 2011 Full Year
Infigen Energy (IFN) 30 Aug 2011 Full Year
Independence Gold NL (IGO) 31 Aug 2011 Full Year
Paladin Energy Limited (PDN) 31 Aug 2011 Full Year
Nufarm Ltd (NUF) 27 Sep 2011 Full Year
Sigma Pharmaceuticals Limited (SIP) 28 Sep 2011 Interim
Sundance Resources Ltd (SDL) 30 Sep 2011 Full Year
Paladin Energy Limited (PDN) 30 Sep 2011 Full Year
Bank Of Queensland Limited (BOQ) 13 Oct 2011 Full Year
Ten Network Holdings Limited (TEN) 21 Oct 2011 Full Year
National Australia Bank Limited (NAB) 27 Oct 2011 Full Year
Macquarie Group Limited (MQG) 28 Oct 2011 Interim
Westpac Banking Corporation (WBC) 2 Nov 2011 Full Year
Australia & New Zealand Banking Group Limited (ANZ) 3 Nov 2011 Full Year
Orica Limited (ORI) 7 Nov 2011 Full Year
SP AusNet (SPN) 9 Nov 2011 Full Year
CSR Limited (CSR) 9 Nov 2011 Interim
DuluxGroup (DLX) 14 Nov 2011 Full Year
James Hardie Industries Limited (JHX) 17 Nov 2011 Interim
Programmed Maintenance Services Limited (PRG) 23 Nov 2011 Interim
Metcash (MTS) 29 Nov 2011 Interim
Campbell Brothers Limited (CPB) 29 Nov 2011 Interim

ASX Company Reporting

CFD Trading Strategies

info@tradinglounge.com.au (Peter ) — Thu, 18 Aug 2011 21:22:08 GMT

CFD Trading Strategies

OPEN POSITIONS	CODE	DATE	LONG/SHORT	ENTRY	STOP
Profit Targets

	AWC	8-Aug	SHORT	1.79	2.03
	NUF	8-Aug	SHORT	3.99	4.13
	AWC	9-Aug	SHORT	1.76	2.03
	AMP	9-Aug	SHORT	3.99	4.27
	AGO	9-Aug	SHORT	3.46	3.97
	DJS	9-Aug	SHORT	2.66	2.93
	HVN	9-Aug	SHORT	1.82	2.11
	QBE	9-Aug	SHORT	14.12	14.76
	CPU	8-Aug	SHORT	7.33	7.47
	SEK	5-Aug	SHORT	6.25	6.23
	QAN	5-Aug	SHORT	1.75	1.67
	ORI	5-Aug	SHORT	24.47	25.13
	AMP	3-Aug	SHORT	4.43	4.27
	BBG	3-Aug	SHORT	5.74	5.37
	CAB	3-Aug	SHORT	4.89	4.87
	CPU	3-Aug	SHORT	8.12	7.47
	HVN	3-Aug	SHORT	2.14	2.07
	MBN	3-Aug	SHORT	1.915	1.83
	MYR	3-Aug	SHORT	2.24	2.33
	OST	3-Aug	SHORT	1.73	1.57
	PNA	3-Aug	SHORT	4.03	3.83
	PDN	3-Aug	SHORT	2.63	2.37
	QBE	3-Aug	SHORT	16.16	14.23
	STO	3-Aug	SHORT	12.89	12.57
	BSL	29-Jul	SHORT	1.16	0.97
	BSL	28-Jul	SHORT	1.21	0.97
	DJS	26-Jul	SHORT	3.09	2.87
CFD Trading Strategies

ASX Dividends

info@tradinglounge.com.au (Peter ) — Fri, 19 Aug 2011 21:25:52 GMT

ASX Dividends

Woodside Petroleum Limited (WPL) 22 Aug 2011 30 Sep 2011 52.55 Interim 100%
Greencross Limited (GXL) 22 Aug 2011 16 Sep 2011 3.00 Interim 100%
UGL Limited (UGL) 22 Aug 2011 8 Sep 2011 38.00 Interim 100%
Mount Gibson Iron Ltd (MGX) 22 Aug 2011 9 Sep 2011 4.00 Interim 100%
Telstra Corporation Limited (TLS) 22 Aug 2011 23 Sep 2011 14.00 Interim 100%
STW Communications Group Limited (SGN) 22 Aug 2011 9 Sep 2011 3.00 Interim 100%
Watpac Limited (WTP) 23 Aug 2011 9 Sep 2011 4.50 Interim 100%
Wesfarmers Limited (WES) 23 Aug 2011 30 Sep 2011 85.00 Interim 100%
SAI Global Limited (SAI) 23 Aug 2011 23 Sep 2011 8.00 Interim 100%
Boral Limited (BLD) 23 Aug 2011 27 Sep 2011 7.00 Interim 100%
Oz Minerals Limited (OZL) 23 Aug 2011 16 Sep 2011 30.00 Interim 0%
Ansell Limited (ANN) 23 Aug 2011 21 Sep 2011 19.00 Interim 0%
Talent2 International Ltd (TWO) 23 Aug 2011 30 Sep 2011 5.50 Interim 100%
Royalco Resources Limited (RCO) 23 Aug 2011 5 Sep 2011 2.00 Interim 100%
Adelaide Brighton Limited (ABC) 24 Aug 2011 10 Oct 2011 7.50 Interim 100%
Domino's Pizza Enterprises (DMP) 24 Aug 2011 15 Sep 2011 11.50 Interim 100%
GUD Holdings Limited (GUD) 24 Aug 2011 14 Sep 2011 35.00 Interim 100%
Mincor Resources NL (MCR) 25 Aug 2011 27 Sep 2011 2.00 Interim 100%
ANZ CPS2 convertible preference share (ANZPA) 25 Aug 2011 15 Sep 2011 143.30 Interim 100%
Hire Intelligence International Limited (HII) 25 Aug 2011 28 Sep 2011 1.00 Interim 100%
Blackmores Limited (BKL) 26 Aug 2011 15 Sep 2011 80.00 Interim 100%
Wellcom Group Ltd (WLL) 26 Aug 2011 15 Sep 2011 9.00 Interim 100%
Cochlear Limited (COH) 26 Aug 2011 22 Sep 2011 120.00 Interim 70%
Henderson Group Plc (HGG) 29 Aug 2011 23 Sep 2011 N/a Interim 0%
ASX Limited (ASX) 29 Aug 2011 22 Sep 2011 93.00 Interim 100%
AngloGold Ltd (AGG) 29 Aug 2011 9 Sep 2011 N/a Interim 0%
Mermaid Marine Australia Limited (MRM) 29 Aug 2011 23 Sep 2011 5.00 Interim 100%
Bendigo and Adelaide Bank Limited (BEN) 29 Aug 2011 30 Sep 2011 30.00 Interim 100%
iiNET Limited (IIN) 30 Aug 2011 30 Sep 2011 7.00 Interim 100%
Slater & Gordon Limited (SGH) 31 Aug 2011 26 Oct 2011 3.30 Interim 100%
Milton Corporation Limited (MLT) 31 Aug 2011 20 Sep 2011 44.00 Interim 100%
APN News & Media Limited (APN) 1 Sep 2011 28 Sep 2011 3.50 Interim 100%
Gazal Corporation Limited (GZL) 1 Sep 2011 3 Oct 2011 7.00 Interim 100%
Colorpak Limited (CKL) 2 Sep 2011 4 Oct 2011 1.75 Interim 100%
WAM Capital Limited (WAM) 2 Sep 2011 15 Sep 2011 5.00 Interim 100%
Aquarius Platinum Limited (AQP) 5 Sep 2011 30 Sep 2011 N/a Interim 0%
AMP Limited (AMP) 5 Sep 2011 14 Oct 2011 15.00 Interim 30%
Salmat Limited (SLM) 5 Sep 2011 28 Sep 2011 12.50 Interim 100%
OneSteel Limited (OST) 5 Sep 2011 13 Oct 2011 4.00 Interim 0%
EMERGING LEADERS INVESTMENTS LIMITED (ELI) 5 Sep 2011 23 Sep 2011 4.25 Interim 100%
Supply Network Solutions (SNL) 5 Sep 2011 23 Sep 2011 3.00 Interim 100%
Ludowici Limited (LDW) 7 Sep 2011 23 Sep 2011 10.00 Interim 100%
Retail Food Group (RFG) 7 Sep 2011 6 Oct 2011 7.50 Interim 100%
News Corporation Class A (non-voting) (NWSLV) 8 Sep 2011 19 Oct 2011 N/a Interim 0%
News Corporation Class B (voting) (NWS) 8 Sep 2011 19 Oct 2011 N/a Interim 0%
FlexiGroup Limited (FXL) 8 Sep 2011 13 Oct 2011 5.50 Interim 100%
Westpac TPS Trust (WCTPA) 9 Sep 2011 30 Sep 2011 N/a Interim 0%
Village Roadshow Limited (VRL) 9 Sep 2011 6 Oct 2011 8.00 Interim 100%
Globe International Limited (GLB) 9 Sep 2011 30 Sep 2011 5.00 Interim 100%
Codan Limited (CDA) 9 Sep 2011 3 Oct 2011 5.00 Interim 100%
InvoCare Limited (IVC) 12 Sep 2011 7 Oct 2011 13.50 Interim 100%
GWA Group (GWA) 12 Sep 2011 6 Oct 2011 8.50 Interim 100%
Cardno Limited (CDD) 12 Sep 2011 14 Oct 2011 17.00 Interim 70%
Oakton Computing Ltd (OKN) 12 Sep 2011 30 Sep 2011 5.00 Interim 100%
Brambles Limited (BXB) 15 Sep 2011 13 Oct 2011 13.00 Interim 20%
Carsales.com Limited (CRZ) 15 Sep 2011 5 Oct 2011 10.50 Interim 100%
Mineral Resources Limited (MIN) 16 Sep 2011 20 Oct 2011 27.00 Interim 100%
Westpac SPS II (WBCPB) 19 Sep 2011 30 Sep 2011 N/a Interim 0%
CSL Limited (CSL) 19 Sep 2011 14 Oct 2011 45.00 Interim 4%
Webjet Ltd (WEB) 19 Sep 2011 7 Oct 2011 6.00 Interim 100%
ASG Group Limited (ASZ) 20 Sep 2011 5 Oct 2011 5.50 Interim 100%
The Reject Shop Limited (TRS) 20 Sep 2011 10 Oct 2011 8.00 Interim 100%
London City Equities Limited (LCE) 20 Sep 2011 14 Oct 2011 1.00 Interim 100%
Credit Corp Group Ltd (CCP) 22 Sep 2011 7 Oct 2011 10.00 Interim 100%
Cadence Capital Limited (CDM) 22 Sep 2011 6 Oct 2011 6.00 Interim 100%
CBA PERLS III (PCAPA) 23 Sep 2011 6 Oct 2011 N/a Interim 0%
Count Financial Limited (COU) 23 Sep 2011 14 Oct 2011 4.00 Interim 100%
Transpacific Industries Trust (TPAPA) 26 Sep 2011 17 Oct 2011 N/a Interim 100%
Peters MacGregor Investments Limited (PET) 26 Sep 2011 7 Oct 2011 2.00 Interim 100%
Fletcher Building Limited (FBU) 26 Sep 2011 19 Oct 2011 N/a Interim 0%
SMS Management and Technology Limited (SMX) 26 Sep 2011 28 Oct 2011 16.50 Interim 100%
Sky City Limited (SKC) 26 Sep 2011 7 Oct 2011 5.98 Interim 54%
Newcrest Mining Limited (NCM) 26 Sep 2011 21 Oct 2011 20.00 Interim 0%
Transpacific Industries Trust (TPAPA) 27 Sep 2011 17 Oct 2011 298.00 Final 100%
AVJennings Homes Limited (AVJ) 28 Sep 2011 19 Oct 2011 1.50 Interim 100%
PMP Ltd (PMP) 29 Sep 2011 20 Oct 2011 1.00 Interim 100%
ARB Corporation Limited (ARP) 30 Sep 2011 21 Oct 2011 13.00 Interim 100%
1300 Smiles (ONT) 30 Sep 2011 12 Oct 2011 8.00 Interim 100%
Imdex Limited (IMD) 30 Sep 2011 21 Oct 2011 2.75 Interim 100%
Nick Scali Limited (NCK) 30 Sep 2011 31 Oct 2011 4.50 Interim 100%
INDUSTREA LIMITED (IDL) 10 Oct 2011 7 Nov 2011 3.00 Interim 100%
Cedar Woods Properties Limited (CWP) 10 Oct 2011 31 Oct 2011 N/a Interim 0%
WAM Research Limited (WAX) 10 Oct 2011 21 Oct 2011 3.00 Interim 100%
PERPETUAL EXCHANGEABLE RESALE LISTED SECURITIES (CBAPB) 18 Oct 2011 31 Oct 2011 209.88 Interim 100%
CBA PERLS V (CBAPA) 18 Oct 2011 31 Oct 2011 291.01 Interim 100%
Tamawood Ltd (TWD) 14 Nov 2011 2 Dec 2011 13.00 Interim 100%
Ausenco Ltd (AAX) 24 Aug 2011 Interim
WorleyParsons Group Limited (WOR) 24 Aug 2011 Full Year
Wotif.com Holdings Ltd (WTF) 24 Aug 2011 Full Year
Seven West Media (SWM) 24 Aug 2011 Full Year
Skilled Engineering Limited (SKE) 24 Aug 2011 Full Year
Transpacific Industries Group Ltd (TPI) 24 Aug 2011 Full Year
Super Retail Group Limited (SUL) 24 Aug 2011 Full Year
Suncorp Group Limited (SUN) 24 Aug 2011 Full Year
Regional Express Holdings Ltd (REX) 24 Aug 2011 Full Year
Sunland Group Limited (SDG) 24 Aug 2011 Full Year
Pacific Brands Limited (PBG) 24 Aug 2011 Full Year
Qantas Airways Limited (QAN) 24 Aug 2011 Full Year
Ridley Corporation Limited (RIC) 24 Aug 2011 Full Year
St Barbara Mines Limited (SBM) 24 Aug 2011 Full Year
ClearView Wealth (CVW) 24 Aug 2011 Full Year
Southern Cross Media Group Limited (SXL) 24 Aug 2011 Full Year
Mortgage Choice Limited (MOC) 24 Aug 2011 Full Year
Charter Hall Office REIT (CQO) 24 Aug 2011 Full Year
Mesoblast Limited (MSB) 24 Aug 2011 Full Year
Macarthur Coal (MCC) 24 Aug 2011 Full Year
Downer EDI Limited (DOW) 24 Aug 2011 Full Year
APA Group (APA) 24 Aug 2011 Full Year
Customers Ltd (CUS) 24 Aug 2011 Full Year
Asciano Group (AIO) 24 Aug 2011 Full Year
Australian Infrastructure Fund (AIX) 24 Aug 2011 Full Year
Air New Zealand Limited (AIZ) 25 Aug 2011 Full Year
Austbrokers Holdings Ltd (AUB) 25 Aug 2011 Full Year
Charter Hall Group (CHC) 25 Aug 2011 Full Year
Collection House Limited (CLH) 25 Aug 2011 Full Year
Cabcharge Australia Limited (CAB) 25 Aug 2011 Full Year
Clough Limited (CLO) 25 Aug 2011 Full Year
Country Road Limited (CTY) 25 Aug 2011 Full Year
Envestra Limited (ENV) 25 Aug 2011 Full Year
Equity Trustees Limited (EQT) 25 Aug 2011 Full Year
FKP Ltd (FKP) 25 Aug 2011 Full Year
Insurance Australia Group Limited (IAG) 25 Aug 2011 Full Year
Devine Limited (DVN) 25 Aug 2011 Full Year
ING Office Fund (IOF) 25 Aug 2011 Full Year
IOOF Holdings Limited (IFL) 25 Aug 2011 Full Year
Macquarie Corporate Telecommunications Holdings Limited (MAQ) 25 Aug 2011 Full Year
PaperlinX Ltd (PPX) 25 Aug 2011 Full Year
Prime Media Group Limited (PRT) 25 Aug 2011 Full Year
Ramsay Health Care Limited (RHC) 25 Aug 2011 Full Year
Thakral Holdings Group (THG) 25 Aug 2011 Full Year
Transfield Services Limited (TSE) 25 Aug 2011 Full Year
Tatts Group Limited (TTS) 25 Aug 2011 Full Year
Toll Holdings Limited (TOL) 25 Aug 2011 Full Year
TFS Corporation Limited (TFC) 25 Aug 2011 Full Year
Virgin Blue (VBA) 25 Aug 2011 Full Year
Crown Ltd (CWN) 25 Aug 2011 Full Year
Woolworths Limited (WOW) 25 Aug 2011 Full Year
Aristocrat Leisure Limited (ALL) 25 Aug 2011 Interim
Pan Australian Resources NL (PNA) 25 Aug 2011 Interim
MAp Group (MAP) 25 Aug 2011 Interim
Iluka Resources (ILU) 25 Aug 2011 Interim
Iress Market Technology Limited (IRE) 25 Aug 2011 Interim
Abacus Property Group (ABP) 25 Aug 2011 Full Year
AGL Energy (AGK) 25 Aug 2011 Full Year
Automotive Holdings Group Ltd (AHE) 26 Aug 2011 Full Year
Oceania Capital Partners Limited (OCP) 26 Aug 2011 Full Year
Acrux Limited (ACR) 26 Aug 2011 Full Year
GPT Group Limited (GPT) 26 Aug 2011 Interim
Koon Holdings Limited (KNH) 26 Aug 2011 Interim
Spark Infrastructure Group (SKI) 26 Aug 2011 Full Year
UXC Limited (UXC) 26 Aug 2011 Full Year
Silex Systems Limited (SLX) 26 Aug 2011 Full Year
Panoramic Resources Limited (PAN) 26 Aug 2011 Full Year
Reece Australia Limited (REH) 26 Aug 2011 Full Year
Sims Metal Management (SGM) 26 Aug 2011 Full Year
RCG Corporation (RCG) 26 Aug 2011 Full Year
Perpetual Limited (PPT) 26 Aug 2011 Full Year
Lend Lease Group Limited (LLC) 26 Aug 2011 Full Year
Fairfax Media Limited (FXJ) 26 Aug 2011 Full Year
Aspen Group Limited (APZ) 26 Aug 2011 Full Year
AWE Limited (AWE) 29 Aug 2011 Full Year
Goodman Fielder Ltd (GFF) 29 Aug 2011 Full Year
Hastings Diversified Utilities Fund (HDF) 29 Aug 2011 Full Year
Mineral Deposits Limited (MDL) 29 Aug 2011 Full Year
Hastie Group Limited (HST) 29 Aug 2011 Full Year
M2 Telecommunications Group Limited (MTU) 29 Aug 2011 Full Year
Macquarie Atlas Roads (MQA) 29 Aug 2011 Interim
QR National (QRN) 29 Aug 2011 Full Year
MyState Limited (MYS) 30 Aug 2011 Full Year
Wasabi Energy Limited (WAS) 30 Aug 2011 Full Year
McMillan Shakespeare (MMS) 30 Aug 2011 Full Year
Jetset Travelworld Limited (JET) 30 Aug 2011 Full Year
Infigen Energy (IFN) 30 Aug 2011 Full Year
Beach Energy Limited (BPT) 30 Aug 2011 Full Year
Astro Japan Property Trust (AJA) 31 Aug 2011 Full Year
AJ Lucas Group Limited (AJL) 31 Aug 2011 Full Year
Independence Gold NL (IGO) 31 Aug 2011 Full Year
Paladin Energy Limited (PDN) 31 Aug 2011 Full Year
Grange Resources Limited (GRR) 31 Aug 2011 Interim
Murchison Metals Limited (MMX) 31 Aug 2011 Interim
Adamus Resources Limited (ADU) 31 Aug 2011 Full Year
Minara Resources Limited (MRE) 31 Aug 2011 Interim
Galaxy Resources (GXY) 13 Sep 2011 Interim
ASX Dividends
Myer Holdings (MYR) 15 Sep 2011 Full Year
Aquila Resources Ltd (AQA) 16 Sep 2011 Full Year
TPG Telecom Limited (TPM) 20 Sep 2011 Full Year
New Hope Corporation Limited (NHC) 20 Sep 2011 Full Year
OrotonGroup (ORL) 22 Sep 2011 Full Year
Brickworks Limited (BKW) 22 Sep 2011 Full Year
Methanol Australia Limited (MEO) 23 Sep 2011 Full Year
Sims Metal Management (SGM) 26 Sep 2011 Full Year
Nufarm Ltd (NUF) 27 Sep 2011 Full Year
Sigma Pharmaceuticals Limited (SIP) 28 Sep 2011 Interim
Paladin Energy Limited (PDN) 30 Sep 2011 Full Year
Murchison Metals Limited (MMX) 30 Sep 2011 Full Year
Sundance Resources Ltd (SDL) 30 Sep 2011 Full Year
Karoon Gas Limited (KAR) 30 Sep 2011 Full Year
Gryphon Minerals Limited (GRY) 30 Sep 2011 Full Year
Bank Of Queensland Limited (BOQ) 13 Oct 2011 Full Year
Ten Network Holdings Limited (TEN) 21 Oct 2011 Full Year
National Australia Bank Limited (NAB) 27 Oct 2011 Full Year
Australian Pharmaceutical Industries Limited (API) 27 Oct 2011 Full Year
Macquarie Group Limited (MQG) 28 Oct 2011 Interim
BT Investment Management (BTT) 31 Oct 2011 Full Year
Westpac Banking Corporation (WBC) 2 Nov 2011 Full Year
RHG Group Limited (RHG) 2 Nov 2011 Full Year
Australia & New Zealand Banking Group Limited (ANZ) 3 Nov 2011 Full Year
Orica Limited (ORI) 7 Nov 2011 Full Year
SP AusNet (SPN) 9 Nov 2011 Full Year
CSR Limited (CSR) 9 Nov 2011 Interim
Singapore Telecommunications (SGT) 10 Nov 2011 Interim
DuluxGroup (DLX) 14 Nov 2011 Full Year
Incitec Pivot Limited (IPL) 14 Nov 2011 Full Year
Elders Limited (ELD) 14 Nov 2011 Full Year
James Hardie Industries Limited (JHX) 17 Nov 2011 Interim
Technology One Limited (TNE) 21 Nov 2011 Full Year
Fisher & Paykel Healthcare Corporation Limited (FPH) 22 Nov 2011 Interim
Programmed Maintenance Services Limited (PRG) 23 Nov 2011 Interim
GrainCorp Limited (GNC) 25 Nov 2011 Full Year
Campbell Brothers Limited (CPB) 29 Nov 2011 Interim
Metcash (MTS)

