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DayAhead Report 15 August

Market Analysis Summary

Thursday is on track as the bear day. The amount of selling volume today is key
Commodities – Positive. Gold look for tested support on SG1 1330
Forex – AUDUSD If the 0.9120 becomes the resistance build in a short trade adding under 91 otherwise the market will test SG2 9172 higher and if that is the case and this is followed by 9150 becoming the resistance then short from there.
Indices – All Indices are is negative mode for short term shorts
Stocks – Base and precious metals can help support the ASX, well at least reduce the selling volume.


Global Technical Analysis Report

Dow Jones 15,337 -0.73% 
SP500 1,685 -0.52%             
NASDAQ 3,129 -0.37%       
FSTE 6,587 -0.37%                
Base Metals Positive
US Spot Gold CFD 1332
US Spot Silver CFD 2170
Oil WTI CFD 106.50
US Copper CFD 333
US Corn CFD 462
US Dollar CFD 81.74
EURUSD 1.3256
AUDUSD 0.9139
US Bonds Sept 132.60
DJI CFD 15,344
S&P500 CFD 1685
FTSE 100 CFDs 6596 
DAX CFDs 8435
Shanghai Comp 2100
ASX 200 CFD 5150


Commodities Trading

US Spot Gold CFD 1332
TradingLevels: There is a bias that the corrective retracement is completed, it would be preferable for a solid tested support on 1330, which is the top of subgroup1 (SG1) support here sets the target for the next sublevel, the midpoint 1350.
Elliott Wave Zigzag abc 5-3-5 structure as Wave ii to 1315 has a bias of being completed, but be mindful that the leg down can also be one leg of three, a larger corrective pattern could emerge. 
Trading Strategy: The focus is a tested support on 1330. The price action can create the first high above the level 1330 and then have a small abc back in to 1228 – 1325 and then find support on 1330, essentially a test lower then support for the perfect timing. On a 1 to 3 minute chart you should be able to see support building on micro group1 which you can build the positions 1331|1332|1333 and then the midpoint 1335. Its best to get all positions in by then. Doing the same at 1340, but take a good chunk of profit at the 1350, then wait for support… 
On the flip side if 1325 becomes resistance, then a bearish bias is developing

US Spot Silver CFD 2170
Technical Analysis: Silver didn’t retrace like gold and the tested support on the midpoint 2150 was the long trade set up. Next support is SG2 2172 being the central figure as tested support adding on 2180 and expecting a larger Classic tradinglevel corrective pattern at 2200

Oil WTI CFD 106.50
Technical Analysis: Support is developing on 106.50 for long trades. Setting the next target at 108, expect profit taking. The trend is likely to move higher to 110 the first minor level (mTL1).  
Of course you will need to accommodate the smaller levels 107, 107.20 (72), 107.50, 107.72 (72)
Base Metals 

US Spot Prices (in l/b)
US Copper:           Last: 3.31+
US Nickel:             Last: 6.71+
US Zinc:                Last: 0.8680+
US Aluminium       Last: 0.8367+

US Copper CFD 333
Technical Analysis: Same - 330 is the top of minor group1 and 333 is the top of subgroup1, if the market develops support on 333 then that is the signal that the market has finished with 330. 
Elliott Wave: The pattern across 330 is very much the same as the pattern across 320. That would make a high Wave v above 340
US Corn CFD 462
Technical Analysis: The market moved lower out of SG2 480|472|465 and now the market is retesting SG2 465, this is normal when a market is moving lower, but in this case we are in the later stages of a Wave (iii) low 450 and looking for Wave (iv) retracement back to the wave four of one lesser degree just above 472
Elliott Wave: The Wave v of (iii) can be completed, and this would be confirmed if the market moves bank into SG2 above 645. If it cannot move into 465, then there is another low to 450 and then then bounce up.  We have and are working through to wave fours of different degrees, trading is not normally down in wave fours, simply because they tend to range sideways with overlapping wave structures. Wave fours tend to produce the most complicated corrective pattern out of the 12 Elliott corrective patterns, triangles, double zigzags etc. whereas wave two’s are simple and sharp 

Forex Trading
US Dollar CFD 81.74
TradingLevels:  Support SG2 8190|8172|8165 then 82.00. Expect a larger abc corrective pattern at 82.00 (mTL2) The 81.72 as support is what traders need to focus on.
Elliott Wave Wave four correction at SG2 8180|8172|8165, if the market drops lower than 81.65 then a larger correction is unfolding, but as it stand the corrective pattern is completed and the market should develop support on 8172 and move higher to 82.00

EURUSD 1.3256
TradingLevels: Intraday; Positive if the market develops support in Group2 13265|13272|13280 even support on the first level 13265 and especially on the 72 the 13272.  On the negative side if the midpoint 13250 develops as tested resistance then short.
Elliott Wave: two wave counts; first, five waves down from the 134 high to the current low, this means we can expect an abc corrective rally back up 40 - 62% i.e. 1.33.
Second, the 13250 becomes the resistance and the market drops from here

Trading Strategies: The 1.3272 is a line in the sand, but as tested support and resistance. Trading, 13250 as resistance for shorts and 13272 for longs to 133

AUDUSD 0.9139
TradingLevels: The 9150 – 9180 targets are developing, the 9172 is the more probable at the moment
Elliott Wave: the abc rally is maturing and can be completed or another high as Wave c will have five waves
Trading Strategies: Negative; If the 9120 becomes the resistance, that is the pivot with SG1 then the bias is lower and look for short trades, but don’t overdo it while the market is above 91.
Positive; If support is found on the midpoint 9150 then look to 9172 but this can be the top of wave b, if however the 9172 develops as support then you need to trade what you see and build another long trade in through 9172 and 9180 as support.