ASX Dividends

CFD Trading Strategy

info@tradinglounge.com.au (Peter ) — Mon, 22 Aug 2011 21:20:21 GMT

CFD Trading Strategy


OPEN POSITIONS	CODE	DATE	LONG/SHORT	ENTRY	STOP
Profit Targets
	WTF	22-Aug	SHORT	4.53	4.63
	WOR	22-Aug	SHORT	23.67	24.47
	UGL	22-Aug	SHORT	12.17	12.23
	TOL	22-Aug	SHORT	4.25	4.33
Wide Stop	SGM	22-Aug	SHORT	13.97	15.17
	PRY	22-Aug	SHORT	2.72	2.83
	RIO	19-Aug	SHORT	70.8	70.63
	AWC	19-Aug	SHORT	1.69	1.77
	BEN	19-Aug	SHORT	8.47	8.57
25% 0.72	BSL	19-Aug	SHORT	0.85	0.81
	IAU	19-Aug	SHORT	1.47	1.53
	KAR	19-Aug	SHORT	3.55	3.47
	MQG	19-Aug	SHORT	24.39	24.33
	OST	18-Aug	SHORT	1.44	1.39
	OSH	18-Aug	SHORT	6.39	6.17
	NUF	18-Aug	SHORT	3.84	3.83
	KAR	17-Aug	SHORT	3.77	3.47
	PDN	17-Aug	SHORT	2.27	2.07
	WPL	17-Aug	SHORT	36.99	35.77
	WOR	17-Aug	SHORT	26.44	24.43

CFD Trading Strategy

OPEN POSITIONS	CODE	DATE	LONG/SHORT	ENTRY	STOP
Profit Targets

	AWC	8-Aug	SHORT	1.79	2.03
	NUF	8-Aug	SHORT	3.99	4.13
	AWC	9-Aug	SHORT	1.76	2.03
	AGO	9-Aug	SHORT	3.46	3.97
	DJS	9-Aug	SHORT	2.66	2.93
	HVN	9-Aug	SHORT	1.82	2.11
	QBE	9-Aug	SHORT	14.12	14.17
	CPU	8-Aug	SHORT	7.33	7.37
	SEK	5-Aug	SHORT	6.25	6.23
	QAN	5-Aug	SHORT	1.75	1.63
	ORI	5-Aug	SHORT	24.47	25.13
	BBG	3-Aug	SHORT	5.74	5.37
	CAB	3-Aug	SHORT	4.89	4.77
	CPU	3-Aug	SHORT	8.12	7.37
	HVN	3-Aug	SHORT	2.14	2.07
	MBN	3-Aug	SHORT	1.915	1.73
	MYR	3-Aug	SHORT	2.24	2.26
	OST	3-Aug	SHORT	1.73	1.53
	PNA	3-Aug	SHORT	4.03	3.83
	PDN	3-Aug	SHORT	2.63	2.37
	QBE	3-Aug	SHORT	16.16	14.17
	STO	3-Aug	SHORT	12.89	12.27
	BSL	29-Jul	SHORT	1.16	0.935
	BSL	28-Jul	SHORT	1.21	0.935
	DJS	26-Jul	SHORT	3.09	2.87

Financial Events

info@tradinglounge.com.au (Peter ) — Sun, 28 Aug 2011 00:02:04 GMT

Sunday 27 August

Mon
Tentative AUD        HIA New Home Sales m/m     -8.7%
All Day EUR        German Prelim CPI m/m    0.0% 0.4%
All Day GBP        Bank Holiday
10:30pm USD        Core PCE Price Index m/m    0.2% 0.1%
10:30pm USD        Personal Spending m/m    0.5% -0.2%
10:30pm USD        Personal Income m/m    0.3% 0.1%
11:00pm EUR        ECB President Trichet Speaks
12:00am USD        Pending Home Sales m/m    -0.8% 2.4%

Tue
8:45am NZD        Building Consents m/m     -1.4%
9:30am JPY        Household Spending y/y    -2.9% -4.2%
9:30am JPY        Unemployment Rate    4.6% 4.6%
9:50am JPY        Retail Sales y/y    1.2% 1.2%
11:30am AUD        Building Approvals m/m    2.1% -3.5%
4:00pm CHF        UBS Consumption Indicator     1.48
6:00pm EUR        Italian Retail Sales m/m    0.2% -0.1%
6:30pm GBP        Net Lending to Individuals m/m    1.1B 0.4B
Postponed GBP        Prelim Business Investment q/q     -3.2%
6:30pm GBP        M4 Money Supply m/m    0.4% -0.5%
6:30pm GBP        Mortgage Approvals    49K 48K
10:30pm CAD        Current Account    -13.6B -8.9B
10:30pm CAD       RMPI m/m    0.0% -2.2%
10:30pm CAD       IPPI m/m    0.0% -0.3%
11:00pm USD        S&P/CS Composite-20 HPI y/y    -4.7% -4.5%
12:00am USD        CB Consumer Confidence    52.2 59.5
2:15am USD        FOMC Member Kocherlakota Speaks
4:00am USD        FOMC Meeting Minutes

Wed
9:15am JPY        Manufacturing PMI     52.1
9:50am JPY        Prelim Industrial Production m/m    1.6% 3.8%
11:00am NZD        NBNZ Business Confidence     47.6
11:30am AUD        Private Sector Credit m/m    0.2% -0.1%
11:30am JPY        Average Cash Earnings y/y    -0.4% -0.7%
3:00pm JPY        Housing Starts y/y    4.7% 5.8%
4:00pm EUR        German Retail Sales m/m    -1.5% 4.5%
5:55pm EUR        German Unemployment Change    -10K -11K
6:00pm EUR        Italian Monthly Unemployment Rate    8.1% 8.0%
7:00pm EUR        CPI Flash Estimate y/y    2.5% 2.5%
7:00pm EUR        Unemployment Rate   9.9% 9.9%
7:00pm EUR        Italian Prelim CPI m/m    0.3% 0.3%
9:30pm USD        Challenger Job Cuts y/y     59.4%
10:15pm USD        ADP Non-Farm Employment Change    103K 114K
10:30pm CAD        GDP m/m   0.2% -0.3%
11:45pm USD        Chicago PMI    54.8 58.8
12:00am USD        Factory Orders m/m    1.7% -0.8%
12:30am USD        Crude Oil Inventories     -2.2M

Thu
8:45am NZD        Overseas Trade Index q/q    0.6% 0.9%
9:30am AUD        AIG Manufacturing Index     43.4
11:00am CNY        Manufacturing PMI    51.2 50.7
11:00am NZD        ANZ Commodity Prices m/m     -0.1%
11:30am AUD        Private Capital Expenditure q/q    4.1% 3.4%
11:30am AUD        Retail Sales m/m    0.3% -0.1%
12:30pm CNY        HSBC Final Manufacturing PMI     49.8
3:45pm CHF        GDP q/q    0.4% 0.6%
4:00pm EUR        German Final GDP q/q    0.1% 0.1%
4:00pm GBP        Nationwide HPI m/m    0.1% 0.2%
4:30pm AUD        Commodity Prices y/y     27.6%
1st-8th GBP        Halifax HPI m/m    0.5% 0.3%
5:15pm CHF        Retail Sales y/y    4.6% 7.4%
5:30pm CHF        SVME PMI    51.2 53.5
6:00pm EUR        Final Manufacturing PMI    49.7 49.7
6:30pm GBP        Manufacturing PMI    49.2 49.1
10:30pm USD        Unemployment Claims    409K 417K
10:30pm USD        Revised Nonfarm Productivity q/q    -0.4% -0.3%
10:30pm USD        Revised Unit Labor Costs q/q    2.3% 2.2%
12:00am USD        ISM Manufacturing PMI    48.9 50.9
12:00am USD        Construction Spending m/m    0.2% 0.2%
12:00am USD        ISM Manufacturing Prices    55.1 59.0
12:30am USD       Natural Gas Storage     73B
All Day USD        Total Vehicle Sales    12.1M 12.2M
2:00am USD        FOMC Member Duke Speaks

Fri
9:50am JPY        Capital Spending q/y    1.1% 3.3%
9:50am JPY        Monetary Base y/y    14.2% 15.0%
5:15pm CHF        Employment Level    4.11M 4.11M
6:30pm GBP        Construction PMI    53.1 53.5
7:00pm EUR        PPI m/m    0.6% 0.0%
10:30pm USD        Non-Farm Employment Change    90K 117K
10:30pm USD        Unemployment Rate    9.1% 9.1%
10:30pm USD        Average Hourly Earnings m/m    0.2% 0.4%

EarlyBird Report

info@tradinglounge.com.au (Peter ) — Sun, 28 Aug 2011 00:05:34 GMT

This Weeks EarlyBird REPORTS

EarlyBird Report – 26 August

Dow Jones Cash 11,149 -1.51%
Base Metals positive
US Gold CFD: 1761
Oil WTI CFD: 85
Copper CFD: 410
US Dollar CFD: 74.32
EURUSD 1.4375
AUDUSD 1.0435
Dow Jones CFD 11,150
S&P500 CFD: 1,160
FTSE 100 CFD: 5100
SPI CFD 4160

US News
U.S. stocks dropped Thursday after three days of sharp gains as Warren Buffett's $5 billion investment in Bank of America failed to stoke investors' appetite for risk ahead of Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke's speech on Friday.

Commodities

US Gold CFD: 1761
The first leg of three is complete at 1700, consider the first leg down the Wave (a) of an (a) (b) (c) correction. The current Wave (b) rally will be in three swings a smaller abc correctional rally, the target is likely the 1772 or the 1800+, once this Wave (b) is complete then it’s down for Wave (c)
Silver is in the same pattern except silver pattern can be a larger impulse structure, that is not down for Wave (a) but Wave (i) of five waves.

Oil WTI CFD: 85
Oil follows stock these days and that’s what’s occurring, however the first step is the 85 (mTL5) as the retested resistance and that pattern is in the process but not confirmed.
In the trend up from 80 (TL8) it has been the nature of Oil to spike down and this can just be a reoccurring pattern. That said the SP500 does appear to have its first five waves down (impulse) from the last night last high, meaning the larger Wave 4 correction may be over, if so then Oil should slide down from here

Base Metals

US Spot Prices (in l/b)
US Copper:           Last: 4.07+
US Nickel:             Last: 9.53+
US Zinc:                Last: 0.99+
US Aluminium       Last: 1.05+

Copper CFD: 410
All base metals have been strong over the last two sessions and will continue to push higher, copper to around the 420+, however I consider this a corrective rally part of the Wave (c) of an abc correction. It’s worth trading up the actual commodity, the local stock still has to complete against the US Indices trading lower.

Forex

US Dollar CFD: 74.32
The Euro is retesting the 144 as the resistance and the dollar trying to establish support on top of Subgroup1 (SG1) 7430.
If you have had stops under the 73.72 then lift them to 73.87. the general pattern looks fine for the upside, but as you know the top of SG1 as support is the next step, the whole move up can be corrective but the thinking is that it can turn into a positive Impulse wave, but we are far from that at the moment so there is risk, so continue to scale in small positions, don’t build percentage of initial risk only build risk in profit.

EURUSD 1.4375
TradingLevels: The SP500 turned on reaching the Gap and the Euro followed and now under the 144 and will retest 144 or even a tad higher, if we get a failed retest then the next move is down and the Dollar up
Trade Strategy: Long or short from SG2 14372 as support or resistance

AUDUSD 1.0435
TradingLevels: The wave (ii) top is being confirmed from 105 because of lower prices and the wave structure on the SP500
Elliott Wave: Wave (ii) complete and Wave (iii) is under way, if the wave count is correct then a move under 1.00 from here would be expected
Trade Strategy: The Weekly Robo does not have you short but the Daily and the 4 hour does. The shorter term is the 104 price level as resistance with the triggers at 10372 SG2 as resistance and scalpers will see a bouncy ride into 104 through the levels in SG1

Indices

Dow Jones CFD 11,150
TradingLevels: Wave (ii) completed and Wave (iii) down is under way, however more evidence is required but it does appear so. If correct then new lows would be made below 10,000. The 10800 and the 10500 are the MinorLevel key supports
Elliott Wave: The move down last night suggests that the Wave (ii) rally is completed and the Wave (iii) down is underway
Trade Strategy: Scalpers scalp, short term trend traders work each 100 points with the sublevels and trend traders hold short with stops above 11500 with the target of 10,000

S&P500 CFD: 1,160
TradingLevels: The price being under 1172 helps the bearish scenario, the 1150 is the next level require as resistance, the longer term target is the 1,000 and is the Dow at 10,000 both TL1 Major TradingLevels, it’s only natural to be pulled to these numbers especially when the Dow is under 12,000 and the SP500 under 1200
Trade Strategy: Look for short trade set ups, the price has worked the SG2 1180 I 1172 I 1165 as the resistance so work the 1165 for stops and also work the 1150 Midpoint.

FTSE 100 CFD: 5100
TradingLevels: The wave count is the same as the SP500 in fact it’s leading, the current move down is in five waves and will soon see a three wave counter trend then down again
Trade Strategy: You know it will get rough around the 5000, so move in closer or move back. The long term strategy is to add to short position here then under the 5000 as resistance with the aim of getting down near 4500

SPI CFD 4160
TradingLevels: The 4200 is still the line in the sand, however the bias is as resistance rather than as support because of the wave structure on the US Indices, you also understand that we have been looking for a top here and this maybe the turn now, a failed retest of 4200 is what we need to see.
Trade Strategy: work the SG2 (4180 I 4172 I 4165) the 4172 as resistance is the keystone here, but of course you can work a higher price short after a retest of 4200.

Summary

Indices, Wave (ii) rally is completed and Wave (iii) down is underway… supporting this move is the US Dollar moving up and the Euro down. We do have the Feds speak tonight that can lift the markets, but I think this is already priced into the markets as the Wave (ii) the Gap on the SP500 cash as the target was covered, so we should see further down side towards the 1,000 for the Sp500 and 10,000 for the Dow.

The ASX 200 can be support based on strong base metals price, perhaps China has started to buy from the sport market I will need to research this, but will treat the rally as just that a rally, even though Copper is above 400 I would need to see US BHP above 80 to consider the ASX200 supported from the resource point of view, the energy (oil) is following stock so that is fine and while CBA is under 50 I consider the Finance sector bearish, Berkshire Hathaway did buy 5 Billion in Bank of America, you would think they would have at least waited for 5.00 any way the US banks trend is down. So no support from the finance sector.

We will now look at shorts on the ASX, but pay attention to the Dow futures in the our afternoon session, we would expect a short term rally in line with the Feds speech, but expect this short lived with more downside to unfold.

All said and done the 4200 is the line sand for being bullish or bearish

Trading Quote
"The only conquests that are permanent and leave no regrets are our conquests over ourselves.--Napoleon Bonaparte

Today's Financial Events
Time     Currency   Detail     Forecast    Previous

9:30am AUD        RBA Gov Stevens Speaks
9:30am JPY        Tokyo Core CPI y/y   -0.1% 0.4%
9:30am JPY        National Core CPI y/y    -0.1% -0.2%
4:00pm EUR        German Import Prices m/m    0.3% -0.6%
6:00pm EUR        M3 Money Supply y/y    2.2% 2.1%
6:00pm EUR        Private Loans y/y    2.6% 2.5%
6:30pm GBP       Revised GDP q/q    0.2% 0.2%
6:30pm GBP        Prelim Business Investment q/q     -3.2%
6:30pm GBP        Index of Services 3m/3m    0.6% 1.2%
7:30pm CHF        KOF Economic Barometer    1.86 2.04
10:30pm USD        Prelim GDP q/q    1.1% 1.3%
10:30pm USD        Prelim GDP Price Index q/q    2.3% 2.3%
11:55pm USD        Revised UoM Consumer Sentiment    56.3 54.9
11:55pm USD        Revised UoM Inflation Expectations     3.4%
12:00am USD        Fed Chairman Bernanke Speaks
Day 2 ALL        Jackson Hole Symposium

NOTES:
1. Check the Dividend & Reporting section for your stock on this site before trading
2. Prices may change as this report is written while markets are closing/trading
3. Always think things out for yourself, we are only here to bounce ideas around.

Good Morning & Good Luck!

EarlyBird Report – 25 August

VIDEO - Apologies, I lost the video in the production process
and I just dont have the time to repeat it. Rgds Pete

Dow Jones Cash 11,320 +1.29%
Base Metals Steady
US Gold CFD: 1763
Oil WTI CFD: 85
Copper CFD: 400
US Dollar CFD: 74.07
EURUSD 1.4423
AUDUSD 1.0465
Dow Jones CFD 11,300
S&P500 CFD: 1,174
FTSE 100 CFD: 5231
SPI CFD 4208

US News
U.S. stocks notched a third straight day of gains as an upbeat durable goods report set a positive tone while investors await Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke's highly anticipated speech later this week.

Commodities

US Gold CFD: 1763
The downside target we had in mind was the 1720 the fourth wave of one lesser degree and that’s fine if the structure down is only going to be in three waves, however the internal structure and personality is more like five wave (impulse) so roughly sizing it up we are looking lower perhaps even down to 1650 but probably closer to 1700. Expect the price to slow down into 1730 SG1 and correct across 1700
If we do get five wave down and that is very high probability, then this leg down is one of three abc correction.

Oil WTI CFD: 85
The 85 is still support, as long as the 85 is support the price has the basis to move higher, only when its retested 85 as resistance can we trade it short, so for now the bias is still up.
That said the wave pattern as an abc corrective can be complete now and a move down can occur, but we have time on our hands as the Dow is likely to push up above its last night high at 11300 as it develops support on 11200

Base Metals

US Spot Prices (in l/b)
US Copper:           Last: 4.01+
US Nickel:             Last: 9.44-
US Zinc:                Last: 0.97-
US Aluminium       Last: 1.00-

Copper CFD: 400
The pattern over the last month at 400 is corrective, but we are unsure if the price will push up in to SG1 (up to 430) again or drop from here, the corrective pattern has created too many possibilities to give any certainty of the short term. For the Materials sector we can look at BHP in the US at the 80 (TL8) support or resistance can off us the bullish or bearish bias for our local XMJ

Forex

US Dollar CFD: 74.07
The same thoughts as yesterday and we have seen the Dollar move up through the 74 with the 73.72 as support. So the scaling in can begin through SG1 (7410 I 7420 I 7430) on each sublevel it is the 7430 that is the top of SG1 that is important as support on top of 7430 sets it free from 74. That said the move last night above 74 needs to correct first, so seeing it back at 7390 or there a bouts is likely the price needs to go through the building process across 74 and this is the key to building through SG1. The other element is the Euro developing the 144 as the resistance, the more the Euro becomes the resistance the safe any long trade is on the Dollar, in fact you would trade the Dollar long until the Euro was trapped under the 144.

EURUSD 1.4423
TradingLevels: The Euro is still sitting on support while the SP500 continues its counter trend rally higher towards the 1180 – 1190. For the Euro to push higher you want to see solid support on 14430 SG1
(A move above 14520 would also take out the internal bearish wave structure we have been observing starting from the 17^th of this month.)
Trade Strategy: Just trade the sublevels support and resistance until we have a clear direction.

AUDUSD 1.0465
TradingLevels: We can have a top in place at the 105 but we need to see the SP500 complete its rally if the AUD is to move lower
Elliott Wave: Not sure if the rally is complete at 10530, we would like to confirm this with the SP500.
Trade Strategy: Just work the levels for the short term, the price is in SG2 so work the 10472 as support or resistance and then use the 10465 as resistance for the trigger lower and the 10480 to get to 10497

Indices

Dow Jones CFD 11,300
TradingLevels: The price will move above 11300 then correct back into 11300, will this be the top of the rally is a wait and see.
Elliott Wave: The rally has passed the 61.8% but is now in the supply (sellers) zone, there is a lot of pressure from 11300 and 11500. Corrections are the tricky part of using Elliott when looking for certainty and more so when working with wave four corrections, wave two correction are simple wave four complicated, triangles, double zigzags etc, the price can move above 11500 and still be in a wave four correction. The Dow Comp and the DJI have not made new lows under their 9^th Aug lows but the Dow Transports have.
Trade Strategy: As we are using this market as a guide stick to trade the local ASX, we can say the internal wave structure for the Dow is still impulsing up, we are expecting a top to this rally and the 11300 where the supply starts was my target zone, personally I would wait and see if the 11300 become support or resistance

S&P500 CFD: 1,174
TradingLevels: The supply starts at 1180 there is a gap on the cash around the 1190. We should see a small corrective pattern work into the 1172 as it’s the 61.8% retracement levels but the Dow has worked past its 618% so we can expect the same here
Trade Strategy: We are still looking for the turn of the rally under the 1200, if the 1200 ever became support then we can think about using that support for trading long because it would have taken out the sellers. But for now we have to stay with observation of the structure and not to get trapped.

FTSE 100 CFD: 5231
TradingLevels: Just allow the price to move above the 5200 which its doing now, it should fold back for a correction abc at minimum if it does have an abc correction down through 5200 and then find support back above 5200, then look at longs. These current highs can be the top right up to 5272 SG2, the top of the whole rally just like the Dow at 11300, sure we can be wrong but we have to stay with the facts we have until we have a better picture
Trade Strategy: If the price finds support on the Midpoint 5250 then trade long to 5272 otherwise the price will fall back to 5200 in an abc correction or a top of the rally can be in place, whatever happen the market needs to move to a point that you can work with.

SPI CFD 4208
TradingLevels: The ASX200 and the SPI are still sorting out if the 4200 will become the support or the resistance and this is where the risk is, choosing a side, the support is not established, yes the market can open higher but trade down again, this is a typical Thursday behaviour.
Trade Strategy: Just have to work the MinorLevel (mTL2) 4200 and if the price is above then you need to break it down into the SG1 (4210 I 4220 I 4230) if the price can find the top of SG1 4230 as support then look for further upside to the Midpoint. If the price is under 4200 then the SG2 (4180 I 4172 I 4165) the 4172 as resistance is the keystone here, but of course you can work a higher price short after a retest of 4200.

Summary

The small wave two rallies in the US markets have shown no signs of changing their impulse structures, but I can’t give up on them turning just yet, they are moving into the supply zones now and this is a little more real to me than the 61.8%, so I would like to wait and see how the battle of supply and demand plays out at these current levels before acting.
For trading purposes we need the analysis and the evidence agreeing and then we use the TradingLevels to position ourselves, but at the moment we have the evidence of the indices going up and the analysis looking for a turn lower.
This also obviously makes it difficult for trading the local ASX, but it’s just something we have to be patient and work through, getting the timing right is what we are trying to achieve and when markets spend most of the time in corrections rather than trending we need to be extra careful. The 4200 is the line in the sand for long or short and as you can see on the intraday this is taking time to work out, expect more swings across this MinorLevel but try and tune into it, it’s a little like BHP in the US at 80. We will get the trend whatever direction when its ready.

Trading Quote
"The game of speculation is the most uniformly fascinating game in the world. But it is not a game for the stupid, the mentally lazy, the man of inferior emotional balance, or for the get-rich-quick adventurer. They will die poor." Jesse Livermore

Today's Financial Events
Time     Currency   Detail     Forecast    Previous

8:45am NZD        Core Retail Sales q/q    0.7% 0.7%
8:45am NZD        Retail Sales q/q    0.6% 0.9%
8:45am NZD        FPI m/m     1.4%
9:01am GBP        Nationwide Consumer Confidence    46 51
4:00pm EUR        GfK German Consumer Climate    5.2 5.4
5:15pm CHF        Employment Level    4.11M 4.11M
7:00pm CHF        ZEW Economic Expectations     -58.9
8:00pm GBP        CBI Realized Sales    -10 -5
10:30pm CAD        Corporate Profits q/q     4.2%
10:30pm USD        Unemployment Claims    402K 408K
12:30am USD       Natural Gas Storage     50B
Day 1 ALL        Jackson Hole Symposium

NOTES:
1. Check the Dividend & Reporting section for your stock on this site before trading
2. Prices may change as this report is written while markets are closing/trading
3. Always think things out for yourself, we are only here to bounce ideas around.

Good Morning & Good Luck!

EarlyBird Report – 24 August

Dow Jones Cash 11,031 +1.63%
Base Metals Positive
US Gold CFD: 1850
Oil WTI CFD: 85.67
Copper CFD: 399
US Dollar CFD: 73.93
AUDUSD 1.0520
Dow Jones CFD 11,137
S&P500 CFD: 1,162
FTSE 100 CFD: 5200
SPI CFD 4221

US News
U.S. stocks surged Tuesday as another dose of bleak economic data raised hopes that the Federal Reserve will take additional measures to stimulate the economy.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average rose 322.11 points, or 2.97%, to 11176.76. The steep gains were disturbed momentarily by a magnitude 5.8 earthquake centred in Virginia. Tremors were felt on the East Coast, through Washington, D.C., and up to New York City. But the earthquake failed to rattle investors, as stocks climbed in the final trading hour.

The Standard & Poor's 500-stock index rose 38.53 points, or 3.43%, to 1162.35, as energy, technology and consumer discretionary stocks registered the strongest gains. All 10 of the S&P 500's sectors finished in positive territory. The technology-oriented Nasdaq Composite rallied 100.68 points, or 4.29%, to 2446.06.

Another round of dismal economic reports prompted hopes that Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke will employ more accommodative measures to boost the economy. The Richmond Fed's regional manufacturing survey showed sharply declining economic activity this month. New home sales also dropped for a third straight month and fell to the lowest level since February.

The downbeat reports have put more of an emphasis on Bernanke's scheduled speech in Jackson Hole, Wyo., on Friday. Investors hope Bernanke will be more open to new easing measures, but at the same time are unclear as to what the central bank may have in store

Commodities

US Gold CFD: 1850
The expected reaction at 1900 is unfolding. The first leg in most corrections I just prefer to observe, as there are twelve corrections and by allowing the first leg to unfold we get to see if there are five waves or three waves, this can half the twelve correction to six types, we also get to understand the general distance the correction will travel.
I can see that the price will move though the Midpoint 1850 this straight away place the price 1830 and this is also in the price territory of 1800, which in turn opens a larger correction again, which points to the 1720 area, so we are likely to 1800 mTL8 come back into play with a larger correction
The other aspect is the US Dollar and the US Indices, the US Indices are in a wave two correction rally, the SP500 should complete its rally into the 1150 – 1200 before move further down, we can narrow that down shortly

Oil WTI CFD: 85.67
Oil rallies on stock. Two main points here the price is developing support on 85 (mTL5) with the resistance at 8650 then 88 (mTL8) the move up is considered a rally and once completed will follow the Indices down. The Indices still have more room to rally for the next session, so this can see Oil higher for the next session, however the actual rally abc structure is in its later stages of completing. We could expect the ASX XEJ Energy sector to rally to 13500 then retest 13000 (TL13) Once our Energy Sector develops 13000 as retested resistance then look towards the MediumLevel 11500 (ML15) and 10,000 (TL1)

Base Metals

US Spot Prices (in l/b)
US Copper:           Last: 4.00+
US Nickel:             Last: 9.44+
US Zinc:                Last: 0.98+
US Aluminium       Last: 1.05+

Copper CFD: 399
The price is retesting 400 (ML4) MediumLevel again, it would need to fail here and start to move down now, if it finds support on 400 then we are in for a larger correctional rally to 420, I don’t think this is the case, but we have to trade with the support and resistance price points if we are to create consistency in our trading and analysis.

Forex

US Dollar CFD: 73.93
The internal wave structures for the Euro are suggesting a move down and a move up in the US Dollar, however for the US dollar make sure you have 74 as support then scale in long through SG1 (7410 I 7420 I 7430)
If this is not the case then be short when 73.72 becomes the resistance.

EURUSD 1.4430
TradingLevels: The price is above 144 so the trading bias is bullish.
A move above 14520 would also take out the internal bearish wave structure we have been observing starting from the 17^th of this month.
Trade Strategy: While the price is above 144 look for long trade set ups. Longer term traders can look at the 4 hour Robo and short term traders can use the sublevels, the SG1 14430 as support is the key price point for higher ground followed by support on the Midpoint 14450, this is an old high so expect a struggle but eventually support on 14550 is would your looking for. The only problem with the long side is the rally price point for the SP500 is 1150 to 1200 probably the 618% 1172 (SG2) zone.