10 Year US Treasury Yield 2.71 (TNX/ EOD Price)
TradingLevels: The market is leaving the 250 mediumlevel and moving into group2 265|272|280 this is positive.
Elliott Wave:  Wave v) up to the next level 2.80 (mTL8)
US Bonds Sept 132.60
TradingLevels: Expect a corrective bounce off the 132. This market is sitting on SubGroup1 133|132|131 (SG1) the market is developing lower highs over the last month, this is a sign of weakness and soon the pivot within Group1 the 132 will change from support to resistance, once this occurs the market is then trapped like a fly in a web, its trapped to 130 the closet largest number, which also happens to be the top of Minor Group1 130|120|110 (MG1) and the 120 is the pivot with that degree of structure
Elliott Wave: Triangle, now maturing lower into Wave (d) the bounce will be Wave (e) and then new lows will be made...
Indices Trading

TradingLevels: The DJ has more negative price action than the SP, it is the one to short.
Expect a bounce off the 15,300 the top of MinorGroup1 (MG1)
The supply level has move down from 15,500 to, well 15,400 has been retested yet, but the 15,430 area is the likely next supply level as resistance then 15,400 then 15,350.
Elliott WaveJust use the wave structure within each 100 points, such as; the move down from 15450 to 15,353 is in five waves and it appears the abc rally is starting with the first resistance at SG2 15,372 Which is probably the wave four, from the larger move down from 15,500
Trading Strategies: While the market is under 15,500 the bias is negative and you would look for short trades rather than long trades.
Short failed retests or sell new lows, just be mindful of the levels if front of you, you want the biggest price point behind you.
S&P500 CFD 1685
: The next level as the target is 1680 then 1672|75
Elliott Wave: Bearish
Trading Strategies: The 1690 as tested resistance was the short trade set up, next is 1685 then 1680

FTSE 100 CFDs 6596 
: Shorting from the 6620 as resistance and shorting from the 6600 as resistance then the 6580 and 6572. Target 6500
Elliott Wave: Wave b completed and Wave c lower. Only wrong if 6630 develops support
 CFDs 8435
TradingLevels: 8420 as tested resistance is a sign of weakness to short to 8400 This move lower can be wave four, with wave five to move higher
Shanghai Comp 2100
Corrective pattern at 2100 (mTL1) 

ASX 200 CFD 5150 
TradingLevels: A top in place or a larger corrective pattern as wave four back 38.2% 5125 
Day Trading Strategy: Thursday, is bear day. 5150 as resistance short to 5130

There are just four kinds of bets. There are good bets, bad bets, bets that you win, and bets that you lose. Winning a bad bet can be the most dangerous outcome of all, because a success of that kind can encourage you to take more bad bets in the future, when the odds will be running against you. You can also lose a good bet, no matter how sound the underlying proposition, but if you keep placing good bets, over time, the law of averages will be working for you.-Larry Hite
Definition of 'Fair Value'
1. The estimated value of all assets and liabilities of an acquired company used to consolidate the financial statements of both companies.
2. In the futures market, fair value is the equilibrium price for a futures contract. This is equal to the spot price after taking into account compounded interest (and dividends lost because the investor owns the futures contract rather than the physical stocks) over a certain period of time.

Today's Financial Events Australian Time AEST

8:30am            NZD    Business NZ Manufacturing Index
11:00am          AUD    MI Inflation Expectations
15th-19th         CNY    Foreign Direct Investment ytd/y
All Day                        EUR    French Bank Holiday
All Day                        EUR    Italian Bank Holiday
6:30pm           GBP    Retail Sales m/m
10:15pm          USD    FOMC Member Bullard Speaks
10:30pm         USD    Core CPI m/m
                        USD    Unemployment Claims

                        USD    CPI m/m
                        USD    Empire State Manufacturing Index
11:00pm          USD    TIC Long-Term Purchases
11:15pm          USD    Capacity Utilization Rate
                        USD    Industrial Production m/m
12:00am          USD    Philly Fed Manufacturing Index
                        USD    NAHB Housing Market Index
12:30am          CAD    BOC Review
                        USD    Natural Gas Storage

1. Check the ASX Dividend & Reporting check the company financial calendar before trading
2. Prices may change as this report is written while US markets are trading
3. Always think things out for yourself, we are only here to bounce ideas around.

Happy Analysing!


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