AUDUSD 1.0520
TradingLevels: Give the price time above 105 to see if it becomes support through a series of retesting 105, any support on top of SG1 10530 is the set up to trade long
Elliott Wave: See charts, Wave (ii) rally in the later stages of the abc.
Trade Strategy: Trade the sublevels as support and resistance. The wave structures are pointing to the upside and being above 105 creates the bullish bias, how long for is the question. The Asian Indices are expected to lift higher than the US indices and we are stuck in the middle, also keep an eye on the Copper market just simply at 400 and the US Dollar above or below 74.

Indices

Dow Jones CFD 11,137
TradingLevels: The price has created five waves (impulse structure) down from the 11500 to the 10800, so now expect a three wave abc corrective rally, once this is complete then expect further downside
Elliott Wave: As mentioned yesterday the 61.8% is the 11200, there is also a trend line resistance around the 11200 however the 11300 is where the supply is so we should work with both of these prices for the rally. Once the volume is in for the day we can use that to understand the power of the move up, but at this stage it’s on lower volume.
The rally up is considered a wave two rally and once completed a move down.
In the bigger picture while this market is under the MediumLevel the pressure is down and we are looking for five waves down from the 11,500 to 10,000
Trade Strategy: Intraday traders look for the 10900 as support or resistance, then use the 10800 to add to shorts or the 11000 to add to longs

S&P500 CFD: 1,162
TradingLevels: Yesterday I mentioned the 1172, well it looks like that is the case, its also the 61.8% retracement level, this is also SG2 (1165 I 1172 I 1180) so this zone can act as one for the resistance. there is also trendline resistance through this zone, this zone does lack the supply (sellers) any way we have to allow it to play out.
Trade Strategy: Look for weakness into the SG2 1172 zone this should be the wave two rally once completed then new lows should be made

FTSE 100 CFD: 5200
TradingLevels: There is more upside structure in the rally, so use the MinorLevel and the sublevels to break down the risk for trading. TL5 of mTL2 of SG1 (5230) is what you need as support, however the 61.8% retracement level is just above 5200 so expect a reaction
Elliott Wave: Wave (ii) abc rally
Trade Strategy: The rally has not turned down and is still displaying series of five waves up and three down, structure is positive. Expect a reaction at 5200 then wait and see if you gain support, if so use that to work the next session and also understand we are looking for a top here and the 5200 is the logical price, the set up here either way needs to be robust you need to be confidence

SPI CFD 4221
TradingLevels: The Australian market will be torn between the US and Asian markets, the rise is limited in the US indices but some of the Asian markets like the Nikkei can rally higher, so you will need to keep this in mind as Asian markets open over the days ahead
Trade Strategy: As always trade the support and resistance of the closest largest number and that is firstly the MinorLevel 4200 as support or resistance, followed by subgroup1 (SG1) above (4210

Summary

The move up in the US is considered a rally, a wave (ii) retracing 61.8% to 11200 or 11300.
The Asian seem to have more legs to the upside in their structures, such as the Nikkei, Indian and Hong Kong, the Shanghai, Shenzhen and the ASX200 are closer in their patterns which will be in the centre between the US short term rally and the other Asian markets in their longer term rallies.
If Copper finds support on 400 this will offer support and strength to the ASX XMJ Materials sector, so for the ASX200 XJO is support is found on 4200 a solid robust support then we can look towards the 4272.

Even though we view this as a rally in analysis terms, trading is a different kettle of fish, we have to trade what we see in terms of price, so we need to protect our short trades, so in most cases we will tighten up the stops to lock in what we can.

Trading Quote
http://usdebt.kleptocracy.us/
One would reasonably think that while US Debt continues to rise the pressure on a bear market would continue, only when it diminishes would one think of normality

Today's Financial Events
Time     Currency   Detail     Forecast    Previous

8:45am NZD        Trade Balance    -99M 230M
9:50am JPY        CSPI y/y    -0.4% -0.7%
10:00am AUD        CB Leading Index m/m     -0.1%
11:30am AUD        Construction Work Done q/q    1.1% 0.7%
2:05pm CAD        Gov Council Member Macklem Speaks
6:00pm EUR        German Ifo Business Climate    111.3 112.9
7:00pm EUR        Industrial New Orders m/m    0.6% 3.6%
10:30pm USD        Core Durable Goods Orders m/m    -0.2% 0.4%
10:30pm USD        Durable Goods Orders m/m    2.1% 1.9%
11:00pm EUR        Belgium NBB Business Climate    -3.1 -2.5
12:00am USD        OFHEO HPI m/m    0.2% 0.4%
12:30am USD        Crude Oil Inventories     4.2M

NOTES:
1. Check the Dividend & Reporting section for your stock on this site before trading
2. Prices may change as this report is written while markets are closing/trading
3. Always think things out for yourself, we are only here to bounce ideas around.

Good Morning & Good Luck!

EarlyBird Report – 23 August

Dow Jones Cash 10,839 +0.21%
Base Metals softer
US Gold CFD: 1888
Oil WTI CFD: 84.35
Copper CFD: 393
US Dollar CFD: 74.14
EURUSD 1.4372
AUDUSD 1.0430
Dow Jones CFD 10,890
S&P500 CFD: 1,125
FTSE 100 CFD: 5100
SPI CFD 4063

US News
DJ US Stocks Keep Paring Gains; DJIA Up 21, S&P 500 Down 1

Commodities

US Gold CFD: 1888
Nearly at 1900 were we can expect a TradingLevels classic pattern, once this is complete a push higher to 2,000 (TL2).
The price should stay above 1850 in the corrective pattern from 1900, essentially finding support in SG2 1865 I 1872 I 1880.
The stock market is in a corrective rally once this is complete and pushes down, which is likely now, in turn will assist Gold to lift higher, the other element holding up is the US dollar, while the US Dollar is above 74 gold will be under pressure to correct at 1900 this is an important element in the mix as it is very real that the US Dollar can push higher from here, this means Gold would struggle at 1900. At least we know there will be trouble at 1900, let’s just allow it to play out.
The ASX GOLD product will push higher if your were long from 144 then hold to 200 (TL2) with 25% at the 180 (mTL8) While the AUD is moving down GOLD will move up, the problem is at 1.00 (TL1) which in turn will be GOLD at 180

Oil WTI CFD: 84.35
On track here as gold follows stock, the bounce off 80 (TL8) is a corrective rally and the target is the 50 – 62% around the 85 (mTL5)
I should point out the pattern of the bounce appears to have the potential to push higher so just be a little careful the US are thinking of some type of stimuli

Base Metals

US Spot Prices (24HR in l/b)
US Copper:          Last: 3.95-
US Nickel:             Last: 9.49-
US Zinc:                Last: 0.96-
US Aluminium       Last: 1.04

Copper CFD: 393
The corrective patter at 400 MediumLevel (ML4) is completed and should move down from here if you feel like trading it. It is a failed retest of ML4, expect to see the price under 380 the first MinorLevel however also use the sublevels to add and subtract contracts. Expect a bounce off 380 but once competed the 350 is the following MinorLevel

Forex

US Dollar CFD: 74.14
The two count on the Dollar and the Euro are still playing out and can go either way. However using the Euro and SP500 being in sync, its places the bias of the Euro down and Dollar up.
The supporting line for the Dollar is 7350 but we need to lift this up asap to 7372 then 7400, we could say if the price finds support on 7430 (SG1) then move in long on the Dollar, but be aware the supply is at 7450, another safer way to look at is wait for the Euro to retest 144 and start to fail from there

EURUSD 1.4372
TradingLevels: If the Euro trades under the 14330 then the bias is bearish, if it finds support on 144 its bias is bullish.
Trade Strategy: Short term, work the SG2 14372 be long or short from this level. would expect a retest of 144 from here. Then look for a short from the 144

AUDUSD 1.0430
TradingLevels: The price is in a corrective rally trying to retest 1.05 it is creating lower tops.
Elliott Wave: See charts, Wave (ii) rally in the later stages of the abc.
Trade Strategy: Look for weakness to short

Indices

Dow Jones CFD: 10,890
TradingLevels: The price has created five waves (impulse structure) down from the 11500 to the 10800, so now expect a three wave abc corrective rally, once this is complete then expect further downside
Elliott Wave: small corrective rally off 1800. The 61.8% retracement is 11200 but if the price is going to move there we should bring the target to 11300 as there is no supply at 11200.
Corrections can be in price or time or a mix of both, so we may see the rally already completed at 11,000 this is a reasonable assumption, but only a break under the 10800 can confirm this.
In the bigger picture we are looking for five larger waves down, so the current small five waves down from 11500 to 1080 is just wave one. And we are looking at the wave two abc rally
Trade Strategy: Intraday traders look for the 10900 as support or resistance, then use the 10800 to add to shorts or the 11000 to add to longs

S&P500 CFD: 1,125
TradingLevels: Corrections are the weakest link in using Elliott and we are in one now, that is, we have had five waves down from the 1200 to 1120 so now we are in the abc wave two counter trend rally, which maybe complete and drop from her the 1130 or rally up to 1172 SG2 zone and drop from there
Trade Strategy: If 1130 develops support then trade to 1150, if the price finds the 1120 resistance then expect the price to move down through 1100

FTSE 100 CFD: 5100
TradingLevels: The bounce off 5000 (TL5) is a abc corrective pattern and can be complete.
Elliott Wave: five waves down from 5350 to 4950 then and abc rally close to 5200. So the rally can be complete, but corrections can simply double in size, so you always need to be very careful and use smaller position sizing
Trade Strategy: Look for a short trade from the 5100 as the resistance, but use the 5072 as resistance and trigger. if the price can find support on 5130 then it can push up, but the bias is the price stying under the last high

SPI CFD 4063
TradingLevels: The pattern over the last session at 4100 is corrective and therefor expect a break down
Trade Strategy: the night market is not closed, but you would be looking for a short trade from this overlapping corrective pattern at 4100

Summary

Copper is our guide stick into resources and its moving down out of its corrective pattern, this will drag heavily on the AUD and the XMJ Materials sector, so we will continue to hold short. The European session closed higher based of energy, but that is only a corrective rally in line with stock rally and will be short lived, look to short any rallies, do not be lured into longs, control.

The pattern on the SPI will also see lower ground, the next step is for the market to develop 4000 as the resistance, and once the retested resistance has developed at 4000 (ML4) we can add to current short positions.

The US markets are still bearish on all fronts and expecting lower levels over the sessions ahead, the current intraday patterns are also suggesting downside, as you know the 10,000 (TL1) is the magnet in psychology terms, this would also deliver the impulse wave of Minor degree, meaning five waves down from the 12800 high, once the five waves down are complete, expect a ABC rally then another five waves down in the next leg around the 7,200

Trading Quote
"There are no certainties in this investment world, and where there are no certainties, you should begin by understanding yourself."

Today's Financial Events
Time     Currency   Detail     Forecast    Previous
1:00pm NZD        Inflation Expectations q/q     3.0%
2:00pm AUD        RBA Deputy Gov Battellino Speaks
4:00pm CHF        Trade Balance    1.83B 1.77B
5:00pm EUR        French Flash Manufacturing PMI    50.4
5:00pm EUR        French Flash Services PMI    53.1 53.2
5:30pm EUR        German Flash Manufacturing PMI    51.2 52.0
5:30pm EUR        German Flash Services PMI    52.1 52.9
6:00pm EUR        Flash Manufacturing PMI    49.7 50.4
6:00pm EUR        Flash Services PMI    51.1 51.6
6:30pm GBP        BBA Mortgage Approvals    32.3K 31.7K
7:00pm EUR        German ZEW Economic Sentiment    -24.6 -15.1
7:00pm EUR        ZEW Economic Sentiment    -6.2 -7.0
8:00pm GBP        CBI Industrial Order Expectations    -13 -10
10:30pm CAD        Core Retail Sales m/m    0.4% 0.5%
10:30pm CAD        Retail Sales m/m    0.6% 0.1%
12:00am EUR        Consumer Confidence    -12 -11
12:00am GBP        MPC Member Weale Speaks
12:00am USD        New Home Sales    316K 312K
12:00am USD        Richmond Manufacturing Index    -7 -1
3:00am CAD        Gov Council Member Boivin Speaks

NOTES:
1. Check the Dividend & Reporting section for your stock on this site before trading
2. Prices may change as this report is written while markets are closing/trading
3. Always think things out for yourself, we are only here to bounce ideas around.

Good Morning & Good Luck!

»TOP

EarlyBird Report – 22 August

Dow Jones Cash 10,817 -1.60%
Base Metals steady
US Gold CFD: 1850
Oil WTI CFD: 82.70
Copper CFD: 397
US Dollar CFD: 74.98
EURUSD 1.4392
AUDUSD 1.04
Dow Jones CFD 10,837
S&P500 CFD: 1,125
FTSE 100 CFD: 5000
SPI CFD 4068

US News
U.S. stocks closed down Friday and notched its fourth straight losing week, as investors continued worrying about a potential global recession and the health of the European banking system.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average closed down 172.93 points, or 1.57%, to 10817.65. The index swung 284.99 points from its session highs to the lows in another volatile session. The zigzag action comes after the blue-chip index tumbled 419.63 points on Thursday. The 5.19% drop over Thursday and Friday's trading is the biggest two-day percentage drop since March 2, 2009.

Commodities

US Gold CFD: 1850
The reaction at SG2 (1865 I 1872 I 1880) is corrective and will produce new highs to 1900.
The current price is sticking to the Midpoint 1850, there is a space for the price to move to 1830 but the bias is for the price to find support on the midpoint before moving higher. The current correction to the Midpoint is a wave four, they can get complicated, however once completed will push higher above the 1872 towards 1900. The upside target is the MajorLevel TL2 2,000, this has been the target since it found support on the MediumLevel 1500, this is how the TradingLevels work and we will be doing the same thing at TL2

Oil WTI CFD: 82.70
The five waves down (impulse) from 88 (mTL8) to 80 (TL8) are completed and the three wave abc counter trend is under way, the bounce off 80.
The fives wave down from mTL8 to TL8 is considered wave one and the bounce as wave two, once this wave two is completed wave three down will start.
The wave two abc bounce off 80 can move to 83 or 85 the 40 to 60% normal range, this will depend on stock.
For traders that have been short from the failed retest of 100 (TL1) can add again once 80 (TL8) goes through the process of the retest of TL8 /80 as resistance. of course you can scatter positions above 80 during the bounce but the risk percentage must be managed and be within the overall percentage risk of the trade

Base Metals

US Spot Prices (24HR in l/b)
US Copper:           Last: 3.98+
US Nickel:             Last: 9.61-
US Zinc:                Last: 0.98-
US Aluminium       Last: 1.04-

Copper CFD: 397
Copper’s rally is simply part of the process of moving lower, the rally is the retest of supply that we see as a number the MediumLevel ML4 / 400.
We can expect this rally to fail and move lower, but as traders we follow rules, so a move above ML4 and the bias is positive. So the entry here, is the failed retest of ML4 /400. If you break the entry strategy down into the lower levels, so the 380 is the first MinorLevel and the 390 is the midpoint in this case, so 390 as resistance is a trigger and a place to add contracts. Breaking it down further from 390 to 400, the midpoint is 395 so this is also a trigger once it becomes the resistance the important numbers from 395 to 400 are 398 and 397.20 and 396.50 All that said use the 395 as the resistance. too short, to be on the more safer side.

Forex

US Dollar CFD: 74.98
This market is working into a corner, into the 74, this time when it finds the 74 as support or resistance should be the next trend.
Technically on the actual index a move under the 74.45 and its bearish and a Wave 5 down.
On the derivatives the 74.50 is the bearish trigger. From a trading point of view the first element is the 74 as S/R then in applying contracts the SG1 above 74 (7410 I 7420 I 7430) for scaling in long and below is SG2 (7380 I 7372 I 7365) the 7372 is the pivot, also look for add under the Midpoint 7350. If this is the case then we can look at 72

EURUSD 1.4392
TradingLevels: The Fibo number 144 as support or resistance is getting closer, don’t fall asleep this week, look to build in a longer tern trade from this price point. Get ready to use the sublevels either side of the 144.
Trade Strategy: work the sublevels SG1 and SG2 for long and short

AUDUSD 1.04
TradingLevels: Use 104 as support or resistance to trade from. The Elliott count is downwards towards 1.00
Elliott Wave: Five waves down for 106 close to 103 makes Wave (i) the rally up to 10480 is Wave (ii) this wave may not be complete but once it is then expect Wave (iii) down through 103, wave (iii) should be 161.8% of Wave (i) in length
Trade Strategy: Short if 104 becomes resistance using SG2 (1.0380 I 1.0372 I 1.0365) especial the 72.
On the long side if the top of subgroup1 10430 becomes support trade long to the Midpoint exit and wait for support.

Indices

Dow Jones CFD 10,837
TradingLevels: The retest of the MediumLevel 11500 as Minor Wave 4 is completed and Wave 5 down is unfolding. In this Wave 5 there will be five smaller waves and out of these five smaller waves wave one is completed and wave two is either still unfolding or completed, once it is completed then wave three four and five will unfolds down to make Wave 5.
Intraday support coming form these numbers 10,800, 10,772, 10,720 and 10,650 as a group or zone of support, beyond this is 10,500. We should expect a bounce from the zone mentioned, if however this zone becomes the resistance then add to shorts on the Dow and the stocks on the ASX
Elliott Wave: Minor Wave 5 down
Trade Strategy: Intraday traders need to work through these price points 10,800, 10,772, 10,720

S&P500 CFD: 1,125
TradingLevels: Yes the main trend is down, but there can be a bounce rally off the 1,100 back 1,172, this may not be the case but is has to go on the table, we will know more about this as the pattern unfolds into 1,100. If this is not the case then we can short from the price finding the 1,100 resistance and use the SG2 sublevels to short from (1080 I 1072 I 1065) especially the 1072 as resistance this is the main key under the 1,100 for the short
Trade Strategy: Understand the wave count but also understand the sublevels, in this case we will see a bumpy ride from SG1 (1110 I 1120 I 1130 ) and the 1,100

FTSE 100 CFD: 5000
TradingLevels: If you were short from the 5300 then understand the wave count within reason so you know when to add to the position.
Elliott Wave: The first five waves down are unfold and are two thirds complete, these five waves will be wave (i), which should be under the 5000, the a Wave (ii) abc then a wave (iii) down and so on, in line with the SP500… Minor Wave 5
Trade Strategy: Same - Understand the wave count so you can build in positions, it may take two or three session but you want the 5000 as resistance, it may pay to sprinkle very small position all around different prices, because we are looking for a move under the 4500. You also should know the 4800 and the 4772 are old lows and strong resistance, you can get a bounce back from 4800 to 5000 you need to allow for this, gotta put your thinking cap on, future favours the brave, but manage the risk, less is more.

SPI CFD 4068
TradingLevels: 4000 ML4 MediumLevel is the line in the sand. Expect a bounce but expect the price to end up as resistance.
Wave count, five waves down from 4300 to current low 4030 which we can label as Wave (i) and the Wave (ii) is underway now
Trade Strategy: I don’t know if the Wave (ii) is complete, so expect a bounce off the 4000 or SG1

Summary

Indices, you know Wave 4 is finished and we are in Wave 5 down. Within this Wave 5 down there is going to be five smaller waves… we are seeing wave (i) completing and Wave (ii) underway, once this Wave (ii) is completed then expect Wave (iii), (iv) and (v) down to complete the Wave 5. Most markets are in this pattern with only slight variations.

Base metals and oil are also in the same boat, the only unknown is the US Dollar which upsets the apple cart as we usually can use this as a leading indicator but we don’t need it in this case. However the Dollar and the Euro should become clear this weak and we will be looking to build a trade. The bias should stay with the Euro following the SP500, but theory and analysis is one thing and trading is another, let’s see if the 144 develops as support or resistance for the Euro this will also make other pairs clearer. The AUD is just following stock as the patterns are the same

ASX stocks, if Copper fails the retest at 400 then the XMJ Materials sector is down.
The XXJ & XFJ Finance is rolling over from its rally in line with the weaker US banks.
So we will continue to short this week, the fly in the ointment is the ASX200 XJO support at 4000 (ML4) expect a bounce, but when it does become the resistance add to shorts.

Please Check For ASX Ex Dividend & Reporting Dates:
Tip, If a stock is in a weekly trend down and goes ex dividend it normally gaps further than the div and will continue down, If the Weekly trend is up and the stock goes through Div it will drop to the div amount or less and recover in a week or so. This is all really amount the larger momentum or rather the flow of volume. If you have trouble working out where the volume momentum is, watch the volume video’s in the education section online courses, then look at your stock on a monthly chart at look and read the monthly volume, this will help. Volume is the reality price is the shadow.

Trading Quote
Success actually can stimulate fears about failing and about the impossibility of success. These increased anxiety levels may result in self-destructive behaviour and a succession of losing trades that bring the trader back to the starting point.

Today's Financial Events
Time     Currency   Detail     Forecast    Previous
12:00am USD        Mortgage Delinquencies     8.32%
12:30pm CNY        HSBC Flash Manufacturing PMI     49.3

NOTES:
1. Check the Dividend & Reporting section for your stock on this site before trading
2. Prices may change as this report is written while markets are closing/trading
3. Always think things out for yourself, we are only here to bounce ideas around.

Good Morning & Good Luck!

»TOP

EarlyBird Report – 19 August

Dow Jones Cash 10,900 -3.68%
Base Metals Negative
US Gold CFD: 1824
Oil WTI CFD: 82.40
Copper CFD: 392
US Dollar CFD: 74.32
EURUSD 1.4320
AUDUSD 1.0380
Dow Jones CFD 10,950
S&P500 CFD: 1,133
FTSE 100 CFD: 5047
SPI CFD 4142

US News
Stocks tumbled amid growing fears of a global recession, as investors confronted a grim mix of U.S. economic data and fresh concerns about Europe's banks.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average fell 435 points, or 3.8%, to 10974. The Standard & Poor's 500-stock index dropped 53 points, or 4.5%, to 1141, while the Nasdaq Composite lost 124 points, or 4.9%, to 2387.

In the flight to safety, investors piled into gold, which jumped to a new record above $1,820 a troy ounce. In the Treasurys market, the yield on the benchmark 10-year note briefly dipped below 2% in intraday trading for the first time since at least 1954, as investors sought refuge in U.S. debt.

"If it's not a recession, it sure feels like one. And if it feels like one, it doesn't matter if you can prove it with statistics or not," said John Hailer, president and CEO of Natixis Global Asset Management in the U.S. and Asia. "We have some real tough problems in front of us, and we really need some leadership in corporate America and Washington.... There's a lot of nervousness in the market."

The heaviest selling came in energy and materials stocks. Among Dow components, United Technologies fell 5.3%, Alcoa lost 5.8%, and Caterpillar tumbled 4.5%. Among big oil firms, Chevron lost 4.8%, and Exxon Mobil was off 4.4%.

Bank stocks were also under significant pressure. Bank of America was the biggest decliner among the Dow components, tumbling 6.2%, while J.P. Morgan Chase lost 4.5%.

Commodities

US Gold CFD: 1824
The first high above the level 1800 is unfolding, as mentioned the price is normally trapped within SG1 1830 before we see the retest of 1800.
The start of this TradingLevels Classic pattern was when it first arrived at 1800 on the 10^th August, The arrival, the reaction, the support, the first high above the level, then the ABC correction then the move higher to the Major level TL2 / 2,000 where a larger TradingLevels Classic pattern will occur

Oil WTI CFD: 82.40
The move here will depend on Stock, but 72 jumps to mind, however there is the little matter of 80 (TL8) MajorLevel. The Minor Group1 83, 82 and 81 will slow the move down as it filters through the covering and buying orders sitting at these levels and we should see the bounce of 80, the bounce would be in three waves ABC, the normal would be 61.8% of the move down from 88 (mTL8) but the main supply point would be around the top of Minor Goup1 83

Base Metals

US Spot Prices (24HR in l/b)
US Copper:           Last: 3.95-
US Nickel:             Last: 9.65-
US Zinc:                Last: 0.97-
US Aluminium       Last: 1.03-

Copper CFD: 392
Under MediumLevel 4 (ML4) 400 is negative, in its rise yesterday it could not develop any support on the sublevels in a real way, any way it’s clear the next leg is underway and the basis on this statement is the structure, that is the first five waves are nearly complete, meaning after a three wave rally another five waves will unfold down and then another

Forex

US Dollar CFD: 74.32
If the Euro locks under 143, then the bias is bullish for the US Dollar and bearish for the Euro, which would be in line with stocks, I feel better about this scenario, so we will go with that in our analysis.
So, with that in mind we can start working the US wave count up, from the 7350 we can start counting the first five waves up to 7450 – 7472 area then three back as the abc counter trend. If correct this should be the start of a long trend up, so building a trade is the strategy but you need to work out your tactics for managing the risk and the positions.
We can talk about ideas, such as starting with the 1 hour Robo, then developing the trade into the 4 hour Robo then the Daily then the weekly and monthly etc, then main point is managing the percentage risk on each new position that it fits into the percentage of risk of the whole trade

EURUSD 1.4320
TradingLevels: The price moving under the 143 creates the bearish outlook, because of over lapping wave structures; this is also in line with stock.
Trade Strategy: The price should not go back above the 14330.
The first five waves down from the last high around the 145 are still unfolding, which could end down around the 142, once the first five waves down ends then and abc rally say 50% then another five waves down. We will also need to line the larger move up with indices, meaning the Dow heading into 10,000 and the SP500 into 1,000 can have a high bounce or a low bounce which would affect the Euro. Any way we will start giving the pathway in this direction though.

AUDUSD 1.0380
TradingLevels: The 105 is the support, even though it hasn’t been fully retested, the target has been the 61.8% just above the 106.
Elliott Wave: That’s the top of the rally, close the 61.8% around 106. The price will work low is a series of five waves down and three waves back as abc counter trend in line with indices
Trade Strategy: Scalping is fine with the sublevels and micro levels but for trend trading, you need to have the first five waves down for Wave (i) competed then the abc rally for Wave (ii) this is where the short should happen from, this will take another session or two for this set up to fall into place, it will also be the same for the indices. We will be working on this.

Indices

Dow Jones CFD 10,950
TradingLevels: 10,000 is next MajorLevel target. The Dow works to every hundred points and this is great for trading, but the focus is 10,800, 10500, 10,300, 10,200, 10,100 these are all minor level in the Fibo ratio as price. The 11,000 is also important and that is would the traders are thinking of now, but the consolidation at this price point is corrective a continuation pattern once complete expect further downside. It is important to understand the wave count now
Elliott Wave: Minor Wave 4 is completed at the MediumLevel 11500, we are now looking at Minor Wave 5 unfolding down towards 10,000 Major Trading levels TL1
Trade Strategy: Work each Minor trading Level as support and resistance, the 11,000 is the resistance and likely the wave four. The 10,800 then the 10,500 there is also each 100 points and 10,772 and 10,650 that you should be aware of.

S&P500 CFD: 1,133
TradingLevels: We should see the first five waves down to 1100 as Wave (i), then a abc rally for Wave (ii) then Wave (iii) and so on, through the 1,000
Trade Strategy: Trend traders can stay with the daily Robo and scalpers scalp from the levels

FTSE 100 CFD: 5047
TradingLevels: If you were short from the 5300 then understand the wave count within reason so you know when to add to the position.
Elliott Wave: The first five waves down are unfold and are two thirds complete, these five waves will be wave (i), which should be under the 5000, the a Wave (ii) abc then a wave (iii) down and so on, in line with the SP500… Minor Wave 5
Trade Strategy: Understand the wave count so you can build in positions, it may take two or three session but you want the 5000 as resistance, it may pay to sprinkle very small position all around different prices, because we are looking for a move under the 4500. You also should know the 4800 and the 4772 are old lows and strong resistance, you can get a bounce back from 4800 to 5000 you need to allow for this, gotta put your thinking cap on, future favours the brave, but manage the risk, less is more.

SPI CFD 4142
TradingLevels: It’s quite clear the rally as wave 4 is completed and Wave 5 down is underway. In wave 5 there will be five smaller waves, we are still in the first wave on of those five. The first small five waves will be fron the 4300 to 4100 roughly then and abc counter trend then another five down that should pick up speed, moving through the 4000
Trade Strategy: If you were on the right side of 4272 you would be short, after the five waves down are completed, scale out into 4100 but leaving some in the market in case it drops further, but what you’re looking for the abc rally a 5-4-5 wave structure and short that. We will talk more about this, because it will be a wave three trade, fast.

Summary

Dow, I have worked with 11500 in the previous bear market and was preparing for a longer stay here, so I glad it was short and sweet as a retest. Any way that completes Minor Wave 4 and Wave 5 is under way with 10,000 (TL1) as the target, the target is just a guess I haven’t looked at the wave ratio’s yet, but the point to understand is this Wave 5 is the last of the five wave structure from the last high under the 13000. So the Elliott storey would be five waves down from the below the 13000 to 10,000 then a three wave ABC counter trend back up, normally 61.8% of the five waves, but we will talk about that shortly, after the ABC counter trend then we should see another five waves down, but this set of five wave will be part of a larger structure and a third wave, meaning the market should pick up speed to the down side. The top of this ABC is where we will be looking to short the US indices and Stock, this is where the money is, as long as ASIC doesn’t ban short selling

PS Check For ASX Ex Dividend & Reporting Dates

Trading Quote
"The difficulty lies, not in the new ideas, but in escaping from the old ones, which ramify, for those brought up as most of us have been, into every corner of our minds."

Today's Financial Events
Time     Currency   Detail     Forecast    Previous
8:45am NZD        Visitor Arrivals m/m     -5.1%
1:00pm NZD        Credit Card Spending y/y     4.5%
2:30pm JPY        All Industries Activity m/m    2.3% 2.0%
4:00pm EUR        German PPI m/m    0.2% 0.1%
6:30pm GBP        Public Sector Net Borrowing    0.4B 12.0B
9:00pm CAD        Core CPI m/m    0.2% -0.6%
9:00pm CAD        CPI m/m    0.2% -0.7%
10:30pm USD        FOMC Member Dudley Speaks

NOTES:
1. Check the Dividend & Reporting section for your stock on this site before trading
2. Prices may change as this report is written while markets are closing/trading
3. Always think things out for yourself, we are only here to bounce ideas around.

Good Morning & Good Luck!

»TOP

EarlyBird Report – 18 August

Dow Jones Cash 11,410 +0.04%
Base Metals Positive
US Gold CFD: 1790
Oil WTI CFD: 87.69
Copper CFD: 403
US Dollar CFD: 73.76
EURUSD 1.4450
AUDUSD 1.0565
S&P500 CFD: 1,190
FTSE 100 CFD: 5320
SPI CFD 4265

US News
Stocks battled to a slight loss in late trading as investors weighed earnings from some high-profile retailers against signs of rising input costs and continued dissatisfaction over efforts to find a solution to Europe's debt woes.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average shed 21 points, or 0.2%, to 11385 in recent trading, after being up 124 points earlier in the session. The Standard & Poor's 500-stock index fell two points, or 0.1%, to 1191, while the Nasdaq Composite fell 19 points, or 0.8%, to 2504.

Leading the decliners were technology and consumer-discretionary stocks. Hewlett-Packard fell 3.9% to lead the Dow laggards, after rival Dell tumbled 10%. Investors dumped shares in computer-maker Dell after it reported slowing sales and lowered its full-year revenue target. Dell said it expected revenue to climb 1% to 5% for the year, lower than its previous range of 5% to 9%, as it faces a challenging sales environment.

Commodities

US Gold CFD: 1790
Expect the Classic TradingLevels pattern across 1800 (mTL8).
Counting five wave from the last low 1720 area to above 1800 (SG1).
The Classic pattern, a reaction at 1800 then creating the first high above the level 1800 then a larger correction above and below 1800

Oil WTI CFD: 87.69
There is the beginning, middle and end to a trend in any time frame and each section has a certain look, the beginning is a building process, with sharp declines, the centre is normally the strongest and longest and the end is a little like the beginning, in that there are overlapping wave structures where the price is creeping along, this is sign that its tied and ending and this ending process is what we are seeing in Oil starting at 85 to 88 yes it can push higher. The move down from 100 to roughly 75 was on increasing volume and the current move up on diminishing volume another sign of weakness for that degree of trend

Base Metals

US Spot Prices (24HR in l/b)
US Copper:           Last: 4.03+
US Nickel:             Last: 9.92+
US Zinc:                Last: 0.99+
US Aluminium       Last: 1.06+

Copper CFD: 403
Above 400 the MediumLevel is a positive sign.
The path of positive steps is, support on 403 then 405 then 410.
It hasn’t managed to find support on 403 before over the last three weeks, let’s see if this occurs first. Coppers pattern over the last weeks hasn’t moved up like other markets, was this weaker or just lagging? Either way any move up here will strength the outlook for growth

Forex

US Dollar CFD: 73.76
The next important line in the sands are 7350 (Daily double bottom) and 72.
For trading purposes work the SG2 zone and especially the 7372
Patterns, as you know we are working two patterns for the Dollar and of course the Euro, we are now moving into the juncture where we can eliminate one of the patterns, will post intraday Euro charts today with both counts

EURUSD 1.4450
TradingLevels: Two larger counts, one bearish one bullish, the Triangle pattern for the bearish count has the top in place now at the last high last night. Or the Bullish count that will see the market find support above 143 and push higher. If we look at it from the US indices point of view the Euro should go down
Trade Strategy: The price is still traveling the natural path across the 144 level and still has more work to do here, because of two wave counts we don’t know the break of the larger picture, so using the 144 as support or resistance is the next logical step and this may take a few session to really sort out. If it’s going to be bearish then look at the last time it was above 144 around the 25^th and study the retest of the 144 resistance, the path it traced out.
Short term the current move up of the 14430, if the price can find support on 14450 then trade to 14465 and 14472, this is where the supply and resistance starts and where it can fail for a short.

AUDUSD 1.0565
TradingLevels: The 105 is the support, even though it hasn’t been fully retested, the target has been the 61.8% just above the 106.
Elliott Wave: There are two ways to count the ABC rally, there will be the ones on the charts and a different one here in the EarlyBird, this way you can be aware of both situations. There is good support say from the 10450 up to 105 so until the price move down through this support the trend is up and supported
Trade Strategy: Work the SG2 10565 I 10572 I 10580, the important pivot is the 10572 as support or resistance

Indices

Dow Jones CFD 11,400
TradingLevels: A move under the 11300 is a bearish sign
Elliott Wave: Unsure if the Wave 4 is now completed at 11500 or is there another push higher and of course will the 11500 become support, we are in the thick of it here and we simply need to allow the price to play out. You know, we think this is just a rally and we are looking for a top, you also should know if support on the 11500 is found then we will trade long, we are simply being patient in the aim of getting our timing and direction in this case right
Trade Strategy: Depending on your time frame, but if your trading the 100 game then if the price finds support on 11400, scale in through SG1 and trade long to the 11450 take 75% and wait for support on the midpoint, then trade to 11465 or 11472 and exit. If the 11400 becomes resistance the use SG2 and especially the 11372 as resistance to move in short

S&P500 CFD: 1,190
TradingLevels: The Dow at 11500 and the SP at 1200 are working through the resistance, we are unsure if the these resistance levels will hols to see the markets fall from here of eventually find support, it doesn’t really matter what happens, we just need to wait for the market to tell us what to do. The volume aspect the first week in the rally had strong volume and this week has had low volume, so there isn’t any follow through volume for the trend up, this would be a sign of weakness
Trade Strategy: Wait… or use the Daily Robo

FTSE 100 CFD: 5320
TradingLevels: The 5300 is the line in the sand, so use SG1 above and SG2 below to scale in long or short.
Elliott Wave: The top can be in place, but the evidence is required
Trade Strategy: be on the right side of 5300. Use SG1 above and SG2 to short (5272 as resistance)

SPI CFD 4265
TradingLevels: The 4300 as support or resistance is the focus. This is the top of Minor Group1 and success of failure here creates the bigger picture, we are in Elliott terms looking for a top here, but as always we need the evidence either way
Trade Strategy: Use the 4272 as support or resistance and be on the right side of that.

Summary

The battle of support and resistance is being played out at the levels we have been talking about with the Dow at 1150 the SP500 at 1200 and the SPI /ASX200 at 4300, we are in the thick of it at the moment and the markets can move either way from here, you know in Elliott terms we are searching for a top here, but we will use the levels to rule this out, simply be using the levels mentioned as support and if we see this levels failing as support we know what to expect on the down side. We also understood before getting to these levels this would all take time.

I could have done a better job with putting longs out especially in the reporting seasons but my thinking was, that if the market did turn many trades are reluctant to get out of the longs.
If you are trading long use the daily weekly or monthly Robo to protect any position if the market does turn down, the bigger picture on the US Indices certainly have a reasonable case that this current move up is a rally and the job of a rally is to get every one long, once we are all emotionally drawn in, there is no one left to push the market up

PS. Check For ASX Ex Dividend & Reporting Dates

Trading Quote
"Look for the setup that scares you the most. That's the one you probably need to trade. Don't expect to feel comfortable until an active position finally closes out. If it feels too good, everyone else will trade it the same way and become the crowd."

Today's Financial Events
Time     Currency   Detail     Forecast    Previous
9:50am JPY        Trade Balance    -0.12T -0.19T
6:30pm GBP        Retail Sales m/m    0.3% 0.7%
10:30pm CAD        Leading Index m/m    0.5% 0.2%
10:30pm CAD        Wholesale Sales m/m    1.5% 1.9%
10:30pm USD        Core CPI m/m    0.2% 0.3%
10:30pm USD        Unemployment Claims    403K 395K
10:30pm USD        CPI m/m    0.2% -0.2%
10:35pm USD        FOMC Member Dudley Speaks
12:00am USD        Existing Home Sales    4.92M 4.77M
12:00am USD        Philly Fed Manufacturing Index    4.2 3.2
12:00am USD        CB Leading Index m/m    0.2% 0.3%
12:30am CAD        BOC Review
12:30am USD        Natural Gas Storage     25B

NOTES:
1. Check the Dividend & Reporting section for your stock on this site before trading
2. Prices may change as this report is written while markets are closing/trading
3. Always think things out for yourself, we are only here to bounce ideas around.

Good Morning & Good Luck!

»TOP

EarlyBird Report – 17 August

Dow Jones Cash 11,443 -0.34%
Base Metals Flat
US Gold CFD: 1780
Oil WTI CFD: 86.57
Copper CFD: 398
US Dollar CFD: 74.05
EURUSD 1.44
AUDUSD 1.0450
Dow Jones CFD 11,450
S&P500 CFD: 1,200
FTSE 100 CFD: 5330
SPI CFD 4220

US News
U.S. stocks fell in choppy early-afternoon trading, as investors expressed disappointment over proposed measures from European officials to strengthen euro-zone fiscal governance.

Commodities

US Gold CFD: 1780
The move up is looking more like an impulse wave than a corrective wave.
Technically as long as it stays above 1750 consider it bullish.
However the move up will need to be corrected so it can pull back 61.8% that is around the 1750m but there is support around the 1760 and above within SG2.
Expect a pullback here at the 1780 or at 1800, but the trend has the appearance of pushing higher through 1800 after a corrective process

Oil WTI CFD: 86.57
Oil is and will have problems with 88 (mTL8) The profit taking number. The sublevel half way between 85 and 88 the 8650 is the balance line at this current high. A move under 85 is a breakdown of the trend, even under the 8650 is the start. This is much the same pattern as the Dow, which you can see on the 30 minute chart.

Base Metals

US Spot Prices (24HR in l/b)
US Copper:           Last: 3.99-
US Nickel:             Last: 9.80-
US Zinc:                Last: 0.97-
US Aluminium       Last: 1.05

Copper CFD: 398
The pattern at the MediumLevel ML4 / 400 appears corrective in its structure, a move under the 395 can trigger an impulse wave down, creating the start of the next trend down and under 390 would confirm this, this of course is a locking under the 400 as resistance and that’s what its doing now, but the small pattern under the 400 can also be bullish corrective and can move back above, we need to see five small waves down, a failing of the current retest at 400 for the evidence of the next leg down.

Forex

US Dollar CFD: 74.05
In the bigger picture, the Euro and the DXY have two probable larger patterns (Triangles) that can sent the markets either way, looking at the direction and wave count of the SP500 as bearish in the bigger picture would have the Euro moving down and the DXY up. So the current high in the Euro can be a top of the last leg in the triangle and the DXY current low the low, a move below 73.50 for the Dollar would create a bearish outlook for the Dollar and a bullish scenario for the Euro, and this would create and bullish picture for the SP500 and the AUDUSD and this was not our thinking. Analysis is analysis and trading is trading and trading for me is using support and resistance, if the wave count can confirm the direction great, if not I still go with support and resistance. If the 144 on the Euro finds support then we will add to the long side.

EURUSD 1.44
TradingLevels: This current high can be the top of the daily triangle, but if the 144 finds support then we will add to the small long position we have around 143. A move under the 14350 creates the start of a break down in the trend up.
Trade Strategy: If 144 does become support, then scale in through SG1 14410 I 14420 I 14430, if the top of SG1 becomes support then the price will move higher to the midpoint. Also look for the DXY to lock under 74.00

AUDUSD 1.0450
TradingLevels: The 105 is giving grief to the AUD as expected, but should push up through as there is more to unfold in the wave structure, the 106 is the 61.8% retracement level.
The SP500 and AUDUSD are moving in sync…
Elliott Wave: We are considering the move up from 1.00 a rally in line with the SP500 the structure is an ABC and are now in the later stages of the Wave C of the ABC, we are looking at a wave five to move above 1.05 in due course
Trade Strategy: Once above 105 find a way in long, the 4 hour Robo should have you long again (SG1 – 10430+) after shorting from the 105 area. / being on the right side of SG2 today (10465 I 10472 I 10480, the 10472 is the balance line)

Indices

Dow Jones CFD 11,450
TradingLevels: As long as the price stays above 11300 the market is bullish.
The resistance is as you know 11500, but my thoughts were that the price would push above 11500 but fail to find support in the end. But of course it can fail at 11500, this is something that just has to play out and we were looking towards the and eight day rally because of the thirteen day bear in the last leg, but Fibo works better with price rather than time, there is still something that we are missing on the time aspect using Fibo a puzzle unresolved. That said we were looking at the weekly cycle for the high Wed close or Thursday morning
Elliott Wave: Wave 4, this corrective rally is messy, its hard to count, so I was looking at the AUDUSD wave count because our Dollar is in sync with the SP500 and the AUDUSD at 105 still has another wave 5 to going in the Wave C of the ABC rally
Trade Strategy: The SG2 11465 I 11472 I 11480 are the front line resistance’ the price is battling to get to 11500 (ML15) The comments above have given space to a move higher above 11500, but the high can also be in place now, there is no evidence of this, but a move under the 11300 would be confirmation but of course we can edge in higher like the 11350 and the 11472, with the expectation that the 11472 will hold. Day traders can use 11444.

S&P500 CFD: 1,200
TradingLevels: The rally can finished here at 1200 or a push higher to 1220/30
Trade Strategy: The SP500 and the AUDUSD are moving in sync so if the AUD pushes higher then expect the SP500 to push higher.

FTSE 100 CFD: 5330
TradingLevels: The 38.2% retracement level has been met around the 5400 target and now we are starting to see a little weakness, the FSTE does have a relationship with the Australian market and I think that has also reached its rally target as other Asian markets are turning down from there rallies..
Elliott Wave: If the 5300 becomes resistance then think short also use the SG2 5272 as this is the subtle support
Trade Strategy: The price action over the last few sessions is either putting a top in place or a larger correction for the upside, but because of the Asian markets rolling over somewhat the bias can be bearish, so looking for he set up is next the 5272 is a key as a resistance. we will talk about this more in the video

SPI CFD 4220
TradingLevels: If the price locks under the 4200 then its connects with the 4000 again, if it had found support on 4300 the top of Minor Group1 then it would be free to move higher and that maybe that’s the case but unlikely as other Asian market are rolling over somewhat.
So it’s likely the rally is coming to an end, the wave four rally is likely to be over and the next move down under way.
The price under the 4200 is part of the evidence required. But remember the next degree higher the 4000 is still the support, but locking under the 4200 allows for the 4000 and the 3800 low to be tested. We also need to see the evidence from the SP500 and the AUD
Trade Strategy: Trade the sublevels as support and resistance until the bigger picture is clear

Summary

It’s only natural to see the Dow struggle at the MediumLevel 11500 and can expect another push higher, however the Asian markets may have completed their Wave 4 rallies, we understood the 4300 for the ASX200 is critical as support and resistance and we are seeing a failing there. If we can see the Hang Seng back under 20,000 (TL2) The Shanghai under 2550 then we have the first leads the rally is completed. The AUDSUD is one of the leading indicators of the rally and that still seems to have another push higher to complete its rally and the importance of this is that it is in sync with the SP500.
I’m probably, like usual making this complicated, but the point is that there is the first glimmer of evidence that the rally up and in most cases around the world a Wave 4 rally has ended in some cases or is close to ending. It’s not about being right or wrong in the guessing game, but to make us aware of possibilities so we can be proactive in our process and this means looking for short trades on the daily Robo, it also means scaling in, using very small position sizes because there is risk, we don’t have the full evidence of a turn, we have not seen the first five waves down in the US indices, so we can get trapped… The ASX200 locking under 4200 is important and weak banks are also required not only here but in the US as the economy doesn’t move without the banks.

Any way we were looking for the Dow to fail at the 11500 – 11650 and we haven’t seen that yet, we are just getting lost in the detail, we were thinking an 5 or more so 8 day rally because of the 13 days down and that the weekly cycle would deliver the high on the Wed or Thursday in the US. It is a time to reduce longs and if the 4300 becomes support then go back in long we are just at the juncture of risk and we should move with it.

PS. Check For ASX Ex Dividend & Reporting Dates

Trading Quote
"Not risking is the surest way of losing. If you do not risk, risk eventually comes to you. There is simply no way to avoid taking a risk. If a person postpones taking risks, the time eventually comes when he will either be forced to accept a situation that he does not like or take a risk unprepared."

Today's Financial Events
Time     Currency   Detail     Forecast    Previous
8:45am NZD        PPI Input q/q    1.2% 2.2%
8:45am NZD        PPI Output q/q    0.8% 1.7%
10:30am AUD        MI Leading Index m/m     -0.1%
11:30am AUD        Wage Price Index q/q    0.9% 0.8%
5:30pm USD        PPI m/m    0.0% -0.4%
6:00pm EUR        Current Account    -3.6B -5.2B
6:30pm GBP        Claimant Count Change    20.2K 24.5K
6:30pm GBP        MPC Meeting Minutes    2-0-7 2-0-7
6:30pm GBP        Average Earnings Index 3m/y    2.3% 2.3%
6:30pm GBP        Unemployment Rate    7.7% 7.7%
7:00pm EUR        CPI y/y    2.5% 2.5%
7:00pm EUR        Core CPI y/y    1.7% 1.6%
10:30pm CAD        Foreign Securities Purchases    10.33B 15.40B
10:30pm USD        Core PPI m/m    0.2% 0.3%
Aug 18 12:30am USD        Crude Oil Inventories     -5.2M

NOTES:
1. Check the Dividend & Reporting section for your stock on this site before trading
2. Prices may change as this report is written while markets are closing/trading
3. Always think things out for yourself, we are only here to bounce ideas around.

Good Morning & Good Luck!

»TOP

EarlyBird Report – 16 August

Dow Jones Cash 11,482 +1.90%
Base Metals steady
US Gold CFD: 1765
Oil WTI CFD: 87.80
Copper CFD: 403
US Dollar CFD: 73.92
EURUSD 1.4450
AUDUSD 1.05
Dow Jones CFD 11,468
S&P500 CFD: 1,200
FTSE 100 CFD: 5390
SPI CFD 4300

US News -
U.S. stocks advanced Monday, wiping out last week's losses, as corporate deal making helped send blue chips to their first three-day winning streak in six weeks.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average finished 213.88 points higher, or 1.90%, to 11482.90, closing near session highs for a third straight advance. The last three-day string of gains for the blue-chip Dow ended July 1. Markets have grown increasingly volatile in recent weeks amid worries of an economic slowdown and debt problems in the U.S. and Europe.

The Standard & Poor's 500-stock index ended with a 25.68-point gain, or 2.18%, at 1204.49, led by the utility and energy sectors. The technology-oriented Nasdaq Composite gained 47.22 points, or 1.88%, to 2555.20. All three indexes wiped out their losses from last week.

Motorola Mobility soared 56%, leading the S&P 500, after Google agreed to acquire the company for about $12.5 billion in cash. The move was seen helping Google compete more directly with Apple in the competitive mobile-communications industry. It also gives Google a trove of coveted mobile-device patents. Google's shares lost 1.2%

Commodities

US Gold CFD: 1765
The rally target off 1700 is the 61.8% retracement at 1780 and expect the 1772 and the 1780 (SG2) to at least create a short term top, after this short term top if the market finds support on 1172 then it can push higher to retest 1800.
The target to the downside around the 1650 is still on the cards, however I would also like to stay with the pattern at the 1800 as the Classic pattern at a level in this case the 1800 and that is when the price first reached the 1800 (the arrival) it was sold off (the reaction) looking for support (support) the current support at 23.6% 1720 is the minimum requirement for the retracement and is acceptable. If this is the support, then the next part in the process of the Classic pattern is the first high above the level, normally within SG1, in this case under the 1830, once this first high is in place then a larger ABC correction will take place above and more so below the 1800 (mTL8) MinorLevel.
So the first high above the level would be up in five waves (impulse wave), so count five waves from the 1720.
The flip side is that the move up at this stage can be corrective retracing to the 61.8% 1780 this would be in three wave abc, if it is an small abc to 1772 – 1780 then new lows would form in five waves down towards 1680 – 1650
So there is a small juncture we have to see the market unfold before we can make a clear decision, that is five or three waves up.
We are not missing out on anything here… if you were long the stop would need to be at 1737 and you would be trading to 1772, 1780 and 1797. The supply resistance is from 1772 to 1800.

Oil WTI CFD: 87.80
The support on 85 (mTL5) holds for the retest and moves with stock to the next MinorLevel target 88 (mTL8).
In the larger pattern this is a retest of the MediumLevel 90 (ML9) the price will push above 88 but expect a corrective pattern across mTL8.
The 88 and 90 is the 50 – 62% retracement levels, for a bullish count the price would need to prove itself and that would be finding solid support on 90, if this occurred the Dow would have support on 11500 and the SP500 on 1200 and the ASX200 on 4300 then we can consider long positions as a prospect.

Base Metals

US Spot Prices (24HR in l/b)
US Copper:           Last: 4.03+
US Nickel:             Last: 9.60+
US Zinc:                Last: 0.98+
US Aluminium       Last: 1.05-

Copper CFD: 403
From a trading point of view the MediumLevel ML4 / 400 is the line in the sand, the more support here the more potential for the upside, so support on 405 then 410 is would you’re looking for on the long side, any move under the 397 and the short is in play.
We have been taking of this current move up as a rally and we will stay with that until proven wrong in the analysis, however support is support and is part of the setup, if 105 becomes support then one small position long and I mean small as it can fail at 108 or 110, if the 110 finds support add the second small position. On the downside if the 398 is retested as resistance and fails you need to be short. This trading game is not about being right or wrong in the analysis, it’s about being on the right side of the closet largest number.

Forex

US Dollar CFD: 73.92
The last retest of 74.72 and the breaking through 7465 (SG2) and then the Midpoint 74.50 creates the short here, the next part in the process is the 74 becoming the resistance, the price will flicker around in a small fourth wave correction before moving down further, we can look towards 73, but understand the sublevel between 74 and 73, the sharp move down was a small wave three, so there a series of fourth and fifth waves to play out under the 7350 to 73, so what you see is not what you get in terms of structure, what you see from 75 to 7450 is what you will get.

EURUSD 1.4450
TradingLevels: The price should now create support above 144
Trade Strategy: If your long from 143, well done, if you’re going for the long term leave the stop under 143 until the 144 has been tested as the support. If you’re not long then wait for a pullback to check the strength on the trend, you may get lucky and we will see a quick test of 144, but you may have to use the support that will develop on 14450. If you are long look to add a small position anywhere here between 144 and 145

AUDUSD 1.05
TradingLevels: The 105 will see a correction and abc then a move higher
Elliott Wave: Counting the structure from the 101 on the 10^th as an impulse wave should see a abc correction at 105 then a move to 106
Trade Strategy: The Robo did not get you short it kept you long, just be careful at 105 as a time consuming wave four may be about to unfold, but the target is the 61.8% at 106

Indices

Dow Jones CFD 11,468
TradingLevels: ok we are now reaching the MediumLevel 11500, just setting back a little to keep things in perspective. In the medium term view and that is working with the MediumLevel 11500, what this means is giving it room to move so we don’t jump to any wrong conclusions, the 11500 is the line in the sand to be long or short, however we do need to allow it time to develop as support or resistance. Firstly the upside, that is the first high above the level of 11500 is 11650, it’s from the 11650 that we are likely to see the main retest of 11500, it is this retest that we are interested in, will this retest fail to find support or will it find support, this is the basis for being long or short. This will be the same for the SP500 at 1200 and the ASX200 at 4300 and the AUDUSD at 105 this is the point that we trade from, we just need to wait to find out which way we are going.
Elliott Wave: Wave 4
Trade Strategy: If you have been long from 11300 to 1150 then great, however lighten up here at 11500 we should expect swings across this level. but the reality is the trend is up so stay long until proven otherwise, just reduce into 11500 until you have it as support

S&P500 CFD: 1,200
TradingLevels: The Wave for rally target is the 38.2% around the 1200. If support is found here like the Dow at 11500 then we have to look higher to 1260.
Trade Strategy: Waiting for the 1200 to show up as support or resistance, a move back under 1172 would be the short side. Regarding what occurring now, the price is edging higher, the 1200 will play a part, the 1230 SG1 is likely to create the first small first high above the 1200 level for the retest back onto 1200, its only after this process that we can work out if we are going to get the 1200 as support or resistance. Yes we are treating the move up as a rally, however if support is going to be found on 1200, then we would trade to the 61.8% level the 1260, which is turn would see our ASX200 at 4500

FTSE 100 CFD: 5390
TradingLevels: The resistance in terms of supply will thicken up between 5400 and 5500
Support on 5300 is a positive sign and would be long on support on top of a group1
Elliott Wave: The rally continues, however support on 5300 Minor Group1 (MG1) off the bullish element in trading terms for a minor degree trade to 5500 and support on 5500 would see further upside.
Trade Strategy: Much the same as the last post, scaling in on 5300 (MG1) and SubGroup1 (SG1) 5310 I 5320 I 5330 then the Midpoint. Scaling out through SG2 then waiting for the 5400 support and repeating the process through the Sub groups

SPI CFD 4300
TradingLevels: The 4300 (mTL3) a MinorLevel but also the top of Minor Group 1 this has significance, support here separates its self from the 4000, subtle but important to work with.
The Dow will also be working with 1150 and the SP500 1200 support on all these levels creates the trade up. We should also consider the process of pattern that can occur at a level, as of now the price has just arrived at all these levels on these indices. The two normal patterns are the ‘Overshoot’ and the ‘Classic patterns’
Trade Strategy: The SPI has reasonable support starting at the Midpoint 4250 then at SG2 2465 I 4272 I 4280, so any corrective pattern that occurs at 4300 will be looking for these supports under 4300. It’s normal to expect a corrective pattern at whole number and in this case the 4300 (mTL3) and the top of Minor Group1. The sublevel SG1 4310 I 4320 I 4330 are important and one would trade to 4330 and exit, wait for the top of subgroup1 4330 to becomes the retested support and move back in and trade to the midpoint.
It’s a good idea to also observe the Dow Futures. The Shanghai will have subtle resistance at 2650 but more at the 2700 to 2720 this is a key area to observe and use as support or resistance, support here would see the price at 2800 for the Shanghai, the other one to watch is the copper market, support on 405 is a start but support on 410 is part of the driving element of strength

Summary

The leading markets are the AUDUSD, SPI, Shenzhen, with the Dollar Index breaking to the low side and the Euro to the upside this further supports the current rally in indices.

Indices - What we have been waiting for is support or resistance at certain price points.
The support we are waiting for is the Dow at 11500, the SP500 at 1200 and the ASX200 at 4300 all of these markets are close or have arrived at these levels, but it’s not enough for them to simply touch these numbers they need to play out at these levels and that can take some time, this playing out is what we are going to be taking about over the days ahead, there are two basic patterns that play out at the price levels the Overshoot and the Classic patterns, there are in the Online video courses in the education tab.

We are still considering the moves up as rallies and we need them to reach their targets as mentioned above and then play out their patterns at these levels, ending up as support or resistance so we will trade long or short from that situation, this playing out of patterns simply takes time and a lot of emotion comes and goes, this is why we pick out certain markets and hedge our bets with small positions and generally keep busy in a positive proactive manner.

We have long and short trades open in the markets and we are waiting for the medium term picture to offer the markets as support or resistance, that’s the bottom line and can take another three days to sort out, for the Dow we were looking at 13 days down so 5 or 8 days as a ratio rally is about right

PS. Check For ASX Ex Dividend & Reporting Dates

Trading Quote
"A poor chess player can still make a remarkable move." - Wang Yinggui

Today's Financial Events
Time     Currency   Detail    Forecast    Previous
11:30am AUD        Monetary Policy Meeting Minutes
12:00pm CNY        CB Leading Index m/m     0.5%
4:00pm EUR        German Prelim GDP q/q    0.5% 1.5%
6:30pm GBP        CPI y/y    4.3% 4.2%
6:30pm GBP        RPI y/y    5.0% 5.0%
6:30pm GBP        Core CPI y/y    3.1% 2.8%
6:30pm GBP        DCLG HPI y/y    0.9% -1.6%
7:00pm EUR        Flash GDP q/q    0.3% 0.8%
7:00pm EUR        Trade Balance    0.3B -0.6B
Tentative GBP        BOE Inflation Letter
10:30pm CAD        Manufacturing Sales m/m    -0.3% -0.8%
10:30pm USD        Building Permits    0.61M 0.62M
10:30pm USD        Housing Starts    0.60M 0.63M
10:30pm USD        Import Prices m/m    0.0% -0.5%
11:15pm USD        Capacity Utilization Rate    77.0% 76.7%
11:15pm USD        Industrial Production m/m    0.5% 0.2%
Tentative USD        Loan Officer Survey

NOTES:
1. Check the Dividend & Reporting section for your stock on this site before trading
2. Prices may change as this report is written while markets are closing/trading
3. Always think things out for yourself, we are only here to bounce ideas around.

Good Morning & Good Luck!
»TOP

EarlyBird Report – 15 August

Dow Jones Cash 11,269 +1.12%
Base Metals Negative
US Gold CFD: 1746
Oil WTI CFD: 85.35
Copper CFD: 399
US Dollar CFD: 74.66
EURUSD 1.4246
AUDUSD 1.0353
Dow Jones CFD 11,283
S&P500 CFD: 1,180
FTSE 100 CFD: 5320
SPI CFD 4150

US News -
European equity markets rallied for a second session Friday after several countries introduced short-selling bans.

U.S. blue-chip stocks pared some early gains following a weaker-than-expected reading on consumer confidence as investors braced for the end of one of the most volatile weeks in Wall Street history.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average was recently up 34 points, or 0.3%, to 11177, led higher by Walt Disney, which rose 2.7%. Hewlett-Packard gained 2.5% and Caterpillar rose 2.3%. It earlier gained as much as 151 points. A closing gain on Friday would be the index's first back-to-back rally since July 7.

The Standard & Poor's 500-stock index gained 1 point, or 0.1%, to 1173, led by energy and industrial stocks. The measure hasn't had two-straight sessions of gains since July 22. The technology-oriented Nasdaq Composite fell 5 points, or 0.2%, to 2488.

Investors pulled back early gains after an indicator of consumer sentiment showed a sharp fall in August. The consumer sentiment index from Reuters/University of Michigan tumbled to 54.9 in mid-August, down sharply from 63.7 in late July. Economists had expected the reading to ease only to 62.

Consumer confidence data came after retail sales, an important indicator of consumer spending and typically a major driver of economic growth, rose 0.5% in July. Consumers spent more on gasoline, electronics and other merchandise, potentially easing concerns that Americans are pulling back.

"The data show all the wheels aren't falling off the U.S. economy," said Seth Setrakian, co-head of U.S. equities at First New York Securities. "It's not great, but it's sluggish and consistent with the slow growth profile the economy has been exhibiting."

Commodities

US Gold CFD: 1746
The abc correction down is unfolding in the right way, it has touched on the Fibonacci 23.6% close to the 1720 (72) also a low of the previous fourth wave of two lesser degrees (it’s normal for a price to bounce off 23.6%), however we were expecting the structure to come further down to the 38.2% 1672 (SG2). It may not come this far down but its best to start from the outside and work in.
Traders think would be thinking the financials would be stabilising and this is why gold is pulling back, but for we are looking at the Wave 4 rally in the SP500 to complete around 1200 once this Wave 4 structure is completed and starts to edge down then gold will push up, so observing these two markets wave count would be helpful to get a feel of what’s happening

Oil WTI CFD: 85.35
The Elliott count has a top in place for Oil, but the evidence is required and 85(mTL5 Midpoint) as resistance is part of that evidence, because at the moment the price is retesting 85 this price point for support and the internal wave structure down from 87 to 85 is so far corrective in structure, three waves, in can turn into five wave (impulse) but its hasn’t has yet. If we did see five wave down, that would be evidence, we enough to consider the first short position and the short would be after the five waves down then the counter trend three waves back up abc and probably the failed retest of the 85, the second position would be once the price is locked under 82 then under 80. But for now 85 to 8450 is support and the trend is up in line with stock.

Base Metals

US Spot Prices (24HR in l/b)
US Copper:           Last: 3.98-
US Nickel:             Last: 9.65-
US Zinc:                Last: 0.97-
US Aluminium       Last: 1.06-

Copper CFD: 399
The main trend is down for copper and base metals, the support area around the 380 and the pattern above that is corrective, this pattern is much the same as stock, yes it can rally higher 410 – 420 (50/62%) or it can stay around the 400 but once its completed the trend will continue down and this will reflect in the Materials Sector on the ASX and China.

The above is analysis, from a trading point of view, you chose your time frame which naturally accommodates the distance of price and being on the right side of the closest largest number, as an example a trader that holds for a few days and wanted to go long he would need the 400 as support or short 400 as resistance, then building into the market on the next smaller degree of price the MinorLevels.

Forex

US Dollar CFD: 74.66
The Dollar and the Euro have been range bound, the better trends have been on other pairs. Once a market goes into a range bound pattern it’s natural to focus on other markets and forget about the non-moving range bound market, but you must keep an eye on it, because range bounce markets are like a spring slowly being loaded and when they are set to go they hardly require any volume what’s so ever to set them off, this is most common for triangles, but it’s true for many corrections, the early stages of a correction carries a lot of volume and the end of a correction doesn’t.
If the Dollar find support on 75 then trade long. the Euro has the range of 144 and 140, but that can be narrowed now to 142 and 143, either of these price levels as support or resistance should be the start of the set up and the first small position for that direction.

EURUSD 1.4246
TradingLevels: The Euro has two possible large daily wave counts and we have had the trading range of 1440 and 140, but this can now be narrowed to 142 and 143, when either of these becomes the support or the resistance we can look to find set ups in that direction
Trade Strategy: 143 as retested support for longs or 142 as retested resistance for short trade set up. Also using the 144 or the 140 as support or resistance to add positions.

AUDUSD 1.0353
TradingLevels: The rally pattern here is the same as the ASX200, SP500 etc.
Elliott Wave: The 38.2% retracement level price point is really pegging the market, that relates to the 104 or the SG2 10365 I 10372 I 10380
Trade Strategy: The 4 hour Robo may have you short soon. Friday Sat closing to Monday start is best avoided but you know that… If the 10372 can become support then the 104 has a chance of support. If not above the 10372 is the stop for the 4 hour Robo short.

If your scalping, 10, 20 or 30 points, then understand how to use the sublevels that is individually and as groups, SG1, Midpoint and SG2 and of course each full point. You will need to also understand the two basic patterns that occur at a level the overshoot and the classic pattern, understanding these will help you in understanding how support is developed and when to enter. I would be using this on a 2 minute chart for gleaning 10, 20 30 points, you can also use the two minute Robo to protect the trade when your trading from one level to the next, take profit at the next level then wait for support again. The MACD can be handy to help with the patterns at the levels to get the timing right, use the high low of each histogram bar, moving higher or lower a bit like the Robo method, not the line crossover

Indices

Dow Jones CFD 11,283
TradingLevels: The corrective rally is still in progress, the MediumLevel 11500 has been the target, but anywhere from the 38.2% 11,400 to 11650 is the likely target zone.
The trend down as a Wave 3 was thirteen days so a Fibo ratio for the Wave 4 rally would be 5 or 8 days, if the Wave 4 was going to get into a complicated affair but staying in the 11500 – 11650 range it could extend out to 21 days, we just have to wait and see what develops.
Elliott Wave: Wave 4
Trade Strategy: Short term traders would be looking at 11300 for support or resistance to trade long or short. The Dow works to each 100 points so should you.

S&P500 CFD: 1,180
TradingLevels: The Wave for rally target is the 38.2% around the 1200. If support is found here like the Dow at 11500 then we have to look higher to 1250, but lets just work with our main targets first 1200 on the SP and 11500 on the Dow
Trade Strategy: Let’s just see how much the price struggles at 1172 to 1200 a failed retest would create a short and that’s the set you can look for, even selling right on the 1200 keeping a tight stop

FTSE 100 CFD: 5320
TradingLevels: 5300 is the top of Minor Group1 so support on this level carries supportive weight, the 38.2% retracement level is around 5400, so if Wave 4 is going to be correct then we are likely to see 5300 fail as support, but perhaps we will see the price go to 5400, then come back and retest 5300 for support and fail…
Elliott Wave: Wave 4 is not completed, like other indices its simply doubling in size, the 5400 was the 38.2 % retracement level. Looking for five waves up from the last low, just below the 5000 for the Wave C up…
Trade Strategy: Depending you’re your trading time frame, scalpers would be looking for 5300 as the basis for support and trade up through the sublevels working SG1 of mTL3 (MinorLevel 5300) (SG1 5310, 5320, 5330) If support is found on 5330 then trade to 5350 the Midpoint

SPI CFD 4150
TradingLevels: The price will be looking for 4200 as the support? The trend from 3800 to 4100 was powerful, the trend from 4050 to 4200 is weak, it has created overlapping wave structures, this is a creeping corrective process. So we will stay with the whole move being a wave four. I would only change if the top of Minor Group 1 4300 offered a strong support.
Elliott Wave: In Wave c of the ABC Wave 4
Trade Strategy: Intraday traders on the long side need to wait for the price to develop a retested support either on 4200 or 4230 (top of SG1) What you have to watch out for is the 4200 not holding as support and a larger correction unfolding or the ABC as Wave 4 being completed. The volume each day in the trend up has been diminishing not expanding. If a short trade was to play out, look for the 4200 to have a retest as resistance for the first position the 4172 as a retested resistance for the second

Summary

It’s the same story as last week, we see these rallies in most indices as corrective, once completed the trend will continue down.
Targets, Dow 11400 – 11650 with 11500 being the centre of attention, the SP500 1200. ASX200 4300 if not lower as the volume is diminishing which is also probably coming in from off shore as the AUDUSD has the same pattern.

At what point should we be concerned.
If the ASX finds support on 4300. The Dow on 11500 and the SP500 on 1200.
It is fine for the price to trade above these price points but waiting to see if they find the support is the test. This is as simple as I can get it…

As mentioned the main trends down in the US appear to be impulse waves and the moves up corrective in their architecture, so the main trend for the US markets is down and I would expect the others like our to follow. This is fine as analysis but trading is another thing.

Trading, we track the market setting orders up in front of the market, to allow the market to trad for us, this takes the guesswork and the emotion out of the picture. What you have to do is get the money management working and the first step there is most people over trade, if you $3,000 you can trade 100 shares, this way you can stay in the game, it does not take long to build an account and the Robo method can do that for you, we have been doing that with CBA. Indices and Forex can be quick to take your money if you’re not working to a solid plan.

PS Check For ASX Ex Dividend & Reporting Dates

Trading Quote
"...our visual and decision environments are filtered to us courtesy of our eyes, our ears, our senses of smell and touch, and the master of it all, our brain. By the time we comprehend and digest information, it is not necessarily a true reflection of reality. Instead, it is our representation of reality, and this is the input we base our decisions on. In essence we are limited to the tools nature has given us, and the natural way in which we make decisions is limited by the quality and accuracy of these tools."

Today's Financial Events
Time     Currency   Detail     Forecast    Previous
9:01am GBP       Rightmove HPI m/m
9:50am JPY        Prelim GDP q/q    -0.6% -0.9%
9:50am JPY        Prelim GDP Price Index y/y    -1.7% -1.9%
11:30am AUD        New Motor Vehicle Sales m/m     1.3%
15th-16th CNY        Foreign Direct Investment ytd/y     18.4%
All Day EUR        French Bank Holiday
All Day EUR        Italian Bank Holiday
5:15pm CHF       PPI m/m    -0.5% -0.5%
10:30pm CAD        New Motor Vehicle Sales m/m   2.4% -6.1%
10:30pm USD        Empire State Manufacturing Index    0.8 -3.8
11:00pm USD        TIC Long-Term Purchases    30.4B 23.6B
Aug 16 12:00am USD        NAHB Housing Market Index    15 15
16th -19th GBP        Nationwide Consumer Confidence     51

NOTES:
1. Check the Dividend & Reporting section for your stock on this site before trading
2. Prices may change as this report is written while markets are closing/trading
3. Always think things out for yourself, we are only here to bounce ideas around.

Good Morning & Good Luck!

CFD Trading
Share Trading
Forex Trading

Trading Blog

EarlyBird Report 730AM - Shares CFD Forex Report

EarlyBird Report – 29 June

Dow Jones Index +1.21% 12,188 US Dollar Index -0.31% 75.04 US August Gold (Globex) 1500 WTI Oil (Globex) 92.80 Copper (Globex) 410 US BHP +2.22% 91.26 Base Metals: Positive AUDUSD 1.0540 EURUSD 1.4370 SPI 4520

US News Wire U.S. The energy and consumer-discretionary sectors led U.S. stocks higher following reports of progress in European leaders' Greek-debt negotiations.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average rose 120 points, or 1%, to 12164 in afternoon trade, with Caterpillar rising 3% and Home Depot adding 2.4%. The Standard & Poor's 500-stock index gained 13 points, or 1%, to 1293. The technology-oriented Nasdaq Composite rose 32 points, or 1.1%, to 2720.

Base Metals US Spot Prices (24HR in l/b) US Copper: Last: 4.09+ US Nickel: Last: 10.22+ US Zinc: Last: 1.01+ US Aluminium Last: 1.11+

FTSE 100 Futures 5750

SPI Futures 4471

At the end of the day the 4500 is the line in the sand and being above or below this swings the bias of the market, we know the markets are over sold, but we don’t know the extended of any rally that does take place. But we have to make some effort to move with the bias.

Trading Quote "To change emotional responses takes constant self-awareness, time, fundamental personal honesty, and the willingness to suffer the pain of letting something go that we feel is dear to us."

NOTES: 1. Check the Dividend & Reporting section for your stock on this site before trading 2. Prices may change as this report is written while markets are closing/trading 3. Always think things out for yourself, we are only here to bounce ideas around.

Good Morning & Good Luck!

Trading Quote

Trading Quote

CFD Trading Report - Gold Elliott Wave

CFD Report

ASX Stock Report

FTSE 100 Futures 6020

SPI Futures 4550

CFD Trading Report

ASX200 Elliott Wave Chart

ASX CFD Trading Report

TRADING REPORT

EarlyBird Report – 12 July

Dow Jones Index -1.20% 12,505 US Dollar Index +1.28% 75.98 US August Gold (Globex) 1553 WTI Oil (Globex) 95 Copper (Globex) 435 US BHP -2.72% 93.23 Base Metals: Softer AUDUSD 1.0755 EURUSD 1.4260 SPI 4500 ASX200 4582

Traders, we would like to inform you that content (Charts) published on FOREX GOLD SP500 OIL will not be updated from Friday July 1st to the July 15th 2011.

Oil WTI (Globex Futures) 95 Five waves down from the last high to 95, we should see a small abc across or up off 95 then another five waves down, following stock.

Base Metals US Spot Prices (24HR in l/b) US Copper: Last: 4.31- US Nickel: Last: 10.42- US Zinc: Last: 1.03- US Aluminium Last: 1.10-

AUDUSD TradingLevels: While the 108 (mTL8) and 10722 are in place the bias is bearish Elliott Wave: The 61.8% retracement is down around the 10550 Trade Strategy: If you are short from the 10750 then look to the 4 hr, Daily and Weekly Robo and a glass of red so you don’t get emotional

S&P500 CFDs 1,320 TradingLevels: The Dow at 12500 is the same as 1320 for the SP500 roughly the 38.2% retracement level. The move down can also be seen as an abc correction, three swings down, either way we should see short term support at 1320 Trade Strategy:

FTSE 100 Futures 5900

SPI Futures 4500

So 3 waves means up side and 5 waves means more down side….

Trading Quote "If you don't get what you want, it's a sign either that you did not seriously want it, or that you tried to bargain over the price." --Rudyard Kipling

NOTES: 1. Check the Dividend & Reporting section for your stock on this site before trading 2. Prices may change as this report is written while markets are closing/trading 3. Always think things out for yourself, we are only here to bounce ideas around.

Good Morning & Good Luck!

CFD Copper Report

14 July CFD Copper Report

STOCK REPORT

EarlyBird Report – 15 July

Dow Jones Index -0.44% 12,437 US Dollar Index +0.44% 75.28 US August Gold (Globex) 1585 WTI Oil (Globex) 9550 Copper (Globex) 436 US BHP -1.88% 92.27 Base Metals: Steady AUDUSD 1.07 EURUSD 1.4130 SPI 4550 ASX200 4490

Traders, we would like to inform you that content (Charts) published on FOREX GOLD SP500 OIL will not be updated from Friday July 1st to the July 15th 2011.

Base Metals US Spot Prices (24HR in l/b) US Copper: Last: 4.36- US Nickel: Last: 10.87+ US Zinc: Last: 1.05+ US Aluminium Last: 1.11=

Copper (Globex Futures) 436 Same, above 340 and base metals are stable. The pattern above 430 is being considered a wave four, in a minimum of three legs and once competed a new high, however this current third leg can and should test 433

Forex US Dollar Futures (c) DXY 7560 The reaction at 75 appears to be a trend changer, which is about right as mentioned yesterday, with the euro also pulling back the 618% around 143, any short term trading can be in the new direction. This would also line up with stock SP500…

FTSE 100 Futures 5860

SPI Futures 4450

The Forex Elliott Wave will be in full swing by Monday and a new ASX Elliott Wave section for charts is being developed

NOTES: 1. Check the Dividend & Reporting section for your stock on this site before trading 2. Prices may change as this report is written while markets are closing/trading 3. Always think things out for yourself, we are only here to bounce ideas around.

Good Morning & Good Luck! STOCK REPORT

EarlyBird Report – 14 July

Dow Jones Index +0.36% 12,491 US Dollar Index -1.18% 75.18 US August Gold (Globex) 1580 WTI Oil (Globex) 9660 Copper (Globex) 438 US BHP +1.93% 94 Base Metals: Steady AUDUSD 1.0750 EURUSD 1.42 SPI 4508 ASX200 4514

Traders, we would like to inform you that content (Charts) published on FOREX GOLD SP500 OIL will not be updated from Friday July 1st to the July 15th 2011.

Base Metals US Spot Prices (24HR in l/b) US Copper: Last: 4.35- US Nickel: Last: 10.83- US Zinc: Last: 1.06+ US Aluminium Last: 1.11+

FTSE 100 Futures 5860

SPI Futures 4500

NOTES: 1. Check the Dividend & Reporting section for your stock on this site before trading 2. Prices may change as this report is written while markets are closing/trading 3. Always think things out for yourself, we are only here to bounce ideas around.

Good Morning & Good Luck! STOCK REPORT

EarlyBird Report – 13 July

Dow Jones Index -0.10% 12,493 US Dollar Index +0.18% 76 US August Gold (Globex) 1565 WTI Oil (Globex) 9660 Copper (Globex) 438 US BHP -2.72% 93.23 Base Metals: Positive AUDUSD 1.06275 EURUSD 1.440 SPI 4470 ASX200 4495

Traders, we would like to inform you that content (Charts) published on FOREX GOLD SP500 OIL will not be updated from Friday July 1st to the July 15th 2011.

Base Metals US Spot Prices (24HR in l/b) US Copper: Last: 4.36+ US Nickel: Last: 10.55+ US Zinc: Last: 1.05+ US Aluminium Last: 1.10+

Copper (Globex Futures) 435 I still take the line, as long as the 425 430 are support the price pattern unfolding is a wave four, it still has another two swings but once completed should move up to 450. For short term traders the 440 is the supply and resistance point expect a turn here.

FTSE 100 Futures 5880

SPI Futures 4500

NOTES: 1. Check the Dividend & Reporting section for your stock on this site before trading 2. Prices may change as this report is written while markets are closing/trading 3. Always think things out for yourself, we are only here to bounce ideas around.

Good Morning & Good Luck! STOCK REPORT

EarlyBird Report – 12 July

Dow Jones Index -1.20% 12,505 US Dollar Index +1.28% 75.98 US August Gold (Globex) 1553 WTI Oil (Globex) 95 Copper (Globex) 435 US BHP -2.72% 93.23 Base Metals: Softer AUDUSD 1.0755 EURUSD 1.4260 SPI 4500 ASX200 4582

Traders, we would like to inform you that content (Charts) published on FOREX GOLD SP500 OIL will not be updated from Friday July 1st to the July 15th 2011.

Oil WTI (Globex Futures) 95 Five waves down from the last high to 95, we should see a small abc across or up off 95 then another five waves down, following stock.

Base Metals US Spot Prices (24HR in l/b) US Copper: Last: 4.31- US Nickel: Last: 10.42- US Zinc: Last: 1.03- US Aluminium Last: 1.10-

Dow Jones Index +1.21% 12,188
US Dollar Index -0.31% 75.04
US August Gold (Globex) 1500
WTI Oil (Globex) 92.80
Copper (Globex) 410
US BHP +2.22% 91.26
Base Metals: Positive
AUDUSD 1.0540
EURUSD 1.4370
SPI 4520

US News Wire
U.S. The energy and consumer-discretionary sectors led U.S. stocks higher following reports of progress in European leaders' Greek-debt negotiations.

Base Metals

US Spot Prices (24HR in l/b)
US Copper: Last: 4.09+
US Nickel: Last: 10.22+
US Zinc: Last: 1.01+
US Aluminium Last: 1.11+

Trading Quote
"To change emotional responses takes constant self-awareness, time, fundamental personal honesty, and the willingness to suffer the pain of letting something go that we feel is dear to us."

NOTES:
1. Check the Dividend & Reporting section for your stock on this site before trading
2. Prices may change as this report is written while markets are closing/trading
3. Always think things out for yourself, we are only here to bounce ideas around.

Dow Jones Index -1.20% 12,505
US Dollar Index +1.28% 75.98
US August Gold (Globex) 1553
WTI Oil (Globex) 95
Copper (Globex) 435
US BHP -2.72% 93.23
Base Metals: Softer
AUDUSD 1.0755
EURUSD 1.4260
SPI 4500
ASX200 4582

Oil WTI (Globex Futures) 95
Five waves down from the last high to 95, we should see a small abc across or up off 95 then another five waves down, following stock.

Base Metals

US Spot Prices (24HR in l/b)
US Copper: Last: 4.31-
US Nickel: Last: 10.42-
US Zinc: Last: 1.03-
US Aluminium Last: 1.10-

AUDUSD

TradingLevels: While the 108 (mTL8) and 10722 are in place the bias is bearish
Elliott Wave: The 61.8% retracement is down around the 10550
Trade Strategy: If you are short from the 10750 then look to the 4 hr, Daily and Weekly Robo and a glass of red so you don’t get emotional

S&P500 CFDs 1,320

TradingLevels:
The Dow at 12500 is the same as 1320 for the SP500 roughly the 38.2% retracement level.
The move down can also be seen as an abc correction, three swings down, either way we should see short term support at 1320
Trade Strategy:

Trading Quote
"If you don't get what you want, it's a sign either that you did not seriously want it, or that you tried to bargain over the price." --Rudyard Kipling

NOTES:
1. Check the Dividend & Reporting section for your stock on this site before trading
2. Prices may change as this report is written while markets are closing/trading
3. Always think things out for yourself, we are only here to bounce ideas around.

14 July
CFD Copper Report

Dow Jones Index -0.44% 12,437
US Dollar Index +0.44% 75.28
US August Gold (Globex) 1585
WTI Oil (Globex) 9550
Copper (Globex) 436
US BHP -1.88% 92.27
Base Metals: Steady
AUDUSD 1.07
EURUSD 1.4130
SPI 4550
ASX200 4490

Base Metals

US Spot Prices (24HR in l/b)
US Copper: Last: 4.36-
US Nickel: Last: 10.87+
US Zinc: Last: 1.05+
US Aluminium Last: 1.11=

Copper (Globex Futures) 436
Same, above 340 and base metals are stable. The pattern above 430 is being considered a wave four, in a minimum of three legs and once competed a new high, however this current third leg can and should test 433

Forex

US Dollar Futures (c) DXY 7560
The reaction at 75 appears to be a trend changer, which is about right as mentioned yesterday, with the euro also pulling back the 618% around 143, any short term trading can be in the new direction. This would also line up with stock SP500…

NOTES:
1. Check the Dividend & Reporting section for your stock on this site before trading
2. Prices may change as this report is written while markets are closing/trading
3. Always think things out for yourself, we are only here to bounce ideas around.

Good Morning & Good Luck!
STOCK REPORT

Dow Jones Index +0.36% 12,491
US Dollar Index -1.18% 75.18
US August Gold (Globex) 1580
WTI Oil (Globex) 9660
Copper (Globex) 438
US BHP +1.93% 94
Base Metals: Steady
AUDUSD 1.0750
EURUSD 1.42
SPI 4508
ASX200 4514

Base Metals

US Spot Prices (24HR in l/b)
US Copper: Last: 4.35-
US Nickel: Last: 10.83-
US Zinc: Last: 1.06+
US Aluminium Last: 1.11+

NOTES:
1. Check the Dividend & Reporting section for your stock on this site before trading
2. Prices may change as this report is written while markets are closing/trading
3. Always think things out for yourself, we are only here to bounce ideas around.

Good Morning & Good Luck!
STOCK REPORT

Dow Jones Index -0.10% 12,493
US Dollar Index +0.18% 76
US August Gold (Globex) 1565
WTI Oil (Globex) 9660
Copper (Globex) 438
US BHP -2.72% 93.23
Base Metals: Positive
AUDUSD 1.06275
EURUSD 1.440
SPI 4470
ASX200 4495

Base Metals

US Spot Prices (24HR in l/b)
US Copper: Last: 4.36+
US Nickel: Last: 10.55+
US Zinc: Last: 1.05+
US Aluminium Last: 1.10+

Copper (Globex Futures) 435
I still take the line, as long as the 425 430 are support the price pattern unfolding is a wave four, it still has another two swings but once completed should move up to 450.
For short term traders the 440 is the supply and resistance point expect a turn here.

NOTES:
1. Check the Dividend & Reporting section for your stock on this site before trading
2. Prices may change as this report is written while markets are closing/trading
3. Always think things out for yourself, we are only here to bounce ideas around.

Good Morning & Good Luck!
STOCK REPORT

Dow Jones Index -1.20% 12,505
US Dollar Index +1.28% 75.98
US August Gold (Globex) 1553
WTI Oil (Globex) 95
Copper (Globex) 435
US BHP -2.72% 93.23
Base Metals: Softer
AUDUSD 1.0755
EURUSD 1.4260
SPI 4500
ASX200 4582

Oil WTI (Globex Futures) 95
Five waves down from the last high to 95, we should see a small abc across or up off 95 then another five waves down, following stock.

Base Metals

US Spot Prices (24HR in l/b)
US Copper: Last: 4.31-
US Nickel: Last: 10.42-
US Zinc: Last: 1.03-
US Aluminium Last: 1.10-